BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers

Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022.  I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus.  Total isolations are increasing gradually but Official Isolations are going down slowly and the Reproductive rates are actually decreasing at this stage.  Deaths are still relatively low.  The charts seem to be indicating that we might yet escape the dire UWI model predictions.  So far, so good.

Lyall Small

147 comments

  • Just had a brilliant idea..

    Quite often, we heard that some BLP MP’s we’re opposed to Mia. What if in her devious calculations, this would also help her to cull the herd of these treacherous characters. Better to face impending doom in late 2022 with a loyal cohort than a perfidious bunch. The woman is brilliant.

    Like

  • Better to lose 3 or 4 in January than to wrestle with then for a year and a half.

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  • That is like killing four birds with one stone
    the opposition parties,
    the mutinous bunch and
    ensuring she has a possible eight more years.

    My assumption is that the mutinous bunch are not in BLP strongholds.

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  • Have a great day Barbados
    Have a great day ❤ Mia ❤

    Like

  • TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:13 AM

    The Nation gives the number of eligible voters who will be denied the opportunity to vote as more than 4,000.

    The BLP trounced the DLP in the 2018 elections with the margin of victory being well over 500 in most constituencies, but in 2013 and earlier a difference of 100 votes could separate the winner or the loser.

    As this pandemic may lead to a smaller voter turnout and as the performance of the BLP with a 30-0 has not been impressive, the removal of 4,000 votes from the election may change the outcome of our elections. It is possible that Mia tilted the scale in her favor.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Unless they are suffering from “Long COVID” I suspect that most of the 4,000 may be visitors.

    To get to 4,000 at 50 cases per day in the local population would take two to three months.

    Still, it does seem strange that there would be thousands of tourists who would be in isolation and keep quiet.

    Maybe they are the high end visitors who spend 6 months out of the year here to escape the weather in their countries.

    Maybe they can vote … like Donville’s good buddy the dentist who the court allowed to vote just before the 2018 elections.

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  • This 4,000 isolations number seems like a large number for even the local population far less the tourist population.

    Anyone on here knows of person or persons in isolation?

    It was way back in November that the Safe Zone concept was raised.

    https://barbadosunderground.net/2021/11/13/bu-covid-dash-safe-zones-long-talk/

    This was the way we could get the arrivals back and get on with living.

    But weather was worsening and cases in the UK were rising back then.

    Naturally peeps would want to get to a tropical paradise.

    Where is this population of 4,000 peeps to be found in Barbados?

    Commonwealth citizens can vote, right?

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  • What is the cumulative effect of isolating infected persons for 15 days with infected # being 60?

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  • Isn’t it 5 days these days?

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  • TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:24 AM

    To the phrase “Numbers do not speak for themselves”, I would add “We should be wary of those who speak for the numbers”.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    A word to the wise Grasshopper

    A picture/Graph is worth a thousand words.

    That’s been a standard saying for more than a century because it’s true.

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  • 5 days as far as the blogmaster is aware is the number used to determine incubation period before testing for the virus.

    Like

  • GP EX SCHOLAR REPORTING FROM MY GROUND

    RE heOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 8:15 AM

    Just had a brilliant idea..

    Quite often, we heard that some BLP MP’s we’re opposed to Mia. What if in her devious calculations, this would also help her to cull the herd of these treacherous characters. Better to face impending doom in late 2022 with a loyal cohort than a perfidious bunch. The woman is brilliant.

    ANTIOCHUS EPIPHANES IV WAS CONSIDERED TO BE BRILLIANT ALSO , AND SO TOO THE MAIN ONE WHO HE PREFIGURED, AND THE MANY LIKE HIM THAT HE FIGURED.
    WHAT WAS ANTIOCHUS’S END LIKE?
    WHAT WAS THE END OF THE MANY LIKE HIM?
    WHAT WILL BE THE END OF THE MANY LIKE HIM ON THE WORLD SCENE TODAY?

    READ UP ON ANTIOCHUS EPIPHANES IV

    Like

  • GP, one time BU "resident doctor"

    TheOGazertsJanuary 17, 2022 7:24 AM
    Covid-19 is complicated.
    ACTUALLY IT IS NOT
    BUT IT HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY MORONIC POLITICIANS MEDLING IN MEDICINE AND MISHANDLING ITS MANAGEMENT
    IT HAS BEEN COMPLICATED ALSO BY A DIABOLICAL DOCTOR AND OTHERS OF HIS ILK WHO DENIDED THE TRUTH AND THE DERIDED EXELENT ADVICE BY DILIGENT DOCTORS, AND COMMANDERED THE POPULAR PRESS TO DO SO

    NOTHING AT ALL COMPLICATED TO THOSE DOCTORS WHO APPLIED COMMON SENSE, PROPER MEDICINE AND PRESCRIBED INVERMECTIN AND HYDROXYCHLOROUINONE WITH GREAT SUCESS.

    IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, JESUS PREDICTED IN THE OLIVET DISCOURSE IN MATHEW 24:4-8 THAT SUCH A PANDEMIC WOULD OCCUR……AND SO IT HAS.

    NOTHING AT ALL COMPLICATED ABOUT COVID
    THE ABOVE IS SOUND DOCTRINE THAT CAN NOT BE REFUTED.

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  • Thinking ahead.

    Actually 7 days currently.

    But if you want to look at the cumulative effect you need to subtract the cases that resolve and checkout too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/ministers-considering-cutting-covid-isolation-to-five-days-says-boris-johnson

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  • Good without saying. The substantive point is that given mandatory isolation/quarantine period hundreds/thousands mentioned may not be far fetched.

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  • 5600 in isolation.

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  • Looks like the falling cases in the UK are being reflected here!!

    See how easy it is when you have a picture in your mind of how it works?

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  • @ David,

    I am guessing that between 3 and 4 thousand will not be allowed to vote.

    The government does not have to guess. They have all the information to state how many voters will not be allowed to vote because of a positive Covid test.

    But who cares unless someone loses by 50 votes.

    There could be court challenges.

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  • DavidJanuary 17, 2022 11:38 AM

    Good without saying. The substantive point is that given mandatory isolation/quarantine period hundreds/thousands mentioned may not be far fetched.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    If 60 produce hundreds/thousands then 400+ must produce thousands/tens of thousands.

    So where is the GOB hiding them?

    The 5,600 in isolation have to be principally imported cases.

    QED

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  • @Hants

    The public health directive states all persons in isolation must stay put. The CMO would have to issue a chat to his order. Unless you are suggesting the PM has control of that office too.

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  • Are the 5,600 all commonwealth citziens who can vote?

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  • How many of the 5,600 in isolation are imported cases and can they vote?

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  • What we know is that all of them drank the water and took a bath.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David,

    As long as the BLP wins by a landslide all will be well in the Republic of Bim.

    Voters rights and responsibilities ain’t that important to some.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @Mr.Hants, and what possible grounds exactly would you see that “There could be court challenges.”

    We had a by-election up north by you (Bajan north in St. Peter) decided by one vote but to your point I really do not know if we will see 50 votes tally differences on Wednesday night … BUT in the event there are some of those are you suggesting that like in that by-election we will get a lot of do-overs!

    Wouldn’t hold my breath on that!

    Like

  • The Omicron surge hasn’t peaked nationwide, and ‘the next few weeks will be tough,’ US surgeon general says

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/17/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

    Like

  • DavidJanuary 17, 2022 6:29 PM

    What we know is that all of them drank the water and took a bath.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I’ve been doing that all the time because I know with a high level of confidence that my distribution area is not served by the desal plant.

    For the moment there is very little COVID spread in Barbados if imported cases are excluded because no floods to upset the equilibrium.

    Were it not for the imported cases we would soon be COVID free because no water sources are compromised … no floods!!

    It’s real simple!!

    Like

  • Ohmigod cannot spread on its own!!

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  • It would have been helpful to our democracy, if ALL opposition parties had been persistent and strident in encouraging Bajan citizens and residents to take the vaccine. If they had done so over the last 11 months since vaccines became available in Barbados maybe we would not now have approximately 4,000 adults in isolation. I wonder how many of this 4,000 have refused to be vaccinated for political reasons???

    Like

  • @TheOGazerts January 17, 2022 8:15 AM

    “devious calculations
    cull the herd
    treacherous characters
    impending doom
    perfidious bunch”

    The normally gentle Theo is being very harsh today.

    Like

  • For the moment the spread in the UK is dying down and our imported cases are falling.

    If there is a flood up that side, cases in the UK will rise once more and we will see the same thing happen here.

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 7:12 PM

    It would have been helpful to our democracy, if ALL opposition parties had been persistent and strident in encouraging Bajan citizens and residents to take the vaccine. If they had done so over the last 11 months since vaccines became available in Barbados maybe we would not now have approximately 4,000 adults in isolation. I wonder how many of this 4,000 have refused to be vaccinated for political reasons???

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The UK is one the most vaccinated countries in the world and it has something like 3-4 million unresolved cases.

    It is clear that vaccination does not help the spread there and elsewhwere.

    So long as we are dependent on the UK for our visitors, we will have people in isolation, most of them imported … who may or may not be able to vote.

    My bet is all will vote!!!

    After al, they are commonwealth citizens.

    Like

  • Another view

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  • @lyallsmall January 16, 2022 10:55 AM “eg: Why do the numbers from the population of presumably sick persons in Barbados always have significantly fewer persons who have been partially vaccinated as compared with the other categories?”

    I’ve noticed this too, but honestly don’t know the answer.

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  • @John “My bet is all will vote!!! After al, they are commonwealth citizens.”

    They can only vote if they are Commonwealth citizens + have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more

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  • Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

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  • And is it ok to go to a polling place if I haven’t bathed for a few months?

    Should I wait for a ruling from the Electoral and Boundaries Commission?

    The Ministry of Health

    The PM

    The courts

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  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:59 PM

    Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I could have sworn you told everyone the complete opposite.

    Why have you suddenly started with this confabulation?

    Is the family concerned?

    https://www.verywellhealth.com/responding-to-confabulation-in-dementia-97969

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 9:02 PM

    And is it ok to go to a polling place if I haven’t bathed for a few months?

    Should I wait for a ruling from the Electoral and Boundaries Commission?

    The Ministry of Health

    The PM

    The courts

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Did Gearbox vote?

    What about all the street characters we see/saw around Bridgetown?

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:56 PM

    @John “My bet is all will vote!!! After al, they are commonwealth citizens.”

    They can only vote if they are Commonwealth citizens + have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    How many of those in isolation have been resident in Barbados for 3 years or more and are Commonwealth citizens?

    There are lots of expats, commonwealth citizens who routinely stay in Barbados 6 months or more to qualify in their original jurisdiction for tax exempt status in their countries of origin!!

    If the qualification for residence abroad in their countries of origin is living outside for 6 months or more, what’s the qualification for continuous living in Barbados?

    Would for example a Welcome Stamp qualify a person to vote?

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:59 PM

    Dear John:

    Following your advice I haven’t bathed since mid-September when there was Covid in my neighbourhood. My family is beginning to get a little snippy with me. Question for you: Is it ok to start bathing again, or should I ignore the family’s low talk and hold off bathing for a few more months?

    Thanks

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Ask the BWA if they are still getting turbidity in the water from Bowmanston.

    Since the number of local COVID cases are minimal and mostly imported you may not have to worry about the pumping station at Sweet Bottom but you should keep an eye until sewers are installed.

    Take a walk through the district and ask if anyone has had COVID recently.

    As a Ground Keeper you would know if the ground has dried out.

    Just use your intelligence and powers of observation.

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 17, 2022 8:13 PM

    @lyallsmall January 16, 2022 10:55 AM “eg: Why do the numbers from the population of presumably sick persons in Barbados always have significantly fewer persons who have been partially vaccinated as compared with the other categories?”

    I’ve noticed this too, but honestly don’t know the answer.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I’ll explain it simply for you and Lyall.

    A picture is worth 1000 words.

    In this case, the graph is absolutely brilliant.

    Look carefully at the y axis.

    It isn’t numbers of cases but percentages.

    So, if there are let’s say 100 persons in isolation, about 5 will be partially vaccinated.

    No visitor is going to travel without being fully vaccinated unless they are like my boy Novax who went all the way to Australia to share his unmatched talents with the world.

    So the partially vaccinated are all local.

    That tells you that the vaccinated locals who are in isolation must be even fewer as all the scientific data I’ve seen seems to indicate that it is better to be fully vaccinated than partially vaccinated.

    Let’s say they are 7 locals in the 100 in isolation.

    We know that from a while back when not much travel was taking place that roughly 60% of locals in isolation were unvaccinated, the rest being vaccinated or partially vaccinated.

    So if 7 locals can be identified as being vaccinated or partially vaccinated then this is roughly 40% of the locals in isolation.

    So you are looking at well under 20 locals of the 100 in isolation.

    That means that there are over 80 imported cases in every 100 people in isolation.

    So the local spread of the virus must be pretty small.

    Our cases are principally imported, like Bali, another tourist destination in the world but one which is careful to keep the two populations separate.

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  • It is probably ok to bathe in your district now the ground has dried out but DO NOT run around hugging tourists.

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  • Lyall has left off the % label on the y axis but if you add the graphs you will always get 100!!

    I admit it tricked me at first too.

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  • Hopefully this helps.

    Up to my usual scholarly contributions?

    Like

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