BB Weather Watch – A Case for Preparation

The blogmaster senses from the evidence of recent past and instinct, the weather pattern is changing for the worse as it relates to Barbados. We can debate if God is a Bajan or whether the weather avoids this rock because of natural elements that conspire to  influence the path systems on the approach to the archipelago will track. Whatever the reason we need to do as much planning as it practical to mitigate what is possible.

The most recent satellite image from a credible source is posted for our information. The blogmaster will pinned this post at the top of blog if required.

weather watch.png

154 comments

  • Wind blew over the rain guage early this morning but until it did here there was just 6 parts.

    Got it wedged between two big rocks so should not move in a hurry!!

    Check rainfall, windspeed, R.H. etc at this site.

    http://www.barbadosweather.org/

    So far for the month on this site 51.2 mm, just over 2 inches.

    Normally we would expect way over 2 inches in September, like north of 7 inches!!

    Still got 8 days and Karen which now has a name and a coordinate (11.9N, 60.2W) and is past us might fill the tank.

    There is also the other wave expected to intensify as it moves away from the African coast.

    It looks like it is at about the latitude of Karen so it could pass north of us by the time it gets to our neck of the woods.

    Too early to tell, no coordinates assigned.

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  • Once again Barbados has been lucky due to a trough north west of us.With Karen that break in the High Pressure system occurred later than with Dorian…resulting in that WNW pull after it passed 60 degrees west with the Island experienced strong and gusty winds from the eastern semicircle.
    With Dorian ,that break occurred around 59 degrees west resulting in showers and gusty winds in the eastern semicircle again …note.. only St.Michael and St.James were spared from those gusty winds and showers as they were to the western semicircle..
    That wave coming off the African Coast according to the latest GFS model run ( 0600Z ) is expected to drift west until about 40 degrees west where it will then be pulled northwestward and then northwards due to another break in the High Pressure system to the north.

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  • The High Pressure you speak of stops the natural northward movement due to Coriolis Effect.

    Once it is no longer there, the natural movement is to the north.

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  • Karen is worse than Dorian, at least for Barbados.

    Dorian’s extremes were in the Atlantic Karen’s were directed to the South Coast, like Janet!!

    But Karen was below 11,9 Latitude, over 60 nautical miles away and also weak.

    So we got off with a slight touch.

    … another way in which God helps us.

    Trinidad got whatever chop Karen had,

    St. Vincent and Grenada will get some too.

    But God will watch over them too.

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  • In 2004 when Ivan passed south by the time it had reached 11.9 North where Karen was this morning it was already at 61.2 and a major hurricane with barometric pressures wy down in the 900’s and windspeeds at 120.

    2004 Sep 07 15:00 60.20 11.80 115 963
    2004 Sep 07 18:00 61.20 11.90 120 957
    2004 Sep 07 21:00 62.00 12.00 120 956

    A bit further north and we would have been nailed.

    This is what happened to Grenada and St. Vincent.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+ivan+grenada+2004+pictures&tbm=isch&source=hp&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiSi7u20eTkAhWj1lkKHfb6ApUQsAR6BAgDEAE&biw=1366&bih=655

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+ivan+st.+vincent&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwir_bTc0eTkAhVRrlkKHaSDCZMQsAR6BAgDEAE&biw=1366&bih=655

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  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    Thanks John and Harry. I went to bed fairly early and got up late. Didn’t hear the rain or wind. Having a lazy Sunday morning, so i haven’t even gone outside yet.

    Liked by 1 person

  • From Barbados Weather Watchers Facebook page

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  • ” Working with the government of Dominica, the Preconco Group embarked on supplying the country with precast concrete homes built on stilts to alleviate the issues associated with flooding. The homes are completely concrete, including their roofs.

    Maloney afforded that the homes are energy efficient and have special materials inlayed into the concrete for cooling which makes them strong, cool, energy efficient, and sustainable.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/241862/-dominica-strong

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  • @Hants

    Let us hope the homes can withstand the elements when that times cones. Do we know what stress testing Maloney did to make his bold guarantee?

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  • @ David September 22, 2019 8:49 PM

    Can we conclude that this Bajan-based construction magnate has dropped his Bajan Hyatt project like a hot potato to seek a bigger profit in a rather vulnerable foreign housing market?

    Maybe he has smelled the rat that the collapse of Thomas Cook would result insufficient occupancy for his imaginary hotel on Bay Street.

    What implications does the collapse of the Thomas Cook packaged holiday have for tourism numbers out of the UK given the ongoing uncertainties created by Brexit?

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  • Maloney is a very busy man. Dominica is a land of opportunity.

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  • On any weather chart, there are always Highs and Lows.If there is a break in the Highs they would be replaced by troughs or lows..Only the southern portion of a high stops the northern movement.
    The eastern end stops the system from going north…the western end ( the break ) would pull the system WNW to N,while the northern end would push the system towards the east since winds blow CLOCKWISE around a HIGH and ANTICLOCKWISE around a LOW.
    Ivan was drifting towards Barbados,but a High Pressure system to the north west of Bdos quickly build to the east and it came under the influence of the eastern portion of that High and was pushed southwestwards away from the Island towards Grenada.
    A similar occurrence .occurred with Janet who was moving WNW away from the Island when a HIGH build easterwards and the eastern end pushed it southwestwards towards the Island.
    One should not use the Coriolis effect in isolation since in the Southern Hemisphere it is the opposite.

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  • The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
    throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
    will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
    environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
    hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
    The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
    advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
    72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
    120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

    We can breathe easy for now.

    This system is predicted to go north from early following its natural course away from the equator … and us.

    https://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-13A/ctrack.html

    Doesn’t look like we will get the deficit in rain made up for September but who knows.

    We had a good shower this morning, since midnight 31 parts so we can be thankful for that.

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  • Barbados got a heavy downpour after 7am.

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  • That system is predicted to go north BECAUSE of a break in the HIGH PRESSURE system near 40 degrees west and NOT from its” natural course away from the equator” whatever that is.
    If that was the case,why wait until it reaches near 40 degrees west? the Coriolis force is the force that deflects systems to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southen Hemisphere.
    A local Meteologist on TV in the case of Hurricane Joan INCORRECTLY said that she would have drifted NORTH after it had passed the Island BECAUSE of the CORIOLIS FORCE which is the force that causes winds to blow anticlockwise around a HIGH and clockwise around a Low in the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE( opposite in the Southern Hemisphere )….check her coordinates…there was a WIDE HIGH PRESSURE system over the Caribbean sea,and Joan was on its southern side and it went straight over to the Pacific….it didn’t travel its ” natural course away from the Equator ”
    Another Hurricane, Lennie was on the northern side of a High Pressure system when it formed near Jamaica and because of the easterlies on that side it drifted eastwards towards Puerto Rico and the Northern Leewards….that too didn’t follow its’ natural course away from the Equator’.
    Think of a rectangle with winds going clockwise around it…that is a HIGH…..think of a circle with winds blowing anticlockwise…that is a LOW..
    To picture a Hurricane,think of a circle with a point…that is the centre of the system..all around is still the system.Some people are of the opinion that because the centre did not pass over the Island that it MISSED us..it only means that the Island didn’t get a direct hit.

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  • Here I got 32 parts since midnight up to now.

    Barbados Weather site reports the following.

    Rainfall Past 12Hrs (mm) : 4.8 at 6 am
    Rainfall Month of September : 64.3
    Rainfall Current Year (mm) : 513.3
    Rainfall Previous Month (mm) : 101.8
    Rainfall Previous Year (mm) : 1146.4

    Last year there was 1146.4 mm or just over 45 inches wherever the rain guage for this site is setup.

    That is low, but not lowest!

    So far after almost nine months, that site has had 513.3 mm, that is about 20 inches and 20 parts.

    There are three months left in this year.

    Clearly unless we get floods every month, Barbados will be short by a lot!!

    Next year whatever problems the BWA has experienced will seem trifling if we don’t get rain, and lots of it … and in the right places to recharge the aquifers!!

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  • September is usually a wet month yet from the figures above, the rainfall at the Barbados Weather site is just past half what fell in August and September is nearly over!!

    It may not be the driest September on record, I have seen worse in the figures but all those dry Septembers in the past occurred at a time when demand for water was low and we had an excess of supply over the demand!!

    Something’s got to give!!

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  • Here at me I got the following rainfall

    Jan to Dec 2017 ~ 56″

    Jan to Dec 2018 ~ 48″

    So far in 2019 I am in the low 20’s and wondering where the rain went and where the year will close out!!

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  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    Not good

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  • from just casual observation I have been thinking that the seasons are unpredictable with respect to timelines. What was the rainfall in the later months of last year and the year before?

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  • There are cycles

    The average (for the whole island) from 1847 to 1984 for the first 8 months of the year is 27.39″.

    2017 – 26.33″
    2018 – 22.2″
    2019 – 17.33″

    I found 2017 at me to be slightly below average but then for 2018 and 2019 it has definitely been drier.

    The average (for the whole island) from 1847 to 1984 for the last 4 months of the year is 32.3″

    2016 – 33.62″
    2017 – 31.35″
    2018 – 24.04″

    It has been slightly above average in 2016 but then for 2017 and 2018 it has been dryer.

    The average over the whole island over the period 1847 to 1984 fluctuates between 40″ and 60″.

    … feast and famine!!

    So I reckon what I see here is pretty predictable.

    We are just in a dry year.

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  • The average over the whole island over the period 1847 to 1984 fluctuates between 40″ and 60″.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    Imprecise!!

    The rainfall in an individual year between 1847 and 1984 fluctuates between 40″ and 60″.

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  • La Nina and el Nino I think!!!

    2014 and 2015 were really dry but 2016 dry season was quite wet!!

    So I decided to start keeping records to see if the theories about La Nina and el Nino were true.

    La Nina begun when the dry spell broke in 2016 so I reckon it has passed and we are into el Nino if the theory is true.

    So with the data I have I will be checking to see when the next la Nina is due because that, if I the theory is right will break this dry spell.

    However, it would not surprise me if it is wrong but it has been fun keeping track and the equipment available is cheap and good!!

    I can leave it collecting data and get it as I please.

    I might even consider upgrading too!!

    Like

  • @ John September 23, 2019 2:16 PM

    Sir John, why don’t you tell us what’s so special about today? What is happening in heaven?

    Three more months before the next celestial event and a few days after to celebrate the arrival of your boy child.

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  • Thank you for your response. I hope the rain continues as it has been for most of today.

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  • Miller
    September 23, 2019 2:42 PM

    @ John September 23, 2019 2:16 PM
    Sir John, why don’t you tell us what’s so special about today? What is happening in heaven?
    Three more months before the next celestial event and a few days after to celebrate the arrival of your boy child.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Every day is special, it is a gift from God.

    If you took the time to read you would really be hoping for a girl, even though she can be the cause of extreme troubles!!

    Like

  • @ John September 23, 2019 3:49 PM
    “Every day is special, it is a gift from God.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Agree every day is a blessing. As long as the Sun shines for you it should be seen as a day in the valley of happiness and contentment.

    Hello John the Baptist, do you plan to turn baby Jesus into a tranny to meet the demands of the modern era of the political correctness and gender neutrality?

    Have a wet Autumnal equinox! You deserve it, my diviner friend!

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  • Looks like La Nina could be a ways off, half way down in 2020.

    https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/09/16/el-nino-la-nina-winter-forecast/

    Next year’s wet season could be good … however there may be extremes in hurricanes.

    Just got to wait and see.

    If NOAA is right and my interpretation is not wrong we will get out of this year with a low rainfall.

    Next year’s dry season could be an extremely tough one.

    .. depends on when the change happens.

    In 2015-2016 the change in rainfall was apparent.

    2014-2015 was brutal so it was difficult to miss it.

    I wasn’t tracking rainfall back then so I had no precise way of measuring what I saw.

    If I see that change happen again when it is predicted then I will know the theory is not incorrect.

    NOAA deals in probabilities unfortunately!!

    Makes no sense sticking your neck out predicting the weather!!

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  • @JOHN…..once again you are googling Meteorological Information and voicing your opinion.El Nino and La Nina are WESTERN ATLANTIC and PACIFIC (mostly EASTERN PACIFIC ) phenomena.
    When one talks about those two they DO NOT REFER to events in the CARIBBEAN. When the EL NINO is present IN THE PACIFIC/WESTERN ATLANTIC,,extreme weather conditions occur there with miild to moderate conditions occurring in the Caribbean…La NINA like conditions.
    When the La NINA is active in the above areas the opposite is occurring in the Atlantic/Caribbean area……EL NINO like conditions

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  • @ John September 23, 2019 4:32 PM

    Why are you so interested in all this ‘natural’ phenomena?

    Can’t you see that life is made up of paradoxes based on the Cosmic principle of Opposites in motion?

    Why seek to understand Mother Nature at work in her own yin yang way when you can simply pray to Yahweh for rain or shine?

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  • When the La NINA is active in the above areas the opposite is occurring in the Atlantic/Caribbean area……EL NINO like conditions

    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    I don’t have a problem interpreting the El Nino/La Nina theory incorrectly trying to explain the observable.

    Interpretation aside, I have said is three things:

    If we don’t get lots of rain between now and the end of December next year’s dry season will produce far more severe water shortages in Barbados!! – Agree or disagree???

    AND

    If we get rain during the dry season in the New Year, as we have at times in the past, those water shortages will be alleviated!! – Agree or disagree???

    Thirdly

    If there is a La Nina event end of this year or next year we will get both the possibility of rain but also the possibility of extreme hurricanes!! —– Agree or disagree??

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  • Miller
    September 24, 2019 7:36 AM

    @ John September 23, 2019 4:32 PM
    Why are you so interested in all this ‘natural’ phenomena?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I enjoy driving you bananas!!

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  • @ John September 24, 2019 8:13 AM

    How come the miller has never been ‘sectioned’ unlike you?

    Any person who is prepared to argue that ‘Christianity’ was against slavery has certainly either not read the Judeo-Chrisitian book of mythology or stark raving mad out of their mind.

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    @harryturnoverSeptember 24, 2019 7:05 AM “@JOHN…..once again you are googling Meteorological Information and voicing your opinion.El Nino and La Nina are WESTERN ATLANTIC and PACIFIC (mostly EASTERN PACIFIC ) phenomena.”

    The Caribbean in in the Western Atlantic, right?

    Like

  • @ John September 24, 2019 8:55 AM

    We are speaking of ‘chattel slavery’; not mental or spiritual slavery both of which black people have undergone and in most cases still undergoing.

    And this blanket of human exploitation covers slavery under your pet enslavers in the East the Muslims and the money-grabbing capitalist Judeo-Christians in the West, starting with the Portuguese.

    So whom should we listen to?

    Bob Marley with his “Redemption Song”?
    “We are going to emancipate ourselves from mental slavery because whilst others might free the body, none but ourselves can free the mind. Mind is your only ruler, sovereign. The man who is not able to develop and use his mind is bound to be the slave of the other man who uses his mind..”

    Or should we follow the dictats enunciated in your book of Jewish mythology?
    “Your male and female slaves are to come from the nations around you; from them you may buy slaves.
    You may also buy some of the temporary residents living among you and members of their clans born in your country, and they will become your property.
    You can bequeath them to your children as inherited property and can make them slaves for life, but you must not rule over your fellow Israelites ruthlessly.”

    How about the following applicable to Quaker false Christians like you?
    “Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ
    Obey them not only to win their favor when their eye is on you, but as slaves of Christ, doing the will of God from your heart.
    Serve wholeheartedly, as if you were serving the Lord, not people,8 because you know that the Lord will reward each one for whatever good they do, whether they are slave or free.”

    Like

  • Miller
    September 24, 2019 9:30 AM

    @ John September 24, 2019 8:55 AM
    We are speaking of ‘chattel slavery’; not mental or spiritual slavery both of which black people have undergone and in most cases still undergoing.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The Bible was written long before the Trans Saharan Slave Trade and its offshoot, the Trans Atlantic Slave Trade!!

    I am no Bible scholar but the impression I get is that prophesy is reserved for more important things.

    Like

  • SS

    Spot on!!

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  • @ John September 24, 2019 8:55 AM
    “I am no Bible scholar but the impression I get is that prophesy is reserved for more important things.”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So what can be more important than the freedom of people?

    The killing of people for homosexual acts or masturbating like Onan who spilled his seed on the ground instead of shooting it into a hairy hole?

    Didn’t your Yahweh deliver the (mythical) children of Israel from bondage in Egypt?

    Without the deliverance there would have been no Five Books of Moses to ‘guide’ people like you into killing ‘foreigners’.

    You need to practise what you preach from your Quaker bully pulpit.

    Like

  • Can we take this circular discussion outside please.

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  • Agree,

    … and just when it was getting to be fun!!

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  • @SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife …….what is your point?.. why are you asking a question and ANSWERING it too? are you AFRAID? I will REPEAT…when one speaks about the El Nino and the La Nina they are referring to events in the WESTERN ATLANTIC/PACIFIC AREAS.
    Maybe you are thinking that because the Caribbean is experiencing these conditions that we have to be in the Western Atlantic and that the El Nino is affecting us.
    …but to answer your question…Barbados is the most EASTERLY of the Islands in the PACIFIC just southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
    …and because someone or something displays traits similar to someone else ,that does not make that person someone else…are you a SIR?…are you a PRESIDENT FOR LIFE?

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  • @John….to answer your first question..NOBODY KNOWS….we might have a WETTER than usual WET SEASON.As for your second question… NOBODY KNOWS. since we may have a DRIER than usual WET SEASON
    .I agree with your third question.since it ENFORCES my point that if the LA NINA is active in the Western Atlantic/PACIFIC areas ,the OPPOSITE is happening in our neck of the woods we might get increase in rainfall and the possibility of more intense hurricanes in the ATLANTIC.
    In short….when the La Nina is active in the WESTERN ATLANTIC/PACIFIC areas…..there is EXTREME weather conditions in the ATLANTIC …when the El Nino is active,there is mild to moderate conditions in the Atlantic

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  • Pity successive Governments got us in this predicament with unbridled construction!!

    … and for what, a few $$ in bribes!!

    Construction is a dead end industry in Barbados!!

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    @harryturnoverSeptember 25, 2019 11:39 AM “Barbados is the most EASTERLY of the Islands in the PACIFIC just southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.”

    My maps (both Mercator and Peters) my globes and my extensive life long travel all tell me that Barbados is NOT the most EASTERLY of the Islands in the PACIFIC just southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

    Barbados is in the Western Atlantic.

    Teaching the grandchildren geography myself. I have to; just in case they run into somebody who pontificates that “Barbados is the most EASTERLY of the Islands in the PACIFIC just southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.”

    Or the lovely gentleman on Brass Tacks who almost insists that the world is flat, just because somebody on the internet more foolish than he said so.

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  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    almost daily

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  • This is an interesting site.

    https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

    The ONI (Ocean Nino Index) is perhaps a way of guesstimating when we will see the next Little Girl.

    Go to the bottom line.

    If I understand the numbers right we want to see this line start to go negative and turn blue.

    The single number, 0.3 on this line is the ONI index averaged for the previous three month period June July August, 2019 …. JJA!!

    The next average will be worked out at the end of September, 4 days away, July August September… JAS.

    Check back then and see what happens.

    We would like to see it continue to decrease (less than 0.5) and if possible go negative.

    It will turn blue if it reaches -0.5.

    Don’t let all the numbers confuse you.

    Go to the bottom line, everything above it is in the past!!

    If you are interested in how the numbers are derived, read the top paragraph.

    “The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.”

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  • @SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife…can’t you see that my response was an answer to your STUPID question.Most people except you know that BARBADOS is the MOST EASTERLY of the Caribbean Islands in the EASTERN CARIBBEAN….seems that you are more IGNORANT than I thought to think that Barbados the MOST EASTERLY ISLAND is in the WESTERN Caribbean.
    If Barbados is in the WESTERN ATLANTIC,which Islands are in the EASTERN ATLANTIC may I ask.
    Maybe you are one of those who believe that Jamaica is the most NORTHERLY of the CARIBBEAN ISLANDS in the EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
    Your maps should also tell you that the ISLANDS near 60 degrees west are in the EASTERN ATLANTIC…looks as though you are looking at those maps UPSIDE DOWN….lord have mercy ..looks as though I caught more than a whale when I sent out that sprat…what the bird?

    Like

  • Get PSC Result 2019

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