Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in 2019 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.
Central Bank of Barbados’ Review of the Barbados Economy in 2019.pdf (4.16 MB)
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@William
It is stupid talk because it does not align with your jaundice view? There was a time when the Central Bank of Barbados was respected as an independent body, in the days of Courtney Blackman for example. Every day people resign based in principle. Barbados is the only Rh place people believe tenure is sacrosanct. Because the MoF reports to the PM it does not mean he or she should not properly represent the office AND the ethics of their Rh profession. If more people stood up for principle what you think will happen? Change will not occur by ceding all authority to the politicians.
And another thing, this blogmaster has no time for group-think. He will call it as he sees it and if you don’t like it “lump it”.
@Vincent
The issue as stated this morning is if the IMF and Barbados have agreed to BERT and the IMF has people on the ground working with the central bank (led by a Bajan in Dr. Kevin Greenidge) and other actors in central government, why should they be forecasting different results? It is wrong wrong.
@ William
When was Courtney Blackman governor of the central bank? Do people realise what an economic forecast is?
@ Vincent.
The forecast can differ of course but it’s the variance that is the concern. As I said if it was a case of say 0.6% vs 0.8 % we could swallow that.
The forecasts were made close together and should of used the same base data. One can only conclude that the difference was in how the parties viewed future developments and their affect on growth.
If we examined the 2 reports line by line I am sure the variances would present themselves.
Point is we deserve an explanation and clarification.
@John A
The issue is not so much the variance it is that the IMF and the government are tied at the BERT hip. There should be on the same page. Why are the IMF officials here?
@ David BU
I beg to disagree.
You need to have a look at the organization chart . You need to identify when the IMF estimate was made. The Governor’s estimate is the official one. IMF changes estimates for growth of world economies every quarter and after every event of economic significance.
So can our competent technocrats at the CBB. So please do not second guess them. You may disagree as I have . That does not mean my estimate is likely to come to fruition. These are the facts of life.
@ David BU
It is your fault for believing that the IMF came to Barbados to run things. They are merely advisors. It is not their responsibility to direct the economic or financial affairs of Barbados.
@Vincent
It must be the cynic rising to the fore in this blogmaster. A key consideration in forecasting is slicing and dicing the historical data sets available, further defines as the ability of the domestic appratus to mobile. Until this blogmaster observes significant change to how we treat with these matters to err on the side of being conservative is a commonsense position. One which can be defended.
@Vincent
In theory but we know that after how many down=grade sthe IMF and BERT was the deal of last resort. The Mottley administration needs the IMF to unlock concessionary financing and to ride shotgun. Given our hand in cap position the IMF people are calling the shots.
@ Vincent
Plse put your hand in your cap.
David BU
That too is an act of belief. They were and are alternatives. But what is done is done. I have moved on. I suggest that you move on as well.
The issue is that In 2018 and 2017 and 2019 from memory the central bank made forecast in the early part of the year, only to come back and revise them downward before year end.
Based therefore on the above it is reasonable for us to question the accuracy of their first report in a given year, as the past has shown us it will be revised downward sometime before December in the said year.
@ Hal
Since I was a little boy I put my cap in my back pocket. Even the expensive one of my secondary school days. Most Barbadians of my generation thought it was a lack of pride and industry to go cap in hand to any body.
John A at 7 :30 PM
Nothing wrong with that. It is called intellectual Integrity.
It is time to hold the Central Bank to account. Who can remember when former Governor Worrell rubbished the BSS employment numbers and promptly commissioned his own? Mind you the BSS is the agency legally responsible for generating the employment numbers.
@ Vincent
Or false enthusiasm depending how you looking at it. Lol
@JohnA
since it is a “forecast”, a projection, I do consider it relatively small. My personal target is less than both, but that is merely unscientific “gut”, and a realization that changes do not occur overnight. A decision may be enacted today, but the repercussions extend for a lot longer.
Talking about ‘up by me’, how do we explain the massive rise in Amazon stock today? Barbados does not have the luxury of borrowing massive amounts, meaning growth by debt. Even more diversified economies, running huge deficits, have growth projections in the 1-1.5% range. Because the Barbadian economy is much smaller, it takes much less dollar value growth to move the needle, which makes a wider range more tolerable to me.
Appreciate, both the IMF and the CBB have agendas. Now if the IMF was at 1.5% and the CBB at 0.6% growth estimates, what would we say then?
Let the focus be on REAL numbers, and use forecasts as mere guides.
Heheheheh
@ Hee Haw the 2nd of the Rented Donkeys
Heheheheh
All I gots to do is bring out the trough of feed and you come running braying
Heheheheh
You do not have as much sense as a blackbird has in it’s big toe!
You do know that a bird has no toe right?
Let de ole man suppose dat wunna look for de ole man causing I does insult Mugabe AND SHOW HER TO BE A DESPOT
AND WUNNA WANT DAT TO STOP!
SO wunna want to say dat I is really Donville Inniss posting, what you gots to do?
Get evidence right?
So….you come to an ole man who left school at 11 NOT 14, and who does get people incensed by spelling dem name wrong ALL DE EFFING TIME or by describing them as a 510lb of lard or calling dem an illiterate rented jackass (thanks Theophillus) and you trying to get me vex?
Heheheheh
To expose meself?
A likkle insignificunt poochlcker like you?
I, Piece the Legend, does eat badjohns dat bigger dan you as horse divers! Heheheheh
Do you think that the world has stopped still WHILE YOUR MUGABE REGIME HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH WASTE FOOP IDEAS TO BUILD ISLANDS OFF BARBADOS?
What I have written IF NOT TRUE, den it is good hollywood script for fiction yes?
The political pronouncements WILL COME TO PASS, I shall see to that!
Heheheheh
My advice to Senator Caswell heheheh leg we leave dat dere
Wunna wondering how ???
IS WUNNA ON TARGET FOR 2021? But right now judging from the Central Bank Report de Mugabe plan is fast fading
http://imgur.com/gallery/FtqYJWz
You think bajans want a Prime Minister FOR LIFE?
All that the DLP needs to do is help de ole man spread that message!
Heheheheh
@ Northern
To be honest I would be equally as concerned if the forecast were the other way around. It is because we are a small predictable economy that the variance needs explaining. Anyhow don’t mind time flies and we will in a few months know who was right or wrong. What I will say is if the GOV comes this year and revises his projections downward, it would be the 4th year in a row that this would have happened.
Are you starting to see a trend here yet?
As an aside, if you wish to see some of the real world challenges, earlier today was the GEL AGM. The relevance of Barbados to their top line and profits has decreased steadily. They hold small amounts of public debt instruments, in ‘the islands’, but not in Barbados. Their future? They spoke of Guyana, they spoke of the sale by Lufthansa of their flight kitchen division, esp in Latin America; they spoke of making cocoa in Ecuador and nanotechnology in Canada more profitable.
Point being…investing in anything new in Barbados is not on their horizon. And this from an organization, one of the few remaining on the BSE, with a share price that is now trading at 23x earnings. When the Board was asked how they proposed to fund new endeavours, they replied, excellent banking relations and an overliquidity in Bim !!!
Point…you don’t mess with the mindset of people… and suddenly expect a change in the administrators of the GoB will alter a corporation’s investment focus.
The damage done to the Barbados brand will haunt it for years to come. (timeline purposefully omitted)
@ Piece the Legend,
Remember “O S A father of first world Barbados and Prime Minister for life” ?
Now you coming with another ” Prime Minister For Life ” lol
hants1 = Hants
@JohnA
don’t bitch about trends, use them to your own advantage??
When did you clue into the fact the former MoF was OFF by massive amounts in almost every revenue and expense projection? Did you note the debt growth? Did you use it to your advantage?
Do you know the average person’s attention span to such topics is negligible. So the forecast is ‘adjusted’ later. If you already factored that in, you are ahead of many.
@DAVID
“enter BERT to bolster foreign reserves”
This is a prime example of the VOODOO ECONOMICS if you believe BERT INCREASED FOREIGN RESERVES. BERT has merely delayed the payment of foreign reserve payments owing giving the illission of an increase in the reserves.These debt payments are still due tomorrow at inflated rates with inflated interest. Nothing has changed other than undisciplined government has went out and borrowed more forgien currency adding to the debt problem which will come due in the future at inflated prices.
VOODOO ECONOMICS at work by undisciplined, uneducated corrupt politicians.
More Bajans loss their jobs. Hopefully they will be employed when the “growth ” start.
Black Bess files for bankruptcy
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/01/31/black-bess-files-for-bankruptcy/
@ Northern Observer
Key phrase “the damage done to the Barbados brand….”. Very insightful. There are some intangible assets that decision makers should never mess with.
@ Northern.
You are correct in that like GEL the same dark clouds that they are avoiding others will too.
I remember when years back a central bank report was what businesses and investors planned with. Plus in the days of Tom, if an annual performance fell short of a central bank report he would rip hell, as he held great faith in the report.
Thing is though it’s common place now in every aspect of government to accept a low pass mark. The Transport Board fails to meet it’s numbers, they come for a supplementary. Same is true for CBC and all the other money pits we blindly throw money into. It’s now become the norm to do as you like and worry about it later in government. At some point and at sometime, some entity has to say being close is not the same as actually being there.
As for Sinkler about 5 years ago I said at a party that the government is going to default on its bonds. People there said I was talking nonesence and that they had in fact increased their holdings in them, as they were offering a great rate of return. Well today many have been forced to make serious sacrifices to live monthly.
My point is that we get comfortable in what we are told and become complacent. We stop asking questions and demanding data. From there unfortunately it’s all down hill.
@Vincent
Did you listen to the President of the BEC today? He expressed concern Barbadians not borrowing or the banks not lending.
@ Wily e Coyote
I can only assume that you are fully retired now and wont be taking any more consultancies.
How did I arrive at this conclusion?
You said AND I QUOTE
“…Nothing has changed other than undisciplined government has went out and borrowed more foreign currency adding to the debt problem which will come due in the future at inflated prices.
VOODOO ECONOMICS at work by undisciplined, uneducated corrupt politicians…”
You can be assured that the poochlicker supporters of Mugabe Mottley WILL CARRY YOUR WORDS OF TRUTH back to her tonight self so you will get some nasty looks directed at you IN PUBLIC PLACES!
@ David BU at 9 : 03 PM
I did not hear him. This has been the situation for many years now. What do you expect in an economic and social climate such as this?
@Vincent
You agree the lack of a borrowing appetite by Barbadians is an indicator of confidence level?
@ David Bu
On the contrary, it is an indicator of no confidence.
@ David January 31, 2020 9:03 PM
What’s going on with the government’s plan to restructure the many fiscally parasitic entities it has to carry on its back?
Many of those State-funded agencies either have to be disbanded or merged into more affordable and productive entities before the government can convince the IMF it means business.
This is over 5 years that this exercise has been avoided like a political plague and except for a few window dressing gestures nothing substantive has been achieved.
The private-sector driven economy is not expanding at the rate necessary to continue carrying such a massive overhead called the non-essential services (luxuries) in the public sector.
Just hope that the goodly Dr. Greenidge does not get blindsided with ‘special’ favours of “wink, wink nudge, nudge” to allow the current administration to ‘evade’ making the necessary economic but, inevitably, politically unpopular decisions.
Fortunately, in the interest of the country’s survival, the current administration has the political capital to sacrifice a few political lambs to the electoral slaughter.
From a clean sweep of 30 to a drop of 18 is still a ‘winning number’.
@Miller January 31, 2020 9:58 PM
You are one of the few on this blog who remained constant in your outlook on the Barbados economy over the last decade. Do you expect the country to escape the clutches of the IMF during the term of the present government?
@VC
and I wasn’t referring to the debt restructuring.re brand.
These days I can no longer cash, not deposit, my mothers NIS cheque at FCB. They’ll deposit it. Without deep investigation, the blame is laid upon Republic. Transfers that used to be completed in hours, are now taking days, and nobody seems to know why. All of a sudden there are charges for online bill payments. The system seems to be cracking?
“More Bajans loss their jobs. Hopefully they will be employed when the “growth ” start. Black Bess files for bankruptcy.”
@ Hants
Black Bess filing for bankruptcy should not surprise anyone.
As the article mentioned, some time in the 1990s, Roger Manning closed the operations of RM Construction Ltd. and shipped his equipment to St. Vincent, until he re-opened under a new name, Black Bess Quarry and Construction Ltd.
I understand from a former employee, there was a Black Bess group of companies, which included Black Bess Farms, Pavements and Foundations, Garbage Master Ltd., Black Bess Quarry, Black Bess Construction, another one that deals specifically with premixing and precasting concrete and a few others.
What I found amazing was that employment for these companies were provided through another “shell company” called M.R Administrative Services Ltd. M.R was responsible recruiting employees and processing the payroll and would invoice the companies the amount for wages and salaries, in addition to a “processing fee” and VAT.
So, in other words, truck driver John Browne, for example, was not employed by Black Bess Quarry, he was employed by M.R to provide truck driver services for Black Bess Quarry.
Then there was the issue of trucks and equipment being owned by personal companies established by the Mannings and leased to the Black Bess subsidiary companies.
For example, Trevor Manning is the managing director of Garbage Master Ltd. He would buy 3 skip trucks, establish a company, let’s say for argument’s sake, called T.M Holdings Ltd., through which he would lease them to Garbage Master for a weekly or monthly fee.
At one stage some of the trucks were owned by Black Bess Farms and leased to the quarry. The mini excavators, D9 caterpillar bulldozer, trucks, tractors, equipment, etc would be owned by a Roger Manning company, named R.M Holdings, for example, and leased to the quarry or construction company.
I was also told Wayne Manning is an architect by profession….. and, although he is the CEO of Black Bess Quarry, he would provide those services, job estimates etc, to BBQ, through a personal company established specifically for that purpose. BBQ also subcontracts another one of his personal companies to provide construction services.
These guys were essentially “stealing from themselves” for years. If this information is true (and doubt it isn’t), my only concern is these companies may not have any assets. Therefore, the displaced employees may have to rely on the NIS tribunal.
Any bet some time in the future, these guys will reopen another company under a different name.
The long and short being that more barbadians would be put on the breadline
All the other information does not give any comfort to those employees who were on Black Bess payroll and had a source for their living
I doubt if one questioned any of Black Bess employees and told them about Black Bess history of economic or financial wheel and deal they would care
@ Artaxerxes February 1, 2020 6:59 AM
“These guys were essentially “stealing from themselves” for years. If this information is true (and doubt it isn’t), my only concern is these companies may not have any assets. Therefore, the displaced employees may have to rely on the NIS tribunal.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Only goes to show the extent of white collar crime covered up in Barbados (including the euphemistic version called corporate infelicities).
The main concern is whether the relevant contributions (both Ee and Er) were paid over to the NIS.
Don’t the NIS Act and the Companies Act put the responsibility of settlement of NIS liabilities on the shoulders of the Directors of the company or companies involved?
Only goes to show the extent of white collar including corporate crime in Barbados.
@Miller
Government is the biggest delinquent. Who will set the example? The job of caretaker of the people’s lifeline is serious business.
>
Surprise to read the 6:59 a.m. post.
If this type of behavior is known, then we should be able to do something about it. At least increase the level of oversight so as to ensure the required payments are being made to the government.
In my first Job in the US, I was working for a company TS that went bankrupt. We went to the office and the owner told us we could continue working toncomplete task for clients as his other company TS was not bankrupt.
When the biweekly pay day time came up we were told we were employees of the T***S which was bankrupt and could not be paid. The only person who stayed on after that was a Chinese national who was being sponsored for a green card.
T*S = T Systems
TS = T Services
That “SOB” was thinking up the scam as he was creating these two companies.
I am surprise at what is happening to my text on BU.
I review and yet I see typos.
I did not bold and yet I see bold text,
All TS had three *’s between them T * * * S
(Reviewed)
Piece i only have to respond to your diatribe and like the madman you are you respond and i will continue to yank your chain.Personally i do not give a damn what you say or call Ms Mottley as some from the Dems did likewise and look where they are today.Ms Mottley and her government which i support were legitimately elected and there is not a DAMN THING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT.When an election is called and bajsns feel like a change is necessary then so be it. However your daily ranting and raving will not change itOn top of this you are not the blogmaster and you cannot STOP ,FRIGHTEN OR IMPRESS ME CAPICE.As i asked have you bought those toilet seats yet? Now be a good boy and go take your meds jackass.
“Only goes to show the extent of white collar crime covered up in Barbados (including the euphemistic version called corporate infelicities).”
@ Miller
Your February 1, 2020 9:13 AM contribution clearly indicates, unlike the resident yard-fowl, you’ve understood the point I was trying to make.
What they were doing was unethical…… and may not be considered as “white collar crime” or illegal..
I’m sure you’re aware the BBQL, Black Bess, St. Peter building was sold to JADA Construction and this should have been some indication to employees, relative to the direction the company was taking. Additionally, the company’s business model was sustainable to the directors, but unsustainable to the overall company and employees over the long-term.
These white owned companies don’t take caring for their employees beyond keeping them happy enough to continue working and being loyal to the company.
I’m sure BBQL already made provisions for its white employees and I won’t be surprised if Wayne Manning, for example, forms partnerships with his white employees to establish new businesses providing similar services to that of BBQL……. which will no doubt be patronized and subcontracted by white people and businesses respectively.
@ David February 1, 2020 9:27 AM
That’s not the impression conveyed by the current Chairperson.
All is well with the ‘soul’ of the NIS is the prevailing political mantra.
BTW, what are the investment opportunities available to the NIS given the current climate in which government paper is surrounded by a cordon sanitaire to contain the financial corona virus which has infected the country’s fiscal body.
@ Theo
Thanks. I thought it was only me. I think people are interfering with copy. More importantly, we need a radical new companies Act. The one we have was framed in 1920. We also need to impose bans on company directors, especially those involved in phoenix companies.
@Miller
Has the NIS investment policy changed?
One should expect the practice to continue to invest in illiquid assets.
Recently we were advised of NIS loan to construct the Pine Fire Station. Subject to correction, 20 million.
Good news. The problem of increasing crime in Barbados has been solved.
Now you will no longer be able to grab your paper and see crimes in Barbados “on the front page”.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/02/01/keep-crime-off-front-page-fingall/
Keep it to blurb or single line.
Man short – story to follow.
Woman beaten -story to follow.
Why stop there, stay tune for
Keep crime off the airwaves
Don’t mention it and it does not exist.
Watching 1984 come true
You are aware you have attempted to sensationalize what Mac Fingall is reported to have said?
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/02/01/new-electricity-project-to-bring-saving
Are locals being trained to run this plant when it is completed, or do we have to wait until a “national gets a kick in his ass” to realize the game plan need updating
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.