COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

2,540 comments

  • @CA

    Why should we test drugs locally which have already been subjected to peer review/clinical trials elsewhere?

    Like

  • @CA
    so Doctor Corey Forde and the COVID monitoring unit should have had at least two papers published about what we learnt, one on treatment and one on methods of transmission or did they not learn anything after 18 months.
    ++++++++++++++
    Another idiotic statement from someone who gets his information from the right -wing outrage sector.

    Research is a full- time job, one just doesn’t get up one morning and publish “papers”, research isn’t blogging where one can put their stamp on the cure of the day. Scientists spend their entire career conducting research, they often have assistants that conduct experiments, collect data and analyse same.

    Dr. Forde has enough on his plate in his full his time role, he is smart enough to ignore unrealistic expectations from people who have a lot of time on their hands.

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  • Critical Analyzer

    @Sargeant September 1, 2021 9:15 AM

    I’m not talking about new drug research papers that takes a long time.

    They can pass the data onto fellow doctors at UWI or other doctors to perform detailed analysis and produce at least one observational case study. example title could be COVID-19 Transmission in Barbados.

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  • A solid contributor who has been absent for some time is Lyall.
    His graphs are preferred to some of the discussion and are sorely missed.

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  • How are Lyall’s graphs missed if they are updated to BU sidebar weekly and posted on this page as well?

    Like

  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory recorded 40 new cases of the virus (18 females and 22 males). Of these, 29 persons were 18 years old and over, while 11 were under 18.

    The number of tests conducted on Tuesday was 1,665.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/09/01/sixty-five-year-old-succumbs-to-covid-19-40-new-cases-recorded/

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  • They are.
    I am on a small phone. I usually go to the comments an then reply.
    I now scrolled down and see the charts below.
    Though hostile, your comment was informative.

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  • They are?
    No sidebar.

    I am on a small phone. I usually go to the comments and then reply.
    I now scrolled down and see the charts below.
    Though hostile, your comment was informative.

    Like

  • @ TheOGazerts, ” Though hostile “…..

    You ain’t seen nothing yet. That was a little nudge from David. lol

    You could go to You Yube for a classic from my favourite Canadian band.

    Bachman Turner Overdrive – You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet 1974

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  • @ TheoGazerts,

    Eighty new COVID-19 cases, 36 males and 44 females, were identified by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory from 2 544 tests conducted on Wednesday, September 1.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/09/02/eighty-new-cases-400-isolation/

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  • Pfizer a hit with Bajans
    by CARLOS ATWELL carlosatwell@nationnews.com
    BARBADIANS prefer the Pfizer vaccine over Sinopharm.
    In less than half the time of availability, thousands more doses of the United Statesproduced Pfizer have been administered than the Chinesemanufactured Sinopharm. Co-coordinator of the National Vaccination Programme, Major David Clarke, in giving a breakdown of the vaccination numbers yesterday, revealed that 8 769 first doses of Pfizer had been administered up to August 31, compared to 4 585 of Sinopharm.
    On August 13, 70 200 doses of Pfizer, the first US Food and Drug Administrationapproved vaccine, arrived in Barbados, compared to 30 000 doses of Sinopharm which landed on June 29.
    Clarke explained there were 26 331 first doses of Pfizer left to be administered before September 1, compared to 10 415 first doses of Sinopharm. If the current trend continues, the first set of Pfizer vaccines will be used up before Sinopharm.
    Pfizer is currently the only vaccine deemed safe for use in children aged 12 years and over. Clarke said that up to the end of last month, 2 268 students under the age of 18 had received a first dose of this vaccine, compared to 6 501 people 18 years and over.
    Evidence
    Neither Clarke nor fellow co-ordinator Dr Elizabeth Ferdinand would speculate on why so many more people were asking for Pfizer over Sinopharm.
    “I have no empirical evidence to say why.
    The people request a vaccine and we give it to them, no questions asked. We have not conducted an empirical survey or asked people that question as yet, so anything I say would be speculation.
    “My job is to put the
    structures in place for people to come and get vaccinated. People can consult their own private physicians to help them make up their minds; I cannot do that for them,” he said.
    Ferdinand said she too could not say why, but stressed that all three vaccines available in Barbados – Sinopharm, Pfizer and AstraZeneca – were World Health Organisation-approved and safe.
    Clarke said there were no worries about the Sinopharm vaccines going to waste as they had a long shelf life. He said they could last until 2023 and would be “in the fridge” for when people needed them should the others be used up.
    AstraZeneca was the first vaccine to arrive in Barbados. The first donation was via the Indian government, which gave 100 000 doses in February. Next were the donations through the COVAX Facility. The first tranche arrived in April and the third and final one last month, bringing the total to 100 800 doses. A few days ago, Canada donated an additional 30 000 doses to Barbados.
    Clarke said up to August 31, 97 839 first doses of AstraZeneca had been administered, leaving 17 561 first doses available. He added there were two more donations of Pfizer from the US government on the way, the second this month and the last next month, for a total of 210 600.


    Source: Nation

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  • 78 new cases

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  • Side note:
    We need to appreciate our small advances.

    I saw a wanted ad for a criminal in Barbados. It appears that we have abandoned using descriptions formerly used for escape slaves. Progress.

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  • There has been an uptick in the rate of Barbadians becoming vaccinated.

    I am wondering if vaccine hesitancy is the reason for the slow rate of vaccination part or if it is an inadequate vaccine supply

    Just a thought
    It would be interesting if we could also see the number of vaccines available for full vaccination. I am aware that for the two vaccine doses at least a month is required for full vaccination, but I would not lag the number of (full) vaccines available data.
    Number of full vaccines available
    Number fully vaccinated

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  • The prime minister we have 75,000 vaccines in hand. Vaccine hesitancy is a global challenge. Governments and stakeholders have to find ways to to improve the number. The PM promised there is a massive education program to be rolled out next week and we have seen the MOH going the route of pop up vaccination sites in non traditional locations.

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  • @CA 1/2
    Good response, but…
    “Once you get COVID all your neighbours are going to know because they will either be contact traced”

    I think contact tracing is who you could possibly come in contact with, and not a contact of all your neighbors

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory recorded 85 new cases (31 males and 54 females) of COVID-19. The number of tests conducted on Friday, September 10, was 1,338.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/09/11/covid-19-update-85-new-cases-719-in-isolation/

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  • The trends, except to some extent, in the vaccination charts, are not looking good. Indeed, the stark information from the latest Press conference by the PM and the MOH, and given the current global and regional dynamics of the Delta variant, suggest that the next few weeks here will be the most important of our fight against the pandemic. All Bajans need to follow the current Barbados Covid Protocols scrupulously. Any serious slippage could be catastrophic to our way of life – Source: Lyall Small

    See COVID 19 Updates

    Liked by 1 person

  • It getting wussa.

    Barbados has recorded 124 new COVID-19 cases, comprising 51 males and 73 females. The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory conducted 1 710 tests on Tuesday, September 14.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/09/15/124-virus-cases-752-people-isolation/

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  • The Barbados Government Information Service said in a media release on Wednesday, a 60-year-old Barbadian man died with the viral illness on Tuesday in the Accident and Emergency Department of the Queen Elizabeth Hospital.

    The media release added he had co-morbidities and was unvaccinated.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/2021/09/15/man-dies-covid-19-qeh/

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  • Toronto to launch four-day blitz of pop-up clinics to help hit 90 per cent vaccination target
    Toronto is launching #DaysofVaxation-a blitz of pop-up Covid-19 vaccination clinics aimed at the roughly 314,000 eligible Torontonians not yet fully protected from the virus and who are most at risk during the pandemics ongoing fourth wave.
    Mayor John Tory on Wednesday announced the Thursday-to-Sunday campaign calling it a “mega event” made up of a series of micro clinics, smaller pop-up clinics put exactly where we know people need to get vaccinated and where we know people will be over the coming days.
    Source: Toronto Star

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory reported 71 new COVID-19 cases from 2 132 tests conducted on Wednesday, September 15.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/09/16/71-new-covid-cases-828-isolation/

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  • Barbados.

    A 100 people test positive yesterday September 16th, and someone died last night.

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  • Update / correction

    Another 110 people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Barbados.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/09/17/110-new-covid-19-cases-850-now-isolation/

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  • Attached are updated graphs for the week ending 17th September 2021. There are no unambiguous signs of improvement re. the current outbreak as the Positivity charts seem to be showing a very slight improvement as well as the Vaccination percentages. Not captured here are the Active cases which have been increasing significantly for the last 3 or so weeks and which point to a depleting stock of beds and, likely other resources, for the increasing cases. There might therefore be an imminent need for Government to modify its current proven policy re. isolating / quarantining secondary and tertiary contacts. The need for everyone to urgently follow the official protocols is even more important now – Source: Lyall Small
    See: Covid 19 Update @caribbeansignal.com – BU Covid Updates page

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  • Explosion in virus cases

    COVID-19 continued its deadly toll in Barbados, with six people dying in seven days.
    September’s positive cases have exploded to 1 286 up to Thursday for an average of 80 cases daily. There are still 14 days left in the month, which has seen double the number of those contracting the illness in August when there were 632 cases, at an average of 20 a day.
    The latest victim is a 73-year-old Guyanese man who died at the Harrison Point Isolation Facility in St Lucy on Thursday after six days there, bringing to 57 the number of deaths associated with the virus since it was first detected here in March 2020.
    The death was announced along with the news that there were a worrying 110 new cases coming out of the 1 787 tests done by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory on Thursday.
    Yesterday, Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George, newly announced COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis and locally based English virologist Dr Brendan Larder appeared on VOB’s Down To Brass Tacks as the spiralling positive cases threatened to overrun isolation facilities and 11 quarantine hotels.
    In light of the deaths and rising cases, Larder suggested that authorities suspend the vaccination of young people to focus on the vulnerable who included the elderly and those who could become very sick or die.
    “So if you’ve got an increase in infection at that current rate, you have to then think what is the Plan B because you can’t depend on vaccinations at the moment saving the day. That is not going to happen because Barbados hasn’t got six or nine months to wait.
    “Think about putting vaccination of children on hold because vaccines in the country are limited in number and I think the real vulnerable who could become very ill, sick or even die are people who need to be targeted,” Larder said.
    He also recommended some rapid home tests be distributed so people can do the test themselves and identify whether they are infected or not as another way of taking pressure off the health care system.
    “You’re going back to the really obvious thing of you have to prevent the transmission and spread of the virus by whatever ways possible. In an ideal world, and no world is ideal, that would be a lockdown at least three to four weeks because as it has proved in the country – back in February – that it really worked in terms of slowing down the spread then.”
    George said that while the Ministry of Health had scaled up its isolation and quarantine facilities, the missing link in the mounting cases was the cooperation of the public.
    “If you don’t have that physical piece added to the mix, you can’t necessarily isolate or quarantine yourself out of the pandemic. Therefore, it is critical that the public come along and give the health care system the space it needs to recover,” he said.
    Nursing and senior citizens homes have been identified as particularly risky as should the disease enter them, it was likely to spread quickly, so the ministry’s units were working closely with them. About 80 per cent working in those homes were vaccinated and the drive continues at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Psychiatric Hospital and the geriatric hospitals.
    In addition, there have been random checks at places of worship and businesses and when school comes on board, they, too, will be scrutinised, George said.
    The demand for the vaccine, he said, was not where the authorities wanted it to be, and that meant the country was not in a good place in the COVID-19 battle.
    He pleaded with members of the public to seek help at the first sign of symptoms, revealing that two people went to the hospital with severe hypoxia – that is, they did not have the level of oxygenation for the brain and organs.
    “We have been encouraging the public that if you have symptoms and you are unclear of your symptoms, seek medical attention . . . . You are likely to require a greater effort from the health care team and when you have symptoms you are more likely to be infectious,” he said. (AC)

    Source: Nation

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  • Hello David et al,
    I’ve restarted weekly COVID-19 analysis. I am focusing on dashboard data and changes over time.

    Here is my Friday Sep 17 update:

    https://www.caribbeansignal.com/2021/09/17/covid-19-vs-barbados-september-17-weekend-data/

    Keep safe All.

    Regards,
    Amit.

    Like

  • There was a one-shot vaccine. Is there a total for the number of people receiving this one shot vaccine?

    Sometimes I wonder ‘if the number of people receiving the first vaccine’ is really the number of people receiving at least one vaccine.

    Just throwing a few terms below, so as to expand the reporting categories

    a. Fully vaccinated (1/1, 2/2)
    b. Partially vaccinated (1/2)
    c. Recieving only the first vaccine (1/1, 1/2)
    .d Recieving at least one vaccines (1/1, 1/2, 2/2)

    Note that in all four categories, subjects received a first vaccine…

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  • A 50 year old Barbadian man died of Covid19 last night. He like the the other 5 people who died recently had not been vaccinated.

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  • Is first dose only b. or c.

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  • Disgusting Lies & Propaganda TV

    @Theo the understanding is that c is short for “receiving the first dose of the vaccine” TO be pedantic, C is wrong as it suggest that a person must take 2 or more separate vaccines. Except for the Jansen vaccine all the COV-19 vaccines are 2 dose vaccines i.e. a person is not considered fully vaccinated if they only take the first dose. Multiple dose vaccines have existed for other viruses.

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  • UPDATES: COVID-19 September 18, 2021

    Meanwhile, Barbados has 96 new cases from 1 686 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory. Ninety of them are Barbadians and 22 are under age 18.

    96 new cases

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  • The COVID-19 death toll in US surpasses that of the 1918 pandemic deaths; experts say it didn’t have to happen. In a telling reminder of the devastation wrought by the pandemic, US coronavirus deaths rose Monday to more than 675,000, higher than the death toll of the 1918 influenza pandemic — and a number experts said should never have gotten so high.

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory has identified 104 new cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), comprising 38 males and 66 females. The facility conducted 1 430 tests on Sunday, September 19.

    Of these new cases, 23 people are under 18 years, and the remaining 81 are 18 and older.

    104 new cases

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  • @DLP Tv my notation is confusing
    A/B
    A number of doses received; B, maximum number of doses a patient should receive.
    1/1 a subject got his first and only dose (Astra Zeneca)
    1/2 a subject only got the first of his two doses

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  • Fifty-two males and 53 females are the island’s latest coronavirus (COVID-19) cases. The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory conducted 1 957 tests on Monday, September 20.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/09/21/105-new-virus-cases-835-people-isolation/

    Like

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