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The following comment was posted by local microbiologist Dr. Robert Lucas to another blog – Bajans Jettison Social Distancing for Cheek by Jowl. The blogmaster regards it as one of the most important points shared on Barbados Underground since the status of COVID 19 was elevated by Prime Minister Mia Mottley.

David, Barbados Underground

Let me repeat what I have stated elsewhere on the Blog.

The curfew has to rigorously enforced. Once this is done, there is no need for contact tracing. I will explain.

Those who manifest symptoms are easily managed. It is person Z who comes into contact with a person (asymptomatic or beginning to show signs) and is unaware of the fact, who poses the immediate threat. By having the curfew and rigidly enforcing it, means that person Z is localized to a fixed area.

There will be more than one person who qualifies for the nomenclature Z. Since the curfew is rigidly enforced when the Zs become ill and use the hotline, hot spots are known. There will be a number of these hot spots. There should be isolated and all persons in the vicinity of the Z’ screened and placed into mandatory quarantine. No crap about voluntary quarantine.

For this method to work, it means that very tough enforcement it needed. None of this crap about human rights and individual liberty. Human rights and so on can be dealt with after the situation is under control…


Elsewhere on the Blog, I said that a twenty-eight day curfew was needed. I explain my reasoning as follows: there would be different viral incubation times for different individuals. Twenty-eight days would appear to be time for all individuals to show manifestations of the infection.

 


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688 responses to “Local Microbiologist Calls for Curfew to be Extended to 28 Days”

  1. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    People always looking for scape goats. Next time around should be a planet-busting asteroid heading our way. Then we will have something to blame, whine, bicker about. In the end a world without people. Not a bad alternative.


  2. @John April 6, 2020 2:04 AM “I lost a cousin who I had never met just heard of in New York to the virus.”

    Sorry to hear of the death of your new York cousin.


  3. A soldier in the Barbados Defence Force was shot in the chest.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/244857/soldier-shot

  4. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    Well, it appears there is another death and 4 more infections.


  5. @ Hal,
    I’m listening to the Stephen Nolan show on radio 5. He has interviewed a number of specialists. They have given Boris a one in two chance of survival.

    PLT was it necessary at this particular time to insert the infamous quote made by Boris a couple of weeks ago?

    Leaving aside Boris, it is worth repeating that Mia screwed up by not closing the borders at least three weeks earlier in Barbados.

    If the UK were to lose their Prime Minister within the next 24 hours it would be a disaster. I fear that Barbados could face a catastrophic loss of lives with Covid-19.

    The UK with all her resources looks unable to safeguard the life of their prime minister.

  6. Freedom Crier Avatar

    EVERYONE NEEDS TO SEE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO!!

    SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING AND WATCH THE VIDEO PROVIDED … From Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, MIT PhD.,

    Did you know the chances of recovery from the coronavirus are about 98%—if you catch it? Did you know there are models showing 50% of the population may have already had it, never knew they had it, and recovered? Again, one would think this data would be widely available and reported. It isn’t. What is presented widely are numbers and warnings that scare and frighten us, and we are now being conditioned to a lot of panic and speculation. But part of the reason we are getting conditioned to a lot of panic is because of the wide range of speculation about other numbers we accept as our new fright-inducing reality, an increasingly confusing and frenzied set of numbers. And the normalization of our panic is having dire consequences and augurs for even worse. The 81 year old who died in Barbados had underlying conditions…(Barbados has 278 000 pop USA has 331 million pop) The government reassured that the 48 ventilators that are currently available “appear to be more than enough with only three of the country’s 56 COVID-19 patients in need of ventilators.” Who is trained to use and take care of ventilators in Barbados? Barbados Health Minister stated that ventilators purchased by @rihanna were seized in US; (Correction was subsequently issued indicating the exportation of 20 ventilators stopped in the US were stopped were not of Rihanna’s order but of another philanthropic order) STOP THE FAKE NEWS


  7. Silly Woman
    April 6, 2020 6:45 PM

    @John April 6, 2020 2:04 AM “I lost a cousin who I had never met just heard of in New York to the virus.”
    Sorry to hear of the death of your new York cousin.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Thanks

    I would have liked to have met him.

    Sounds like he was a character.


  8. My lips are sealed
    Have a bless night everybody

  9. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @Crusoe, you said above that “There are some peculiar things happening, I say this because I see the strange things going on that should make no sense, in normal circumstances….”

    One of those strange things were sexecs in upermarkets and other retailers in US (and elsewhere) not wanting their staff to wear masks n gloves initially… they too were at the frontline of possibly dealing with asymptomatic and sick people daily and it was incomprehensible that execs were so absurd…(and let it be CLEAR from early March I pushed this in other fora)..

    …now a number of supermarkets staffers are succumbing to COVID19 in US.

    .Early may have helped…or not…or they could have picked up the virus outside their work environment but the point is that many of these workers were senselessly exposed and should have been better protected !

    When we talk about absolutely strange actions and commentary from execs in coporate and govt circles this becomes extremely distressing and vexatious!

    We wish PM Johnson well as the COVID19 works through his personal neighborhood of the Brit community…may he have a speedy recovery and get back to being more aggresively proactive.


  10. @Mariposa April 6, 2020 6:25 AM “Sometimes i shudder at how some…minds work like a robotic engine that is only programmed to do as it was designed”

    This describes exactly how your mind works.

  11. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    Execs in supermarkets …correction


  12. ALL THE NURSES AND DOCTORS IN BARBADOS DEALING WITH VIRUS PATIENTS NEED TO BE TESTED ASAP.

    JUST GOT WORD 29 DOCTORS AND NURSES AT A VA HOSPITAL IN BOSTON FELL ILL OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS.

    3 DEATHS AND 4 IN CRITICAL SITUATION.

    MANY MORE HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE US.


  13. @peterlawrencethompson April 6, 2020 7:19 AM “The people who did not quarantine themselves behaved like selfish assholes. Why do you need the government to provide you with commonsense?”

    Maybe not selfish assholes. Maybe just not as well educated as you are. Quite a number of people who migrated to the U.K. 50 years ago had only an elementary school education, and went straight to work as laborers, factory workers, transportation and postal workers, etc.

    Not all of us had the good fortune to be a HC scholarship winning son of a physician.

    Most of our families in the 1950’s were not anywhere near there.

    Do not be too hard on these people. I suspect that they just did not know any better.


  14. @John April 6, 2020 8:33 AM “What is the recommended social distancing when around tigers?”

    ! centimeter.

    Goodbye.

  15. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    Silly has a point… they were socially engineered to believe in fairytales of the UK variety, many of them went to their graves not knowing anywhere as much as we do, they are still a lot of them left, but this disease will take many.

    “I hope Afrikan Blood sell outs leaders remember the whole generation of Afrikan Blood innocent children Who either died or were left crippled permanently from European neo colonial medicine and vaccinations experimentations during the 1960 to 1980 and beyond ….
    #EndAfricanExperimentation
    #WereNotGuineapigs

    Afrikan Blood Sister Truit”

    everywhere we have the same problem, too many black face sell out leaders.

  16. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    Wait, whatever became of the fowls, they were out in force all weekend, all of a sudden they all ran away this morning and done wih the cussing, so what is brewing now.


  17. Four critical/serious in Barbados.


  18. ” The Barbados Defence Force soldier who was shot has passed away.”

  19. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    It really don’t care who ya think ya are.

    “Mahmoud Jibril, who was Libya’s interim prime minister during the country’s uprising against longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi, has died from coronavirus, officials announced.

    Jibril tested positive for COVID-19 three days after suffering a cardiac arrest and had been in and out of consciousness during his time in the intensive care unit, a hospital official told the news outlet.”


  20. @Te Watcher April 6, 2020 10:37 AM ” with what appears to be the exception of the Saudis, more affluent countries of the Middle East.”

    Saudi Arabia, 2605 cases, 38 deaths


  21. @Miller April 6, 2020 11:47 AM “Why not go and invade Cuba its backyard enemy since 1959?”

    Because Cuba is not now and has never been the enemy of the United States.


  22. @Hal Austin April 6, 2020 1:18 PM “By the way, when are we going to see the mathematical models done by UWI?”

    Heard a UWI person speaking about the mathematical models on Sunday Brass Tacks I think. About 20 deaths if we behave ourselves. About 200 if we don’t

    But here are perfectly good mathematical models from Johns Hopkins. So unless Bajans are made from some kind of different DNA, than the usual HUMAN DNA I bet that UWI’s mathematicl model looks just like this.
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

    Data for the U.K. specifically
    48,436 cases
    4,943 deaths
    10.2% of the U.K cases have died
    7.43 deaths per 100,000 population (that is everybody, sick or well)


  23. @WURA-War-on-U April 6, 2020 5:15 PM “Silly…don’t know if you met any of your relatives who survived the 1918 grippe espagnol….but Barbados had 190 deaths…that information should be made public, ”

    My sweet granny, was born in 1879 and died in 1969, so she was 39 in 1918, and I was almost an adult when she died, and we lived just 1/2 a mile apart during all of my childhood. But alas we never discussed sickness. She may never have been sick in her life. She continued doing paid agricultural work until she was past 80, and worked a piece of her own land, and did all of her own housekeeping. I don’t recall my father speaking of any illnesses she had either. She was very healthy, as was my father who lived even longer that she did. Never the less I am staying indoors, not tempting fate, and being really creative with the groceries which I have on hand.

    I tend to eat better when I am forced to be creative. Since March 12 I have eaten only my own cooking.


  24. Some may find the extract below of interest.

    Coronavirus can stay on plastic for 72 hours and why keeping two metres apart might not be enough: What scientists have learned about the deadly bug during pandemic
    Three months ago, most of us had never heard of the Covid-19 coronavirus
    Now, there are more than a million people infected around the world
    Our scientific understanding of the virus is advancing at a remarkable pace
    By FIONA MACRAE FOR THE DAILY MAIL

    PUBLISHED: 22:40 BST, 6 April 2020 | UPDATED: 00:04 BST, 7 April 2020

    WHY THE TWO-METRE RULE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH

    Social distancing guidance is to keep two metres away from people we don’t live with. This rule is thought to be based on experiments from the 1930s that suggested droplets released from coughs and sneezes can travel between one and two metres.

    But this understanding may be outdated. In an experiment to be shown this week, led by the Health and Safety Executive, a cough from a medical manikin called Violet provides a graphic illustration of just how easily and how far coronavirus particles can spread.

    In the demonstration, Violet coughs up a liquid laced with a dye that shows up under ultraviolet light. The dye is meant to reveal how droplets containing coronavirus particles are propelled through the air when we cough.

    ‘You see thousands of droplets coming out of Violet’s mouth, with some reaching the ceiling and the far wall, which is at least two metres away,’ says Dr Guddi Singh, a paediatrician in London who expects to be redeployed to the adult intensive care unit at any moment.

    ‘Some of these droplets land on my hand, even though I am not in the direct line of the cough. If these droplets contained the virus, I would be infected. It is incredibly contagious.

    ‘The experiment shows me why we need social distancing of at least two metres,’ she says. ‘But even at that, you are just on the fringe of where the spread could be happening.’

    Indeed, new research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests that two metres may not be nearly far enough; that coronavirus particles can be propelled up to eight metres by sneezes and six metres by coughs.

    Some experts suggest that the larger droplets in saliva and mucus — the ones believed to carry Covid-19 — will fall safely to the ground within two metres. However, the U.S. researchers said their experiment calls into question our understanding of what a safe distance might be to protect ourselves from coronavirus infection.

    Another report even suggests we may have more than coughs and sneezes to worry about. The prestigious National Academy of Sciences in the U.S. recently warned that the virus may also be spread by the fine mist we produce when we talk and breathe. One study suggests this can spread genetic material from the coronavirus more than two metres away from patients. This raises the possibility that the virus can linger in the air and potentially infect someone who walks by later.

    All this research has prompted the World Health Organisation (WHO) to start a review of its advice on the use of face masks.



  25. Wily Coyote
    April 6, 2020 9:55 AM

    Hal Austin April 6, 2020 8:27 AM
    “Why is the US amassing troops around Venezuela,”
    If I’ve read news and video reports correctly FANCE & BRITIAN also have Navy vessels making up the congregation in the area, hummmmm. Not good timing for any kind of military confrontation in this time of COVID 19. Not much info showing up an Google so do not know at this time if reports are creditable.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    All they need to do is send a few cruise ships and the Venezuelan navy will self destruct!!

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/venezuela-navy-cruise-liner-incident-intl/index.html


  26. The virus is hardly spreading in Barbados. Soon almost all those infected will be in perfect health again.

    Already in May we will be full of tourists from UK and USA. I am already looking forward to the many tourists from the cruise ships.


  27. Silly Woman
    April 6, 2020 9:22 PM

    I would be very careful with the models. Accurate models rely on a wide spread and depth of sound data. This virus is only four months into recognised life cycle. Actual life cycle is possibly longer, if reports are to be believed. But tracked data is only for a few months.

    The second point is that virus load, a term I use as a layperson, but I think the reader should understand to what I refer, is clearly a major factor. This I say, due to the number of doctors and nurses internationally who have succumbed to the virus, either infection, recover or actually died.

    Even Ebola, with proper protection did not claim so many doctors, did it?

    This indicates that repeated and strong exposure is highly risky. Similarly, in dense areas of close human contact, such as New York and care homes, the virus load would be heavier, surely? This explains the serious situation in New York.

    Due to this, I would be very cautious about underestimating the potential impact on Barbados at this stage. I have seen reports on social media, of some saying that they have had symptoms corresponding to this virus, many having seen the doctor or attending the hospital.

    Probably the virus has been here a few months, very likely considering the travel industry and the volume of passengers traversing here between November and February. After all, the official word is that more than half of the people who get it will have only mild to moderate symptoms.

    At this point any statement on predicted illness or death is a bold one, no one has a handle on this virus as yet.


  28. @ Crusoe April 7, 2020 12:19 AM

    “The second point is that virus load, a term I use as a layperson,”

    You have used the correct scientific term. Normally the term used is microbial load when referring to microbes in general. In this case since one is dealing specifically with a virus one can use viral load. The viral load refers to the number of viral particles present in a known amount/volume. It maybe one million/mL(milli-liter). The greater the number of particles, the greater the inoculation potential..

    A well reasoned post.


  29. Thanks TheOgazerts

    What the links do is to challenge Peter’s recommendation to do mass testing. The logistics seem impossible from the NJ experience so far.


  30. We must be grateful to the Cubans for sending 100 nurses (I thought there were also doctors) to help us out in a time of need. But have you seen the group of Cuban nurses visiting the Cubana monument today.
    What happened to social distance, especially after the theatre of health checks at the airport? And what has that to do with Commissiong? The man is a political fraud and should be removed from public office. There may even be a case against him for flouting the lockdown regulations.
    That assembly was irresponsible, reckless and highly dangerous, putting public health at risk. This government has lost control of the management of the crisis. Who gave permission for that march?


  31. rueben, you also had to be healthy before, but if you had diabetes, asthma or cancer, or any illness that weaken your ammune system you wouldve be more ill or die. Some people have the virus but their bodies fight it off. Take your vitamin c people, not a lot though, in moderation.

  32. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    The DOCTORS and NURSES and other frontline workers deserve ULTIMATE praise for saving this scottish man’s life, they are the ones risking their lives every minute of every day. All over the world governments are working hard to get supplies to fight the virus, all are trying their best, none are doing any more than the other…it is a damn pandemic, stop pimping for personal and individual praise, ya are not doing anymore than anyone else…

    Since last week this man gave an interview to a british paper about the level of care he got at the Army facility…they will not be able to save everyone, but they are trying..

    “As for the dedication and compassion from the medical and nursing staff at Paragon, they have gone above and beyond the call of duty and this island should be very, very proud of their selflessness and fearlessness.” (MB).”

  33. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    The nation pimp newspaper now need to interview the other 5 people who were released and get their take on how their treatement for the virus went at the quarantine facilities….the scottish patient was not the only one released..

    stop being tacky and unprofessional…you do not only interview the tourism potential, how dumb is that..

  34. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    “This government has lost control of the management of the crisis.”

    but they are still trying to big up themselves as though they are doing more than any other government in the world who is ALSO battling the virus and they are using their useless government pimp newspaper to do it….they are so low crawling they don’t know when to stop, they are not team players, were not socialized that way, that is why they are getting everything wrong as it relates to how they are caring FOR THEIR OWN PEOPLE in the midst of a pandemic…

  35. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    “She was very healthy, as was my father who lived even longer that she did. Never the less I am staying indoors, not tempting fate, and being really creative with the groceries which I have on hand.

    I tend to eat better when I am forced to be creative. Since March 12 I have eaten only my own cooking.”

    Best thing you can do for YOU AND YOURS..


  36. The COVID-19 experience of 2 passengers on Diamond Princess in Japan.


  37. Expect local media to be the backbone of govt propaganda as more deaths increase and people become infected

  38. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    We will see many changes going forward, Prince Donald knows when to do what is necessary…..as many of us are understanding, this is a WAR being fought on several fronts, Covid is only one, when ya see the cousin in the palace dressed down in BATTLE GREEN for her speech, ya done know it is on.

    https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-trump-labels-white-supremacist-group-as-terrorists-for-first-time-20200407-h2fbfmkgx5f4jelmndrnspho5y-story.html

    “A white supremacist group known as the Russian Imperial Movement was designated as a global terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department on Monday, marking the first time that the government has applied the label to a white-supremacist organization.

    The Russian Imperial Movement, or RIM, operates a pair of facilities in St. Petersburg that offer paramilitary training to neo-Nazis and white supremacists, according to Nathan A. Sales, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator. RIM’s recruiting efforts focus specifically on Europeans, but they’ve also reportedly brought in Americans, too.

    This move from the Trump administration will extend sanctions against RIM, targeting three of its leaders and giving the Treasury Department the authority to freeze any of their assets coming through the U.S. financial system. It will also allow Homeland Security to deny U.S. entry to people with ties to RIM.”

  39. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/244864/bajans-die-ny-covid-19

    Very unfortunate…but FRONTLINE WORKERS can only try their very best, with what they have to work with…the enemy is real, invisible, but extremely deadly.

  40. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    More the reason for the PIMP NEWSPAPER…to interview the other Corona patients who have RECOVERED and who are mostly LOCALS…so that the general population will know EXACTLY WHAT THEY ARE DEALING WITH…

    this is how you interview survivors…not for the tourism value or to promote useless politicians.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8195085/Coronavirus-survivors-Boris-Johnson-message-hope-Prime-Minister-taken-intensive-care.html

    “Two men who have survived the coronavirus infection and spent time on intensive care wards have shared their experience of fighting the disease as Boris Johnson battles the killer infection in hospital.

    Matt Dockray, 39, described the illness as ‘the most horrible experience you will go through,’ when he appeared on Good Morning Britain on Tuesday.

    The father-of-one said: ‘It’s a horrible, horrible experience. You’re very lonely. You don’t have any friends or family there so you don’t have that emotional, personal support you rely on in your hardest times.’

    Choosing to offer a message of hope, father-of-two Andrew Hodge said: ‘I want people to realise they can survive this’.

  41. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, you are touting unproven remedies from the Jamaican bro of the garlic, tumeric and ginger 😂😏.

    Great that he recovered but has CDC tested this clinically !

    But seriously, I have one nephew and three cousins who also used it to their own anecdotal success… the latter a family had ALL tested positive; the nephew hadn’t but worked in health care so could have been…

    All that to say, that jokes aside, these homeopathic remedies do do their thing … BUT… will not work for everyone of course!

    I would like to hear HOW the bro prepared HIS compound… Will check to see if provides that detail.

    Health Stores must be doing a roaring business… They are considered “essential” and can open I presume.

    I gone.

  42. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, I will review the links to which you refer but based on awareness generally of NJ I don’t fully agree that the Covid19 spread in that state necessarily challenges @PLT’s strong stance on aggressive testing.

    We have gone over this repeatedly but simply stated the vastness on any state or country itself should and cannot be a barrier to tests per se (assuming availability of kits).

    Washington state is much more vast a spread than NJ so too some place like Wyoming or Georgia for that matter.

    One of the major issues for a place like NJ of course is that thousands of its residents work in NY… So they were commuting from that hot spot back to the garden communities .

    In very brief summary places like NJ and Long Island or Westchester county north of NYC (other communities whose residents often work in NYC) are still comprised of clusters of towns … Some very active and populace some small and more self contained.

    A testing regimen organized to suit your town dynamics can be still very effective…

    The evidence of this style testing was seen in the New Rochelle, NY episode. A perfect example of managing an issue in a large metropolis on a singular town/community basis

    I gone.


  43. @ Silly Woman April 6, 2020 9:02 PM
    “@Miller April 6, 2020 11:47 AM “Why not go and invade Cuba its backyard enemy since 1959?”
    Because Cuba is not now and has never been the enemy of the United States.”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Guess yours is a mere ‘tongue-in-cheek’ response, right?

    Should it be rephrased to imply that America is Cuba’s enemy still camping in Bastita’s former front house at Guantanamo Bay?

    How else would you explain the Bay of Pigs invasion or the trade and other embargoes still in place against Cuba as if its name has changed to Iran while communist and dictatorial China and Russia can freely attract investment from American capitalists once those on the capitol hill can get their election campaigning contributions?


  44. Mariposa
    April 7, 2020 7:25 AM

    Expect local media to be the backbone of govt propaganda as more deaths increase and people become infected

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Why you wishing ill on your fellow Barbadians?

    This is a problem we collectively face.


  45. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196123/Swedens-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-100.html

    A prime example of what happens when ya take a laid back attitude to a disease that is killing tens of thousands everywhere…am sure the Swedes will now get with the program since US’ death toll is now a horrible 11,000 people.

  46. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @TLSNApril 6, 2020 7:03 PM
    “… was it necessary at this particular time to insert the infamous quote made by Boris a couple of weeks ago?”
    ++++++++++++++++++
    Yes, I find it necessary to remind people of his character.

    Boris Johnson knows is that no matter how much suffering he causes in the world, later on, when he gets old or sick or dies, so many people will say “Awww, but he’s just a human being, a father/mother etc.” and all the evil he has done is swept under the carpet.

    Not me. I don’t forgive or forget. I will not mourn the lying psychopath for whom the suffering of so many was acceptable.

    Until he got it, Boris thought COVID-19 was a problem for people older and poorer than himself, that other people would have to suffer their loved ones “dying before their time” as they took their “last gasp” while the nation “took it on the chin.”


  47. @Crusoe April 7, 2020 12:19 AM

    All true.

    But Johns Hopkins is a reliable medical school, and their modelling is the best available to lay people, that i have seen so far.

    But you are right. It is still early days, and we won’t know all of the details until this is over and retrospective studies have been published.

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