COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

3,374 comments

  • Canada and UK going to hell together in a handbasket, cases rising exponentially.

    Floods in BC Nov 14 to Dev 17

    UK??

    Non – stop from October …. like what happened to Brazil.

    So cases rising.

    Difficult to fault the logic its related to floods.

    In fact as GP might say, irrefutable!!!

    If you got eyes to see and ears to hear see and listen!!

    I’ll post what the two countries look like together so you can see cases taking off together.

    Like

  • John;
    You still haven’t explained the pathway by which the virus gets to infect the large number of people who become infected in a spike, given that in a small country like Barbados flood waters normally dissipate and disappear after a few hours and occur in a few districts only. Soil drying out is an improvement on the thesis but it still does’nt quite cut it. How does the virus get into enough susceptible people’s noses and mouths to give rise to and maintain a surge from the relatively small numbers of virus particles that might be in flood waters? Could there be another currently unidentified major factor that provides or enhances one or more existing pathways and which results in short or long disease surges?

    Consider the recent Grenada surge which lasted for significantly less time than our current surge but which peaked higher than ours did and was leading ours in deaths during their outbreak. How long did the flooding that you associate with its causation last? What was the effect of the earlier Carnival on the outbreak, especially since a significant number of people did not follow the protocols? Did Grenada’s topography lead to a quicker drying out of the soil? What were the representative surface areas that were flooded? Yuh certain that the putative virus particles generated could remain viable for any significant period of time? Could sunlight hours be a factor? Could temperature be a factor? Could there be intrinsic host immunity factors such as the one Dr GP suggested for the South Africa situation? Could host age be a factor? Are there different co-morbidity factors here and there that could influence the rise and fall of the two surges? How about Adherence to the protocols? How about treatment regimes? etc. etc. etc.

    Like

  • Eighty-one people – 41 males and 40 females – tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) on Tuesday, December 21, from the 1 156 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/22/81-new-virus-cases/

    Like

  • lyallsmallDecember 22, 2021 4:58 PM

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Simple Lyall.

    Positive feedback.

    Lets agree the desal plant is the issue.

    Let’s agree with the MOH that most of the cases are in the Southern Corridor which will include the catchment area around the desal plant.

    The floods as we see them happen for a short time above ground but only because the ground below is saturated.

    Once the flood waters subside the ground is still saturated.

    This water makes its way to the sea by what ever means necessary.

    It takes time to hit the desal plant intake but once it does the infections begin.

    Remember, the host sheds the virus a week before symptoms appear through their bowels.

    This gets into the ground which is slowly drying out and makes its way to the input of the desal plant.

    More infections follow.

    Positive feedback.

    The cycle is broken only when the path from the ground to the intake of the sewage plant becomes too dry for the wastewater/sewage to get to the intake of the desal plant in a time which exceeds the survival time of the virus in wastewater/sewage which can be as much as 35 days, 7 weeks.

    The infections tail off as less and less of the virus reaches the desal plant.

    Grenada as you point out is a different mechanism and that’s why the characteristic curve peaked higher and lasted shorter than Barbados.

    Take a look at Dominica!!

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  • The Belle, Hampton, Newmarket and Codrington all have Zone 1 protection.

    That means that for 80% of our water it takes 2-300 days for water outside of the zone to reach the intakes.

    The virus can’t survive that long.

    So 80% of our water is protected absolutely from the virus.

    That’s why our peaks of new cases are so small less than 20 % is all that may be impacted.

    That’s how I know it has to be the desal plant.

    The solution is real simple, lock off the desal plant after a flood for 2 months and let the virus become impotent in the water.

    The only way we can eradicate it here is if other countries find solutions to dealing with their water supplies.

    But even if it comes in airborne, once we have the protocols in place to deal with our water the numbers will be small.

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  • Sewering the area around the desal plant would be a top priority for the GOB if it does not want to lock off the desal plant.

    Proper wastewater disposal would then be a priority and for God’s sake, do a better job than was done with the South Coast Sewerage Project.

    Can you imagine if we still had sewerage floating around on the South Coast?!!

    Like

  • Every country is different because every country has a different geology or geography.

    Each curve is characteristic to the country which produces it.

    Like

  • It is a puzzle but I love puzzles.

    Like

  • I’ll show you another nice one too!!

    In London, there is an area where fewer than 5% of the population have had COVID and 32.5% are not vaccinated.

    My explanation would be the water is not contaminated!!

    So people who decided not to be vaccinated are cool, and those who did get vaccinated, well, they are just a number.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/i-don-t-need-the-covid-vaccine-god-protects-me-from-the-virus/ar-AAS4s3s?ocid=winp1taskbar

    Find out where it gets its water from and Bob’s your uncle!!

    Like

  • It is just a 30-second walk from Acre Lane in Brixton – newly revealed as having Britain’s highest rate of coronavirus infection.

    A remarkable 5 per cent of residents have the virus. And the high level is partly explained by the 32.4 per cent of locals who remain unvaccinated, unmoved in the face of public entreaties.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Now are you understanding how it works?

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  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @LyallS, you asked ‘AquaJohn’ several questions and as you know the Dr. GP says I can’t understand this high level science stuff.

    So I asked my bright relative who is an A student (3.9 gpa) and starting college to study engineering related work to read your queries and the responses … but she asked me more questions … so do explain (or AquaJohn):

    Why would a desal plant with its elaborate salt/impurities removal mechanisms and further complex filtration/purification methods be a big source of a coronavirus in our drinking water system???

    I suggested to her that it made no sense to me that such would be the case and surmised that the various processes at the plant would at minimum weaken the corona particles significantly even if purification didn’t kill it.

    I also suggested to her that any such plant would have detailed final testing standards to ensure the water was healthy.

    So help me and her understand how your detailed queries could be funneled into that single answer from your fellow scientist, just so.

    Or is this one elaborate joke on his part!

    Like

  • The answer is even simpler and I gave it already but it must have flown over your head as GP often remarks.

    No water treatment plant removes all impurities from water but the output must meet AT LEAST the SDWA levels or those imposed by WHO.

    Ask your student what level of viruses is acceptable for a water treatment plant to remove!!

    ELABORATE DOES NOT MEAN PERFECT!!!

    Doesn’t get much soimpler!!

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  • GP sure is a good judge of aptitude!!

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  • OK John
    OK!; Let us agree, for the sake of the discussion only, that the Desal Plant is the Issue.

    If so, it should be fairly easy to get the relevant Government agencies to treat the matter with the urgency it deserves and either facilitate or do the tests that are absolutely essential to prove or disprove your thesis in a professional, scientific and confidential manner. I think that a comprehensive study could be developed and implemented in less than a month. That study could clear up all the issues you have raised re. water and the Covid-19 surges over the last year or so.

    Why yuh do’n talk wid some of your former associates at UWI?
    Why yuh do’n talk wid Busy Williams and wid de current principals of the Desal Plant?
    Why yuh do’n talk wid de Government’s Chief Technical Officers responsible for Water, Covid-19 testing; etc?

    Of course, If you are correct and the new information resulting from the above approach leads to your thesis being comprehensively found to be essentially correct, then You would have made a very substantial contribution to solving a problem of worldwide importance. You are obviously committed to your hypothesis. That committment seems to me to be deserving of your going the extra mile to prove it.

    Like

  • dPD;

    I didn’t read your query above before I posted my last one. Have to do some chores now but will get back to you soon.

    Like

  • Lyall

    I’ve been to de head.

    How you know dey didn’t lock off de cock?

    Like

  • Now, London and Acre Lane

    Where is Hal Austin when you need him?

    Anyway, I’ll use Google Earth.

    So, we know that Muslim males die at a rate 2-3 times that of Christians and Atheists.

    So, if we were to query Google Earth for Mosques near to Acre Lane and compare it with the location of the Universal Pentecostal Church, what do you think we should get?

    Like

  • Turn round and wander back towards Brixton, with its railway and Tube station and the Ritzy cinema, and you come to Acre Lane’s Universal Pentecostal Church.

    Most of its worshippers are of African or West Indian descent, reflecting a large portion of Brixton’s population since the Windrush Generation started arriving more than 70 years ago.

    Its pastor, who declines to give his name, insists he does not share such conspiracy theories, and assures the Daily Mail he does not tell his parishioners whether to have the jab or not.

    Yet despite being 80 – so in a high-risk age group – he has not been vaccinated, let alone had the booster offered just across the road. The reason? He trusts in God to keep him safe. The senior Pentecostal churchman said yesterday: ‘We don’t tell people what to do – we let them choose.

    ‘But we also pray for people, and we tell them to keep out of sinful ways. God tells us in the bible “Let them trust me and I will preserve them”.

    ‘We believe God has the power to protect us.

    ‘There’s no need for me to have the vaccine. And people are getting the virus after the vaccine – people have died also.

    ‘I live my life by the word of God. So far it’s protected me from the virus.’

    Believing that prayer and faith can keep you safe from the virus is clearly not much of an encouragement to get vaccinated.

    Like

  • The area around the Universal Pentecostal Church may be fed from a different water source!!

    That may be simple pragmatic explanation.

    If you live in an area where many of your neighbours are coming down with COVID you are going to do exactly as you are told.

    If you live in an area where few if any of your neighbours are coming down with COVID, you feel kind of special even if you don’t know precisely why!!

    Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition.

    Like

  • These three countries are worth a watch.

    All are heading up at the same time … floods.

    Each of the three will reach a maximum and then fall once there are no more floods .

    The time to recover may be different for all three and the peaks as well but each of them will have a characteristic curve.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @LyallS… I’ll await your update …

    @John, I am more lost than evrr … so indeed the doc was ‘aptitudnally’ correct re my comprehension.

    What does it mean that “No water treatment plant removes all impurities from water but the output must meet AT LEAST the SDWA levels or those imposed by WHO.”

    Aren’t those standards required to meet ACCEPTABLE health requirements… period.

    According to you this virus is completely going undetected (or untested) despite the SIMPLE fact that the ‘putative virus particles generated’ (learned those words from @LyallS) are known risks that would NOT be accepted for potable water and are not likely to “remain viable for any significant period of time” (again taken from your fellow scientist) as they go through the treatment process at the plant!

    You are turning everything understood about water treatment on its head to establish your thesis.

    Your fellow doc friend … does state that we cannot disprove your thesis but the converse is that you ABSOLUTELY cannot disprove the argument that you are talking hoocum nonsense with no merit, either.

    You were the lecturer so please tell my relative student … why there would be any acceptable level of coronovirus particles for a water treatment plant NOT to remove and make people sick!!

    SMH!

    Like

  • The authorities that promulgate Drinking Water Standards have never dealt with a virus like COVID.

    So there is no body of knowledge available so no limit on how much is allowable.

    If it turns out ZERO is the only acceptable level then we simply won’t get any water form treatment plants.!!

    Not really, they will just have to figure out how to get to ZERO!!

    One way might be to replicate the Zoning that exists in Barbados and ensure a very long time of travel to the extraction point.

    Like

  • How about dousing water supplies with Clorox and spotting a constant UV beam? That should do it.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Baby Steps, ok!!!

    SDWA = Safe Drinking Water Act

    Here’s how the authorities (EPA) determine which contaminants are regulated.

    https://www.epa.gov/sdwa/how-epa-regulates-drinking-water-contaminants

    Here is the timeline over which the EPA developed regulations for the 90 contaminants it regulates … back in 2015.

    Click to access dw_regulation_timeline.pdf

    “Turbidity is a measure of cloudiness in water that indicates the presence of disease-causing microbes. Higher turbidity levels are often associated with higher levels of disease-causing microorganisms such as viruses, parasites and some bacteria”

    Like

  • Interestingly, Bowmanston has been routinely shutdown almost every wet season because after heavy rainfall turbidity is seen in the water.

    ie, what’s on the ground ends up 257 feet below ground in the underground stream passing through the cave.

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  • OOPS, 269 feet, been almost 30 years since I went down in the bucket.

    Tempus fugit.

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  • Some of the catchment area around the desal plant is 40 feet above sea level.

    Sheet water is thus a mere 40 feet below households and that is the source of the brackish water!!

    Like

  • DavidDecember 23, 2021 2:47 AM

    West Indies-England matches will require fans to be fully vaccinated | The Cricketer

    https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/international/fans_will_need_to_be_fully_vaccinated_to_get_into_west_indies-england_matches.html

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So who is going to go and watch WI play England?

    More likely the Brits will be there in force to watch their guys nail us once again.

    Only way they are getting to Barbados and that is if they are vaccinated.

    The days of the WI fielding world class players who are world beaters are long gone.

    Would be great to be wrong and yes, I will keep an eye on the scores on Cricinfo.

    Like

  • Critical Analyzer

    It looks like Omicron is the variant to overtake Delta end the pandemic, getting us to herd immunity. Let’s see how long it will take the fearmonger public health officials to acknowledge this.

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  • @CA

    Do we know enough about the wane factor?

    Like

  • John; You said above Lyall; I’ve been to de head. How you know dey didn’t lock off de cock?,

    Two very interesting statements!

    Taken at face value you’ve discussed the issue with the top person at the Desal plant and you expect that action would have been taken, perhaps even to the extent of temporary shutting down the plant.

    My understanding is that the desal plant serves the area where I live through the feed to Millenium heights so I would have expected that there would have been some official announcement of the shutdown or at least some observable effect such as a significant uptick in water outages if it had been shut down. There were no outages that I’m aware of outside the normal ones. So the Desal plant probably was not shut down.

    If you spoke to the head and there was no resultant shutdown and no Covid-19 cases following or during the floods in an area served directly by Desal water, then it seems quite likely that the Desal plant head thought that there was no merit in your hypothesis. QED!

    Like

  • I would like to commission a poll on John’s 🐇/🐰 theory using a water scale
    Drinking water🚰
    Rain water🌧️
    Flood water
    Waster water
    Sewage

    Like

  • lyallsmallDecember 23, 2021 10:41 AM

    My understanding is that the desal plant serves the area where I live through the feed to Millenium heights so I would have expected that there would have been some official announcement of the shutdown or at least some observable effect such as a significant uptick in water outages if it had been shut down. There were no outages that I’m aware of outside the normal ones. So the Desal plant probably was not shut down.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You don’t understand how it works.

    You are fed from multiple sources including if your understanding is right the desal plant.

    You need to get to the reservoir that feeds where you live and find out how many sources supply that reservoir and in what proportion.

    That’s why we have such relatively low COVID numbers.

    I’ll see if I can dig up the spreadsheet from the 1978 Water Resources Study and show you how it was done back then.

    Once you see the numbers it should become clearer to you.

    It is quite possible to keep the reservoir levels good enough to feed you with one of the sources out of action …. once it isn’t Belle!!

    Like

  • These were the projections for 1985 to 2000 for supplying the then (1978) 16 distribution areas in Barbados.

    Porters had not been used and had 2 million gallons per day available and it was projected to come into service to supply the demand.

    The then BLP blew that by allocating it to Golf at Westmoreland.

    I am hearing that Trents pumping station is out as well and I would expect so because the pod that was made at Farmers to supply Apes Hill will remove the only area in the Trents catchment that actually produces water in the dry season.

    By doing so the design yield of the pump at Trents is automatically screwed up and it can only draw salt water in the dry season.

    Other reservoirs have been built since then and the desal plant added but we really screwed ourselves where water is concerned by the golf giveaways.

    Like

  • TheOGazertsDecember 23, 2021 10:53 AM

    I would like to commission a poll on John’s 🐇/🐰 theory using a water scale
    Drinking water🚰
    Rain water🌧️
    Flood water
    Waster water
    Sewage

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You better find someones who actually are able to understand what John is talking about.

    You don’t seem to realise that Rain Water is vastly superior in quality to Drinking Water and Drinking Water in Barbados is actually treated Ground Water which is made up among other things of Floodwater, Wastewater and Sewage.

    Like

  • Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59769969

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  • Was going for the joke but “Drinking Water in Barbados is actually treated Ground Water which is made up among other things of Floodwater, Wastewater and Sewage” is the point that has been made several times.

    Drinking water is quite different from wastewater, flood water or waste.

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  • Up again

    ” The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory recorded 97 new coronavirus (COVID-19 cases) – 46 males and 51 females – on Wednesday, December 22, from the 1 082 tests conducted.”

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/23/97-new-virus-cases/

    Like

  • So wha happen to de heard immunity theory I herd about ?

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  • HantsDecember 23, 2021 9:17 PM

    So wha happen to de heard immunity theory I herd about ?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Only works in text book theoretical epidemics/pandemics.

    De Water pelts all de theories out de windows which is what we should do wiff de experts.

    BC rising, I reckon it will probably overtake Ontario soon.

    Israel showing signs of rising too.

    Like

  • TheOGazertsDecember 23, 2021 1:56 PM

    Was going for the joke but “Drinking Water in Barbados is actually treated Ground Water which is made up among other things of Floodwater, Wastewater and Sewage” is the point that has been made several times.

    Drinking water is quite different from wastewater, flood water or waste.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It’s also quite different from sea water but it comes from the sea!!

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  • … you knew dat … right?

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  • Florida cases rising again.

    That means about a month ago there were floods in Florida!!

    Here are the numbers.

    … and here are the floods.

    https://www.clickorlando.com/video/news/2021/11/06/friday-flooding-across-central-florida/

    This getting real easy!!

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  • … like falling off a log.

    Peak in Florida cases expected mid February so a problem for the next 3- 4 months as usual!!

    https://www.local10.com/news/florida/2021/12/22/florida-covid-surge-expected-to-peak-in-february-study-says/

    Like

  • BC will break its own records later on today once again!!!

    I can guarantee you that unless they do something imaginative with the numbers like not reporting them!!

    You just need to think back 4 weeks or so to what floods happened in your neck of the woods.

    Can’t have been very significant as it would be easy to see online.

    Which suggests it was on a small scale but obviously hitting Ontario where it hurts most.

    Like

  • Ontario’s population is a bit over 3 times that of BC.

    So over the same period you would expect if they started together to see a 3 to 4 X difference in cases.

    11K vs 39K.

    But clearly BC’s flooding was more extensive to the gap should close as time goes on.

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  • Given the scale of the flooding in BC it is possible BC could peak higher than Ontario.

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  • A total of 96 people – 45 females and 51 males – were identified as COVID-19 positive on Thursday, December 23, from among the 1,059 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/category/local-news/

    Like

  • 47 new COVID-19 cases from the 800 tests carried out on Friday, December 24

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/25/47-new-covid-cases-christmas-eve/

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  • Hants

    There are two major sources, first airborne spread and second visitors who test positive.

    Not much waterborne spread as the ground is drying out.

    Heard there were 40 cases on a cruise ship at the family lunch so you expect to see double digit numbers which fluctuate alot.

    Canada has a huge problem with waterborne spread.

    Quebec and Ontario ramping up and BC kicking in big time.

    As the number of tests rise, positivity becomes a better metric as a predictor of things to come.

    Not looking good at all up your side.

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  • For the moment, things good down this side, barring floods we should not see any major surges.

    We should be able to welcome tourists with adequate precautions in place.

    As we approach the new year one would expect no floods for a while but we are in a La Nina session so it would be reckless to predict no floods.

    Back in 1951 February had a week or so of floods.

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  • Here’s what Barbados looks like compared with Grenada.

    If I had to guess why Grenada is levelling out lower than we are I would say perhaps Grenada is not letting in the number of tourists that we are and only has airborne spread.

    If that were so it would show you how small airborne spread is, atleast in Grenada and indicate how much hot air was wasted on following protocols that were never going to address the real issues.

    Like

  • Pingback: BU Covid Dash – Is Omicron Here? | Barbados Underground

  • David; Attached are the charts for the week ending 24th December 2021. The cases and positivity charts are showing slight upticks, perhaps presaging a possible Omicron upsurge in the coming weeks. The vaccination charts are continuing to show the slow growth in vaccine uptake. The Worldometer charts show a declining trend in deaths. Reports on Omicron suggest that it aggressively outcompetes the other existing variants and that its effects are relatively mild thereby offering a small ray of hope for the future containment of the epidemic- Source: Lyall Small (See BU Covid 19 Updates page)

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  • https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/26/48-covid-cases-explorer-seas-docks/

    “If you look at a ship now, most of these ships have sophisticated isolation facilities – ICU beds, ventilator capacity, a full onboard medical team and they have the capacity to treat any persons onboard a ship that don’t necessarily need urgent care and even in those instances they may have that capacity.

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  • Grenada has vaccinated 34% only.

    I suspect it is open and moving forward.

    It’s cases are minimal, unlike ours with the vaccination drive and standard lot a long talk.

    Check Dominica which appears to be in lockdown below.

    Schools, workplaces, borders and stay at home required with some exceptions.

    https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/dominica/

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  • So how does Dominica compare with Grenada?

    All over the place and can’t seem to return to its earlier condition as Grenada has.

    Government regulations seem to be making it worse off.

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  • My guess is Dominica getting nuff false positives.

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  • Fifty-one people – 27 females and 24 males – were diagnosed with COVID-19 on Sunday, December 26, from the 542 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/27/51-new-covid-cases/

    Like

  • Omicron could ‘lessen risk’ of catching Delta
    CAPE TOWN– Research by South African scientists suggests that Omicron could displace the Delta variant of the coronavirus because infection with the new variant boosts immunity to the older one.
    The study only covered a small group of people and has not been peer-reviewed, but it found that people who were infected with Omicron, especially those who were vaccinated, developed enhanced immunity to the Delta variant.
    The analysis enrolled 33 vaccinated and unvaccinated people who were infected with the Omicron variant in South Africa.
    While the authors found that neutralisation of Omicron increased 14-fold over 14 days after the enrolment, they also found that there was a 4.4-fold increase in neutralisation of the Delta variant.
    “The increase in Delta variant neutralisation in individuals infected with Omicron may result in decreased ability of Delta to re-infect those individuals,” the scientists who conducted the study said. The results of the study are “consistent with Omicron displacing the Delta variant, since it can elicit immunity which neutralises Delta making re-infection with Delta less likely,” they said.
    According to the scientists, implications of this displacement would depend on whether
    or not Omicron is less pathogenic compared to Delta. “If so, then the incidence of COVID-19 severe disease would be reduced and the infection may shift to become less disruptive to individuals and society.”
    Alex Sigal, a professor at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa, said on Twitter on Monday that if Omicron was less pathogenic as it looked to be from the South African experience, “this will help push Delta out”.
    According to an earlier South African study, there is reduced risk of hospitalisation and severe disease in people infected with Omicron compared with the Delta variant, though the authors say some of that is likely due to high population immunity. (Reuters)

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  • It is being reported that local doctor Adrian Lorde is attributing the increase in Covid 19 infections here to the presence of Omicron.

    Like

  • The number of covid cases on the increase.

    Barbados records a sharp increase of COVID-19 cases, 227 new cases recorded:

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/12/29/barbados-records-a-sharp-increase-of-covid-19-cases-227-new-cases-recorded/

    Like

  • Yes David; Bad news! The silver lining may be the new Omicron variant which hasn’t been reported here yet.

    Many mainstream professional commentators are beginning to realise that Omicron actually and statistically is causing less adverse reactions than the Delta variant that it is rapidly replacing in all the reporting countries.

    In any case we look almost certainly to be at the beginning of a very rough ride.

    Suggest that we follow daily numbers of persons in official and home isolation, number of deaths, vaccination uptake and daily case incidence to get some idea of how the new phase progresses. Extrapolation from those numbers should give us some rough idea of when Omicron gets here (If it isn’t already here) and how it might be contributing to any noticeable deleterious consequences or good outcomes of the variant.

    Liked by 1 person

  • You got to look at the data graphically to realise that the behaviour in cases is uncommon when compared with other countries.

    It may just be a blip.

    Yesterday, I heard there were 40 cases on a ship.

    Maybe the cases will level out with rapid swings up and down or it is just a matter of the data gatherers getting figures up to date.

    Closest country I have seen to that rapid increase and decrease is Dominica.

    The trend is down but with fluctuations.

    My first impression was there were false positives in Dominica but not sure about that at the moment.

    Got a friend who is going to Dominica so will hopefully get info first hand.

    Like

  • 3rd dose, Got a booster shot of Moderna at 7 pm .

    Like

  • HantsDecember 29, 2021 10:55 PM

    3rd dose, Got a booster shot of Moderna at 7 pm .

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Still a verger!!

    Like

  • Surprise surprise

    Omicron is here: CMO
    Article by Sandy Deane
    Published on
    December 30, 2021
    The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is in Barbados, Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George has confirmed.
    He told journalists moments ago: “We have had confirmation of Omicron by the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) Laboratory. A single case and to date that is the only confirmed case we have.“However, I must couch that by saying that we have been doing testing, preliminary sequencing at the Best-Dos Santos Laboratory, and there is also preliminary evidence is Omicron is established in Barbados.”

    The CMO stressed there was no need to panic, noting that the country has already dealt with variants including the Delta

    The Ministry of Health has also sent “carefully selected samples” to the CARPHA lab and the results are expected in seven to ten days.

    “Once we have this information we will share it with the public,” Dr George said.
    The outbreak of the highly contagious Omicron variant has led to an explosion of infections in each country the variant has reached since it was first identified by South African researchers.
    Global health authorities have stressed that they don’t fully know how easily omicron spreads, how severe the illness it causes, or how well vaccines and drug treatments work against it.
    According to early data from the UK, infections caused by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus do not appear to be less severe than infections from Delta which has led to a surge of illness and death since August.

    Source: Barbados Today

    Like

  • @ David,

    old years night when de liquor kick in social distance dropping to zero. lol

    Like

  • @Hants

    People planning to enjoy themselves Covid or no.

    Like

  • Just observe my water protocols and that will cut your risk by 90%.

    The 10% you can live with and once you hug a non covid shedding body, that 10% reduces to 0%!!

    Like

  • George: new talks on school resumption needed

    It’s back to the drawing board to find a proper roadmap towards the resumption of face-toface classes in Barbados.
    This is due to highly infectious Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus.
    Chief Medical Officer, The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George said yesterday public health officials and the Ministry of Education had been meeting regularly to find common ground on how to get students back in school next year, but the presence of the Omicron variant had changed that.
    “We have been talking, but we will have to go back to the drawing board on how we will do that,” the public health specialist said in response to a question from the media during a nationally televised event.
    George had moments before revealed that a first case of Omicron had been discovered in Barbados and more testing of samples would be required to determine how prevalent the variant was in Barbadian communities.
    He said that previous dialogue between the ministries
    of health and education had looked at the establishment of protocols and guidelines for the resumption of school in a COVID-19 environment, but that discussion had centred around the Delta variant, which had led to a third wave of COVID-19 cases in the country.
    George said that since the Omicron variant was more highly transmissible, they would have to review everything in the coming days in relation to the resumption of school. (BA)


    Source: Nation

    Like

  • It isn’t going well in BC.

    Cases are off the chart.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-daily-covid-19-record-shattered-by-more-than-1-400-cases-in-latest-update-1.5723552

    “The record for most COVID-19 cases reported in a single day was shattered Thursday, when the province reported a number 1,439 cases higher than ever seen before in B.C.

    The latest data reported by the Health Ministry included 4,383 cases confirmed in the latest 24-hour period – significantly higher than the record-breaking 2,944 cases recorded the day before.

    Also a record is the number of cases of the novel coronavirus considered active in B.C., at 17,357.

    Of the latest cases, the majority (2,319) were in B.C.’s most populous health authority, Fraser. Another 977 were recorded in Vancouver Coastal Health, and 501 were detected in the Interior.”

    Like

  • Of the latest cases, the majority (2,319) were in B.C.’s most populous health authority, Fraser. Another 977 were recorded in Vancouver Coastal Health, and 501 were detected in the Interior.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Here’s what the Fraser valley looked like in November.

    Pretty difficult to avoid the obvious conclusion!!

    Like

  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory recorded 255 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases – 113 males and 142 females – on Thursday, December 30, from the 1 372 tests conducted.

    Like

  • So it’s going to be around for much longer.

    Like

  • Pingback: Do they Care? | Barbados Underground

  • Thanks Hants.

    The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory recorded 255 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, 105 males and 140 females – on Friday, December 31, from the 1496 tests conducted.

    Infection rate 16.37%

    Like

  • Do we know whether the cases are in the visitor population or the local population?

    Like

  • Here’s how Singapore differentiates.

    Half their cases yesterday were imported.

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-new-cases-deaths-omicron-imported-moh-dec-31-2409121

    Like

  • The sages in the UK not seeing their predictions materialise.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/dan-hodges-apocalyptic-sage-scenario-has-failed-to-materialise/ar-AASlrbt?ocid=msedgntp

    Meanwhile people are beginning to question the award of honours to COVID “experts” before a full inquiry has been made.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/covid-advisers-should-not-have-been-given-honours-until-after-inquiry-says-ex-ons-official/ar-AASlgzF?ocid=msedgntp

    If it turns out it was in the water all along some real heavy weight experts are going to look like rubbish.

    Like

  • Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 31st December 2021. I’ve added one chart on total isolations / deaths and removed one on test positivity. As we go into the first days in 2022 the outlook is uncertain. Omicron is here, possibly for over 1 week as the major uptick started just about a week ago. Omicron will bring new management challenges and possibly opportunities. All the best for the New Year to the BU family and all Barbados as the silly season is also upon us. May we choose wisely amidst the Trump-inspired tales being told by partisans – Source: Lyall Small

    See BU Covid 19 Updates Page

    Like

  • David;

    I think the charts are already showing an early Omicron surge.

    At this stage, if Omicron were not here, we should have been around the relatively low range of around 50 positive Covid-19 cases per day, or less. This would have been the case prior to a week or so ago when we were apparently on track to control the virus through the standard practices being employed. Since then, case numbers have suddenly leapt to roughly 5 times the mid-November values and are now oscillating around the new figures for the past 5 days or so. The data seems to suggest that another major factor has entered the equation.

    That factor is likely to have been the Omicron variant. Even though it has been first identified in only a few countries less than 2 months ago, It has already replaced the virulent Delta variant as the dominant strain in Southern Africa, the US and most of Europe. It has now been shown to be the most transmissable of all the now known Covid-19 variants. However, on the positive side, most countries where it has become established have reported that its effects against humans are relatively mild as compared with Delta and other variants. One study in the UK has not corroborated that finding.

    It has now been officially acknowleged that Omicron is here. That being so, the daily case data suggests that it has been here for perhaps around 2 weeks or so.

    My prediction for the short term continuation and eventual diminution of the current surge, is that there is some likelihood that cases will get significantly higher in the short term of the next few weeks as Omicron continues, true to its now established playbook, of rapidly outcompeting existing variants. Our cases are therefore likely to increase from the current figures to significantly higher ones as Omicron finds human targets to infect mainly from but not limited to the not fully vaccinated population as well as those with comorbidities.

    The weekly, plus occasional charts where merited, might therefore be of some interest to the general public as getting a current picture of where we stand with daily positive cases, deaths and isolations should allow us to be better able to gauge the progress of the epidemic here.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Lyall

    Sadly you are probably correct although some are suggesting it may be linked to Christmas and Vat free day activities.

    Like

  • Oops! A big mistake. I wrote above in my second paragraph “Since then, case numbers have suddenly leapt to roughly 5 times the mid-November values “. That should have been Since then, case numbers have suddenly leapt to roughly 5 times the mid-December values

    Like

  • The UK in more sh!t!!

    Look for even higher rises in next month or so, maybe sooner as everything fluid up that side.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/thunderstorm-warning-as-sudden-flooding-and-lightning-strikes-to-hit-parts-of-uk/ar-AASm5Bm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

    Like

  • Canada surpasses 40,000 daily cases of COVID-19

    Ontario reports 18,445 new COVID-19 cases on New Year’s Day, a pandemic high

    https://www.aircanada.com/en-ca/flights-to-barbados

    Like

  • Hants muh boy

    You all in real trouble up that side.

    The cold weather is going to keep the virus functional for a while so your surge may last longer than the typical 3-4 months I see in some countries.

    Then there is the spring thaw again at low temperatures.

    Thing is the world is into La Nina.

    All I can tell you is boil or buy any drinking water.

    Use that water to clean your teeth and wash your face.

    Find out the areas which are supplied by ground water and not surface water and take a drive over there once a week for you bath at the YMCA.

    Keep out of swimming pools.

    Be very aware of any water you put close to your upper respiratory tract and eyes.

    You could look at UV disinfection that can be plumbed into your water pipes.

    You could also hop an Air Canada flight to Barbados, but plan on staying for months or you going back to more hell!!

    La Nina.

    I suspect our cases will start to fall, probably fluctuate depending on how many visitors we get who develop COVID.

    It is doubtful that the ohmigod strain will have much effect on the locals.

    You could have a word with your representative and ask him/her what is being done with the water supply in your area.

    If I am the next PM bout here, I will solve the COVID issues here and all over the world, that will show that Bajans can still punch above their weight!!

    Like

  • Came down by 100 … good!!!

    Means the 7 day average will also fall.

    Four days enough to say cases plateaued and falling but we still have to wait and see.

    I think we just got to play this by air.

    I don’t think we have to worry about the ohmigod.

    Ground dried out.

    Like

  • @ David,

    150 new cases from the 892 tests conducted on Saturday, January 1

    Compared to

    255 newcases on Friday, December 31, from the 1496 tests

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hants; Holidays; Fewer tests; Fewer positive results. Grenada reported 11 positive Omicron results yesterday.

    Like

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