Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 14th Jan 2022. I’ve omitted the Vaccinations chart and added a reproductive number chart which gives some idea about the rate of reproduction of the virus and a daily official isolations chart to get some indication of the position re. incidence of persons sickened by the Virus. Total isolations are increasing gradually but Official Isolations are going down slowly and the Reproductive rates are actually decreasing at this stage. Deaths are still relatively low. The charts seem to be indicating that we might yet escape the dire UWI model predictions. So far, so good.
Lyall Small
BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers
189 responses to “BU Covid Dash – Fighting the Numbers”
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January 14, 2022
A strange new symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats.
By Katherine Rodriguez | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Symptoms of the omicron variant differ from past COVID-19 symptoms, making the coronavirus more difficult to detect unless tested.
According to health experts, a new and unique symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats.
“People aren’t reporting a loss of taste or smell as much with omicron as they were with previous variants,” Dr. John Torres, NBC News senior medical correspondent told the Today Show. “But people are reporting night sweats, which is a very strange symptom that they say they’re having.”But what are night sweats exactly and how did they get associated with COVID-19?
Here is what you need to know.
What are night sweats?
Night sweats are “repeated episodes of extreme perspiration” that might soak your bedsheets, according to The Mayo Clinic.
They are often related to an illness or an underlying medical condition.
Night sweats were most commonly associated with medical conditions ranging in severity from the flu to cancer but were not associated with the coronavirus until the omicron variant of COVID-19 started spreading globally.Night sweats are associated with a fever, too, but a fever is not a common symptom of the omicron variant of COVID-19.
How did night sweats start getting associated with the omicron variant?
Night sweats are one of the unique symptoms that medical professionals say distinguishes the omicron variant from other COVID-19 variants. A scratchy, sore throat is another.
Doctors treating patients in hospitals and urgent cares documented more patients coming in with the omicron variant of COVID-19 reporting night sweats.
Dr. Amir Khan, a physician with the United Kingdom’s National Health Service, said people should now look for night sweats as a symptom of the omicron variant of COVID so they can get tested.“It’s important we keep on top of these symptoms, because if we’re going to keep track of omicron here and worldwide we need to be able to test people with these symptoms,” Dr. Khan told The Sun.
What are the other symptoms of the omicron variant of COVID-19?
The main symptoms of the omicron variant according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other sources are the following:• Cough • Congestion • Runny nose • Sore or scratchy throat • Night sweats • FatigueThose who test positive for the omicron variant of COVID-19 are less likely to have a loss of taste or smell, when compared to the COVID strains from 2020 and most of 2021.
But they are more likely to have the unique symptom of night sweats.How can I protect myself from the omicron variant and its symptoms?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says you should get one of the three COVID-19 vaccines that are available to you — Moderna, Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson — along with wearing a mask indoors in public, staying six feet apart from others, and washing your hands often with soap and water.
The agency also recommends that those ages 12 years and older should get a booster shot five months after their initial series of the Pfizer vaccine, or Moderna vaccines for those 18 and older.What’s next?
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We need to separate out the imported cases.
Until we do that, the numbers are useless.
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The same sort of thing is playing out in Singapore which has open borders now but keeps track of imported cases.
The Ro number is very similar to ours.
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Dirt FarmerJanuary 14, 2022 10:42 PM
January 14, 2022
A strange new symptom of the omicron variant has emerged: Night sweats
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Don’t forget the diarrhea which is a pretty standard symptom in most waterborne diseases as are many of the others including shortness of breath!!.
What symptoms does Omicron cause?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lists the possible symptoms of a SARS-CoV-2 infection without specifying a variant. These are:fever or chills
cough
shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
fatigue
muscle or body aches
headache
new loss of taste or smell
sore throat
congestion or runny nose
nausea or vomiting
diarrhea -
Not catching it also works well too.
Fix the water.
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LEAST HESITANT
Barbados leading charge with 69 per cent vaccinated
Barbadians remain the least hesitant to be vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus, and are leading the charge in the subregion with 69 per cent being vaccinated against the virus.
However, Minister of Health The Most Honourable Jeffrey Bostic said while the numbers remained a concern especially among school-aged children and might pose a threat for the safe return to face-to-face classes, he was satisfied with the results.
Director of CADRES, Peter Wickham, explained the primary strata for the COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Survey Report 2021
published in December 2021, sponsored by UNICEF and USAID, were age and sex, with 40 per cent of the respondents being parents.
The islands surveyed included Barbados, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago, with 50 per cent female and 50 per cent male respondents, in the 18-30, 31-50, and 51 and over age categories.
According to the results presented and measured on a scale of one to ten, with one being the least hesitant, Barbados stood at 3.9. Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago at 4.4; Dominica, 4.7; St Lucia, 5.1; and St Vincent and the Grenadines, 5.4.
“Barbados is closest to three. However, even Barbados is not yet at three. St Vincent and the Grenadines is the farthest away from three and the others are somewhere in between. This will be a tool that we will use to track the levels as we proceed,” Wickham said.
He noted 62 per cent of respondents indicated they were vaccinated, while 38 per cent said they were not.
He said those who remained unvaccinated were mainly younger people, presumably less concerned about the risks of being unvaccinated, as well as those who worked from home, held some opposition to governments, or those who had no post-secondary education.
Results of the survey also showed 69 per cent of Barbadians were vaccinated against the virus with any available vaccine. However, 56 per cent of males and 44 per cent of females remained unvaccinated, with the highest opposition in the 18-30 age category, including 48 per cent of secondary educated persons.
However, a second survey conducted by CADRES last October showed a shift. The results indicated a significant shift with 24 per cent of males and 16 per cent of females remaining unvaccinated. The 18-30 age category while remaining the most defiant against vaccines, showed an 18 per cent decline in those remaining opposed to it. The main factors that helped people change their minds were medical advice and personal research.
Bostic said that during and throughout the pandemic, health officials saw the impact vaccine hesitancy would have on the entire programme. While Wickham lauded the efforts of both USAID and UNICEF, he said Barbados was not where it needed to be in relation to vaccination against the COVID-19 virus.
“The statistics in relation to Barbados are consistent with what we are seeing on the ground beyond a shadow of a doubt. In relation to our primary and secondary schools, children who have been impacted significantly in this pandemic in relation to their school programme and social development,” he said. (RA)
Source: Nation -
I see Canada has stopped testing, maxed out!!
The authorities are infecting their own people through the water and don’t even seem to know it.
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The article quoted is a tough read (for me). I used the search term “COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Survey Report 2021” and ended up with a download of the T&T summary of responses. Would love to see the summary for Barbados and the actual questionnaire.
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John this virus has affected the world
Don’t u think.by now tat some one other than yourself would have arrived and concluded that water is a source or carrier of the virus
The scientific professionals are doing extensive monitoring and research of the virus wouldn’t water samples worldwide not be included
You seem to be fixated and one of having a narcissistic mindset of wanting to be right -
While here in Barbados the Covid talking heads are speaking about vaccine
International countries are struggling to keep business’s open because of shortages in the work environment and good supplies
Many stores are experiencing supply shortages and the virus is causing a lack of employment
Barbados would soon be feeling such an effect
The election now in full swing with many promises would soon find out that competing with Covid is no joke when the supply chain is broken
A problem that international countries are finding hard to deal with -
Found the full report (a pdf file, do I will not share the link). Found the Trinidad breakout (👍 a pdf file, do I will not share the link).
Cannot find the Barbados breakout. Talking heads prefer to run the numbers by you instead of letting you read for yourself. Cannot find the actual surveyHere is how the numbers can be distributed in future.. the links provides a nice summary of the results and the actual survey
https://www.pcchd.org/309/Vaccine-Hesitancy-Survey-Report-2021 -
@John
Here is why I view your graphs with a great deal of suspicion
1) no label for the y axis. It is true that there is the heading ‘weekly growth rate’ but see 4).
2) the word ‘Flood’ is there. I doubt this can be found in the original plot (if there is one)
3) no real explanation of 1.38.. is it R0 or is it a seat rate?
4) Looks like two ‘snippets’ were combined
5) No link so I can check the source@Lyall
Curious about your calculation of R0 -
angela coxJanuary 15, 2022 6:58 AM
John this virus has affected the world
Don’t u think.by now tat some one other than yourself would have arrived and concluded that water is a source or carrier of the virus
The scientific professionals are doing extensive monitoring and research of the virus wouldn’t water samples worldwide not be included
You seem to be fixated and one of having a narcissistic mindset of wanting to be right+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Fascinated, not fixated.
Can’t believe something as obvious as this could get by all the experts.
Watching the Australians go after Novak and they can’t seem to twig that the difference between WA and the other half of their continent gives them the solution.
Anyway, enjoying myself and more importantly, leaving a trail here and elsewhere.
Somebody is going to have to do some serious accounting.
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Here is the Singapore link Grasshopper.
This is where I got the graphs.
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Google
Singapore Imported Cases
Taiwan Imported Cases
etc.
The flood I put in because Singapore suddenly had a problem afterwards.
Here is the flood in Singapore.
Interesting link below as it deals with how they are making defenses against it.
Always ahead of the game.
I assumed floods in Singapore in April and August 2021 it was common knowledge.
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Looks like November too.
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TheOGazertsJanuary 15, 2022 7:48 AM
@John
Here is why I view your graphs with a great deal of suspicion
1) no label for the y axis. It is true that there is the heading ‘weekly growth rate’ but see 4).
2) the word ‘Flood’ is there. I doubt this can be found in the original plot (if there is one)
3) no real explanation of 1.38.. is it R0 or is it a seat rate?
4) Looks like two ‘snippets’ were combined
5) No link so I can check the source@Lyall
Curious about your calculation of R0+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Singapore opened its borders like Barbados but you can get more information from Singapore’s numbers than you can from those in Barbados.
Both have two populations they are sampling.
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@🐇/🐰
Your link increased your credibility with me. Credibility in the data that were provided (not your theory)
Resist adding text -
Grasshopper
The R0 number is really crap because it assumes people can only be infected from other people.
No one understands it but because it is a single number it is easy to use and makes presenters appear super intelligent!!
Obviously if people can be infected without being around other people through the water in their homes then the number is meaningless.
Pay attention to all of the assumptions in this video which go in to its fabrication.
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If you watch the video which is real sexy and apparently giving all the answers, then you understand why people completely missed the simple obvious facts.
Again, Western Australia puts this theorising to bed.
People are moving around but yet it is not spreading.
In the rest of Australis, people are also moving around but it is!!
Obviously the theory is flawed.
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“Obviously if people can be infected without being around other people through the water in their homes then the number is meaningless.”
How many people / cases do you know where people have become infected when they have had no contact with anyone
Using Obviously makes you sound Patronising and Condescending
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Anyone who has had the symptoms caused by waterborne diseases like diarrhea, vomiting, shortness of breath have probably contracted their COVID from water!!
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It’s a bit gruesome to watch but this is what is happening as far as I can see.
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555dubstreetJanuary 15, 2022 9:34 AM
Using Obviously makes you sound Patronising and Condescending
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That’s the point.
It gets people to read what I am writing which you obviously have so it works.
I’m only interested in you not becoming like Mr. Frog above.
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Thanks for your R0 post. I found text but did not find a video. I am curious as to how Lyall is calculating R0 daily.
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“It gets people to read what I am writing which you obviously have so it works.
I’m only interested in you not becoming like Mr. Frog above.”You are a smart ass although you stink
Water has cleansing properties
and diluting propertiesWater does not appear to spread Covid as confirmed by the World Health Organization …
as Americans would say you suck -
@🐇/🐰
I hope that you and I can continue to talk without going beyond Grasshopper and Rabbit.
——xx—–I would not refer to statistics as crap, but I have concerned about how they are derived. I will not support your water theory, but breakthrough infection and mutation (new variants) makes me leery of the numbers being provided as the models being used may need some tweaking.
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TheOGazerts;
Re. the reproductive rate calculation, I used a Reproductive rate formula derived from dissasembling the formula in the Barbados Google sheets spreadsheet. I then tested that formula by inserting it in my Covid-19 master spreadsheet and comparing the derived Reproductive rate numbers from my data with the published Google sheets numbers for data between October 2021 and yesterday.
The URL for the Google sheets spreadsheet is below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18GokWZdhzqoNjkr_92myX0Gbvi4MQp6rzp2zInZMu3E/edit#gid=329198075The formula is a simple one which essentially sums the seven days incidence data for a particular date and then divides that number by the sum of similar data for seven days earlier.
Hope this helps!
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@Lyall
I haven’t checked as yet, but let me say two things
(1) An excellent response
(2) I love the fact that you can provide a link on the method used.Transparency is admired.
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TheO
Watch Singapore.
Fit the floods then fit the imported cases.
You will see they fit like magic.
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TheOGazerts;
You said above: “—–but breakthrough infection and mutation (new variants) makes me leery of the numbers being provided as the models being used may need some tweaking”.I agree with you totally especially re. the Barbados Vaccinations x Isolation type breakdowns, the most recent of which can be interpreted as suggesting that Full Vaccinations are just marginally better than no vaccinations in reducing symptoms and that partial vaccinations actually give the best outcomes. Will try to expand on this later but I think that the figures might be pointing to a very serious problem.
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John the blogmaster may soon start to push a view that with flooding people may have a tendency to spend more time indoors and therefore create the opportunity for increased transmissibility of the more active Omicron.
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@ David Bu
Are the statisticians fighting the numbers OR massaging them? They seem to be trying to express blood from stones. One has to start with a model of Epidemiology. Numbers do not speak for themselves.
@ Lyallsmall
What conceptually is a virus reproduction rate? Who/what is doing the reproduction? -
@Vincent
The title is about the country finding ways to carry on its business despite the numbers.
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Floods only happen sporadically!!!
Watch what is happening in Singapore.
Local cases have bottomed out after recent floods BUUUUUUUT cases are rising.
But the local population is holding.
It’s the imported ones that are causing the rise.
Which is my point, the numbers in Barbados are meaningless without the breakdown of imported cases.
You can’t calculate a single Ro.
There are two populations and to some extent they are separate.
I say one is dominant and reflects the Ro of its parent population in the UK or wherever.
I suspect the local population is holding, possibly falling.
… but we need the FOREX, so once the two populations are separate, go for it!!
We are just not doing a good job with our data presentation and it is understandable, Bajans can be xenophobic!!
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Fascinated
Narcissist are indeed Fascinated with projects as well as having a morbid fixation on things which they belive is out of the reality and control of others
Hence your Fascinated fixation on Covid having a belief which u have formally convinced your self that the problem lies in the water
Watching others follow you down the Covid hole to.find water for more than 9mths is indeed fascinating -
DavidJanuary 15, 2022 11:19 AM
@Vincent
The title is about the country finding ways to carry on its business despite the numbers.
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I am explaining how the country is carrying on its business and why opening the borders is a fair gamble.
Singapore took it.
What I suspect will happen is the local population will stay at its level and not be significantly impacted by the imported cases.
Unfortunately, unlike Singapore we don’t know what the local level is,
All bets are off if floods occur.
However, there is a simple protocol to follow which is routinely followed at Bowmanston after heavy rains.
Shut down the offending source as we get floods.
For how long?
Looks like could be up to two months.
The Zone 1 Protection area takes care of the bulk of our water where COVID is concerned.
It is as simple as that.
Long term, sewer the housing areas around the desal plant.
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@ David BU
Is Barbados closed to business? OR is one sector affected more severely by a global pandemic? That industry probably contributes more to the contagion than other sectors. Therefore protocols relating to that sector may require special attention.. In life one has to make choices ,however uncomfortable they may be. It is simply a ,matter of necessity. We are dealing with uncertainty. AND we are managing as best we can. -
Vincent
You are right.
You can’t just apply the math unless you understand the physical model you seek to predict.
It is obvious the physical model based on airborne transmission is not the correct one.
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Agree with you Vincent.
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John; The above graph does not bear any resemblance to the graph on which you added “Floods”
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Lyall
Look at the x axis and you will see it is only from November last year and for cases whereas the cases/million graph is for over 2 years.
I like the case/million graphs because it is easy to compare like with like and the y axis is irrelevant.
What you have to do is look at the same period.
… and … look at the cases graph but only in the period marked PERIOD!!.
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I would diagnose Singapore’s problem as follows.
The water extracted from raw sewage and the sea still has remnants of the virus.
Nature has to clear the source water from the inputs to the treatment plants.
Once it did, cases fell.
Singapore then opened its borders.
Cases rose, but not because of water, because people arriving even though they were vaccinated and tested, still developed COVID.
The same two population model which I say we face.
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We had a water problem.
Nature cleared it for us for free.
Same in Singapore.
It will happen over time all over the world.
Some countries like Brazil will smell hell for a while because natural processes are both creating and sweeping away the virus.
Until nature settles down they are left to their own devices.
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Having got over our water problem we opened our borders.
So we created another problem, still related to water, but in other countries.
The virus can be eradicated but it means the countries of the world INDIVIDUALLY need to figure out ways to defend their water supplies from floods.
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Google Taiwan Imported cases and you will see Taiwan’s current rise in cases is due to the fact it opened its borders.
Every country faces the same choice, when to open its borders.
Cases will naturally rise, hence BAMP’s concern.
But the gamble here is worth taking.
The gamblers better make sure they understand that at the first sign of floods, know which cock to lock off.
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TEN THOUSAND PEOPLE EVERY SINGLE MONTH.
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There you go
Two populations.
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6 flights a day from merry old England.
How many seats per plane?
Multiply it by 6 and you know that is how many tests being done in the Tourist population.
So if a plane could take 250 people, every day there are probably over 1200 tourists to test.
Which jives with what I am seeing at the Sky Mall test site, very few tests.
You could use this to weight the tests and end up with the two Ro’s for the two different populations.
Once the Ro for the local population is in control, it is mainly the Hotel Staff who are at risk in the so called “Safe Areas” with the vaccinated and tested visitors!!
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.