COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

756 comments

  • An 81-year-old Barbadian man returned a positive result for COVID-19 after his second test, among 379 completed on Friday.

    He arrived in Barbados on Sunday, October 4, on a British Airways flight, and went into quarantine as required for persons travelling from high risk countries. This brings the total confirmed cases to 206 and increases the number of persons in isolation to 16. The island’s recoveries remain at 183 and there were seven deaths.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/10/elderly-man-contracts-covid/

    Like

  • Attached are the usual weekly graphs (up to 9th oct). Active cases in Jamaica, Trinidad and Guyana are now slowly trending downwards. Grenada remains steady at zero while Barbados is showing a slight uptick related to the Ellerslie cluster. The data does not support community spread – Lyall Small
    Follow BU COVID 19 Updates Page

    Like

  • Considering the aggressive border policy of Barbados, we continue to satisfactorily manage the situation – comparatively speaking. Good to see the Jamaica, Guyana and T&T getting to the backside of the curve.

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  • Wise decision.

    “Canada now on high-risk list
    Barbados has placed Canada in the high-risk category in a new set of COVID-19 travel protocols which go into effect on October 16.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/11/canada-now-high-risk-list/

    Like

  • Another national coronavirus lockdown is a possibility and we have to do what we can to avoid that at all costs, a leading UK scientist has said.

    Prof Peter Horby said the UK was at a “precarious point” as Covid cases and hospital admissions continue to rise.

    Like

  • October 6, 2020
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    144,347 patients admitted to hospital
    2,833 patients currently in hospital
    393 patients currently on ventilators
    42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis

    October 11, 2020
    147,467 patients admitted to hospital
    3,837 patients currently in hospital
    641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    442 patients currently on ventilators
    42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

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  • Two men, both of whom arrived in Barbados last week, are the latest COVID-19-positive cases.

    They are a 64-year-old Barbadian who came in on Jet Blue on Saturday and a 53-year-old visitor who arrived from the United Kingdom on British Airways on October 7. He tested positive after a second test yesterday.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/11/two-men-test-positive-covid/

    Like

  • Is there another COVID surge in China?

    Like

  • October 6, 2020
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    144,347 patients admitted to hospital
    2,833 patients currently in hospital
    393 patients currently on ventilators
    42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis

    October 11, 2020
    147,467 patients admitted to hospital
    3,837 patients currently in hospital
    641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    442 patients currently on ventilators
    42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    October 12, 2020
    148,118 patients admitted to hospital
    3,837 patients currently in hospital
    651 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    442 patients currently on ventilators
    42,875 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    Like

  • @Simple Simon

    The trending does not look good. We should loan the UK our CMO.

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  • https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • Glyne Clark may want to wait before moving to Ottawa.

    “COVID-19: 746 new cases in Ontario, 116 in Ottawa”

    https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-746-new-cases-in-ontario-116-in-ottawa

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  • The Ministry of Health and Wellness said today that two visitors who arrived from the United Kingdom last week were positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) after being retested.
    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/13/two-new-virus-cases-one-recovery-202010132121087999/

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  • https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • October 6, 2020
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    144,347 patients admitted to hospital
    2,833 patients currently in hospital
    393 patients currently on ventilators
    42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis

    October 11, 2020
    147,467 patients admitted to hospital
    3,837 patients currently in hospital
    641 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    442 patients currently on ventilators
    42,825 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    October 12, 2020
    148,118 patients admitted to hospital
    3,837 patients currently in hospital
    651 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    442 patients currently on ventilators
    42,875 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,347 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    October 14, 2020
    149,548 patients admitted to hospital
    4,650 patients currently in hospital
    680 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    516 patients currently on ventilators
    43,155 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    Like

  • The new cases are a 34-year-old male visitor who arrived on Trans Guyana on September 30; a 32-year-old female who has been identified as a contact of the male visitor and who also arrived on September 30 on Trans Guyana; and a 37-year-old male visitor who came in on British Airways on October 3.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/15/three-new-virus-cases-202010160022119699/

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  • 24,780 Covid19 cases per million population in the United States
    672 Covid19 deaths per million population in the United States

    758 Covid19 DEATHS per million population in the United States
    24 Covid19 DEATHS per million population in Barbados

    So a person in the USA is 32 times MORE LIKELY to have caught COVID19 as a person in Barbados
    And a person in the USA is 28 times MORE LIKELY to have DIED of COVID19 as a person in Barbados

    Source: worldometers.info

    Like

  • October 6, 2020
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    144,347 patients admitted to hospital
    2,833 patients currently in hospital
    393 patients currently on ventilators
    42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis

    October 14, 2020
    149,548 patients admitted to hospital
    4,650 patients currently in hospital
    680 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    516 patients currently on ventilators
    43,155 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    October 16, 2020
    150,378 patients admitted to hospital
    4941 patients currently in hospital
    792 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    580 patients currently on ventilators
    43,293 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    57,690 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

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  • Looks like the second wave is gathering momentum, where is the Czar!

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  • Those are British numbers

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  • The second wave started in the countries of the great white north about a month ago.

    Will likely be a second wave in those countries within 15 degrees of the equator as well, but as happened last winter [roughly December 2019 to the end of March 2020] the second wave will likely be more intense in the north than in equatorial regions, principally because in cold weather people in the north are forced indoors in homes, schools and on public transportation, and it is hard to avoid breathing on others in those circumstances.

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  • We pray that Operation Warp Speed does not develop a speed wobble.

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  • Ontario reported nine new deaths Friday
    261 people are hospitalized with COVID-19, 67 are in ICU and 36 of them are on ventilators

    https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-ontario-reports-712-new-cases-108-in-ottawa

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  • https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html
    How CDC Determines the Risk Level for COVID-19 Travel Health Notices
    Criteria Used to Determine COVID-19 Travel Health Notice Risk Levels

    CDC bases COVID-19 risk levels for foreign countries and US Territories on two sets of data (primary and secondary criteria)

    Virus transmission rates at the destination (primary criteria)
    AND
    Healthcare capacity and public health infrastructure at the destination (secondary criteria)
    

    Primary Criteria: Virus Transmission Rates

    CDC uses World Health Organization COVID-19 surveillance data external to measure virus transmission rates; we monitor this information every day. Population size determines the specific criteria CDC uses.

    For foreign countries and US Territories with 300,000 people or less, CDC reviews two primary criteria

    New COVID-19 case counts, and
    New case trajectory
    

    Primary Criteria for COVID-19 Travel Health Notice Levels*
    Destinations with 300,000 People or Less LEVEL 3 HIGH RISK LEVEL 2 MODERATE RISK LEVEL 1 LOW RISK
    Number of new cases More than 10 7-10 3-6
    New Case Trajectory Accelerating or growing Decelerating, slowing, OR stable

    *CDC reviews all primary criteria daily; see below for how a destination moves from one THN level to another.

    Secondary Criteria: Healthcare Capacity and Public Health Infrastructure

    CDC uses secondary criteria to measure the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services (healthcare and public health). Secondary criteria are mostly qualitative data that come from official sources, such as ministry of health websites. We review the same secondary criteria for destinations with more than 300,000 people as for those with 300,000 people or less.

    Examples of secondary criteria

    Healthcare capacity, such as available hospital beds and ventilators
    Public health infrastructure, such as testing and contact tracing capacity
    Any documented exported cases (an exported COVID-19 case is defined as a traveler who leaves one foreign country or US Territory and enters another)
    

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  • Ellerslie School given all-clear

    It’s back to school for students of The Ellerslie School tomorrow.
    The good news came yesterday following a walkthrough of the school’s compound at Black Rock, St Michael, by officials from the Ministry of Education, Technological and Vocational Training.
    They were accompanied by the Crisis Communication Committee, comprising members of the school’s board of management, the school’s administration, its health and safety committee and the Parent Teachers Association (PTA).
    Also represented on the tour were members of the Barbados Union of Teachers and the Barbados Secondary Teachers’ Union.
    Acting Chief Education Officer, Joy Adamson, speaking prior to the walkthrough, informed the representatives that on October 16, the Ministry of Education, Technological and Vocational Training received a letter from the Chief Medical Officer, Dr Kenneth George, indicating that the contact tracing at The Ellerslie School was completed.
    She noted there were no further COVID-19 cases found; there was both primary and secondary contact tracing and the Ministry of Health and Wellness was satisfied to report that the primary contact tracing was 100 per cent complete.
    “To this end, the Chief Medical Officer, Dr Kenneth George, recommended that the school was now safe to be reopened for both students and teachers on Monday, October 19,” Adamson said.
    Representatives also heard that there was a “thorough and deep cleaning” in all areas, including its administrative block, classrooms, specialist areas and the pavilion.
    “The cleaning was completed today (yesterday), and the school will be totally ventilated tomorrow (today), so that when students return on Monday (tomorrow), everything will be in order,” the Acting Chief Education Officer said, as she acknowledged their satisfaction and support for the reopening.
    Adamson, however, addressed a major concern which was evoked by the group and took the opportunity to issue an appeal.
    “One of the things that we would want to tell the public of Barbados is that the contact tracing found no further cases and therefore on October 19 we want them to embrace the students of The Ellerslie School.
    “The students, teachers and their relatives would have had a traumatic time over the last two weeks. Their return to school should not be made difficult,” she stressed.
    It was also noted that the Ministry provided counselling for students, teachers and all other staff during the last two weeks.
    “We therefore think it important that school should go back to normal. This episode here at The Ellerslie School is a wakeup call for all of us in Education and throughout Barbados; we must continue to wear our masks; we must continue to practise physical distancing; and we must continue to sanitise.
    “The Ministry of Education is very pleased with the outcome here because it proves that our protocols have worked at this school, and if all schools also adhere to the protocols, hopefully we will be able to keep this scourge of COVID-19 at bay within our schools and throughout Barbados,” the Acting Chief Education Officer concluded.
    (BA/PR)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • Where sis the Czar? Have we got an epidemiological model on which to work?

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  • We are waiting on Boris.

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  • Boris has a model? Wuh she name?

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  • I nominate Dr. George for the Czar post. I love how he dresses, with his open shirt and gold chain. This is more important to me than doing a great job at managing the pandemic and saving lives.

    Dr. George for new czar!

    Like

  • An important LINK to support concerns about air travel in a COVID 19 environment.
    and another LINK.

    This is the original article to which the link explains.

    Cough modeling research finds low exposure risk to COVID-19 inside airplane
    U.S. Department of Defense findings show the cabin environment quickly removes particles in the air.
    BNN
    Friday, October 16, 2020

    Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers are taking a closer look at something passengers can’t see onboard an airplane — the air they breathe.

    New findings just released show airborne particles spread less within commercial airplanes than in conventional indoor places — such as homes, offices or businesses. The research led by the U.S. Transportation Command found the cabin environment limits particle movement and quickly removes them from the air.

    Working closely with Boeing, United Airlines, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the University of Nebraska Medical Center, USTRANSCOM conducted the testing inside the cabin of a Boeing 767-300 and a Boeing 777-200.

    “Within the scope of the test, the results showed an overall low exposure risk from aerosolized pathogens like COVID-19 on these aircraft,” said Vice Adm. Dee Mewbourne, deputy commander of USTRANSCOM.

    https://advocate.socialchorus.com/boeing/BNN/articles/cough-modeling-research-finds-low-exposure-risk-to-covid-inside-airplane-1

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  • Critical Analyzer

    Fear is the virus we must fight. Time to get informed, stop being stupid and spreading the fear.

    https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/

    Like

  • This daily influx of visitors should be a good test to see if Barbados is managing “Covid ”

    “Barbados welcomed the inaugural British Airways flight from London Heathrow to Barbados on October 17, 2020, as it resumed its year-round direct daily service to the island, after a hiatus of more than 15 years”

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/10/18/british-airways-resumes-london-heathrow-to-barbados/

    Like

  • Dr. Stella Immanuel is one of America’s Frontline Doctors.

    Somehow when Trump got covid, neither Emmanuel nor hydroxychloriquine were part of his treatment.

    i wonder why?

    Like

  • 219,668 dead Americans, including my cousin, who was younger than me.

    Like

  • Critical Analyzer

    @Cuhdear Bajan
    You can keep wondering why because you prefer to believe the changing lies from non practicing experts rather than open your eyes and read the mounting evidence that political agendas, media lies and the greed of the pharmaceutical industry led to the death of your cousin and probably will kill other family members as well unless you wise up.

    Early and Preventative Treatment is out there for those not afraid to look and here is one such good place you can start. https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/hcq-protocols/

    Winter is coming.

    Like

  • @Critical Analyzer October 18, 2020 10:24 PM “open your eyes and read the mounting evidence that political agendas, media lies and the greed of the pharmaceutical industry led to the death of your cousin.”

    Nope.

    My cousin died from Covid19.

    He did not die from “political agendas, media lies, nor from the greed of the pharmaceutical industry.”

    He died from COVID19

    Like

  • @Critical Analyzer October 18, 2020 10:24 PM “Winter is coming.”

    Really?

    I’ve lived here for more than 50 years and the temperature has never dropped below 16 C

    Like

  • A critical point that should not be forgotten is the number of people who will get sick and have to enter the medical system. If COVID 19 is not held in check it will compromise healthcare delivery for others.

    Liked by 2 people

  • On October 18 at 9:01 PM “219,668 dead Americans, including my cousin, who was younger than me.”

    On October 22 at 8:32 PM “222,965 dead Americans”

    In this 4 day period more Americans died of COVID19 than died on 9/11

    Like

  • https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    October 6, 2020
    144,347 patients admitted to hospital
    2,833 patients currently in hospital
    393 patients currently on ventilators
    42,445 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis

    October 22, 2020
    157,242 patients admitted to hospital
    7,433 patients currently in hospital
    1,058 patients admitted to hospitals every day
    711 patients currently on ventilators
    44,347 patients died withing 28 days of a covid19 diagnosis
    58,164 deaths with COVID19 on the death certificate

    Like

  • “Two visitors tested positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on Wednesday after their mandatory second tests. They were the only positive cases among the 392 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    They are a 24-year-old female, who arrived on American Airlines on October 18, and a 48-year-old male, who came in on British Airways on October 20.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/23/two-visitors-test-positive-virus/

    Like

  • The Ministry of Health and Wellness said today that a 32-year-old male visitor, who arrived on British Airways on October 9, has tested positive for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) after a second test.

    Like

  • According to the New York Times “U.S. hits highest daily number of cases since pandemic began
    Friday’s tally is the first time the United States has seen more than 80,000 cases reported in one day, and surpasses the previous record set during a summer surge of cases across the Sun Belt. It comes as many states are seeing rising hospitalizations.”

    Like

  • Two female visitors and a Barbadian man are the latest people to test positive for COVID-19 in Barbados. They were all diagnosed after being tested a second time.

    They are an 18-year-old female, who arrived on British Airways on October 22; a 25-year-old female, who came in on Jet Blue on October 20; and a 20-year-old male, who arrived on Air Canada on October 18.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/25/three-new-covid-cases-take-total-230/

    Like

  • Ontario’s daily COVID-19 cases top 1,000 for 1st time, day after reaching previous high

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-october-25-numbers-report-1.5776198

    Like

  • How many weeks have we gone without a Czar? What is our epidemiological model? Also, there are about 168 candidate vaccines in development. Has the government of Barbados placed any orders with any, or are we waiting on the Chinese or Russian developments?

    Like

  • A female, who arrived on British Airways on October 22, tested positive for the viral illness after her second test on Friday.

    Two males, 38 and 21, arrived on American Airlines on October 15, and were retested on October 16. Their cases were under investigation until Friday when they were confirmed with the viral illness.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2020/10/26/three-visitors-test-positive-covid/

    Like

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