BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers

Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022.  I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus.  Total isolations are increasing gradually but Official Isolations are going down slowly and the Reproductive rates are actually decreasing at this stage.  Deaths are still relatively low.  The charts seem to be indicating that we might yet escape the dire UWI model predictions.  So far, so good.

Lyall Small

189 comments

  • Just had a brilliant idea..

    Quite often, we heard that some BLP MP’s we’re opposed to Mia. What if in her devious calculations, this would also help her to cull the herd of these treacherous characters. Better to face impending doom in late 2022 with a loyal cohort than a perfidious bunch. The woman is brilliant.

    Like

  • Better to lose 3 or 4 in January than to wrestle with then for a year and a half.

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  • That is like killing four birds with one stone
    the opposition parties,
    the mutinous bunch and
    ensuring she has a possible eight more years.

    My assumption is that the mutinous bunch are not in BLP strongholds.

    Like

  • Have a great day Barbados
    Have a great day ❤ Mia ❤

    Like

  • TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:13 AM

    The Nation gives the number of eligible voters who will be denied the opportunity to vote as more than 4,000.

    The BLP trounced the DLP in the 2018 elections with the margin of victory being well over 500 in most constituencies, but in 2013 and earlier a difference of 100 votes could separate the winner or the loser.

    As this pandemic may lead to a smaller voter turnout and as the performance of the BLP with a 30-0 has not been impressive, the removal of 4,000 votes from the election may change the outcome of our elections. It is possible that Mia tilted the scale in her favor.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Unless they are suffering from “Long COVID” I suspect that most of the 4,000 may be visitors.

    To get to 4,000 at 50 cases per day in the local population would take two to three months.

    Still, it does seem strange that there would be thousands of tourists who would be in isolation and keep quiet.

    Maybe they are the high end visitors who spend 6 months out of the year here to escape the weather in their countries.

    Maybe they can vote … like Donville’s good buddy the dentist who the court allowed to vote just before the 2018 elections.

    Like

  • This 4,000 isolations number seems like a large number for even the local population far less the tourist population.

    Anyone on here knows of person or persons in isolation?

    It was way back in November that the Safe Zone concept was raised.

    https://barbadosunderground.net/2021/11/13/bu-covid-dash-safe-zones-long-talk/

    This was the way we could get the arrivals back and get on with living.

    But weather was worsening and cases in the UK were rising back then.

    Naturally peeps would want to get to a tropical paradise.

    Where is this population of 4,000 peeps to be found in Barbados?

    Commonwealth citizens can vote, right?

    Like

  • What is the cumulative effect of isolating infected persons for 15 days with infected # being 60?

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  • Isn’t it 5 days these days?

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  • TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:24 AM

    To the phrase “Numbers do not speak for themselves”, I would add “We should be wary of those who speak for the numbers”.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    A word to the wise Grasshopper

    A picture/Graph is worth a thousand words.

    That’s been a standard saying for more than a century because it’s true.

    Like

  • 5 days as far as the blogmaster is aware is the number used to determine incubation period before testing for the virus.

    Like

  • GP EX SCHOLAR REPORTING FROM MY GROUND

    RE heOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 8:15 AM

    Just had a brilliant idea..

    Quite often, we heard that some BLP MP’s we’re opposed to Mia. What if in her devious calculations, this would also help her to cull the herd of these treacherous characters. Better to face impending doom in late 2022 with a loyal cohort than a perfidious bunch. The woman is brilliant.

    ANTIOCHUS EPIPHANES IV WAS CONSIDERED TO BE BRILLIANT ALSO , AND SO TOO THE MAIN ONE WHO HE PREFIGURED, AND THE MANY LIKE HIM THAT HE FIGURED.
    WHAT WAS ANTIOCHUS’S END LIKE?
    WHAT WAS THE END OF THE MANY LIKE HIM?
    WHAT WILL BE THE END OF THE MANY LIKE HIM ON THE WORLD SCENE TODAY?

    READ UP ON ANTIOCHUS EPIPHANES IV

    Like

  • GP, one time BU "resident doctor"

    TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:24 AM
    Covid-19 is complicated.
    ACTUALLY IT IS NOT
    BUT IT HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY MORONIC POLITICIANS MEDLING IN MEDICINE AND MISHANDLING ITS MANAGEMENT
    IT HAS BEEN COMPLICATED ALSO BY A DIABOLICAL DOCTOR AND OTHERS OF HIS ILK WHO DENIDED THE TRUTH AND THE DERIDED EXELENT ADVICE BY DILIGENT DOCTORS, AND COMMANDERED THE POPULAR PRESS TO DO SO

    NOTHING AT ALL COMPLICATED TO THOSE DOCTORS WHO APPLIED COMMON SENSE, PROPER MEDICINE AND PRESCRIBED INVERMECTIN AND HYDROXYCHLOROUINONE WITH GREAT SUCESS.

    IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, JESUS PREDICTED IN THE OLIVET DISCOURSE IN MATHEW 24:4-8 THAT SUCH A PANDEMIC WOULD OCCUR……AND SO IT HAS.

    NOTHING AT ALL COMPLICATED ABOUT COVID
    THE ABOVE IS SOUND DOCTRINE THAT CAN NOT BE REFUTED.

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  • Thinking ahead.

    Actually 7 days currently.

    But if you want to look at the cumulative effect you need to subtract the cases that resolve and checkout too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/ministers-considering-cutting-covid-isolation-to-five-days-says-boris-johnson

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  • Good without saying. The substantive point is that given mandatory isolation/quarantine period hundreds/thousands mentioned may not be far fetched.

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  • 5600 in isolation.

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  • Looks like the falling cases in the UK are being reflected here!!

    See how easy it is when you have a picture in your mind of how it works?

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  • @ David,

    I am guessing that between 3 and 4 thousand will not be allowed to vote.

    The government does not have to guess. They have all the information to state how many voters will not be allowed to vote because of a positive Covid test.

    But who cares unless someone loses by 50 votes.

    There could be court challenges.

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  • DavidJanuary 17, 2022 11:38 AM

    Good without saying. The substantive point is that given mandatory isolation/quarantine period hundreds/thousands mentioned may not be far fetched.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    If 60 produce hundreds/thousands then 400+ must produce thousands/tens of thousands.

    So where is the GOB hiding them?

    The 5,600 in isolation have to be principally imported cases.

    QED

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  • @Hants

    The public health directive states all persons in isolation must stay put. The CMO would have to issue a chat to his order. Unless you are suggesting the PM has control of that office too.

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  • Are the 5,600 all commonwealth citziens who can vote?

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  • How many of the 5,600 in isolation are imported cases and can they vote?

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  • What we know is that all of them drank the water and took a bath.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David,

    As long as the BLP wins by a landslide all will be well in the Republic of Bim.

    Voters rights and responsibilities ain’t that important to some.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @Mr.Hants, and what possible grounds exactly would you see that “There could be court challenges.”

    We had a by-election up north by you (Bajan north in St. Peter) decided by one vote but to your point I really do not know if we will see 50 votes tally differences on Wednesday night … BUT in the event there are some of those are you suggesting that like in that by-election we will get a lot of do-overs!

    Wouldn’t hold my breath on that!

    Like

  • The Omicron surge hasn’t peaked nationwide, and ‘the next few weeks will be tough,’ US surgeon general says

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/17/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

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  • DavidJanuary 17, 2022 6:29 PM

    What we know is that all of them drank the water and took a bath.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I’ve been doing that all the time because I know with a high level of confidence that my distribution area is not served by the desal plant.

    For the moment there is very little COVID spread in Barbados if imported cases are excluded because no floods to upset the equilibrium.

    Were it not for the imported cases we would soon be COVID free because no water sources are compromised … no floods!!

    It’s real simple!!

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  • Ohmigod cannot spread on its own!!

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  • It would have been helpful to our democracy, if ALL opposition parties had been persistent and strident in encouraging Bajan citizens and residents to take the vaccine. If they had done so over the last 11 months since vaccines became available in Barbados maybe we would not now have approximately 4,000 adults in isolation. I wonder how many of this 4,000 have refused to be vaccinated for political reasons???

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  • @TheOGazerts January 17, 2022 8:15 AM

    “devious calculations
    cull the herd
    treacherous characters
    impending doom
    perfidious bunch”

    The normally gentle Theo is being very harsh today.

    Like

  • For the moment the spread in the UK is dying down and our imported cases are falling.

    If there is a flood up that side, cases in the UK will rise once more and we will see the same thing happen here.

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 7:12 PM

    It would have been helpful to our democracy, if ALL opposition parties had been persistent and strident in encouraging Bajan citizens and residents to take the vaccine. If they had done so over the last 11 months since vaccines became available in Barbados maybe we would not now have approximately 4,000 adults in isolation. I wonder how many of this 4,000 have refused to be vaccinated for political reasons???

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The UK is one the most vaccinated countries in the world and it has something like 3-4 million unresolved cases.

    It is clear that vaccination does not help the spread there and elsewhwere.

    So long as we are dependent on the UK for our visitors, we will have people in isolation, most of them imported … who may or may not be able to vote.

    My bet is all will vote!!!

    After al, they are commonwealth citizens.

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  • Another view

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  • @lyallsmall January 16, 2022 10:55 AM “eg: Why do the numbers from the population of presumably sick persons in Barbados always have significantly fewer persons who have been partially vaccinated as compared with the other categories?”

    I’ve noticed this too, but honestly don’t know the answer.

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  • @John “My bet is all will vote!!! After al, they are commonwealth citizens.”

    They can only vote if they are Commonwealth citizens + have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more

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  • Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

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  • And is it ok to go to a polling place if I haven’t bathed for a few months?

    Should I wait for a ruling from the Electoral and Boundaries Commission?

    The Ministry of Health

    The PM

    The courts

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:59 PM

    Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I could have sworn you told everyone the complete opposite.

    Why have you suddenly started with this confabulation?

    Is the family concerned?

    https://www.verywellhealth.com/responding-to-confabulation-in-dementia-97969

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 9:02 PM

    And is it ok to go to a polling place if I haven’t bathed for a few months?

    Should I wait for a ruling from the Electoral and Boundaries Commission?

    The Ministry of Health

    The PM

    The courts

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Did Gearbox vote?

    What about all the street characters we see/saw around Bridgetown?

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:56 PM

    @John “My bet is all will vote!!! After al, they are commonwealth citizens.”

    They can only vote if they are Commonwealth citizens + have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    How many of those in isolation have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more and are Commonwealth citizens?

    There are lots of expats, commonwealth citizens who routinely stay in Barbados 6 months or more to qualify in their original jurisdiction for tax exempt status in their countries of origin!!

    If the qualification for residence abroad in their countries of origin is living outside for 6 months or more, what’s the qualification for continuous living in Barbados?

    Would for example a Welcome Stamp qualify a person to vote?

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:59 PM

    Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Ask the BWA if they are still getting turbidity in the water from Bowmanston.

    Since the number of local COVID cases are minimal and mostly imported you may not have to worry about the pumping station at Sweet Bottom but you should keep an eye until sewers are installed.

    Take a walk through the district and ask if anyone has had COVID recently.

    As a Ground Keeper you would know if the ground has dried out.

    Just use your intelligence and powers of observation.

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:13 PM

    @lyallsmall January 16, 2022 10:55 AM “eg: Why do the numbers from the population of presumably sick persons in Barbados always have significantly fewer persons who have been partially vaccinated as compared with the other categories?”

    I’ve noticed this too, but honestly don’t know the answer.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I’ll explain it simply for you and Lyall.

    A picture is worth 1000 words.

    In this case, the graph is absolutely brilliant.

    Look carefully at the y axis.

    It isn’t numbers of cases but percentages.

    So, if there are let’s say 100 persons in isolation, about 5 will be partially vaccinated.

    No visitor is going to travel without being fully vaccinated unless they are like my boy Novax who went all the way to Australia to share his unmatched talents with the world.

    So the partially vaccinated are all local.

    That tells you that the vaccinated locals who are in isolation must be even fewer as all the scientific data I’ve seen seems to indicate that it is better to be fully vaccinated than partially vaccinated.

    Let’s say they are 7 locals in the 100 in isolation.

    We know that from a while back when not much travel was taking place that roughly 60% of locals in isolation were unvaccinated, the rest being vaccinated or partially vaccinated.

    So if 7 locals can be identified as being vaccinated or partially vaccinated then this is roughly 40% of the locals in isolation.

    So you are looking at well under 20 locals of the 100 in isolation.

    That means that there are over 80 imported cases in every 100 people in isolation.

    So the local spread of the virus must be pretty small.

    Our cases are principally imported, like Bali, another tourist destination in the world but one which is careful to keep the two populations separate.

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  • It is probably ok to bathe in your district now the ground has dried out but DO NOT run around hugging tourists.

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  • Lyall has left off the % label on the y axis but if you add the graphs you will always get 100!!

    I admit it tricked me at first too.

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  • Hopefully this helps.

    Up to my usual scholarly contributions?

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  • John;
    It was, as I clearly stated, a TRIAL post to see if I could post images using Imgur. The chart was incomplete re. showing the title of an explicit percentage axis, but a 2 times Barbados Scholar like yourself should have had no difficulty in at least recognizing that the left vertical axis could only represent percentages. The title of the graph “percentages of patients in isolation facilities by vaccination status” says explicitly that the data is explessed in percentages.

    I’ll post the updated Chart tomorrow or later, Deo Volenti.

    But there might be something very wrong with the data or the rational expectations one might have for such data.

    If it is agreed that it would be expected that the ordering of the 3 categories of the isolated would be expected to be:
    1 The unvaccinated – highest percentages in isolation
    2 The partially vaccinated – medium percentages in isolation. ,/B> I would suggest that this category might be expected to be 1st doses only.
    3 The fully vaccinated – lowest percentages in isolation

    The actual results turn such expectations on their heads. Partially vaccinated, in every case, significantly takes the lowest percentages, with the others not even coming close. Why should partially vaccinated people always show very low percentages in the low single digits? If the data reflects reality it would suggest that the best vaccination option would be to take the first dose only and that surely doesn’t make sense.

    What explains the data that shows fully vaccinated people being highly competitive with Unvaccinated people for much of the graph?

    Why are the unvaccinated people not always the most likely to be isolated?

    Is there some hint of immunity suppression suggested in the data?

    and, what happened between 22nd December and 5th January that switched around the contributions of the fully vaccinated and unvaccinated categories?

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  • John;
    I didn’t see your 1:07 a.m. post until just now when I got back to the computer.

    Nice post!

    Actually brilliant, if your underlying hypothesis is true. But I would withhold part of that comment pending an official verification of your contention that figures for the tourists passing through Barbados constitute the majority of our daily positive tests. If they do, it would adequately explain much of the puzzling features of the graph.

    It might actually be some sort of malpractice, if test data from transients were somehow allowed to taint our Covid-19 statistics especially as the resultant high figures for the resulting statistics would be actually totally against the best interests of the Island.

    So I await an official explanation, especially since it would appear that a recent audit was actually done of the data.

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  • How many tourist tested positive for Covid in Barbados over the last 10 days ?

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  • Hants;
    Also, How many tourists in Barbados tested positive for Covid-19 out of the totals reported for the last 10 days?
    and How many were or are in official Isolation?

    Liked by 1 person

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @LyallS … that’s why politics is so frustrating, interesting and ruthlessly forged to suit a desired agenda.

    When you say “It might actually be some sort of malpractice, if test data from transients were somehow allowed to taint our Covid-19 statistics …” … don’t you perceive that it would be scandalous for the BLP political operatives to provide newly refreshed tourist covid metrics from any “recent audit […] actually done of the data.”

    Following your debate with @John Fellow is interesting as I am confounded WHY tourist data was intermingled with the covid metrics … there can only be one basic reason:

    The govt does NOT want the perception widely held that travel into Bim is a key source of our covid!

    However, you and your colleague’s interrogation of this issue has now reached the stage that you or him can pull together from posts and graphs a crisp, scholarly piece for proper public exposure… sans the water hypothesis (still too much missing there).

    Good base analysis @John Fellow re how the numbers don’t stack up … it’s amazing what data can show. And when it’s NOT premised on the big lie it actually is always quite intriguing!

    Lata

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  • We may get an idea of breakout of the numbers in isolation coming out of the court case to challenge tomorrow’s election date. The number in isolation is at heart of the challenge.

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  • @ de pedantic Dribbler who wrote ” The govt does NOT want the perception widely held that travel into Bim is a key source of our covid ”

    That was a late cut between 3rd slip and point along the ground for 4. not a man move. lol

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  • His 1:07 a.m. contribution was quite sound.

    However, I am withholding comments until we have the true percentage of red green and yellow balls.

    Also, can the behavior between llate December and January be explained tthrough tourist arrivals in that period.

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  • So the un-vaccinated make the bulk of bajans infected
    except for when the total dropped to less than 100

    sounds like new world order biowarfare to me
    remember the arawak indian

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  • Lyall

    and, what happened between 22nd December and 5th January that switched around the contributions of the fully vaccinated and unvaccinated categories?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Here is my explanation for what it’s worth.

    Between 22nd December and 5th January, Barbados was swamped with arrivals for Christmas and new years from countries with conditions causing citizens to flee to warmer climes.

    So the flip flop occurs because of the surge in arrivals.

    The unvaccinated just got pushed down and the vaccinated got pushed up.

    That matches my basic assumption re partially vaccinated.

    We are were over the flood induced surge and into double digit cases so the GOB decided to gamble and open the borders.

    Once we don’t get any more floods the gamble will work out fine because the two populations are mostly separate.

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  • lyallsmallJanuary 18, 2022 10:09 AM

    John;
    It was, as I clearly stated, a TRIAL post to see if I could post images using Imgur. The chart was incomplete re. showing the title of an explicit percentage axis, but a 2 times Barbados Scholar like yourself should have had no difficulty in at least recognizing that the left vertical axis could only represent percentages. The title of the graph “percentages of patients in isolation facilities by vaccination status” says explicitly that the data is explessed in percentages.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It did trick me initially as the comment I made initially will show so just being honest.

    Also, I know it will pull Grasshopper’s chain!!

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  • Why are the partially vaccinated represented less in the numbers?

    Because only a few people are partially vaccinated.

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  • I suspect that it may just be a data error for the vaccinated and unvaccinated for the December 22 to Jan 5. Someone started partying early and left the janitor to enter the data. He switched the two.

    More seriously, this reasoning is based on the fact that the high percentage for the vaccinated during this period is so mar to that of unvaccinated preceding December 22. Similarly the low unvaccinated is similar to the vaccinated of the preceding period.

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  • @🐇/🐰
    You have been looking very good so far. At some stage you will make a desperate break for the waterhole.

    Liked by 1 person

  • As someone correctly stated, the single dose is mainly those getting the first shot. The relatively flat graph and low percentage show that there is no rush to be vaccinated.

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  • Visitors are either going to be fully vaccinated or unvaccinated but have survived COVID and reckon vaccination is unnecessary.

    They know if they are vaccinated if they catch it it won’t kill them and if they stay in the UK they will catch it and experience horrible weather.

    Better to risk overseas travel and get some sunshine.

    The half ways are all locals.

    Too much of a risk for a visitor.

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  • Unvaccinated persons are not allowed to board the plane from country of origin.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Covid – no problem!

    We have got to learn to live or die with it.

    People die from hunger too.

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  • Two good ideas and
    John picked up a speed wobble…
    Next, he will be off the road and down the hole..
    Watching an waiting

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  • Donna you said above:
    Question: “Why are the partially vaccinated represented less in the numbers?
    Answer; ”Because only a few people are partially vaccinated.”

    Donna, I would argue: Perhaps, but not necessarily so!
    The regular reported daily Covid-19 data indicates that there are consistently more persons who are partially vaccinated than those who are fully vaccinated. People take a first vac and join the ranks of the partially vaccinated and then take 5 months or more before they can get into the fully vaccinated category or decide not to take a second vac at all. Therefore if you take a random sample of the population, I would expect that Fully vaccinated would probably follow Partially Vaccinated and then Unvaccinated brings up the rear.

    I would like to suggest that the data given in my chart is of a specific population. That population is those people who are sick and are in Official Isolation Centres. At this stage of the epidemic, where the vaccinations have been applied for several months, there should not be a preponderance of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated and a consistent low level of partially vaccinated persons in official isolation as the vaccines which are presumably doing their work adequately, should reflect those facts in the data (Most should be Unvaccinated followed by Partially vaccinated and there should be relatively few fully vaccinated people ). If the partially vaccinated category is in a consistent minority in the 3 categories sampled it might mean that that cohort is outperforming the other categories and there is little positive value in getting fully vaccinated or that more than one shot is actually reducing the effectiveness of the suite of vaccines.

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  • Oops! made a mistake in the html code above. The second paragraph should not be in bold.

    Hants; BIG PROBLEM ? 652 cases ?
    Not necessarily. Lets see what happens over the next few days. If it continues going up than we have a big problem.

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  • @ lyallsmall,

    Barbados has limited resources.

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  • I didn’t look, but I have been told that big vocal crowds were at tonight’s meetings

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  • HantsJanuary 18, 2022 9:25 PM

    BIG PROBLEM ? 652 cases ?

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/18/652-new-covid-cases-monday/

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    If we knew the numbers of imported cases we would not be guessing.

    Maybe there was a surge of peeps from the UK?

    We could tell that from Lyall’s graph.

    If a flip flop is in the process of happening again chances are there was a surge of visitor arrivals.

    But hiding the numbers creates unnecessary fear in the local population.

    Me, I’m proceeding as though it is that we are getting more visitor arrivals.

    If I lived in Canada, parts of the USA, Europe or the UK I would be fleeing to warmer climes.

    Staying there makes it pretty certain to get COVID … its in the water and all the experts are saying how contagious ohmigod is and can’t fix the problem.

    But for the moment, here in Barbados, no floods so a good chance no COVID and numbers in double digits.

    If I lived in those areas and friends returned from a visit to the Caribbean having not caught COVID while almost everyone around me who stayed did and froze their asses off, word of mouth would spread that the Caribbean is the place to go to escape both the COVID and the COLD.

    So I could argue for a surge of visitors to Barbados from less fortunate places in the world.

    Word of mouth and no expert in the world would be able to explain it.

    The choice for those in colder climes with rampant COVID is stay put and get COVID and also freeze or go to the Caribbean and have a good chance of escaping COVID and get some warmth in the old bones and sun on the backside.

    I would expect a flood of visitors based on that logic which the dimmest of wits in colder climes could figure out.

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  • CA could be making a bomb!!

    Suspect we will be seeing a surge in air travel to the Caribbean.

    The visitors who came here in December and early January have returned and are lording it over their more unfortunate friends who stayed put over Christmas, froze their asses off and caught COVID!!

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  • Maybe not a big problem but a huge opportunity!!

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  • Hants

    How many people you know in Canada near you who caught COVID over Christmas and New Year?

    The only people I know of here are some of the younger folks who went partying but seem to be fine now.

    Was the season up your side as miserable as I am making it out to be with the Cold and the COVID?

    Like

  • DavidJanuary 18, 2022 8:56 PM

    Unvaccinated persons are not allowed to board the plane from country of origin.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Simply not true!!

    Do your due diligence.

    This is sloppy work.

    https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/barbados/entry-requirements

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  • Ok, we have hundreds of vacation travelers to Barbados prepared to write off 5 days?

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  • Percentage of patients in isolation
    shows a suspect strange switch between vaccinated vs unvaccinated circa 24/12/21 – 10/1/22

    Daily Covid Cases graph
    show this period is when the cases sunk to it’s lowest cica 50-60 and massively started rising again to 500

    therefore Barbados was deliberately infected in black ops biowarfare like the Arawak Indian

    Liked by 1 person

  • The Brits are already here in numbers because of cricket.

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  • … well there you go. Another reason for increase in visitors!!

    Meanwhile I notice no one has predicted the outcome of Tong and COVID.

    Fact is Tonga has had 1 single case of COVID so I would expect unless it is introduced through the aid efforts there should be no surge after the tsunami induced floods.

    Here is one possible method of its introduction.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/water-crisis-looms-for-tsunami-hit-tonga-new-zealand-help-on-the-way/ar-AASUH6u?ocid=msedgntp

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  • Disambiguation Clarification

    Black Ops = White Ops in disguise

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  • COVID boosters do not provide protection against Omicron, study finds – Fortune

    https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/

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  • 677 new cases.

    Like

  • Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.

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  • lyallsmallJanuary 19, 2022 11:54 PM

    Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Visitors returning home and getting their tests 2 days in advance.

    Protocol is the positives isolate and are tested again the following day.

    Local positives should be <100!!

    https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/barbados/entry-requirements

    Testing positive for / close contact with COVID-19 in Barbados
    If you test positive for COVID-19 at any point during your stay in Barbados you will be required to self-isolate. You will first be assessed by a member of staff from the government isolation facilities for 24 hours. You may be transferred to the Government’s quarantine facility, Harrison’s Point, for further assessment and treatment. You can stay there for no cost until you have recovered. Conditions at the government quarantine facilities are generally basic and not necessarily equivalent to a tourist hotel with the associated services.

    Alternatively, you may be eligible for the Government’s home isolation programme and you have the option of requesting to self-isolate at your hotel, apartment or villa, or government approved isolation property under strict stipulations that must be signed and adhered to. This will be at your own expense. You will need to remain at your designated accommodation until the Barbadian authorities are satisfied that you have recovered. This may mean a mandatory stay of several weeks in Barbados. Upon recovery, tourists can continue their holiday or return home. The option to self-isolate in an approved hotel, villa or property is not a right – the decision will be made by healthcare professionals. See the Barbados Travel Protocols for full details of isolation options, facilities and requirements.

    If you are deemed to have been in close contact with a positive COVID-19 case, you will be required to quarantine at approved facilities. See Barbados Travel Protocols for full details.

    You can find full and definitive details of the protocols at Visit Barbados website and are advised to read and understand the requirements carefully before departure.

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  • lyallsmallJanuary 19, 2022 11:54 PM

    Hants; Figures look bad but today’s 7-day Reproductive no. for Omicron is 1.08, not far from from 1.00 and Official isolations have flattened out, even though total isolations are still climbing. The UWI 3,500 daily cases worst case situation still seems to be unlikely. We need to see if things take a turn for the worse by next week as a result of possible enhanced spread due to the Election meetings.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Obviously can’t be the ohmigod variant which is reputedly extremely contagious.

    Ohmigod does not seem to spread in Barbados, or Western Australia, or Taiwan etc.

    Scientists are FOS!!

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  • As predicted the Barbados indicator of cases/million is trending to the UK number as UK sources the bulk of its visitors.

    Oscillations in Barbados indicator as predicted.

    A few days ago the convergence looked like this.

    Barring floods in UK and/or Barbados, numbers should trend together.

    Oscillations in Barbados numbers seem at the moment to be related to numbers of tests on returning visitors.

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  • Zooming in on the picture, here’s what it looks like.

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