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Hartley Henry – DLP Political Strategist

Ok, Madame Letter Writer, you win! As a rule I do not comment on the political goings on in sister Caribbean states, but your Letter To The Editor over the past weekend has triggered an avalanche of requests for my take on political developments across the region.

First up, Trinidad and Tobago! I do not believe general elections are imminent in that country. Patrick Manning is easily one of the most politically cunning operatives in the region today. He successfully diverted public attention from a major money scandal involving several senior PNM operatives as well as “watered down” the impact of the coronation of Kamla Bassad-Parsar as Prime Minister-In-Waiting, by dropping the hint of imminent general elections. This is the classic Foolish Virgins political strategy; as clearly Manning is hoping that Kamla and her UNC would peak in the coming weeks, thus burning their popularity lamps dry and not having adequate appeal by the time the actual poll is held. I consider Kamla a political sprinter. Her moment of midas magic will last all of approximately 12 months. If Manning were to be so ‘politically drunk’ as to call an election anytime within the next 12 months, he would be clobbered by a Kamla-led UNC, aided and abetted by the Winston Dookeran led Congress of the People. If Manning holds out and permits Kamla’s shine to rub off, I fear the pockets of an incumbent Trinidad and Tobago leader are deep enough to enable him to worm his way back into the hearts and minds of voters. My advice to Kamla is ‘pace yourself’ and guard against peaking too soon. My advice to Manning is use the diversionary tactic of an early election to your advantage, but for heaven’s sake, and certainly that of the PNM, do not even dream of ringing that bell anytime soon.

Secondly, there is Guyana. At last Robert Corbin has signaled his intention to sit out the next general election as Presidential candidate for the PNC-Reform. This must be welcome news for all persons bent on seeing the back of the Bharrat Jagdeo led PPP-Civic.  I personally believe the move is a little late and that the tunnel vision tendencies of senior PNC operatives will influence their making a poor choice of Presidential candidate. I believe the PNC-Reform needs a new beginning. The party needs to focus on and promote policies, rather than personalities. There is no single individual who fits the bill, at this time, and I do not believe the leadership should focus all its energies on finding “the perfect candidate”. I also do not believe that the PNC has to reinvent itself by finding a leader of Indian descent. I get the feeling that the Guyanese electorate will rather vote for a credible, feasible set of economic, political and social reform programs than for a 2010 Renaissance Man. In other words, the PNC needs at this stage to come to the fore with a right mix of social and economic policies and let the true leader of the party emerge naturally. By the same token, the PPP-Civic also needs to find a successor to Jagdeo that can imbue fresh confidence and optimism in the party. Frankly, I am at a loss to understand why the party did not move to amend the constitution to permit Jagdeo to stand for another term. I believe he is now coming into his own as a leader of that party and country and his shoes may prove a bit too large for any member of his current Cabinet to fill.

Thirdly, there is St. Vincent and the Grenadines. I believe the holding of that referendum and its timing constituted a major lapse of political judgment. However, Ralph Gonsalves is still the best bet in town. Sir James Mitchell is not Sir John Compton. He does not have the hold on mainland St. Vincent as Sir John did across the length and breadth of St. Lucia. I cannot see him making a successful comeback and Arnhim Eustace is as uninspired and uninspiring now as he was over a decade ago when he stepped onto the political scene. Ralph Gonsalves is wisely slowing the pace and reducing the political temperature. In nine months the fallout from the calling of that referendum would have been contained and the focus of the majority of voters will be on the person they believe can best lead St. Vincent and the Grenadines downwind of the global economic recession. In that respect, I believe Ralph Gonsalves will be as relevant and formidable as ever.

And then, there is Antigua and Barbuda! I was surprised by the Court ruling. I felt it was necessary and needed, but I honestly did not think there was a Judge in these parts courageous enough to make such a ruling. The election was poorly administered. It was a disgrace to modern day Antigua. However, there is much more to the current political crisis in Antigua and Barbuda, than meets the eye. Three bye-elections will not solve Antigua’s problems. There is a crisis of confidence in the economic leadership of the country. Antiguans and Barbudans are not seeing light at the end of the economic tunnel. The Prime Minister and his Minister of Finance are speaking, but not saying anything. Their policies are incoherent and some may say nonexistent. The ruling by the court was hailed by many, because they saw it as an opportunity to change the economic direction of the country. One year after being returned to office, Baldwin Spencer and the UPP dare not return to the polls for a fresh mandate. They are not the flavor of the month in Antigua at this time. The ALP is waiting in the wings, but it has to date not clearly articulated an economic path forward. Residents of Antigua and Barbuda are yearning for a change, but not an unconditional change. They want a program of economic reform that they can believe in and buy into. To date the Labour Party has failed to articulate such in a manner that can be easily comprehended. Baldwin Spencer will explore and exploit all legal options at his disposal to stave off returning to the electorate in whole or in part. He is wise in so doing. With its current momentum, the ALP can bring the government down. What it is yet to demonstrate is that it has the formula for building the country up!

Hartley Henry is a Regional Political Strategist. He can be reached at hartleyhenry@gmail.com

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24 responses to “Tremendous Intrigue In Regional Politics”

  1. Avatar
    Anonymous

    Wow, I actually found this very interesting and engaging and wanted to read more. A welcome change from the usual fare HH.

  2. zion1971 Avatar
    zion1971

    Firstly if you think Patrick Manning going to sit and wait until the UNC and COP -however dysfunctional they are – form a unity party you are kidding yourself. Because truth be told Manning could never win an election if the UNC and the COP could put their bickering aside and unite as one party. I personally think Mr Manning will be going to the polls before year end. Now, nothwithstanding the plethora of scandals and corruption charges that are now levied at the PNM, however, they are more organised and united than the UNC.The UNC has too much “leaders” that are egotistical and power hungry ( Panday, Warner and Maragh) and to join forces with another break-away faction that also has a lot of over-ambitious personalities ….. that is asking too much from Mrs K. Bisseau. There is alos rumours of Panday forming another party……. . So with all the problems that the PNM is facing it is still a viable alternative. Patrick Manning quoting Rob Emmanuel a few weeks again said ” never let a crisis go to waste”.

    Mr Hartley for you to be suggesting that Guyanese legislators should have pulled a “bloomburg” on the people of Guyana is ludicrous and madness. Are you trying to say only Mr jahdeo in Guyana can provide leadership? We have seen countries that
    become dictatorial and a one party state when they go that route. Some will even argued that Guyana is in that state right now. Guyanese politics is heavly racialised. The opposition has no chance as long the party is seen as Afro- centric party. Mr Corbin has no credibility and he already has rid the party of credible alternative leaders. I see them in the political wilderness way into the future.

  3. The Scout Avatar
    The Scout

    It is time the nations in the caribbean look at a fixed term of office for any government and a specific length of time for any one person to be head of the country. Too many of our modern day leaders develop the idea that they are irreplacable after three sessions in government. I have heard this idea of fixed term in office being mooted around by this DLP government, I hope it come to reality by the end of their first term in office.

  4. David Avatar
    David

    Agree with Henry that Manning can’t be that stupid to call an election when his party is under the gun and Kamla is riding a wave. In the case of Antigua his slip is showing.

  5. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    Yet another so-called economic quarter ( January to March 2010) has passed, and there is NO sign whatsoever that this wretched wayward DLP Government has been providing the dynamic intellectual, political and organizational leadership necessary to help get the country out of this gigantic mess that primarily itself and the last former BLP Government would have put the country in.

    In fact, nothing significant at all is happening at this time, except that the so-called economy is further and further collapsing – with more and more workers being laid off, with more and more businesses, if NOT being closed down, being terribly downsized, with many more businesses reporting greatly reduced profits, and hardly any new major investments being made through out the country.

    We have said it before and we say it again that this country would have been in a far better position in 1992/3, at this time – 2 years into this depression – about 20 years ago, to stage a recovery in respect of the 1991-1993 crisis, than it is to stage a (successful)recovery at this time of this political economic crisis in 2009/10.

    What this implies is that there are aspects of this present crisis that are faring far worse than in the 1991/3 period of crisis, or that are being far more badly grossly mismanaged by this present DLP Government than then.

    For instance, the fiscal deficit of the government. The 2009 Central Bank Economic Report on the performance of the so-called Barbados economy for the year 2009 shows that in the midst of this crisis the fiscal deficit increased by a sizable 2% to 8% from 6% in 2008, esp. mainly through wild and reckless government expenditure increases.

    However, in the midst of the 1991/3 political economic crisis the government’s fiscal deficit of BDS $ 254 million in 1990/1, instead of going up further had to be brought down – and was brought down to BDS $ 54 million in 1991/2, through a series of decisive but draconian measures instituted by the then government with the help of the IMF( Statistics taken from the 2007 Statistical Digest of Central Bank of Barbados).

    That PARTICULAR phased reduction of the fiscal deficit was, yes, a mighty part of the 1991/3 structural adjustment and stabilization programs that the then DLP government had – along with the IMF and the World Bank/IADB – instituted. Indeed, these austerity programs – call them that – were themselves responsible for much of the great pain, suffering and misery that were visited upon the broad masses and middle classes in the country, but were also responsible for the significant restructuring and repositioning undertaken then in the government sector and by extension in the so-called Barbados economy, and which in the final analysis helped to somewhat successfully lay the foundation for much of the material financial growth that was later seen during the first BLP term of office.

    Hence, too, the management of the political economic crisis then was far better then than at this time – with the Social Partnership, the Congress of Trade Union and Staff Associations of Barbados (CTUSAB) being born at such a crucial time in the historical development of Barbados!!!

    But, at the moment when there is an absolute need for the implementation of national and subnational restructuring nor stabilization programs sufficient to help restructure and reorder the fiscal and operational affairs of the government and by extension the material productive and distributive affairs of the country, we in the PDC see none coming forth from this joke DLP Government.

    And, too, there are no such programs that see the absolute need for them to be developmental and people centered but at the same time too to be instrumental in helping to create and or develop excess material and financial capacity in the country, but at the same time as these changes to the institutional structures and processes of sectors are taking place, to be seeking to make sure that there is great use made by the government, the private and individual sectors within the country of this capacity in an expansionary way such as would ensure that the way is NOT ONLY paved for a strong recovery in BUT ALSO for the sustained long term growth and development in the material and financial affairs of this country. SO, NONE WHATSOEVER EITHER!! NONE!!

    But, to think of it, this wretched wayward DLP government has failed and will continue to fail in putting such programs in place sufficient to restructure and reorder the fiscal and operational affairs of the government and by extension the wider so-called economy. They do not have the political willl nor the intellectual capacity to do so on their own.

    To think about it, also, in the USA there has been a great amount of restructuring and stabilization – albeit with a great deal of incoherence uncertainty – in their economy. There has also been great amounts of economic financial information coming out of there via the internet, international news organizations, that suggests that the recession has ended for them, and that there is a recovery in their economy, albeit fragile because of certain fundamental negativising factors relative to how the political economic financial system of the West function.

    But what does mean to this DLP Government and Hartley Henry, even as they have become prone to comparing certain things about the Obama Administration and this David Thompson Administration? What have they really learned about the credit crisis, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the recession, and the recovery from there in the USA?

    For, the way how they have been attending to matters of the so-called Barbados economy shows that they have NOT been learning much for those situations in the USA . Moreover, they have NOT understood is the necessity or the importance of a country’s material and financial affairs undergoing well thought out properly implemented restructuring rehabilitation programs in order to move forward.

    Well, Mr. Thompson, like Mr. Sandiford would have then in 1992/3, has had his eyes fixed firmly on the election clock – meanwhile, the proper development of many of this country’s affairs takes a back seat.

    Well, former Prime Minister Owen Arthur and the BLP paid the price, politically electorally, for not only not leading the way, but also for failing to properly restructure and reorganize the material and financial affairs of the country. It is time the broad mass of voters of this country do the honourable thing – send both the DLP and the BLP packing from out of the parliament of this country.

    For sure that is what needs to be done ultimately in this country in order that some political others who mean so well about the proper sustained development of this country will take their places.

    So, Down with the Damned DLP and the Blasted BLP!!

    PDC

  6. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    Inadvertence – paragraph four from the bottom – it should have been, in line 2 – “learning much from those situations”, and, in respect of line 3 – “is” should NOT have been included in that part of the sentence.

    Thank You.

    PDC

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Looks like HH and BU got it wrong about Manning calling elections. He just did.

  8. Donald Duck, Esq Avatar
    Donald Duck, Esq

    HH

    Ya got it wrong this time!!!! Quack Quack!!!!!

    What kind of political analyst are you?

  9. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    It was clear for all to see that Manning was going to call elections.

  10. Trini Avatar
    Trini

    I guess you got it wrong… Stick to Bajan politics… We do it differently in T&T!

  11. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    Yes Enuff aka Sylvan Greenidge, you had that call from Mr Manning and he advised you about what he was planning to do today.

    There is no error in Mr Henry’s reading of this situatuion, should Mr Manning win this election he would prove us all wrong.

    He seems to me to have found himself between a rock and a hard place as would have Owing had he won the last election as both of them would have been faced with massive claims of FRAUD against the state, the difference here is that the good people of Barbados had the good sense to grasp the opportunity to evict the crooks from office as opposed to what the Trini’s opted for.

  12. Mike De Trini Avatar
    Mike De Trini

    As a matter of fact, PM Manning just has asked the President to desolve Parliament, ppl are predicting a June/July election.

    The current opposition parties in T&T are NOT fit to rule T&T and NEVER will I my opinion, as long as they ONLY want to play race card politicks which is what Indian parties in T&T and much more so in Guyana is famous for.

    The current “scandal” in T&T is mostly about the lack of gov’t oversight on massive construction projects undertaken by the state one particular project the head of the agency tasked with the job his wife may have had relatives on the board of the Maylasian company given a contract to build an office building, (built on time & on budget) so this is mostly a “conflict of interest” or a matter of “ethics” NOT missing millions as the Indian led opposition is claiming.

    The current Kamla is NOT some “leader” with a prestine past, when she was minister while on a month long trip to Europe claimed she was “robbed” of her gov’t issue credit card and was then given a NEW one!
    http://www.newsday.co.tt/politics/0,57534.html

    Barbadians should not be fooled by the Guardian newspaper as it is now run by the unc party and hand picked by Basdeo Panday to write propaganda for him and his party.(some by Guyanese communist Indians from that sorry state’s ruling party)

    http://guardian.co.tt/news/general/2010/04/08/kamla-impressed-florida-police

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/3740328.stm (brother of former Panday A.G and wanna be PM of the UNC)

    As for FIFA “vice” President Jack Warner judge for yourself his “prime ministerial conduct”.

  13. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    “I do not believe general elections are imminent in that country. Patrick Manning is easily one of the most politically cunning operatives in the region today. He successfully diverted public attention from a major money scandal involving several senior PNM operatives as well as “watered down” the impact of the coronation of Kamla Bassad-Parsar as Prime Minister-In-Waiting, by dropping the hint of imminent general elections. This is the classic Foolish Virgins political strategy; as clearly Manning is hoping that Kamla and her UNC would peak in the coming weeks, thus burning their popularity lamps dry and not having adequate appeal by the time the actual poll is held. ”
    _________________________________________________

    WIV that statement is as clear as Manning’s intent prior to the announcement.

    The PNM stands a far better chance now that there is no unified opposition i.e no UNC-COP alliance and Panday still disgruntled.

    WIV, you going senile who is Sylvan Greenidge?

  14. David Avatar
    David

    @Enuff

    The problem for Manning here is more about the no-confidence motion which was slated to be debated tomorrow. Manning’s action has in effect stop the debate. There is also the report which is to be discussed about corruption in government which is expected to be discussed as well. Manning possibly found himself between a rock and a hard place. The opposition is probably riding their highest popularity at the moment.

  15. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    This situation compares well with our own outcome for our last election results.

    Like Manning so to was Owing being bombarded with exposures of dishonesty and corruption and one scandal after the other, The Prison, The 3 S Roadworks, The Hard Wood Housing scam, The Oval, The Bribes for Favours, The Holders Land Deal, The Kent Land Scam, just one piece of fraud followed the other with Muttley and Owing being the moving and driving forces behind the worst corruption ever carried out by Barbadians against Barbadians.

    Like Owing, Manning has tried to play powerful stupid by trying to scare people with an election verdict, it will be me or no one else can lead, maybe knowing how sick he is he has chosen to throw in the rag before going to Parliament and being rejected by his own party and his own people.

    There is a lesson to be learnt for both Owing’s and Manning’s corruption and gross arrogance and it is that the people are really the powerhouses of politics not the Manning’s or the Owing’s or Muttley’s of this world with every bone and muscle corrupted and warped in theft and dishonesty.

  16. Brutus Avatar
    Brutus

    @Wishing in Vain,

    We are tired of hearing these allegations. Isn’t it about time that someone was charged with these crimes you allege? The DLP needs to take action or stop making these allegations. Also, when will we have the anticorruption and freedom of information legislation that was promised?

  17. gadfly Avatar
    gadfly

    Hartley Henry is trying to make a science out of his political ramblings. He said Patrick Manning would not be so drunk to call elections at this time and he did. Henry can only impress the gulible with his political hogwash. I am ashamed that Henry can impress David Thompson with his foolishness which passes as political analysis. Is Henry an Obeah-man?

  18. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    I am ashamed that Henry can impress David Thompson.

    He impressed and he dealt you and your band of vagabonds a defeat of stunning proportions and you were saying ????

    One that you continue to hurt from as it stands now, the BLP does not know if it has a man or a woman leading it, that is just how bad his licks were inflicted in you and your corrupt clan of crooks.

  19. Wishing In Vain Avatar
    Wishing In Vain

    Symmonds vs. Symmonds

    Shhhhhhhhhhh… She’s Royal has been awfully quiet this week, not because she has contracted laryngitis or has been observing the Easter season, we don’t believe. Rather, we surmise that she has been quietly planning for the unseating of one of the proposed candidates in St James Central. After dismissing him from the Senate on grounds that he explained to be personal, his boss has now attracted her political wrath. We told you that
    Mia will not retreat or surrender and that she is a glutton for punishment. She will go after him for what he said publicly and we will tell you how.

    Mia knows how to protect herself in times of need, and so our attention has been turned to the brewing war between Kerrie and his alleged competition. An assertive young female who hails from the country and knows everything about Kerrie, inside and outside. Yes, there is to be a battle of Symmonds versus Symmonds whenever the vote is taken in St James Central. The wife of Kerrie is reported to be in heavy consultations with the Powers That Be to secure this nomination. We know of her political ambitions as a young female, but to oppose Kerrie will certainly attract some of his political venom.

    If Owen is openly supporting Kerrie to the extent that Kerrie speaks publicly against the party’s Leader, it is only logical for us to assume that Mia’s choice of political power lies in the female Symmonds. This Symmonds versus Symmonds race will define the divide and strong female opposition to the male Symmonds. It was not too long ago, that Kerrie
    Symmonds mounted a political platform and embarrassed the then Opposition Party by referring to the females of the Barbados Labor Party as a ‘1 000 pounds of blubber’. The comment was most dehumanising coming from a public figure and an attorney-at-law. We trust that the females of the Barbados Labour Party will rise up and support Mia on this count. She has had a very poor run of judgment, but we are supporting her on this matter as it is authored by principle.

    We have intelligence as to the manner in which the female Symmonds is to be packaged and offered as a viable alternative to the former Cabinet Minister turned Anti-Mia campaigner. The upward struggle in which Kerrie now finds himself was preordained. His rush and push for power in all forms, shapes and fashions has landed him squarely in the backyard of public opinion. We already have seen the letter writers to the print media questioning his decision and motive to return to the political fray. We know of his inability as a Member of Parliament; his lack of achievement and impact is a matter of public record. We urge you, on the other side, to give Mia your full support on this one, as she is sound in her call. The further the Barbados Labour Party keeps Kerrie away from public life, the less fear of embarrassment they will have to endure.

    We will sit on the sidelines, watching how the political blood sport is facilitated by some without getting their hands dirty. This is symbolic of how and what the youth of the Barbados Labour Party mean to the Party’s future. They treat them as minds waiting to be manipulated by those pursuing narrow political ambitions. We await the vote. Advertisement

  20. Bajan Goddess Avatar
    Bajan Goddess

    This is an interesting time in Trinidad now that parliament has been dissolved and with the opposition leader calling the move to ask for a dissolution of parliament as an act of cowardice on the part of Mr Manning. Interestingly enough, The UWI Cave Hill Faculty of Law is celebrating 40 years as a faculty and as maybe luck would have it, Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be addressing the campus in honour of these celebrations.

    The lecture will be on Tuesday, 13th April 2010 @ 7:30pm in the Moot Court in the Faculty of Law. If you want to attend, you will have to get there quite early in order to get a good seat as the moot court is not a large room.

    I saw this on a flyer yesterday and I thought wow, how interesting. I know I’ll be there

  21. mash up & buy back Avatar
    mash up & buy back

    Kamla persad sadly is not someone who is fit to be leader of any country.

    If you follow their local newspapers you will see that before this alliance between she and jack warner,when he was running for leader of the UNC,he is quoted in the newspaper as saying he has a file on kamla,and even basdeo panday then leader of the UNC talked about how she is a chronic alcoholic and used to turn up for work as minister in the 90’s very drunk.

    An archive search before kamla was leader of UNC will reveal some unsavoury things about her.

    She is like a chameleon who will change to suit the enviroment she is in,ie baptists,hindu,catholic,afro,indian,lol.

  22. Alex Fergusson Avatar
    Alex Fergusson

    The DLP does not know what it is doing. But Barbados would be better by far with the BLP :

    As was mentioned elsewhere, the DLP is about distraction tactic. The DLP has nothing useful to say or add, neither does it have any solutions to the problems facing Barbados.

    Therefore, to hide its incompetence – every DLP Minister and M.P., will make some outrageous comment, just to take the public’s attention off the economy; the high cost of living; escalating crime, high under and unemployment, the gun issue in Parliament, Clico and the DLP’s broken promises–including its inability to build 2000 houses every year or give 500 house spots, as it promised.

    These distractions are also intended to hide the DLP’s dangerous mismanagement of the economy, the perilous state of the Barbados economy and the fact that the DLP does not know what to do or what it is doing–hence these distraction tactics.

    How is children traveling on Mini-Buses, changing the name of the Training Board; building a Chapel or no wukking-up at Crop Over – such topical issues, when the portfolio that is really in crisis – is that of PM david thompson.

    Yet, not a word from him about how he plans to grow the economy; create jobs, lower the cost of living, reduce crime or restore investor and consumer confidence?

    It is why the DLP should do the honourable thing and resign or simply do like PM Patrick Manning and call elections.

    The DLP does not know what it is doing. Barbadians would be better off by far under a BLP government, which gave this country 14 years of prosperity.

    +++++++++++++++++++++

    I had the decision not to post here becuase casual reseach would show that Hartley Henry gets less than 25 post on anything he writes in recent times, especially when the average on anything BU puts-up, gets upwards of 75 posts by different bloggers.

    Of the 15 Henry gets, about 10 are from Wishing In Vain.

  23. theNickster Avatar
    theNickster

    in light of these particular examples of political smokescreens would like to point out the whole “Vybz and Movado” hoopla to distract the from the “PM and Clico” show!

  24. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    UNC, COP TO WRAP UP UNITY TALKS

    The respective leaderships of the Opposition UNC and minority COP party are expected to buckle down to the final leg of unity talks in 72 hours, COP Chairman Roy Augustus said Friday. COP acting leader Wendy Lee Yuen said that the final segment of talks between both parties was expected no earlier than Monday. Lee Yuen spoke as COP leader Winston Dookeran and COP Deputy Leader Prakash Ramadhar were scheduled to arrive home on Friday night from India and the US, respectively.

    UNC leader Pamla Persad-Bissessar also gave the assurance that she would arrange a meeting convenient to both parties regarding the unity issue after the COP leaders returned from overseas. “I will do every thing to ensure we have a one-on-one fight with the PNM for this upcoming election,” she said.

    A number of people are already being tipped from both sides as “unity candidates” for various reasons. Lee Yuen said: “We are committed to this and there is no doubt this (unity arrangement) is going to happen.. There’s is a multi-pronged approach and talks are underway.” Augustus said he was more concerned about the foundations of the system than seats at this point. COP’s screening process begins next week. UNC begins screening next Tuesday. (Trinidad Guardian) Taken from the Barbados Advocate, Sunday, April 11, 2010.

    Against the backdrop of the above behind-time news story, we would like to say a few things about the decision of Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister to advise the President of Trinidad and Tobago “to dissolve” the country’s Parliament – a mere two and a half years after the last General Election was held in Trinidad and Tobago.

    1) Prime Minister Patrick Manning, though viewing the situation of Ms. Bissessar basking in the favourability of her new position as Oppostion Leader; the situation of the UNC’s no-confidence motion in the government, etc. with some concern in relation to the successful clinical removal of the un-Prime Ministerial Basdeo Panday as Political Leader of the UNC, and hence the overcoming of the obstacle of the unelectability of a Panday Government, ( Bissessar’s chances are greater at becoming PM than would have been Panday’s); and the heightening of the perception of more and more Trinidad and Tobagonians about the worsening managerial performance of his government – violent crimes still high – corruption still pervasive- etc.; those and more factors thereby influencing his decision to advise the President “to dissolve” the Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago, must however see, as greater sources of worry and distress to him and the PNM’s electoral chances, the convenient marriage between the UNC and the COP, and all that it brings with it, as far greater growing political electoral forces to contend with in terms of its capacity in the next election to attract greater votes than his party would attract sufficient to cause him to loose the next election. Remember that in the last General Election in Trinidad and Tobago, the UNC and COP combined got more votes than the PNM, and how Panday blasted Dookeran over the particular result!!!

    2) Manning’s perception of the reality of the great threat posed to his party’s reelection bid by a unified UNC and COP partially explains why there has been “a dissolution” of Parliament, but why there has not been an election date set as yet – which the PDC however expects within the next week or so.

    Manning’s bid to deal directly with this threat – in one way – through the holding of general elections, will fail significantly mainly because of the fact that the politics of Trinidad and Tobago has long been largely played out on the basis of race. The PNM is largely supported by the Afro-Trinidad and Tobagonians, and the UNC and COP are largely supported by the Indo-Trinidad and Tobagonians. The populations of these two major races are roughtly the same. So, any cracks in either of these support bases would have to be caused by fundamental non-racial factors but also will have to be ultimately filled by resort to the race factor.

    Thus, with Panday’s style of leadership of the UNC (abrasive and dictatorial ), and which helped caused Dookeran and others to form the COP, out of the way – it is felt by many UNC and COP supporters that it is better in the interests of the Indian race for both those parties and supporters to come together politically for Indians to regain their relative political dominance in the parliament and government of the country, than continue to be split up and not dominate the parliament and government of the country – wherefore fewer material and financial benefits for Indians from there will be the case rather than if they were dominating the parliament and government of the country.

    Too, Manning apparently does NOT NOW have and WILL NOT EVER IN THE LEAD UP TO THE ELECTION ITSELF have any real electoral strategy for dealing with this convenient political marriage between the UNC and COP, therefore no date has been set.

    He is adopting a “wait and see” approach in regard of realizing what will mainly figure from this arrangement; what form it will take, how many Trinidad and Tobagonians will respond to it and in what ways esp. through the media. The latter SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER FOREGOING REASON informs why Manning has NOT set a date as yet. Another SIGNIFICANT reason is that Manning is NOT totally ready for elections even though he has got the Parliament “dissolved”. The PNM’s candidate selection process is NOT complete. When the candidate selection process is sufficiently firmed up, he will announce a date – NOT before – and this election will allow for a relatively short campaign. ( However, it is non-sensical and outrageous that Prime Ministers within our English Speaking Caribbean still have this power to say when General Elections and by-Elections are to be held)

    The PNM leader is NOT as confident as he was when he called the last General Election. His political mood and spirit is different, seems more inverted/introverted and more subdued than then, and the tone of political language used by him at this stage is different – less inspiring, less up beat than then, and his tactics more determined by the UNC/COP and public sectoral pressure, NOT based on PNM political electoral strategy – it is like the General in an army taking learning lessons from the enemy. Not good signs for Manning and the PNM.

    However, this delay in actually setting the date will cause greater political, esp. greater Oppositon public, pressure on Manning as to the real or mock reasons why Parliament was dissolved – well, say, to avoid his dealing with some political truths and any perceived political electoral fall out for him and his party?

    3) Manning is LYING. A mere No-Confidence motion IS NOT to prepare a party for a general election; a mere No-Confidence motion CANNOT cause a general election ( The Barbados Advocate, Saturday, April 10, 2010), at the same time this Prime Minister is rallying his troops, so to speak, and by which he is sure of government unity in defence against it. Indeed, a Parliamentary No-Confidence Motion is a parliamentary political device sought and best used by the Opposition to greater offset or off balance a government, or, a/ some government minister(s), with or as to the truth or falsity of their ill-performances or incapacities whilst in government. The history of No-Confidence motions in parliaments in the English Comon Wealth shows that they hardly succeed against governments or government ministers.

    4) The decision of Manning to advise the President “to dissolve” Parliament, seems to have caught the UNC and the COP off guard though, and esp. in such a way as would help make many people in Trinidad and Tobago and beyond realize that this commitment of theirs to have a marriage in time for the General Election, has NOT gone very far beyond that comitment itself and as well as they would like. In the above news story, just check what Bissessar is reported to have said and what Augustus and Lee Yuen are reported to have said too. Do not they seem confusing out of harmony out of step some what?

    But it does seem that their being caught off guard is inconsequential when considering the fact that it will have no bearing on the next general election outcome in Trinidad and Tobago.

    So, there you have it!!

    PDC

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