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NNP charges artificial economic growth

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Submitted Kemar Stuart, NNP Leader, Author Alternate Views Barbados Economic Road to Republic 

The Barbados economy reported 2.5 growth which can be described as non-performative or artificially inflated growth as the majority of our sectors underperformed with the exception of a few which recorded minor increases in overall financial contribution to the country. Alarmingly the central bank is reporting a 134% increase in the use of monetary easing or in simple terms printing money to fuel growth. The Central Bank of Barbados financed government operations to the tune of $623 Million in June 2025 up from $270 M  for the entire year of  2024. This is very concerning. 

This $623 Million is the highest recorded level of CBB financial support of government operations since the financial year 2017-2018 recorded at $1.6 Billion when Chris Sinckler was Minister of Finance. 

To break down the GDP performance by sector, Tourism recorded a surplus of 33.2 M , construction 14.3 M and business & other services 67.7 M. These are supposedly being used as leaders in growth measurements.

Tourism arrivals continue to be overstated as the 472K figure recorded for cruise passengers was led by 34.8% increase in-transit cruise arrivals. The overall number of actual cruise calls declined by 21 which shows that less cruise ships are using Barbados as a call port. Air to sea transfers inflated visitor arrivals to 395 K visitors. Despite these record tourist arrival numbers the revenue collected was overall minor 33.2 Million

The government is depending on future price increases as the continued attempts to fuel organic growth are failing. As taxation is charged as a percentage of prices with the society. Any increase in prices will benefit government tax revenue without them having to work hard to drive investment led growth. Price increases are the easiest and laziest way for the government to keep afloat financially.

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63 responses to “NNP charges artificial economic growth”

  1. David Avatar
    David

    @Artax

    Use the ubiquitous technology, drones, cameras, cellphones. Awareness campaigns to encourage people to buy from licensed vendors. We could mention improve policing but the blogmaster is not hopeful.

  2. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Boss…
    Problems are NEVER solved by just ‘applying policies’.

    This is particularly not so, in this 2025 world of AI, instant communications, and of unrivaled evil and wickedness.
    Problems are solved by
    – firstly having the wisdom to grasp the ROOT causes;
    – identifying appropriate fixes;
    – building consensus ,
    – and then finally implementing proper processes.

    The idea that there are a set of ‘correct answers’ somewhere to be found for any particular problem, which can then just implemented …is a red herring.

    Problem Solving is an EXACTING SCIENCE, and it is notoriously NOT within the purview of politicians, lawyers or economists…

    Bushie would have thought that our 11+ Exam dilemma made that point OVER and OVER…among numerous other SIMPLE issues.

    So the use of ‘ubiquitous technology, drones, cameras, cellphones’ is MUCH more likely to FURTHER complicate the scourge of praedial larceny, than it is to REDUCE it.
    Once the drones start flying around, Bushie fully expects that the crooks will bring out a “night-time-harvesting-drone” that will allow them to then steal remotely…

    In SIMPLE terms.
    We would need wise, honest, fearless and righteous LEADERSHIP – making decisions at the National level, if we are to see ANY solutions to the myriad of problems that we face.

    …so our ass is grass.

  3. David Avatar
    David

    @Bush Tea

    While prevention interventions must be implemented, in the meantime detection and other enforcement measures must as well. We have to be able to walk and chew gum.

  4. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Absolutely right Boss!!
    Our police do a creditable job at that (Brassbados is a SMALL place…)

    But what is the point of detecting and enforcing – only to have the scum released on bail in time to make the new hauls needed to pay the little fine levied by the Judge (while dropping some witty wisecrack)?
    What is the point, if it CONTINUES to be worthwhile for lazy bums to lurk around to reap what they REFUSE to sow?

    WISDOM, honest love for the country, FEARLESS RIGHTEOUSNESS at the highest levels …or our donkeys will languish in the tall grass…

    In sum:
    Idiots CANNOT successfully run complex operations… it goes AGAINST nature.
    Recall CLICO?
    If we continue to entertain idiotic, dishonest, unrighteous leaders, we will CONTINUE to suck salt.

  5. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    @ David

    There has been an INCREASED level of praedial larceny complaints in Barbados, and the region, by extension.

    Why? What is the ‘root cause’ for this illegal activity?

    Obviously, there is a THRIVING BLACK MARKET in Barbados for stolen agricultural produce and livestock, simply because increasing numbers of people are using this unauthorised, unregulated channel as a CHEAP SOURCE to PURCHASE those commodities, either for RESALE or CONSUMPTION.

    Remember, government decriminalised vending. As such, increasing numbers of vendors have entered the trade to earn a living. Several vendors, many of whom are non-nationals, have ‘set up shop in every nook and cranny’ of Bridgetown and along the ‘highways and byways’ of the island.
    Human nature is such that consumers are always looking for bargains. This demand incentivizes individuals to steal in order to profit from the illicit market.

    A cycle is created whereby INCREASED DEMAND leads to more theft, which is further stimulated by a readily available supply of stolen products.

    Media reports indicate the operations of praedial larcenists, or “criminal gangs” have become highly sophisticated and more organised.
    Those criminals have now moved from stealing small amounts of produce to large amounts involving, in some instances, truckloads or an entire field of particular vegetables.

    They operate in a complex social and economic environment encompassing varied groups of individuals, some of whom the media described as “people in the fields, lookouts, van and truck drivers,” who have developed businesses and livelihoods by stealing from legitimate farmers.

    Whereas farmers incur direct and indirect expenses relative to agricultural costing, praedial larcenists do not…… thereby ENABLING them to SELL produce to vendors and consumers at BELOW MARKET PRICES.

    Unfortunately, buyers are often not INTERESTED in the LEGITIMACY of the produce’s source.

    Ironically, you know ‘we’re making sport’ when VOB’s ‘Brass Tacks’ provides a forum for a former policeman and known serial praedial larcenist, Roland ‘Mr. Agriculture’ Layne, to pontificate about agricultural issues.

  6. Exil Avatar
    Exil

    Problem Solving is an EXACTING SCIENCE.
    ==============================

    “NO, problem solving is not an exact science. While it can incorporate elements of scientific methods and logical reasoning, it often involves creativity, intuition and subjective judgment, particularly when dealing with complex, real world situations.
    The term “exact science” typically refers to fields like mathematics, physics and chemistry, where laws can be expressed with high accuracy and predictions can be made with a high degree of certainty, according to some science sites.”

    The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “exact science” as “a science (such as physics, chemistry, or astronomy) whose laws are capable of accurate quantitative expression.”

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Agree with much of your comment Artax. Unfortunately the rot and race to the bottom that is being witnessed in agriculture is symptomatic of societal decadence; lack of leadership etc.

  8. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    @ Exil
    You need to look up the difference between ‘exact’ and ‘exacting’.
    While at it, research the dangers of malapropism.

    @ David
    Agree.
    The post by Artax represents an excellent start to a meaningful PROCESS aimed at dealing with praedial larceny.

    Where have you hear of ANY such analytical approach being employed by government?
    Such an approach would REQUIRE:
    – intimate involvement of stakeholders UP FRONT
    – Openness to intelligent suggestions and inputs
    – an attitude of CO-OPERATION and flexibility by authorities
    – the TRUST of the public
    – etc.

    Typically, those jokers hide and prepare some shiite Bill, which they then ‘debate’ among their ignorant selves… and pass unanimously.
    Only to typically be embarrassed by Caswell, the Senate, the general public, by technical issues that arise – or by the BLATANT failure of the whole exercise..

    Too many examples to cite….
    What a place!

  9. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    @ David

    The following information was taken from page 50 of a 2010 working paper entitled, “Analysis of the State of Praedial Larceny in Member States of CARICOM.”

    4.2.3 Barbados

    In terms of policy and legislative framework Barbados has adopted the five strategic areas emerging from the 2005 Regional Consultation on Praedial Larceny, hosted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) in collaboration with the Barbados Agriculture Society and the FAO.

    These include:

    a) The provision of greater law enforcements in areas prone to theft which could serve as a deterrent to praedial larcenists;

    b) Sensitizing the public to buy only from legitimate sources such as centralized market places;

    c) Ensuring that marketers and distributors request a certificate of purchase for agricultural produce or livestock, or that farmers are able to show an identification card when in possession of agricultural produce or livestock;

    d) The promotion of call in services where farmers can report cases of theft which can then be publicized among the general public and relevant authority and

    e) Introduction of the use of photographs of stolen produce or livestock as evidence in the Courts.

    The Praedial Larceny Prevention Act (1997) makes provision for (i) the licensing of vendors of agriculture produce and livestock, and persons operating a vehicle conveying agricultural produce and livestock (ii) fines and imprisonment for offences under the Act (iii) compensation for the victim of praedial larceny (iv) the issue of a receipt or certificate of purchase to a buyer and (v) the registration of farmers.

  10. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    Appears to be an issue of Implementation Deficit.
    Or possibly unable to hire the required staff due to having an enlarged Cabinet.

  11. David Avatar
    David

    @Artax

    You should listen to a former agriculture public official by the name of Mr. Gibbs who sometimes moderates the Brasstacks talk show on Sundays. It would crystallize how the culture of ‘politics’ eats strategy and policy in Barbados.

  12. David Avatar
    David

    The day I took my gran to the Ivy

    IHOLD ABSOLUTELY nothing against the Ivy – a very famous urban neighbourhood in Barbados. This past week, the memory of a day trip in 2004 with my late maternal grandmother weighed heavily on my mind. The reason was, ironically, due to the public discourse surrounding the release of the Central Bank’s Review of Barbados’ Economy, January to June 2025.

    It has been quite a few years since I listened to a Central Bank governor’s press conference on the release of this document. These days, any analysis I do begins with hearing the public’s reaction to the Governor’s media presentation. I tend to read the document afterwards, drawing my own insights against those that are peddled in public. In fact, this is why I haven’t given an interview on the document in quite some time.

    The first step of my analysis this time threw me for a loop. Interestingly, my issue was less with the report itself and more with the public’s reaction to the headlines. Truthfully, the report does not say much of note, other than to confirm that the country, in the short run, has “stabilised”. From the Governor’s presentation, the public learned that we have low interest rates, stable default risk for loans to residents and the private sector, a generally low-risk financial market for consumer credit and mortgages, and falling public debt as a percentage of GDP, even though GDP growth was lower than the same period last year.

    All is supposedly well because construction – a highly labour-intensive sector and the government’s favoured tool for driving short-term growth – leads the charge, alongside the ever-touted tourism industry. I almost forgot to mention that the unemployment rate continues to fall, even in the face of persistent geopolitical tensions. By now, readers know I am very much against using that statistic to convey any real sense of health or malaise in our job market. The report also sang the praises of the agricultural sector and the steady climb in its contribution to the economy.

    However, the headlines zoned in on the spectre of inflation. This is not something we can control much locally, even if the Government concocts policies against alleged price gouging on the island. Inflation is mostly imported, after all, and since most of our GDP is driven by activities aimed at those living and working on the island, it stands to reason that, with a continually weakening manufacturing sector, our industrial inputs will likely continue to come from abroad.

    The headlines also noted the tepid GDP growth. Since I did not hear the presentation myself, I cannot say whether economic growth of 2.5 per cent for the year so far should be “celebrated”, especially when inflation is just 0.5 per cent for the same period. It suggests a slowdown, even when compared to historical periods, aside from the extraordinary circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. I see softening. I expected it, because there is no real execution of a sustainable growth strategy in Barbados. You cannot expect two diametrically opposed things to be true at the same time. For clarity, I draw on my grandmother, who used to say, “Two things closely opposed cannot be true at the same time.”

    I almost forgot to tell you about my day with the old girl for a moment – I got carried away. Normally, I like to put my anecdotes up front, so I apologise for this departure. I fancied myself a bit of a music producer during my time as a student at University of the West Indies. I was into making rap beats, which brought me into some circles locally that I still respect. On the day in question, I was following my usual weekend routine with Ma when I received a call from a friend in the Ivy, asking me to come and listen to some tracks he was working on. I did not have much time to drop my salt-of-the-earth grandmother back home and make it in and out of the Ivy before nightfall. You would never catch me going there, nor leaving, at such an hour. So I took Ma over to my friend’s, but little did I know some of our more hardened, grass-loving friends would be there jamming to the same tracks I was asked to hear. Suffice it to say, when they saw Ma getting out of the vehicle with me, everything was either blown out or hidden. Those guys were actually warm, accommodating, and respectful of her presence. Just know that certain types of tracks were not played while she was around. I can still see her standing there, obviously uncomfortable, but she held her poise. Ma always trusted my judgement and never pressed for an early exit. When we finally did so, some forty minutes after arriving, she waited until we sat in the car, leaned over to me, and said, “In life, two things closely opposed cannot be true at the same time.” Back then, I thought she was secondhand high and sorely regretted letting her tag along.

    What she said made far more sense after I became a professional economist. She just didn’t trust the motives of those guys. I’ll close this article by drawing some conclusions inspired by her wisdom and the commotion surrounding the Central Bank report. Firstly, a government in a small open economy can use a capital expenditure strategy to drive short-term growth by encouraging construction of hotels and supporting infrastructure. Alternatively, it can commit to capital expenditure focused on building infrastructure with a clear plan to attract businesses to utilise it – prioritising slower short-term growth for greater long-term gains. Unfortunately, these strategies are mutually exclusive. Traditionally, one does not lead to the other. The first almost guarantees an over-reliance on foreign debt, which becomes difficult to pay off.

    You can tell I am not too encouraged by the building boom in Barbados. It comes across as though the philosophy is “build it and they will come”. They very well may, but the question remains: what then keeps them here? Another truth, and I point my finger at us – the general public – when I write this, is that a growing economy does not mean that wages are meant to grow as soon as that growth is felt. Basic labour economic theory suggests that, especially in small open economies, wage growth substantially lags behind overall economic growth. In practice, the two almost behave as polar opposites. I know this may not sit well with some of you, but this is largely due to the modern modus operandi of our unions. I am not saying it is deliberate – there is an entire article I could write on this alone. Essentially, pushes for wage increases tend to happen while the economy is tightening. However, this need not be the case. If we ignore the aforementioned effect of unions, it simply comes down to the demand and supply of labour.

    Given that the Central Bank and the Barbados Statistical Service report that unemployment is steadily falling, one might think there’s no real “natural” driver for wage growth on the island. It leaves the impression of an “over-supply” of labour, which is always met by wage stagnation, regardless of other factors. Remember what my grandmother said.

    Jeremy Stephen is an economist/financial analyst with extensive experience in private equity and economic consulting in Barbados and the region. Email: economistfeedback@gmail.com

    source: Nation

  13. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Bushie is highly UNIMPRESSED by anyone who is supposed to be a highly accomplished ‘economist’ (whatever the Hell THAT is) with extensive experience, and offering advise to a bushman – BUT WHO IS NOT THEMSELVES OUTSTANDINGLY WEALTHY.

    Shiite den!!
    Wunna think Bushie going to a sickly doctor for medical consultations…?
    …or to a dentist with crooked teeth for ANY kind of treatment?
    (No name no lock up….!)

    So when Greenidge, Stephen, Mascoll, Wood and these myriad of other ‘poor-donkeyed’ analysts pontificate on these matters, the bushman usually just LOL….
    HOWEVER, when a multi-millionaire economist speaks, the bushman may be more impressed.

    But Jeremy is 100% correct here…
    Not because he is an economist, but because he is a fella with common sense… and he listened to his grandmother (who, BTW, was NOT an economist (WETHTI).

    It is ABUNDANTLY clear that these charlatans at the Central Bank sit down every damn year and concoct shiite stories that are designed to fit a POLITICAL narrative handed down (even if intuitively so) by the political powers that be…

    Anyway, we were told years ago that CBB governors are ‘creatures’ of the Finance lords… and Bushie is unaware of any Central Bank emancipation day since then…

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