This morning, I delivered my first economic press conference for 2025, where I reported on Barbados’ 🇧🇧 economic performance in 2024 and the outlook for 2025 and into the medium-term. The main takeaways from the economic review are:
1. 4% real economic growth in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth, driven by a 10.7% rise in visitor arrivals from 2023, fuelled by strong tourism performance.
2. Inflation moderated to 1.4% (moving average) by the end of the year.
3. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% by September 2024, down from 8.3% a year prior.
4. Gross international reserves reached a record high of $3.2B in December 2024, providing 31.2 weeks of import cover.
5. Government recorded a fiscal surplus of $224.8M (1.5% of GDP) and a primary surplus of $774.1M (5.3% of GDP) for the first nine months of FY2024/25.
6. The financial sector remains strong, with credit growth and a decline in non-performing loans across banks and finance companies.
Looking ahead, growth is projected at 3 percent in 2025, with tourism, construction, and business services continuing to lead. Investments in renewable energy and digital infrastructure will support long-term sustainability. While global risks persist, Barbados remains well-positioned with strong reserves, prudent policies, and ongoing reforms.
2024 Economic Review – booming economy on the back of tourism
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95 responses to “2024 Economic Review – booming economy on the back of tourism”
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@Pachamama There is no argument on that point between you and I. Read my last point where I said that the future viability of Barbados’ economy will depend on services and research.
The reason is simple. Research and Development is one of the few areas where you can acheive global competitiveness with a small population, given that you need to reach scale.
Developing AI models is an R&D process. People marvel at the fact that DeepSeek only costs $6 million to develope. This might be true, however, Deepseek is a story about how science and technology research and education in China is much more broad and acessable in China than it is in the U.S.
The $6 million does not take into account the years of investment in Chinese science Education by the government and the open research culture that exists in Chinese business clusters. DeepSeek’s sucess comes after years of state and private investment in people and institutions.In the coming education reforms, I propose the creation of a center of excellence for science and technology (in a small country like Barbados you only need one.). It will take the best and brightest science students at the 5th and sixth form students and prepare them for the future so that when they reach Univesrsity level a culture of innovation already exists.
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@John A
Are you able to comment on item 6 above re the Governor’s remarks? To test his comment do we need to see the amount written off by the financial institutions?
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“Expert challenges debt reduction claims
A leading economist has cast doubt on Barbados’ reported debt reduction, suggesting the figures mask a concerning increase in external debt.
Professor Don Marshall, Director of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute for Social and Economic Studies (SALISES), argued that the country’s economic strategy requires urgent review to achieve genuine sustainability and inclusive growth.
He said the downward trend of the ratio “masks the upward tick in the country’s external debt position”.
“The stock of foreign exchange reserves,” Professor Marshall contended, “is largely borrowed. This is to be expected, as ours remain a country that is import-driven and in the grips of several intra-elite fractions whose horizons and investment choices are commercially oriented and not export – or production-driven.”
The SALISES director was commenting on the Central Bank’s economic review for 2024 that was presented during a press conference on Wednesday by Governor Dr Kevin Greenidge.
In that review, Dr Greenidge was adamant that when addressing the debt, one should not focus on its nominal value, but rather on the percentage of GDP which it represents.
He reported economic growth last year, describing it as robust, grounding his message on the key indicators.
Real growth increased to four per cent, the third consecutive year of economic improvement; inflation dropped by 1.4 per cent; unemployment fell to 7.1 per cent at the end of the third quarter compared with 8.3 per cent for the corresponding period in 2023; the primary surplus rose to 5.3 per cent of GDP; international reserves jumped to a record high of $3.2bn, an unprecedented increase of 184 per cent over the year; the current account deficit narrowed almost by half, moving from $1.1bn to $641m; and the debt-to-GDP ratio continued to contract, coming to 103 per cent by the end of the year.
“These indicators,” Professor Marshall admitted, “are positive, coming as they are, three years on from a Covid-19- induced contraction in growth of 16 per cent and a catastrophic loss of employment. From a growth and employment recovery standpoint, this trend will extend for another two years or so, barring any external shocks.”
But, sustainability was of greater concern to the SALISES head.
“Sustainability though, will come from a value-added transformation of the economy, which still remains largely reliant on the tourism sector. It has been the bane of several administrations to push past the limited diversification Barbados presents,” the university academic told Barbados TODAY.
He suggested that with a second two-thirds majority in Parliament, there was little stopping the government of the day from encouraging industrial and/or design-deepening that would lead to meaningful job opportunities that are less seasonal.
Professor Marshall advised that these jobs should also transcend the low technology, low-paid types that he contends currently characterise “bulk employment options for many outside the state sector”.
“If we are going to address the dignity of work, economic resilience, rising inequalities, and inclusive growth, then there is a need for a re-examination of the finance sector-led strategy that girds the IMF/BERT programme,” he pointed out.
“Ultimately, the positive report card speaks to a restoration of fiscal stability after the turbulence of COVID-19. However, the goal of pushing past the country’s limited diversification remains urgent and unmet. In a word, the new republic must be held to a higher standard of assessment, if the lives of ordinary Barbadians are to be transformed and the economy is to be diversified.”
“The conditional lending and development relationship,” he argued, “forged with the IMF are inimical to a determined effort to change tack in the direction of pursuing a deliberate industrial policy. For the deals we have made to effect fiscal discipline and ensure annual fiscal surpluses, we are constrained to engage in the kinds of state spending to oversee the growth of other economic sectors.”
He noted that Barbados has a determined industrial policy when it comes to tourism development – but that’s about all that will be accepted and tolerated by those monitoring and assessingthe island’s budgetary conduct.
Professor Marshall said that this republic is ripe and ready for a new discussion about economic transformation for the “precariousness” of the country’s economy, which makes it easily vulnerable to shocks “induced” by US President Donald Trump’s policies – as alluded to by Dr Greenidge, he said.
“Where he and I may differ, is how we go about building resilience and inclusive, sustainable growth. With the effects of COVID-19 receding in the background, we ought to craft policies that push past holding the tiller firm.”
“But it’s quite fine from the Fund’s point of view,” the leading economist added, “that we stay the course with finance sector-led growth, for the abiding assumption is that investors foreign and local, will flock to our shores to pursue business in the nascent sectors of our economy. In this, the miracle of development transformation will occur, and the State will be applauded for incentivising and enticing.”
“I happen to disagree,” the SALISES director declared. (EJ)”Source: BT
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@General
You see above academician Don Marshall agrees with concerns expressed by some BU commentators. When we peel away the standard economic KPIs there is more to discuss.
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Well General!
We agree in the main, from your last comment, though you tooo ignored the broader and deeper points about the total collapse of the West.
However, you seem still too wedded to a failed mis-education system. For that system can and will only do what it has in the past.
We will never know where genius will be found. Such cadres are more likely to be found elsewhere.
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Seven dead by murder in the first month! Seven by twelve equals 84!
This equation could at would be best explained as the growing and dire state of economy, this writer will proffer.
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“…the future viability of Barbados’ economy will depend on services and research.”
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This is correct, General, …and it also explains why we are doomed.Bushie already explained our challenge with services (tourism, retail, banking, health etc) given the history of the country, and the current transition from 500 years of FORCED subservience – which will obviously impact on the predisposition of enlightened young people to opt for such a way of life.
Research, creativity and innovation is a completely different ball game. However this calls for top quality LEADERSHIP – with the ability and VISION – to project well into the future….
This translates into long term STRATEGIC planning, where CONCEPTUAL objectives and targets are articulated, and highly focused initiatives are then implemented – to achieve these specific objectives.This kind of leadership is as far removed from Barbados as wisdom is from brassbowlery.
The most simple comparason is between China in the last 30 years, and the USA (or Brassbados)…
Whereas the latter have chosen POLITICAL / LEGAL / ECONOMIC resources to provide national leadership, China (and Japan and a few other enlightened countries) have focused on REAL LIFE SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS to provide such leadership – with appropriate results in R&D, as well as in trade, exports, wealth, and global influence.While our leaders focus on keeping themselves in ‘power’ by exploiting national resourses for political ends, REAL leaders create NATIONAL wealth – and are then RETAINED in office in order to CONTINUE to do so…
The chances of success in services and ‘research’ for Brassbados are approximately ZERO.
LOL…
Cave Hill’s pinnacle of ‘research’ is for big people, lauding their ‘degree’, to locate old newspaper clippings to read on VOB every damn day….
This would have been a GREAT research project – for a second form history class at any high school….
Steupsss… We can’t even find a Bajan to run the little shiite QEH ..or to improve the transportation chaos bout here….
What R&D what!!CURSED!!!!
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@ David
Item 6 would not concern me too much as it relates to private sector banks as they have fairly rigid guidelines with regard to bad debt allocation. They usually have an allowance that overstates the bad debt and then corrects it at year end when the audit is done.
Government however does the opposite and without an audit, these uncollectables stay showing as receivables on their books, thereby making these entities appear to be in better position than they are. When the Governor makes his report he does so on the information furnished to him by the state entities. So imagine if a bunch of these have not had audits for years how accurate do you think his report is? Also don’t say like Sinkyuh that he has faith in his in-house figures, because in the absence of audited annual financials those in-house numbers are comfort only to a fool. in-house numbers are used ONLY to get you from one annual audit to another.
Let’s look at the golden goose for example we had recently the cricket. We fixed roads, landscaped roundabouts etc for the cricket. Can the governor for example say what net income was made from cricket? NO HE CANT. This also is not his fault because the way we capture data, this info is not available. So if we spend $5 million to collect $2 million we don’t know. To be honest I pay little attention to the Governors reports now because they lack too much information and audited financial reports to be accurate. So yes tourism receipts are up that’s good, but you see those debt and GDP figures he qoutes, take them with a grain of salt. Also remember our debt is down from historic levels due to the debt restructuring. What we have not looked at though in these reports is what effect has the debt restructuring had on entities like the NIS and the economy on a whole? In other words what have we gained if state debt dropped by 1 billion but the NIS assets also fell by a billion? I now look at the central bank report as a list of positive highlights which omit the other side of the coin.
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Expect fewer Canadian tourists.
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doom and gloom.
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@David January 29, 2025 at 9:10 pm ““Good day, I am hearing and reading that we are doing so well. How come we can not get any milk?
No Bajan milk when I shopped at 2 thus afternoon. So I bought some Guyanese reconstituted thing made from milk powder and with added vitamins. I would have preferred local milk. Maybe all the local milk has been sold to the many cruisers escaping from the cold?
There were enough eggs, but I don’t like eggs much so I only bought 6. I don’t like eggs because whenever I go to eat an egg I wonder about that first desperate human seeing something coming out of a bird’s botsy and who said “I’ll eat that,” sp 6 should last e a month.
Not much pork was available either, so I bought none, although hams were still plentiful.
All that said I got everything I truly needed, but not necessarily the brands I was looking for.
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We have another plane crash in America involving a small executive plane. It came down in the vicinity of a shopping mall.
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Don’t buy a single Bond or TBIll until the plethora of missing reports is significantly improved.
Here endeth today’s lesson. -
Confession time again
I tried to listen to and to read what is said about our economy.
Honestly, I find myself unable to understand anything. Perhaps, this is because I do not believe any number produced by our government officials. My time would be better spent if I could find the hat they pull these numbers out of.I noticed that the guys I depend to do the crunching for me have a lot to say and then they add “These numbers tough to accept. We have no baseline”.
I am now force to accept cuhdear’s analysis … milk in short supply, a few eggs still in place (a bit surprise that it took her 90 years to learn that eggs came out of a chicken botsy – talk about a slow learner; she is slower than I am), pork is in short supply, but you can get a few hams.
Would have been good if she had given a short summary (a) all is well (b) things though (c) it cannot get any worse or (d) I deading.Blogmaster! Cuhdear needs a page so that she can give the economic review.
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Murdaaah! That is the best laugh I had since Donald Trump called Spain a Brics nation and threatened to deal with them.
I thought Cuhdear was commenting on the wrong blog until I realised there was no blog where it fit.
Now it’s back to watching Rxckstxr animal videos for another laugh! I swear, being called bird brain was not the insult Lorenzo thought it was.
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[…] conflict between these two large countries could impact the economy of Barbados which is currently ‘booming’ on the back of tourism. Potentially Mexico will get […]
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Excessive reserves costing taxpayers
By Ryan Walters As Barbados confronts a staggering BDS$943 million deficit for fiscal year 2024/2025, the recent report from the Central Bank described a seemingly prosperous financial performance for 2024. Yet, beneath the optimistic portrayal lies a crucial issue impacting Barbadians: the Government’s policy of amassing excessive foreign reserves, which inflicts undue financial strain on taxpayers.
While many questions remain about the impact of inflation on citizens and the performance of the agriculture, tourism and construction sectors, one area worth examination is the current policy of the Government to hold excessively high foreign reserves which comes at a cost to taxpayers.
As of December 2024, The Central Bank announced that the gross international reserves escalated to BDS$3.184 billion, equivalent to 31.2 weeks of import cover. The figure vastly exceeds the internationally recognised benchmark of 12 weeks resulting in a surplus of 19 weeks. Given that these reserves are primarily derived from loans with institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the associated interest payments are burdens borne by the Barbadian public.
In Extract 1, at December 2024 the Government is holding BDS$1.959 billion more than the international benchmark.
The close to BDS$3.2 billion is borrowed money and therefore interest has to be paid. This means that Barbadians are paying dearly to facilitate Government’s self-imposed policy.
In Extract 2, is the estimated approximate average interest rate that the Government has been paying on an annual basis because of the varying interest rates for different loans.
Using Extract 2, there are two main observations: 1. The cost of debt to Barbadians has risen by 65 per cent since the 2018/2019 Debt Restructuring Programme, although bold claims were made and defended by this Government that they were pursuing cheaper debt. The estimated average interest rate of 4.96 per cent is now above that of the previous administration 2013 – 2017 period of 4.72 per cent (when using similar analysis).
2. Taxpayers must foot the interest bill for the significant excesses the Government hold in reserves.
Using this estimated current cost of borrowing from Extract 2, the Government is expected to pay in the region of BDS$97.2 million in interest payments this year on the excess of foreign reserves it currently holds above the 12-week global benchmark. This will continue into future years if the Government maintains its current policy.
Collectively, this policy has cost taxpayers around BDS$373 million since 2019. (See Extract 3).
The questions Barbadians need answers to are: 1. What is the justification for maintaining reserves amounting to close to double the required benchmark given that it is borrowed money? Could a balance of 15 or 18 weeks not suffice?
2. Has the administration assessed the financial repercussions of this policy on Barbadians, who are already navigating high taxes and an elevated cost of living?
3. To what extent will the Government continue its borrowing spree without establishing alternative revenue-generating strategies beyond imposing additional taxes on citizens?
The Democratic Labour Party urges transparency and accountability from the Government on these pressing issues. We stand firm in advocating for policies that prioritise the financial well-being of Barbadians, ensuring the economic strategies do not further encumber hardworking citizens.
Senator Ryan Walters is the Democratic Labour Party’s spokesman on energy, small business and entrepreneurship and housing and candidate for St Michael North West.
Source: Nation
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@David Ryan Walters is simply wrong. Noy only that, he doesn’t even know what a fiscal deficit is. Barbados is actually running a large primary surplus (before interest payments) and a healthy overall surplus (after interest pyaments). In fact in this financial year Barbados is on course to run it’s largest primary surplus since Insependence.
Those are the facts.
The 943 Million which Ryan walters refers to in called the financing requirement for the year. This includes amortization costs which was driven up by the debt for climate swap, which was imediately covered by the swap itself.
Tell Ryan he can give me a call if he needs an economic advisor. We can’t afford to have the so called “government in waiting” flying blind. -
@General
Any disadvantages to a small country like Barbados running a medium to aggressive primary surplus?
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Walters is likely advised by Jepter Ince 😃😃
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@David Really, a primary surplus represents a form of “government savings” which in itself reduces the financing requirement which I mentioned earlier. If you were runing a primary deficit the financing required would be much larger, forcing government to impose new taxes or drastically cut spending. Based on what the last saw the financing for this FY (ending on March 31) will be comfortably met by the government.
This brings me to your question. A primary surplus that is “too large” would be a problem if the econony is in recession or heading into one. In that scenario, the government should relax it’s fiscal stance to give households and businesses breathing space.
For example, at the start of covid, the government met with the IMF and agreed to a much smaller primary surplus of 1% of GDP (this was just under $100 million). After covid, the primary surplus target went back up to 4%. In this fiscal year the government is on track to far exceed that target because of extra revenue gained from the adoption of the global minimum tax on Companies and an increase in vat receipts from higher economic activity.
So going into this year’s budget season, the government will have a larger surplus than it expected when the estimates were passed.
A larger fiscal surplus might allow you to engage in greater Capital spending ( Hospitals, Water mains and reservoirs, Roads in the Scotland district and St.Thomas, School plants, public transport, garbage collection.etc)
The Biggest issue with Barbados is, even when the money is there we don’t often do a great job at Capital spending. Public investment is not executed by official in a timely manner. -
@General
Thanks for the economics 101. You are comfortable government has not cut back on spending to bolster the primary surplus number?
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A far larger economy than Barbados is in shit.
Worth a listen.
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Danger of artificial borrowing
THERE IS A TIME when a business moves from operating in credit and becoming perpetually operating in debit.
One time I had a customer whose business operated well and he was making profit. All of a sudden, his business showed increased turnover but also began to operate with an increasing overdraft.
Now there can be many reasons for this. Reduced profit margins is a possibility. He can be pricing his goods at a loss. I called him in and we discussed some scenarios that might be the reason. All of the scenarios we touched on, but they were already considered by him. I visited his business and looked around. Nothing.
I told him that the problem seems to be in his stock and he reluctantly agreed and promised to keep an eye on it. Lo and behold, he managed to notice that the lock on his stockroom was strange.
That was the problem. On weekends, workers had switched his locks on the stockrooms, replaced them with their own locks and raided his business in a sly way, replacing his locks for the morning operation.
‘Image of foreign exchange’
That lesson has never been lost on me. Can our profit be raided by the reduction of our earning stream of various incomes being replaced by various borrowings, resulting in our overdraft needing to be supported by loans that are destined to support the ‘image of foreign exchange’?
We do not have foreign exchange. What we have is an image of foreign exchange. (We cannot use it to build a stadium.) Just as we have Artificial Information that can rise up and take us over as we lose control and eventually destroy our standard of living, as we become paupers. What will happen when our overdraft rises to the point when our bank manager – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – calls us to account? I have many times advised that the IMF is a bank. We are living an artificial life and just as how Artificial Intelligence may assume arms and destroy mankind, so one day (coming soon?) the bank manager may knock.
Now I am not trying to be a ‘Poppit of doom’, but I am asking when are we going to repay the vast sums borrowed to support the standard of living that is bequeathed to our young people? What are the plans? No, we have tourism. But tourism is barely able to support the combined effort of our day-to-day pickings plus what we are borrowing.
What do we have in the baggy? You mean the young ones have to take the reins while we who did the borrowing ride off happily or comfortably into a sunrise or a sunset?
The problem is that a reduced standard of living cannot be envisaged by the present psyche of Barbadians when we consider the heights “we have attained” and our reputation Caribbean-wise, or indeed on the world stage. (Moses went up into the mountain in sandals.) Now God is telling him to take off his shoes for there is fire on the ground; “or let me cut them off”.
We are entering a phase where there is little room for error or to manoeuvre and the avenues of assistance are small or non-existent. We now see where more powerful nations are put to the sword and have to withdraw into their shell, and we have to ask what chances do we have of surviving without sucking salt.
Catching at shadows
Do not think that we have a free hand in expanding or engaging tourism. I have been saying all along that our hands are circumscribed by the net benefit accruing to tourism by its structure and the amount of control we have over the inflow of dollars. What leeway do we have of trading off some tourism dollars and removing the locks on our stockrooms placed by outsiders? We even need the help of the foreign banks in order to make a little dent in the interest payments of some of our debts.
It seems that we are catching at shadows.
The coming years are going to be hard. I am referring to the external environment. More so, it will catch us with our pants down without even much of an opposition voice in Parliament, although Barbados on the whole has little wiggle room on the world stage in this new dispensation but to go with the tide, although it may be downward.
My advice is to lie low and try not to appear in anybody’s eyeline for the time being. Like Guyana, we may find oil.
Harry Russell is a banker.
Source: Nation
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Did @General read this article? It is more than looking at the numbers.
How I’ll be unemployed by year-end
THIS WEEK, I decided to do something different on the heels of news that has rocked the technology and finance world.
By the time this article hits the press, it will be one week thereabouts since the release of the third version of the Chinese-produced open source generative artificial intelligence (AI) solution, DeepSeek.
From all reports, at the time it was at least equal to OpenAI’s o1 version of ChatGPT (the best that it has to offer). Some tests revealed that it was faster and also used more efficient parametres than ChatGPT. Basically, this meant that, upon its release, this version of DeepSeek was the best fit in the marketplace for advanced logic-based tasks. One is better able to write complex code or produce creatively written content than ever before.
DeepSeek hurt many of America’s best producers of generative AI platforms overnight upon its upgrade in more ways than you’d think.
Outside of what I’ve said before, its greatest impact was showing the investment world – and therefore stock markets – that scale did not mean prowess. In other words, DeepSeek is more powerful than anything ever produced before, yet its training and build costs are estimated to be less than US$10 million versus the billions of dollars burnt by the market leading OpenAI in its development of its most recent ChatGPT models.
Recent convention has been broken and therefore an emphasis on innovation outweighs the size of any war chest. It also means that a lot of what I do in the economics world is about to become redundant sooner than you’d think.
I kind of expected it. However, to prove this point, I opted to train DeepSeek to replicate my writing style; something that would generally be difficult to replicate because my thought process breaks convention.
DeepSeek’s interpretation
From the following paragraph, DeepSeek will give its take, in my voice, on the recent Central Bank of Barbados’ report on the country’s economic performance in 2024. While these may not be my succinct takes, it’s indeed written in Deepseek’s interpretation of my writing style.
Maybe you might agree that my job is on the line. Ethically, I’ll continue to use generative AI to edit my work but for this exercise, I uploaded the economic report after the training session.
Let’s hear now from DeepSeek (in my voice).
Barbados’ economy, on paper, had a standout year in 2024. Growth hit four per cent, tourism arrivals broke records, and unemployment dipped to 7.1 per cent. But as any Bajan knows, paper doesn’t tell the whole story. Behind the glossy headlines, cracks linger – cracks that could widen if we keep prioritising short-term wins over long-term stability.
Take tourism. Yes, long-stay arrivals jumped 10.7 per cent, thanks to a flood of American visitors and events like the T20 World Cup. But dig deeper, and the picture splinters. Big hotels thrived – revenue per room soared 12.6 per cent – while small, Bajan-owned rentals saw earnings drop nearly ten per cent. This isn’t growth; it’s gentrification in paradise.
There’s a catch
Remember the 1990s, when St James’ coastlines were dotted with family-run guesthouses? Today, half are gone, replaced by foreign-owned resorts. The more we cater to these giants, the fewer opportunities locals have to profit from tourism. Without policies like Jamaica’s “Community Tourism Fund” – which taxes big hotels to subsidise small operators – we’ll wake up in a decade where every beachfront villa is owned by someone from Miami or Montreal.
Then there’s the much-hyped debt swap.
Government swapped $595 million in old debt for a cheaper loan, saving $220 million in interest. Smart? Maybe. But there’s a catch: meet strict water management targets or face penalties. Given our leaky pipes and underfunded regulators, this feels like setting a cake in front of a toddler and saying, “Don’t touch it.” Barbados loses 40 per cent of its treated water to leaks – a problem ignored for decades. Miss those targets – and we likely will – and the penalties could mean cuts to healthcare or schools. Sound familiar? It should. This is how austerity creeps in, dressed up as “fiscal responsibility.”
Meanwhile, the construction sector’s 7.1 per cent growth looks impressive – until you see what’s being built. Luxury hotels and cricket stadiums might boost GDP today, but what about tomorrow? Agriculture shrank 1.1 per cent last year, with milk production collapsing 22 per cent.
We’re paving over farmland to build condos while importing $600 million worth of food annually.
It’s madness. Look at Dominica: after Hurricane Maria, they prioritised organic farming and now export $50 million in produce yearly. Barbados could do the same – if we stopped betting the farm on concrete.
Jobs numbers also hide uncomfortable truths.
Yes, unemployment fell, but salaries in the global business sector dropped 15.6 per cent. For example, nurses and teachers aren’t blind – they see Canada and the United Kingdom offering triple the pay. Jamaica’s losing 80 per cent of its medical graduates to overseas jobs; Barbados isn’t far behind. Queen Elizabeth Hospital is already stretched; imagine it with ten per cent fewer staff.
And let’s talk energy. We still import 90 per cent of our power. Solar farms get headlines, but action is glacial. The 2019 National Energy Policy aimed for 100 per cent renewables by 2030. Today? We’re at four per cent. When oil prices spike again – and they will – we’ll burn through foreign reserves faster than a tourist goes through sunscreen. Aruba, by contrast, shifted to 40 per cent renewables in five years by slashing red tape for household solar.
No Plan B
The elephant in the room? Our dependence on the US. Nearly 80 per cent of tourism growth comes from Americans. If their economy stumbles, ours topples. Yet there’s no Plan B – no push to attract Europeans turned off by overpriced Spain, or Brazilians seeking safe, English-speaking getaways. Niche markets like eco-tourism? Untapped. Grenada’s underwater sculpture park draws 30 000 divers yearly.
Barbados’ coral reefs? Mostly souvenirs for cruise passengers.
So where do we go from here? First, tax big hotels to fund grants for local guesthouses – copy Jamaica’s model. Second, fix water infrastructure before penalties hit. Third, subsidise rooftop solar for households, not just mega-resorts. Fourth, pay nurses and teachers wages that match their value, before they all emigrate. Fifth, diversify tourism – market our culture, not just our beaches. Crop Over isn’t just a party; it’s an opportunity waiting for savvy investors.
Progress is possible, but not if we keep chasing quick fixes. Barbados’ economy isn’t a cricket match – there’s no “time out” when the next crisis hits. Build resilience now, or pay the price later. The choice is ours: keep swinging for sixes while the stumps crumble, or dig in and play the long game.
Jeremy Stephen is an economist/ financial analyst with extensive experience in private equity and economic consulting in Barbados and the region.
Email: economistfeedback@gmail.com
Source: Nation
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LOL
More and more of our media writers seem to be following BU Boss…The Jamaica & T&T oil thing comes as no surprise. The demons controlling things have a CLEAR MISSION – to drive us all into subservience..
So Barbados’ tourism has been taken over by ‘foreign investors’ – driving us into increasing debt EVEN AS TOURISM flourishes…
Jamaica’s bauxite and other assets have been compromised such that, after GENERATIONS of ‘good performance under IMF guidance’… that country remains in a total mess…
Trinidad had to be curtailed – and how better than closing their petrolium-based industries, and forcing them to return to exporting RAW MATERIALS and buying refined products – like in the good old plantation days…
The joker Rowley closed it to ’save money’ – since it was being ‘run inefficiently’.
What an idiot!!
..It did not cross his mind to use his clout to CHANGE ITS OPERATIONS and insist on EFFICIENCY instead???Does that remind us of another set of economic idiots called Arthur & Stinkliar??? who dumped the BNB because it was ‘inefficiently run’ – by people that THEY appointed, and who were mere POPPETS – doing the shiite that THEY instructed…?
…for political ends…?What a set of political JAs!!
So the albino-centric demons are laughing all the way to the IMF….
Their objective is a SIMPLE ONE…
Take back OWNERSHIP from the simple-minded semi-freed slaves, and put them back into apprenticeship – where they can happily enjoy massa’s guidance.By converting Barbados’ AGRICULTURAL lands into concrete – and transfering ownership to the foreign-owned banks (via mortgages) and to wealthy elites, THE DEMONS are ensuring that we can NEVER escape their grasp again….by feeding ourselves.. or OWNING anything of value…..
Cars, Cruises and TVs….YES!!!
Land and businesses???? wunna MAD???!!!What a BLIND sret of people we are….
What a curse.. -
@ Bush Tea
Found the T&T importing refined petroleum from Jamaica very interesting. It epitomizes what is wrong in our region.
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Why did you find that interesting? We are ALL blinded.
Does Barbados not import Banking services?
Do we not import sweet potatoes and tomatoes?
Want to bet that we import raw sugar? tamarind, and cherries too?We don’t even know the extent to which we are being manipulated for the material gains of ruthless albino-centrics – who spend all their free time concocting schemes – while we are ‘gatherin’ , feting, and liming….
A curse is a serious thing hear..?
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@ Bush Tea
If covid did not force Government and by extension us as a country, to restructure our economy away from tourism dependency my friend nothing will! Actually we are probably more dependant now on toursim than we were pre covid. Have we improved our food supply? Have the green houses been built by the state on state land then rented to the farmers as discussed? Where has every dollar practically invested in Barbados gone into industry wise?
Nope we would be even worst off today to face another covid were it too come now. Sad but true as day meets night.
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Claudia.
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@John A
Did you hear James Paul expressed a similar opinion regarding the decline of agriculture output and agriculture land being put into housing since Covid 19.
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What does 1.2 billion more in savings by Barbadians mean? Low confidence in government bonds?
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@ David
No I didn’t hear what he said on it. But especially in these times of Tarif and unknown chaos that may follow it is a fair comment. Everything made in China that is purchased from wholesalers in the USA will reflect the increase. For them not to charge us they would have to be operating out a freezone facility and that too is unclear so far. Clarity is also being sought on items made in Canada but shipped to New York for shipment to our region. Are these seen as entering the USA though only intransit, or are they subject for the 25% tax also?
Alot is still not clear but it depends on how hard Trump wants to hit them and by extension us the customers.
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It’s actually happening.🚨
America just admitted defeat to BRICS
THIS IS THE END OF THE EMPIRE
Marco Rubio: “In 5 years we won’t have the ability to sanction anyone”
Kicking Russia off SWIFT will go down as one the biggest blunders in history. pic.twitter.com/n5DAsxKWH5
— ADAM (@AdameMedia) February 3, 2025
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@John A
“If covid did not force Government and by extension us as a country, to restructure our economy away from tourism dependency my friend nothing will!…”
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We did not restructure our economy after covid because WE do not have the power, ability or leadership to do so…. although it is patently obvious that this is vital.1 – We do not have the POWER!
We would need to convince the IMF before any such initiative could be undertaken. If you understand the actual AGENDA of the IMF …then you will see why not…2 We do not have the ABILITY!
It would take a level of VISION, competence and intelligence to make such a change….EVEN IF THE IMF could be circumvented…3 -BUT this required competence DOES NOT EXIST in leaders who CANNOT even solve pot holes, basic hospital records, ZR chaos, or ongoing education confusion..
What restructure what…?
..not even de constitution…The Titanic has been breeched below deck.
Salvation is beyond the capacity of the crew who crashed it in the first place…
It is just a matter of time before even the top deck is submerged… -
Structural weaknesses not being discussed
GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK Dr Kevin Greenidge continues to present reports on the economy which suggest that the economy is extremely strong and robust and is on a sustainable growth path.
Dr Greenidge’s preoccupation is with traditional macroeconomic variables (gross domestic product, growth, unemployment rate, foreign reserves level, debt to gross domestic product ratio) rather than debt stock, primary surplus and inflation.
His focus on the macroeconomic variables masks the numerous structural weaknesses in the economy and society that are hardly discussed in the presentations.
These weaknesses include unbalanced growth with the economy over-reliant on the tourism industry and, more recently, construction; high trade deficits; high levels of dispossession and poverty, as families continue to buckle under the weight of high food prices and the high cost of living; inadequate state of public health, education and water distribution services; the labour market characterised by a high level of underemployment, high youth unemployment and low participation rates, especially among females; and an insatiable appetite for borrowing which results in debt levels remaining very high.
Other structural weaknesses are a risk-averse private sector, which results in lower than desirable levels of annual private sector investment; worrying levels of violent and other crimes; high taxes which have a constraining social and economic impact; high levels of foreign reserves, which are mainly borrowed rather than earned; and inefficient state-owned enterprises which continue to be financially burdensome on public funds.
While we understand the Governor’s urge to present economic reports reflecting success with the International Monetary Fund-supported Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation programmes, a detailed examination of the economy and society indicates significant challenges exist.
– ANTHONY P. WOOD
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Love at first sight….of the photo.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2025/02/06/senator-calls-for-holetown-civic-centre-to-stay-in-govt-hands/
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Moody standing firm.
Moody’s maintains rating
Debt burden declining, but agency still watchful
By Shawn Cumberbatch shawncumberbatch@nationnews.com
Moody’s Investors Service has not followed three of its counterparts in upgrading Barbados’ credit rating and it is not saying if such action is likely soon.
However, the agency signalled that improvements or regressions in relation to the country’s debt metrics hold the key to whether or not it will give a credit rating upgrade or downgrade in the future.
Following a January 16 periodic review of Government’s ratings, Moody’s announced on January 24 that “Barbados’ ratings, including its B3 long-term issuer rating, with stable outlook remain unchanged”.
It said the stable outlook “reflects a balance between elevated credit risks related to still-high debt and interest burdens, and exposure to climate shocks, against our expectation of a firm downward trajectory for debt metrics over the two to three years”.
Under Moody’s global long-term rating scale, obligations rated B are considered speculative and subject to high credit risk.
The firm’s announcement on the latest periodic review came ahead of Central Bank Governor Dr Kevin Greenidge saying last week that the recent credit rating upgrades from Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Ltd illustrated that Barbados’ debt was on the right track.
“People can draw on the reports from independent analysis, rating agencies, for example,” he told a press conference which reviewed Barbados’ economic performance in 2024.
“We got a few upgrades . . . and all of them cited the improvements in debt as one of the factors for why we were upgraded. I am confident if we bring [the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio] to 100 [per cent of GDP], you will see even faster upgrades. So all independent analysis suggests that debt is stable, sustainable [and] manageable.”
Credit profile
Moody’s view is that Barbados’ credit profile “reflects relatively high, albeit declining, debt burden and historically subdued growth performance”.
“However, its tourism-dependent economy has recovered strongly in the past years and showed resiliency to successive shocks. The Government is also implementing a strategy of public investment focused on mitigating the island’s exposure to climate shocks,” it added.
The credit rating agency said Barbados’ rating could be upgraded “if fiscal consolidation efforts lead to rapid drop in Government debt metrics”.
“Higher sustained rates of economic growth supported by successful implementation of structural reforms and coupled with clear evidence of improved competitiveness could also lead to an upward rating change,” it noted.
“The rating could be downgraded if the Government’s fiscal consolidation efforts prove insufficient to prevent persistent debt accumulation reversing the favourable trend reported by various debt metrics.
“Similarly, renewed pressures on foreign exchange reserves would introduce risks to the external accounts that could put downward pressure on the rating,” Moody’s said.
Rationale
Elaborating on its key rating considerations and rationale, Moody’s stated: “The credit profile of Barbados incorporates our assessment of ‘Ba3’ economic strength, reflecting the economy’s limited diversification and historically weak, but improving economic growth.
“We assess the strength of Barbados’ institutions and governance at ‘Ba2’ to reflect Barbados’ relatively strong rankings on Worldwide Governance Indicators, balanced against the recent sovereign default.
“Barbados’ credit profile also reflects ‘B3’ fiscal strength due to the sovereign’s high debt burden balanced against improved fiscal performance since the debt restructuring. Our assessment of Barbados’ susceptibility to event risk is set at ‘B’ driven by moderate Government liquidity risk and external vulnerability risk.”
Source:Nation
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