Submitted by Yardbroom
The recent CADRES opinion poll has generated much debate and rightly so, because it has given ammunition to those – mainly BLP supporters but not singularly – who believe this DLP Government will be defeated at the next general election. It has also caused some anxiety even to committed DLP diehards. I will take a different view to the majority expressed on BU (Barbados Underground) and in the interest of “balance” seek to address some misconceptions.
“An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a Poll, is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.” It was once said: “Opinion polls are like soup you take a spoon full and you have a flavour of the whole”.
But BAJANS know you can dip a spoon in a bowl of souse and come up with only a liquid of peppers, cucumber and onions the “meat” can be at the bottom of the bowl.
Is there empirical data from which I can draw to substantiate the view I have taken.
“The story of opinion polls. In the 1997 [UK general election] election begins on 9 April 1992, the day John Major won the election and made fools of the polling industry. In 1992 the four final polls, published on election day, showed the Conservative and Labour parties level pegging, as the polls had been doing throughout the campaign. NOP and MORI put Labour slightly ahead, ICM declared a dead heat and Gallup put the Conservatives ahead by a mere half per cent, the average of the four was a Labour lead of 0.9%. Everything pointed to a hung parliament and a coalition government. In the event the Conservatives won with an overall majority of 21 seats, 7.6% ahead of Labour in the popular vote.”
Opinion Polls are not tablets of stone handed down from heaven, they should not be completely ignored but a measure of caution should be exercised in interpreting them. I am not saying completely ignore the Poll because it is of no relevance. I am making the point as forcefully as I can, there is no reason to abandon ship and man the life boats into the turbulent and icy waters of the deep, no iceberg has been struck.
To the DLP, Prime Minister Stuart should call a WAR council, delegate areas of attack and go on the offensive, all singing from the same hymn sheet. Focused targeting is required, when the opposition is under pressure then cracks appear.
As for the BLP sometime ago I wrote of Mia Mottley: “Your time will come” and those with undiscerning eyes may not have noticed that time might just be nearer than expected.
The Opinion Polls are only a chapter in this story, there is a long game to be played.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.