BU Covid Dash – No Need for Panic
Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January. We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January. This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s. The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low levels while Home isolations rose precipitately. If these dynamics are maintained there will be no need to panic and fear that the dread worse case prediction of 3,500 peak cases per day is heading our way. The data also indicates that the Covid-19 team and the Barbados populace in general are continuing to do a good job – Source: Lyall Small
Barbados Underground 
Strange. One would think the superior and logical men would be smart enough to do “their” job.
Too busy beating their bedroom breasts, chasing orgasms and not giving any! Not even getting that job done! Or so I’m told.
Oh dear!
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DonnaJanuary 31, 2022 7:44 AM
Boy oh boy! Women are not logical at all!
I am so sorry that I was not eligible to nominate the logical right wing looney man John Knox to run in his constituency.
We need more men in leadership positions. There are at present, too many illogical women.
Thing is, I would bet my life that more illogical women believe in Bushie’s BBE warning system than the logical men.
My poor little brain cannot comprehend this logic!
Oh dear!
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Do you understand the concept of a weighted average?
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That was a test to see how illogical you are.
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Hint: Weighted Average has nothing to do with obesity from which much of Barbados suffers.
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Barbados has had 535,223 tests according to the Johns Hopkins data..
Obviously the bulk of those tested are visitors.
Our population has not been tested twice!!
So let us see if an estimate can be gleaned as to how many Bajans have been tested.
Using the 80/20 rule it would appear roughly 100K test have been done on locals.
Since many of our cases are going to be reinfections, we may have as many as 50,000 or as few as 20,000 actual Bajans who have been tested.
The reinfections are the folks unfortunate enough to live in the Southern Corridor.
Just to insert a dose of reality ($$) into the discussion, if each test costs $100, we are looking at a $50 million dollar industry over the past 2 years.
Having about 2k tests per day, the revenue generated is of the order of $200,000BDS ………… per day … most of which will be FOREX!!.
You think it makes sense to close the borders?
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https://gisbarbados.gov.bb/blog/fee-for-covid-19-testing-to-attend-private-events/
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Only insects could stop the influx of visitors from the UK!!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/travel/insect-infested-aircraft-at-heathrow-forced-to-abandon-take-offs/ar-AATjYLD?cvid=687d64e5b7104eb0a5d442baf95bd0c5&ocid=winp1taskbar
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Barbadians are tested repeatedly whether work related, travel etc.
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Mr. WOULD BE ANTIFA THUG OR PELOSI PUPPET,
I learnt about weighted average long long ago. Passed that exam long time.
Now… before you go anywhere with your weighted average theories please ensure you have credible stats to back it up!
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How do you feel about Marjorie Taylor Green as the next Vice President?
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DavidJanuary 31, 2022 11:07 AM
Barbadians are tested repeatedly whether work related, travel etc.
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You don’t understand the scale of the testing.
Where are over 2,000+ Bajans to be found every day to be tested?
Common sense dictates most of the 2,000+ are visitors.
If there are 100 Bajans being tested on a day, there are alot.
At 2,000+ tests per day the whole of my constituency would be tested in 4 days flat!!
Nearly all of the positives have to be visitors, it is pure common sense.
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FWI ( fuh wunna information ) I does drink Schweppes tonic water regularly.
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Prime Minister Trudeau tests positive for COVID-19
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/prime-minister-trudeau-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.5761198
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Between Midday and 6:00pm there are flights to and from BGI to London, New York, Miami and Toronto!!
Between 6:00pm and Midnight dum got more to and from Frankfurt and 1 to Manchester.
I could be double counting but you look and see for yourself on this site.
https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/departures/BGI/?year=2022&month=1&date=31&hour=12
The point is there are nuff nuff international flights and nuf nuff visitor arrivals and departures every day.
Frankfurt, England Miami, New York Toronto.
Dat don even count the flights to and from Trinidad, Guyana, Dominica etc etc etc!!
Dey even got one to Aquadilla wherever dat is.
Anybody ever went dere?
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Coconut Hairways ent even start flying yet!!
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HANTS
WITH ALL DUE RESPECT THAT RECIPE DOES NOT MAKE SENSE
YOU GET CITRIC ACID FROM CITRUS FRUIT AS FAR AS I KNOW’AND THE WHITE STUFF IN THE SKIN IS A RELATED CITRIC ACID PRODUCT
QUININE COMES FROM A DIFFERENT PLANT
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THE ORGANIC CHEMISTRY SEEMS TO BE ASKEW THERE OLD BOY ACCORDING TO MY UNDERSTANDING WHEN LOOKING INTO ALTERNATIVE MEDICINES IN THE MID 90’S
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@ GP,
YOU SAID YOU DOES DRINK TONIC WATER AND THAT IS WHAT I DO.
I DON’T ADD GIN .LOL
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DonnaJanuary 31, 2022 11:27 AM
Mr. WOULD BE ANTIFA THUG OR PELOSI PUPPET,
I learnt about weighted average long long ago. Passed that exam long time.
Now… before you go anywhere with your weighted average theories please ensure you have credible stats to back it up!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here is the puzzle you can solve for yourself if you really understand weighted average.
Use the flights into or out of Barbados to determine how many people come from each country.
Then use the positivity ratio for each country a week before today.
Work out the weighted average of the positivity ratios and compute the positivity ratio expected for Barbados today.
Assume the numbers of flights have not changed in the week.
Lyall and Grasshopper with their mathematical minds will probably beat you to it, but try nonetheless and see if you can work it out for Barbados.
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If you are quick, you might get the result before Hants puts up today’s numbers later tonight.
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Barbados recorded 437 cases COVID-19 from the 1,803 tests .
https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/31/covid-19-update-437-new-cases/
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Steupse! I am out of the covid business. I thought we were weighting some other average like the weight of the Antifa thugs and Pelosi puppets that Trump plans to pardon.
Tee hee!
Do you really think that a simple concept like weighted average is beyond me
Steupse!
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Mathematical mind indeed! Who needs a mathematical mind to figure out weighted average.
Go higher, man!
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Insert ?s.
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Hants beat you to it.
Look, there is no shame in the fact that many women are not mathematically inclined.
There are exceptions.
I have a sister who got an exhibition in Latin Spanish and French at QC then stayed another year and did math at A level and got an A, beating some of the boys in her class at HC where she had to go as QC did not offer Math at A level back then.
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsliverpool/mystery-dog-illness-rapidly-spreading-across-uk-and-what-symptoms-to-look-out-for/ar-AATjJ3A?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
Water perhaps?
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hants
re @ GP,
YOU SAID YOU DOES DRINK TONIC WATER AND THAT IS WHAT I DO. I DON’T ADD GIN .LOL
we are on the same page old boy
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this is very interesting
https://fearandblood.com/uncategorized/they-just-issued-mandatory-ivermectin-use-what-happened-next/
Another proof that will slap the left about their disbelief on Ivermectin’s potential.
Previously, Dr. Volnei José Morastoni, City Mayor of Itajaí, a southern city in Brazil in the state of Santa Catarina has announced a citywide use of Ivermectin against COVID-19.
NIH Website reported that Mayor Volnei has distributed Ivermectin kits totaling 1.5 million tablets to the residents of Itajaí.
A comprehensive study confirms that regular usage of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death rates. The ivermectin non-users were two times more likely to die of COVID-19 than ivermectin users in the overall population analysis.
Why does the left want to stop this prophylactic agent against COVID-19? Maybe they don’t want to put a stop to their PLANdemic? I suppose…
Read the summary of the study:
Materials and methods: We analyzed data from a prospective, observational study of the citywide COVID-19 prevention with ivermectin program, which was conducted between July 2020 and December 2020 in Itajaí, Brazil. Study design, institutional review board approval, and analysis of registry data occurred after completion of the program. The program consisted of inviting the entire population of Itajaí to a medical visit to enroll in the program and to compile baseline, personal, demographic, and medical information. In the absence of contraindications, ivermectin was offered as an optional treatment to be taken for two consecutive days every 15 days at a dose of 0.2 mg/kg/day. In cases where a participating citizen of Itajaí became ill with COVID-19, they were recommended not to use ivermectin or any other medication in early outpatient treatment. Clinical outcomes of infection, hospitalization, and death were automatically reported and entered into the registry in real-time. Study analysis consisted of comparing ivermectin users with non-users using cohorts of infected patients propensity scores matched by age, sex, and comorbidities. COVID-19 infection and mortality rates were analyzed with and without the use of propensity score matching (PSM).
Results: Of the 223,128 citizens of Itajaí considered for the study, a total of 159,561 subjects were included in the analysis: 113,845 (71.3% of the population above 18 years old) regular ivermectin users and 45,716 (23.3%) non-users. Of these, 4,311 ivermectin users were infected, among which 4,197 were from the city of Itajaí (3.7% infection rate), and 3,034 non-users (from Itajaí) were infected (6.6% infection rate), with a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). Using PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects suffering from COVID-19 infection were compared. The regular use of ivermectin led to a 68% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (25 [0.8%] versus 79 [2.6%] among ivermectin non-users; RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49; p < 0.0001). When adjusted for residual variables, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001). There was a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (44 versus 99 hospitalizations among ivermectin users and non-users, respectively; RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63; p < 0.0001). After adjustment for residual variables, reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).
Of the 113,845 prophylaxed subjects from the city of Itajaí, 4,197 had a positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (3.7% infection rate), while 3,034 of the 37,027 untreated subjects had positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (6.6% infection rate), a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). An addition of 114 subjects who used ivermectin and were infected was originally from other cities but was registered as part of the program, in a total of 4,311 positive cases among ivermectin users. For the present analysis, the 4,311 positive cases among subjects that used ivermectin and 3,034 cases among subjects that did not use ivermectin were considered. After PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects were created.
Baseline characteristics of the 7,345 subjects included before PSM and the baseline characteristics of the 6,068 subjects in the matched groups are shown in Table 1. Prior to PSM, ivermectin users had a higher percentage of subjects over 50 years old (p < 0.0001), higher prevalence of T2D (p = 0.0004), hypertension (p < 0.0001), and CVD (p = 0.03), and a higher percentage of Caucasians (p = 0.004), than non-users. After PSM, all baseline parameters were similar between groups. Figure 2 summarizes the main findings of this study.
Hospitalization and mortality rates in ivermectin users and non-users in propensity score-matched analysis
As described in Table 2, after employing PSM, of the 6,068 subjects (3,034 in each group), there were 44 hospitalizations among ivermectin users (1.6% hospitalization rate) and 99 hospitalizations (3.3% hospitalization rate) among ivermectin non-users, a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63). When adjustment for variables was employed, the reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).
There were 25 deaths among ivermectin users (0.8% mortality rate) and 79 deaths among non-ivermectin users (2.6% mortality rate), a 68% reduction in mortality rate (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49). When PSM was adjusted, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001).
In a comparison of citywide COVID-19 hospitalization rates prior to and during the program, COVID-19 mortality decreased from 6.8% before the program with prophylactic use of ivermectin, to 1.8% after its beginning (RR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.21-0.33; p < 0.0001), and in COVID-19 mortality rate, from 3.4% to 1.4% (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.31-0.55; p < 0.0001) (Table 4).
Final discussion: In this citywide ivermectin prophylaxis program, a large, statistically significant decrease in mortality rate was observed after the program began among the entire population of city residents. When comparing subjects that used ivermectin regularly, non-users were two times more likely to die from COVID-19 while ivermectin users were 7% less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (p = 0.003).
Although this study is not a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, the data were prospectively collected and resulted in a massive study sample that allowed adjustment for numerous confounding factors, thus strengthening the findings of the present study.
Due to the well-established, long-term safety profile of ivermectin, with rare adverse effects, the absence of proven therapeutic options to prevent death caused by COVID-19, and lack of effectiveness of vaccines in real-life all-cause mortality analyses to date, we recommend that ivermectin be considered as a preventive strategy, in particular for those at a higher risk of complications from COVID-19 or at higher risk of contracting the illness, not as a substitute for COVID-19 vaccines, but as an additional tool, particularly during periods of high transmission rates.
Cite this article as Kerr L, Cadegiani F A, Baldi F, et al. (January 15, 2022) Ivermectin Prophylaxis Used for COVID-19: A Citywide, Prospective, Observational Study of 223,128 Subjects Using Propensity Score Matching
This study defines what Ivermectin can do, recently, a group of politicians in Kansas has pushed this off-label brand to be a prophylactic agent against the CPP-made virus.
Sources: The Gateway Pundit, NIH, CUREUS
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Brazil looks as though it may plateau soon.
The recent floods have caused the spread of COVID even worse than the floods from 2020 which lasted till half way into 2021.
The fall in cases in the latter half of 2021 was when there were no floods.
Now they are back with a bang and COVID cases are rampant.
Geography and weather are a difficult combination to overcome.
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The storms and flooding in the NE US may soon start the almost inexorable COVID rise.
… as happens in most countries that experience severe flooding.
Looks like we’ve got 2 flights from New York per day so our cases will be affected depending on what happens in the other countries from which we get our visitors at the time.
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Stupid John,
Let me spell it out for you since COMPREHENSION seems to be your deficiency. Weighted average is simple. If you want to stump me you have to take it higher.
Mathematics at certain levels is easy. It is not what interests me, though and so I do not “sprain my brain” with higher levels. Neither is COVID watching what interests me.
I prefer PEOPLE WATCHING and you are getting mighty boring. You need a new trick!
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JohnJanuary 25, 2022 12:15 PM
This is the bigger issue for Tonga.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/new-zealand-sends-navy-ship-to-help-tonga-produce-drinking-water/13727114
Right now Tonga has no COVID so there should be none in the seawater which the ship will desalinate.
However, if people come with it and it ends up in runoff there is the possibility of it spreading like wildfire.
The answer would be to go as far out to sea as feasible and use the sea water from there … common sense.
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Two cases found in Tonga, claimed to be community spread.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/2/tonga-to-go-on-lockdown-after-recording-two-covid-cases
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Source: Nation
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Interesting.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/holidays-at-risk-as-spain-rejects-uk-covid-recovery-certificates/ar-AAToAnp?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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More interesting
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/total-uk-covid-cases-jump-by-760-000-as-reinfections-added-for-first-time/ar-AATmFpm?ocid=msedgntp
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More bad weather in the UK!!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/snow-expected-in-uk-in-days-as-met-office-issues-weather-warning-with-arctic-plunge/ar-AATmOUz?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
Coconut Hairways will be over booked!!
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Test Cricket next month!!
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It’s official
Lockdowns don’t work!!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/covid-lockdown-prevented-only-0-2pc-of-deaths-in-first-wave/ar-AATpz0M?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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1 940 cases in three days
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Most of them no doubt Brits on holiday.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/keep-your-mouth-shut-to-stop-getting-sick-water-company-boss-tells-swimmers/ar-AATpq68?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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This is our source of many of our visitors!!
BAMP ain’t saying peep!!
We should let them in and keep the economy going.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/covid-19-infection-levels-no-longer-falling-in-uk-figures-suggest/ar-AATpjrE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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Better keep an eye on this.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-reports-534-covid-deaths-highest-in-nearly-a-year/ar-AATpd4i?ocid=msedgntp
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Why would there be a fuss by the warders to this kind of testing?
Source: Nation
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Now this is interesting!!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-city-sewage-mysterious-coronavirus-132916388.html
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Oh oh, this is not good.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-records-303-new-covid-deaths-in-24-hours-after-highest-rise-since-last-winter/ar-AATrdQB?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
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The blogmaster has no major issue with the context of the message from the CMO.
Source: Nation
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So ohmigod was a dud just as I predicted!!
It’s official.
However, if there is a sufficient number of persons with Covid when the next flood comes and they are properly located we are in trouble.
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