Based on the most recent CADRES poll Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart is winning the leadership race. What must be of concern is that the Wickham poll was conducted before Minister of Agriculture David Estwick delivered one of the most powerful presentations of the campaign so far at the NCF on Friday night.
How will this translate in the individual constituencies with a 3.4% swing in play makes it a very interesting general election.
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@ac
Take it away!
Try not to gloat.
LOL nice David
He might win the leadership race but loose his seat. Find it difficult to comprehend after attending each party meetings five times each including both manifestos launch. Is this leadership issue based on innuendoes?
David on February 16, 2013 at 6:48 AM
@Fractured
Was Operation Bang, or was it Bang Bang postponed?
——————————-
Hi david,
I was away from BU for a while. I was busy welcoming Beenie Man to our shores in true CARICOM spirit.
Back to Operation Bang , it is obvious you missed Dr. David Estwick presentation last night that the exposed the trickery and treachery of OSA brand of ” optics ” economics . I always told you we the DEMS were going to expose OSA on the big screen. Dr. Estwick through the use of a power presentaion placed the real economic figures during the OSA years and that of the DEMS on the big screen last evening.
You should have heard the screams of disgust from the crowd when the folly of OSA vodoo economics was exposed.
That was Operation Bang 1
OSA says it was only banter between him and PM Stuart on the floor of Parliament over the ” tek Mia Mottley offa muh ” saga . PM Stuart insists OSA wrote him a note.
For OSA sake , I hope he was DRUNK !
When PM Stuart set the record straight on that issue:
Then that will be Operation Bang 2
Now to Peter ” go tek a pole ” Wickham.
His most recent CADRES poll data shows
BEES – 17 seats
DEMS – 13 seats
Peter in his analysis says it is too close to call
The swing has fallen from 7% to 4% against the DEMS.
PM Stuart popularity is now 36% , Owen Arthur is at 32%
WE ALL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE SUNDAY SUN PUBLISH THEIR POLL. REPORTS THAT THE PRESSURE IS APPLIED TO THEM.
That clearly tells me that WICKHAM is having a lot of influence on this GENERAL ELECTION. I guess that is possible now that PM Stuart has promised him an Ambassador pick….to. BULL – GARIA .
This Barbados is a very strange place !!!!
But David the TRUTH of it all…… OSA will not win this election……..the forces of Mia Mottley and Peter Wickham are too POWERFUL.
Their role and impact in this GE would be the final Operation Bang.
I know of what I speak.
——————————————-
David,
The above statements I shared with you earlier, the poll results do not vote people do.
The people would eventually decide.
Mia holds the key…….when she finds out that OSA really tried to sell her to the DEMS……that will be the BANG that will scatter the BEES before 21st February, 2013.
Stay tuned
@David (not BU)
Here is what we wrote is another blog yesterday:
What is absolutely scary about General Election 2013 is that many fear the return of Owen Arthur, yet the same group is uninspired by a DLP government, who for the first three years of its term seem to be caught like a deer in headlights.
@Fractured BLP
Only a few days you and your cohorts were licking Wickham. O what a few days make.
I see Rock Groove Inc. concur with my comments.
Not to mention it was conducted before many blunders by the government such as the June Fowler comment by Sinkler and PM Stuart with the go to drug dealers for money comment just to give some examples
David,
Why would I be found ” licking ” Wickham. I am not that way inclined.
I have been consistent in my view that the DEMs is the party of choice in 2013.
I do not have to rely on Wickham poll. But a good question for Wickham of all persons to answer – how could PM Stuart move up almost 30% points BY CALLING ELECTIONS LATE – that he Peter Wickham said was bare nonsense ?
@Damani
Yes the PM could have expressed himself better with the ‘cane field, ‘sore nipples’ and ‘drug dealer’ comments but Bajans are not stupid. They know the BLP is spinning those comments. The drug dealer comment again is being taken completely out of context. The PM is NOT saying for any one to go to drug dealers for money. He was simply using a harsh example to make a point. This is what BU means when we say the platforms are focused on trivia. Sinckler’s comment about Fowler was silly but will be taken as platform rhetoric in the silly season.
Owing is running down the field as you will see Mottley and her family are in full effect in St Peter and a few other areas and he has lost the respect from the electorate and he will also loose his seat thru the effort of the Mottley family remember it was he who said the he would never let a mottley see power in this island once he could stop the name in its tracks.
The truth is neither Mottley or Arthur are respected or deserve respect but the Mottley family despises the short uncouth runt and they are on a mission to rid Barbadian Politics of the tyrant Arthur, once and for all, after all Mottley is nothing were Arthur to sadly win the election so her mission is to put him out to pasture and feed on the green Green grass of home.
Damani,
Do not get anymore nightmares.
Was the poll conducted before OSA and Barney Lynch used a MARSHALL knife to give Mia Mottley another stab in her back ?
The BEEs in this campaign are the ones running a dirty campaign :
Lying about their crowds
Lying about their ads
Lying about their policies
Lying about their ” UNITY ”
The Bajan electorate are silently watching your wild horse OSA run around the Garrison Savannah…….in the opposite direction !
Keep it up……he looking good for Gold Cup next month !
Great work stable boys , Miller , Observing , Enuff , Onions and Tell me Why !!!
Jevan is blaming the Nation Editor now?
Well it looks like it will be close……
Andrew Brathwaite likes this.Jevan Jutagir Shocked by a Peter wickham poll? Really?
about an hour ago · LikeJevan Jutagir You also need to know more about eric smith editor (ag) of the nation
comment_id=27981004&offset=0&total_comments=5″ rel=”nofollow”>about an hour ago · LikeLeslie St. John I will have a look I the morning….
about an hour ago · LikeDavid King Only a few days ago the BLPites were hailing the CADRES polls. O well.
The Coolie get nuff money to try to make Arthur look young and appear not too corrupt, it ain’t wuking.
Trust me it did not take a poll to know that the BLP had nothing to offer from the very start of their campaign when they could attract fewer than 1500 persons to listen to their lies and then to exact another lie in treatment press to thank the fewer than 1500 persons who attended to inflate them to 9000 now from the outset they are being liars and dishonest about something so basic that is hardly worth lying over but yet still the BLP felt it necessary to LIE about the number of people who did not show up for their big meeting.
The difference comes about because the DEMS have delivered in the toughest of economic times whereas the BLP stole from taxpayers in the best of economic times, the DEMS can show Barbadians where their money
Where their money was spent and on what it was spent, the BLP cannot do likewise.
What the hell is happening , where is miller where is onion, the one Observing(..)? You too Prodigal. I cant believe my eyes Fruendel Stuart the man villified and maligned by the Bees like no other has overtaken Owen the Great Leader Arthur in the leadership stakes. David speak up. Am I reading the Nation teaser correctly. After the relentless ridicule the cartoons, the nasty comments about him Freundel overcomes. Big up yourself Freundel no matter what happens from here on in you proved yourself to be giant of a man
FS given him the right punch but Mottley going to deliver to him the knock out punch by removing him and the others of his ilk from around the BLP politics for the rest of his life.
Yawn…
Morning bloggers…
For the blinded bragging bloggers among us. I have never supported the return Arthur, and never will. On the flipside, I am highly disappointed with the DLP team and their collective strategy/action/inaction, though Stuart tried his best with what David left him. The nonsense which some DLPites on BU talk too can be a massive turnoff.
Now, could the DLP supporters please not get complacent and realise that combined popularity and the view of individual candidates in their own ridings are what count the most?….gloating over a 2-3% preferred leadership lead means nothing on the actual day. After cussing him for months the DLP have now bet the whole house on Freundel and leadership. 4 days will tell if the strategy works. Remember Romney surged in October – November but underestimated the damage inflicted by Obama since June-July.
It’s all about numbers. The people in the swing seats are the ones that will count! Game on!
@tell me why
Freundel will win his seat. Don’t fool ya foot.
Btw, DLP supporters hailing this poll now and believing/trusting Wickham? I thought he was d scum of the earth? Will they ignore or acknowledge it. Lol.
Just Observing
Some weeks ago I ventured to suggest that the DLP will come with a late surge – and was laughed at – because when reality sinks in and the electorate reflects on the issues they will go with the DLP Government.
I believe that the DLP has a firmer foundation, can be trusted to act with INTEGRITY – and I do not mean to disparage the BLP. The Manifestos were the final piece of the jig-saw, pie in the sky promises gave the game away.
As regards Mia Mottley, she will return to lead the BLP and nothing can stop that. . . she is a very, very, clever woman indeed.
But this poll is no surprise, plenty people voting for the BLP dislike and do not want Arthur as leader. If anything it shows the dems are all behind Stuart….a positive sign for them. But I don’t see how this changes things at the contituency level. The numbers still adding up in favour of the bees and even if one is generous with St Michael….still 17-13 to the bees.
@dAVID
SINCE U WERE SO HARD ON THE PM OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, CAN U TELL US WHAT FACTORS HAVE OR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS SURGE?
Now see wuh I is tell ya bout Bajans. Lord have mercy man people wun lemme get lil sleep calling calling me de hole night pon my celluar phone.
Awright, Pearlie is not no official spoeksman, but look my Prime Minister dont have no time for Wickham and he polls. We dun know dat Freundel lead is more than de Nation poll say. Das ok. de real poll is Thursday and my party dont count eggs in fowl pooch like de Bees. Das one.
Two. I see Affah get jook by Peter pole! Murda! Somebody tell me when it leak out last night Affa was sweating and stuttering and start telling de Bees dem in got it in de bag so dem must tek dem hand out de fowl pooch. As Thompson use tuh say, dont panic! Nuff time fuh Affa to panic pon Thursday night. Bajans in stupid. Pearlie tired telling wunna Affah in nuh use. Dah fuh lick de Bees, fuh getting rid a Mia. Dont mind she in nuh use neither but das fuh a different day!
Number three. Tonight, tonight. A hot one at de Dems meeting tonight. Like a cane ground burning. Das all I saying bout dah.
Four. Stop humbuggin me pon my cell phone fuh news. Wunna know who wunna is. Wunna cant trick me into talking out wuh else I hear de Dems got plannin to catspreddle de Bees dis week niether. Pearlie know how and when to handle news. Yuh’s cant talk everyting one time. Stay tune dear-hearts, stay tune!
Five. Das all. Um is a five point plan not nuh 15 point wun. Ah gone! Murda!
CADRES is still predicting a BLP victory.
What will be interesting for BU is to see if the two platforms keep their form. BU suspects not. The DLP has promised more tonight.
It looks like the true campaign is about to start.
An interesting stat from the poll is 34.9% believes Barbados is on the ‘right track’ compared to 40.2% who says not.
@OBSERVING
COME AGAIN, YOU HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING ARTHUR AND THE BLP, BUT THAT IS YOUR DEMOCRATIC RIGHT.
DLP SUPPORTES ARE QUITE AWARE THAT ELECTIONS ARE WON AT THE ballot box, so we will not take anything for granted, one day in politics is long, do u remember that saying, and politics do produce strange bed fellows. I have been saying that we will lose a few seats, and i beleive that the bs will lose two, but i am not a polical scientist and i only went to elementary school, so i wont know
Another interesting stat from the poll: 38.9% believes it is time to change the government compared to 40.5% with a 20.6% unsure or won’t say.
The big stat is that overall 33% are uncommitted voters.
Wickham is predicting a narrow victory for the BLP based on his trusty swing analysis.
The next three days will decide the election.
I dont care what the cadre pole prdicting and i aint reading it neither, i remember somebody telling me that peter tell him, that he can design a poll to get what outcome he wants, so i anint reading um and i aint care if um withing the margin of erreor or not.
I just dont want to see the reckless in our spending again, we had nuff moeny and wasted if, we handed them a surplus and them coem telling us lies all along, Estwick u too sweet, u unmasked the blp and show their naked behinds for all to see, and as for mascoll, owen promised he that he will mek he governor of the central bank.
wunnah think the pm was a walk over, he is decent. I like that he doesnt go them business men to eat with them, them think that he is owen that they could use. As pearlie say, i hope the drop the laser bomb tonight and show owen is a fraud,
Peter Wickham will be sitting on hot bricks because his swing analysis of the ‘won’t say/undecided’ is based on historical bavioural characteristics. Will this group behave the same way as those in the historical dataset? Again BU believes the next three days will seal it.
@To the Point
You have to be concerned about the poll because of its opinion shaping effect. The strategy of the DLP will be to hammer raise the volume of their narrative (which seems to be working). The BLP will have to tweak its strategy given they have been pushed on the defensive. Based on today’s press they will be going to the Clico and Parris issue. Full page ads with Sinckler, Boyce and Stuart in images with Parris.
The other interesting observation is how the Nation has framed their lead story. Eric Smith has elected to lead with the Stuart leadership surge. He could so easily have picked another angle like ‘Cadres Poll predicts BLP Victory’.
No wonder Jevan is upset.
@Pearlie. A pleasure to read your comments as always and I have missed you. I think you are right. Indeed, I HOPE with all my heart that you are right.
However, to all the DLP-ites, the caution given by the ever sapient Observing not to start the celebrations yet and that gloating is a massive turn off, are appropriate and timely. I am truly and deeply disturbed by the arrogant bovine excrement and subliminal dishonesty that is the BLP Manifesto and it has caused me to change my position and I sincerely believe that the Electorate is too smart to be fooled – been there, seen it, done it…..and are not going to be tricked into doing it again!!!! But please heed the words of Observing and make it easier for people to vote DLP. Leave it to Owen and his cohorts to alienate them by treating them like cattle, to be bought and sold and dictated to at whim.
David is RIGHT. The oven has not heated up fully yet and if you put the souffle in now, it will not rise.
@TTP
You are intelligent, and we both know that you will never find any post where I supported Arthur as PM or the BLP for the next government. A criticism of BSTU is not a celebration of Broomes. Enough said.
@david
In addition to the percentages you have shown, what’s interesting is that the issues of importance haven’t changed. We have to wait until tomorrow to confirm but clearly this election more than any other may be the start of the shift from perception to substance. I’m amazed, but happy to know we’re slowly getting there. Thursday and the aftermath will decide who we are and where we will be going as a country. It should never have come down to such a close election but hey, a miss is as good as a mile.
Just observing
@Observing
A game changer would be for Arthur to handover to MAM tonight to nullify any DLP announcement 🙂
@yardbroom
You are correct. The DLP always had a firmer foundation and philosophy. Explaining it in the 21st century and evolving it from Barrow has been their challenge.
@TTP
Explaining Freundel’s surge. He has always been rated low, always been given a hard time for his style and always seen as ineffectual. Now, for the first time we are hearing him daily…for the first time he is speaking on issues…for the first time he is seen as leading…for the first time he has actually done some things (AX, Corruption, single mothers. Etc.) and for the first time it is clear that some in the team need him more than he needs them. Having a friend in Bobby as a campaign manager also helps. The surge in leadership preference was always expected in some circles, my small one included. Btw, gaining those two is ABSOLUTELY critical to gaining the majority. I’m hard pressed to see victory without at least one.
@david
The blp’s response will determine the outcome on Thursday. Will they stay the course and ride the wave? Will they panic? Will they react? They already know the demographics they’ve gone after (young, clico and middle class). Time will tell (just like the dlp) whether their early push will take them over the line. Bare in mind the poll was before the emergence of Poochie.
10% of policyholders can tip 5 seats singlehandedly.
Just observing
Handing over to MAM would be stunning but 100% out of character for OSA.
The US election polls said that Romney would win by a huge landslide but the results showed differently. The remark by Chris Snickers describing Ms Fowler as a bald pooch cat has serious ramification, how the female electorate takes it might be similar to the legal rape statements by some of the Republicans candidates.
My only note of caution is to reinforce what AMUSED has alluded to. DLP supporters no celebratory remarks, it turns off the voters. The DLP candidates must push, push, and push again and get the voters out, every single one is important, they must all be gathered in.
I think a better move for Owen might be to announce that she will be deputy. I think the Cadres poll will shake alot of ambivilant bees out of the woodwork. They might prefer Mia to Owen but they will take Owen over Frundel. I think it will also have an impact on the Dems who will also be more likely to vote.
Not having read the analysis yet I’m not sure if this was before the Poochie comment or before Barney’s “Dale” comments. As I think both may have moved the needle a little. Owen should be a little humbled by this result.
This election will be determined by which party can give away the most money on Election Day to get people to vote for them. This is one interesting election and it is good for Barbados politics. Whoever gets in MUST work or find themselves on the political sideline looking in next time.
I am however concerned in the way that the DLP can use state agencies such as The Transport Board to feature an advertisement using one of their buses and then use a radio station which has not gone through the requisite licensing as a political propaganda media machine.
We are on a slippery slope.
David when i LOL it was at your “February 17, 2013 at 1:32 AM” comments to ac.
i don’t believe the BLP should not change anything. keep doing what ya doing but the at the same time the DLP will do more of the same. lets see how that works out come Tuesday. yes, Tuesdayand not Thursday.
it is funny to see the DLP supporters comments on this poll. 😀
The BLP has lead a masterful campaign from start to finish.
Game, Set, Match!
FED UP the DLP say they are in power and they can do as they like. they have broken a lot of election laws. i wonder what will happen if they win and the BLP was to challenge the win in court base on the laws they broke.
@Just saying
A reasonable comment but the reverse may compensate i.e. DLPites who had switched or decided to disengage will be emboldened by Stuart’s surge and return to the fold. All and all things will heat up now.
the blp thinks barbadians stupid. No person in Barbados gets 50 000 a year in Nis pension. The insurable earings, i think is about 4500, so is this new math the blp is doin, or is it a continuation of owen’s deceipt. Come on owen u can do better.
owen said that he will take off the tax on entertainment and travelling; The combined amout that is taxable is over 100 million, so ataking an average rate of tax of 30%, it means that the govt will lose 30 million dollars in revenue. Where will the deficit be plugged from. This is only one anlalysis of the ignorance being placed in the advertisements. BARBADIANS ARE SMARTER THAN WE THINK.
@David I think this poll has just thinned the ranks of the undecideds and also ensured a higher voter participation than we have seen for a while
I haven’t seen the Nation yet but the posts here seem to indicate that:-
1) The BLP is out front 17 to 13
2) Stuart is the preferred leader at 36 as compared to to 32 percent by Arthur. It would be interesting to see how the percentages for the top three “leaders” in each party tally, however.
3) Wickham says its too close to call but also apparently gives the edge to the BLP
4) There appears to be no statistical significance between the wickham poll preferences for the BLP or DLP
5) The election results appear to depend more on the constituency results (LOL) than on the overall favorability ratings.
My take is that the pro DLP posters here are as premature in their expecting the DLP to win handsomely based on this one poll as were the pro BLP posters on the results of the previous polls, as after all, there are still over 30% undecideds who could well be in publics that suffered significantly over the last year. The over the top promises of DT in the last elections were apparently successful how can we be so sure that the apparently over the top promises attributed to the BLP will not be in this election.
I think that the current economy, Chris Sinckler’s mismanagement, and Freundel’s demonstrably poor leadership are still in play here despite the surge created by the out-of-town inspired ad campaign and that the hurting pockets of many interest groups, ranging from the pensioners to the CLICO sufferers will lead to a clear BLP victory if the BLP stay on message and don’t panic.
I also think that despite what the current Wickham poll seems to say about leadership that there is a likelihood that it will be trumped by a BLP victory but that the BLP should urgently address the evident concerns that the people feel about Arthur’s leadership after the 21st.
If perchance Freundel wins on 21st, I hope he will let someone else lead (perhaps Estwick) as he has proven himself imho to be incapable of leading the country effectively. He should be retained as a good whip at a personal level, not as the leader.
One more thing here; Can a party leader force a member of parliament to go over to the other party against her will? Could that matter have been anything other than banter, no matter how it was conducted? Does the elevation of that non point to a key strategy to the exclusion of points on the real economy and how it will be dealt with by the DLP by Stuart indicate a recognition of true priorities? Could it get the DLP more votes?
yes To The Point, BARBADIANS ARE SMARTER THAN WE THINK.
They have notice that the DLP have not talked about the cost of living.
@dAVID NOT BU
U CAN DO BETTER THAN THAT.
Would love if Peter Wickham was on BrassTacks Sunday today. This is going to be an election firestorm. Either Arthur or Stuart MUST release a damaging FACT that implicates the other and it MUST be shown to the public. Can it be Pegasus Hotel or an underhand deal the DLP has entered into?
@FEDup
We must expect Stuart to come with some thing. How it will impact is left to be seen. Stuart does not strike BU as a man who makes idle threats whether you agree with his politics or not. Also what has become of the FBI boast in parliament a while back?
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