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A majority of Barbadians continue to analyse US politics with a level of naiveté and hypocrisy that belies our touted level of education. The outcome of the 2024 US Election between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris cannot be rationally discussed without a good understanding of the US political market.

Donald Trump’s popularity in the U.S. stems from a mix of political, cultural, and personal factors, which have maintained his appeal among many Americans, even years after his presidency:

  • Appeal to Discontent: Trump’s 2016 campaign capitalized on feelings of disillusionment with the political establishment, positioning himself as a “disruptor” who would challenge the status quo. Many supporters feel he understands their frustrations and voices their grievances. His message that is not from the Washington pool of politicians resonates with many who have become cynical and apathetic about politics.
  • Media Savvy: Trump has an undeniable talent for capturing media attention. Whether it’s through traditional news outlets, social media, or his own platform, Trump stays in the public eye. This visibility reinforces his influence and keeps him relevant.
  • Identity Politics: For some, Trump’s appeal is rooted in a vision of American identity that prioritizes traditional values and national pride. His policies on immigration, religion, and “America First” economics resonate with voters who feel left behind or culturally marginalized by globalist trends.
  • Polarization and Loyalty: The polarized nature of U.S. politics has created strong loyalty among Trump supporters, who often view attacks on him as attacks on themselves. This “us versus them” mentality deepens support and makes criticism of Trump seem like partisan attacks.
  • Mistrust of Mainstream Media and Government: Trump’s constant messaging about “fake news” and a “deep state” has cultivated a mistrust of traditional news sources and government agencies among his base. This distrust reinforces their loyalty, as they see Trump as an outsider combating a biased system.
  • Policy Achievements: Some supporters genuinely approve of Trump’s policy actions, such as tax cuts, deregulation, criminal justice reform, and his foreign policy moves. They feel these initiatives benefited the economy and American interests globally.

Trump’s popularity is what it is because he’s seen as more than just a political figure to his supporters; he’s a symbol of resistance, a voice for overlooked Americans, and a controversial but charismatic leader who keeps them engaged. One should not view politics anywhere through an emotional lens.


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342 responses to “Trump vs Harris – the winner is…?”


  1. Pachamama
    November 4, 2024 at 4:42 pm
    Rate This

    We have said before that Trump is most probably the victor in this petite bourgeoisie democratic, political theatrical production.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Let’s assume you are right, and Trump wins the popular vote 70/30 or maybe 80/20.

    That would mean he has united the country and there would be no need for a civil war.


  2. Remember, 74% of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction!!


  3. Do the math.

    If there are 77 million early voters split about evenly among Republicans, Democrats and Independents and 74% of the electorate feel the country is going the wrong way, then 3/4 x 1/3 of the Independents who have voted have probably voted Republican.

    The Republicans probably have their 1/3 plus 3/4 x1/3 of the independents.

    Of the total early voters, the Republicans probably have 33% + 25% = 58% of the 77 million early voters.

    It is the Republicans who mainly vote on the last day so if we say that 60% of those who will vote tomorrow are Republican, then the Republicans will end up with just under 60% of the popular vote.

    If the numbers are right, then this election is too big to rig, and Trump is the next president in a landslide.

    What will the Democrats do to prevent Trump being the next president?


  4. Ronnie Thorne and Ralph Yearwood of the Denser Labour Party should cash in on all the hype of running in a race and sell hats trainers and T-shirts to mugs who feel empowered when they wear it in a crowd of people all wearing the same gear in the greatest show on earth for big people over 18


  5. I conducted my own personal poll of people who voted early and 100% voted Kamala

    if you extrapolate these poll results of these 2 across all the people registered to vote in United States this means that Kamala will win by a landslide

    it’s mathematics and statistics


  6. Exclusive: Surging early vote
    77,302,480 early ballots cast. Dive into the data

    Filter by: Party registration Age Gender Vote type
    41% – Democrats
    39% – Republican
    20% – Other

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    What percentage of the 20% other, presumably Independent, is Republican?

    If you use the 74% who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction then about 15% of the other goes to Republican, so 54% of the early vote favors Trump.

    5% goes to the Democrats, so 44% of the early vote favors Democrats.

    Trump should win this at a canter if tomorrow mostly republicans vote.

    He may end up with over 54% of the popular vote.


  7. Reagan holds the record, 58.8% of the popular vote in 1984.

    He ended up with 525 electoral voted to Mondale’s 13.


  8. Reagan won 49 states out of 50!!


  9. Johnny

    “United the country”.

    Trump has no such bone in his body. When has he united anything?

    There will be no 80/20 or 70/30 in the popular vote. For the demographics preclude such.

    For the democrats, California and New York with large populations voting for Harris act to make these impossible.

    And Texas voting republican, in large numbers are factors which make your assertions nigh impossible.

    Of course, there is a possibility for a landslide within the electoral college but we doubt this will happen this time around even given how poor a candidate Harris has always been.

    Further, it’s also impossible for a racist, a fascist, a Zionist, which is Trump, to unite anybody, anything, but his narcicistic ego, especially in the midst of a genocide.


  10. The political pundits are suggesting that America is split down the centre. Most independents appear to be holding their noses to vote for less than ideal candidates.


  11. Well, we will find out tonight,

    As Rod Stewart put it, “Tonight’s the night”.

    Could be over very quickly if the cast votes are already counted.


  12. I agree with Trump on this one!!

    Kamala can’t win mathematically.

    Will she concede?

    … or will this be another 2020 repeated?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/donald-trump-tells-supporters-kamala-harris-can-t-mathematically-win-election/ar-AA1tx5uu?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=e483b3c15d2c4a85b3c32125d769480f&ei=12


  13. The Democrats need to increase the votes on polling day by millions to win this one.

    Theoretically possible but completely out of character for their electorate who are programmed to vote early.

    Their bolt is shot, the Republicans still have ammo and more of it than the Democrats.

    … alternatively, they need to change the votes already cast, possible but they may get caught.

    The total number of votes will tell you if votes were added in 2020 and if so, how many!!

    It took from 2000 to 2012 to increase the turnout by 24 million, 105 million to 129 million, about 5-6 million per cycle.

    Between 2012 to 2020 the increase was 29 million!! 129 million to 158 million, about 14-15 million per cycle, almost triple.

    Between 2012 and 2016, the increase was 129 million to 136 million, about 7 million.

    2020 should have produced 136 million+7 million = 143 Million.

    The 158 million is 15 million out of whack.

    2024 should produce 150 million, maybe 155 million.

    We will see!!!

    If the number is less, we can say that Biden’s 2020 tally was inflated by about 15 million.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections


  14. Trump may get in the 80 or 90 millions of votes, doubt he will cross 100 million but who knows.

    Harris may get 60 to 70 millions.

    The numbers indicate this is possible.

    It may be a landslide.

    At midnight last night, Trump split the New Hampshire electoral votes down the middle, in 2020 he got none, Biden “won” it by 7%.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/new-hampshire-president-results


  15. Why bother rebutting John’s incessant regressive fawning Trump reasoning you may ask as he ignores the facts when presented anyway

    During the 2020 U.S. presidential election, there were 158 million ballots cast out of 168 million registered voters.


  16. “Further, it’s also impossible for a racist, a fascist, a Zionist, which is Trump, to unite anybody, anything, but his narcicistic ego, especially in the midst of a genocide.”

    There are right wing trolls, conspiracy theorists, racists drawn to Trump.

    Truth is Trump is just another right wing troll, conspiracy theorist, racist
    who is just mirroring the white trash in a feedback loop.

    He gave a voice and platform to right wing trolls, conspiracy theorists, racists around the world.

  17. Disgusting Lies and Propaganda TV Avatar
    Disgusting Lies and Propaganda TV

    John
    November 5, 2024 at 6:37 am
    “Trump may get in the 80 or 90 millions of votes, doubt he will cross 100 million but who knows.

    @John Boy how will the Chump get those 80 – 90 million votes you are hoping Trump will get??!?!?!? By importing a combination of 15 million Chinese, Mexicans, Africans, Haitians and Ukrainians ?!?!? and then deport them after Election Day????


  18. @John Boy how will the Chump get those 80 – 90 million votes you are hoping Trump will get??!?!?!? By importing a combination of 15 million Chinese, Mexicans, Africans, Haitians and Ukrainians ?!?!? and then deport them after Election Day????

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    He already has 75 million votes from 2020 up by 12 million from 2016.

    75 + 12 = 85, simple math!!

    May do alot better and get into the 90 million plus range.

    Harris is left with the balance, 150 million – 85 million = 65 million.

    May do a lot worse!!

    The 15 million monkey votes inserted in 2020 are not going to be so easy to insert this time around and even if some could get in, they are just not going to be enough.

    The election this time may be too big to rig.

    The 21 million the Democrats brought in by air, land and sea, can’t make up that difference in this election, maybe in a couple of cycles, but not now.

    So, the deportation of the Chinese, Mexicans, Africans, Haitians and Ukrainians is almost a guaranteed fact.

    This could get ugly because Trump/Vance are not going to let up.

    We will see if the Democrats can survive long term, they probably will in a weakened state, but I think their game may be up.

    This could be the end for them, hence the attempts to destroy Trump at all costs.

    JD Vance if he gets to continue after 4 years for the next 8 years is not going to be any sweet bread, looks like he may be even worser for the Democrats than Trump.


  19. … of course I could be wrong!!!

    … but “I don thin so”.

  20. Disgusting Lies and Propaganda TV Avatar
    Disgusting Lies and Propaganda TV

    The way I see it, this is Trump vs Biden part 2 (with Kamala being Biden’s placeholder, seeing how late she entered the race but was Biden’s vice president for his entire term). Basically, this is not an election with two “fresh” faces. To be brief, it will be harder for Trump to win back the Presidency than for Kamala to loose it for the Democratic Party. @DavidBU do not confuse Trump’s popularity in the Republican party with national popularity or being constantly in the media’s spotlight with his lunacy. His popularity may have won him the 2016 election as a new candidate but ever since, Trump has shown himself to be a piss poor presidential candidate. Lest we forget he is a one term president. His 2017- 2021 presidency was controversial, He was decisively rejected in the 2020 election and lost the popular vote in both 2016 & 2020.

    In my opinion Trump has not improved his image since the 2020 election in which he was REMOVED as president only 4 years ago. In fact there can be a strong argument that it has only worsen. His MAGA message is essentially nationalist which will definitely appeal to Americans, but it will be weighed against a combination of his rhetoric (that has strong racist overtones), his personal failings (with him being a convicted felon), Trump being the leader of the Jan 6 2021 Insurrection (Coup) and many (women) believing he contributed the Roe v Wade decision being overtured.

    This though will be moderated by a Biden’s presidency which many analysts regarded as mediocre at best. Also Biden has consistently being regarded poorly as an incumbent president.

    It is this dynamic I believe is what is causing the closeness in the polls. However, anybody familiar the first past the post system knows a candidate just needs to win by one vote to carry a state. Then you have to add the peculiarities of the electoral college system in America. In my view Trump is not wining enough of the opinion polls to indicate to me that he is gaining any significant momentum to win back the Presidency. But we will see tonight when those first exit polls are broadcast to see which direction the election is heading

    My prediction is that Kamala will win the election. My observation is that she has reversed the slide Biden had in his opinion polls since he assumed the presidency.
    Trump at best may win back those marginal states that Biden won in 2020 but that is not enough. Biden got 306 electoral college vote vs Trump’s 232 in 2020. As “returning candidates”. Seeing how the polls are trending, that is too many states for Trump to reverse in 2024 to win back the Presidency.


  21. Forget the monkey polls.

    This election may have already been decided by the 81 million early votes.

    Today may just be icing.

  22. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    Yes David, “The political pundits are suggesting that America is split down the centre.”

    But of course that’s an electoral college middle of road divide. This Republican WILL NOT be a popular vote winner … that just seems inconceivable based on 1) Hillary beating him on that and then 2) Biden thrashing him too … although he increased his # of votes markedly.

    It would be shocking if he won that simple choice !

    So it comes down to how the supposed ‘independents … hold their noses to vote for less than ideal candidate’.

    Look, many Independents and (too Democrats who disavowed ideology) rang the bell for Reagan … they and similarly serious Republicans need to act sensibly now again.


  23. Path to the White House.

    It will boil down to a few so-called swing states based on historical data.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/resources/idt-0dfcfee6-7d9f-4d20-a07e-aa7b85dc56bd


  24. @John November 4, 2024 at 6:48 pm “Trump should win this at a canter if tomorrow mostly republicans vote.”

    My response. This is a big if, because what if mostly Republicans don’t vote?


  25. @John November 4, 2024 at 5:25 pm “Remember, 74% of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction!!”

    Where are you getting this statistic?


  26. Cuhdear Bajan
    November 5, 2024 at 1:41 pm
    Rate This

    @John November 4, 2024 at 5:25 pm “Remember, 74% of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction!!”

    Where are you getting this statistic?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You will see later tonight!!


  27. … or if you can’t wait, then google 74% of Americans say the country is going the wrong way.

    You will see that has been the case for maybe a year or more!!


  28. … actually as long ago as January 2022!!


  29. About 70% of Barbadians probably believe the country is going in the wrong direction but will they vote for the DLP when a general election is called. What is your point?


  30. Maybe, just maybe, somethings are wrong with all of these mainstream polls. For they often differ to the best predictor – exit polls.

    We’ve had presumably tight polls in the past which produced electoral college landslides.

    Without evidence, this writer has previously surmised that this tradition of having polls tighten every time an Election Day dawns may indeed to part of a perverse game management by pollsters, media houses, political fixers, etc

    Maybe just to create excitement and drive non voters and others generally disinterested to vote. Maybe, this writer is toooo distrustful.


  31. All of this game playing for an event which will never stop American imperial decline, prevent wars against its leading challengers, make any material differences in the lives of the 99 percent, stop the Zionist lobby from rigging the electoral system, and on and on.

    Certainly neither Trump nor Harris has the toolkit to even pretend to approach the issues around imperial demise. This pageant is nothing if not clear proof of this obvious fact.

    And even if either had such unique capacities, such a feat has never been shown to be doable within the histories of empires.

    Maybe it’s time to call in Bushie!


  32. Pachamama
    November 5, 2024 at 2:12 pm
    Rate This

    Maybe, just maybe, somethings are wrong with all of these mainstream polls.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    They were wrong in 2016, then again in 2020.

    They are wrong yet again in 2024.

    What’s the big deal.

    The polls fuel donations to political parties which fuel payments to the mainstream media which generate stories which confirm the polls.

    Everybody is wrong but real money gets spent!!


  33. David
    November 5, 2024 at 1:58 pm
    Rate This

    About 70% of Barbadians probably believe the country is going in the wrong direction but will they vote for the DLP when a general election is called. What is your point?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Who told you so?

    I’ve been reliably informed that there are only 30 people who believe the country is going in the right direction.

    The other 99.999999% feel it is going in the wrong direction.


  34. An election where one belligerent called the other Hitler and in exchange was called Stalin or Mrs Stalin.

    Even on this matter a knowledge gap was clear.

    Then the old canard that Russia was helping and preferred Trump rose it’s ugly head again.

    Even after the Mueller report in the senate gave the lie to this charge, three years ago.

    And we now know with certainty that it was Jake Sullivan as a Clinton staffer who got a democratic operative and deep state actor to organize 50 former intelligence types to concoct this lie about Russia and Trump.

    On the republican side, these kinds of October surprises are well known too. For none other than Ronald Reagan got his people to persuade the Iranians, circa 1980, to delay the hostages release as the way of sinking Jimmy Carter’s re-election bid.

    This system rots at the core!


  35. If Trump wins a lot of such people will be going to jail.


  36. So people like Blinken, the foreign Secretary, and Sullivan the national security adviser, have an interest in avoiding prison and making sure Trump loses.

    Even the Bidens could face the slammer.


  37. Now Trump, with criminal intent, took a 100 million dollar campaign contribution from the widow of Adelson in exchange for his promise to, like in the case of the Golan Heights, illegally occupied since 1967, again to gift the West Bank to the fascist Zionists and thereby supporting the annihilation of another two million Palestinians.


  38. If 74% of the electorate feels America is going the wrong way, it means 74% of the electorate are likely to vote against the incumbent!!

    Within that 74%, there will be those, both Republican and Democrat, who will never vote for Trump.

    So, they sit it out.

    The rest vote for change, ie Trump.

    Trump won’t get more than 74% of the electorate, ie 110 million but some number less than that which represents those members of the electorate who want change AND are prepared to vote for him.

    Those who sat it out get the change they wanted without having to lift a finger to vote.

    If within an electorate more than 2/3 want change, it is pointless doing polls!!

    The incumbent is toast and the challenger will get over 50%.


  39. Pachamama
    November 5, 2024 at 2:12 pm
    Rate This

    Maybe, just maybe, somethings are wrong with all of these mainstream polls. For they often differ to the best predictor – exit polls.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    If the exit polls do not indicate that this is a change election three explanations suggest themselves.

    a. The exit polls are wrong

    b. 74% of the electorate do not want change

    c. A monkey monkeyed with the votes.


  40. Looking good.


  41. Johnny

    Anybody who knows anything about statistical methods and poling knows that exit polls are highly predictive.

    For the sample, though possibly unrepresentative, represents a pool of people who actually voted. This adds more certainty than sampling possible voters who may never turn up on election day like 50 percent of possible voters do.

    On the other hand, early voters and mail-ins are not so captured.

    Certainly, these methods are never perfect, and can never be. At, best they are a critical mix of science and art. They are never perfect. However, they are way and beyond any other approach and represent the most robust methods we have.


  42. @Dee Word

    You were told that a Trump win was in play. America is not ready for a Black woman as President. Now sit back and enjoy the show.


  43. Did Ms. Harris concede?


  44. Did Trump concede I 2020?


  45. Got the national popular vote as well, as predicted.

    A bit lower than I reckoned but he still blew it away.

    How long do you think he will be sentenced for on the 17th, right?’


  46. Who said these words?

    “I believe that America will get it right?”

    WRONG!

    Apparently, America is very much wanting to go back, back in time…..probably to the 1950s!

    White supremacists Steve Bannon and Steven Miller and apartheid boy Elon Musk is what black Americans have to look forward to from January 20th.

    And Bobby the Brain-wormed looking out women’s health sans vaccines. Trump the Predator as their protector.

    Looney Tunes II – The Handmaid’s Tale coming to a state near you!

    I said from the beginning – Joe Biden should never have run again, Kamala Harris should have stepped aside for a white man, but EGO!

    Too many strikes against her before she even started! How was she to overcome inflation, immigration and genocide?

    Democrats really don’t know their own people. They don’t know how ignorant they are. They don’t know how deeply racist they are. They don’t know how sexist they are.

    Damn fools run around talking about, “This is not who we are!”

    The result? Turkeys voting for Thanksgiving.

    Because that is exactly who Americans are!

    I could see that from here in my armchair just watching Youtube.

    I gone to watch some more of the show.


  47. Donna
    November 6, 2024 at 6:16 am
    Rate This

    I said from the beginning – Joe Biden should never have run again, Kamala Harris should have stepped aside for a white man, but EGO!

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Trump was always going to win in 2024 after the 2020 elections.

    72% sometimes 74% of Americans figured out it was on the wrong track from day 1.

    No way Harris was going to win.

    Would be interesting to see how many Americans figured the 2020 election was stolen, my guess it was the same number.

    Trump won this with what appears to be fewer votes than he got in 2020.

    Almost 30 million fewer people voted this time when compared with 2020, the difference between the early vote in 2020 and 2024.

    Biden needed those 30 million votes to be inserted in order to get to 81 million.

    Americans, Republicans and Democrats, bided their time and democratically replaced the Harris Biden regime peacefully and democratically through the polls.

    America won last night.

    It is a shining light in this dark world.

    Trump became a part of a multi-ethnic coalition and led them in taking back their country.

    Well done everyone, and especially Trump.


  48. The Democrats released the Kraken when they messed with the elections in 2020.

    It was always going to a matter of time before it struck.

    God don’t like ugly.

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