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PetroCaribe:The Cat & Mouse Game

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300px-hugo_chavez_in_brazil-1861.jpegFormer Minister of Social Transformation Hamilton Lashley was quoted in the media from his contribution to the current Estimates Debate, that against the backdrop of rising oil prices, Barbados should accept the President Chevez sponsored PetroCaribe deal. Funny that we can’t seem to remember Mr. Lashley shouting so loudly on this matter when he was on the government side. If we are being too harsh on the sitting member from St. Michael, we apologize.

There has been a lot of debate about the PetroCaribe offer from President Chevez of Venezuela to his Caribbean and Latin American neighbours. At the end of it all Barbados under the former Arthur government excused itself from the arrangement. Interestingly however, Dominican Republic (DR), Jamaica and Dominica have signed on. Remember that DR is now part of Cariforum which is the Caribbean group thrashing-out an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union (EU). It is no surprise that Cuba and Nicaragua are also PetroCaribe members.

Hamilton Lashley should be careful what he is wishing for. We recently read a document that is highly recommended reading for Lashley.

In summary, why should Barbados become a target in the inevitable crossfire between the USA and Venezuela? It is no secret that President Chevez is using a power derived from being the head of Venezuela, which is a top oil producer in the world. He is the mastermind behind ALBA, a scheme which is designed to promote trade between developing countries in the Caribbean and Latin America. It should not be lost on BU readers that the formation of ALBA challenges the more acceptable free trade arrangements like WTO and FTAA which are fully endorsed by the USA.

Barbados must thread carefully for many reasons. First and foremost it is only a matter of time before the USA starts to become irritated by the pesky Chevez and his known sympathizers and supporters. There is a well worn saying that ‘you cannot be in Church and Chapel too’. At some point the USA is going to pull the rug from under Jamaica, Dominica and the DR. Here is the interesting bit…

Running for President of the United States of America is 71 year old John McCain. He is Chairman of the IRI (International Republican Institute), a non partisan organization which promotes far right Republican foreign policy agenda. The research used by BU for this blog describes the IRI as a ‘cloak and dagger operation’. McCain’s posture towards Cuba and Venezuela is unforgiving. Many of his advisers on Latin American Affairs are Cuban Americans from Florida. The big question which comes to mind is: What if John McCain becomes President of the USA? What will be his foreign policy towards Venezuela?

Is it not interesting to observe that the islands of the English speaking Caribbean cannot show solidarity on any single issue? They talk about a One Foreign Policy but this has not been practiced i.e. some islands have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and others China. In the case of signing the PetroCaribe deal, some have signed and others have not. There are other examples. What happens with Dominica when the USA unleashes the full wrath of its fury under a McCain presidency? Dominica should remember that the USA controls or wield great influence within many of the global funding agencies.

As far as the PetroCaribe is concerned, we believe the offer to sign-up for the PetroCaribe deal is tempting but there is the world politics which shrouds the deal. Does Barbados want to be a mouse at the fair Mr. Lashley?

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23 responses to “PetroCaribe:The Cat & Mouse Game”

  1. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    As far as we in PDC are concerned one of the biggest sets of national problems that we in Barbados have is the Economics ideology, philosophy and psychology and its political legal practice here in Barbados, regionally and internationally.

    Thus, Mr. Chavez , ALBA and the Petro-Caribe Initiative, and Mr. Lashley and his suddenly, very vocal position that Barbados should accede to the Petro-Caribe Initiative, are NOT even among our biggest national problems.

    And with the Economics system and its close relative – the financial system – of the world once again staring serious crisis in the face, we esp. of the masses and middle classes of Barbados and the wider world are going to face even greater political, social, material and financial problems than now if such a crisis actually comes about.

    Too, for us in Barbados it is the Economic and financial systems and their surrogates like TAXATION, INTEREST RATES, MAKING PERSONS REPAY THEIR OWN MONIES, INSTITUTIONALLY SPEAKING, MORTGAGES, EXCHANGE RATE PARITIES WITH THE BARBADOS DOLLAR, WORK SYSTEMS, etc, that have been continuing to cause some of the biggest and deepest-rooted national problems for the masses and midle-classes of people in Barbados.

    Thus, as we in PDC seek to win the government in the future we are conscious of the need for serious workable solutions to such gigantic national problems. That is why such a government will, et al, Abolish TAXATION; ABOLISH INTEREST RATES; MAKE INSTITUTIONAL LOANS FOR PRODUCTIVE PURPOSES NON-REPAYABLE; ABOLISH MORTGAGES; ABOLISH ALL EXCHANGE RATES PARITIES WITH THE BARBADOS DOLLAR; AND CREATE NATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS ENTERPRISES.

    So just as PDC seeks solutions to these massive, dehumanizing economic and financial problems in Barbados, so do Mr. Chavez and Mr. Lashley in their own ways seek solutions to such problems whether they are here or elsewhere.

    PDC

  2. notesfromthemargin Avatar
    notesfromthemargin

    David,

    We should stay as far away from the PetroCaribe deal as possible. We have written several articles on the subject, but in a nutshell all it will do in increase the national debt on our balance sheet, and offer no relief in terms of price.

    Also given Venezuela’s territorial ambitions with Bird Island and Guyana which are openly hostile to Caricom interests it would be ludicrous to place ourselves at the mercy of the Venezuelan government.

    NO NO NO to PetroCaribe!

    Marginal

  3. Tony Hall Avatar
    Tony Hall

    I agree. We should stay far from the Petro-Caribe deal

  4. Tell me Why Avatar
    Tell me Why

    I sense I smell a rat. I hope that the rat don’t spread lepto. This Petro Caribe deal will allow us to purchase petrol at a small cost and repay within 5 years. This sounds like a BOLT AGREEMENT my friends, the only things it will be an on-going cost since we will be purchasing oil regularly.

  5. Tell me Why Avatar
    Tell me Why

    …..small cost and repay within 25 years.

  6. PI VIEW Avatar
    PI VIEW

    It was with interest that I noted that neither the VOB (Voice of Barbados ) news nor the Nation Newspaper found this call from MP H. Lashley to be new worthy. It in fact represented a clear departure from his current parties position on the matter. Instead ,VOB picked out the fact that he warned government to be weary of the block that some civil servance may put in the way of their social development program. What do we really have here for called “the media”?

  7. Adrian Hinds Avatar
    Adrian Hinds

    Petro Caribe is a stupid arrangement. Financing current consumption on credit and not at a locked in and significantly reduced price make no sense for the purchaser, and gives unnecessary advantages to the supplier . Also, given the Geopolitical mind games of the supplier i would stay very very far away from anything that gives this supplier any leeway into our economy. When Chavez comes a calling for a favour as is demonstrated through out Latin America, he does not play nicely when rebuffed.

  8. Green Monkey Avatar
    Green Monkey

    PDC Said:

    And with the Economics system and its close relative – the financial system – of the world once again staring serious crisis in the face, we esp. of the masses and middle classes of Barbados and the wider world are going to face even greater political, social, material and financial problems than now if such a crisis actually comes about.

    Coincidentally just came across the letter snipped below while surfing the net. (The Council of Canadians is a group making the case for Canadian sovereignty and having the Canadian people retain control over the sale and use of Canada’s resources – which is basically running contrary to the current globalisation/free trade trend. Their website is http://www.canadians.org .)

    OPEN LETTER TO THE COUNCIL OF CANADIANS.

    MARCH 15, 2008.

    Dear Friends,

    As a CoC member from the beginning, may I point out that the time to stop the useless handwringing, the complaints, articles and books on the effects, and start disclosing the real, easily proven, ideologies and theories driven reasons for the ongoing destruction of the Earth, democracy and the human race, is long overdue ?

    The scriptures for global colonization and enslavement are being taught in our universities as the “theory of neoclassical market economics”, which has now become the biggest crime wave in history, destroying the Earth, and killing tens of millions every year with the perceived power of imaginary monies, created from the air, yet remains unquestioned and untouchable, while all the screams, protests and other forms of pointless opposition are being directed at politicians and governments, who are nothing more than puppets on strings, controlled by an international power elite.

    There’s no such thing as “monetary efficiency”. Its presently used definition as the “largest profits for the least monetary inputs”, used by economists and politicians, is a fraud, causing incredible damage. The only humanly and environmentally acceptable definition of economic efficiency is the physical: “The most work done with the least resource/energy inputs”. Yet, by using the false concept of monetary economic efficiency, the pseudo priesthood of economists are now leading the world into self destruction with the distorted quotations of Adam Smith’s “invisible hand of self interest” theory , and the worthless and also fraudulent, GDP, Growth and Productivity figures.

    SNIP

    The textbook definition of economics is: “The science for the management and distribution of scarce resources” . As all resources are physical realities, all economic calculations must be based on physical laws and measurements. Monetary values are, often violence induced, infinitely variable, temporary perceptions, set by speculators to alter and corrupt the physical dimensions of trade goods for the purpose of profits through extortion and theft, therefore can not be used for economic calculations.

    The survival of all life forms depends, for every second of their existence, on the conversion of resources into, and the control of certain forms of energy.

    Wealth is the temporary control of energy. Wealth can not be created, only taken from other sectors, the environment and the future. This is an unbreakable physical law, not an ideological theory

    From the beginning of history, power elites have been brainwashing people with the use of religions and ideologies as economic theories for the justification of violence for colonization, enslavement, and the destruction of ecological systems for the “creation of wealth”, into their own pockets.

    The strongest and most dangerous weapon of global colonization is the now deregulated money creation power by banks, in selected countries. With bank deregulation money has become a weapon, and licence, to control energy, issued by a special interest sector for the enhancement of its own powers As many of us have predicted during the fight against the FTA, it had little to do with trade. The main purpose of these treaties, disguised as “agreements”, is the destruction of democracies, resource control and colonization with the free movement of imaginary capital.

    Full letter posted here:

    For a good understanding as to what the author of the above letter is complaining about re. the problems inherent in “money creation by banks,” watch the video “Money as Debt” (www.moneyasdebt.net ), You can view it on Google Video here (click the topmost link) in the search results at the link below: http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=money+as+debt&sitesearch=

    Also for a more complete and indepth explanation watch the documentary “The Money Masters”. You can get the DVDs here http://www.themoneymasters.com , or watch it online here: http://www.heyokamagazine.com/HEYOKA.12.%20MoneyMasters.htm

    From Paul Grignon, the producer of “Money as Debt”: Money created as interest-bearing bank credit is a magic trick, a fraud – now 3 centuries old; one that very few people have seen through despite, or rather because of, its utter simplicity.

    It is my intention to make this mysterious debt-money system comprehensible to everyone. It is also my intention to foster sufficient understanding of the problems with this money system that citizens will be motivated to join the monetary reform movement and/or create local alternatives to the global monetary system – a system in which most of the productive people of the world are collectively chained to an ever-increasing and perpetually unpayable debt.

    This is a system designed for elite control of the people by those who have given themselves the privilege of creating money. It is also, I believe, a system that is designed for catastrophe. As the movie explains, there can be no sustainable civilization without a sustainable money system.

    http://paulgrignon.netfirms.com/MoneyasDebt/ProducersComments.html

  9. Adrian Hinds Avatar
    Adrian Hinds

    Interesting article, I have never seen it before, nor did i know of the existence of a such a group in Canada. It is not even surprising to me that my views on economics and economists, statistics, and studies verse reality and real observations are not dissimilar to the views express in the article. Any observant person, who constantly questions things can opine as i have and as this article and author asserts. No wonder Peter Wickham, and Thomas Gresham insults, name calling and attempts at put downs do not phase me the least bit.

    On the penchant for these two (Wickham & Gresham) to quickly label immigration concern of Barbadians as xenophobic and or racist, even Barack Obama was force to recognize, that to label the race resentments of white Americans as misguided or even racist, without recognizing they are grounded in legitimate concerns widens the racial divide and blocks the path to understanding.

    “So when (white Americans) are told to bus their children to a school across town,” he said, “when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed; when they’re told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds.”

    I hope that people like these two have little if any influnce on Barbados immigration policy.

  10. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    With many of the old and decrepit aspects of this political, social, material and financial order in Barbados certain to remain intact under this DLP Government, there has to be a clear understanding by Barbadians that this DLP Government as well as the BLP Opposition are truly incapable of helping deliver the masses and middle classes from out of the depression and misery that they face on a daily basis in this country. Just a case in point, this DLP has long said it will bring down the cost of living in Barbados. Now that it has formed the government, we are seeing that it will NOT ease the burden of this horrendous cost of living, simply because it is resorting to old, tried and tested methods that have in the past starkly failed to bring down the cost of living in Barbados. One does NOT have to be a genius to realize that the neither the DLP nor the BLP possesses the new ideas, approaches and methods that are necessary for the bringing down of the cost of living!!

    Moreover, we in PDC sometimes get the distinct impression that the leaders and main players of both DLP and the BLP think that they can continue in the forseeable future monopolising the political and governmental thinking, planning and direction of our country. And, of course, they are some other people and entities in Barbados that believe so. But all those aforementioned people are wrong, and totally wrong at that!! For, as with almost every instance of political, commercial, industrial and financial monopolization in any of the political, commercial, industrial, and financial sectors in Barbados, there are times when either the monopolies will over-reach themselves to their own grave and terminal disbenefit/loss, or will face other serious forms of competition that will “force” them to restructure in order to continue surviving in the present form or that will “force” them to evolve into other forms of dis/organizations. The least monopolization of the affairs of Barbados the better!!

    Finally, we in PDC realize that Barbados is at a juncture whereby the beginning of the end of DLP and BLP is happening!! But unlike ALL other types of monopolies – other than the state itself – in Barbados that have ONLY been able to survive long enough ultimately because of political support and inputs from many political sources – the executive, legislature, judiciary, trades unions, credit unions, etc. – the DLP and the BLP will NOT survive ever so much longer because for so many reasons they continue to lose and will eventually lose the political support of the masses and the middle classes of people of Barbados . Any party in Barbados that wilfully or recklessly refuses to support or be a part of any reasonable progressive people-centered local, regional or international initiatives SIMPLY BECAUSE OF WHO THE CREATORS OF SUCH INITIATIVES ARE AT GIVEN POINTS IN TIME, AND AT THE SAME TIME ARE UNABLE TO PROVIDE ANY BETTER PROPOSITIONS THAN THOSE WORTHWILE ONES THAT ARE ADVANCED BY SUCH INITIATIVES, deserves in any instance to lose the political support of those major segments of people.

    PDC

  11. David Avatar
    David

    Green Monkey the views expressed in the letter have provided food for thought. This view will never be found in our media. If this is true are we not well on our way to doomsday? How can the developing world fight against this monster call wealth and power which is controlled by the rich countries of the world?

  12. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    “How can the developing world fight against this monster call wealth and power which is controlled by the rich countries of the world?”

    For a start, David, we must delink from the toilet paper which is called the $US.

    The US dollar is not, and in reality has not been since Bretton Woods, an asset backed currency deserving of our faith in entrusting our financial well being.

    Study the Bear Stearns fiasco and bail out, it tells you everything you need to know about the corrupt , stinking mess to which we are intimately enmeshed.

    The Federal Bank, a private club of the banking elite, agree to lend J P Morgan $35 billion, as a non-recoverable loan, to take over the carcase of Bear Stearns, a bank overwhelmed by worthless securities, albeit given Triple A ratings by Standard and Poor and Moody’s.

    This transference of risk and responsibility from the elite, whose only intent was profit without accountability, to the taxpayer through a further devalued dollar, by the issuance of more worthless bits of paper, i.e. our dollars, would be a crime in any other scenario.

    The justification, we the plebs are told, is to protect the banking system.

    Since when did banks deserve special exemption from the results of their avaricious and foolhardy schemes?

    Why do we have to pay in devalued currency, when the rich look like losing their shirts?

    Let the lot of them suffer the losses of their hyper-valued paper shuffling now the chickens are roosting.

    The whole economic system is rotten, let it fall, and then honest practice and value will prevail.

  13. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    The above blogger who blogged (in part) “it is my intention to make this mysterious debt-money system comprehensible to everyone. It is also my intention to foster sufficient understanding of the problems with this money system that citizens will be motivated to join the monetary reform movement and/or create local alternatives to the global monetary system – a system in which most of the productive people of the world are collectively chained to an ever increasing unpayable debt”, we say to you go full steam ahead, especially if you are based in Barbados. You are obviously a very critical thinker and reader with regard to these kinds of affairs and issues, and believe it you will be guaranteed our fundamental support once we can see that you are actually undertaking such critical efforts.

    Also, PDC has, since 2005, been getting quite a lot of moral and political support from many persons in Barbados and from a few persons living overseas in relation to many of those policies and measures we have that themselves relate to the bringing about of a new political, social, material and financial order for Barbados. And many of these policies and measures like THE ABOLITION OF TAXATION; THE ABOLITION OF INTEREST RATES, THE ABOLITION OF MOTOR VEHICLE INSURANCE, THE MAKING OF INSTITUTIONAL LOANS FOR PRODUCTIVE PURPOSES NON-REPAYABLE; THE REFORM OF THE HIRE PURCHASE REGIME IN BARBADOS; SUBSTANTIAL REFORM OF OUR LAND AFFAIRS ( NO FOREIGNERS WILL BE ABLE TO “OWN” OUR LANDS – BUT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO LEASE THEM ON A RELATIVELY FIXED SHORT-MEDIUM TERM OF YEARS BASIS – UNDER A PDC REGIME ); AND MAKING CONSTITUENTS DEBATE AND PASS THE LAWS OF BARBADOS, have certainly also been generating significant interest among many, many people in Barbados and among some number of persons overseas. In regard of those persons overseas having an interest in our measures and policies, some time ago, when we were just SMFD, we even received an overseas telephone call from an adult male person with a very strong Canadian accent, and who claimed to be working with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), about our NO TAXATION policies and seeking our views on the subject of tax havens. While we were suspicious of the person’s real ultimate objective ( which was NOT spoken to between ourselves during the relatively short conversation), we still noted the presumed interest on his part in our SMFD and part of its whole organizational thrust.

    Finally, as many people as possible living in Barbados and in the wider Caribbean need to be made further aware of the profound dangers and inhuman cruelties of this elitist global political economic financial system that has its tentacles too in our Barbados and the said wider Caribbean, and also the need therefore to systematically and sustainably act, and esp. in collective ways, to assist in its eventual transformation from essentially such a brazenly elitist corporate exploitative oppressive one to a more people-centered social egalitarian merit based one.

    PDC

  14. David Avatar
    David

    Straight Talk we wonder if your comment is not simplistic from the point of view that you ignore that pension funds for example are placements within the banking system. Pension funds as you are aware affect rich and poor.

    The second point, we wonder if you are ignoring the fact that oil as a commodity is traded in US dollars.

  15. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    I am not ignoring the fact that oil is mainly traded in petrodollars, indeed US foreign policy is entirely driven by maintaining the status quo.

    Saddam abandoned the dollar in favour of the euro, Iran has established an oil bourse to globally trade oil in other currencies, Chavez will sell his oil (or lend it under Petrocaribe) for buttons if it tweaks Bush’s tail.

    Do you see a pattern emerging.

    The deal brokered by US with King Saud, ( the defence of his dynasty in exchange for KSA’s oil being traded in dollars) is coming under increasing strain as the fiat dollar plummets against the emerging euro.

    It seems to me the US gets its oil for free.
    That is, the two thirds which are imported.

    If say Kuwait sells a barrel of oil for US$100 what can it do with that piece of paper?

    Exchange it at a loss,
    Spend it on US imports,
    or invest in Wall Street,
    supporting the very corporations and banks that set up this virtuous (to the US) circle.

    As for Pension Funds, if they bought into the bubble of sub-prime mortgages, monoline derivatives etc., they should suffer the same fate.
    Their funds were misused chasing fantasy profits instead of true investment in production and services which would be wealth and job creating.

  16. David Avatar
    David

    If your vision is realized what of the fallout in the world’s financial market?

  17. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    I don’t need a crystal ball, David.

    I just objectively look at what is already happening globally, and disregard the reasons the system controlled media promote.

    As more people and nations accept that the system has feet of clay, and begin the move to an actual currency based on something other than Wall Street derivatives, the true value of our money will re-establish itself, albeit at a fraction of what we believe it is today.

    The outcome of the current economic meltdown, as it affects our cost of living and pensions, is very concerning.

    But what is really scary is what will be the reactions of the current elites to the severe erosion of their wealth, and through it, power.

    Prepare for the global bail out of the rich by taxpayer’s dollars, yours and mine.

    All on the flimsy pretext of sustaining the very system that caused the problem in the first place.

    So allowing them to carry on lending and charging interest on money that they do not have, or, as in the case of $US, does not exist.

    I believe energy will underpin the new currency and will be the basis of future global economy.

  18. David Avatar
    David

    Interesting conclusion indeed but one wonders if a crash of the world’s financial markets will be required to reconfigure as you are proposing. Why do we say this? China regarded as the economic superpower of our times and based on our research is a major creditor of the USA. How can the world dismantle the current structure if the economic power of the world is soaking up all the US dollars because they have become the leading supplier of goods and services around the world.

    Explain to us please!

    Digressing a little but all related right?

  19. Straight talk Avatar
    Straight talk

    You are correct in identifying China’s exposure to the falling dollar, brought about by their wholesale and successful adoption of the US’s globalisation policy of de- industrialisation.

    Holding a mountain of dollars may be a problem to China of how to extract their money carefully without destroying its value, however this a two-edged sword.
    China if it so wishes has the power to manipulate the dollar exchange rate, if political judgement outweighs their economic interest.

    A most precarious position for the US.

    Especially now, with this current financial turmoil.

    The keys to America’s wellbeing are not now held by the Fed, whose only response is to print more paper and cause further devaluation, but by recent and current enemies.

    China, Russia, Iran, an Al Qaeda threatened KSA and our own local stirrer Chavez.

    The common denominator is OIL.

    BTW. I am not an economist just an ordinary Joe, with an independent mind.

  20. Green Monkey Avatar
    Green Monkey

    BU asks:

    Green Monkey the views expressed in the letter have provided food for thought. This view will never be found in our media. If this is true are we not well on our way to doomsday? How can the developing world fight against this monster call wealth and power which is controlled by the rich countries of the world?

    I wish I had an easy answer, but as I see it, we are riding the back of the proverbial tiger and trying to figure out how to dismount without getting bruised and scraped or, even worse, eaten, and no ready solution appears at hand.

    It would be a mistake to expect that politicians (in Bim or overseas) are going to risk new economic policies contrary to the status quo until the system collapses completely, or is so near collapse that it is plainly evident to all that economic disaster is staring us in the face and some type of drastic reorganization of the world’s monetary and economic systems is unavoidable.

    Of course when things reach such a point, there is a good chance democracy will go out the window (as is already occurring in the USA) and we could find ourselves living in an Orwellian type nightmare, totalitarian world (those of us who survive anyway).

    One aspect of this current economic turmoil that is often overlooked, especially in the mainstream media, is the role that peaking world oil production is playing in intensifying the effect of the economic storms that are starting to swirl around us. If world oil production has peaked or is about to peak (as increasing numbers of energy analysts, oil industry veterans etc believe), the economic turmoil and consequent hardship and human suffering could be much more intense and long lasting than if we were just facing an economic crisis brought on by bad, poorly thought out economic and trade polices by central banks and politicians.

    Sorry to be so pessimistic, but I honestly don’t see any easy (or even not so easy) ways out for us at this stage except to ride out the storm and hope like hell that through it all we can manage to hang on to whatever life raft we manage to cobble together without getting washed overboard or without the raft sinking underneath us. Once the worst of the storm, so to speak, is over perhaps there is a possibility of some type of new and more equitable and sustainable system arising out of the old.

    Here is a snip from the blog of US author James Howard Kunstler who has written several books touching on the horrendous economic problems that will hit the US economy and the impact it will have on the quality of life once peaking of world oil production has become evident and oil and energy prices start skyrocketing upwards.

    Black Swans Everywhere

    SNIP

    The mortgage fiasco is still just gathering steam as it moves from the non-payment stage to the default and repossession level on the grand scale. Even the political wish to bail out feckless mortgage holders will stumble on the mammoth clerical task of administrating the process, especially since we’ve barely begun to sort out who actually holds the mortgages after they’ve been minced into a fine mirepoix of securities off-loaded onto countless dupe “investors” ranging from municipal funds in obscure corners of foreign nations to countless public employee retirement plans.

    No matter how the authorities try to “nationalize” the sucking chest wound of bad mortgages, the body of finance will flat-line — and the American public will get stuck with the bill from the intensive care unit. Those who, for some weird reason, continue to pay their way and meet their obligations, will be none too pleased to pay for misdeeds of the deadbeats and their banker-lenders. This portends a taxpayer rebellion, which may translate into a voter rebellion.

    It’s too bad the current presidential candidates have been unable to address the unfolding economic nightmare. Their collective silence on the matter suggests that they don’t have a clue what to say about it (my emphasis /GM). As the nightmare plays out and black swans flock in to blot out the sun, and the hedge funds come a’tumbling down, and more big banks blunder into black holes, and businesses big and small across the land shutter up their operations, and the unemployment rolls swell, and families are thrown out of their houses even when bailouts are supposed to be saving them (but the bureaucracy can’t get the paperwork done in time) — well now, they are going to be one pissed off bunch of people. What will they do at the conventions? Our outside the conventions?

    In the deeper background of all this is the all-important oil story that nobody in politics or the media wants to pay attention to (my emphasis /GM). Notice that in the fervid unloading of assets this past week, as investors dumped their positions in the commodities markets, the price of oil remained stubbornly above $100-a-barrel when it was all over on Thursday afternoon. Well, maybe they’ll ratchet down a little further this week, but the trend line will prove to continue remorselessly upward in the months ahead.

    Peak oil is for real. The supply can’t keep up with global demand, even if it dips in the USA. And more portentous sub-plots develop in the story every month. Export rates are falling at a steeper rate than depletion rates. The exporting nations are not only buying more cars and running more air-conditioners, they also need to use more energy to lift the oil they’ve got out of the ground.

    Another sub-plot is the fact that the equipment used world-wide to drill for oil and recover oil and move oil around the planet — all that equipment is now so old and rusty that it can barely do the job, and it is going to start failing altogether unless investments are made to replace it, which nobody is making.

    By the way, Americans blame the familiar private oil companies for all the trouble with oil in their lives — Exxon-Mobil, Shell, et al — but they don’t seem to know that oil nationalism is in the driver’s seat now. The old private “majors” are only producing five percent of the world’s oil. The rest is coming from the national companies — Aramco, Petrobras, Pemex, et blah blah — and the very operations of the oil markets are entering a phase of radical instability as they move away from auctioning their stuff on the futures markets and start making long-term favored customer contracts instead.

    The bottom line is that high prices for oil is hardly the only thing America has to worry about. Pretty soon the US will have to worry about getting the oil at any price — meaning, we’re in for shortages and supply disruptions sooner rather than later.

    Also unbeknownst to most of America, the financial markets reflect all this instability around the basic resource of oil because industrial economies like ours are set up in such a way that they can’t run without cheap and reliable supplies of the stuff. So the least little twitter in the reality-based world of peak oil means that everything to do with money and capital investment will naturally go batshit, since our expectations for increased wealth — i.e. “growth” — are predicated on the activities driven by oil.

    http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/03/black-swans-eve.html

    And here is another one:

    Blue Moon Economics
    by Kurt Kobb

    SNIP

    As for the high price of oil, it may indeed be due to high demand in Asia. But another cause may be slowing rates of discovery that have led many to conclude that a peak in the rate of world oil production may be no more than a decade away. And, as oil prices have risen, there has been a scramble to produce liquid fuel substitutes such as ethanol from sugar and corn and biodiesel from soy. This has led to higher demand and record prices for both corn and soy and to elevated prices for sugar. If the tightness in the oil market is due to an approaching oil peak, then the price trend in these energy crops is unlikely to abate soon.

    There is, of course, the central role of oil in the world economy and the financial implications that an oil peak would have. First and foremost, it would mean very high energy prices for as far as the eye can see. It could also mean financial turmoil for importing nations such as the United States, turmoil that may already be manifesting itself in the form of a credit crisis.

    Even the prices of crucial industrial metals such as copper, lead, nickel and zinc have risen sharply. Copper, for example, has risen from a low of 60 cents a pound at the beginning of the decade to a recent price of around $3.50. More worrisome are rare metals used in important consumer and business products and processes such as platinum used in catalytic converters in cars, indium used in LCD displays, and rhodium used for critical electrical contacts which have been up as much as 500 percent, 1,000 percent and 2,000 percent, respectively.

    All of this is supposed to stimulate supply and bring down commodity prices. But, this is simply not happening in the oil industry where large international oil companies have been unable to replace their oil reserves despite their high levels of exploration and development spending. As this new picture of harder-to-find oil has emerged, these companies have instead begun to focus on buying other oil companies and on buying back stock which, of course, does nothing to increase oil supplies. It is true that substantial oil resources remain underground in OPEC countries. But these countries have little incentive to produce much more oil than they do today. Why not leave reserves in the ground and get higher prices later as the money is needed?

    http://www.energybulletin.net/41832.html

  21. Pat Avatar
    Pat

    Straight Talk:

    I agree whole heartedly with your analysis. You do not have to be an economist to be knowledgeable about current affairs. One thing you forgot is that China early last year, started moving some of its money into Japanese yen, if you please. Iran started at the same time to move to the Euro. There was concern south of the border that Iran would convert all its US holdings because of Bush and his war agenda. This was not done but speculation was that new sales were in the Euro and with their own oil exchange, we know it is not US $ they are trading in.

    What concerns me is that after the Fed Reserve gave out all those millions, poor ordinary people did not get their foreclosed houses back. The money was not to help the populace but the banks. Now it seems that banks own all those houses and will become a big US landlord. The entire plicy is being ripped apart by analysts north of the border.

  22. Adrian Hinds Avatar
    Adrian Hinds

    Where are all the peak all enthusias? Where are all the Petro Caribe backers? Where are all the Chavez fans?

    http://www.Stratfor.com
    Although Venezuela is sweating over news of falling oil prices and the government has sworn to tighten its belt in 2009, Caracas has projected a total budget of $77.9 billion. This represents a 21.7 percent increase over the initial budget for 2008, which was $64 billion. However, the real total spending for 2008 went up to $85.1 billion as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s administration increased budget spending mid-year in response to higher oil prices. It also represents a higher reliance on oil revenue in the 2009 budget (as compared to the original 2008 budget) as a percentage of revenues, at 46.5 percent.

    Though Venezuela projected the price of oil to be $35 in 2008, they have opted for an assumption of a $60 barrel for 2009, as well as a projected growth rate of 6 percent. Lest the Venezuelans seem too much more prepared than Mexico, however, Venezuela is also banking on an oil output of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) — nearly 1 million bpd above the country’s actual output. Keeping up appearances by pretending to have a more productive energy industry than it actually has for a domestic audience is a possible explanation for the discrepancy. Perhaps the government has accounted for the inconsistency in a secondary, internal budget process.

    Venezuela will unquestionably have to tighten its spending habits even if the price of oil does not fall below $60 per barrel, because of how rapidly the budget expanded while prices were over $100 per barrel. The first to see cutbacks will be Chavez’s habit of promising expensive partnerships around the region. Spending will have to remain more focused on the already costly programs that dominate Venezuela’s domestic policy.

    Venezuela’s big-ticket items have included more than $6 billion worth of bond purchases from Argentina, a reported $6.7 billion dollars of aid to Bolivia (although the official reports indicate only $214 million) and a 200,000 bpd Petrocaribe program in which Venezuela subsidizes some 60 percent to 50 percent of Caribbean state oil imports. In addition, Venezuela has renovated and enlarged Cuba’s aged oil refinery in Cienfuegos.

    Beyond these projects — for which much of the money has already been spent — some proposed projects likely will get the axe. These include:

    A $23 billion South American gas pipeline (negotiations on the pipeline had already stalled in any case)
    A $5-10 billion, 300,000 bpd oil refinery in Ecuador, a joint project with Petroecuador
    A $1.2 billion, 100,000 bpd oil refinery in Argentina
    A $50 million, 10,000 bpd oil refinery in Dominica
    A trans-Caribbean pipeline designed to supply Cuba, Puerto Rico and Haiti
    A partnership with Brazil’s Petroleo Brasileiro to jointly develop Venezuela’s Orinoco oil fields and build a $4 billion, 200,000 bpd oil refinery in Brazil
    A project to build a 150,000 bpd oil refinery in Nicaragua, which has already been “postponed” for 10 years
    Venezuela’s projects with China — including the construction of refineries on Chinese soil and shipping low-quality crude halfway around the globe — may also be in danger, depending on how much of the costs China is willing to put up (probably not much).
    For both Venezuela and Mexico, the coming year will pose hardships. Though both have attempted to tighten their belts, pressing domestic needs have made it difficult for them to truly cut down their spending, despite falling oil prices. The shaky international capital market will make it extremely difficult for the two countries to get loans, especially as their financial situations deteriorate. Given Mexico’s critically important geographic position as a U.S. neighbor, the United States and the International Monetary Fund historically have bailed Mexico out — and likely will do so again. Venezuela, however, may be left in the cold.

    http://www.stratfor.com

  23. JC Avatar
    JC

    Interesting reading Adrian thanks; so what is left for Venezuela to do? In my opinion they will be the ones scrambling since they picked up Blivia’s firerage!

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