BB Weather Watch – A Case for Preparation

The blogmaster senses from the evidence of recent past and instinct, the weather pattern is changing for the worse as it relates to Barbados. We can debate if God is a Bajan or whether the weather avoids this rock because of natural elements that conspire to  influence the path systems on the approach to the archipelago will track. Whatever the reason we need to do as much planning as it practical to mitigate what is possible.

The most recent satellite image from a credible source is posted for our information. The blogmaster will pinned this post at the top of blog if required.

weather watch.png

153 comments

  • @about 8AM this morning.

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  • @ David BU

    I believe that the Met Office is watching these developing weather systems to the East. By now a pattern should have developed on the likely courses of these systems and the contributing weather elements that will affect their current trajectories and intensities.

    Like

  • @Vincent

    It is not an exact science, the forecasting business that is. They will use different models to attempt to predict, however, nature does not always cooperate.

    Liked by 1 person

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    And the heat. Whew!!! Sweating while sitting quietly at 7 in the morning is really unfair.

    Lolll!!!

    Probably entirely tron’s fault.

    Like

  • @ Simple Simon

    I agree that is Tron’s fault. He is the best example of a Devil’s Advocate I ever met. He is giving us a foretaste of Hell.

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  • Another sin we can cast at the feet of Tron’s greedy businessmen – CLIMATE CHANGE!

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  • Gheeez, everybody picking on poor Tron. Seems strange Tron has moved above all other political identities for criticism, or is it Friday the 13th hangover from yesterday.

    If GOD’s a Bajan he sure as HELL knows how to pick his politicians, arrogant, corrupt, self serving etc etc.

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    Don’t drink. Can’t afford to get drunk, when there are tron’s in this world. They might take advantage. So sober ALL of the time.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Just turn on your AC or move to a reasonable area where the distance between the houses is at least half a mile.

    I am expressly committed to climate change – because DLP is responsible for it. Between 2008 and 2018, they did not take any preventive measures to protect our coasts. This is now taking its toll.

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  • Lord help me some can even blame political parties for bad weather. Lol

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David.

    On a serious note where are we on the foreign debt restructuring and what’s the real story about Beaches in St Peter. You is a man that can turn over rocks and find facts so as we say ” wha going on dey?”

    Liked by 1 person

  • Also what happening at Sam Lord’s?

    Liked by 1 person

  • @John A

    Waiting but cannot find Hall.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David.

    Can’t understanding, hearing about everything and can’t hear a word about nothing important. I mean I hearing bout Rihanna ball and the boss lady being there and all sorts of social activity. Can’t hear no financial info on the topics I mentioned at all at all.

    I say i would ask you cause since the hard times hit I can’t buy a nation every day, so I might of miss it as a result of austerity!

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  • The unofficial word is that there will settle soon, on what we will have to see. You would have heard a leading member of the CTUSAB inquired during the week. Mum is the word.

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  • I shall dub this disease “Trumpenza”. Trump getting more ludicrous. John getting more ludicrous. Tron getting more ludicrous. Did Mia bring that back to Barbados when she met the Orange Peril? Is she just a carrier or does she just have a stronger immune system. Will she be able to fight off the disease?

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  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    The boss lady said “gimme a vote and watch muh”

    We still watching.

    And waiting.

    And waiting

    And waiting.

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  • John A

    Smoke and mirrors, PR stunts, waffle. I would have thought that things in Barbados were such that they needed the undivided attention of the president.
    Remember, after Dorian we heard a lot about climate change. Let us wait and see how long it will take to translate sound bites in to policy. Don’t forget the squatters; and we still have not been told how White Oaks came to the attention of the government.
    Did they approach the government before or after the general election with the default proposal? Has anyone in this government, or its advisers, ever worked with White Oaks previous to the general election? Has anyone associated with this government been paid an introductory fee for the White Oaks deal, or is still being paid??
    Lots of questions, but no answers.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Two day tropical outlook.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Humberto, centered just east-northeast of the northwestern
    Bahamas.

    1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located about 750 miles
    southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
    system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
    depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
    westward across the tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

    2. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface
    trough. Only slow development of this system is likely during
    the next couple of days while it moves westward over the western
    Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move inland along
    the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and
    development is not expected after that time.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

    Forecaster Brown

    Liked by 1 person

  • That’s the good new style of government. Transparency, where transparency is necessary. Reports of success instead of daydreams and mere announcements.

    First of all, the government announces that it is getting down to work. After the work is done, there will be a press conference. Nothing is announced that could not be implemented. On the contrary, the ministers are committed to transparency and honesty. Quote from NATIONNEWS on the national stadium: “The reality is the country is in a recession and there is no magic wand we can wave to get out of it, so we have to creep and once everyone understands this, we will get there with a lot less frustration.”

    The behaviour of the old government was very different: First they promised us paradise. Things like “Scandinavian welfare state in the Caribbean”, “economic crisis is over”, “most developed black country” or “Cahill is coming”. Then there was silence. Years later some documents appeared on BU which proved that the government had sold out the country.

    In any case, I am very much looking forward to the debt cut. The new government will once again prove its ability to act and expose the lies of the sneaky opposition in the Senate, in the administration and in the printed and social media.

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  • On another one conspiracy theorist have been saying that globalist geo-engineers are responsible for these cat 5 hurricanes
    My old problem with such theories lends to the fact that in order for such to be probable a link between pressure and steering currents would have to be ajoined which in all probabilty scientist cannot do in a precise manner or effectively

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  • @ Hal.

    Thing is four months ago we were promised an update on the debt restructuring and yet not a squeak. Wait i lie Persaud said ” dont worry we ain’t rushing to pay them as we ain t going borrow from them in no hurry.”

    I would love to know the impact that statement had on the process and how far off are we in settling this issue. If nothing is done private local entities trying to borrow on the international market going smell hell.

    On the Sam Lord’s and Beaches issue seeing that these are 2 pillars of our economic recovery, I expect to be told what’s happening there too.

    All the talk about transparency and interaction with the public like em get suck up in Dorian!

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  • Mind ‘the gap’
    Article by
    Barbados Today
    Published on
    September 14, 2019

    A direct hit from a natural disaster similar to Hurricane Dorian which devastated the Bahamian islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, would have deadly implications for some low-income Barbadian communities, whose residents should be moved out well before impact.

    And while Executive Director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) Ronald Jackson has backed recent calls for mandatory building codes, he fears such a process could take over a decade to fully implement.

    In the meantime, he told Barbados TODAY some communities would need to be fully evacuated if a major hurricane threatened the island.

    “The data shows that these events impact those who are deemed to be poor and have very poor infrastructure and you do have pockets of that in this country. So one of the first things you have to look at is how many of these pockets we have, how many people are there and what is going to be the demand on our services because these individuals are likely to be affected and plan for that,” Jackson said after a receiving a donation from the Ocean Hotels for Bahamian citizens affected by Hurricane Dorian.

    “You can save those lives and then we can deal with the infrastructural recovery thereafter, because you very well might lose homes in those particular pockets, but there is no reason why you should lose people. Once we know you are in an inferior housing structure, it is easier for us to evacuate you so you can ride out the storm for a day and go back in, rather than lose your life there. That is what I see in Barbados. Those pockets are potentially your first call,” Jackson suggested.

    The CDEMA executive admitted he was a “hard marker” when assessing disaster-related issues and stressed regional Governments still had a lot to do in the interest of their citizens’ protection.

    “What we have to do is ensure every building is built to code and that we look at the design of the roofing and ensure we are putting in the type of roof design with shorter eves and the type of pitch that will allow the wind forces to go over and reduce pressure on the roofing and there are also some tried and true practices that we have gone away from,” he indicated.

    Jackson however warned that a country’s true level of readiness was not just dependent on the State.

    He pointed to the Bahamian Government, which, according to him had taken all reasonable steps to protect its citizens.

    “We have to become a lot more psychologically ready for the fact that whilst we have been fortunate not to be impacted by anything of any magnitude, we live in a part of the world where these types of things are commonplace and there are changing signatures of tropical storms and extreme weather events.

    “As a people we have to recognise that part of what grants us the beauty that we use for recreation and our economic benefit is also part of what exposes us to the vagaries of natural hazards and events and plan for that,” Jackson said.
    kareemsmith@barbadostoday.bb

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  • Vincent Codrington

    The biggest bang for the buck would be to have adequate shelter for those resident in the at risk areas. Shelters built to category 4 hurricane resistant strength.

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  • Agree Vincent, this is what risk mitigation addresses.

    Liked by 1 person

  • You noticed in the aerial videos of the damage that among many of the flattened buildings they were some that were still standing and only had minor damage. If I was involved in the rebuilding I would have to ask what made them stand through it when others didn’t?

    One photo showed what looked like an old church standing firm and surrounded by nothing but flattened houses. It would seem the older houses feared better than some of the newer ones, why?

    That is what needs to be reviewed, what are the common denominators of the houses left standing ?

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  • @ John A September 14, 2019 2:06 PM

    Let’s be serious and impartial: Do you really believe that two lumpy hotels are boosting the economy? We only get underpaid slave jobs there. The income from the hotel contracts all runs offshore, i.e. no inflow of foreign currency.

    We can dream of so many hotel projects. But the slow death of the middle class is inevitable. We have too many doctors, lawyers and other useless professions.

    The middle class only emerged in Barbados because OSA inflated the bureaucracy in an almost perverse way from 1995 onward. Now is the time to apply the needle and let the air out of the balloon.

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  • @ Tron

    I only quoting the words of our leaders who say that ” the tourism sector will form the pillars of our recovery.”

    Never said I agree with them though. However based on THEIR proclamations one would expect some statement on the stalled projects at Sam Lord’s and Beaches don’t you think?

    Liked by 1 person

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ John A at 2 :27 PM

    I share your scientific approach to the issue. We can learn a lot from the Dorian catastrophe in Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands in the Bahamas . Preparation. Preparation. Preparation.

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  • Those who witnessed the destruction in Abaco and Grand Bahama would have been influenced by it. It obviously influenced the PM’s press briefing on her return.

    We continue to policitize every issue be it crime, education disaster preparedness the lot.

    Who said we are an educated people? Education is meant to inform best decisions whether to enhance personal or national being.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A September 14, 2019 2:35 PM

    Thank you for pointing that out. Excuse me, please!

    Even if we are paving the entire west and south coast with even more hotels, this doesn’t change the basic problem. Hotels only create jobs in the low-wage sector.

    Offshore banking is dead and no replacement in sight. The state cannot create more sleeping places for civil servants. It won’t take twenty years and the middle class is finally finished.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Vincent.

    I think every country in the hurricane belt needs to send a group to Abaco and let them study in real world terms, what the difference was between structural failure and survival. There is no better living example based on fact as opposed to theory, of what is the difference between buildings that survived and those that failed under the presence of the slowest moving cat 5 on record. No amount of simulation can replace the wealth of knowledge that lays entangled in those islands!

    Regardless of what engineers believe, in those islands lies the largest collection of facts that we in this region should harvest prior to their rebuilding. I recall seeing some beach front condos there that stood firm when all around them was destruction. Why?

    There has to be lessons there for all of us, if we just go in there and search for the common denominators those buildings that are standing shared.

    Don’t let that knowledge be lost in the clean up! Of course the learned regional engineers will sit in their airconditioned offices instead and pontificate from their pulpets on what ” should be done based on theory” instead of actually going there and trying to learn from reality.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Vincent.

    I would now go further and say the best country to prepare a building code for the region would be the BAahamas post Dorion.

    Their code I would implement as it’s based on reality as opposed to “aircondituoned office theory”.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Those of you living in Barbados should check your own homes and prepare them for a possible Tropical storm or Hurricane this year.

    Stocking cans of corned beef, tuna, sardines and some biscuits etc. should be done now,

    Why wait to join the long lines at the supermarkets when a storm is approaching ?

    Hopefully Barbados will get lucky this year.

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  • @Hants

    This blog is dedicated to you for your relentless focus on disaster preparedness particularly hurricane.

    #thankyou

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  • Vincent Codrington

    @ Hants at 3:39 PM

    Hants do you believe the hurricane supplies that Barbadians stocked up last week have been consumed? The Hurricane Season ends at Oct 31st.

    I think the GoB needs to identify more shelters and bring them up to the required standards.Those published seem inadequate to me.

    A traffic plan need to be prepared and published for those who have to evacuate to higher ground. There were too many grid locks prior to shut down last week. Time is usually of essence.

    I ,like David, appreciate your dedication in keeping us, at home, informed and up to date.

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ John A

    I agree with your submission above. There should be an iterative process between theory and data. Scientific progress cannot be made if there are no theories or models. Theories need to be tested with real events / data. It would be interesting to find out how many buildings using the recently discussed building code survived……the buildings with 10 ft square shear walls on each elevation.

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  • @ Vincent.

    Down there lies a wealth of data that all must tap into.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Since the passing of Hurricane Dorian and the seemingly unstoppable destruction unleashed on the islands in the Bahamas; I am of the view that our preparation efforts must now include the thereafter.
    Therefore I believe that in addition to a helmet and waterproof raincoat it should be mandatory for all residents to have a waterproof backpack which should include basic essentials, medicines, torchlight and water to provide some sustenance to survivors until relief efforts reach them or normalcy begins to return

    Liked by 1 person

  • https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Humberto, centered just northeast of the northwestern
    Bahamas.

    1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
    tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
    only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or
    two. Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
    development through the middle of next week and a tropical
    depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
    west-northwestward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

    2. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern and central
    Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak
    surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible
    during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the
    western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move inland
    along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and
    further development is not expected after that time.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

    Forecaster Zelinsky

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  • I put together a single page a while back that displays several Tropical Atlantic related satellite images (GEOCOLOR, IR, Water Vapor, Visible), and a surface analysis image for the same region.

    The code pulls the latest images from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, home to the NHC). A ‘thumbnail’ sized image is shown for each view, and just below it, direct links to two larger, high-rez images.

    https://caribbeanweather.org/satellite-images/tropical-atlantic/

    Hope you folks find it useful.

    Liked by 1 person

  • fortyacresandamule

    Living on a small low lying island, that is barely less than10ft above sea level in a hurricane zone, is bad enough in itself. Getting struck by a slow moving CAT 5 hurricane with those geographic constrains is a recipe for total destruction. You not only have to worry about the 200mph wind but the more dangerous tsunami-like sea surges.

    To ride out such hazard, a slab roof is a better option. Built far inland with two levels of floor at least 24ft high.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Today’s headline in the Sun HEAT WAVE.

    Liked by 1 person

  • https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Humberto, located more than 100 miles north of the
    northwestern Bahamas.

    1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
    tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only
    slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two.
    However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
    conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week,
    and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
    while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

    2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
    central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
    low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
    system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
    westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
    move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
    Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart

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  • From now till early October we have to be watchful for systems forming to the east of us.

    The latitudes which cause us the most problems are 8-11 degrees north.

    If the formation takes place above that band of latitudes and there is no high pressure in the Atlantic to force the system into that band as it travels north west we will be ok.

    But, we need the rain!!

    Liked by 1 person

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    @TronSeptember 14, 2019 1:08 PM “Just turn on your AC or move to a reasonable area where the distance between the houses is at least half a mile.”

    There is not enough room for all the people in the world to live half a mile apart.

    I don’t wish to contribute to global warming and the use of fossil fuels by using an air conditioner

    And besides I like my neighbours, and they like me.

    I came up with a much BETTER, much WISER solution.

    I took a beach chair outside and lay down on it under some of the trees I planted decades ago. A few glasses of cold water and a book I was good. Going to do the same now.

    My electricity bill hovers around $105. BDS and it is my aim to keep it there.

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  • The simple life sure sounds good!

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  • Thunderstorms are being forecast for tomorrow.

    Full moon was yesterday September 14th, at 12:33 AM.

    We are half way through the month with only a small fraction of the average rainfall we should expect.

    My instincts suggest we should get rain this week and if so there should be not be a heatwave.

    Today, yesterday and last week, now that was a heatwave.

    But, I am not a meteorologist, just going by the numbers, the moon and instincts.

    Plus, I like to think positive.

    By September 29 last year all the ponds in the fields nearby that catch water were full, one in particular remaining with water till February this year.

    This and the rainfall data will be my guage of what sort of troubles the BWA will find itself in in the months to come.

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  • ….. should be not be a heatwave

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    should not be a heatwave!!

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  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    Showers off and n this evening, a heavy downpour now. No lightning, no thunder.

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  • Saw some lightning before 7:00 pm.

    Satellite seems to show weather around us.

    Fourteen days left in September, somethings got to give.

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  • My electricity bill hovers around $105. BDS and it is my aim to keep it there.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Look at your security night lights if you have them and see what their wattage is.

    Simple fluorescent bulbs can do the job.

    15 watts or so is equivalent to 100 watts incandescent … or so the box says.

    Try to reduce the hours they are on.

    Check and keep checking your refrigerator to make sure it cycles and is not permanently running.

    It runs 24/7 and inefficiencies add up.

    If you have two, or a deep freeze as well, see if you can get by with a simple refrigerator.

    In the days of the exorbitant fuel charge my bill was in the high $200’s.

    It now around $75.00 BDS.

    My bill is estimated and the meter read periodically and sometimes I get credits.

    I also took seriously the advice my parents gave me when I was young.

    If you don’t need a light on, turn it off.

    Probably no sense even considering solar panels.

    If the oil price skyrockets then maybe but there will always be something to cut.

    If I do have to look at solar panels I will look at the minimum ,,,, fridge and security lights.

    I am lucky, the neighbor has bright LED security lights so the areas I like to keep lit at night are lit by those!!

    So mine are off!!

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  • I don’t feel we getting a heat wave.

    We had one last week.

    I feel most days for the balance of the month we will get showers.

    Would live a couple of inches even if we can’t get the balance to make up the average.

    Wind got a bit of a nip in it too.

    Even the lady I was at last night could feel the change in weather for the better.

    Let’s hope it continues.

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  • Would live = would love!!

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  • @ John September 16, 2019 9:36 AM
    “Even the lady I was at last night could feel the change in weather for the better.
    Let’s hope it continues.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Is that your fornicating “Quaker” way of saying that it was ‘weather for leather’ or- as in your limpidly limp case- sharing licks from your lips?

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  • Actually no … it was the spell checker that gets ahead of itself.

    Looks like the prediction of showers was right so far for today … no thunder as yet.

    Good showers have fallen and are falling where I live.

    … yup there is the thunder.

    Spot on!!

    Forget the heat wave for now!!

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  • Must be the moon!!

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  • Date: 16/09/19 Time: 13:54 UTC
    Air Temp: +27.8° R.H: 84 %
    Winds: 105° at 19 KT

    The 105 degrees relates to the wind direction, not its temperature!!

    This means it is coming out of the South East, off the sea!!

    Right now its a cool 27.8 degrees

    Like

  • Date: 16/09/19 Time: 14:06 UTC
    Air Temp: +27.6° R.H: 84 %
    Winds: 133° at 17 KT

    Six minutes later the wind direction has a more southerly component, 133 degrees.

    Again, this is not the temperature!!

    A few minutes ago the wind speed was 20 Knots.

    This would be considered a fresh breeze on the Beaufort scale.

    … just short of a strong breeze … hence the nip.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

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  • +27.8° … That’s in centigrade not Farenheit.

    For those who prefer Farenheit, (like me) multiply by 9/5 and add 32!!

    That’s 82.04° Farenheit …. nice and cool for now!!

    https://www.rapidtables.com/convert/temperature/celsius-to-fahrenheit.html

    Good rule of thumb, 30° Centigrade = 86° Farenheit

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  • Date: 16/09/19 Time: 14:21 UTC
    Air Temp: +26.7° R.H: 84 %
    Winds: 108° at 17 KT

    … and now, 15 minutes later the temperature has dropped to 26.7° C or 80.06° F

    It is the Fresh Breeze and the rain that is making this happen.

    Like

  • http://www.barbadosweather.org/

    …… if you want to follow how the temperature and windspeed progress through the day … and week!!

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  • Where has the forecast for a heat wave come from?

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  • David
    September 16, 2019 10:49 AM

    Where has the forecast for a heat wave come from?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++

    “Meteorologist David Best told the THE NATION that though it would be hot at this stage of the summer season anyway, Barbadians should brace for more stifling heat for “all of next week”.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/241791/heatwave-coming

    Weather is difficult to predict.

    The source doesn’t actually say “heat wave” …. it is the Nation headlines!!

    Today it is the animals .

    Last week and week before were brutal.

    The nation is 2 weeks late with its prediction, …. hopefully.

    At this time in September we should be getting rain which thankfully we are … for the moment.

    Hopefully the heat wave has come and gone.

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  • Date: 16/09/19 Time: 18:26 UTC
    Air Temp: +28.0° R.H: 84 %
    Winds: 108° at 13 KT

    Wind has dropped a bit for the moment and Temperature is a bit higher, but still so far, under 30° C or 86° F.

    Last week a friend saw 38°C on his car temperature guage.

    So we are about 10° C below last week.

    Maybe the meteorologist needs to be more careful with his choice of words when dealing with reporters looking for a story and seeking to make an impression.

    Last night at Chefette all I could hear was the ladies behind the counter talking about the heat wave coming.

    Perhaps tomorrow or the next day may be hot but for now, be thankful for the reprieve.

    With R.H above 80% if the wind drops we will find it humid.

    BTW, R.H. is an abbreviation for Relative Humidity, not what you might think!!

    So, SS, if you are out in the yard under the tree you may get wet.

    BTW, say hello to the General!!

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  • … reminds me of a couple of stories I heard a while back.

    Somebody told me a “fisherman” appeared on a Call in programme claiming to have passed an iceberg heading to Barbados and reckoned it would pass North Point at 4:00pm that day.

    There was a buzz so he called back and said he had seen some penguins on it.

    Then he went to North Point to see a crowd of Bajans on hand to witness the iceberg!!

    Reminds me also about what some person did to Father Hatch, persuaded him that he had camels in Belleplaine and that people were being cruel to them.

    So Father Hatch begged Bajans to desist from maltreating them.

    “Leave the man’s camels alone”

    Of course, both those stories were probably also themselves made up.

    But I enjoyed them nonetheless.

    Like

  • Hurricane Humberto.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
    * Bermuda

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hello BU family et al,

    So most, if not all of us, are familiar with the hurricane hunters that fly into the systems, do recon, et cetera, et cetera. Some (all?) of the HH aircraft utilize GAIA before/after heading into storms.

    Found this article on one particular mission into Hurricane Hugo (1989). The article recounts the harrowing experiences of one of the hurricane hunter team members as it left BGI in September of 1989. The team also included one Janice Griffith, a reporter (presumably from The Nation?).

    https://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/hugo1.asp

    Rgds,
    Amit.

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    @JohnSeptember 16, 2019 3:00 PM “So, SS, if you are out in the yard under the tree you may get wet.”

    Couldn’t garden.

    Couldn’t sit under my trees.

    So I did 5 hours of heavy housekeeping in the morning.

    And kept company with the grands in the afternoon.

    Glad for the rain, and glad for the relief from the heat.

    Like

  • You are most welcome!!

    Like

  • It looks on the satellite as though we could get some serious rain tonight.

    I think the “heat wave” we were having may be broken but we will see.

    Tomorrow should be cool, but who knows, certainly not me..

    Like

  • Once again people looking at satellite photos and PRELIMINARY graphical OUTLOOKS and forming their own opinions and forecasts.Look at the LATEST graphical outlook and see if it is the same.

    Like

  • All systems are WATCHED by the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE in MIAMI.The BARBADOS Met.Service nor ANY OTHER Met Service this part of the GLOBE have the resources and personnel to watch and IDENTIFY ANY weather system approaching.
    Bajans need to stop looking at social media and IGNORE forecasts made by PRESIDENTS,PRIME MINISTERS and’ ADMIRALS’ and log on to the OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE website and READ what they say when systems form until they die.

    Like

  • Agree

    Be wary of what you think are photographs but are really digitally processed images of signals from remote sensors.

    They are not always what they seem.

    We had 24 parts of rain last night whereas the image of the weather approaching us suggested we would wash away!!

    The next system we need to watch is this one.

    “A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little better organized this morning, and conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”

    Haven’t got a latitude as yet as it is still disorganised but it’s westward motion has a northward component which is good for us.

    It is far enough away (~ 1000 miles) that by the time it gets to our longitude it could be north of us but you got to watch and read and listen.

    High pressure in the Atlantic could drive it south to us.

    Latitude, longitude, windspeed and direction of travel first.

    Then look at the pretty pictures.

    … and listen to the advisories which will be coming out of Miami.

    No sign of any heatwave today!!

    Like

  • IIIFFFF it comes our way it will be the last week in September.

    IIIIIFFFF if intensifies into a storm or hurricane it will be an I or a J … or a K, probably I.

    Irma, Ivan

    Janet

    Katrina

    … but then again it could peter out.

    Like

  • Spaghetti models for tropical depression 10 suggest it will go north of us.

    One track has it going through the Dominica area but the rest has it veering north.

    Too early to say so watch.

    Meanwhile another Tropical wave expected to come off the African coast on Thursday!!!

    Keep watching!!

    Like

  • TD 10 is at Latitude 13.4 North and going northwest.

    Expected to become a hurricane in 3 days.

    On the expected track we should be cool but keep an eye!!

    https://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-10A/ctrack.html

    Key Messages:

    The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
    its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
    Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
    direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
    have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
    system.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

    Like

  • Source of info

    Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

    Like

  • Yes John,spot on.Wish more people would read the DISCUSSION part of the bulletins out of the NHC…would not understand three quarters of what is said,but,would realize that the experts don’t just look at satellite photos to make predictions.
    By the way, that satellite photo is an OLD photo when it was posted on September 14th.

    Like

  • Nice breeze this morning from the east south east.

    Not as strong as yesterday.

    Date: 18/09/19 Time: 12:27 UTC
    Air Temp: +30.7° R.H: 66 %
    Winds: 113° at 11 KT

    Temperature past 30°/86° so a bit hotter too.

    It’s a storm out there now, Jerry.

    With a storm and its low pressure coming to the area the low pressure in the Atlantic, depending on its location could cause the wind to come from the west.

    At the moment pressure in it is given as 1004 millibars, about 10 millibars below normal atmospheric pressure and it will drop.

    It will be interesting to watch as time progresses.

    Predictions are it will still become a hurricane but conditions will not favour strengthening as much as was predicted yesterday.

    Still, watch. … plus besides the tropical wave due off the African Coast on Thirsday, there is another between it and Jerry.

    They are coming thick and fast so keep an eye on these too!!

    Key Messages:

    Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
    its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
    too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
    islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
    plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
    72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

    Like

  • Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

    Like

  • Watch it carefully!!

    Here is the picture.

    A slight push south by the appearance of high pressure in the Atlantic is all it takes.

    Next day or so we will know for sure but in 12 hours we will have an indication.

    http://www.barbadosweather.org/GOES16/Jiren_displayer.php?Instrument=GOES16&Product=11um&Sector=ECG&Type=BW&Title=Infrared%2011.2um%20(Long%20wave%20IR%20Band%2014)

    Like

  • … digitally processed image

    Like

  • Date: 18/09/19 Time: 14:58 UTC
    Air Temp: +31.5° R.H: 66 %
    Winds: 108° at 13 KT

    Temperature rising but not out of the ordinary!!

    There is a storm east of us.

    As it gets closer we may or may not get the benefit of some rain!!

    Once it goes north as predicted we won’t get the wind.

    Like

  • ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Humberto, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda,
    and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of
    the Leeward Islands.

    1. A tropical wave located almost 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
    Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
    development of this system is possible while the system approaches
    the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
    eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

    2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
    the southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
    tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
    conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
    possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
    the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
    northwestward through the weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

    Forecaster Latto

    Like

  • A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
    this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
    conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
    early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    We got to watch this one!!

    5 day formation chance increasing, it was 40% last time I checked.

    So looks like we could be ok this week bar rain from Jerry.

    Like

  • Formation chance through 5 days now up to 70% so we could get another depression headed our way next week

    Like

  • BU bloggers living in Barbados get enough ” early warning ” to prepare for the next storm or hurricane.

    None of you should get caught in line ups for food or gas.

    Like

  • Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
    located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
    increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head
    quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will
    move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is
    possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by
    early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
    conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the
    eastern Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    Watch this one too, hopefully just rain

    Like

  • ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
    downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles
    north of the northern Leeward Islands.

    1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
      Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
      and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive
      for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
      or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
      west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
      Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
      development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
      the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
      is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
      necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
      over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
      those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
      disturbance.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

    1. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues
      to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to
      strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is
      not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the
      next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
      rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba
      through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and
      mudslides in areas of high terrain.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

    1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
      by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
      for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
      likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
      the eastern tropical Atlantic.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart

    Like

  • Some nice looking weather coming in from the East, according to the satellite images.

    Some forecasters are saying thunder showers are likely later today and tomorrow.

    I doubt we can catch up to where our normal September rainfall is but who knows.

    My guage will be the ponds around where I live.

    If they are full, we good but I doubt that very much.

    The rainfall numbers will also tell the story.

    Late next week we will also know if a depression or storm or hurricane is headed our way.

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife

    @JohnSeptember 21, 2019 1:33 PM “My guage will be the ponds around where I live.”

    You will report here once today’s or tomorrow’s rain is done?

    Like

  • Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
    area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
    thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition,
    recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
    Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
    tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
    development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
    days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
    while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
    across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The
    system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
    and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
    rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
    Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
    across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
    Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
    progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
    warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
    Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    On our doorstep!!

    Might get some rain.

    Gusty winds too.

    Right now up to 25 knots.

    Date: 22/09/19 Time: 04:00 UTC
    Air Temp: +27.0° R.H: 86 %
    Winds: 124° at 25 KT

    On the Beaufort Scale a strong breeze, stronger than Dorian when it passed us.

    Strong breeze 22-27 knots
    Large waves with foam crests and some spray.
    Large branches in motion. Whistling heard in overhead wires. Umbrella use becomes difficult. Empty plastic garbage cans tip over.

    Sea probably licking up.

    Not much rain up to midnight, 26 parts so far is nothing to sneeze at but for September, not great.

    Guess we got to wait a little longer in September.

    If this tropical wave between us and Tobago ends up in a strong storm or hurricane and it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from the south it could be serious for them.

    For the moment we don’t have to call an island wide shutdown, …. unless we really want to!!

    Like

  • SirSimpleSimonPresidentForLife
    September 21, 2019 2:35 PM

    @JohnSeptember 21, 2019 1:33 PM “My guage will be the ponds around where I live.”
    You will report here once today’s or tomorrow’s rain is done?

    +++++++++++++++++++

    Day before I asked around about ponds on the Christ Church Dome and a lady pointed to one and told me that in 40 years she had never seen it completely dry as it was for much of the year.

    If we don’t get rain soon real rough times ahead.

    Like

  • We have been experiencing gusty winds much stronger than those associated with Dorian. Not much rain.

    Like

  • Tropical Storm Karen!

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

    1. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low
    pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is
    becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical
    storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
    development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
    days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
    while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15
    mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
    The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto
    Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and strong
    gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands
    during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico
    and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across
    the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and
    tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for
    portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air
    Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this
    afternoon.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

    2. A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
    producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
    organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
    development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
    to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
    northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

    Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    Forecaster Blake

    Like

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