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BU Covid Dash – Back to School Time

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If we are to judge from recent events like cricket at Kensington Oval and political campaigning – supported by utterances from the Chief Medial Officer and Minister Kerri Symmonds –  the government is about to switch to a getting ‘back to normal’ mode. We must do all that is possible to address educating our children. Crop Over will fall in line.

Attached are charts for the week ending 4th Feb 2022.  The major takeaways may be that the R0 chart is continuing to trend downward, as is the daily cases chart and that the Death’s and total isolations charts are continuing to trend upwards.  These changes need to be monitored over the next couple of weeks to determine any changing or continuing trends. I’ve reposted the positivity chart as there seems to have been some recent interest in that statistic – Source: Lyall Small (Click image to see BU COVID 19 Updates page)

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76 responses to “BU Covid Dash – Back to School Time”

  1. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadostoday.bb/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/DASHBOARD-February-3_edit-730×456.png

  2. David Avatar
    David

    Barbados dodges severe third wave

    Article by Randy Bennett
    Published on
    February 4, 2022

    The expectation that thousands of persons would become sick due to the Omicron outbreak has not materialized.

    Chief Medical Officer (CMO) The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George delivered the welcomed news today, saying that the third wave of COVID-19 had not been as devastating as previously predicted.

    During a press conference on January 5, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Anton Best explained that modelling conducted by the University of the West Indies forecasted that in a worst case scenario Barbados could witness a wave lasting six to seven weeks with as many as 3500 cases per day and a total of 91 000 infections during the period.

    He pointed out that a best case scenario would see a shorter wave lasting just over four weeks with a maximum of 1500 cases per day and 23 000 cases in total.

    Dr Best said the high number of infected persons could possibly lead to a scenario where as much as 700 people were hospitalized.

    To date, Barbados’ highest number of positive cases for a single day is 923, which was recorded on January 25.

    Speaking to members of the media on the sidelines of a donation of equipment at the St Philip District Hospital this morning, Dr George said he was grateful the numbers had been much fewer than initially predicted.

    He said the Ministry of Health and Wellness was continuing to encourage persons to get booster shots as they had been proven to provide an additional protection, especially against the Omicron variant.

    “…Fortunately many persons haven’t had to be hospitalized. We believe that the course of illness is not as severe as the Delta and I think we will get through this. As I have been telling the population all the time this is our third wave and we have gotten through each wave and I expect that we will get through this wave also.

    “Although there has been significant community spread we certainly continue to analyze the data daily and we believe that we are in our fifth to sixth week of the Omicron outbreak and the predictions of thousands of people have not come through and that is comforting, but at the same time I think the message remains the same,” Dr George said.

    “We continue to do our internal modeling which is slightly different from UWI’s modeling but I don’t think that we will reach the numbers that have been predicted to the press. However, we can control this by simply having persons comply with what we ask. The major area of compliance we are asking is with booster doses because I am convinced that boosters add an added layer of protection with respect to preventing severe disease and severe outcomes.”

    The CMO also revealed that the ministry had boosted its testing capabilities with the addition of three new testing sites.

    Dr George said the testing laboratories at The Crane Resort, Bayview and ChemScreen, were now available to do both PCR and antigen testing.

    “With respect to how we move forward this cannot be a Government only response and therefore the private sector is certainly welcomed,” he said.
    randybennett@barbadostoday.bb

    Source: Nation

  3. David Avatar
    David

    CLASS ACTION

    Parents to take stand today for safe in-person return
    By Antoinette Connell antoinetteconnell@nationnews.com
    Protesting parents and teachers will assemble outside Government Headquarters today from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. calling on authorities to safely return children to in-person classes.
    The action by the group, Safely Open Schools Barbados, comes after a circulating petition garnered 900 signatures as of yesterday. Members say they fear the long-term effects on Barbados as some children without devices or the Internet are being left behind in the online classes.
    Last night, new Minister of Education Kay McConney appeared on television reiterating that the proposed February 21 date for inperson classes was on the cards.
    Prior to that, Caribbean economist Marla Dukharan, one of the spokespersons for the group agitating for the reopening of the schools, said a letter had been sent to Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley requesting an audience. She said they were fighting for all children and their parents, some of whom were either let go from jobs or quit in order to help with the online classes.
    “This is affecting a very broad segment of the population and I don’t think we realise how much people were being affected and how many were being affected. I think when we are told this date and another date and then it keeps getting pushed back, and then we are seeing other countries opening up, it really is kind of confusing.
    “Barbados is one of the most opened countries right now in terms of its COVID restrictions, yet the children are not able to go back to school. We felt this is not making sense. It is not consistent with the overall stance and we felt like we needed to ventilate the issue and ventilate the information,” she said.
    Dukharan, who started the petition, quoted United Nations (UN) Secretary General António Guterres, who said schools should be the first thing opened and the last thing closed, adding education was the foundation on which Barbados was built following Independence.
    She said the UN emphasis was on opening up schools, “not fetes, not election campaign rallies, not cricket matches. Societies do not depend as much on those kinds of events as they do on an educated workforce and educated children”.
    She added: “That is what Barbados was built on when this country gained Independence. It is so shocking to me that this
    has diminished in importance, it seems. We have a situation here where for the past two years children have not been going to school. It varies but my children haven’t been in school for more than four or five months. Not everybody is able to work from home, not all jobs are amenable to that structure. I know women who have either lost their jobs or had to give up their jobs because they had to stay home and do online classes with their children.”
    Dukharan warned that what was happening now will have long-term effects on the children and on their earning potential.
    “The nation is going to be affected for a long time if you have skills gaps and learning gaps in the working population, and some of these kids will soon be in the working population. This is going to have serious near-term and long-term negative impact on children, on their families and it is going to have severe long-term implications for the socioeconomy of Barbados.
    “There isn’t enough information out there about how this is affecting children, how many kids are affected, how many families are affected and the long-term effects of this. This group came together because we are very, very motivated and passionate about getting all kids back to school,” she said.
    The group, formed recently, consists of professionals, including doctors, teachers and principals of public and private schools.
    Dukharan dismissed suggestions that the protest was all about the private schools.
    “That is so not true. The kids who are underprivileged are the ones most disaffected – they are the ones who need to be fought for the hardest, they are the ones who are being left behind more so than the children who have access to devices and have access to the Internet. They don’t have a voice,” she said.

    Source: Nation

  4. David Avatar
    David

    Face-to-face classes still the goal for Feb 21

    EDUCATION OFFICIALS remain committed to a February 21 resumption of face-to-face classes.
    So said new Minister of Education Kay McConney in a televised statement last night.
    “It is with determined effort that we are collaborating across Government and will continue to engage all of the shareholders in our country’s educational success to make the move to the return to face-to-face school on that date a smooth one,” she said.
    Schools were scheduled to reopen on January 10, but this was pushed to January 24 following an increase in cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Former Minister of Education Santia Bradshaw subsequently announced the February date on the campaign trail the night before the January 19 General Election.
    McConney said the ministry has held five meetings with partners over a five-month period, and had yesterday extended an invitation to them to continue discussions over the next week, promising an update to the nation afterwards.
    “We recognise the need to ready all systems for the safe reopening of schools . . . . Our intention in the best interest of our children is the finalisation of the road map with a view to both public and private schools resuming face-to-face classes on February 21,” McConney
    said.
    Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, education and health officials have been developing the road map which outlines the physical requirements and support systems needed for the safest return to school.
    It was developed by the ministry in conjunction with the Ministry of Health and Wellness, teachers of public and private schools, the Barbados Union of Teachers, Barbados Secondary Teachers’ Union, the Association of Principals of Public Primary Schools, Barbados Association of Principals of Public Secondary Schools and the National Council of Parent-Teacher Associations. (RA)

    Source: Nation

  5. John Avatar
    John

    Visitors can’t done!!

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-snow-to-fall-for-days-as-temperatures-across-the-country-plummet-to-3c/ar-AATugU6?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

  6. John Avatar
    John

    Its in the water in the uk.

    Even the dogs catching it!!

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/familyhealth/mystery-illness-plaguing-uk-dogs-thought-to-be-a-coronavirus/ar-AATtbca?ocid=msedgntp

  7. Observing Avatar
    Observing

    @David
    “the government is about to switch to a getting ‘back to normal’ mode.”
    Yes indeed!!

    No choice after Independence, Christmas, Old Years AND Elections….. Hypocrites much would they be.
    Both the CMO and Symmonds are being disingenuous.

    They KNOW they have zero control over the community spread but they also KNOW they have/had to the money train flowing.

    Children and schools as usual have become the political and collateral damage.

    Just observing

  8. John Avatar
    John

    Brits to pay more to be infected with COVID!!

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/fears-as-water-bills-hike-set-to-reach-up-to-10/ar-AATuTa1?ocid=msedgntp

  9. David Avatar
    David

    Back to school talks expected next week – Starcom Network

    https://starcomnetwork.net/blog/2022/02/04/back-to-school-talks-expected-next-week/

  10. John Avatar
    John

    Deaths in Israel, the most vaccinated country, are rising.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/israel-s-rise-in-covid-deaths-is-an-important-lesson-for-the-uk-on-vaccines/ar-AATvo5U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

  11. David Avatar
    David

    Time to get children back in the classroom, says group

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/02/05/time-get-children-back-classroom-says-group/

  12. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    @ David,

    No Afican Bajans protesting ?

  13. David Avatar
    David

    @Hants

    Do you recall the demographic of the Cahill protesters? When the upper class starts to protest- Houston, we have a problem.

  14. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    There are now 169 people in isolation facilities and 12 280 in home isolation. No deaths were recorded and the death toll from the virus remains at 286.

  15. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    @ David,

    It seems that it is your bounden duty to link everything to DLP missed deeds like Cahill. Buh doan mine me. I jes mekkin sport. lol

    The Upper class want their children back in school. It is reasonable to expect that most Bajans want the same but some may not have bus fare to get to the protest.

    It is -16 C where I live and +24 C inside my living room. I am watching Bejing winter olympics.

  16. David Avatar
    David

    @Hants

    They found bus fare to attend political meetings.

  17. John Avatar
    John

    Enjoy the Berlin Olympics.

  18. TLSN Avatar
    TLSN

    @ Hants
    “No Afican Bajans protesting ?”

    With the predicted influx of 80,000 migrants, plus members from their extended families according to Frau Mia. One can say this standard will soon become the norm.

    You should know how Bajan blacks are generally not permitted to hold demonstrations.

    I am certain our friend, Cuhdear Bajan, will be able to answer your question. She usually has an answer for everything.

    It’s not too difficult to assess what is happening in Barbados. Do some research on the numeric decline of the black African diaspora throughout South America. Several methods of mass genocide were employed to cull their numbers. This method was supplemented with the importation of millions of foreigners to gain a numerical advantage over black Africans.

    Mia must be aware of the history of the black diaspora in the “new world”. She is being encouraged to replicate this method of displacement which will accelerate the degradation of her own people for thirty pieces of silver.

  19. David Avatar
    David

    You have resorted to despicable behaviour of telling lies. There is no reason to lie to discuss issues of the day.

  20. kammie.holder Avatar
    kammie.holder

    Let me say this loud.

    KINDERGARTENS HAVE NEVER CLOSED AND THESE KIDS WERE NOT VACCINATED.

    THUS THE STUPIDITY OF SUGGESTING 5 TO 11 YEAR OLDS MUST BE VACCINATED MUST BE CHALLENGED.

    5 TO 11 YEAR OLDS REPRESENT THE LAST HOPE OF OUR REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH.

    NEITHER CAN WE ALLOW THIS GOVERNMENT TO PLAY RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH OUR CHILDREN.

    SWEDEN, IN THE ABSENCE OF SUFFICIENT DATA REFUSES TO VACCINATE THIS AGE GROUP.

    WE MUST NEVER ACCEPT THE GOB IDEA OF MAKING ANY COVID19 VACCINE AS A MANDATORY ENTRY REQUIREMENT FOR SCHOOL.

    Take a read https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/math-pandemic-covid-19-death-to-case-ratio-us-0-9-yo-scerra-

  21. kammie.holder Avatar
    kammie.holder

    THE MATHEMATICS OF COVID FOR THE CREDULOUS AND INCREDULOUS

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/math-pandemic-covid-19-death-to-case-ratio-us-0-9-yo-scerra-

    “Consideration for other medical conditions
    An important aspect to consider in the evaluation of deaths and hospitalizations would be the number of people with other relevant medical conditions, such as cancer, immunodeficiency disorders, etc.

    Unfortunately, this information is mostly missing in the CDC dataset.

    In the 228 deaths occurred in the age group 0-9 y/o only 7 individuals were explicitly reported as healthy (no other medical conditions) and only 9 were explicitly reported to have other medical conditions. In all other records, the information about the presence of other medical conditions is missing.

    2021 US Covid 19 Death-To-Case Ratio for Age Group 0-9 y/o.
    Finally, we calculate the US Covid 19 Death To case ratio in 2021 for the age group 0-9 y/o:

    Deaths: 228

    Cases: 1,558,386

    Death To Case Ratio: (228/1,558,386) = about 0.015% (146 per million)

    This means that for every million cases of Covid 19 in this age group in U.S., 146 died in 2021.

    2021 US Covid 19 Mortality Rate for Age Group 0-9 y/o.
    To help understand the risk in perspective, let’s also calculate the US Covid 19 mortality rate in 2021 for the age group 0-9 y/o:

    Deaths: 228

    Population size: 30,640,000

    Mortality rate: (228/30,640,000) = 0.0007% (7 per million)

    This means that for every 1 million children in U.S., 7 died of Covid 19 in 2021.

    We can compare this rate (0.0007%) with the overall mortality rate in US in 2021, which is about 0.1%, to have an idea of how lower the risk in this age group is.

    Final Considerations and Conclusion
    Based on the numbers calculated from the CDC dataset, Covid 19 is not a significant threat for infants and children.

    In 2021 (so far), for the age group 0-9 y/o, only 228 deaths occurred on a population of over 30 million.

    We know that this number also includes infants and children which had comorbidities, although the surveillance dataset that the CDC made available to the public is too incomplete to infer a proportion.

    To give you a term of comparison with the 228 deaths: according to the National Weather Service, around 270 people are struck by lightning each year in U.S. [4]

    Panicking over the possibility that a healthy infant or child in this age group would die of Covid 19 is about as irrational as the fear that you would be struck by lightning within a year.”

  22. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    On the subject of black bajans absent from the protest or lack of interest
    Don’t forget their are two Barbadoes
    Very noticeable yesterday was absence of police intrusion and intimidation
    A well played out scenario when blacks have use protest to get messages across
    BTW it would be of interest how long did it take for this group to get the permission to.protest and if the numbers allowed was in the way and manner of COVID protocols
    However back to why blacks shy away from protest
    A picture is worth a thousand words before and after

  23. David Avatar
    David

    The march was given permission for 75 to march and from the actors highlighted the march was initiated by high end private schools where expats and minority children attend.

  24. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    Kammie
    Covid19 was NEVER an issue worthy of the kind of global response that we have seen. It was exploited (and created?) by the usual suspects of money-hungry demons that dominate this now doomed world of ours.
    From the very beginning it was clear that with a mortality rate of .05% it was about as serious as flu, traffic accidents or falling off a ladder, and deserved a commensurate response.
    Some of the already wealthiest demons on Earth were however, able to multiply their wealth many times, while the other 99.9% are now essentially broke …and about to become serfs.

  25. David Avatar
    David

    @Bush Tea

    What about old people and those with NCDs?

  26. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    What about old people and those with NCDs?
    ~~~~~~
    Boss, are you familiar with how life works?
    It is given to a man threescore and ten…. what did you think would happen afterwards (ie, after he becomes old…?)
    Also,
    People who are ill have always had a higher predisposition to die before their allowed 70…..since time begun!!
    Nothing new so far…
    So what did you want to know about old and sick people again?

  27. David Avatar
    David

    @Bush Tea

    The blogmaster had the inclination that a godfearing man like yourself would be partial to supporting health policy that protects the vulnerable.

  28. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    DavidFebruary 6, 2022 7:40 AM

    The march was given permission for 75 to march and from the actors highlighted the march was initiated by high end private schools where expats and minority children attend
    Xxxxxx
    However the question of blacks lack of interest in organizing protest is one that needs addressing
    The simplistic answers given does not take into consideration intimidation or a system geared to push back black influence in areas of high regard seeing blacks as high risk mechanism which might derail govt policies
    Looking at the way the nurses are being treated or ignore one can observed that their is much govt interference that prohibits and intimidates other nurses from acting upon what is right in their support for the nurses
    Hence blacks know and understand that organized protest on their part would not gain much benefit while intimidation is at play to stop them

  29. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/02/05/parents-get-our-children-back-in-the-classroom-please/

    “Do you recall the demographic of the Cahill protesters? When the upper class starts to protest- Houston, we have a problem.”

    I couldn’t tell their class …

  30. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    I would not advicingly or otherwise tell Blackett what position to take on this issue yea or nay
    But one must becareful of a power setting precedent
    One which in the future can turn over much power to any leader to ammend the Constitution at will
    When the Constitution has already laid out defined laws to follow
    This issue is one of such in which a PM sets out to inject power and interpretation using the word “offer “to gain political power and support
    Needless to say the Constitution is legally written in language as a way forward for govt not to use political language as a sign of goodwill towards individuals groups or parties but as an aspect for the benevolence of the safety and security of all the people and country

  31. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    A health care system DOES protect the vulnerable.
    BUT..
    Is that what we are doing by destroying our children’s future?
    Of course the vulnerable should be protected. aggressively…!! But not at the expense of the young / innocent.

    In progressive (UNSELFISH) societies, the old and vulnerable actually make SACRIFICES for the young and the innocent…
    NOT VICE VERSA!!

  32. David Avatar
    David

    That is because you don’t live here.

  33. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    Gazzerts

    “Do you recall the demographic of the Cahill protesters? When the upper class starts to protest- Houston, we have a problem.”
    Xxxxx
    That problem would be solved with haste

  34. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    Nice clean uppercut.
    😃😂
    Was expecting a ‘steupse’

  35. David Avatar
    David

    We have to protect everyone Bush Tea.

  36. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    “They found bus fare to attend political meetings.”

    Some cannot catch a break. They get cuss if they stay home and accused of having no interest in the country. Go to a political meeting and that is also sin…

  37. John Avatar
    John

    TheOGazertsFebruary 6, 2022 8:50 AM

    “They found bus fare to attend political meetings.”

    Some cannot catch a break. They get cuss if they stay home and accused of having no interest in the country. Go to a political meeting and that is also sin…

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Which bus fare what?

    Look at the demographic at the DLP opening in Haggatt Hall in January.

    People come by cars.

    All de white people on Baystreet on foot.

    Clearly the upper class at the DLP meeting given their mode of transport!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    https://imgur.com/JDyr7nO

  38. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    We have to protect everyone Bush Tea.
    ~~~~~~
    From what? Death? LOL ha ha ha …murda!!!

    You clearly drank the koolaid.
    Very likely chilled and sweetened with the ‘fear of Covid’.

    Remember David.
    Always check to make sure that what you are fleeing from, …is actually chasing you….

  39. Kammie Holder Avatar
    Kammie Holder

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/israel-s-rise-in-covid-deaths-is-an-important-lesson-for-the-uk-on-vaccines/ar-AATvo5U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

    “Israel is among the most highly vaccinated and boosted countries on the planet. [Yet] they are breaking daily records for Covid deaths”, tweeted Aaron Kheriaty, a professor of psychiatry who was recently fired by the University of California for refusing to abide by its vaccine mandate.”

    Too many missteps and egos afraid to accept erroneous decisions are being made. Rather than accept errors at the scientific and political levels they were allowed to continue. You now have the willingly vaccinated losing trust

  40. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    My opiniion
    Covid-19 is complicated.
    Was it a hoax? No
    Was it Y2K? No.
    Could it be that the “positive outcomes” we are observing is really due to the protective/preventive measures that were put in place to protect the general population? At this time, we can only guess at how bad things would be if these protections were not in place. (Cuhdear et al: please note the use of quotation marks with “positive outcomes”. They mean something).

    Covid-19 is complicated.

  41. John Avatar
    John

    All the Governments needed to do was to take mitigating measures against waterborne spread.

    It will come out in time!!

  42. John Avatar
    John

    55% of Israel’s water is supplied by desal.

    The source is the sea into which all manner of runoff, wastewater and sewage goes.

    Floods increase the contamination and some gets through the treatment.

    Israel had floods just before cases surged.

    The UK’s rivers are riddled in sewage. This is the source of their drinking water.

    The UK’s problem will be smaller that Israel’s because rainfall is always flushing the rivers.

    Israel just perpetuates a vicious cycle, sewage into the sea, treatment, usage, then, sewage back into the sea.

    Repeat.

    UK’s fate is determined by floods.

    Israel’s fate is determined by Israel, floods can make it worse but it’s their source of water that is the issue.

    Eventually after numerous reinfections from the water Israelis will become inured to the problem and a level of immunity will be acquired that never fully protects because of the constant reinfections.

    It will spread beyond the populations supplied by the 55% desal water into those who have no immunity in which it will be a killer.

    Hence the rise in deaths in Israel.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-in-nine-recent-virus-cases-in-israel-are-reinfections-report/

    https://imgur.com/w3o3B3W

  43. Crimson66 Avatar
    Crimson66

    https://www.instagram.com/tv/CZIBBCqoy_n/?utm_medium=share_sheet

  44. John Avatar
    John

    The foolish man doesn’t even realise the vaccine doesn’t work!!

    It certainly isn’t going to stop him getting infected if she has been vaccinated.

  45. John Avatar
    John

    Besides, he is waiting on a bus possibly full of people some of whom may or may not be vaccinated.

    That guy seems drunk.

  46. John Avatar
    John

    Oistins I suspect ram off with the visitors.

    The vendors making a killing and the music licking down in the distance.

    No more COVID in Barbados!!

  47. John Avatar
    John

    JohnFebruary 6, 2022 6:01 PM

    Check the nightly rates on hotels in the area of Oistins.

    Evahbody happy.

    De $$$$ flowing.

    https://www.expedia.com/Oistins-Friday-Night-Fish-Fry-Oistins.d553248621532873342.Vacation-Attraction

  48. John Avatar
    John

    Now I looking closer the music like it coming from the Balls area.

    The racket been going on for hours.

  49. John Avatar
    John

    Bajans seem to have figured out that ohmigod is not contagious and so long as the keep clear of the visitors, the chances of them getting it are slim.

  50. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    TheOGazerts; You said above “Covid-19 is complicated.”

    True!

    Yuh figured out what’s wrong with the vaccination data yet? How to explain occasional higher percentages of sick inmates in the fully vaccinated category than in the unvaccinated category? Not just here but overseas as well?

The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.

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