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The economy continues to be the focus of the Mia Mottley administration.  Although the government should be congratulated for taking decisions unlike its predecessor  – to be expected the public has been vocal in response of the austerity measures.

A listen to Governor Haynes reminds the blogmaster of the promise made by the DLP through former Governor DeLisle Worrel regarding projects in the pipeline. It does not matter the government in office, one thing is guaranteed, we struggle to implement.

-David, Blogmaster


Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados economic performance in the first three months of 2019 and takes questions from members of the media.

CBB Review of Barbados’ Economy (January – March 2019).pdf (519.63 KB)

 


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106 responses to “Review of Barbados Economy January-March 2019 : Government on Track to Meet IMF Targets”

  1. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    GP…boring DpD gone rogue after years of being boring…lol..at least that should make things exciting going forward.

  2. Robert Goren Avatar

    @Hants

    Why do you see it necessary to waste time posting excerpts from the Nation newspaper, when we get it here on daily basis from a vendor or online?

    Or do you do that because you want something to post?


  3. @ Wily Coyote May 4, 2019 6:24 PM

    That’s the way it is.

    The masses still believe that two hotels are saving their asses. We have already reached the peak of the tourism industry.

    I really wonder what the masses are learning at their schools. In Harrison they learn too much national pride, singing and the Bible and too little economics and mathematics.

  4. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    Somebody is getting muy frustrated….wuhloss!!!


  5. The mere ‘meeting of the IMF targets’ should not be considered as progress even though within the BERT model, or benchmarks as established, will be so seen by the supporters of this administration.

    The ‘recovery’ of the unsustainable gains made previously certainly will not lead to any real transformation as constantly promoted by government.

    By example, let us deal with one proposal of this government – providing micro loans to prospective entrepreneurs.

    This has been tried many times and before and has not been able to affect the general consolidation of wealth in Barbados. Meaning there are differences between money and sources of wealth which will never be overcomed by the distribution of ‘largesse’.

    We are saying that any injections of money into the hands of the 99 percenters in Barbados quickly finds its way into the hands of the controllers of wealth in and outside of the country.

    Meaning there is no effective community of the 99 percenters able to circulate income, up to 18 times, let’s say, at its base, before exiting. And at its apex, control policy at the highest levels. Of course, all social and economic activities between serve this wider community.

    It is therefore not surprising that some who previously saw this governor, and more so the one before, as feckless now take comfort from his mouthings, as a member of a new formation of elites within duopoly.


  6. @Pacha

    The economic model needs to be changed but to what? Our leadership seems to lack the courage and intelligence to lead the country in a new direction, new modalities.

  7. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    “We are saying that any injections of money into the hands of the 99 percenters in Barbados quickly finds its way into the hands of the controllers of wealth in and outside of the country.”

    That’s the plan, that is why it is given out with such bad mind and in such small portions by the riffraff in parliament, they know it is going straight to their BRIBERS…it has to be spent, therefore the majority cannot see any development and growth.


  8. @Pacha

    To complete the point. There will always be the argument about the merits of a system giving the opportunity for anyone with the capacity to earn to do with the trickledown benefits to those less entrepreneurial or gifted. What is the alternative if we want to stoke meritocracy?


  9. Most understand the physchological mind games attached to the Bert program
    Like giving a child a cookie for keeping the room clean
    A similarity by word of praise used by the IMF which persuades the govt to do more in driving their austetity measures
    One rarely hear mention out of the mouth of the sellers / officials/ of the IMF the social carnage which countries endure under IMF programs such questions when aaked of by the buyers and sellers of the programs are always met with pseudo intellectual babble and lack of empathy
    The lack of any social concerns which set itself apart and is obliviuos to what makes up a socio- economic heart of small island nations speaks to a level of disingenuous fancy work deliberately designed to hurt the poor and secure the weath for the rich

  10. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @John A May 4, 2019 8:03 PM
    “When the father of the Automobile Henry Ford…”
    +++++++++++++++++
    Henry Ford’s innovation had nothing to do with full employment, his innovation was to pay his workers more than double the wages that they were earning at other companies (122% more actually). It wasn’t just about the number of jobs, it was about their quality.

    This is why it it meaningless to point to the low unemployment rate in the USA under Trump without also considering the quality of the jobs that are being created… jobs where people hold multiple jobs and are still below the poverty line.


  11. @ Tron May 5, 2019 5:08 AM
    The masses still believe that two hotels are saving their asses. We have already reached the peak of the tourism industry.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Bajans have been warned not to put too many of its economic sustainability eggs in the one-trick pony tourism basket which is fast becoming a sunset industry.

    There is every indication that there is going to be a significant slowing down if not cutting back of arrivals out of the UK and other European markets as a result of economic contraction and changing demographics in the potential visitors to destinations like Barbados offering mainly sun, sea and sand.

    But more worryingly is the growing pressure from the fast growing climate change lobby comprised primarily of millennials concerned about the future environmental state of their planet.

    Many see Air Travel- especially to long-haul pleasure seeking destinations like Barbados- as a luxury which can be cut back to reduce carbon emissions.

  12. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    Under the BERT program the government has basically given up on taxing income in favour of taxing consumption (VAT) and assets (land tax).

    In order for this to work for the majority of the population they need to remove all the loopholes and zero rated items in VAT and compensate lower income people with tax credits. That way people like me pay a fair share of taxes while the burden does not fall as heavily on lower income people. We could probably then lower the VAT rate back to 15%.

    It is difficult to make consumption taxes like VAT progressive enough to suit rational social policy objectives, so asset taxes like land tax have to be much more progressive to compensate. I honestly do not see the point of capping the land tax at $60k. In the context of Barbados history and the current wide disparities in income and assets, if I own a property worth $10 million then I should not have a problem paying $75k in land tax.


  13. Mariposa May 5, 2019 6:43 AM

    Stop the presses breaking news
    Read where Barbados govt might be putting their share of Liat up for sale.

  14. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @David May 5, 2019 6:28 AM
    “… the trickledown benefits to those less entrepreneurial or gifted.”
    +++++++++++
    It works like this…
    trickledown
    trickledow
    trickledo
    trickled
    trickle
    trickl
    trick

    There is no such thing as trickledown benefits!


  15. @Peter

    Agree we have to protect the vulnerable. That said we have to construct a society that is disposed to reward industriousness and the entrepreneurial. We have an inbred mentality of mendicancy. Do not need to say to you that no man system is perfect.


  16. PLT

    You forgot to tell them that all the metrics for unemployment measurement have been historically manipulated for political reasons.

    Even the Fed, which purports to be ‘independent’, has been openly forced, by recent pressures from Trump, to reverse the raising of interest rates – the punch-bowl of free money must continue for the banksters!

    The relationships between employment/unemployment and the interest rate regime are well known. Other variables too.

  17. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    Yeah and road tax moved from 400 dollars A YEAR…..to 4,000 dollars A YEAR..in gas and diesel…president Mia SOAKED YA BACKSIDES…the bad news is…… THAT IS A LOT OF MONEY TO TIEF…the good news is…THE THIEVES HAVE NOWHERE TO STASH ALL THAT LOOT…not anymore..lol


  18. David

    This ‘trickle-down’ policy has long failed – with Reaganomics, Thatcherism.

    We are still living in a world where consolidation ia still galloping, apace

    So for anybody to rest their economic policy on such is like demanding that a dead man walk

    More bothersome to us, is that this continues to happen where a so-called middle class is already being destroyed and all public assets are privatized.


  19. What de hell does low unemployment has to do with the quality of jobs

    The quality of job should not be a reflection of what constitutes or be a measuring stick to the level of unemployment
    If that be the case small island unemployment would be the size of Mt. Rushmore
    Now the quality of jobs is within itself another issue which is debatable on a platform of what effects the job has in the increased of poverty
    Having said the above even those considered working for minimum wages in the USA. are assisted by govt programs which provides proper housing
    Most in these small island nations living off minimum wage can least afford such luxury

  20. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    “for anyone with the capacity to earn to do with the trickledown benefits to those less entrepreneurial or gifted. ”

    look past the blindspot andall the malicious narrative set up just for you, they are not” less entrepreneurial or less gifted”…they are marginalized, disenfranchised and ROBBED OF OPPORTUNITIES…maliciously and deliberately by the Judases in parliament….

    it should tell you something when these people despite all that has been done to them…CONTINUE TO SURVIVE FOR DECADES, generation after generation.

    They are FORCED TO SURVIVE BY THEIR WITS…so that the house negros can continue to collect their bribes and rob the treasury and pension fund simultaneously…that is the only time the judases know how to multitask.


  21. David 06:08

    There is nothing this ‘misleadership class’ can do to solve any of these problems. Not only in Barbados.


  22. Mr Goren, this guy Hants seems to beleive that we in Barbados waiting on him for news.Those two, Sarge and Hants, along with Hal Austin,William Skinner and a few others that do not live here beleive that as Dems they should pull down and bellyache every day on here to gain cheap political points.They cannot find nothing positive to say as far as this government is concerned as if they want the country to fail.Guess what we will rebound with or without you , that is my prediction.

  23. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @David May 5, 2019 7:09 AM
    “… we have to construct a society that is disposed to reward industriousness and the entrepreneurial.”
    +++++++++++++++
    We have to abandon the evil notion that naked selfish greed is the only reward for industriousness and entrepreneurial activity.


  24. @Miller

    “But more worryingly is the growing pressure from the fast growing climate change lobby comprised primarily of millennials concerned about the future environmental state of their planet.”

    I hate the climate disciples. They behave like followers of sects or – even worse – like the hysterical European population of the 16th and 17th centuries in the persecution of witches. In the past they believed in witches, today they believe in so-called man-made climate change.

    The students at “Fridays for Future” are particularly bad. Reminds me strongly of the children’s crusades in the Middle Ages. We should send them across the Mediterranean again. Let’s see if the Arabs need young white slaves …

  25. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    Somebody else sounds muy frustrated..lol..bellyaching and groaning about bloggers posting innocent news stories..wuhloss!!


  26. @Lorenzo

    You take your position as the self- appointed Gov’t and BLP defender on the blog too seriously, the days of the “yes man” are over. Here’s some advice, just scroll past anything I write and that will spare you some anger and upset.

  27. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    THE DAYS OF YARDFOWLS ARE OVER…ya dig???

    go find some real goddamn work to do..


  28. peterlawrencethompson May 5, 2019 6:49 AM

    This is why it it meaningless to point to the low unemployment rate in the USA under Trump without also considering the quality of the jobs that are being created… jobs where people hold multiple jobs and are still below the poverty line.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    That is why Obama did not boast about the economy. The reality on the ground is that even teachers in the USA need a second job to meet basic needs. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck or to use Bajan parlance – dey hand tuh mout.

    GDP, unemployment figures and the Stock Market are inadequate indicators of how well the economy is doing for the majority of its citizens..

    And figures on wage increases mean nothing unless compared with inflation. One could actually get a wage increase and still be worse off.

    The devil is in the details.

    Trump’s figures just mean that the wealthy in the USA are doing exceedingly well. But that was always the objective anyway.


  29. Behold! The Sinister One hisses!

  30. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    Yeah…i would imagine it would be kinda, sorta frustrating to suddenly have all those BILLIONS TO TIEF..and no goddamn where to hide it..lol


  31. Good Morning to all of Barbados…

    We already had a call to ban some bloggers. Soon we will see a call to the blogmaster to ban Hants for posting “excerpts from the Nation newspaper, when we get it here on daily basis from a vendor or online”

    I hope Hants and the blogmaster ignore these fools. Hants link are usually informative and add details to our discussion.


  32. @Pacha

    What is your definition of middle class in the Barbados experience?


  33. Gazzerts ,i stand by my stated position.For anyone to come on a blog and disrespect the blog owner should be banned.If you have an issue with that tough ,it is a matter of respect but as a wagon hopper i woulld not expect you to understand the point.As for Sarge, i could scroll past,but you are a hyprocrite and i will challenge you .You could like it or lump it.


  34. Early in the discussion there was mention of earning foreign exchange and in the budgetary proposals the Gov’t is removing the restrictions on Bajans opening accounts in foreign currency effective July 1st. I have heard that much of the foreign currency that visitors spend never see the inside of Banks so Gov’t must be hopeful that they can coax some of these funds from under the proverbial bed. The economists can weigh in on how this possible influx of foreign currency will impact the economy.

    BTW how is Non- Resident tax applied? In Canada it is a percentage of earnings on interest/dividends etc. and in Barbados it used to be the same, does that still apply?


  35. I am surprised that we agree on one point… In one of my past comments I likened it be being disrespectful to a host in his home,. I should also add that sometimes the blogmaster take positions that will draw fire from friendly and unfriendly sources. However, banning is not the answer,,,

    Do you realize how quickly this blog would die if only members of the MDF were allowed to contribute? How limited would be the contribution of some, if there was no Mariposa to rebut?

    I say, let the MDF, Salemites, pick-a-noise, …. all contribute

    All hail Mugabe.
    .
    TheoGazerts
    Ex-MDF (Mugabe Defense Force) member


  36. The Non resident tax referred to above is for Bajans living outside of Barbados not Bajans residing there.


  37. David

    It could mean whatever serves political ends.

    But you, of course, know well that the term ‘middle classes’, as locally defined, has long, generally, meant those who have navigated the miseducation system, receiving higher than median incomes, possess two or more cars, live in one of the concrete jungles, could afford to protect their children from the struggles of the masses, and so on

    Of course, they have no history of production of anything and have been, essentially, consumers and mainly parasitical.

  38. Robert Goren Avatar

    I have to agree with Mariposa that this TheOGazerts idiot should get a real job, because the blog has internal and external methods of policing its content.

    He needs to be reminded that there is no such thing as the Royal Barbados Underground Police Force and he is a mock police.


  39. Thanks for the clarification Pacha. You are correct this is the definition we use In Barbados. However we need to push on by redefining to a wealth creating people to sustain this segment.


  40. Not going to detract from this blog anymore. If you have time off from your real job, can you tell me which category of policing you fal under….. external or internal?
    Have a Great Day


  41. The producers are the workers at the bottom of the ladder in most cases.


  42. The political-managerial classes

  43. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @Tron
    “I hate the climate disciples.”
    ++++++++++++++++
    Whether you hate to pay attention to scientific evidence or not, you will have absolutely no effect on the facts:
    1. our tourism industry will be challenged by its large carbon footprint, and
    2. our tourism industry will be threatened by rising sea levels and consequent beach erosion.

    It matters not at all how much you hate “climate disciples,” you are completely correct that it is utter folly to depend on the tourist industry to build the Barbados economy.

  44. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    There is emerging here on BU a quite remarkable group of comedians; For years they criticised Stuart and company along with nationals living outside of the Homeland. No problem there. Now the same jokers are advising the Blogmaster to silence those, here and from overseas , who question anything about the current administration.
    Quite frankly, I never expected Mark Maloney to make a single penny under this administration. I honestly thought that he had made so much money under the Dems, that starvation was his only option. Far from, his Hyatt, Empire and Coverly have been given a new lease on life.
    I also predicted , after reading Heather Cole, that all like now at least Sinkler , would have been celebrating a year in the confines of Dodds. But this is what to expect from blind Bees and Dees, they are the most hypocritical political parasites to be found anywhere in the Western hemisphere. It is indeed , to Ms. Mottley’s credit, that when looking for senators and so on, she deliberately ensured that people with their navel strings buried in the Democratic Labour Party, were given preference. Ms. Mottley knows full well that once she keeps an overflowing supply of cool aid, these comedians will find themselves, of course using created identities, to defend her on the pages of BU. Barrow did the same thing and always found a little food for his BLP cohorts. We remember that the then opposition DLP, flashed checks at a public meeting and promised some fancy audit and integrity legislation , that never saw the light of day.And we were told by the BLP opposition that corruption was rampant and DLP ministers and others will be locked up. We then heard about a “coming to Jesus moment” arrangement.
    On the other hand for many years we suffered the same fate by the Dems on BU, who saw nothing wrong with what Stuart and company were doing. Of course at that time the Bees were elated to be joined by those living overseas, who joined them in castigating Stuart.
    Back then , just a short year or so ago, if you saw anything favorable in the Dems, you were called a Bee. These days if, you barley say Mottley , you are called a Dems.
    And my friends that is why the Dems and the Bees rule because regardless of election results , they both have a considerable storage of cool aid. Over the years, from Hamilton Lashley to Dr. Clyde Mascoll , this cool aid has been the go to drink for quenching political thirst.
    It is known that excessive intakes of cool aid leads to chronic political diarrhea.A pleasant day to those who continue to look at a mountain of faeces and call it gold. You are indeed brilliant and unique,your deposits on BU ironically have the color of gold until one gets close to it and realises it is not.


  45. @Lorenzo H
    As for Sarge, i could scroll past,but you are a hyprocrite and i will challenge you .You could like it or lump it.
    +++++++++
    The Lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep.

  46. WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog Avatar
    WARU, Crazy & Unstable, Hogging the Blog

    touchy, touchy..lol

  47. Georgie Porgie Avatar
    Georgie Porgie

    RE This is why it it meaningless to point to the low unemployment rate in the USA under Trump without also considering the quality of the jobs that are being created… jobs where people hold multiple jobs and are still below the poverty line.

    WOULD IT NOT BE MEANINGFUL IF IN BARBADOS ANY ONE COULD AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO LOW UNEMPLOYMENT WITH OR without also considering the quality of the jobs that are being created…

    WOULD IT NOT BE MEANINGFUL IF IN BARBADOS ANY ONE COULD AT THIS TIME POINT TO jobs EVEN where people hold multiple jobs and are still below the poverty line.

    the low unemployment rate in the USA under Trump SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED IT IS FAKE AND FAUX NEWS

    BUT CAN WE GET SOME JOBS——ANY SORT OF JOBS AT ALL CREATED IN BARBADOS BY ANY ONE IN LARGE NUMBERS?

    SINCE WE CAN NOT LET US THEREFORE DISCOUNT The low unemployment rate in the USA under Trump

    WUH WUNNA TINK?


  48. David

    The piece above by Sir William Skinner is worthy of its own thread.

  49. Georgie Porgie Avatar
    Georgie Porgie

    OUR BRILLIANT QC GRADUATE AND FORMER LAW AND THEOLOGICAL STUDENT OPINED
    That is why Obama did not boast about the economy.

    ACTUALLY SHITBAMA did not boast about the economy BECAUSE THERE WAS NO ECONOMY TO BOAST ABOUT………….JUST LIKE I DONT BOAST TO BE A BRAIN SURGEON, CAUSE I NEVER SERIOUSLY ENGAGED IN DISSECTING THE BRAIN IN A CADAVER .

    The reality on the ground is that even teachers in the USA need a second job to meet basic needs. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck or to use Bajan parlance – dey hand tuh mout.

    THIS BEING THE CASE DO YOU THINK THAT LOWERING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND CREATING ANY KIND OF JOB AT ALL WOULD HELP?

    GDP, unemployment figures and the Stock Market are inadequate indicators of how well the economy is doing for the majority of its citizens..And figures on wage increases mean nothing unless compared with inflation. One could actually get a wage increase and still be worse off.

    SO THEN IT IS UNWISE TO SEEK TO LOWER THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND CREATE ANY KIND OF JOB AT ALL? I JUST TRYING TO LEARN HERE

    WOULDNT IT BE NICE TO HAVE SOMEONE WHO CAN LOWER THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND CREATE ANY KIND OF JOB AT ALL IN BEAUTIFUL BEAUTIFUL BARBADOS TODAY?

    Trump’s figures just mean that the wealthy in the USA are doing exceedingly well. But that was always the objective anyway.

    IF SOMEONE COULD LOWER THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND CREATE ANY KIND OF JOB AT ALL IN BEAUTIFUL BEAUTIFUL BARBADOS TODAY, WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN? WOULD THAT BE BAD THAT SOME RICH PERSONS WERE DOING WELL TO BE ABLE TO PAY THE WAGES.

    WHAT DID SHITBAMA’S FIGURES MEAN?

    HOW MANY PEOPLE DO YOU KNOW THAT HAVE EVER GOT A JOB FROM A POOR MAN?

    DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY POOR PEOPLE WHO WERE UNABLE TO PAY ME IN BIM?
    DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY POOR PEOPLE WHO WERE UNABLE TO PAY TO HAVE THEIR PRESCRIPTIONS FILLED?

    DO PEOPLE ON BU EFFLUX FROM THEIR SHELVES OF HOUSTON BECAUSE THEY POSSESS THEM.

    I AM SPEAKING OF COURSE AS A SECOND


  50. William Skinner
    Writing a longer comment does not make it any more accurate. Note the date of this article and the projects mentioned.

    Barbados Today
    Maloney running things, says Mottley
    Barbados Today Barbados Today
    3 years ago

    Prominent developer Mark Maloney found himself in Opposition Leader Mia Mottley’s crosshairs as she led off debate in the House of Assembly on a no-confidence motion in the Freundel Stuart administration.

    Mottley questioned whether a number of projects undertaken by the developer had been approved by the Town & Country Planning Development Office (TCPDO) before they were actually allowed to get off the ground.

    She identified the entrance to the Villages at Coverley off the ABC Highway and the construction of the gas station in the development; Rock Hard Cement operations at the old Flour Mill site; the constructionof the Valery housing units in Brittons Hill; and the Bushy Park redevelopment.

    In the case of the latter project in St Philip, Mottley raised questions about a fence and ticket booth being constructed on the old railway track and the construction of the first of five planned clusters of luxury car suites.

    She also asked why the gas station in the Villages of Coverley was continuing operations, in defiance of TCPDO’s instructions for the removal of houses within 50 metres of the service station.

    Earlier in the debate, the Opposition Leader also levelled claims that the National Cultural Foundation had leased the old Empire Theatre to the Maloney Group Inc., even though the TCPDO had refused its 2013 application for a theatre and craft brewery as a result of the company’s failure to submit an environmental scoping study. That, she said, was after the BEAT Foundation had obtained approval from the Office of the Prime Minister for the restoration of the theatre last year, following an application submitted in 2012.

    “I have to ask myself, ‘who is running Barbados?’. “How do we get into the business of creating another profit centre for the same group of individuals? How does this Government explain a lease given to the Maloney Group Inc.; Town Planning approval refused; and the poor BEAT Foundation can’t get a lease, a sub-lease, a piece of lease . . . but they have Town Planning permission because, I believe, their proposal finds favour with those sensitive to heritage development.”

    Mottley also directed her attention to Hard Rock Cement, claiming that it had not received approval for construction at its current site.

    “It is bad enough that they were the beneficiary of an opportunity to run a cement plant on valuable port lands. When was that put out to a request for proposal? When did the port either do, or require of them, an environmental impact assessment?” Mottley asked.

    “All I want to know is when Town Planning will issue an enforcement notice.”

    The Opposition Leader said that apart from the issues surrounding the plant itself, she had learned that officers at the neighbouring Coast Guard headquarters were being affected by its operations.

    She claimed that the Chief of Staff of the Barbados Defence Force had written to Government indicating that there has been an unusual number of Coast Guard members developing upper respiratory tract infections.

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