Submitted by Pachamama
As Donald Trump enters the lion’s den this night all bets are off that he could escape with no further damage to his already tenuous hold on power. Indeed, if there was ever a textbook case as to how not to run a country Trump has thusly so provided.
In these short notes we will show that on all sides Donald Trump is a cornered beast. We will demonstrate this on the political, the economic, the social, the technological, the physical environment, the legal, the military, trade, intelligence and the diplomatic. We will argue that anybody able to avoid this, a certain fate waiting, would be rightfully deemed the political Houdini of all times.
The speech itself, and this was news to Trump, could have only have been scheduled, in the first place, with the acquiescence of the Speaker. This ‘detail’ needed to make Trump’s acquaintance. Recall though, that Trump’s political problems extend well beyond mere scheduling difficulties.
Even while he held control of all the levers of government he was unable to secure funding for his signature promise – the wall. In addition, his approval ratings have been stagnant at best and he has not been able to hire or retain the critical number of competent senior level aides to bring the required competence to his administration.
In economy, it was also news to Trump that he was not in dominant control of the Federal Reserve. As a result of this duality we had the Fed implementing a policy which his administration suggested was inappropriate. More worrying for Trump is that leading economic figures are now joining the bandwagon of those who have suggested a recession this year. This has implications for his political fortunes in 2020, should he run.
Trump is also encumbered by the social environment. His intelligence briefings would no doubt include the dislocations occurring in France – the Yellow Vest demonstrations and the disquiet in the UK which may lead to riots depending on the outcome of the Brexit imbroglio. These may be coming to a city near him sooner than later as the economic situation within the USA is far worse than the erroneous government statistics are leading on. Expect contagion! Riots in the land, you say!
On the technological front, Trump has created problems or found difficulties with which he has not been able to show any measurable progress in last two (2) years. These relate to the rights of subscribers. Whether companies like Facebook, Google and others should be public utilities.
Of course, on the legal side, we already know the world of hurt he has been in. We also presume that Mueller is likely to bring down some more indictments in the coming months – landing not too far from his cold heart. These to add to a growing number of Trump acolytes already ensnared in a dragnet intended to only allow the small fry and the cooperators to escape.
Maybe Trump entered the White House with the expectation that on the military front he could deploy America’s might to frighten the nation’s foes into easy concessions. Thus far, there have been no thunderous breakthroughs with the DPRK, Syria, Iran, Russian or anybody else. In all circumstances, conditions are far worse than when Trump entered 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The master negotiator he has not been!
As one of the first orders of business was the exit from the Climate Accords. Since then there has been no American sponsored successor agreement. This action still seems like an anti-Obama reaction with no intension whatsoever to offer another plan.
To say diplomacy is not Trump’s or his senior official’s forte would be an understatement. But when you add Bolton, Abrams, Pompeo and Kushner to the jambalaya you have a recipe for a Venezuela, another Vietnam, a murder in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey. The UN sponsored JCPOA with Iran was also unceremoniously dispensed with. All of America’s ‘former’ allies under Trumpism have been strained. Trump and statements relating to America’s exceptionalism have been laughed at by hundreds of world countries at the UN.
Even on another thorny issue – trade. Trump has not made any breakthroughs with China or Europe or anybody else. All he’s done this far is to make minor changes to the agreement with Canada and Mexico. And Mexico is not paying for his wall as promised, by him.
Again, nobody was looking for too much ‘intelligence’ from Trump. But a war with the Deep State apparatus can never be won. Kennedy knew that. Even if you could win, you still come out the loser. In this environment Trump is in multiple wars with the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and all the other 17 alphabet-soup of spy agencies.
Of course, Donald Trump has never been known to pay much attention to all of these concentric circles of analysis. Therefore, is most likely to wing-it in the vain hope that somehow he, the master-salesman, could deliver this horrible situation to his wider audience with a PR victory. However, we are getting the feeling that a critical mass has now seen the ‘con which has always been Don’ and that additional damage, to his position, will be inflicted this night.
There may well be several books in this presidency that could withstand the vagaries of time and political science. However, if there were to be a single case study in how not to run an administration that may be the monograph which could be the one to be well-compared with that classical work by Niccolo Machiavelli (1469-1527), this would be it.