The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.

Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small


Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small



Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small


Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small


There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data:


  • A whole 11, wow!!

    Needs a flood to see movement


  • I really don’t think this ohmigod is the problem it has been made out to be.

    If you want to see another place affected by floods check Hawaii.

    Four weeks ago it washed way.

    Its water source is worth spending a little time investigating.

    It is pretty mountainous and all of its water is extracted from the ground.

    No Surface water from what I see.

    As far as COVID cases are concerned not very dissimilar to Barbados.

    Looking at the numbers across countries, I would say the airborne component of the spread in any country is pretty small.

    It’s the water that is the issue …. I’d estimate 90/10.

    So barring any floods, I think Barbados is cool.

    There will be fluctuations because of imported cases but for now we cool.


  • I’d say regarding Hawaii’s cases, they are getting close to plateauing and then reducing, barring anymore floods.

    Hawaii has a population of 1.4 million, several times our own but its peak so far after the floods is 3k, ours was around 400.

    Suggests to me that like Barbados, Hawaii has a <20% problem with its supply but the bulk of it, >80% is well protected underground.

    A country with a water supply far enough away from sewage for the time of travel to it greater than the time for which the virus remains active, is cool.

    Knox’s COVID Law!!


  • @John January 2, 2022 8:32 PM “It’s the water that is the issue…I’d estimate 90/10.”

    Its been months since anybody in my community got covid. Nobody except the guests who attended the party. We are all still drinking Bajan tap water. Still all healthy and hearty.

    What do you think is the problem? Why we drinking plenty Bajan tap water and int getting sick?


  • Hawaii, like us is a tourist destination.

    “In 2017 alone, according to state government data, there were over 9.4 million visitors to the Hawaiian Islands with expenditures of over $16 billion. Tourism makes up 21% of the state’s economy, with many of Hawaii’s largest industries revolving around the constant flow of tourists.”

    “The total amount of visitor spending in Hawaii from January to August 2021 was $7.98 billion, which is a 33.8% decrease from the $12.06 billion spent by visitors in the first eight months of 2019. The number of visitors during this same period in 2021 was 4,353,794 compared to 7,092,809 in 2019.”

    COVID caused a contraction in but was no big deal for Hawaii’s tourist industry.

    We actually have a strong suit with our water although successive GOBS have done their utmost to screw it up.

    Looks like we will be stuck with more idiots again.


  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 2, 2022 8:47 PM

    @John January 2, 2022 8:32 PM “It’s the water that is the issue…I’d estimate 90/10.”

    Its been months since anybody in my community got covid. Nobody except the guests who attended the party. We are all still drinking Bajan tap water. Still all healthy and hearty.

    What do you think is the problem? Why we drinking plenty Bajan tap water and int getting sick?


    Problem less than 20% and as the MOH has stated already, occurs mostly on the South Coast.

    … and 4 in 12 in your gap is well above the national average.


  • lyallsmallJanuary 2, 2022 8:06 PM

    Hants; Holidays; Fewer tests; Fewer positive results. Grenada reported 11 positive Omicron results yesterday.


    Fewer people feel the need to be tested.

    If ohmigod is really as contagious as claimed we should be into the thousands of cases by now.

    Grenada should explode soon.

    Barring floods, my guess it won’t, like us.


  • @John January 2, 2022 9:01 PM “…and 4 in 12 in your gap is well above the national average.”

    Except that I said 4 people from 12 HOUSEHOLDS. NOT 4 people out of 12 people. Most of the twelve households are occupied by multiple people, some are 3 generation households.


  • Cuhdear BajanJanuary 2, 2022 10:16 PM

    @John January 2, 2022 9:01 PM “…and 4 in 12 in your gap is well above the national average.”

    Except that I said 4 people from 12 HOUSEHOLDS. NOT 4 people out of 12 people. Most of the twelve households are occupied by multiple people, some are 3 generation households.


    In my area I know of no COVID cases … as in zero.

    Water is delivered to households in distribution areas of which they were 16 in 1978.

    It isn’t delivered to individual people.

    The meter is on the household, not on the individual.

    Individual people in households use water at different times.

    Luck and chance as to who gets clobbered and when.

    The only predictable outcome is zero virus delivered to a distribution area = zero cases observed in that area = zero cases observed in households in that area.

    This should be obvious to you given your extensive training and experience in data analysis.


  • How many households were the 4 persons spread across?

    Did any infected households have all of its members infected?

    If not, what would be your explanation?


  • Let’s look at Hawaii again.

    Hawaii, Maine and Vermont are the states least affected by COVID in the entire USA.

    If you look at deaths per 1 million, these have respectively, 773, 1,139 and 755.

    The deaths per million range from a low of 755, Vermont to a high of 3,511, Mississippi.

    The three states, Hawaii, Maine and Vermont, all obey Knox’s COVID Law!!

    Maine and Vermont are New England states not far from Hants in Ontario!!!

    Ontario has had 30,364 deaths, Vermont has had 471 and Hawaii, 1,094.

    Ontario has a population of 14.8 million, Vermont 0.65 million and Hawaii 1.4 million with another 9+ million tourists visiting during the year.


  • Next Country after Brazil and Israel to see a COVID surge I reckon will be Malaysia.

    Expect it will start mid January.


  • Check Tennessee

    Floods started back at the end of the year.

    Here’s the flood list up to August 2021.

    I could go on and I feel every prediction regarding COVID surges around the world I make will happen.

    This is not because I am some kind of clairvoyant but just because I have taken the time to examine the empirical evidence that is there.

    It is now second nature.


  • For now, we should be cool.


  • Omicron is less severe because it does not infiltrate the lungs


  • ‘Tsunami’ of Omicron cases expected to result in 20-30% absenteeism across all sectors in coming weeks

    Ontario is moving schools online for at least two weeks, temporarily closing indoor dining and gyms and pausing non-urgent medical procedures as it faces record-high case counts that, according to public health officials, threaten to overwhelm the province’s health-care system


  • DavidJanuary 3, 2022 1:47 PM

    Omicron is less severe because it does not infiltrate the lungs


    Sounds like it is a completely different disease, a second pandemic perhaps!!

    Is ohmigod even a coronavirus or just one more mysterious disease/plague that is emerging from sewage contaminated water?


  • David; You said at 11:48 am on January 1st.
    Sadly you are probably correct although some are suggesting it may be linked to Christmas and Vat free day activities.
    I think there is a distinct possibility of an imminent takeover of the Covid-19 epidemic in Barbados by the Omicron variant based on the following observations:-

    There now appears to be a consensus reporting that Omicron is the most transmissible human virus on record and that, in most countries, its effects are milder than the Delta virus it is replacing.

    Epidemics are all characterized by pathogenic microbes or viruses infecting susceptible hosts by going through a process in the host to produce new pathogens which then infect new susceptible hosts. Epidemics occur when environmental, host and pathogen conditions / factors are suitable for the disease cycle to move from one stage to another. The current factors that are inimical to the growth of the epidemic include an increasing natural population immunity plus an immunity conferred by the vaccinations giving rise to an overall reducing availability to Omicron of enough susceptible hosts to support explosive growth. This may also be partially caused by the population being more frightened of the Omicron variant and following the public health masking, washing and distancing protocols more rigorously.

    I don’t know what the UWI models are predicting but I would guess that they should be predicting maximal cases of 400 ish going down quite precipitately to sub 50 numbers within the next few weeks as Delta cases vanish and Omicron runs out of susceptible hosts.

    Epidemics have certain characteristics that can be used for predictive purposes.
    1) Slight upticks can sometimes be reasonably attributed to small events or conditions that are known to have some influence on disease spread and incidence and don’t generally last for long.
    2) Significant outbreaks can usually be attributed to events like a new aggressive variant taking over territory or a pathogen infecting a large proportion of susceptible inmates at a large institution where people might be able to move around relatively freely or a massive bus crawl type event where superspreaders infect large numbers of people at venues over a wide area. Such institutions might be large shut-in institutions like prisons or nursing homes or even rum shops.
    3) Regulatory and other by Contact tracing teams that are effective in stopping spread.

    The largest Covid-19 outbreaks in Barbados were; the Bus Crawl event of late December 2020 to mid-March 2021; The September 2021 incursion by the Delta variant; and now, what might be the beginning of a current takeover by the Omicron variant, started about 4 weeks ago.

    The attached graphs show a definite NEW wave that started around 18th December with a downturn around 1st January 2022. I suspect that that date probably marks the onset of the Omicron takeover. The Isolation/ Deaths chart indicates a possible reduction in deaths at this time.

    As you stated in your post some are attributing the current wave to gatherings related to the Christmas Season and Vat Free Day Celebrations. The small spike between 27th Nov and 6th Dec might arguably be partially attributable to Republic day activities but the caveat here is that the spike actually started before the large scale Republic Day activities and could not therefore be reasonably attributed to those activities. The small Christmas season spike in a declining Delta variant wave, also started before Christmas and was overtaken by the incoming large Omicron spike.

    John; Check Occam’s razor.


  • @Lyall

    If concern with Omicron is that the vulnerable group now includes babies and very young children based on reports.


  • David; Thanks!

    I have the updated charts (to today) that were referenced in my latest 8:04 pm post. Will post them to you later.

    Liked by 1 person


    Two-hundred cases of COVID-19 on January 2, from among the 896 tests conducted.


  • David;
    Sent charts. Will look for papers with new reports of effects on babies and young children.

    Liked by 1 person

  • I don’t know what the UWI models are predicting but I would guess that they should be predicting maximal cases of 400 ish going down quite precipitately to sub 50 numbers within the next few weeks as Delta cases vanish and Omicron runs out of susceptible hosts.



    You best had make sure that the numbers don’t have in a second source, imported cases.

    Even cases going to 400 in a day is peanuts when compared with the case numbers in the UK claimed for be from the ohmigod strain.

    The question I think we are going to be left with is how come ohmigod is so contagious in the UK and not here?

    The obvious answer I reckon will be that the water supply in the UK does a better job vectoring the virus to individual households than it does here.

    How can cases precipitately fall to 50 when the ohmigod strain is supposed to be so contagious?

    … and how can the ohmigod strain run out of hosts by infecting only 400 per day?

    Screwy logic.


  • I mean, our population is around 300,000.

    You know that, right?


  • Here are the graphs Lyall.


  • Cases like they going down!!

    Isolations trending slightly up.

    This can’t be ohmigod!!

    Probably put this link up before but here it is again.

    Describes the impact of the climate on the Spanish Flu pandemic!!

    … and that was a century before people started talking about climate change!!

    If you look at the numbers in any country or indeed world wide, there is a periodicity, a seasonality if you like, that hits you in the face.

    I would posit that the Spanish Flu pandemic ended when the weather improved, just as this one will!!

    Nothing wrong in strengthening our controls over our water supply.

    That’s where we should be directing resources.

    Vaccination is a waste of resources.


  • So, not looking good for us humans.

    Everything we have done so far has not worked!!

    Cases going into overdrive.


  • @Lyall

    “From infants to teens, this hospital has a deluge of young Covid-19 patients. Here’s what parents want others to know”


  • The current burning question with increasing spread and decreasing rate of deaths infected is:

    what is the half life(±) of Covid and it’s various strains

    data figures could be broken down by
    vaccinated / unvaccinated
    and age
    and health / level of fitness etc

    although manipulators of truths and reasoning manipulate and misrepresent data
    for low level information misinformation agendas

    (±) the time taken for the radioactivity of a specified isotope to fall to half its original value.


  • Hants

    I’ll tell you how to keep yourself and your family safe from COVID in your house.

    You need 2 tanks each with a 6 week capacity for your house.

    Fill the two and then wait 6 weeks.

    Supply your house from one tank for 6 weeks.

    Switch over to the second tank.

    Fill the first.

    Supply your house from the second tank.


    Six weeks seems to be adequate to render the virus ineffective in water.

    You may need longer as the temperature up your side will prolong the effectiveness of the virus in water.


  • …. and don’t use any water outside your home.


  • So if all the world on average has cases rising to infinity because of ohmigod and Barbados has ohmigod, how come cases in Barbados are falling and struggling to get past 200 per day?

    There has to be another reason for rising cases worldwide other than ohmigod!!!

    Doesn’t get simpler than that.

    We can eliminate ohmigod from our cogitations.


  • In fact, we can eliminate any consideration that somehow the virus can spread on its own because of the huge variability in outcomes across countries.

    We can eliminate masks, social distancing, sanitizing also again because of the huge variability in outcomes across countries as solutions because by now unless you are blind, they do not prevent surges.

    So what else goes into households and sometimes randomly selects, sometimes not members of the household?


    Which utilities are candidates?

    We can eliminate electricity and telephone because both of these utilities are pretty standard from country to country and yet the variability in outcomes across countries is immense.

    Gas is also pretty standard from country to country.

    So we are left with water as the most likely carrier.

    It’s quality varies immensely from country to country and often is the subject of the vagaries of the weather.

    …. you get where I am going!!


  • It really isn’t at all difficult.


  • @John January 4, 2022 4:33 PM “…you get where I am going!!”

    Black Rock?

    Liked by 1 person

  • The Spanish Flu, the American flu really, as it seems that that it really started there ended when about 40% of the world’s population had caught it, and when 50 to 100 million of them had died.

    Covid 19 would likely been done by now if we had done nothing and let 50 to 100 million people die.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Covid: Vaccines for all every four to six months not needed, says expert

    By Lauren Turner
    BBC News

    Vaccinating everyone on the planet against Covid-19 regularly is not sustainable or affordable, a UK vaccine scientist has said.

    Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped develop the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, said the most at risk should be identified and prioritised instead.

    He said the vaccine rollout had gone “extremely well” in the UK but other parts of the world were falling behind.

    Booster jabs have been offered to all eligible adults in the UK.

    How and when can I get a booster?
    What are the self-isolation rules?
    Find out how many cases are in your area

    There has been a surge of Omicron cases in the UK, with a record 218,724 cases reported on Tuesday.

    However, this figure includes a backlog of two days worth of cases from Wales and four days of cases from Northern Ireland, due to the holiday weekend.

    But Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said the government “doesn’t see any data to suggest that further restrictions would be the right approach” in England.

    He said the public should be “in no doubt” it would be a difficult time for the NHS but there were mitigations in place to help them through a “challenging winter”.

    A number of hospital trusts have declared critical incidents, with coronavirus cases leading to staff shortages and increased pressure on services.

    Plan B measures currently in place – including mask wearing in some indoor settings and guidance to work from home where possible – are “the correct course”, the spokesman added.

    Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government was not looking at cutting the self-isolation period for those who test positive to five days.

    Speaking after visiting a vaccination centre in south London, he said the current rules allowing people to leave their 10 days isolation early if they test negative on days six and seven was the “right, balanced, proportionate approach”.

    The prime minister will host a Downing Street news conference later. He will be joined by chief medical officer for England Prof Sir Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.
    New variants may change view

    Prof Pollard told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It really is not affordable, sustainable or probably even needed to vaccinate everyone on the planet every four to six months.

    “We haven’t even managed to vaccinate everyone in Africa with one dose so we’re certainly not going to get to a point where fourth doses for everyone is manageable.”

    There is not “full certainty” on whether another booster might be needed in the UK, added Prof Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.

    He said the UK would be in a good position if variants continued to lead to milder disease, as has been the case with Omicron.

    “We may well need to have boosters for the vulnerable in the population but I think it’s highly unlikely that we’ll have programmes going forwards regularly of boosting everyone over the age of 12,” he added.

    Prof Pollard said those who would need further boosters were likely to be older adults or those with health conditions.

    “There will be new variants after Omicron,” he added. “We don’t yet know how they’re going to behave – and that may completely change the view on what the right thing to do is.”

    Prof Pollard is chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which advises the government on vaccines, but he has no involvement in decision-making on Covid-19 vaccinations in the UK.

    Maggie Throup, minister for vaccines and public health, told the BBC the government would take advice from the JCVI about a fourth Covid vaccine dose programme and then “decide whether it’s appropriate”.

    She said it was important for people to have their boosters now, or first or second doses if they had not yet done so.

    Infectious disease expert Prof Neil Ferguson said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Covid cases were starting to plateau in London in the 18-50 age group, which had been seeing especially high numbers.

    The epidemiologist said case numbers should start to fall in the next week in the English capital, and in other regions from a week to three weeks’ time.

    He also said current case data was not giving the full picture, with test kits in short supply over Christmas and re-infections not being counted in the official figures – some 10-15% of Omicron cases are re-infections, he added.

    But it is too early to tell what happens next, especially because of “current mixing trends” and the “effect of open schools” – with pupils returning to classrooms from Tuesday.

    Covid-related staff and pupil absences are expected this term with teaching unions saying it is likely some will be sent home to learn remotely at times. Face-to-face teaching will remain the norm, says England’s Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi.

    Prof Ferguson said it was likely there would be “quite high infection levels” in school-aged children – albeit with mild illness.

    The fact Omicron is less severe than previous variants is “good news” and vaccines are “holding up against severe disease and against severe outcomes well”, he added.

    But “that doesn’t mean it’s not going to be, as the prime minister said, a difficult few weeks for the NHS”.

    Source: BBC website


  • The epidemiologist said case numbers should start to fall in the next week in the English capital, and in other regions from a week to three weeks’ time.


    The solution is to fix the various municipal water supplies around the world and make them less amenable to contamination in case of floods.

    Individual households need also to look at finding ways of not using water until it has sat for six weeks or some sort of UV sterilization at the service entrance.

    It is true that in some European countries cases have fallen but they are unfortunately back on the rise eg Germany/Netherlands.

    In others, cases have been on the rise, Italy, France/Spain.

    Which group will the UK follow?

    I think up that side it all depends on the weather.

    Same is true for the northern part of the North American continent.


  • Critical Analyzer

    Has anyone noticed the number of vaccinated in secondary and tertiary isolation are starting to outstrip the unvaccinated numbers. Primary isolation numbers are still mostly unvaxxed but will these numbers also shift too since it takes time to deteriorate from secondary to primary care.

    Does this mean the vaccines starting to fail shifting us to a pandemic of the vaccinated?


  • Critical AnalyzerJanuary 5, 2022 5:34 AM

    Maybe alot of the vaccinated are from over and away.

    If a visitor tests positive which they might, chances are they will be vaccinated.


  • There are two populations in Barbados, one is close to if not 100% vaccinated and the other is not.

    The GOB needs to be more specific with cases.

    We need to know how many of the cases are imported.

    We also need to know the geographic location of all cases.

    Otherwise we are running around like a chicken with its head cut off.


  • Hong Kong in banning flights from both the UK and USA.

    Two weeks however I doubt will be long enough.

    The UK and USA have serious weather and water problems that aren’t going to miraculously disappear in 2 weeks.

    I still like the gamble to welcome tourists here.

    In fact if it pans out how I am thinking, this and other locations may be the perfect quarantine location for those able to afford it.


  • Look at Hong Kong’s COVID cases.

    Obviously they want zero but they are never going to get zero once the flights resume.

    It makes more sense if the means of spreading the virus is under tight control to benefit from the people who desire to come.

    It is a calculated gamble but it should be taken, once they are in control principally of their water supply..

    Click to access local_situation_covid19_en.pdf


  • In Hong Kong, of the 37 cases only 1 is local, all the other cases are imported or linked to an imported case.

    The partying over the festive season at the various locations seems to have been the cause in the blip and most appear to be young people who will throw it off.

    The only restrictions I could see as realistic to place on incoming tourists is that they are vaccinated and under say 50.


  • Here’s the culprit.


  • igrunt wrasse whole idiots


  • There were 479 new COVID-19 cases – 191 males and 288 females – recorded on Tuesday, January 4, 2022, from the 2 111 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.


  • Coming back down!!!


    Sounds like young people went spreeing over Christmas.

    We’ll see a spike and then a rapid fall off as cases resolve.


  • Now if you want to see the real thing, look at Australia.

    A month ago, floods in the east.


  • Cases in orbit now in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

    Tens of thousands.

    Over in WA (Western Australia) under 10 per day as in TEN!!

    Check it, difficult to believe.

    Hate to say it but I told you so.

    Until we address water we will be always held hostage to COVID.

    We can eradicate this virus.


  • The difference between contracting it the airborne way and the waterborne way is dosage.

    It is more likely people catching it face to face from each other will not be terribly sick

    If they get it from the water, they are likely candidates for hospitalization.


  • JohnDecember 21, 2021 10:55 AM

    If you want an idea what will probably happen in the rest of December, January and possibly February around the world, check the oninino index and google what happened with floods 1999-2001 and 2010-2012.

    We’ve been there, done that but the last twice the virus did not exist!


    So, anyone took a look at floods in the periods as suggested?

    Here is Australia in 2011.

    Difference 10 years on is COVID.


  • The climate cycles determine when the floods occur and when the temperature falls.

    We happen to be in a La Nina cycle.

    It is a mistake to confuse it with the notion of Climate Change.

    The cycles affect the world on a global scale.

    Unfortunately, in this cycle of floods, we have a deadly virus which is clearly water borne.


  • Up north, back in April 2001 after a severe winter and lots of snow there was a snow melt which caused flooding.

    20 years ago.

    The Mississippi also flooded in 2001

    So peoples up north can expect the possibility of COVID surges right through to perhaps June.

    Brazil had floods every month last year for the first 6 months. Not long had more so looks like Brazil will have more problems.

    Barring floods, once we get past this spike seemingly caused by young people celebrating we could be ok.


  • @ David,

    I just listend to the ” Update ” and would like to know why the PM called an election knowing that the omicron variant was ” coming “


  • @Hants

    Only the PM knows.

    Liked by 1 person

  • 3 500 daily peak

    UWI study outlines worst-case scenario of Omicron
    LATER THIS MONTH Barbados could be faced with a COVID-19 surge peaking at 3 500 cases daily as a result of the Omicron variant.
    This is according to a worst-case scenario in the most recent modelling by the University of the West Indies’ George Alleyne Chronic Disease Research Centre.
    A synopsis of the study was disclosed during a nationally televised update yesterday evening held by Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley.
    Also present was Minister of Health and Wellness, the Most Honourable Jeffrey Bostic, Chief Medical Officer The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George, head of the isolation facilities Dr Corey Forde and Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Anton Best.
    Explaining what the study showed, Best said the immediate concern was the potential of the variant to overwhelm the country’s health system. He said home isolation would be key to managing the surge, which is expected to burnout much faster than those involving other variants.
    He also stressed that booster shots would play an integral role in keeping hospitalisations down, urging all people who are now into their sixth month after their second
    jab, to get their boosters.
    “When we looked at the worst-case scenario, we looked at a wave lasting in the order of six to seven weeks.
    We believe that at the peak we are looking at 3 500 cases per day and the total amount of cases that we expect over this six to seven-week period is just over 91 000 cases in Barbados. If you looked at a shorter wave length of just over one month, we are looking at a maximum of just over 1 200 cases per day at the peak, which would result in a total case load of 28 000 at the end of the wave,” said Best He further explained: “With Omicron we are particularly interested in the burden on the health care system, particularly the hospitalisations. When I speak of hospitalisations, I am specifically referring to what happens in our isolation facilities. This is important for planning to ensure that we have capacity at the isolation facilities. In the best-case scenario, we are looking at 1.2 per cent of persons infected with the Omicron variant being hospitalised and in the worst-case scenario we are looking at three per cent of the positive cases being hospitalised.”
    The epidemiological model shows that on the high end, due to the presence of the Omicron variant, Barbados could peak at over 900 cases per hundred thousand daily, a 720 per cent increase from the Delta variant, which recorded 125 cases per one hundred thousand at its peak. The study shows that at three per cent, the peak in hospital would be 688, while at 1.2 per cent the peak in hospital would be at 198 people.
    Also weighing in on the results of the study commissioned by the Ministry of Health, George made it clear that for the self-isolation programme to work, personal responsibility must be paramount, as the focus must now be shifted to those in need of urgent care.
    “We will be there to hold your hand during the process of self-isolation, but what I am asking the public to understand is that because of the high numbers, you will be isolating with minimum medical intervention. We will hold your hand if issues occur. We have three categories, green, yellow and red.”
    Red category
    “The reds are the persons that would require almost immediate attention by the isolation facility while the greens are individuals who are asymptomatic and do not have risk factors for an adverse effect for COVID. Those would be the individuals under self-isolation programme. Those persons who are yellow and are unvaccinated are the persons who would require an assessment
    in a facility,” said George.
    Pointing to the recent discovery of a new variant in France, Mottley said with the uncertainty of what lies ahead, it was best to get the polls out of the way.
    “When people ask why would you call an election now? I made the point that we are literally trying to fight these things as one nation and in those circumstances it is critical that we put this behind us. If there was any doubt about this being a marathon, the news of new variant coming out of France should tell us that we remain at risk. There is no telling what is ahead of us, we are not even good into Omicron, but we are talking about a new variant. We are not even good into vaccinating numbers in Africa and Latin America sufficiently, so that we know that the risk for these new variants will continue for some time,” Mottley stressed.
    Mottley also encouraged Barbadians to go for their booster shots, while urging those who have not been vaccinated as yet to consider the evidence and science which shows that individuals who are inoculated stand a better chance.
    “We ask you please to protect yourself at all costs. . . The protection is also wearing masks, distancing and sanitising,” she said.

    Source: Nation


  • French researchers report new strain
    PARIS – As the world grapples with the highly mutated Omicron variant, scientists have identified a new strain of the COVID-19 causing virus in southern France.
    Known as “IHU”, the B.1.640.2 variant has been reported by researchers at institute IHU Mediterranee Infection in at least 12 cases and has been linked to travel to the African country of Cameroon.
    However, researchers said it was too early to speculate on how this variant behaves as far as infection and protection from vaccines was concerned.
    The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv on December 29, revealed that IHU has 46 mutations and 37 deletions, resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions.
    Amino acids are molecules that combine to form proteins and both are the building blocks of life.
    Fourteen amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and nine deletions are located in the spike protein.
    Most currently used vaccines are targeted at the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which the virus uses to enter and infect the cells.
    “The mutation set and phylogenetic position of the genomes obtained here indicate, based on our previous definition, a new variant we named IHU,” the authors of the study said.
    “These data are another example of the unpredictability of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and of their introduction in a given geographical area from abroad,” they added.
    The B.1.640.2 has not been identified in other countries so far or labelled a variant under investigation by the World Health Organisation.
    According to the researchers,
    the index (first) case was an adult diagnosed positive by RTPCR performed in a laboratory on a nasopharyngeal sample collected in mid-November last year.
    Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding posted a long Twitter thread in which he said that new variants keep emerging but it does not necessarily mean they will be more dangerous.
    ‘’What makes a variant more well-known and dangerous is its ability to multiply because of the number of mutations it has in relation to the original virus,’’ Feigl-Ding tweeted.
    “This is when it becomes a ‘variant of concern’ – like Omicron, which is more contagious and more past immunity evasive. It remains to be seen in which category this new variant will fall,’’ he said.
    Many countries are currently experiencing a spike in COVID-19 cases driven by the Omicron variant which was first identified in South Africa and Botswana in November last year.
    Since then, the variant of concern has spread to more than 100 countries.


  • HantsJanuary 5, 2022 10:14 PM

    @ David,

    I just listend to the ” Update ” and would like to know why the PM called an election knowing that the omicron variant was ” coming “


    Like all governments in the world, Ms. Mockley’s Government is responsible for delivering the water to households which has killed its citizens.

    This is a whole different ballgame.

    Corruption can be swept under the carpet, deaths cannot … or maybe they can.

    This is the kind of pressure none of these politicians signed up for.


  • 420 positive COVID-19 cases from the 1 978 tests conducted on Wednesday, January 5.

    The cases comprised 65 people under the age of 18, and 355 who were ( voting age ? ) 18 years and older.


  • The positive cases comprised 71 persons under the age of 18, and 408 ( VOTING AGE ) who were 18 years and older on Tuesday

    doan have to read an spell fuh wunna.



  • Hants; John; David.

    Here’s my 2-cents worth re. Mia calling the elections early:

    Its actually all about a strategic look at Covid and Ometron. The UWI worse case scenario, which raises the spectre of an imminent 3,500 Covid-19 Omicron cases per day at its peak, would be apocalyptic for almost every aspect of life in Barbados for the next several years. Its political and social consequences would be enormous.

    As such, in the face of this threat, sticking to a traditional election date in 2023 might risk even more catastrophic effects in Barbadian life and society if Omicron behaves according to the worse case scenario. This might even be so in a best case scenario where Omicron’s replacement by more virulent new variants could make life here more difficult. In other words, leaving the election until 2023 is more likely to result in a DLP win while bringing it forward is more likely to result in a BLP win now.

    Perhaps, in deciding to bring forward the elections by 1 1/2 years, the view by the BLP leaders might have been to have the election now, win, and then have 5 continuous years to get the economy and society back on a proper growth track, rather than risking a reverse white wash in 2023 by a new government that might still be battling the pandemic or its effects but with little governmental experience in fighting off serious challenges while moving forward.

    The counter argument might be that the worst-case scenario is unlikely to happen. Cases and other deleterious effects from the Omicron wave could therefore turn out to be much less than the UWI model is predicting even if new variants complicate the picture. If this turns out to be so, proactive early elections might still be the best call.

    Calling the elections now makes sense for the BLP but does not help the DLP significantly.


  • January 6, 2022 9:42 PM

    The positive cases comprised 71 persons under the age of 18, and 408 ( VOTING AGE ) who were 18 years and older on Tuesday

    doan have to read an spell fuh wunna.



    Many of the cases are those young people who went out spreeing around Christmas and Old Years night.

    Numbers seem to be going down as they resolve.

    Young so will throw off easy.

    May be back in double figures by elections.


  • lyallsmallJanuary 6, 2022 9:57 PM

    Hants; John; David.

    Here’s my 2-cents worth re. Mia calling the elections early:

    Its actually all about a strategic look at Covid and Ometron. The UWI worse case scenario, which raises the spectre of an imminent 3,500 Covid-19 Omicron cases per day at its peak, would be apocalyptic for almost every aspect of life in Barbados for the next several years. Its political and social consequences would be enormous.


    I think the UWI is out to lunch.

    If Western Australia is largely unaffected while the states on the east coast of Australia which suffered bad flooding are being hammered by ohmigod it is safe to say that ohmigod is not at all contagious on its own but the method by which it spreads (water) is the key.

    I suspect we will be cool, barring floods.

    Whoever gets in may be able to claim they fixed COVID!!

    If it is Ms. Mockley et al she will claim it was her policies that did it.


  • The UWI like all the “experts” are blinkered when it comes to considering how the virus spreads and is vectored into households.

    More Niall Fergussons in the making.

    They may be able to process numbers but they have not got a clue the mechanics by which they are produced.


  • @Lyall

    It is the biggest question in town.


  • More test kits coming

    By Barry Alleyne
    With the Omicron variant of COVID-19 set to bear down on Barbados, the country’s special lab responsible for testing has on order three sets of additional test kits, expected to be here by monthend.
    They will be added to more than 150 000 tests which are already on island.
    Director of the Bestdos Santos Public Health Laboratory, The Most Honourable Dr Songee Beckles, told the Weekend Nation that with the expected surge of Omicron worldwide, plans have been put in place to ensure Barbados has enough tests for the next few months.
    Based on current projections, Barbados could be conducting around 2 000 or more PCR tests for COVID-19 on a daily basis over the next five weeks, when Omicron is forecast to be at its peak.
    “We have enough reagents to do more than 150 000 tests with more reagents still on order. We will continue to monitor the demand for testing to ensure we can respond appropriately, but bearing in mind that there are high global demands which can affect the supply chain,” Beckles said.
    She added the first order of new reagents could be here within a few days. “We expect some reagents this week or early next week, and more in mid-January. Other reagents are also on order but I am awaiting an estimated time of arrival.”
    Beckles said she did not know how long the 150 000 tests here would last.
    “It is hard to determine that at this time. We have to monitor trends of testing for the next week or two to get a better gauge,” she noted. The doctor said Barbadians should not worry about the recent news coming out of the United States, where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had warned against international labs using a specific type of PCR test to determine the presence of the COVID-19 virus. The CDC advised that after December 31, it would withdraw requests from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of the US for emergency use authorisation of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, which had been introduced in February 2020.
    The US entity determined that such testing could not differentiate between the presence of the SARS which causes COVID-19,
    or the influenza virus. It warned clinical labs to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDAauthorised alternatives to the 2019-nCoV panel going forward. “We do not and have never used the CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus kit for COVID-19 testing at the Best-dos Santos Public Health Lab. We use Roche LightMix SabeccoV reagents from Roche Diagnostics,” said Beckles, a specialist in molecular microbiology and immunology.
    The CDC had also recommended that clinical laboratories and testing sites which had been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay, to select and begin their transition to another FDAauthorised COVID-19 test. It also encouraged laboratories to consider adopting a multiplexed method that could easily facilitate the detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.

    Source: Nation


  • Guyana looking at home testing
    GEORGETOWN – Government is exploring the possibility of home testing for COVID-19 as cases in Guyana continue to surge, with 788 positive cases recorded in 24 hours, President Irfaan Ali said on Wednesday.
    “Yesterday, we saw a large number turning up to be tested. In many developed jurisdictions now, they are not giving everyone the test as part of their management protocol, and they are encouraging home tests now, the use of home kits as part of their response agenda, and this is something we have to look at also,” Ali said at a press conference.
    He said the costs associated with procurement and supply are being explored.
    “There are still issues in the supply chain to see our local capacity and that is what we are analysing now in terms of the home testing, but it is definitely something that is being discussed because we know, based on what we are reading and what is happening, that the need for testing would increase,” Ali said.
    “Naturally, people are going to become concerned with the slightest of symptoms and they are going to want to be tested so that would increase.”
    According to the United States’ Centres for Disease Control, self-tests detect current COVID-19 infections, not antibodies to the virus, and are used as
    a risk reduction measure.
    A positive self-test result means that the test detected the virus, and you are very likely to have an infection, while a negative self-test result means that the test did not detect the virus and you may not have an infection. However, the results will not be completely accurate. Repeating the test within a few days, with at least 24 hours between tests, will increase the confidence that you are not infected.

    Source: Nation


  • DavidJanuary 7, 2022 4:31 AM

    More test kits coming

    By Barry Alleyne
    With the Omicron variant of COVID-19 set to bear down on Barbados, the country’s special lab responsible for testing has on order three sets of additional test kits, expected to be here by monthend.


    By month end, cases may have fallen to double digits …. barring floods!!

    The cases in the young who spreed over Christmas and New ears will have resolved.

    I sitting down hey cracking up.

    Write down the numbers of under 18’s who tested positive by day and you will see what is happening.


  • Here’s my theory and the predictions it would support for the next week.

    Under 18/over 18

    24th Dec 5/42
    25th Dec 3/41
    26th Dec 6/45
    27th Dec 14/98
    28th Dec 38/189
    29th Dec 38/209
    30th Dec 48/207
    31st Dec 41/204
    1st Jan 20/130
    2nd Jan 23/177
    3rd Jan 91/447
    4th Jan 71/408
    5th Jan 65/355

    6th should be 40’s/200’s
    7th should be 20’s/100’s
    8th should be 10’s/100’s
    9th should be 10’s/10’s

    A week today is the 14th Jan … by then we should be back in double digits if the spike is due to young people celebrating first over Christmas and then Old Year’s night.

    The transmission will have been airborne so the dosage will be small and the infections not serious.

    We can live with the spike for the next week.

    I reckon that’s why for the whole of 2020, we had only 7 deaths.

    Once it got into the water supply for the Southern Corridor after the floods, the dosage of the virus was huge for those unfortunate to collide with it and the result was the next 256 deaths.

    Ohmigod I suspect will not be terribly contagious here, as in Western Australia …………. Barring floods!!

    Vaccinations are useless in stopping the spread if infection is via the water supply.

    So, like all over the world, we got to come to terms with fixing our water supply.

    In the short term I believe we will be fine.

    How we count imported cases will be important.


  • John; Bring the missing objective, rational and scientific data that supports your overall thesis. You do have some good points though, like speculating that there is a major factor that controls how waves behave at the local level. I think that this is likely true but that it is very unlikely to be floods or drying out of flood waters.


  • lyallsmallJanuary 7, 2022 9:04 AM

    John; Bring the missing objective, rational and scientific data that supports your overall thesis. You do have some good points though, like speculating that there is a major factor that controls how waves behave at the local level. I think that this is likely true but that it is very unlikely to be floods or drying out of flood waters.


    We’ll see how the numbers pan out.

    Reality supersedes scientific theory.

    We don’t have too long to wait, at most a week.


  • Apples were falling to the ground long before Isaac Newton noticed them.

    They didn’t need him to continue falling or for people to know they would continue to fall!!

    Newton was able to predict how long they would take to hit the ground.

    All that is needed here is the ability to predict what the virus will do from observing its past behaviour!!


  • Scientists are looking at the apple and missing the gravity!!


  • Newton did not care how big or how sweet the apple was or how many molecules of what compound it contained..

    The attributes of the apple were irrelevant.

    Same for my approach.

    The attributes of the virus is irrelevant.


  • The attributes of the virus is irrelevant.

    … is should be are


    The attributes of the virus are irrelevant.

    I am only interested in how it is moved from host to host!!

    It certainly does not move itself, I am only interested in what moves it.


  • Cases for 6th January have fallen again, down to 407.

    My estimate is a bit low but we’ll see what the cases look like next Friday and if we are down to double digits.

    Under 18 cases fell again, 58 down from 65.

    Today is the first day for a while I saw a line at the testing tent by Sky Mall.

    Either cases are on the way up or the tracing has required more people to go and get tested.

    Still figure cases should be in double digits by next Friday.


  • 407 positives out of 1949 tests for January 6, 2022. 1 death, a 70 year old unvaccinated man.

    143,919 people are fully vaccinated, that is 63% of the population which is 12 or older.

    The previous number of fully vaccinated people was 143,867 which means only 52 more vaccines were given on the 6th than on the previous day, which means vaccine uptake is really, really, really slow considering that 5 vaccine clinics were open on January 4th, 3 clinics on January 5th; 5 clinics on January 6th; and 6 today.


  • 420 positive COVID-19 cases from the 1 978 tests conducted on Wednesday, January 5.

    407 new COVID-19 cases identified on Thursday, January 6, from the 1,949 tests

    No real difference.


  • Pingback: BU Covid Dash – Omicron January 19 | Barbados Underground

  • Attached are charts for week ending 7th January 2022. So far, the daily cases have not topped 500 and have indeed been dropping v. slowly for the past 4 days. The charts suggest that Omicron has been here for nearly a month but the rate of increasing daily cases has dropped. Deaths and isolations have increased, but only marginally. Vaccinations uptake is still very slow – Source: Lyall Small


  • Hants

    What you should look at is the >10% fall in under 18’s, from 65 to 58.

    In late December this was a single digit number.

    The under 18’s and the youngsters I suggest have been the driver in the spike which my logic has collapsing.

    Western Australia says it all.

    Western Australia
    Total cases 82
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)

    Compare with
    New South Wales
    Total cases 262,476
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)

    Or Compare with
    Total cases 54,700
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)

    Or with
    Total cases 120,759
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)

    Or with
    South Australia
    Total cases 29,294
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)

    Big picture
    Total cases 410,685
    (December 24, 2021 – January 6, 2022)


  • So Western Australia, about half of the continent of Australia has 82 cases while the whole continent has 410,685 for the same period.

    Western Australia has a population of 2.7 million.

    Australia has a population of 25.9 million.

    About 10% of the population has 0.02% and the only thing that clearly is different is it has had no floods..

    Can’t get much clearer than that.

    Ohmigod is not contagious in WA but contagious in the rest of the Continent.

    The conclusion is ohmigod is not contagious at all but is driven by another factor … floods!!


  • In the absence of flooding, Barbados should return quickly to its pre Christmas levels of COVID cases.

    The cases should not rise as per UWI, BAMP and other negative thinkers.

    We will know in a week or so, even if there are floods because floods usually take 3-5 weeks to have an effect.

    In the meantime, have a little faith!!


  • Here is an example of a perfectly good scientist with his attention firmly focused on the Apple and not how it is moved from host to host.

    The result is he has given up and exudes real negative waves.


  • Famous movie line … “have a little faith baby”


  • Half of Australia going through hell with floods and COVID.

    The other half has no problem!!

    Talk about obvious!!

    We are in good shape.

    Canada, the UK, Europe, Israel etc going through hell.

    Pakistan and Malaysia etc soon to follow.


  • he Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 495 new COVID-19 cases – 225 males and 270 females – on Friday, January 7, from the 2 475 tests conducted.


  • HantsJanuary 8, 2022 6:48 PM

    he Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 495 new COVID-19 cases – 225 males and 270 females – on Friday, January 7, from the 2 475 tests conducted.


    The 2,475 tests seems to be a bit on the high side.

    Are we watching positivity further expose a falling incidence of ohmigod, consistent with what I have written?

    “The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 150 new cases (71 males and 79 females) of COVID-19, from the 892 tests conducted on Saturday, January 1.”

    We are about where we were on 1st January 2022

    .”The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 47 new COVID-19 cases (23 males and 24 females), from the 800 tests carried out on Friday, December 24″

    Still high prior to the Christmas spree but essentially falling rapidly.

    If we wanted to compare apples with apples, we would divide the 495 positives by 3.

    We’ll be in double digits pretty soon.


  • John;
    So everyime a Covid number is published that is inconsistent with your vapourings we should divide by 3? Why?


  • I thought you understood positivity!!

    Obviously you don’t.

    The GOB could find the 3,500 cases/day UWI predicts as the worse case scenario but it would have to do instead of 2495 cases, something like 9 times the number of tests.


  • So if the GOB did around 25,000 tests per day it could get the 3,500 specified by UWI.


    In a few days time it might have to be doing up to 50,000 tests to maintain the 3,500 cases per day because the incidence of COVID is falling in the population.

    Child’s play!!


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