Peter Wickham, Head of CADRES
The recent CADRES Poll has added fervour to the political climate in Barbados with a general election constitutionally due by April 2013 on the horizon. The poll was anonymously funded and exclusivity given to the Nation newspaper. Regrettably the information was published by the Nation in the most non-user friendly manner which made the analysis and conclusion of CADRES a challenge to follow for some.
BU is pleased to make available the CADRES Poll in its original format. Thanks to BU family member (BAFBFP) for the assist.
The following excerpt from the Political Poll Report (p.4) has not been ignored in the debate so far. There is a legitimate few that some of the ridings can be won based on the individual attributes of the candidate and the poll suggest the DLP has an edge if this is the case.
I will take only the “Major” issue of the “cost of living.”
Quote: ” It is striking that the cost of living continues to be the major issue of concern for most Barbadians and indeed is now more of a concern for us than was the case in 2010. In this instance 10% more Barbadians are now most concerned about the cost of living.”
Unquote: ” The poll does not show that 10% more Barbadians are now more concerned about the cost of living. It shows that 10% more “respondents” to the poll now are more concerned . . . . . . a completely different matter.
@enuff
Agree one should be able to extrapolate based on the sample, that is the idea.
What needs explanation is how PEP figures in the numbers. Would have believed any register by them in the sample would have been statistically insignificant.
Yah see David I could be of some uses now … ? So when I write my piece on “The Composition of the Boards of Government Sponsored Lending Agencies and How Such Has Seriously Contributed to the Marginalization of Productive Enterprises in Bim” you must give mah a lil’ spot den… 🙂
@BAFBFP
We have been through this several times. You try hard to shield that you have a good brain by spouting BS sometimes but like Dennis we know better…lol. Try the *’Send Confidential Message’* at top of page when making a submission if there is not attachment to avoid the battle with the spammer.
Better policies? I wonder what people would say after Estwick’s comments and the desk thumping this week to the VAT haul and its extension?
@ Yardbroom
Isn’t the poll suppose to be representative of the entire population?
“The poll was anonymously funded and exclusivity given to the Nation newspaper”
think people, who would fund a poll and exclusively give it to the Nation Newspaper? what would that PERSON gain by doing that? is it that had to see who is the PERSON who funded the poll?
David you wan’ me find out who fund this poll? And who is this fella call Dennis Johnson. He is same fella from the Miami Vice TV show …?
The comments on the poll has dried up like a swamp needing water in part because of the recent and much talked about vat and the perception and the blp notion of having a free pass and a winning ticket next election was shortlived and dealt a 1.3billion blow
Any truth to the rumour that PM Stuart is about the address the Nation with a bombshell on the choice of Deputy PM? Will it be Kellman, Sealy, Estwick or Sinckler?
@BAFBFP
De poll didn’t get produce for the fruit and vegetable man from Cheapside? Dat man been trying for years to mek a Prime Minister for himself.
I’ll Have Another!!
Lemme tell you see .. you ain’ wan’ nah more, you had enuff…! As far as I can see Wickham and the Dems ain’ friends nah more. So you can safely assume that Sinkler and Wickham ain’ speaking nid’r.
The poll was paid for and conducted by Wicham it was funded by Hallam Nicholls for the BLP after all he stopped counting when his corrupt earnings reached $ 25. Mil the same Nicholls who paid off the debt incurred for the campaign. In 2008 the debt to Red Advertising was absorbed to a large extent by the Red Indian Jevan but the BLP was bailed out by The Bag Man to the tune of nearly $ 1.3 mil dollars in advertising debt owed to the same Nation and VoB
so why would Hallam Nicholls give the poll exclusively to the Nation? one would think given the results he would share it with all the media but the person who funded it did not, he gave it to the Nation.
and the poll was not done by or for the BLP.
nice try but WRONG. try again. is it really this hard to see who is behind this poll and why?
@David (not Bu)
First it was said to be Gibbs now Nicolls. The bottomline we don’t know.
My friend in an island of this size it is not hard to obtain any information required and the govt does not need to tap people’s telephone calls as Mottley, Arthur and Marshall did in the past to eavesdrop on private citizens to get this information you simply have to have the balls and bite to ask Mottley and she will share it with you.
Awright den … Who really pay fah the poll den …? Harold Hoyte …? 🙂
Leron Gibbs got two surrogates, Mascoll and Sinckler. Please the odds but what he aint realise is that Sinckler will fail the same way Mascoll fail because no poll can’t make a man Prime Minister if that man just aint got what it takes.
@DAvid
But candidates is not the DLP’s strength. And their policies are not highly favoured when taken in the overall context of public satisfaction. Go figure.
@observing
As repeatedly stated the findings of the poll which sees PEP figuring is a concern. Can it be explained 101?
Immediate thought is dissatisfaction with politics on a whole. Barbadians are looking for something “different”
The DLP promised it but have come up short. I suspect turnout will be low to the DLP’s detriment. A look back at 94 shows how the NDP literally cost the DLP many seats. though PEP doesn’t realistically facot, it shows people are prepared to put their votes “anywhere elese”
@Pay thy debts,
That being said, to be fair and balanced, now tell us if you are a real man or woman, who paid for the DLP campaign, how much and if the campaign cheques were all written from FAMILIES FIRST account.
Show the BU family that you are not just a political yardfowl come on to this blog to Discharge Hideous Lies. And by the way, do not curse me for asking you not to be so one sided!
Observing
Agree with your last comment and if we go by what the DLP is saying and not saying there is more same old promised. Perhaps it is reflected in the low % score for Arthur.
Who the hell is “Leron Gibbs”? What is his exploitative activity … BTW, any photos of Hallam Nichols? I would very much like to know what these two individuals look like.
BAFBFP | June 1, 2012 at 4:13 AM |
Awright den … Who really pay fah the poll den …? Harold Hoyte …?
BAFBFP you ain’t as dumb as you come across. LOL joking but yes Harold Hoyte. think about it and you will see how much cent it makes.
Analysis is a funny thing, and should be done professionally. How can you evaluate the view of Thompson concerning his dealings with Clico with a question, has this changed your view of Thompson. Did you ascertain what the person’s view was first, if it was already negative, then how would they record a view changed. Take it from me, the people sold that nauseating story of the wonder boy concocted in a p.r. laboratory, are disillusioned and disgusted. The Dems that wanted to hold on to that mirage and got gut kicked by the revelation, say they not voting and done with politics. Only the diehard Dems with a higher level than usual of delusional coacine levels in their blood stream could even think well of him. Bajans not idiots.
@BA
you real connected, how u get them results. Tell mah who fund the poll yah year.
@David
I always recognize that BAF is an intelligent blogger, sometimes he writes his “poop” to throw you off. Well I know that the Nation was not the onley person/entity that had a copy of the said poll, but distance prevented me from trying to ascertain who funded the poll. Whoever it is, has a lot at stake and it should soon be known.
I will not comment on the said poll until i can have time to study them. Yes you are write you can extroplate from the sample size and point out the margin of error of the poll.
Thank BAF. David I would like to see some intelligent discussion on the polls and people must remember that polls are a smack in time and the perction of people will and can change within the nex 6-8 months.
I gun call Harold and ask a question … He may not answer though, but not answering, even not picking up the phone or responding to a voicemail msg will be interpreted as proof positive …! Ha ha ha
So despite Peter Wickham’s success in polling, it now matters who funded the poll? If a known Dem sponsored, would the Dems accept the results?
Who the hell cares now, it looks like the Dems are going to lose and they have become VERY DESPERATE!
@Prodigal Son
You are correct in the context that we have had polls by Cadres and the disastrous Box ill polls over the years. Cadres has by its performance gotten it right since the 90s. The issue for some though, and it is a matter of record – some believe political polls are opinion shapers. Therefore in that context who are the shadows behind the polls may loom large.
“To be useful, for campaign purposes, public opinion polls must be so designed that their findings can be related to voting statistics and electoral behaviour. Since most polls which appear in the press are planned with journalistic interest in mind, it is often a matter of accident if they can help in the campaign planning.
Party organizations can not safely ignore such polls, for too many people read them and draw inferences from them. Consequently, the first responsibility of a public opinion analyst in a political campaign is to be prepared to criticize published national polls. This is particularly true of the most common type of poll in campaign year the poll of campaign popularity.”
– – – –
(1) Who has paid for the Poll matters only in that its findings must have served their purpose, if they did not the Poll would not have been published.
(2) The Poll has to some degree served its intended purpose in that some believe the DLP will lose. . . . the intention.
(3) Any criticism of the Poll has been met with are you not experiencing what I am experiencing “the band wagon effect.”
(4) Many of us have just accepted them on the basis that last year or the year before this or that Poll was correct, the complexity of what is being served up has escaped some of us.
With acknowledgement to: Lewis Anthony Dexter:
Public Opinion and Election Analyst. Democratic National Committee, Washington.
Now reading the poll. Of major interest.
Figure 2. Less uncertains are likely to go the way of their families. Does this mean the barrow DLP older vote will no longer sway the younger ones in the house hold?
Figure 3: DLP has no strengths 20% or above, but 2 weaknesses. BLP has 2 strengths above 20% (the DLP’s weaknesses, leadership and achievement) and only one weakness (candidates) above.
Figure 4: for all the “society not economy” the DLP only manages a 1% lead over the BLP
Table 3: the biggest leader loser with uncertain voters is OSA. Although FS still holds only 9%
Figure 6: FS competence, political savvy, decision making and age (generation gap) are his achilles heel. Not sure if any of these can be “adjusted” at this stage.
All is not lost for the DLP but FS’ profile as well as an attempt to directly tackle the major issues (cost of living etc.) are the only real hopes.
Just observing.
so here is the question Observing (and polling), can and will FS change his ways or can the DLP remove FS without causing a break down within the party?
BU believes one of the reasons the late David Thompson remained Prime Minister until his death was to hold the party together. In hindsight maybe it was an error that Stuart or who may have emerged had the timing been different should have had to operate in the shadow of Thompson.
@david (not bu)
No and no.
@david
FS had enough time to put his stamp. Just before the death, immediately after, and many times since then. How he has come to be known is his fault. The party, having placed him there, are to blame too. Either for not shoring up his known weaknesses and rallying together, or for not doing what they felt they need to (eager 11). Had they acted (with a good after mutiny strategy) the people may have been upset, but would have understood. Problem is, for all FS weaknesses, there were (are) none who look that much better in the position…or any position for that matter.
Observing
Do you think Stuart commanded the confidence of Thompson through the sick period because he was the compromised candidate? In other words he did not feel Chris was ready and the others worthy? Wasn’t this played out when Stuart was supported after the parliamentary group met? The recent outburst by Estwick is instructive because despite many frustrations when Thompson was leader he never dared to go public.
but as the story is told, Thompson ask the member to support Chris for PM. they did not because they saw FS as weak and one of them could replace him.
David
I understand the reason DT remained P.M until death is to the benefit of his family; they would get a bigger pension, because he died as P.M and not former P.M.
However we look at it in hindsight the parliamentary group showed a weakness to right the leadership issue. The E11 subsequently showed that the stewardship of Stuart was never accepted.
@ David
In the good time honored tradition, if Chris Sinckler wants to be the Prime Minister, the first among equals, he should not nor will he be given it. He will have to inspire the others in Parliamentary Group to make him Prime Minister.
Chris Sinckler’s purported national appeal as a leader is a myth.
@ David
It is widely accepted by most people familiar with the DLP administration that the is very, very limited interest/support in the parliamentary Group to make Chris Sinckler Prime Minister.
I think those behind Chris Sinckler’s push for Prime Minister have made one major error, they have failed to get the measure of Fruendel Stuart and continue to think that his comment of ‘heads will roll” was and is a bluff and he is out of the woods.
How are we to interpret the poll which makes Chris the most popular?
@ David
Should the Parliamentary Group be convinced of Mr. Sinckler’s leadership qualities by a CADRES poll or by what they witness in Parliament and for some, in Cabinet every week?
@ I’ll Have Another!!
Does the Parliamentary Group of the DLP want to win elections?
David
Even within his party, the seniors still only sees him as a Garrison School boy. There is a faternity bigger than the BLP or DLP, that will not accept Sinckler as P.M, he would have had to do sixth form at either Harrison College, or Cawmere. This situation is evolving, that’s why Stuart got in but is has not , and will not for a long time, reach the level of any of the newer secondary school.
@The Scout
Well the DLP will have to find a way to reconcile the national appeal of its leader and the other factors you raised.
@observing
Ordinarily yes but there is a dynamic playing out in the DLP which gives the candidate with the national appeal the edge because of the dearth.
The problem with the parliamentary group was/is that too many of them believe they should be the leader. (RJ, DK, DE, ML, CS, DI) hence broad consensus on one leader is impossible. FS was the safe choice all things considered.
Even though FS has been less than stellar, the question is not only who “can” lead but who can command broad enough internal and national support. DT and his personality never allowed for that person to come to the fore. Barrow-Sandi all over again.
@david
Poll “popularity” does not necessarily equate to political acceptance, just political opportunity at a specific point in time.
Following scout, there’s only one other “consensus.”. He’ll have to prove his viability by winning his seat convincingly…then, taking the spotlight from CS, then consolidating national appeal. A tall order for a man who only got 5% and 12% for PM and Deputy respectively.
@david
He gets the edge “internally” only….but he’s still 10 points behind with “all bajans” and 11 behind with uncertains. Plus, factor in the damage control and change management needed and any popularity now will be chipped away at with little to no time to repair.
The DLP is really between a rock and a hard place. The BLP isn’t much better but at least their number 2 has broad national appeal already.
@observing
But compared to others internally …
@ David
The DLP does desperately want to win the pending elections, that’s why not even Jesus could convince the Parliamentary Group to put Chris Sinckler as Prime Minister. This not only becuase of the blood letting required to remove Stuart but also because most of them are not convinced they have any better chance with Chris Sinckler than with PM Stuart.
Any attempt to remove PM Stuart at this late hour will spell certain and guaranteed doom ofr the DLP and most of the elected MP’s>
@I’ll Have Another!!
Then if such is the case the seniors in the party must begin to bugle the messages of the party in unison. To date only Kellman has been fighting the fight.
My question in all of this is where are the “elders”. Every institution has elders who factor in “behind the scenes”. It seems as if this group is just muddling through “on their own”. Where’re the DLP philosophers, the warriors of old, the voices to quell discontent and point a direction from among the pack…this not only speaks to leadership but to institutional strength, branding and continuity.
@ David
I suspect the DLP election machinery is well oiled and ready and there is a certain amount of faking the BLP in believing they are not ready while the PM hints at elections and keep the opposition in a state of perpetual suspense.
Have you all factored in the possibility that FS might have been made aware that an S&P downward regrading is imminent? Would that be enough to make him call elections much earlier than he had intended? Who would want to be in charge when our credit rating was devalued to junk bond status and with elections just round the corner?
Just a guess based on the Gov. Central Bank’s comments yesterday and today’s interview with the S&P lady. A foreknowledge of an imminent downgrading might be the only thing that could budge FS from having an early 2013 election date.
Wickham dont get it right all the time, remember what happen in St. Lucia? Whilst I am no statistical whizz, one must look at the sample size and location of the peoples being polled.
Wickham has gotten it right for Barbados every time. The St. Lucia situation was addresses by Wickham elsewhere as well as BU. You don’t accept the explanation?
@ David
The wisdom of Fruendel Stuart to leave Chris Sinckler as Minister of Finance is now becoming apparent. Chris Sinckler MP will be remembered as the Mininster of Finance who presided over:-
1. Increase in VAT to 17.5%
2. Removal of Tax-free Allownaces
3. Implementation of austerity generally
4. The downgrading of Barbados credit rating to JUNK.
I suspect that the Minister of Finance will a politically damaged article for a very long time in Barbados.
If memory serves me correct the explanation was a last minute surge towards the Compton led administration. They did a lot of ground work days leading up or the election.
Maybe neither the DLP nor the BLP wants to win the next general elections. Remember, every few months, we’re hearing about a settlement in the Al Barrack issue ( one came a few daysa ago from RJ), however, the interest keeps going up, and the fact that the BARBADOS GOVERNMENT, not the DLP or the BLP is flouting the HIGHEST COURTS in the land by refusing to pay, does no look good internationally. With the posibility that the country might be down graded, again is bad news for any NEW or OLD governmen.Added to that is the situation of rising cost of living within the country, with these and many other serious matters to deal with, it has to be a fool or a patriotic bajan who would want to be the leader of the Government of Barbados at this stage.Either that party comes out spelling like a rose, or a “stinnky missy”.
We should put things in context and perspective:
between 1999 and 2007, in the so-called “great years” of the last administration S & P downgraded Barbados no less than three times, moving the country from a high of AA to A- 1999 and all the way down to BBB+ by 2005 with a negative outlook
The same people who now want to crucify the DLP on economic policy in a global recession and when the world economy was growing, the BLP failed to transform or restructure the Barbados Economy.
A vote for the BLP is a waste of time.
Nation News…what will it be ?…..ostrich-mania or get wid D program-nomics