Banner promoting anonymous crime reporting with a phone and contact number 1 800 TIPS (8477), featuring the Crime Stoppers logo and a QR code for submitting tips.

← Back

Your message to the BLOGMASTER was sent

There is an uncomfortable truth unfolding for many countries in the region: a declining population. The video highlights this growing concern by referencing data from Jamaica, but the issues raised apply to many countries, including Barbados.

It seems the prospect of bringing children into the world no longer feels exciting or feasible for many families. Added to this is the ongoing drain on the population caused by the emigration of trained professionals, creating a double whammy effect.

As the situation continues to unfold, there are serious implications for national tax bases and, by extension, social security funds, both of which threaten the quality of life. Highlighted in this space many times is the current threat to our National Insurance Social Security Service (NISSS), formerly the NIS. For anyone following developments in recent years, it is evident that our governments are unsure how to address the problem. The strategy has largely been to increase eligibility ages and contribution rates, which is not a sustainable option.

Barbadian workers already pay one of the highest NISSS contribution rates in the region at 11%, with eligibility for pensions sliding north of age 67 with age 70 likely to become the new eligibility target in the near future. The next NISSS Actuarial Review should make for interesting reading.

Another major decision- pending for several years-is whether to boost the local population through immigration.

Thanks to Bentley for the video reference.

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crownWilliam Shakespeare

Related Link: Starcom Network


Discover more from Barbados Underground

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

23 responses to “NISSS threat: Barbados facing population decline”


  1. Why would populations in the region not decline when the entire Western world which all regional countries micmic have long been facing declining and aging populations for decades.

    A notable exception has been the USA. And that has only been so because, until recently, because a critical mass of young people misguidedly sought to go to America. Donald Drumpf has now put paid to that.

    Like Covid19 we might want to give some credence to those who have long argued that, like the Family Planning issue, population declined has long been a racist construct. A fascist ideal!

    Certainly, it does not help when Barbados insists on electing a dictator three times over. A dictator who is not known to have borne any children herself and remains the póster child of the wokeist bitches in Western capitals.


  2. Where would children come from in Sodom and Gomorrah?
    Steupsss!!!


  3. There still exist many countries with growing populations in the world. Mainly in Africa and Asia but some in latam region.


  4. I appears prime minister Mottley has moved to address the population growth issue, from the 1 July 26 Barbadians and Guyanese will be able to travel using only national ID.


  5. Very true. In one right now. The exception/s sometime/s prove/s the rule.

    And the same forces which have delivered Barbados and most of the Western world into chronic and declining populations are working overtime to introduce their anti-people, anti poor people especially, structures into all these increasing population places as well.

    Western imperialism, neo-liberalism and globalization, a White supremacist logic! But most Bajans seem to lack the balls to openly drive any nail into the White people pokerkz.

    So when you make one point the contervailing evidence requires a presence as well.

    When are serious people going to demand from this elected government that concerted efforts be made to produce more children.

    For if this is not a national imperative, nothing else matters. Barbados will never do so because it’s against the civilizational soft war being waged on people of colour.

    Instead, this government will make acceptable proposal to the international agencies about imcreasing immigration which furthers the destruction of what was Barbados.

  6. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    “The next NISSS Actuarial Review should make for interesting reading”
    I’m not very confident there will be a next.

  7. Terence Blackett Avatar
    Terence Blackett

    BUILDING ON DR PHILLIPS’ THEORY OF #RockBottom – WORLD, CONTINENTAL, NATIONAL & LOCAL LEADERS HAVE ZERO ANSWERS TO THE FLOTILLA OF CRISES CONFRONTING MANKIND – YET THEY CONTINUE TO SPIN A DIABOLICAL YARN THAT HOGTIES THE MASSES WITH DISTRACTIONS, DEFLECTIONS, & DUMBING-DOWN AS MANY AS WOULD DRINK THE MAUBY CUP OF HEMLOCK

    The post-WAR* years saw a “SPIKE” in population growth…

    Between 1950 & 2000, the global population more than doubled, jumping from 2.5 billion to over 6 billion souls!!!

    Within 10 years of Japan legalizing abortion in 1949, its birth rate dropped by half while its economy stabilized…

    Similarly, in Europe & N. America, the post-war economic boom & medical advances allowed for a spike in births coupled with a sharp decline in infant mortality…

    The growth spurt was however short-lived!!!

    By the 1960s, the “BABY BOOM” had ended, and a new era, the “BABY-BUST”, began, setting the stage for the population decline we see today!!!

    While the rest of the world is worrying about a “SLOWDOWN”, the Caribbean is already in a late state of “DEPOPULATION”” crisis!!!

    The “STEADY DECLINE” we see globally is actually a “SUDDEN COLLAPSE” when viewed against the region’s historical context!!!

    Since WW2, Barbados has seen a steady decline in its ability to reproduce itself – culminating in the current negative growth!!!

    Barbados is the canary in the coal mine for the entire region…

    Its statistics reveal a nation already well into the decline phase…

    In 2019, the population was stagnating around 273,000, (THE YEAR BEFORE THE PLANDEMIC) – having grown by only some 35,000 people in the previous [50] years…

    By 2024, (4-YEARS INTO COVID-19 DEBACLE), 1 in 4 Bajans was over 60!!!

    The “BOOM” v “NOW” paints a very ominous picture – for in 1970, at the height of my senior years in High school, the birth rate then was around 20.3 per 1,000, driven by a “NATURAL INCREASE” of 11.6…

    By 2018, the “RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE” had “FALLEN” into negative (-0.4), meaning deaths were already outpacing births!!!

    The #Futurists suggest that by (2050), projections from the UN & local officials predict that by then, over half of the population will be over 60, & the total population is expected to drop by 2050 given the mathematical modelling…

    During the 2020 #PlanDEMIC, Barbados POP. stood around 288K – a +8,000 modest increase to the peak…

    Based on projections, by 2050, the POP. will possibly fall back to 2010 levels of 270K with a fall of some -7,000, & the numbers returning to 2010 levels or lower!!!

    This population decline is being driven by a dramatic demographic shift.

    The model reveals a future where the population structure is completely inverted, resembling a “PYRAMID” standing on its head!!!

    In 2010, the population had a broad base of young people, which is typical for a growing country…

    By 2050, the pyramid will have a bulging top of elderly citizens & a narrow base of children!!!

    PERMIT ME TO CALL THIS EMERGING PHENOMENON THE “Great Inversion” OF BARBADOS AGE STRUCTURE

    0 -14 years (CHILDREN), will be around 33.2% of the POP. (2010), but fall dramatically to 15.0% by (2050), a -18.2% change!!!

    15 – 59 years (WORKING AGE), stood @58.3% in (2010), but by (2050), the numbers fall to 49.6%, a loss of -8.7%!!!

    60+ years (Senior Citizens), stood @8.5% in (2010), but is projected to increase to 35.4%, by (2050), catapulting the numbers to +26.9% of the population!!!

    As you can see from the modelling, the number of senior citizens is projected to more than “TRIPLE”, while the number of children will be cut in half…

    By 2050, the 60+ age group will form a larger share of the population than children for the first time in the country’s history…

    THE MODELLING I HAVE DONE HAS NOT FACTORED IN THE DEATH STATS FROM COVID-19 & THE ONGOING CRISIS OF HEALTHCARE IN THE NATION WHERE NCD DISEASES LIKE CANCER DIABETES ET AL IS RAVAGING THE COUNTRY

    I have not included the “STATS” on violence & “MURDERS”!!!

    So it makes for grim reading, all around!!!

    Maybe, the leaders will take into account that the picture being painted is indeed an existential threat to the economy of the country & the well-being of the citizens!!!


  8. They can’t even produce audited financials for years now and they talking about what they need? STUPES


  9. ON THE VERGE OF WHAT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS AN GLOBAL APOCALYPSE – REVERSING THE GLOBAL TREND OF BIRTHS & DEATHS IS NIGH IMPOSSIBLE! THERE ARE MANY DEMOGRAPHIC SCIENTISTS WHO BELIEVE IN A FALSE NARRATIVE, CLUTCHING AT STRAW BALES OF HOPE & THEY ARE THE SAME ONES WHO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS PIE IN THE SKY WHEN IT COMES TO REVERSING WHAT IS CURSE & A PLAGUE UPON THE HOUSES OF MANKIND

    This is NOT* pessimism – these are portentous anomalies staring us in the face!!!

    The post-WAR* boom was an anomaly (4 WHILE GETTING A *FOOP* WAS THERAPY* – WOMEN BRED LIKE RABBITS)!!!

    The current slowdown toward “ZERO” or negative growth is actually more consistent with the long-term arc of human history (SOMETHING THAT EVEN HISTORIANS & NEO-SOCIAL THEORISTS GET THEIR KNICKERS IN A TWIST OVER)!!!

    For about 1,600 years following the collapse of the Roman Empire, global population growth was relatively flat…

    The explosive growth of the “Industrial & Post-War” eras appears to be the outlier…

    As we enter a post-growth era, modern institutions, from pension (FUND) systems to housing markets, are all struggling to adapt to a world with fewer young people & more retirees…

    THIS IS WHY THE PROPOSED AGE OF ROBOTICS EXPECT TO BALANCE THIS EQUATION – BUT IT WILL NOT WORK

    A discussion for another day!!!

    The trend in Barbados & the wider Caribbean mirrors the global pattern we discussed earlier, but with one crucial caveat – this region is not just “EXPERIENCING” a slowdown, it is actively bracing for a “DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS” that is arriving much faster than in developed nations!!!

    This phenomenon is often called the “CARIBBEAN TWIST” on aging!!!

    Similar to the global factors (education, urbanization, women in the workforce) the causes are the same, but the Caribbean adds a unique factor, called – “EMIGRATION”…

    Unlike the US, UK, or Europe, the Caribbean has historically “EXPORTED” its excess workers…

    Since #WWII, massive emigration to the UK, US, & Canada relieved population pressure, but now that safety valve has become a drain, stripping the region of skilled young adults…

    Thus with such an “ACCELERATED CYCLE, the region has moved from a “YOUNG POPULATION” to an “OLDER POPULATION” in a flash!!!

    While it took France “115 YEARS” to double its elderly share, it will take many Caribbean nations only “30 YEARS”!!!

    I HOPE THE LEADERS THIS MORNING ARE NOT* CHOKING ON THEIR CEREALS, OR MAYBE*

    Hence, with such changing households, the fertility decline has led to a sharp reduction in household size…

    NOTWITHSTANDING, CHANGING SEXUAL PRACTICES OF WOMEN ON BIRTH CONTROL INJECTIONS & THE LIKE – NOT TO MENTION, MULTIPLE SEX PARTNERS (BOTH WAYS), TO FACILITATE THEIR LIFESTYLES – THE MONOGAMOUS TREND OF 2 PARENT FAMILIES WITH 2.3 CHILDREN IS NOW A MYTHOLOGY ACROSS MANY DEMOGRAPHICS

    Therefore, with fewer children per family, yet the Caribbean still maintains “COMPLEX EXTENDED FAMILY STRUCTURES”, often because female-headed households remain so prevalent!!!

    This isn’t just “STATS” for demographers – it is a looming economic disaster that regional GOV(s) are scrambling to address!!!

    So with the challenge of a “COLLAPSING NIS” & fewer workers paying in vs. more retirees drawing pensions – Minister Husbands warned that without change, the National Insurance Scheme will collapse!!!

    Then there is the issue of “FISCAL DRAIN”, given that an “AGING POPULACE” will increase deficits for health & pension systems by almost 4% of GDP just due to demographics…

    What few are factoring in is the state of “WORKFORCE EXHAUSTION” & the “potential support ratio” (WORKERS TO RETIREES) is plummeting, with Barbados, projected to drop to a crushing 2.0 by 2050!!!

    Now, in a “GIG ECONOMY”, we have what is being called “MANAGED MIGRATION”, because the “MOTTLEY-CREW GOV*” is unable to grow their own, the GOV* has had to turn to a controversial solution – importing workers!!!

    Barbados explicitly introduced “MANAGED MIGRATION” policies to attract skilled foreigners – just to keep the lights on!!!

    In short, while the rest of the world is worrying about a slowdown, the Caribbean is already in a state of “DEPOPULATION” crisis!!!

    The “STEADY DECLINE” we see globally is actually a “SUDDEN COLLAPSE” when viewed against the region’s historical context!!!

    Conclusion is stark!!!

    The horses have “BOLTED”!!!

    No “VISIONARY LEADERS” will arrive anytime soon – to “SAVE” anyone!!!

    #EnjoyTheRide – the last stop is in pelting distance!!!

    #OnThatEyeOpeningNote

    ##IMDUN*

  10. Terence Blackett Avatar
    Terence Blackett

    Y’ALL WOULD HAVE SEEN THIS ON YOUR TV SCREENS & LET’S HOPE THAT THIS CONCEPT OF MANAGED MIGRATION DOES NOT PROVE TO BE AN ACHILLES HEEL

    #BonChance


  11. What is so desirable about increasing the current population?

    It would be one thing if life was good, …if the future looked positive, and if there was a clear PURPOSE to it all…

    But apart from providing future brass bowls to take in the shiite being dumped (in the form of loans, loss of sovereignty to strangers, disenfranchisement, and poverty) on us by our POLITICIANS, Lawyers, the Church and the albino-centric businesses, why would any thinking persons be inclined to bring offspring into this mess…?

    Wuh …if reproduction did not involve such ‘addictive procedures’ – our population growth would likely be headed to extinction by default.

    It is no wonder then that we have so many ‘Petras’ and ‘Wikkies’ in the damned place.
    …Or that the childless politicians are seeking to import immigrants to fund their future pensions…
    Sodom and Gomorrah all over again…

    What a place!


  12. When ever I hear this foolish excuse for where the NISS is its funny that I don’t ever hear about the $1.4 billion that was written off in the restructuring. Over 33% of the TOTAL ASSETS GONE IN ONE SWIPE. Never a squeak either about the projects like the Grotto that cost per square foot what houses in Sandy Lane cost to build and today renting for peppercorn rent. Also what happen bout the restructuring of pensions for ministers that was to happen years ago? Finally how wunna know what the NISSS want and don’t even know what it’s audited annual surplus/deficit has been yearly for the last ten years? The NISSS don’t want no more people, it want running like a business and not the state piggy bank. If that is not done any additional revenue will get blown the same way.

    Finally don’t let me hear no foolish talk about what was written off is only 3 years or some foolishness so of the funds take. Wunna know 3 year of sales with a fund only earning 7% say is nearly 16 years of net revenue! 16 YEARS OF COLLECTING PAYMENTS FROM THE PUBLIC TO MAKE BACK WHAT WAS WRITTEN OFF ASSUMING THE FUND EVEN NETTING 7%! CHEW ON THAT ONE.

    Wunna must really think all we born big and stupid or that all we parents raise sheep and not humans.


  13. Bushie

    Why be so defeatist?

    Are you not the same said mammon who dreams about milk and honey in the clouds after an impossible rebirth from the great beyond with that much vaunted great multitude.

    Certainly, if these forelong circumstances can be still dreamt, is it not infinitely more possible for those here who demand that the only heaven we’ve known should be enjoyed even in the worst of times?

    And if such entries into those gates of heaven produced many immaculate conceptions, might one of them too not be able to walk on water and attempt to solve all the problems which your gutter religion has wrought.

    Bushie your old tail, like the quintessential Bajan, like old ass people who envy the young people for doing what your advanced age prevents, remains well disposed to pretending that there is something special about having one year’s experience eighty times over.


  14. @ John A
    Boss, …the fact that this shiite only seems to bother you, Northern Observer, Bushie, the Blog-master (when it gets over bearing), and a VERY FEW others, is the thing that tells this bushman that our donkeys are as good as dead.

    At least with the USA, there are a few voices ACTIVELY calling out the jobby…
    At least there are SOME in the Press who are willing to stand up for TRUTH…
    At least a few representatives in Parliament DO STAND UP and say ‘Enuff is too much!!’

    …But not ‘bout here!!!

    A whole lotta shiite hounds willing to endorse, absorb, and even promote the lotta shiite…

    We have NO PRESS. Just a lotta lackies hoping for a handout on the side, with editors who have skeletons in their OWN cupboards – and who hence kowtow to the system.
    …and FOREIGN owners who DARE NOT cross clear lines – least they be sent packing…

    When we can find ourselves in a WORSE state than the USA under the satanic pedophile Trump, …we should not be surprised that NO accounting is forthcoming for the now BILLIONS in tax dollars that have been frittered away by our own mafia bosses.

    …and then always with some shiite distraction …like window tint, open integration, $100 welfare grants, and $40 MILLION Carifesta parties…

    …and the BBs suck it all up – and hope for change.

    What a place!!!


  15. @John A

    It is amazing we have so much confidence in a government where our governance framework as it relates to complying with financial rules is poor. It is a great irony.


  16. @John A

    Why do you bother? The average Barbadian does not give a damn about the state of the NISSS Scheme until it is time for their eligibility.


  17. @Bush Tea

    The transition of Walter Blackman has left a void as a spokesman on the shortcomings of the NISSS.


  18. @ David

    We have a generation of sheep in search of a shepherd to follow its that simple. Who ever throws the best election party gets the vote. Who hands out the fattest envelope gets the vote. We are self serving to the point of irrelevance nearly. But as long as every one of the above are entitled to one vote, the powers that be are secure. I mean let’s be honest what in our society would force them to change? What will force them to be financially accountable when only a handful demand answers?


  19. @John A

    Equally scary are the many that have disengaged from the system and in the process renege on their civic responsibility.


  20. @ David

    That is so true, I remember discussing with Walter on this blog the effect the restructuring was going to have in years to come. His words were “not enough people are bothered about it.” If he only knew how right he would sadly turn out to be.


  21. @John A

    He also has a similar concern about the lack of concern we had about the slack governance how a maverick player was allowed to engage with government about COVID vaccines. We subsequently found out that the minister of healthy the time pleaded ignorance and has since been elevated to the highest office in the country, that of President.

    Piss in the blogmaster’s pocket.


  22. Steady decline in birth rates for six decades

    BARBADOS is confronting a deepening demographic crisis marked by falling birth rates, an ageing population and looming labour shortages.

    Senior officials gave that warning yesterday as Government opened a two-day workshop aimed at developing an implementation plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040.

    Speaking during the opening ceremony of the Capacity Building Workshop for the Development of an Implementation Plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040 at the Lloyd Erskine Sandiford Centre, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development, Jennifer Hunte, revealed that Barbados has recorded a steady decline in birth and fertility rates for more than six decades.

    “The main findings of this 2021 report indicate Barbados has had a consistent decrease in birth and fertility rates since 1960. The fertility rate has been below replacement rate since 1980. Most CARICOM countries are facing similar declines in birth and fertility rates,” Hunte said.

    She explained that findings from the Population Situational Analysis Report painted a troubling picture for the island’s long-term economic and social sustainability.

    “Barbados has one of the lowest population growth rates at 24 per cent in CARICOM between 1960 and 2018. In 2018, Barbados had the highest population density of the CARICOM member states. Migration via the CARICOM Single Market and Economy has not significantly increased the population of working age,” she said.

    Hunte warned that the country’s ageing population was expected to place severe pressure on health care systems, social services and the labour force over the coming decades.

    “Over the next 30 years, the dependency ratio will grow to nearly two dependents per person of working age with a higher presence of elderly dependents by 2050. Care of the elderly currently accounts for just under 20 per cent of total health expenditure and is expected to nearly double in demand for financing,” she noted.

    Hunte added that the report projected “an eventual decline in those of working age and rate of labour force participation, workforce shortages as retirees outnumber new entrants to the workforce, decline in savings rates as older persons draw down on their assets to support themselves, decline in productivity and innovation and increased burden of care not only for family members, but also for the state through social security and social protection programmes.”

    She said projections previously suggested Barbados’ population would peak at approximately 290 000 people between 2029 and 2030 before declining, but the 2021 Population and Housing Census showed contraction had already begun with an estimated 269 090 people.

    She explained that Government subsequently introduced the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040 to provide a framework to address the country’s demographic challenges in a coordinated way.

    She said the workshop, held in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund, was aimed at turning policy into action.

    “This workshop is a critical step in converting policy into action and ensuring it integrates with other policies and programmes of Government. It is our hope that through collaboration and consultation with our partners, by the end of the next two days, we are able to move towards execution with a realistic and actionable implementation plan,” she stressed.

    Director of the Sub-Regional Office for the Caribbean at the United Nations Population Fund, Harold Robinson, commended Barbados for taking proactive steps to confront demographic changes affecting the region.

    “Population trends are not simply demographic matters, they are key development drivers. Who we are as a population, how many we are, where we live, how we age, how families evolve and how people move across borders, all of these shape a country’s future trajectory,” Robinson said.

    He said declining fertility rates, population ageing, changing dependency structures and labour force pressures were already reshaping Barbados’ social and economic landscape.

    “These trends are not unique to Barbados. Many countries across the Caribbean are facing similar transitions. However, Barbados is among the leaders in the region in asking the critical question how do we prepare today for the demographic realities of tomorrow?” he said.

    Robinson stressed that demographic resilience required countries to anticipate and adapt to changing population patterns.

    “Demographic trends are not destiny. With strategic investments and evidence-informed planning, countries can shape outcomes and create opportunities. A shrinking labour force can be addressed through investments in skills and managed migration. Population ageing can stimulate innovation in the care economy. Family well-being policies can strengthen resilience across generations,” he said.

    He added that the workshop was intended to create a practical roadmap for implementation.

    “This workshop is not simply about creating another planning document. It is about translating evidence into action. It is about moving from diagnosis to delivery,” Robinson said. ( TRY)

    Source: Nation

The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.

Trending

Discover more from Barbados Underground

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading