Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in 2019 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.
Central Bank of Barbados’ Review of the Barbados Economy in 2019.pdf (4.16 MB)
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@William
We have reached the tipping point. A new normal is required and it must be driven by a leadership in the country that is not averse to walking a less trodden path. Leadership in this case is doing what is best for the country and not self preservation. Have not even touched professional integrity and anchoring position in ethics.
@ Hants
That is the governor taking out a little insurance for “if ” the don’t meet the growth target of 1.5%
“Em ain’t my fault wunna should of start the projects earlier and stop selling Corona Beer!” lol
John
I understand your thesis however the basis foundation of an economy withstanding negative mitigating factors depends on growth
One can look back at the OSA and place barbados economy into a well fertile ground for some level of economic growth mostly dependable of positive outlook from the global economy hence employment was low tourism flourished and govt was able to give back more monetary which benefitted the people
Fast forward to 2008 the global financial wheels came to a grinding halt
All loans external and internal has to be met by govt
Govt has to make a choice between paying debt and increasing salaries
@ William Skinner January 30, 2020 11:08 AM
Guv Haynes has made a smooth transition into the role of the dummy working for the ventriloquist MoF.
Although not as politically-exposed as his rebel predecessor he would soon find himself as the whipping boy and scapegoat for his political master(s) when the winds of economic change fails to blow through that pipeline of investment projects as investors, real or imagined, begin to lose faith in the long-term sustainability of the current Bajan model of tourism development.
At a quick glance seems Corp taxes were inexplicably higher, by some margin, but will drop sharply in 2020; and the old nemesis, Transfers and Subsidies, is growing. Unfunded public pensions are the reported culprit. No time for the Q&A, did anybody mention the NIS?
Farage was not the founder of UKIP. This is fake news. That is the problem with Googling. Alan Sked founded UKIP>
Alan Sked founded Ukip as ‘a non-sectarian, non-racist party with no prejudices against foreigners or lawful minorities of any kind’.
The founder of Ukip is trying to prove to me that, when he was in charge, the party wasn’t racist. He’s also trying to demonstrate that his Ukip wouldn’t have had its snout in the European parliament’s expenses trough, unlike its 2014 incarnation. “I had one here not so long ago,” says Alan Sked, professor of international history at the London School of Economics, as he searches for a membership application form as evidence.
It’s a tough task: his office, the LSE’s Room E503, is a stranger to the declutterer’s art – it’s not so much overwhelmed with books and papers as booby-trapped by them.
Room E503 is historically significant for modern British politics. It was here that Sked formed the Anti-Federalist League in 1991; here, in 1993, that the Anti-Federalist League became the UK Independence Party. It is here, too, that Sked is dreaming up his third British political party. Called New Deal, its aim is to do to Labour what Ukip did to the Tories – embarrass it electorally and whip up latent euroscepticism. He’s considering standing against Ed Miliband in Doncaster in next year’s general election.
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But, first, where is that piece of paper? “You see,” Sked says as he hunts, “up until 1997 I managed to keep Ukip a liberal – with a small ‘l’ – centre, moderate party. Our membership application form from the time – ah, here it is! – shows how much it has changed.”
He hands me the form. It makes for fascinating reading. In 1993, along with backing British withdrawal from the EU, prospective members had to be sympathetic to the following: “It is a non-sectarian, non-racist party with no prejudices against foreigners or lawful minorities of any kind. It does not recognise the legitimacy of the European parliament and will send representatives only to the British parliament in Westminster.”
“They got rid of all that after I left,” says Sked, who resigned the leadership shortly after the 1997 general election. He claims that the tolerant, liberal and democratic party he founded was taken over by rightwingers and that, outgunned and outmanoeuvred by Farage and other leading figures after that election, he had no alternative but to quit.
“They took out the bit about no prejudices against lawful minorities and, as soon as I disappeared, they all decided they wanted to go to the European parliament and take their expenses.”
Alan Sked at the launch of the UK Independence party in 1993. Photograph: STR News/Reuters
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But those changes alone don’t make 2014 Ukip racist, do they? “The de facto leader of Ukip since 1999 has been a racist political failure,” Sked counters. He means, of course, Nigel Farage. But even if Farage’s recent statements about not wanting to live next door to Romanians suggest he is xenophobic, is there any proof he was racist when he and Sked worked together in the mid-1990s? Sked laughs at the question and recalls an incident from 1997 when the two men were arguing over the kind of candidates that Ukip should have standing at the looming general election. “He wanted ex-National Front candidates to run and I said, ‘I’m not sure about that,’ and he said, ‘There’s no need to worry about the nigger vote. The nig-nogs will never vote for us.’”
Farage has denied that he said these words and always insists that he is not racist.
RE…Hal Austin January 30, 2020 2:42 PM “Farage was not the founder of UKIP.”
“WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS PLAY THE RACE CARD”…RIGHT HAL!
‘Nigel Farage, I founded the Anti-Federalist League in 1991 to take Britain out of what became the European Union. The party was renamed UKIP – the UK Independence party – in 1993 and was a thoroughly mainstream one.
In 1993 he became a founding member of a new party – the United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP, which had one principal goal: to get Britain out of the European Union.
Nigel Farage: ‘I do feel a sense of achievement’ 30 Jan 2020
Brexit Day draws near and the British MEPs have been packing up their things and saying their goodbyes in Brussel.
Nigel Farage, who led the British flag-waving gesture as he finished his final speech, said: “We have a British Prime Minister of a Conservative Party saying all the same things I’ve been saying for years. So I do feel a sense of achievement.
”
“We love Europe, just don’t like the European Union”…bad project.
EU ECONOMIC POLICY HAS HELD THE UK BACK AND COST US £82 BILLION OVER TWO DECADES
£82 BILLION REASONS TO BREXIT…
CAN YOU PERCEIVE HAL THAT THE BRITTS WILL BE BETTER OFF INVESTING THEIR OWN MONEY?
The financial crisis, the UK economy has outperformed all the major EU economies including Germany. Overall it has grown 19% over that period compared with a 13% rise in the Eurozone. That 6% differential is worth £120bn, or to illustrate what that sum represents, just less than the entire NHS budget.
For the British people, the beneficial result of the country’s performance has been more jobs. The UK has materially outperformed the EU in both job creation and reduction of unemployment. UK unemployment is at its lowest level since 1974. French unemployment is 2.5 times the UK level, Spain 4 times and Greece 5 times higher. Since the EU referendum, 750,000 more people are in work in the UK. This contrasts with HM Treasury forecast of 500,000 job losses following a Leave vote – meaning its prediction was an embarrassing 1.2 million out.
Despite misplaced criticisms, job growth has been across the board and not just in the ‘gig economy’. More people work in manufacturing, construction, utilities, IT, health, education and the arts sectors than before the referendum. UK wage growth has started to pick up too and is growing in real terms, while the UK’s minimum wage is the second most generous in the EU.
Will no one ever ask how come Barbados never revisited a national bank ? I for one would prefer to put my savings (in both Barbados and foreign currencies) in a local bank. Wouldn’t this be an obvious way to raise money for infrastructure and other investments ? Help
@PPP
Elementary. Why do our authorities not see this obvious need. We can develop the 18 post offices in to balance sheet post office banks. There must be a deeper reason.
@ Miller
When everybody was cussing Delisle Worell , I made the point over and over that the governor of the Central bank cannot set government economic policy.
Haynes May get points for being mild mannered but he is in the same boat. Dr. Mascoll’s dream is to be governor if the central bank; Arthur started to pick fights with Worell and then Mia jumped in. The moment Hayes steps over the crease he would be sent packing.
@ Hal Austin has argued that the role of the central bank needs to be redefined but we like to pretend that it’s always ok to take the medicine even if the patient is in westbury.
Jokers on this blog questioned Worell’s scholarship and soon, to protect their masters ,they will go after Haynes.
It’s the minister of finance who determines policy. The Governor of the CB is nothing more than a highly paid technocrat.
The reality is this: the economy is essentially stagnant and we have bills to pay. Any other conclusion is hog wash.Unless projects are started in quick fashion, we are in for a very rough ride.
$100 x 1.5% growth = $ 101.50(Quote)
????????
Hear Skinner Dr Worrell his buddy must be having a good laugh. Imagine a man who knew better just to keep his job in my view, got together with the ex finance minister and virtually deztroyed the country with 23 downgrades to junk bond status had to be fired. On top of that jumps in bed with the creditors with his inside knowledge to squeeze the country and Skinner thinks hr should be laughing amazing. Then he places Mr Arthur a top notch economost in the same sentence as then incompetent ex fi nance minister.Skinner you really should be in comedyfest.As far as the economy goes once projects stsrt to come on stream things should start to look up this year in my view.
@ Lorenzo
Speaking metaphorically , how can you say that a cosmetologist is in the same category as a quack?
Let me break it down: Arthur the top notch economist and superb judge of character dressed up things. Sinkler was just a fake an impostor in the field of economics. Do you get it buddy?
In terms of the economy we all agree that once the projects get going things should improve.
By 2033 all should be well.
As for Worrell I don’t recall him calling the people he went and worked for “despots “ and “unfit” and he never said they can’t be “trusted”.
As always a pleasant evening to you and yours. You are such a pleasant chap.
Arthur a top economist? Where is the evidence? He has an MA in economics, does that make him a ‘top’ economist? Does an MA make you ‘top’ in anything? Even political sociology from the London School of Economics?
@ Mariposa
While it is true the crash of 2008 affected everyone globally you have to admit that by 2011 most of the economies had returned to growth. Barbados however stayed in a zero growth economy right up to the end of 2019. Now we have the GOV saying that if all goes well growth will hit 1.5% this year.
Let’s all hope so.
@ Hal.
The example of an economy being worth $100 growing by 1.5% in a year would result in it being worth $101.50 at the end of the 12 month period. Before inflation is applied of course.
@ John H
Not nitpicking, but 100×1.5 =150, not 101.50
Hal never said 1.5 I said 1.5%. Had I of said 150% that then would of been the same as multiplying it by the 1.5 you speak of.
#lordhavemercy #.07007
@ John A
You are correct. I just read the 1.5. I need a new lap top. Apologies.
Hal no problem at.
Skinner expected rrsppnse from you neither you or your buddy Austin can dispute that Mr Arthur led Barbados from the depths of 1994 with another of your Dem ex PM now Sir Lloyd to many years of prosperity but i forgot you werr not here just ask any of the locals. This was real growth not imagined .In my view the main reason Mr Arthur lost in 2008 was because bajans were swayed by the wild promises of another in my view incompetent in Mr Thompson whose only claim to fame was to state that school leavers should work for bus fare and lunch money along with a suggestion of corruption but not a boy lock up.Therefore Mr Skinner, Mr Arthur was no cosmetologist but a giant compared to the likes of Mr Sinckler and Mr Thompson whom he beat twice and had another for him in 2003 when he ran away.As for Mr Worrell he banned journalist from his news conferences and showed he was not to be trusted by numping into bed with the creditors. Did i break it down simple enough for you Skinner?As for the economy i am not surprise at nothing the naysayers or you say since i beleive you would like the country to recover in 2023 but i beleieve it will start this year 2020.
Hal.
Stop nitpicking.
100X 1.5=150.
1.5%=1.5/100. That’s the definition of a percentage.
100×1.51%=1000x(1.5/100)=1.5
If we add this to 100 we have 101.5.
John A’s mathematics was better than yours,
Now, I see John’s response.
Still submitting because you were punching well below your weight… or exhibiting the Bajan Condition 🙂
1.51=15
1000=100
Fell into the same trap as Hal.
He was even better than I am.
forget it. 15* =1.5
Digging a hole all by myself
I dun
@ Theo
If it’s any consolation that is a very easy mistake to make so don’t sweat it.
No one saying it but officially we are out of recession
There was positivismi growth in the 4 quater
@ John 2
To be deemed out of recession the rule is the same as going in. 3 consecutive quarters of positive growth.
That means if you include the last quarter of 2019, the first and second quarter of 2020 must each show positive growth for us to be out of recession. So if we manage that then after the quarter ending June 30th, one can then make that claim and be correct not before.
John A
That rule is old school.
See what de ole man mean?
Hee Hee the first of the Rented jackasses has left us for his new job!
And He left the moron Hee Haw THE REAL JACKASS AND RENTED MULE WHICH WE SHALL BEAT, BECAUSE IT IT RENTED!!!
Observe the reasoning style and writing content of Hee Haw!
Cant write, cant spell, cant string a good secondary school comprehension sentence together!
Enjoy the remaining braying by thus jackass!
Heheheheh
@ Mariposa
You are a “self disqualified goat, WITH SHEEP PARTS”
Heheheheh
Whenever you get the inclination to respond or just remark about something dealing with the Barbados economy just look at this picture ok?
Confused by Bank’s forecast
I am concerned about the quality of forecasting analysis at the Central Bank of Barbados.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave a growth rate estimate of 0.6 per cent for 2020 in its economic outlook for Barbados, which seems quite reasonable to me in the context of our ongoing economic austerity programme.
The Governor of the Central Bank has now given a Central Bank forecast of between 1.25 and 1.75 per cent. This is a significant difference from the IMF forecast at a time when we are trying to achieve a six per cent surplus.
I would like to ask what scientific methodology and forecasting criteria did the Central Bank use to arrive at its overly optimistic forecast.
Is it based on sectoral and real GDP trend analysis, external or exogenous factors, behaviour of the world economy, concrete investment analysis, or just plain feel-good guesstimates and promises of things to be done?
In the modern scientific world, one cannot depend on feel-good guesstimates or expectations. The Central Bank has to come better.
– Professor Michael Howard
@ Theo
I am sure @John A’s maths are much better than mine, I spent very little time in school. But I explained the mistake. The percentage symbol did not show up on my machine as I have pointed out.
@ Lorenzo
You said Mr Arthur was a top economist; all I asked for was the evidence of this. Is it because he has an MA in economics? Where is the evidence. Stop playing politics. I am not a politician.
@ David January 31, 2020 5:07 AM
Why is the Prof. confused?
Isn’t this par for the course of that fast-becoming irrelevant organization?
What’s so new about the doctoring of numbers to meet the agenda of the pols in power.
Isn’t the Guv a created dummy of the MoF?
Weren’t similar cases of contrived analyses performed with the unemployment figures and the foreign reserves?
Isn’t the current report another ‘doctored’ version of previous propaganda presentations?
As Bugs Bunny would say:
“What’s up, doc?”
Governor Haynes has an opportunity to walk a different path. He reports to the MoF but at this time the people needs a Governor who will be matter of fact with the analysis. We do not need more of the same.
@DAVID
“Confused by Bank’s forecast”
Why are you CONFUSED, it’s VOODOO ECONOMICS, same old same old.
Report not worthy of any comments.
@ David BU at 8 :59 AM
Why do you not leave the Governer , CBB alone? He has given his report. You are free to agree or not agree with certain or all aspects of his report. You should not, however, expect him to conform to your concept of what the G Governor, CBB should be.
Where are the unemployment numbers
Is the media so stupified that the do not understand the relevance of unemployment and the necessity to create an environment for jobs by which an economy can grow
@Vincent
He is a public official who has an important role to play in the prevailing environment. He is not a robot.
@ Wily Coyote at 9 :18 AM
I agree with you. It is only a forecast. Any number can play. It would be pure coincidence if either the IMF or CBB forecast turns out to be accurate. Even then one can always question the validity of the generally accepted metric.
@ David BU
I can assure you he is no robot;so you cannot wind him up and get the results you expect.
@ David January 31, 2020 9:27 AM
That is one job which, in its present format, is ripe for AI replacement; just like bean counters and, soon, economists.
Why not dress up an inflatable mannequin of a voice actor programmed with the ‘right’ algorithms in a well-tailored business suit and save a lot of PR (and manpower) costs?
@Vincent
A forecast is based on informed assumptions. It is Professor Michael Howard with more credintials than this blogmaster also making the inquiry.
an wen de hurricane come…..
an wen de earfquake come….
an wen de virus stop airplanes from comin….
an effin de mega projects doan start….
or effin de drought worsens….. or….or
buh doan mine me.I jus forecasting de possibilities or improbabilities but
a CBB guvnah has to be careful to deliver a report dat wud not cause wunnah
to line up de length a broad street to tek wunna money out de bank an stuff it undah de mattruss.
@ David Bu
You made the remarks on BU so I will respond to you. Are you a messenger or mouth piece for other commenters?
What lead you to believe that the Governor , CBB does not use “informed assumptions”?. Unless we are all congenital idiots we all use “informed assumptions”.
@ Hants at 10 :00 AM
Which parish you come from? When you come to” we gathering” I want you to sing that Calypso. Um sweet for days.
We are going to have Digital money soon. That does not require any mattress to hide um under.
But you must sing da Calypso on Risk Management and natural and human vulnerabilities.
@Vincent
One can reasonably arrive at such a conclusion based on the variance in the forecast compared to that of the IMF. Given the intimacy IMF technocrats have with our economy because we have entered IMF sponsored BERT led by local Dr. Kevin Greenidge, what are we to think?
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Poverty levels keep rising and no talk of creating growth
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