COVID 19 UPDATES
The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit
Blogmaster
David; re. your 4:41 am post;
You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.
The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.
Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.
Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.
The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.
Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.
There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small
Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small
Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020) – Lyall Small
Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small
There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall
Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com
An 81-year-old Barbadian man returned a positive result for COVID-19 after his second test, among 379 completed on Friday.
He arrived in Barbados on Sunday, October 4, on a British Airways flight, and went into quarantine as required for persons travelling from high risk countries. This brings the total confirmed cases to 206 and increases the number of persons in isolation to 16. The island’s recoveries remain at 183 and there were seven deaths.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/10/elderly-man-contracts-covid/
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Attached are the usual weekly graphs (up to 9th oct). Active cases in Jamaica, Trinidad and Guyana are now slowly trending downwards. Grenada remains steady at zero while Barbados is showing a slight uptick related to the Ellerslie cluster. The data does not support community spread – Lyall Small
Follow BU COVID 19 Updates Page
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Considering the aggressive border policy of Barbados, we continue to satisfactorily manage the situation – comparatively speaking. Good to see the Jamaica, Guyana and T&T getting to the backside of the curve.
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Wise decision.
“Canada now on high-risk list
Barbados has placed Canada in the high-risk category in a new set of COVID-19 travel protocols which go into effect on October 16.”
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/11/canada-now-high-risk-list/
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Another national coronavirus lockdown is a possibility and we have to do what we can to avoid that at all costs, a leading UK scientist has said.
Prof Peter Horby said the UK was at a “precarious point” as Covid cases and hospital admissions continue to rise.
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October 6, 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
144,347 patients admitted to hospital
2,833 patients currently in hospital
393 patients currently on ventilators
42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
October 11, 2020
147,467 patients admitted to hospital
3,837 patients currently in hospital
641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
442 patients currently on ventilators
42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
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Two men, both of whom arrived in Barbados last week, are the latest COVID-19-positive cases.
They are a 64-year-old Barbadian who came in on Jet Blue on Saturday and a 53-year-old visitor who arrived from the United Kingdom on British Airways on October 7. He tested positive after a second test yesterday.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/11/two-men-test-positive-covid/
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Is there another COVID surge in China?
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October 6, 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
144,347 patients admitted to hospital
2,833 patients currently in hospital
393 patients currently on ventilators
42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
October 11, 2020
147,467 patients admitted to hospital
3,837 patients currently in hospital
641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
442 patients currently on ventilators
42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
October 12, 2020
148,118 patients admitted to hospital
3,837 patients currently in hospital
651 patients admitted to hospitals every day
442 patients currently on ventilators
42,875 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
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@Simple Simon
The trending does not look good. We should loan the UK our CMO.
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Glyne Clark may want to wait before moving to Ottawa.
“COVID-19: 746 new cases in Ontario, 116 in Ottawa”
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-746-new-cases-in-ontario-116-in-ottawa
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-october-13-update-1.5760043
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Johnson &Johnson paused phase 3
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/johnson-johnson-pauses-clinical-trials-covid-vaccine-over-patient-illness-n1243067
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The Ministry of Health and Wellness said today that two visitors who arrived from the United Kingdom last week were positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) after being retested.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/13/two-new-virus-cases-one-recovery-202010132121087999/
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October 6, 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
144,347 patients admitted to hospital
2,833 patients currently in hospital
393 patients currently on ventilators
42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
October 11, 2020
147,467 patients admitted to hospital
3,837 patients currently in hospital
641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
442 patients currently on ventilators
42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
October 12, 2020
148,118 patients admitted to hospital
3,837 patients currently in hospital
651 patients admitted to hospitals every day
442 patients currently on ventilators
42,875 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
October 14, 2020
149,548 patients admitted to hospital
4,650 patients currently in hospital
680 patients admitted to hospitals every day
516 patients currently on ventilators
43,155 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
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London, Paris face clampdowns as Europe hits COVID-19 records
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/london-paris-face-clampdowns-as-europe-hits-covid-19-records
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CDC tells US travellers to ‘avoid’ Barbados
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/10/15/cdc-tells-us-travellers-to-avoid-barbados/
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The new cases are a 34-year-old male visitor who arrived on Trans Guyana on September 30; a 32-year-old female who has been identified as a contact of the male visitor and who also arrived on September 30 on Trans Guyana; and a 37-year-old male visitor who came in on British Airways on October 3.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/15/three-new-virus-cases-202010160022119699/
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24,780 Covid19 cases per million population in the United States
672 Covid19 deaths per million population in the United States
758 Covid19 DEATHS per million population in the United States
24 Covid19 DEATHS per million population in Barbados
So a person in the USA is 32 times MORE LIKELY to have caught COVID19 as a person in Barbados
And a person in the USA is 28 times MORE LIKELY to have DIED of COVID19 as a person in Barbados
Source: worldometers.info
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October 6, 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
144,347 patients admitted to hospital
2,833 patients currently in hospital
393 patients currently on ventilators
42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
October 14, 2020
149,548 patients admitted to hospital
4,650 patients currently in hospital
680 patients admitted to hospitals every day
516 patients currently on ventilators
43,155 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
October 16, 2020
150,378 patients admitted to hospital
4941 patients currently in hospital
792 patients admitted to hospitals every day
580 patients currently on ventilators
43,293 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
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Looks like the second wave is gathering momentum, where is the Czar!
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Those are British numbers
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Yes.
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The second wave started in the countries of the great white north about a month ago.
Will likely be a second wave in those countries within 15 degrees of the equator as well, but as happened last winter [roughly December 2019 to the end of March 2020] the second wave will likely be more intense in the north than in equatorial regions, principally because in cold weather people in the north are forced indoors in homes, schools and on public transportation, and it is hard to avoid breathing on others in those circumstances.
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We pray that Operation Warp Speed does not develop a speed wobble.
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Ontario reported nine new deaths Friday
261 people are hospitalized with COVID-19, 67 are in ICU and 36 of them are on ventilators
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-ontario-reports-712-new-cases-108-in-ottawa
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html
How CDC Determines the Risk Level for COVID-19 Travel Health Notices
Criteria Used to Determine COVID-19 Travel Health Notice Risk Levels
CDC bases COVID-19 risk levels for foreign countries and US Territories on two sets of data (primary and secondary criteria)
Primary Criteria: Virus Transmission Rates
CDC uses World Health Organization COVID-19 surveillance data external to measure virus transmission rates; we monitor this information every day. Population size determines the specific criteria CDC uses.
For foreign countries and US Territories with 300,000 people or less, CDC reviews two primary criteria
Primary Criteria for COVID-19 Travel Health Notice Levels*
Destinations with 300,000 People or Less LEVEL 3 HIGH RISK LEVEL 2 MODERATE RISK LEVEL 1 LOW RISK
Number of new cases More than 10 7-10 3-6
New Case Trajectory Accelerating or growing Decelerating, slowing, OR stable
*CDC reviews all primary criteria daily; see below for how a destination moves from one THN level to another.
Secondary Criteria: Healthcare Capacity and Public Health Infrastructure
CDC uses secondary criteria to measure the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services (healthcare and public health). Secondary criteria are mostly qualitative data that come from official sources, such as ministry of health websites. We review the same secondary criteria for destinations with more than 300,000 people as for those with 300,000 people or less.
Examples of secondary criteria
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Where sis the Czar? Have we got an epidemiological model on which to work?
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We are waiting on Boris.
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Boris has a model? Wuh she name?
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I nominate Dr. George for the Czar post. I love how he dresses, with his open shirt and gold chain. This is more important to me than doing a great job at managing the pandemic and saving lives.
Dr. George for new czar!
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An important LINK to support concerns about air travel in a COVID 19 environment.
and another LINK.
This is the original article to which the link explains.
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Fear is the virus we must fight. Time to get informed, stop being stupid and spreading the fear.
https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/
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This daily influx of visitors should be a good test to see if Barbados is managing “Covid ”
“Barbados welcomed the inaugural British Airways flight from London Heathrow to Barbados on October 17, 2020, as it resumed its year-round direct daily service to the island, after a hiatus of more than 15 years”
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/10/18/british-airways-resumes-london-heathrow-to-barbados/
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Dr. Stella Immanuel is one of America’s Frontline Doctors.
Somehow when Trump got covid, neither Emmanuel nor hydroxychloriquine were part of his treatment.
i wonder why?
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219,668 dead Americans, including my cousin, who was younger than me.
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@Cuhdear Bajan
You can keep wondering why because you prefer to believe the changing lies from non practicing experts rather than open your eyes and read the mounting evidence that political agendas, media lies and the greed of the pharmaceutical industry led to the death of your cousin and probably will kill other family members as well unless you wise up.
Early and Preventative Treatment is out there for those not afraid to look and here is one such good place you can start. https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/hcq-protocols/
Winter is coming.
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@Critical Analyzer October 18, 2020 10:24 PM “open your eyes and read the mounting evidence that political agendas, media lies and the greed of the pharmaceutical industry led to the death of your cousin.”
Nope.
My cousin died from Covid19.
He did not die from “political agendas, media lies, nor from the greed of the pharmaceutical industry.”
He died from COVID19
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@Critical Analyzer October 18, 2020 10:24 PM “Winter is coming.”
Really?
I’ve lived here for more than 50 years and the temperature has never dropped below 16 C
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A critical point that should not be forgotten is the number of people who will get sick and have to enter the medical system. If COVID 19 is not held in check it will compromise healthcare delivery for others.
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On October 18 at 9:01 PM “219,668 dead Americans, including my cousin, who was younger than me.”
On October 22 at 8:32 PM “222,965 dead Americans”
In this 4 day period more Americans died of COVID19 than died on 9/11
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https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
October 6, 2020
144,347 patients admitted to hospital
2,833 patients currently in hospital
393 patients currently on ventilators
42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
October 22, 2020
157,242 patients admitted to hospital
7,433 patients currently in hospital
1,058 patients admitted to hospitals every day
711 patients currently on ventilators
44,347 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
58,164 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate
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Canada breaks record for number of new COVID-19 cases in a single day
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-breaks-record-for-number-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-a-single-day-1.5157030
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https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/23/uk-travel-agents-endorse-barbados-safe-plac/
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“Two visitors tested positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on Wednesday after their mandatory second tests. They were the only positive cases among the 392 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.
They are a 24-year-old female, who arrived on American Airlines on October 18, and a 48-year-old male, who came in on British Airways on October 20.”
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/23/two-visitors-test-positive-virus/
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The Ministry of Health and Wellness said today that a 32-year-old male visitor, who arrived on British Airways on October 9, has tested positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) after a second test.
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According to the New York Times “U.S. hits highest daily number of cases since pandemic began
Friday’s tally is the first time the United States has seen more than 80,000 cases reported in one day, and surpasses the previous record set during a summer surge of cases across the Sun Belt. It comes as many states are seeing rising hospitalizations.”
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Two female visitors and a Barbadian man are the latest people to test positive for COVID-19 in Barbados. They were all diagnosed after being tested a second time.
They are an 18-year-old female, who arrived on British Airways on October 22; a 25-year-old female, who came in on Jet Blue on October 20; and a 20-year-old male, who arrived on Air Canada on October 18.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/25/three-new-covid-cases-take-total-230/
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Ontario’s daily COVID-19 cases top 1,000 for 1st time, day after reaching previous high
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-october-25-numbers-report-1.5776198
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Government considering another czar
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/26/government-considering-another-czar/
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How many weeks have we gone without a Czar? What is our epidemiological model? Also, there are about 168 candidate vaccines in development. Has the government of Barbados placed any orders with any, or are we waiting on the Chinese or Russian developments?
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A female, who arrived on British Airways on October 22, tested positive for the viral illness after her second test on Friday.
Two males, 38 and 21, arrived on American Airlines on October 15, and were retested on October 16. Their cases were under investigation until Friday when they were confirmed with the viral illness.
https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/26/three-visitors-test-positive-covid/
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