BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic

Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January.  We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January.  This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s.  The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low levels while Home isolations rose precipitately. If these dynamics are maintained there will be no need to panic and fear that the dread worse case prediction of 3,500 peak cases per day is heading our way.  The data also indicates that the Covid-19 team and the Barbados populace in general are continuing to do a good job – Source: Lyall Small

151 thoughts on “BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic

  1. Between Midday and 6:00pm there are flights to and from BGI to London, New York, Miami and Toronto!!

    Between 6:00pm and Midnight dum got more to and from Frankfurt and 1 to Manchester.

    I could be double counting but you look and see for yourself on this site.


    The point is there are nuff nuff international flights and nuf nuff visitor arrivals and departures every day.

    Frankfurt, England Miami, New York Toronto.

    Dat don even count the flights to and from Trinidad, Guyana, Dominica etc etc etc!!

    Dey even got one to Aquadilla wherever dat is.

    Anybody ever went dere?

  2. HANTS


  4. DonnaJanuary 31, 2022 11:27 AM


    I learnt about weighted average long long ago. Passed that exam long time.

    Now… before you go anywhere with your weighted average theories please ensure you have credible stats to back it up!


    Here is the puzzle you can solve for yourself if you really understand weighted average.

    Use the flights into or out of Barbados to determine how many people come from each country.

    Then use the positivity ratio for each country a week before today.

    Work out the weighted average of the positivity ratios and compute the positivity ratio expected for Barbados today.

    Assume the numbers of flights have not changed in the week.

    Lyall and Grasshopper with their mathematical minds will probably beat you to it, but try nonetheless and see if you can work it out for Barbados.

  5. Steupse! I am out of the covid business. I thought we were weighting some other average like the weight of the Antifa thugs and Pelosi puppets that Trump plans to pardon.

    Tee hee!

    Do you really think that a simple concept like weighted average is beyond me


  6. Hants beat you to it.

    Look, there is no shame in the fact that many women are not mathematically inclined.

    There are exceptions.

    I have a sister who got an exhibition in Latin Spanish and French at QC then stayed another year and did math at A level and got an A, beating some of the boys in her class at HC where she had to go as QC did not offer Math at A level back then.

  7. hants
    re @ GP,

    we are on the same page old boy

  8. this is very interesting

    Another proof that will slap the left about their disbelief on Ivermectin’s potential.

    Previously, Dr. Volnei José Morastoni, City Mayor of Itajaí, a southern city in Brazil in the state of Santa Catarina has announced a citywide use of Ivermectin against COVID-19.
    NIH Website reported that Mayor Volnei has distributed Ivermectin kits totaling 1.5 million tablets to the residents of Itajaí.

    A comprehensive study confirms that regular usage of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death rates. The ivermectin non-users were two times more likely to die of COVID-19 than ivermectin users in the overall population analysis.

    Why does the left want to stop this prophylactic agent against COVID-19? Maybe they don’t want to put a stop to their PLANdemic? I suppose…

    Read the summary of the study:

    Materials and methods: We analyzed data from a prospective, observational study of the citywide COVID-19 prevention with ivermectin program, which was conducted between July 2020 and December 2020 in Itajaí, Brazil. Study design, institutional review board approval, and analysis of registry data occurred after completion of the program. The program consisted of inviting the entire population of Itajaí to a medical visit to enroll in the program and to compile baseline, personal, demographic, and medical information. In the absence of contraindications, ivermectin was offered as an optional treatment to be taken for two consecutive days every 15 days at a dose of 0.2 mg/kg/day. In cases where a participating citizen of Itajaí became ill with COVID-19, they were recommended not to use ivermectin or any other medication in early outpatient treatment. Clinical outcomes of infection, hospitalization, and death were automatically reported and entered into the registry in real-time. Study analysis consisted of comparing ivermectin users with non-users using cohorts of infected patients propensity scores matched by age, sex, and comorbidities. COVID-19 infection and mortality rates were analyzed with and without the use of propensity score matching (PSM).

    Results: Of the 223,128 citizens of Itajaí considered for the study, a total of 159,561 subjects were included in the analysis: 113,845 (71.3% of the population above 18 years old) regular ivermectin users and 45,716 (23.3%) non-users. Of these, 4,311 ivermectin users were infected, among which 4,197 were from the city of Itajaí (3.7% infection rate), and 3,034 non-users (from Itajaí) were infected (6.6% infection rate), with a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). Using PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects suffering from COVID-19 infection were compared. The regular use of ivermectin led to a 68% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (25 [0.8%] versus 79 [2.6%] among ivermectin non-users; RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49; p < 0.0001). When adjusted for residual variables, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001). There was a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (44 versus 99 hospitalizations among ivermectin users and non-users, respectively; RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63; p < 0.0001). After adjustment for residual variables, reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).

    Of the 113,845 prophylaxed subjects from the city of Itajaí, 4,197 had a positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (3.7% infection rate), while 3,034 of the 37,027 untreated subjects had positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (6.6% infection rate), a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). An addition of 114 subjects who used ivermectin and were infected was originally from other cities but was registered as part of the program, in a total of 4,311 positive cases among ivermectin users. For the present analysis, the 4,311 positive cases among subjects that used ivermectin and 3,034 cases among subjects that did not use ivermectin were considered. After PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects were created.

    Baseline characteristics of the 7,345 subjects included before PSM and the baseline characteristics of the 6,068 subjects in the matched groups are shown in Table 1. Prior to PSM, ivermectin users had a higher percentage of subjects over 50 years old (p < 0.0001), higher prevalence of T2D (p = 0.0004), hypertension (p < 0.0001), and CVD (p = 0.03), and a higher percentage of Caucasians (p = 0.004), than non-users. After PSM, all baseline parameters were similar between groups. Figure 2 summarizes the main findings of this study.

    Hospitalization and mortality rates in ivermectin users and non-users in propensity score-matched analysis

    As described in Table 2, after employing PSM, of the 6,068 subjects (3,034 in each group), there were 44 hospitalizations among ivermectin users (1.6% hospitalization rate) and 99 hospitalizations (3.3% hospitalization rate) among ivermectin non-users, a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63). When adjustment for variables was employed, the reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).

    There were 25 deaths among ivermectin users (0.8% mortality rate) and 79 deaths among non-ivermectin users (2.6% mortality rate), a 68% reduction in mortality rate (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49). When PSM was adjusted, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001).

    In a comparison of citywide COVID-19 hospitalization rates prior to and during the program, COVID-19 mortality decreased from 6.8% before the program with prophylactic use of ivermectin, to 1.8% after its beginning (RR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.21-0.33; p < 0.0001), and in COVID-19 mortality rate, from 3.4% to 1.4% (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.31-0.55; p < 0.0001) (Table 4).

    Final discussion: In this citywide ivermectin prophylaxis program, a large, statistically significant decrease in mortality rate was observed after the program began among the entire population of city residents. When comparing subjects that used ivermectin regularly, non-users were two times more likely to die from COVID-19 while ivermectin users were 7% less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (p = 0.003).

    Although this study is not a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, the data were prospectively collected and resulted in a massive study sample that allowed adjustment for numerous confounding factors, thus strengthening the findings of the present study.

    Due to the well-established, long-term safety profile of ivermectin, with rare adverse effects, the absence of proven therapeutic options to prevent death caused by COVID-19, and lack of effectiveness of vaccines in real-life all-cause mortality analyses to date, we recommend that ivermectin be considered as a preventive strategy, in particular for those at a higher risk of complications from COVID-19 or at higher risk of contracting the illness, not as a substitute for COVID-19 vaccines, but as an additional tool, particularly during periods of high transmission rates.

    Cite this article as Kerr L, Cadegiani F A, Baldi F, et al. (January 15, 2022) Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching

    This study defines what Ivermectin can do, recently, a group of politicians in Kansas has pushed this off-label brand to be a prophylactic agent against the CPP-made virus.

    Sources: The Gateway Pundit, NIH, CUREUS

  9. Brazil looks as though it may plateau soon.

    The recent floods have caused the spread of COVID even worse than the floods from 2020 which lasted till half way into 2021.

    The fall in cases in the latter half of 2021 was when there were no floods.

    Now they are back with a bang and COVID cases are rampant.

    Geography and weather are a difficult combination to overcome.


  10. The storms and flooding in the NE US may soon start the almost inexorable COVID rise.

    … as happens in most countries that experience severe flooding.

    Looks like we’ve got 2 flights from New York per day so our cases will be affected depending on what happens in the other countries from which we get our visitors at the time.


  11. Stupid John,

    Let me spell it out for you since COMPREHENSION seems to be your deficiency. Weighted average is simple. If you want to stump me you have to take it higher.

    Mathematics at certain levels is easy. It is not what interests me, though and so I do not “sprain my brain” with higher levels. Neither is COVID watching what interests me.

    I prefer PEOPLE WATCHING and you are getting mighty boring. You need a new trick!

  12. JohnJanuary 25, 2022 12:15 PM

    This is the bigger issue for Tonga.


    Right now Tonga has no COVID so there should be none in the seawater which the ship will desalinate.

    However, if people come with it and it ends up in runoff there is the possibility of it spreading like wildfire.

    The answer would be to go as far out to sea as feasible and use the sea water from there … common sense.


    Two cases found in Tonga, claimed to be community spread.


  13. Pressure from backlog
    by TRE GREAVES tregreaves@nationnews.com
    THE BACKLOG of COVID-19 home isolation clearance is putting an exceptional amount of pressure on employees and employers in the private sector, says executive director of the Barbados Employers’ Confederation (BEC), Sheena Mayers-Granville.
    If the situation continues, she adds, there could be cash flow implications.
    “We have some organisations that are unable to pay persons while they are on sick leave so employees have to wait until they receive National Insurance Scheme benefits. Some employers do pay while employees are on sick leave, and have an arrangement where the employee would then refund the company with their sick leave benefit.
    “However, we are dealing with a depressed economy and significant expenses in managing COVID, and if you had to employ temporary coverage while this employee is on sick leave, there are cash flow implications while you are waiting for recovery of money. So if there is a significant delay in persons being able to submit a claim, that is a further delay in them receiving benefits so employees will be disadvantaged. That has been a significant burden for the private sector from as far back as December,” Mayers-Granville lamented.
    She was responding yesterday to repeated complaints from employees who had spent the stipulated ten days in home isolation but still had not received their clearance forms from the Ministry of Health to return to work.
    The BEC official pointed out that patients who isolate at facilities such as Harrison Point received their clearance after they left.
    She said some individuals in home quarantine, who were also entitled to sickness benefits, were experiencing clearance challenges as well.
    “I understand that the ministry is working to streamline the process,
    but regrettably, it has taken this long especially because it was raised some time ago. I am hopeful that we can have a speedy resolution and a process that would allow people to access benefits within a timely manner,” she added.
    In the last SUNDAY SUN, Home Isolation manager Dr Adanna Grandison said plans were in the pipeline to have an automated system to issue clearance certificates. She said that pending the requisite approvals, they hoped to have the systems ready in a week or two.
    COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis told the country last week that the Home Isolation Unit was overwhelmed, as it had only two people manning the department.
    He said that rising cases brought on by the Omicron variant compounded the human resource challenges. As of January 31, there were 10 710 people in home isolation and 177 in isolation facilities. “The relevant section dealing with certificates to release people from isolation is under immense pressure and therefore we are getting a number of calls, some from people who are quite irate, about the fact they are not getting processed at the kind of speed they desire . . . .
    “A lot of it is rooted in the fact we are getting so many positive cases recently. The last time we went through something like this was when we had the Delta wave. Therefore, I believe what we are experiencing right now is symbolic of how the Omicron wave has gone so far and we have to wait and see if we have reached the peak,” Ellis said.

    Source: Nation

  14. Why would there be a fuss by the warders to this kind of testing?

    Warders cry foul over test


    HEAD OF THE Unity Workers Union Caswell Franklyn is warning that trouble could be brewing among prison officers and staff at Her Majesty’s Prison Dodds, over what he deems as an attempt to implement mandatory COVID-19 testing following a second outbreak of the virus at the correctional institution.
    Franklyn, who is a consultant to the Prison Officers Association, told the DAILY NATION that upon turning up to work yesterday, officers were told they needed to complete a rapid antigen test before entry.
    He said prison officers were quite riled up, warning the authorities that this was the same issue that pushed nurses over the edge, resulting in a more than a two-month long strike by the health care providers.
    However, Superintendent of Prisons Lieutenant Colonel John Nurse said the concerns raised by Franklyn were essentially much ado about nothing, adding that no mandatory testing regime was implemented. He also acknowledged that officers should have been informed ahead of time that a Covid screening was being performed that day, adding that the prison administration had already apologised to staff for failing to give them the headsup.
    The Unity Workers Union head said he had already instructed the officers that no one could force them to take a test and if they were refused entry to the prison, then they should return home.
    “This morning [yesterday] I received a number of calls from upset prison officers who told me that they are now being forced to take a rapid test before they can enter work. We don’t know how often they are supposed to repeat
    this exercise, but I informed them that it is their right to refuse a medical procedure, and this is exactly what that is. People need to remember that it was this same issue that was the last straw for the nurses,” said Franklyn.
    In response, Nurse said any concerns over the testing by prison medical services have been quelled, noting that the prison had committed to giving adequate notice to staff before attempting such measures in the future.
    “What happened this morning is that the medical unit did an ad hoc rapid test on some people. I have since had discussions with them because there were certain protocols that we ought to have gone through first. We didn’t have that discussion with the officers beforehand.
    “We do have a few cases in the prison and we do have a number of officers outside of the prison who are positive, so using their own initiative, they just wanted to do an ad hoc check. With that said, there are certain procedures that should have been followed first and, unfortunately, that was not done. We have since sent out an apology to staff because we normally would notify people first,” said Nurse.
    One-off situation
    He further explained: “That was a one-off situation but if there is a requirement, however, for testing going forward, we will let people know. If I want to jump on an aircraft and go to any place outside of Barbados, I have got to get a test. We know that this is part of the status quo, so I don’t know that people are upset because they had to get a test. Instead, I think the concern was that it came upon them suddenly without the proper notification and, in that context, I agree with the officers.”
    On Tuesday, Minister of Home Affairs Wilfred Abrahams confirmed that both staff and inmates had been affected. However, he said then that the prison was not on lockdown, such as what occurred in 2020 when hundreds of inmates and staff contracted the virus.
    In a statement released yesterday Abrahams said: “Recently, a staff member who works in the kitchen felt ill and tested positive for COVID-19. This resulted in the testing of all the associated inmates and staff between Saturday, January 29, and Monday, January 31. From that number, some 18 male inmates tested positive on their first test and a further 26 received positive results today from their second tests yesterday.”
    The minister said that at present, all of the positive inmates were stable and isolated in the prison, while all of those who had been in contact with them have been quarantined away from the rest of the prison population.
    He further disclosed:
    “A decision was made to rapid test today’s incoming shift of prison officers and five positive results have been reported. It would appear at this time that these ‘new’ positives are not related to the kitchen outbreak and while this is a concerning development, it is not surprising considering the prevailing positivity rate outside of the prison since Omicron’s emergence.”

    Source: Nation

  15. The blogmaster has no major issue with the context of the message from the CMO.

    CMO: Covid should no longer be front page news
    COVID is here to stay.
    That is the message the Chief Medical Officer The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George wants Barbadians to understand.
    He added that it should also be kept off the front pages of newspapers.
    George was speaking while accepting a set of patient care equipment from the charity Betty’s Walk For St Philip District Hospital at the hospital yesterday.
    Responding to a question as to the next step to deal with the controversial fallout from a just finished Twenty/20 international cricket match at Kensington Oval – at which mostly visitors and some locals were seen not wearing masks during the event – he said: “With respect to cricket that is history.
    “We had made special recommendations and worked with cricket behind the scenes. There will soon be another set of matches and we will make sure that we put a situation in place that we limit the spread.”
    George also said the focus for the next two weeks was to have schools reopen because Barbados was one of the few in the region that did not have face-to-face classes.
    “So let me make it clear: COVID is here to stay. And we must start moving away from putting COVID on the front page of the news. It is here with us for a long period of time.
    “We have made a decision in public health based on our plans for COVID and our new direction – which is currently operational [and] which I spoke to a few days ago – is that the emphasis has to be on living with COVID safely.”
    The CMO said the economy was the focus and drew reference to countries which were moving away from “lockdowns and shutting out people”.
    “We have evolved and what we have tried to do in Barbados is have the COVID response evolved as the conditions have made available and [appropriate] to us.”
    George added the St Michael Hospital and the Psychiatric Hospital were significantly affected by the spread.
    “And this is going to happen because we still have widespread community passage of the virus among people,” he said, while thanking all health care workers.
    He also said the Crane Resort’s testing laboratory has been added to the two others – Bayview site and Chem Screen – to do PCR and antigen testing “because this cannot only be a Government response”. ( JS)

    Source: Nation

  16. So ohmigod was a dud just as I predicted!!

    It’s official.

    However, if there is a sufficient number of persons with Covid when the next flood comes and they are properly located we are in trouble.

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