BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers
Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022. I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus. Total isolations are increasing gradually but Official Isolations are going down slowly and the Reproductive rates are actually decreasing at this stage. Deaths are still relatively low. The charts seem to be indicating that we might yet escape the dire UWI model predictions. So far, so good.
Lyall Small
Barbados Underground 
January 14, 2022
A strange new symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats.
By Katherine Rodriguez | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Symptoms of the omicron variant differ from past COVID-19 symptoms, making the coronavirus more difficult to detect unless tested.
According to health experts, a new and unique symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats.
“People aren’t reporting a loss of taste or smell as much with omicron as they were with previous variants,” Dr. John Torres, NBC News senior medical correspondent told the Today Show. “But people are reporting night sweats, which is a very strange symptom that they say they’re having.”
But what are night sweats exactly and how did they get associated with COVID-19?
Here is what you need to know.
What are night sweats?
Night sweats are “repeated episodes of extreme perspiration” that might soak your bedsheets, according to The Mayo Clinic.
They are often related to an illness or an underlying medical condition.
Night sweats were most commonly associated with medical conditions ranging in severity from the flu to cancer but were not associated with the coronavirus until the omicron variant of COVID-19 started spreading globally.
Night sweats are associated with a fever, too, but a fever is not a common symptom of the omicron variant of COVID-19.
How did night sweats start getting associated with the omicron variant?
Night sweats are one of the unique symptoms that medical professionals say distinguishes the omicron variant from other COVID-19 variants. A scratchy, sore throat is another.
Doctors treating patients in hospitals and urgent cares documented more patients coming in with the omicron variant of COVID-19 reporting night sweats.
Dr. Amir Khan, a physician with the United Kingdom’s National Health Service, said people should now look for night sweats as a symptom of the omicron variant of COVID so they can get tested.
“It’s important we keep on top of these symptoms, because if we’re going to keep track of omicron here and worldwide we need to be able to test people with these symptoms,” Dr. Khan told The Sun.
What are the other symptoms of the omicron variant of COVID-19?
The main symptoms of the omicron variant according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other sources are the following:
Those who test positive for the omicron variant of COVID-19 are less likely to have a loss of taste or smell, when compared to the COVID strains from 2020 and most of 2021.
But they are more likely to have the unique symptom of night sweats.
How can I protect myself from the omicron variant and its symptoms?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says you should get one of the three COVID-19 vaccines that are available to you — Moderna, Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson — along with wearing a mask indoors in public, staying six feet apart from others, and washing your hands often with soap and water.
The agency also recommends that those ages 12 years and older should get a booster shot five months after their initial series of the Pfizer vaccine, or Moderna vaccines for those 18 and older.
What’s next?
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We need to separate out the imported cases.
Until we do that, the numbers are useless.
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The same sort of thing is playing out in Singapore which has open borders now but keeps track of imported cases.
The Ro number is very similar to ours.
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Dirt FarmerJanuary 14, 2022 10:42 PM
January 14, 2022
A strange new symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Don’t forget the diarrhea which is a pretty standard symptom in most waterborne diseases as are many of the others including shortness of breath!!.
What symptoms does Omicron cause?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lists the possible symptoms of a SARS-CoV-2 infection without specifying a variant. These are:
fever or chills
cough
shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
fatigue
muscle or body aches
headache
new loss of taste or smell
sore throat
congestion or runny nose
nausea or vomiting
diarrhea
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Not catching it also works well too.
Fix the water.
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Source: Nation
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I see Canada has stopped testing, maxed out!!
The authorities are infecting their own people through the water and don’t even seem to know it.
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The article quoted is a tough read (for me). I used the search term “COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Survey Report 2021” and ended up with a download of the T&T summary of responses. Would love to see the summary for Barbados and the actual questionnaire.
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John this virus has affected the world
Don’t u think.by now tat some one other than yourself would have arrived and concluded that water is a source or carrier of the virus
The scientific professionals are doing extensive monitoring and research of the virus wouldn’t water samples worldwide not be included
You seem to be fixated and one of having a narcissistic mindset of wanting to be right
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While here in Barbados the Covid talking heads are speaking about vaccine
International countries are struggling to keep business’s open because of shortages in the work environment and good supplies
Many stores are experiencing supply shortages and the virus is causing a lack of employment
Barbados would soon be feeling such an effect
The election now in full swing with many promises would soon find out that competing with Covid is no joke when the supply chain is broken
A problem that international countries are finding hard to deal with
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Found the full report (a pdf file, do I will not share the link). Found the Trinidad breakout (👍 a pdf file, do I will not share the link).
Cannot find the Barbados breakout. Talking heads prefer to run the numbers by you instead of letting you read for yourself. Cannot find the actual survey
Here is how the numbers can be distributed in future.. the links provides a nice summary of the results and the actual survey
https://www.pcchd.org/309/Vaccine-Hesitancy-Survey-Report-2021
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@John
Here is why I view your graphs with a great deal of suspicion
1) no label for the y axis. It is true that there is the heading ‘weekly growth rate’ but see 4).
2) the word ‘Flood’ is there. I doubt this can be found in the original plot (if there is one)
3) no real explanation of 1.38.. is it R0 or is it a seat rate?
4) Looks like two ‘snippets’ were combined
5) No link so I can check the source
@Lyall
Curious about your calculation of R0
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angela coxJanuary 15, 2022 6:58 AM
John this virus has affected the world
Don’t u think.by now tat some one other than yourself would have arrived and concluded that water is a source or carrier of the virus
The scientific professionals are doing extensive monitoring and research of the virus wouldn’t water samples worldwide not be included
You seem to be fixated and one of having a narcissistic mindset of wanting to be right
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Fascinated, not fixated.
Can’t believe something as obvious as this could get by all the experts.
Watching the Australians go after Novak and they can’t seem to twig that the difference between WA and the other half of their continent gives them the solution.
Anyway, enjoying myself and more importantly, leaving a trail here and elsewhere.
Somebody is going to have to do some serious accounting.
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Here is the Singapore link Grasshopper.
This is where I got the graphs.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-new-cases-deaths-omicron-imported-moh-dec-31-2409121
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Google
Singapore Imported Cases
Taiwan Imported Cases
etc.
The flood I put in because Singapore suddenly had a problem afterwards.
Here is the flood in Singapore.
Interesting link below as it deals with how they are making defenses against it.
Always ahead of the game.
I assumed floods in Singapore in April and August 2021 it was common knowledge.
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Looks like November too.
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TheOGazertsJanuary 15, 2022 7:48 AM
@John
Here is why I view your graphs with a great deal of suspicion
1) no label for the y axis. It is true that there is the heading ‘weekly growth rate’ but see 4).
2) the word ‘Flood’ is there. I doubt this can be found in the original plot (if there is one)
3) no real explanation of 1.38.. is it R0 or is it a seat rate?
4) Looks like two ‘snippets’ were combined
5) No link so I can check the source
@Lyall
Curious about your calculation of R0
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Singapore opened its borders like Barbados but you can get more information from Singapore’s numbers than you can from those in Barbados.
Both have two populations they are sampling.
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@🐇/🐰
Your link increased your credibility with me. Credibility in the data that were provided (not your theory)
Resist adding text
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Grasshopper
The R0 number is really crap because it assumes people can only be infected from other people.
No one understands it but because it is a single number it is easy to use and makes presenters appear super intelligent!!
Obviously if people can be infected without being around other people through the water in their homes then the number is meaningless.
Pay attention to all of the assumptions in this video which go in to its fabrication.
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If you watch the video which is real sexy and apparently giving all the answers, then you understand why people completely missed the simple obvious facts.
Again, Western Australia puts this theorising to bed.
People are moving around but yet it is not spreading.
In the rest of Australis, people are also moving around but it is!!
Obviously the theory is flawed.
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“Obviously if people can be infected without being around other people through the water in their homes then the number is meaningless.”
How many people / cases do you know where people have become infected when they have had no contact with anyone
Using Obviously makes you sound Patronising and Condescending
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Anyone who has had the symptoms caused by waterborne diseases like diarrhea, vomiting, shortness of breath have probably contracted their COVID from water!!
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It’s a bit gruesome to watch but this is what is happening as far as I can see.
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555dubstreetJanuary 15, 2022 9:34 AM
Using Obviously makes you sound Patronising and Condescending
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That’s the point.
It gets people to read what I am writing which you obviously have so it works.
I’m only interested in you not becoming like Mr. Frog above.
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Thanks for your R0 post. I found text but did not find a video. I am curious as to how Lyall is calculating R0 daily.
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“It gets people to read what I am writing which you obviously have so it works.
I’m only interested in you not becoming like Mr. Frog above.”
You are a smart ass although you stink
Water has cleansing properties
and diluting properties
Water does not appear to spread Covid as confirmed by the World Health Organization …
as Americans would say you suck
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@🐇/🐰
I hope that you and I can continue to talk without going beyond Grasshopper and Rabbit.
——xx—–
I would not refer to statistics as crap, but I have concerned about how they are derived. I will not support your water theory, but breakthrough infection and mutation (new variants) makes me leery of the numbers being provided as the models being used may need some tweaking.
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TheOGazerts;
Re. the reproductive rate calculation, I used a Reproductive rate formula derived from dissasembling the formula in the Barbados Google sheets spreadsheet. I then tested that formula by inserting it in my Covid-19 master spreadsheet and comparing the derived Reproductive rate numbers from my data with the published Google sheets numbers for data between October 2021 and yesterday.
The URL for the Google sheets spreadsheet is below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18GokWZdhzqoNjkr_92myX0Gbvi4MQp6rzp2zInZMu3E/edit#gid=329198075
The formula is a simple one which essentially sums the seven days incidence data for a particular date and then divides that number by the sum of similar data for seven days earlier.
Hope this helps!
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@Lyall
I haven’t checked as yet, but let me say two things
(1) An excellent response
(2) I love the fact that you can provide a link on the method used.
Transparency is admired.
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TheO
Watch Singapore.
Fit the floods then fit the imported cases.
You will see they fit like magic.
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TheOGazerts;
You said above: “—–but breakthrough infection and mutation (new variants) makes me leery of the numbers being provided as the models being used may need some tweaking”.
I agree with you totally especially re. the Barbados Vaccinations x Isolation type breakdowns, the most recent of which can be interpreted as suggesting that Full Vaccinations are just marginally better than no vaccinations in reducing symptoms and that partial vaccinations actually give the best outcomes. Will try to expand on this later but I think that the figures might be pointing to a very serious problem.
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John the blogmaster may soon start to push a view that with flooding people may have a tendency to spend more time indoors and therefore create the opportunity for increased transmissibility of the more active Omicron.
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@ David Bu
Are the statisticians fighting the numbers OR massaging them? They seem to be trying to express blood from stones. One has to start with a model of Epidemiology. Numbers do not speak for themselves.
@ Lyallsmall
What conceptually is a virus reproduction rate? Who/what is doing the reproduction?
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@Vincent
The title is about the country finding ways to carry on its business despite the numbers.
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Floods only happen sporadically!!!
Watch what is happening in Singapore.
Local cases have bottomed out after recent floods BUUUUUUUT cases are rising.
But the local population is holding.
It’s the imported ones that are causing the rise.
Which is my point, the numbers in Barbados are meaningless without the breakdown of imported cases.
You can’t calculate a single Ro.
There are two populations and to some extent they are separate.
I say one is dominant and reflects the Ro of its parent population in the UK or wherever.
I suspect the local population is holding, possibly falling.
… but we need the FOREX, so once the two populations are separate, go for it!!
We are just not doing a good job with our data presentation and it is understandable, Bajans can be xenophobic!!
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Fascinated
Narcissist are indeed Fascinated with projects as well as having a morbid fixation on things which they belive is out of the reality and control of others
Hence your Fascinated fixation on Covid having a belief which u have formally convinced your self that the problem lies in the water
Watching others follow you down the Covid hole to.find water for more than 9mths is indeed fascinating
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DavidJanuary 15, 2022 11:19 AM
@Vincent
The title is about the country finding ways to carry on its business despite the numbers.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I am explaining how the country is carrying on its business and why opening the borders is a fair gamble.
Singapore took it.
What I suspect will happen is the local population will stay at its level and not be significantly impacted by the imported cases.
Unfortunately, unlike Singapore we don’t know what the local level is,
All bets are off if floods occur.
However, there is a simple protocol to follow which is routinely followed at Bowmanston after heavy rains.
Shut down the offending source as we get floods.
For how long?
Looks like could be up to two months.
The Zone 1 Protection area takes care of the bulk of our water where COVID is concerned.
It is as simple as that.
Long term, sewer the housing areas around the desal plant.
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@ David BU
Is Barbados closed to business? OR is one sector affected more severely by a global pandemic? That industry probably contributes more to the contagion than other sectors. Therefore protocols relating to that sector may require special attention.. In life one has to make choices ,however uncomfortable they may be. It is simply a ,matter of necessity. We are dealing with uncertainty. AND we are managing as best we can.
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Vincent
You are right.
You can’t just apply the math unless you understand the physical model you seek to predict.
It is obvious the physical model based on airborne transmission is not the correct one.
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Agree with you Vincent.
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John; The above graph does not bear any resemblance to the graph on which you added “Floods”
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Lyall
Look at the x axis and you will see it is only from November last year and for cases whereas the cases/million graph is for over 2 years.
I like the case/million graphs because it is easy to compare like with like and the y axis is irrelevant.
What you have to do is look at the same period.
… and … look at the cases graph but only in the period marked PERIOD!!.
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I would diagnose Singapore’s problem as follows.
The water extracted from raw sewage and the sea still has remnants of the virus.
Nature has to clear the source water from the inputs to the treatment plants.
Once it did, cases fell.
Singapore then opened its borders.
Cases rose, but not because of water, because people arriving even though they were vaccinated and tested, still developed COVID.
The same two population model which I say we face.
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We had a water problem.
Nature cleared it for us for free.
Same in Singapore.
It will happen over time all over the world.
Some countries like Brazil will smell hell for a while because natural processes are both creating and sweeping away the virus.
Until nature settles down they are left to their own devices.
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Having got over our water problem we opened our borders.
So we created another problem, still related to water, but in other countries.
The virus can be eradicated but it means the countries of the world INDIVIDUALLY need to figure out ways to defend their water supplies from floods.
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Google Taiwan Imported cases and you will see Taiwan’s current rise in cases is due to the fact it opened its borders.
Every country faces the same choice, when to open its borders.
Cases will naturally rise, hence BAMP’s concern.
But the gamble here is worth taking.
The gamblers better make sure they understand that at the first sign of floods, know which cock to lock off.
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TEN THOUSAND PEOPLE EVERY SINGLE MONTH.
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There you go
Two populations.
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6 flights a day from merry old England.
How many seats per plane?
Multiply it by 6 and you know that is how many tests being done in the Tourist population.
So if a plane could take 250 people, every day there are probably over 1200 tourists to test.
Which jives with what I am seeing at the Sky Mall test site, very few tests.
You could use this to weight the tests and end up with the two Ro’s for the two different populations.
Once the Ro for the local population is in control, it is mainly the Hotel Staff who are at risk in the so called “Safe Areas” with the vaccinated and tested visitors!!
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Another super spreader event could happen shortly, but not here!!
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsunami-advisory-west-coast-california-oregon-washington-alaska/
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When we were told the Best DoSantos lab was buying all these extra testing kits and we were left to assume the worst for our population, we were misled.
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Tests could go as high as 10K per day!!
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Weather
Wednesday January 19, 2022
Showers early with scattered clouds.
Temperature 83/75 Degrees F*
Wind 19 MPH
Humidity 70 percent
Precipitation 44 percent/Amount 0.06″
Sunshine 6:25AM
Sunset 5:53PM
Subject to change slightly.
Covid Awareness = High
Voter Turnout = 59 percent.
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The UWI worst case figure of 3,500 cases per day is based on a 20-30% positivity ratio in the 10,000 visitors who will be present at any one time.
We only got 2 things to worry about, floods in the UK and Floods here!!
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@John
You love more water than “Noah & Moses”.
You’re a walking tsunami…Lord help US.
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If you look carefully you will see it is Geography and Nature that fascinate me.
Let’s look at Taiwan now for a moment and its imported cases.
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202201140009
“The weekly record of 140 imported Omicron infections was a sizable increase on the 79 cases recorded from Dec. 31 to Jan. 6, reflecting the growing dominance of the contagious variant abroad. The first cases of imported Omicron infection in Taiwan were reported on Dec. 11.”
We are looking at the same phenomenon as Taiwan, THEGROWING DOMINANCE OF THE CONTAGIOUS VARIANT ABROAD!!
Taiwan has very few local cases.
It’s COVID numbers are a measure of its need to participate in the international economy as is Singapore’s as is ours.
I’ll make another prediction!!
Our COVID case numbers will follow those in the catchment area from which our tourists come.
As theirs plateau and fall, ours will too.
The UK is on its way down, so by my logic, ours should soon be on its way down.
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“Food for thought.”
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UK vs Barbados
So long as we have the numbers of tourists that we do, our COVID cases will be determined to a large extent by the country of origin of most of the tourists because most of our testing will be done on that population as a requirement for them to travel.
Even if the UK gets more floods and their cases rise again, our local population may not be significantly affected because by and large it is few of us who come into contact with the tourists but even more importantly, the spread will be airborne so it will be small compared to if we were to have floods and the virus got into our water.
All of what I am saying is simple common sense.
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And old “Simon & Garfunkel fan.” Ain’t you???
However, I don’t intend to steer this ship off course..I’m not trying to piss Blogie off.
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The COVID-19 cases are more widespread than is commonly realized.
That means that the death rates are LOWER.
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John; You’re slowly getting to see that the epidemic is truly ONE global phenomenon. Omicron’s arrival, spiking of the UK epidemic and elimination of the Delta variant (wherever it was found) is obvious from the charts. Each of the variants have characteristic properties and appear to be sequenced in an almost teleological preordained manner to perform an intricate dance that depends on interactions between man and the variants.
It is not by chance.
But, look carefully at all the charts you have shown on BU. I think you will eventually come around to the ultimate truism and realisation that water or floods have very little to do with Covid’s global spread. It is mankind’s movements and interactions and behaviours that are encrypted in the virus and in man’s DNA.
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…. and John;
I suspect that your original gut feeling was right that the ultimate number of Omicron cases will be significantly lower than predicted by the UWI group. But I suspect they also knew that all the while.
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The more I see of the curves worldwide the surer I become that water is where it will be defeated.
Individual countries need to solve/mitigate their particular issues on their own.
When the weather cycles back the virus will disappear, regardless of variant because it will have lost the means to spread to hosts …… just like the Spanish Flu did after the 6 year deluge!!
Water is the key!!
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Too early to call?
“ohn; You’re slowly getting to see that the epidemic is truly ONE global phenomenon. Omicron’s arrival, spiking of the UK epidemic and elimination of the Delta variant (wherever it was found) is obvious from the charts. Each of the variants have characteristic properties and appear to be sequenced in an almost teleological preordained manner to perform an intricate dance that depends on interactions between man and the variants.”
Xxxx
Debunking the idea viruses evolve to become less deadly over time
Unfortunately, that means it’s nearly impossible to predict the future of the pandemic.
This sentiment is echoed by other infectious disease experts in the field.
“The end game is really bringing down the virus to low levels where we just live with it. And what omicron will do is bring the virus down to low levels in the community because it’s causing so much immunity,” say Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases doctor and Professor of Medicine at UCSF. “It’ll bring it down to a controllable phase, which we call endemicity. So after this surge, we should be in the end game of the pandemic and into endemic.”
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We can and must eradicate it in the water.
Thereafter its prevalence will be limited to what airborne transmission can support which is the low level of which you speak.
Suspect it will then disappear.
Might even get rid of the common cold and flu in the process.
They have never been attacked in the water.
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@John
Can you repeat it 100,000 more times?
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RE @John
Can you repeat it 100,000 more times?
WHY SHOULD HE NOT REPEAT HIS HYPOTHESIS IF HE IS CONVINED AND CONVICTED THAT HE IS CORRECT?
IS HE NOT JOINING IN THE DISCUSSION, NEVER KNOWING HOW EXPRESSING HIS VIEW MAY MAKE A DIFFERENCE?.
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You will not derail this blog as is your objective. Make a point or move on.
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JohnJanuary 16, 2022 4:49 AM
We can and must eradicate it in the water.
Thereafter its prevalence will be limited to what airborne transmission can support which is the low level of which you speak.
Suspect it will then disappear.
Might even get rid of the common cold and flu in the process.
They have never been attacked in the water.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That’s probably what happened with the Spanish Flu.
The weather changed and it no longer got into the water and was able to spread widely.
Airborne transmission was left and cases dwindled.
In two shakes it was gone and the people back then were none the wiser.
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Australia is sticking to their way of doing things.
https://cnn.it/3A44Y5w
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Australia is going to become the laughing stock of the Tennis World.
They should have moved the tournament to WA where there is not much COVID.
People should soon start realising how crazy the Government of Australia is.
Novax is going to be a hero.
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Testing! Testing! re. Barbados vaccinations data percentages.
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It worked! Will post some explanatory comments later today
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😀Now, I will have to look at your graphs in the same way that I look at 🐇/🐰’s. At least you did not put ‘Flood’ as a part of the graph😀
More seriously, two questions..
How do you explain the behavior of two of the graphs between 12/21 and 1/22. Why does the curve for the partially vaccinated remain relatively flat?
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TheOGazertsJanuary 16, 2022 9:52 AM
😀Now, I will have to look at your graphs in the same way that I look at 🐇/🐰’s. At least you did not put ‘Flood’ as a part of the graph😀
More seriously, two questions..
How do you explain the behavior of two of the graphs between 12/21 and 1/22. Why does the curve for the partially vaccinated remain relatively flat?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Cuh dear Theo
Give the man a chance to expound on his graphs.
He is caught between a rock and a hard place!!
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If you add the three graphs together you will get a flat line with a fall off at the end.
It doesn’t match the sharp increase in the blue line at the top of the blog which I would assume has to do with isolations.
So, in an attempt to give Lyall a way out I would suggest that the graph just published is only for the local population and the one at the top is for both locals and tourists.
The rise is due as in the case of Singapore and Taiwan due to the opening of the border.
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Of course, I could be wrong.
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TheOGazerts / John / Critical Analyser;
I have to attend a Zoom meeting within minutes so I will not be able to give explanations for the next 3 hours or so. But the posting of the graph is just a trial run for using the Imgur app to post graphics. The data is real authentic data from the GIS website. The data actually doesn’t make a lot of sense to me either. Lots of questions can be posed.
eg: Why do the numbers from the population of presumably sick persons in Barbados always have significantly fewer persons who have been partially vaccinated as compared with the other categories? It might be because it reflects the parent barbados population which would then have 5% or so persons that are partially vaccinated? But does that make sense?
Why
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“Australia is sticking to their way of doing things.”
@David, that’s the beauty of rubber meeting road … not always the gorgeous look to please all but pretty enough to be legal and acceptable by reasonable people.
The initial problem with this affair was why did the Aussies issue a waiver in the first place … that created this entire mess.
The man is the only player apparently not vaxxed at the Open. That the ATP or an arm of the Morrison govt would see fit to give him an option to visit and play and then have the immigration officials and ultimately the Immigration Minister renege on that was rather ridiculous!
Anyhow my take aways for my lil Bdos are:
Look how fast a court proceeding can be expedited when NECESSARY and of public interest, far less seriously impacting citizens. 🤦🏾♂️
Note how legal issues are often decided in very NARROW terms … as reflected in the Chief Judges comment that:
“These grounds focus on whether the decision was for different reasons irrational or legally unreasonable. It is no part of the function of the court to decide upon the merits or wisdom of the decision.”
And on the very funny side (funny how people does say amazing things when it suits them) this remark from a Serb living in Australia:
“I really was surprised that a person such as a minister could overturn a judicial system.” …. Whaatttttt!
Why de badword … he from SERBIA in trute … home of a deep history of communism and authoritarian rule … so he playing ignorant of the power of a minister – even in a democracy ! 🙄🤦🏾♂️
Ah well. We Bajans know that real, real good tho!
@LyallS, thanks for the continued counter point excellence to @John’s abuse of stats … no one frets the man’s technical nous but that he uses it so egregiously to obfuscate is rather distressing!
Lata
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… and it looks like it is better to be partially vaccinated than fully vaccinated … by far.
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Do we have date so that time horizons can be established regarding the waning of the vaccine?
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@John
Novax is going to be a hero
+++++++
Freudian slip? I thought the name is Novak
As someone wrote “ Novak, Novax, Novisa”
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Here’s another explanation for the flip flop.
All of the visitors are vaccinated … assumption!!
So it means that when they get tested positive here and go into isolation (assuming they did/do) then since the preponderance of the positives are vaccinated visitors and the unvaccinated are locals and in the minority then the percentage of vaccinated in isolation rises and percentage unvaccinated falls.
We can’t have that happening so the visitor positives are taken out of the vaccinated numbers.
The base data set is flawed.
It purports to deal with one population when in fact there are two.
Crap in crap out!!
GIGO
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Oh oh, getting elevated beyond the run of the mill players.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/australian-decision-political-and-humiliating/vi-AASPDo9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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Here is a trick question to see how sharp you all are.
Tonga experienced flooding as a result of the recent Tsunami.
Will Tonga have a surge in COVID cases and if not why not?
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Here’s Tonga
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A total of 412 positive COVID-19 cases were identified by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory from the 1 988 tests carried out on Saturday, January 15.
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/16/412-new-covid-cases-january-15/
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Hants
Here’s how to tell how many of the 442 cases are imported and how many are local.
Use Lyall’s data.
The partially vaccinated (~5%) should NOT be better off than the totally vaccinated (~30%).
That is in complete disagreement with all the data the scientists publish.
The totally vaccinated should be less than ~5%, lets say it should be ~3%.
But it is ~10X out at ~30%.
The only way that can happen is if the partially vaccinated are entirely from the local population and the totally vaccinated are from both, but predominately the imported population.
No way a tourist is going to come partially vaccinated.
Which means for every 1 local there are perhaps 10 X imported in the population.
So the 442 cases are made up of 40-44 LOCAL positives and 400-404 IMPORTED positives.
Therefore the number of local cases has been in double digits since the beginning of Lyall’s data, that is to say from 8 December 2021!!
QED
PS … I was on the pessimistic side
PPS … which is where an Engineer is supposed to be!!
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Here is an interpretation of Lyall’s data.
The vaccinated who are in isolation are predominately imported … tourists.
As Christmas approaches there is a surge in vaccinated arrivals and the 30% number surges to 65%.
The local population in the unvaccinated falls correspondingly.
Most of this segment will be local so you see the dip but there will also be a significant part that is imported.
People who have had COVID already get their medical exemptions.
The only component which does not fluctuate is the partially vaccinated which is practically all local with few if any imported members.
QED
Thanks Lyall, you have confirmed my hypothesis regarding the population in isolation and tested, it is really two separate populations.
Grasshopper
You can learn from this exposition in atleast two ways.
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Vincent CodringtonJanuary 15, 2022 11:15 AM
@ David Bu
Are the statisticians fighting the numbers OR massaging them? They seem to be trying to express blood from stones. One has to start with a model of Epidemiology. Numbers do not speak for themselves.
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Vincent’s brilliant point.
Numbers do not speak for themselves!!
I would add ….
They need to be fitted to a model that speaks for itself.
That’s why all the scientists are getting it wrong.
They are too dazzled/blinded by the science.
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Pretty apt!!
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Dr Campbell making points explaining why Omicron will be THAT variant that will transform COVID-19 from a pandemic to an endemic
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I like this guy but he is too willing to toe the line.
I’ve tried to set him straight regarding water but so far nothing.
Made some good points about how to administer the vaccination, top stuff.
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Source: Nation
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The Nation gives the number of eligible voters who will be denied the opportunity to vote as more than 4,000.
The BLP trounced the DLP in the 2018 elections with the margin of victory being well over 500 in most constituencies, but in 2013 and earlier a difference of 100 votes could separate the winner or the loser.
As this pandemic may lead to a smaller voter turnout and as the performance of the BLP with a 30-0 has not been impressive, the removal of 4,000 votes from the election may change the outcome of our elections. It is possible that Mia tilted the scale in her favor.
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Covid-19 is complicated.
We see that the Ministry of Health has introduced a new variable into ‘their model’ … breakthrough infections.
This alone would not explain the strange behavior of the graphs during the period 12/21/2021 to 1/5/2022, but may be a part of the explanation… I suspect that a model that uses only tourist arrivals is woefully inadequate
To the phrase “Numbers do not speak for themselves”, I would add “We should be wary of those who speak for the numbers”.
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