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Nothing new because the Governor has projected negative growth this year and flat next year.
Next!
David; Look at Table 1 – Economic Performance, in the document; “Analysis of Barbados’ current economic performance”.
To a layman like myself most of the data there appears to be trending in the wrong direction and therefore seems to be a bit at variance with the Governor’s upbeat confidence-instilling explanatory commentary.
I also wonder why the figures for the first quarter, ending in March 2014, are not available for the report over a month after the end of that quarter.
I am however looking forward to reading the comments on the report by the Professionals in the area as to what this report really captures about the current state of the economy and what it portends for all of us in the coming year or so.
LOLLOL !!! OMG!!! Thaz right!!!
@Are-we-there-yet
What is there to discuss? It is the same old discussion.
For BU the key points 1). international reserves remain par with end of 2013 despite borrowings which been forex generation is negative and 2) growth in 2015 is hinged to tourism. Scary!
Barbados is in the incapable hands of the Dems.Nothing new here and there is little point in commenting or offering opinions.Meanwhile Nero Worrell plays and fiddles with his small cars and rumour has it that Froon busy writing his”memoirs”.When Nero says the economy’s negative growth was 0.4%,read that to mean at least 2%,and when he says unemployment increased by 0.1%,read that to mean unemployment is in the region of 16%.With all the layoffs prior to March ’14,unemployment should have increased significantly.
The truth is that one cannot believe one word spoken by the DLP cabinet nor any of its advisers.Jepter the Physical was on DLPTV tonight boasting that Barbados was next to Venezuela in improving its prospects for loans on the capital market.Such idiocy and not in sinc with the real world.
The possibility of Barbados defaulting on its debt is still in the region of 50% and we know the state of Venezuela’s prospects for stability in the near term.
David:
Every facet of the economy is trending downwards. There seems to be no indication of any recovery; how then could the Governor project positive growth of 2% and upwards in the next two years. what is the basis for his assumptions?
Or is he now believing his own propaganda?
Even arrivals from T$T is down by 21%. Mr Governor something is really wrong!
The Minister of Fine Ants is a magician and a clown, someone needs to point him in the direction of the circus. Sinckler and Worrell reminds me of the movie Dumb and Dumber.
The unemployment rate is still 11.7%?
How comes a CBB first quarter report coming five weeks after the quarter ended is still giving figures for 2013?
After the advertised 2800 hundred sent home, plus the 392 at end of December, plus those who have been sent home all during 2013 after their temporary status was defined by the PM, plus all those sent home in the private sector…………..you mean to tell me that the unemployment rate is still 11.7%.
Give me a break. It is time for the government to stop lying. On Sunday night when I saw “buffulo bill” resurfaced on DLPTV telling lies as usual, I said, watch the governor must be bringing bad news and he is coming out front spinning. Talk about being true to form!
May be Worrel is saying to lesser mortals like all of us to believe him ” I am an economist”.
@Lemuel
Agree that almost all of the economic indicators point south. As the behaviour economists will tell you confidence by consumers in any economy is important for success. So far the private sector seems not to have bought into governments program if you read the BCCI website and with the burden of more taxes disposal income is being dried up; this will always have implication for domestic activity and growth especially given the nature of the local economy.
Every one got a vote today, No one can be more wrong than the DBLP in the report, More lies from Crooks , liars and scumbags , getting fat and fatter.cant wait to see how they move things better right before the next elections ,
Purely from a tourism perspective, it has to be pointed out that the first quarter of 2014 recorded the lowest number of long stay visitors for 7 years and the second lowest for TEN years. Also there is differential with the figures. The BSS state there were 148,588 long stay visitors in the first quarter of 2014, while the Central Bank state there were 148,882. Without accurate figures further analysis is almost meaningless.
@Adrian
Give the Governor a chance to explain. Hopefully a discerning reporter will ask about the backup plan to the failed floating of the 500 billion bond.
Adrian Loveridge “The BSS state there were 148,588 long stay visitors in the first quarter of 2014, while the Central Bank state there were 148,882. Without accurate figures further analysis is almost meaningless”
The difference in the figures above is 294.
That is less than point 2 percent.
BBs!
Do we REALLY need to hear the governor to know that we are in duck’s guts? Shiite man…..we are sending home low paid workers ….
Does ANYONE really think he would tell the truth anyhow???
….ya mean it is not OBVIOUS that he will try to put the best possible spin on the situation….even if it is clearly sounding ridiculous?
Unemployment figures shiite…..years ago they set up that measure to be meaningless……claiming to count ONLY those actively looking for work…..
….so who in their right mind would be “looking for work” in an environment where government is sending home NCC workers who clean up the nasty place for a few hundred dollars a week…?
Bushie is surprised that unemployment is not given as 4% or some shiite now……
When wunna plan to wake up and smell the roses….? …and stop dreaming about a return to “plenty” …….and start looking for the REAL meaning of life?….. When wunna see Freundel crying pon TV?
@ Prodigal Son | May 6, 2014 at 10:26 PM |
It seems the lying MoF has again rescheduled his list of projects to jumpstart the Bajan economy. The Cruise ship terminal, Pierhead marina, Sugar cane factory and industry were all scheduled to have started in December 2013 & January 2014. The poor fella cannot tell his elbow from his fat arse.
Has he, by the way, mentioned anything about the Four Seasons project which seems to be suffering from a bad case of Tutankhamun’s curse? The reopening of that concrete tomb also was supposed to have kick-started the economy since 2012.
Read between the lines and see the message buried in the Governor’s report.
If I were you, Prodigal, I would be preparing myself for a serious haircut this year by a barber called IMF.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/thai-prime-minister-yingluck-shinawatra-ordered-step-down-n98961
Maybe we should send some of our lawyers to Thailand to find out how it is done!!
The Bushman said:
“Does ANYONE really think he would tell the truth anyhow???
….ya mean it is not OBVIOUS that he will try to put the best possible spin on the situation….even if it is clearly sounding ridiculous?”
Enough said…lol
@ millertheanunnaki | May 7, 2014 at 9:26 AM |
“It seems the lying MoF has again rescheduled his list of projects to jumpstart the Bajan economy. The Cruise ship terminal, Pierhead marina, Sugar cane factory and industry were all scheduled to have started in December 2013 & January 2014. The poor fella cannot tell his elbow from his fat arse.”
Mr. Miller, we need to get real and stop letting these fellows take us for a ride. These projects will require funding from foreign or local investors. The recent downgrades and loss of confidence in the economy have caused foreign investors to be somewhat cautious. Maybe this is a reason why those attractive investment measures were extended to Sandals.
There are certain factors that will inhibit local investment, such as the budget deficit. For the past few years the government has been running a large budget deficit. A deficit requires an increase in borrowing, and the government has turned to the private sector, through the loanable funds market (banks and financial institutions [i.e. the debt is locally owned]) and the issuing of bonds. Hence, the demand for loanable funds no longer represents household and firms, but includes the government as well.
When the government borrow from the loanable funds market to finance its debt, this increases the cost of borrowing to firms and households i.e. the equilibrium interest rate increases, thereby reducing consumption and investment (the crowding out effect). It is also interesting to note that in the current economic environment, high taxes, inflation, lay-offs and reduced working hours have had an inverse effect on income, thereby reducing savings.
Consequently, at higher interest rates, the private sector will refrain from investing due to the high price of loans, which ultimately leads to slow down in the economy, as growth occurs at a slower rate.
@ Artaxerxes | May 7, 2014 at 11:18 AM |
You have just painted a scenario that depicts just one outcome.
A drastic cut in the standard of living of most Bajans. Even those with secured incomes denominated in foreign currencies like the pound sterling (£) or US $ might find it difficult to access goods and services that have to be paid for in hard currency at the national level.
What is of major concern is the lack of moral compunction which the Minister of Finance seems so comfortable to display. How can he lie and deceive so consistently a people that like to see themselves as ‘educated’, even if not intelligent?
Weren’t the naive people like ac told last year that the financing for both the cruise terminal and sugar factor was already finalized and in place?
What ought to be of immediate concern bordering on emergency is how the government is financing its fiscal deficit on current the account.
The IMF has raised a red flag about the printing of money by the Central Bank and the abuse of the NIS piggybank.
In light of falling tax revenues how is the government going to manage to finance that stubborn deficit and meet it statutory commitments like salaries and moral obligations like pensions and transfers to statutory agencies and sub-agencies?
@Artax
The reality of the local market is the foreign banks will not take on too much sovereign risk unless the Trini banks step up.
Excellent posts, millertheanunnaki and Artaxerxes.
The governor said in the 12.30 news that he knows what he is doing, it is a medium term strategy! This man exudes no confidence at all! We are doomed.
@ millertheanunnaki
This administration did not anticipate that the recession would have been long term, which has been indicative by the amount of largesse that was expended during their first two to three years in office. Consequently, their macroeconomic policies were inadequate and may have made the recession worse. The government’s current fiscal policies of significant reductions in expenditure and increased taxes are pro-cyclical. Their quest for fiscal tightening may adversely affect the prospects for recovery and a risk exacerbating public debt, especially since the economy remains weak.
During the question and answer session after his presentation, “Policies for Stabilisation in Very Small Economies”, Dr. Worrell told the audience that Barbados uses fiscal adjustment policies to manage aggregate demand and control foreign exchange.
As we know, aggregate demand is the total is the total demand for final goods and services in the economy at a particular time. In the current economic environment, fiscal policy will affect aggregate demand, the distribution of wealth, and the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services. In the short run, changes in spending or taxing can alter both the magnitude and the pattern of demand for goods and services.
In the long run, this aggregate demand affects the allocation of resources and the productive capacity of an economy through its influence on the returns to factors of production, the development of human capital, the allocation of capital spending and investment.
@ David:
“Nothing new because the Governor has projected negative growth this year and flat next year.
Next!”
It seems that we have not really understood the message behind what happened to the Barbados economy over twenty years ago. Owen Arthur’s overhead quick fix was not It! But we seem to be still in tha mindset.
Why don’t you people go back and read George Reid’s piece “1991 And All That…”?
Do you want him to write a postscript? Turning an economy around is a little different from playing a cricket match!! It is not a game, which, at the end of the day one team wins, and the other loses, unless there is a draw, aided by bad weather which washes out play. Oh yes, I just remember that in Jamaica, a draw was declared (in Antigua too) because the pitch, and/or the grounds were unsuitable for play.
In this zero sum society of ours, where productivity continues to fall, and everyone has a net-present-value mentality, fundamental change will not come until we really hit the bottom of the fan.
Let us fix the problems that can be fixed, and learn to live with those which cannot!!
@ Prodigal Son | May 7, 2014 at 12:41 PM |
How can you trust a person who claims he has his hands on the forex pulse and on a daily basis knows of the outflows and inflows yet last year this time the same smart Aleck was unable to account for the $300 million that went astray over some esoteric 3 months period?
The man is just a bleeding liar and incompetent fool. An oblong square peg in a screw hole.
Sorry to say this about your beloved guv, but he is just a real dumbass joker that will be the lightning rod to the country’s monetary explosion which would incinerate the Bajan dollar making it the laughing stock in the basket of Caribbean currencies.
@millertheanunnaki | May 7, 2014 at 1:32 PM |
@ Prodigal Son | May 7, 2014 at 12:41 PM |
“How can you trust a person who claims he has his hands on the forex pulse and on a daily basis knows of the outflows and inflows yet last year this time the same smart Aleck was unable to account for the $300 million that went astray over some esoteric 3 months period?
The man is just a bleeding liar and incompetent fool. An oblong square peg in a screw hole.
Sorry to say this about your beloved guv, but he is just a real dumbass joker that will be the lightning rod to the country’s monetary explosion which would incinerate the Bajan dollar making it the laughing stock in the basket of Caribbean currencies.”
You seem to be a master of single factor analysis. I personally feel that DW/GCBB is more sinned against than sinning. Although I would certainly agree that some of his recent comments do not appear to fit into the traditional role of a Central Bank Governor. But Delisle has never been afraid to speak his mind, unlike some of us who seem to believe that doing so would leave a mindless space. Anyway our Governor has always been a maverick, at heart!!
Who would you propose to replace him? Nor Dr. My-ass-cull!
@ David
“The reality of the local market is the foreign banks will not take on too much sovereign risk unless the Trini banks step up.”
A very good point… but remember the Trinidadian banks, most financial institutions and insurance companies are owned by a Trinidadian private sector that has made investments in or taken over a significant amount of our wholesale and retail sectors. Their lack of confidence in the local economy has not seen an expansion of business operations to create jobs and boost the economy, but an amalgamation or complete closure of businesses, which leads to a reduction of staff.
They then sought to streamline their wholesale sector by utilizing the Caricom treaties to import cheap Trinidadian products, and using their retail sector to flood the local market with these products. This will ultimately affect our economy while their productive sectors will experience growth at our expense.
In a nut shell the Trinidadians own our homes through mortgages and as collateral held on bank loans, our furniture through initial hire purchase agreements, and our cars through notes held by the institutions such as Consolidated Finance.
As such it is highly unlikely that the Trinidadian financial sector in Barbados will take on the too much sovereign risk.
@ L Harper
“Do you want him to write a postscript? Turning an economy around is a little different from playing a cricket match!!”
Yes, this may be true…. But let’s look at this entire scenario in context. The government did not anticipate this protracted economic recession, and embarked on a policy of largesse at a time when fiscal prudence would have been required. Take the months prior to the 2013 general elections as an example; on the back of running a high deficit, the government employed hundreds of people at the various statutory corporations. Now we are seeing the repercussions of this action, in that those who were previously employed are paying the ultimate price of losing their jobs as well.
David | May 7, 2014 at 12:29 PM |
“The reality of the local market is the foreign banks will not take on too much sovereign risk unless the Trini banks step up.”
The Canadian banks’ risk management criteria are set by Toronto; and, while they may be concerned about share of market, they will not lower their risk profile to defend against Trinis or anybody else.
@ L. Harper | May 7, 2014 at 1:49 PM |
Let me put it this way.
There is no need for a Central Bank with its present setup of a copy cat regulated economy of the 70’s.
Secondly, anyone with a modicum of commonsense, a clearly understood communicator with a sound knowledge of the macro economy and the appreciation of the workings of the financial system both locally and internationally can be the guv.
After all, he is just the creature of the MOF. So if the MoF is an idiot and liar why should the guv be any different other than a reflection of his creator.
What is required at this stage is a MoF who has commonsense and a political inclination more towards the truth and concern for his country. Then he or she can choose a person who could reflect those intrinsic qualities.
Who controls the fiscal and monetary policy narrative in Barbados, the MoF, Governor or some other person?
David:
Good question, but it should also ask what is the agenda behind the narrative. Remember a narrative is only a tool of persuasion. Can every one be so wrong or is the Governor and the MoF in touch with the late Granville or do they have a genie in a bottle?
@Lemuel
An agenda riddled narrative will be exposed by time therefore we have to conclude what?
Listen.I will not say this another time as I have said it last year.The IMF has mandated that the Ministry of Finance cease to influence the policy direction and management of the Central Bank of Barbados.
It is very likely that Barbados will see a devaluation of its currency to the old level of the ECCB,and that the ECCB will issue that currency as the currency of the realm of the OECS and Barbados.The Barbados dollar will cease to exist probably within 2 years.
The only way to avoid this scenario if for Bajans to wake up,chase away the demons called the DLP and insist on a new government and new rules of governance so that we do not fall back into the unholy mess as exists.
@ Gabriel
“It is very likely that Barbados will see a devaluation of its currency to the old level of the ECCB, and that the ECCB will issue that currency as the currency of the realm of the OECS and Barbados.”
It may be nothing to be alarmed about, but this afternoon on Brass tacks, a Guyanese called to ask if the Barbados dollar was devalued. He said that the dollar was trading at BD$1 = GUY$201; with subsequent decreases, it went to GUY$198, to GUY$196.
good to hear that in the area of energy where there is a lots of foreign exchange leakage …..that there is more usage of solar power,,,,,,,,the energy bill which is a continuing drain on the barbados economy and a minus to our high and growing deficit would be contained when all measures are fully taken one of which is solar in helping to bring barbados energy cost down dramatically which will put barbados on a positive and sustainable course ,,, staving off high fuel prices which in turn would give barbados industries and manufacturing a better chance of competing in open markets as they recover savings once used for high fuel cost and putting those savings to better use
@ ac
Yaaaaawn!!!
Only a partisan hack like ac can see positives in this dismal report.
What is clear is that this inept incompetent government has Barbadians under their thumb and they know that people are afraid of this government. With the willing compliance of the unions, the governor can boast today…….thousands have gone home and there are no riots, no demonstrations in the streets. Unions I hope you feel happy tonight.
This idle boast from a governor whose policies have resulted in thousands losing their jobs…………because make no bones, this governor runs Barbados’ economy as the MOF is an idiot. This governor who up to recent CBB reports had an entertainment budget of over one million dollars, gets a catered lunch each day………..can announce without a hint of regret that 2800 have laid off who do not know where their next meal will come from.
I read someone wrote above of the excellent job this governor is doing……….really? You think only this delusional 70 plus year man can manage this economy but proceeded to insult Dr Mascoll?
With supporters like you, no wonder we are in this mess!
Drumroll as we await with bated breath for Lords of Mouths miller
Artaxerxes, and prodigal to announce policies to return Barbados to robust economic growth by December 2014. Stoops, it looks as if we will be waiting until the twelfth of never on these useless jokers.
Keeping it real | May 7, 2014 at 8:23 PM |
You inept incompetent Dems are doing a fantastic job all by yourselves. Keep on doing what you are doing, you do not need our help…….never forget you all shouted across the floor to us………..”now is we time, wunnah had 14 years, any ideas wunnah got, keep to wunnah selves, we doing things we way”.
So no ideas from us now, we are tired offering ideas, tired of you lying people! You are doing a fine job keeping Barbados’ economy in a permanent state of depression and on a sustained path of no growth for six years and no growth for the next year too. Good job “les incompetents”!
Interesting to learn Mark Maloney is the person who negotiated the three year contract with Top Gear.
David
What’s so interesting about that?
Interesting to see we have industrious and patriotic citizens still around willing to do for the good of the country. The Governor seems very impressed.
Keeping it real | May 7, 2014 at 8:23 PM
“Drumroll as we await with bated breath for Lords of Mouths miller Artaxerxes, and prodigal to announce policies to return Barbados to robust economic growth by December 2014. Stoops, it looks as if we will be waiting until the twelfth of never on these useless jokers.”
I don’t know about Miller and Prodigal, but I appreciate the vote of confidence you have given me “to announce policies to return Barbados to robust economic growth by December 2014”.
I know your frustration and feel your pain…..because after failed budgetary proposals, non-implementation of polices, and two failed medium term strategies (Delisle is the one that informed us) has left this administration struggling to cope with this recession.
Six years have passed and this administration has not been able to cope with the challenges of this protracted economic crisis. As such, I have to agree your statement: “it looks as if we will be waiting until the twelfth of never on these useless jokers.”
However, you could have used another word in describing the DLP instead of using “useless jokers”.
The real problem with Barbados is the large number of BBs who, in the face of devastating NATIONAL chaos, can do no better than establish two jackass camps of BLP and DLP, and spend what little reasoning ability they possess picking at each other – while the boat ON WHICH THEY ARE ALL MAROONED, flounders helplessly.
One would think that by now these brazen bowls would have settled down to the COMMON objective of stabilizing the boat FIRST, and then (once a future was assured) arguing about who should be captain.
Both of the BB camps played key roles in the current state of the ship Barbados. Both are populated with high level jackasses. BOTH have hired even more stupid jackasses and placed them into CRITICAL – now non-functional positions….
Most are openly dishonest
Some have huge credibility issues – Mascoll being the poster boy here, moving seamlessly from leadership of one camp to deputy leadership of the other while smoothly reversing ALL his ‘strongly held’ positions….
Is it any wonder that Barbados is in junk status – and sinking….?
The place is just one big brass bowl warehouse……
Can there be at least ONE topic where bloggers can concentrate on what is OVERALL best for the country…rather that for their own shiite party…? …..and where those who CAN’T do so – just BUTT OUT!!!
Steupsss! ….YOU first ac…..
It is substantially clear that TAXATION continues to do catastrophic, and in many senses irreparable, damage to the political economy and services industry sectors of Barbados.
The fact that the political economy and services industry sectors have been experiencing their seventh successive year of depression so far is partly explained by the very destructive widespread effects of TAXATION on the remuneration sectors and by extension the commercial industrial sectors in this country.
It is this evil wicked TAXATION system of government that has been – to a substantial extent – bringing about lesser and lesser growth in the remuneration sectors of this country.
It is this evil wicked TAXATION system of government that has been – to a substantial extent – bringing the amount of remunerations that are being generated at this stage closer and closer to the amount of money that is available to the public.
PDC
@ Artaxerxes
“Yes, this may be true…. But let’s look at this entire scenario in context. The government did not anticipate this protracted economic recession, and embarked on a policy of largesse at a time when fiscal prudence would have been required. Take the months prior to the 2013 general elections as an example; on the back of running a high deficit, the government employed hundreds of people at the various statutory corporations. Now we are seeing the repercussions of this action, in that those who were previously employed are paying the ultimate price of losing their jobs as well.”
I think that your perspective is sadly deficient. “Fiscal prudence” is not something that can be turned on or off like tap water, which, incidentally has failed to flow under both administrations, and when it has dripped niggardly into some localities has been of the brownish colour suggestive of a heavy admixture of feces. All this talk about FP seems to be lacking a couple of “o”s in between. But what appears to have happened is that Ossie Moore Arthur allowed the systems and procedures that were painfully put in place post-1991 to slip. He indulged in massive off-budget financing, and created a number of unnecessary institutions without competent human resource complements. And this took place even though the RHOSA was fond of saying that “problems could not be solved by throwing institutions at them”
Another of Arthur’s mantras was that Barbados needed to be guided by a long-term strategic plan, which was eventually produced, warts and all, towards the end of his third term. One of the component strategies of that plan, which was authored by Courtney Blackman, but which was actually suppressed since it was highly politically charged, called for stabilization of public sector employment at the level obtaining after the 1991 rif. By contrast, it has been shown that some 3000 persons had been added to the GoB’s payroll by 2003. The work of the Committee which produced the framework for the 2007 Public Service Act confirms this.
In addition, in an IMF paper in 2005 Ratna Sahay drew attention to the looming problem of burgeoning public sector deficits and debt overhang, and identified Barbados as the World’s twenty-fifth (25th) largest debtor. At that time pre-PhD econometric modelling LOTO Clyde Mascoll failed to give cognizance to these problems, and when he went over to the other side for his mess of potage he certainly could not spit in the soup!!. Is it surprising, then, that the late lamented DJHT who frankly declared that he had little time for hard economics failed to run a tight ship when he took over? Maybe he should have done a survey on the condition of the vessel, and should have obtained the most recent Admiralty charts, or he could have sung: “Lead kindly light amidst the uncertain gloom”… But that was not his nature!
Another problem is that the public service choir has eschewed the importance of practicing their descants. They have picked up a new hymnal which provides for accrual accounting, but the milk is being choked off by a BRA which is so tight that it does not permit the baby to get at the bubbies. So what we have is a posr-partum mum, who caan nurse she chile!! Tell me how wunnah still expect Buhbadus to grow!!
@ L. Harper | May 8, 2014 at 2:02 AM
Wow…..What the hell was that?
Thanks for informing me that my “perspective is sadly deficient”.
As you may have realized, I’m not as educated as you are. As such, I have experienced some difficulty trying to comprehend what you wrote.Your reply read like a clip from an old British movie filled with sultry clichés.
Are you by any chance Waldo Ramsay…or Freundel’s speech writer?
BU does not only cater to person’s as esteemed as yourself, but to us lessor mortals as well.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.