A review of the homicide data from 2019 onward makes it hard to ignore the timing: the Barbados Labour Party took office in 2018, and homicides have climbed ever since. Correlation is NOT causation but the relationship is warrants scrutiny.
Source: Barbados Crime Blog
Discuss for 10 marks.
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Enshittification!
A term coined by the writer Doctorow to describe the extent of degradation of two-sided online platforms over time.
Our own Bushman, reluctant to properly roll his r’s, as like any good Spanish speaker, has given us brassbowl, and shiiiite, another word near his proximate religious adversaries, the Shiites, even with their propensities to die for justice.
But that Bushie’s shiite could have been mainstreamed and given pride of place within the official lexicon again conjures languages as living organisms.
Maybe Doctorow gives guidance thusly.
@ Pacha
Truth, justice, righteousness, lawfulness, …and hence ‘peace and security’ are TOP-DOWN phenomena.
Correlation is therefore causation in this case…and the relationship is direct.
When the head goes awry, the body is literally constrained.
What a state!
It used to be said.
“a man is known by the company he keeps”
@ David
The homicide issue is one concern and as its more intense than most crimes it has caught our intention.
I however would go further and say there is a complete breakdown in the adherance and enforcement of law in this island fullstop.
Look at the volume of uninsured vehicles on our roads which nothing is being done about. The most laugable approach being we need to build flyovers now, as the 40% of uninsured vehicles is adding to our traffic woes. Have you ever witnessed a more laughable approach to law enforcement than this? How pathetically poor are we at enforcement that we have surrendered to this? You want to reduce traffic congestion, well get the 40% of uninsured vehicles off the blasted road as a starting point do that!
On top of this we hear how the country and police need funding. Well you sitting on a dam gold mine in terms of fines and Impound fees for these same uninsured vehicles. Stop them, tow them, impound them and fine the tail off these criminals do that. Of course this will not happen as its politically incorrect to do this.
We are a country in full on enforcement freeze by our authorities. Our leaders HAVE to take the blame for it too, as they with a 30 to O majority can change laws if the desire was there. You want to deal with the gun issues start here. First offence 5 years mandatory prison term. Second offence 10 years and 3rd offence 25 years at dodds. These are for possession only. Used to kill someone life no parole. Will this happen? Of course not cause all we good at is running we mout!
Is there a correlation between homicides and DLP?
yeah.. no.. shit.. maybe..
I wouldn’t have much faith in those making these correlations becoming police detectives or scientists
I suspect prejudice and bias is in their bones and in their blood
Yes @John A, things seem to be moseying along a path of inevitable decline. How can we separate from global trending? The influence from external seems to be overwhelming.
@David
David we have an opportunity to bring REAL change to this situation having just had elections, with the BLP having won with another 30 to 0. I say that to show the reason for our enforcement paralysis can not be as a result of a fear of losing power. So with that in mind, what other reasons could there be for this poor record of enforcement and recognition of our current situation? Are we at the stage where there is a generation of underground untouchables now on the rock? I said on this blog months ago, that when crime becomes a sizable percentage of an economy, its all down hill from there. If you want examples of this look at Columbia and Mexico as prime examples. Is that the direction we are heading in? I had an interesting conversation this weekend with an insurance executive about the high amount of uninsured vehicles and what he said made me think. He feels the reason so many are not insured, especially many of the big rides, is because some of these owners can not show a legitimate source of earnings on their proposal forms. Is that possibly why we are where we are today with that issue, or have Bajan vehicle owners reached the stage where they just don’t care or fear the law anymore? Either way we have a major problem with that issue.
Rules were made to be broken.
Why is car insurance mandatory?
Why should any public body have to report?
Why is possessing a plant illegal?
Why should public transport vehicles stop only at predetermined places?
Why voluntarily pay taxes?
Effin you don’t like a rule, Brek it.
@John A: “I say that to show the reason for our enforcement paralysis can not be as a result of a fear of losing power. So with that in mind, what other reasons could there be for this poor record of enforcement and recognition of our current situation?
A very interesting question.
One thing that has always annoyed me is how many cars have non-functioning brake lights. I estimate that 10% of all vehicles in Barbados have at least one brake light not working, and about 1% have both brake lights not working.
A simple suggestion: Perhaps when cars are refueling, the attendant could help the car owner ensure their lights are working properly.
Please note that this is also the point when License Plates are recorded. For those not paying with cash.
We could go further, and note all the motorbikes traveling dangerously at high speeds without license plates. This /could/ be “worked” by tracking the smart phones these riders are likely carrying.
But there is a bit of stigma about “being observed.”
Well, a political decision was made last night in Bridgetown to step back from the precipice of a nuclear holocaust.
That this here centre of the world instructed a tan-man that he was an idiot, could not win.
This catastrophic defeat coming from Bridgetown represents a signal event in the history of mankind- the end of White hegemony and a clear victory for the BRICS formation.
The end of the old order and the birth of the new, at least for a while. For White people shall not but go down fighting. For the big, mushroom-headed deckemon still seeks flight, craves relevance!
I am surprise at the “Title” of this piece.
I love to poke fun of Mia and her goons, but this is a poor attempt at comedy.
Though it has no comedic value, that is the only thing that I can place it in.
What’s next?
Correlation of BLP politics and the increasing price of English potatoes
Correlation of BLP politics and the 1937 riots
In all honesty, I cannot find a worse heading
Mia entertains.
‘OPERATION EPIC FREEDOM’ IS NOW APTLY TERMED – ‘OPERATION EPIC FAILURE’ AS THE ORANGE GRAND WIZARD KLANSMAN IN THE WHITE HOUSE CAPITULATES TO IRANIAN SOVEREIGN DEMANDS AFTER GETTING HIS ARSE* KICKED BOTH WAYS & SIDEWAYS INTO YESTERDAY
#WhatAWorld
#WhatMephistophelianSophistry
#HUMANS*
#SMDHID
“And you wonder why our kids are killing one another”???
@Hants: “no correlation.
There is a very important concept in statistics. Correlation does not mean causality.
But… Given enough data points, trends can be deduced.
@Chris
Have you seen any trends?
Oh shiiite now!
Too good to be true. That ceasefire!
Badly penned if at all, varied understandings by parties, Israelis still bombarding Lebanon. What else could have been expected.
Broad hostilities likely to resume again by Thursday, as promised by Iran.
Our computer models are refusing to project gasoline at less than 10 dollars per gallon, famine in a lot of places.
OIL HIT A US$144 PER BARREL TODAY (WEDNESDAY APRIL 8, 2026) – WHAT WILL BE THE PRICE COME FRIDAY 10TH?
What will be the price come “END OF APRIL” into “MAY”???
Can anyone of any intellectual or intestinal “METAL” be able to vouchsafe which “ECONOMY” will be able to absorb such a “SHOCK” outside of RUSSIA & a FEW OTHERS???
So pray tell, “WHAT HAPPENS TO YOUR CRIME STATS”???
What will “THE MOTTLEY-CREW GOV” be dealing with in a few months when “STAGFLATION” & a “PROFOUND RECESSION” sets in & “HOMICIDES & MURDERS” rock the limestone foundations of a 166 sq miles plot of land in the outer regions of dystopia???
This is #COVID_PLANDEMIC on absolute “STEROIDS” times (x) 100!!!
HOW MUCH DENIAL IS 2-MUCH DENIAL* FOLKS???
#2ManyQuestions???
#IMDUN*
@TB
You are very incorrect regarding the price of oil.
@BU.David: “Have you seen any trends?
Yes. It is far easier to blindly follow than thinking for oneself.
@ David
The Dated Brent crude oil price reached a record high of $144.42 per barrel on Tuesday, April 7, 2026. This figure, reported by S&P Global Energy Platts, represented the highest level since the measure began in 1987, driven by fears of supply scarcity during the US-Iran conflict – however, prices plummeted the following day, April 8, dropping roughly 15% to below $100 per barrel after a two-week ceasefire was announced….
@TB
We may be confusing future price with immediate price.
YOU DO NOT HAVE TO STUDY CRIMINOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE UNDERLYING FACTOTRS OF FISCAL IMPLOSION PLAYS INTO THE LIVES OF ALL THOSE AFFECTED & WE ARE NOT SPEAKING OF THOSE AT THE “BOTTOM-OF-THE-BARREL TIER” SOCIOLOGISTS CALL #Subcultures – THIS IS ACROSS THE BOARD FRACTURING OF SOCIETY
I am sorry “FOLKS” but I am NOT* on that #PlagueIsland called “DENIAL” – an outpost where “MOST” bury their heads in the sand, while whimpering & wailing about all kinds of “USELESS” issues!!!
What is pivotal today (IN THE LIGHT OF WHAT IS COMING) – is how do we “IMPLEMENT GUARD-RAILS” that will “OFFSET” the absolute abysmally worst happening & over-taking our societies in ways that would be irreparable!!!
Here’s my 5 CENTS WORTH
A “TECTONIC” economic collapse would not only plunge the world into indiscriminate chaos, but also, it would produce patterned, predictable increases in specific types of crime, primarily property crime and organised criminal activity, while the trajectory of violent crime would depend heavily on how governments respond…
For a “LIL” island, you lot already have a serious problem on your hands and the “MOTTLEY-CREW-GOV* is completely “IMPOTENT” & in some ways caught in a deflationary spiral to posit any real, meaningful solutions to this growing crisis!!!
The single most important variable in any “NATION” is institutional resilience…
Countries with “STRONG SOCIAL SAFETY NETS”, effective “POLICING”, functioning “COURTS”, and “PUBLIC CONFIDENCE” in the “RULE OF LAW” will weather the storm far better than those without…
WHAT SAY YE???
As one researcher put it, reflecting on “THE GREAT DEPRESSION”, opined – “We could not completely prevent crime. But once upon a time, when epidemics broke out, all we could do was put on masks and pray. Now we have “VACCINES”, and they work.”
THAT’S OPEN FOR DEBATE TODAY*
However, the “VACCINES” in this case are “ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET POLICIES”, “CASH TRANSFER INCENTIVES”, “PUBLIC SAFETY INFRASTRUCTURE”, and above all this – “INSTITUTIONAL INTEGRITY”!!!
The question is whether governments, including Barbados’s, will administer them in time…
THIS IS THE REAL VISIONARY CHALLENGE AND ALLOW ME TO ELABORATE TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
Let us begin
This isn’t just theoretical cosmology or rocket science for you.
Barbados is already grappling with the relationship between crime and economic stability for all of its citizens.
What Bajan officials like Senator Kevin Boyce were saying, as early as June 2025, he warned that Barbados’s recent economic progress could be undermined by a surge in violent crime unless urgent action is taken.
He explicitly linked crime to economic performance, citing the 2023 IMF Regional Economic Outlook which found that increases in homicide rates correlate with slower economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean.
His warning was stark: “If the crime is not brought under control, it has an impact on the same economy that we are trying to build.”
His trajectory hinged on the “Investment and Tourism Angle” and also, how Barbados can become a more egalitarian society.
Senator Andrew Mallalieu (CEO of Terra Caribbean) has been even more direct about the economic consequences where he opined that foreign direct investment is already being affected, as investors now ask about crime first, not economic policy.
As a multi-millionaire, he is concerned (I’m sure) about his own wealth and that of others like him!
Tourism is being harmed, for he has observed it firsthand.
Brain drain is also accelerating, as more young people are questioning whether Barbados is their future.
There is a loss of confidence in the rule of law and this is a growing concern!
Mallalieu’s assessment is worth quoting directly, as he vociferously opined that – “When you look at all of these different things, we’re going to lose our young people who don’t see this as a future, we’re going to lose foreign direct investment, you’re not going to have tourism. People are not going to feel safe in their homes, your prisons are going to balloon and all kinds of other people are going to take over this country.”
These words import the notion of Barbados becoming a ‘Banana Republic’ that will not be fit for purpose!
Is this the fait accompli Barbados is heading towards given that the “MOTTLEY-CREW-GOV* was given a mandate on [3] separate occasions (ONLY POSSIBLE IN COMMUNIST, AUTHORITARIAN FASCIST COUNTRIES)?
The Caribbean context is no better either, as research on business disruptions in Athens during ‘Greece’s Debt Crisis’ found that economic downturns exacerbate location-based business disruptions, including assaults on employees and customers, business burglaries, reputational damage, supply chain problems, and decreased turnover.
The same mechanisms would likely operate in Barbados, and across the Caribbean, particularly in areas dependent on tourism and foreign investment and across more weaker Caribbean municipalities – where tourism is a monetary buffer against the prevailing winds that are already blowing.
So what are the mitigating factors and what will make a difference?
Research has shown that not all economic collapses produce the same crime outcomes, given that identification of several protective factors!
(1) Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs)
Countries that invest in training programmes, job creation incentives, and employment subsidies during downturns see weaker links between unemployment and crime.
These programmes improve skills and productivity, and provide optimism about the future – while offering social interaction and structure, which will reduce the incentive for criminal behaviour!
(2) Passive Labour Market Policies (PLMPs)
Unemployment benefits and cash transfers reduce crime by lowering income uncertainty among vulnerable populations. Their effectiveness increases in the presence of a large shadow economy.
(3) Public Safety Infrastructure
As a follower of the former Greek Finance Minister (Yanis Varoufakis), research from the ‘Athens Crisis’ found that enhanced public safety measures, increased police presence, law enforcement, and improved public infrastructure, were associated with a reduction in business disruptions.
(4) Strong Institutions and the Rule of Law
The UNODC emphasises that crisis responses must prioritise respect for human rights, protection of victims, and inclusive approaches. Weak institutions are precisely what organised crime exploits.
I cannot stress enough without putting on my academic straw hat how Barbados faces unique vulnerabilities, especially given its tourism dependency model, which means crime spikes directly threaten the primary economic engine.
In a small population, it means brain drain has outsized effects.
Massive import dependence means supply chain disruptions could fuel black markets.
However, Barbados also has strengths, given its strong foreign reserves (over US$3 Billion) which provides fiscal space for counter-measures.
There’s also IMF backing offers of institutional support, (which would tie the country’s arms and legs for another protracted period), but when all else fails – you do what you gotta’ do!
The “MOTTLEY-CREW-GOV*” is already aware of the “CRIME ECONOMY” link and has been warned by senators, and others across the country that the situation is out of hand!
Finally, the key mediating factor appears to be inequality and the presence or absence of redistributive policies – for “WEALTH” is still concentrated in the hands of the “ALBINO-CENTRIC_RULING_CLASS” and far too many Bajans are eking out a paltry existence (UNDER THE COVER OF WHAT IS THE MIRAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOCIETY)!
Cross-national research by Archer & Gartner (2025), published in International Annals of Criminology, cited here – ( https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-annals-of-criminology/article/abs/violence-and-the-economy-a-modest-hypothesis-on-inequality-unemployment-and-crime/8FA38CFBFE7A21C3CD56BF8C2253DB0D ) -found that the relationship between violence and the economy is not invariant, it depends on qualitative features of a nation’s economic system. Nations with more “REDISTRIBUTIVE” economic systems and policies designed to mitigate poverty and unemployment are less likely to experience increases in violence when unemployment rises.
This is absolutely crucial for the GOV* of Barbados to acknowledge!
The people need more than “MERE CRUMBS” that falls from Massa’s table!
It suggests that a country’s institutional response to economic collapse matters as much as the collapse itself.
On that perspicacious note
#IMDUN*
#Time4TheGarden
Mo money.
I get the point of the post but it grossly misrepresents the complexities of interpreting data, especially data linked to social variables.
Mathematically speaking correlation requires two quantifiable variables, other than the number of homicides what is the other variable, time????? Association is a broader term and more appropriate here, as it allows for the use of categorical data but still the only data is homicide numbers.
I am not one to defend this administration but this is the type of reckless discussion only worthy of a rum shop. (I expect the tax guy to bring some data from his archives)
This reminds me of the Willoughby lady (who sits in her ivory tower studiying crime for the past 20 years) doing a study on the secondary school of men currently in prison. This woman receives a high salary and puts out “research” that is deeply biased and flawed with no actionable information. What is the government to do, shut down Ellerslie secondary.
This is the problem in Barbados @redguard, we hate to broach the tough conversations. The blogmaster has planted a seed that we need to discuss and gather the data we can. Much of the data is unavailable for general public consumption. The blogmaster is emboldened to ask if increasing criminal activity is correlated to political activity. A good example is in Jamaica where garrison culture is closely related to political activity.
David
Again, I get your point but if a discussion is based on a biased premise it will not lead to meaningful discussion and actionable information. If you start with bias you will end with more bias!
You cannot pose a question by including the answer. You are essentially asking persons to search for data to support your hypothesis but you have left no room for the possibility your hypothesis is not true (in statistics we call it the null hypothesis)
Jamaica is not a good example, socioecnomically Jamaica and Barbados are two competely different environments.
The better question would be “Is there any relationship between the rising murder rate and the dominance of the BLP”.
@redguard
The blogmaster cannot be accused of pigeonholing any discussion. For example, in your reply to BU’s empty hypothesis, you have shared your view . More importantly, the objective, is to provoke wider interest and thought about our current state.
Dear BU family et al, one of the reasons why I started the homicide database (the crime blog came after), was to create a space where the data could be collected, organized and analyzed publicly/freely. To my knowledge, nothing like this (i.e., the database) exists as yet (I speak under correction). Of-course in doing so, it means anyone can use the data and interpret and frame/analyze it as they choose.
Whenever I update the crime blog with monthly posts (e.g., the ones featuring the ‘murder map’, or posts which originate from queries I run on the database, e.g. most number of homicides in one day, et cetera) I share them with David which he shares on BU (thanks David), and I share them on my socials.
In this case, i.e., David’s correlation post, while the data referenced comes from my database (the chart specifically), this post isn’t mine. I think most of the regulars on BU know this, but the infrequent readers may not. My focus is always on collecting and presenting the data. I do not get involved on the policy, politics, et cetera, side of things.
Amit Uttamchandani
http://www.barbadoscrimeblog.com
data.barbadoscrimeblog.com
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.