COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

3,403 comments

  • Go ahead England, Barbados is behind you!!

    Like

  • Standard symptom of water borne illnesses …. and incidentally … COVID!!!

    Doesn’t get more obvious than this.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/london-covid-specific-bathroom-symptom-could-be-warning-sign-of-omicron-variant/ar-AASHnKI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069

    Like

  • Somebody say

    ” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:

    • talks
    • sings
    • shouts
    • coughs
    • sneezes

    COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”

    Like

  • Common symptoms of waterborne illness are:
    Diarrhea.
    Vomiting.
    Nausea.
    Stomach cramps.
    Fever.
    Skin, ear, or eye problems.
    Cough and or shortness of breath.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I see google says shortness of breath is also a symptom of waterborne illnesses, as is diarrhea.

    Why would anyone want to debate the obvious?

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @John, what is clearly obvious is the fact that you are not a leader like several of your former Kolig mates .

    Take for example your classmate @PLT … he also came here and set out his carefully considered ‘Welcome Stamp’ strategy… like you have your ‘Water Bourne Virus’ views.

    But unlike your fooling about with non-leadership nous – which you suggest you do possess bigly- he tapped into his contacts and demonstrated to those relevant people the EFFICACY of his recommendations.

    Why have YOU not done the same ???

    Surely @LyallS shouldn’t be the only expert reviewing your thesis … if it’s so ‘OBVIOUS’.

    Why do you spend every day plumbing the depths of this aquatic pool with us plebs still rather than at high levels like he did???

    Do your recommendations carry even one iota of validity as that of your love-to-hate ‘buddy’ … or were u always a follower to his leadership!

    Just wondering bro … the dynamics of how you too met up again here on BU and to see how remarkably the competitive spirit between the two of you has spotlighted your unacknowleged ‘Watery Posts” compared to his million$$ revenue generating ‘Stamp’ of acceptance is … … well, you tell us: what is it?

    Is there merit to you @John or has he aced you again! 🙄😇🙏🏿

    Like

  • PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.

    Why would you even see the need to compare us?

    Are you also a creature of politics?

    Like

  • Hants

    Unless they are in control of their water supply the agony will continue and may even get worse ..r.

    Like

  • Did you know that you may not be able to collect your life insurance if you die as a result of the vaccination?

    Insurance company in France is refusing to pay on the grounds that the insured committed suicide by subjecting himself to an experimental drug!!

    https://ns2017.wordpress.com/2022/01/06/en-france-deces-apres-la-vaccination-dun-grand-pere-tres-fortune-ancien-chef-dentreprise-parisien-de-versailles-avec-assurance-vie-de-plusieurs-millions-deuro-pour-le-benefice-de-ses-enfants/

    Like

  • JohnJanuary 13, 2022 3:49 PM

    PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.

    Why would you even see the need to compare us?

    Are you also a creature of politics?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I was wondering when PLT would make his appearance after the crack about the Reverent Joe and PLT’s baby chile.

    Clearly he sent you … some leader, and a coward to boot.

    Don’t you go also by the moniker Balaam’s Ass …. what a choice?

    You need to stay out of politics.

    Like

  • So we know COVID causes shortness of breath as do many waterborne diseases, I pointed out Legionnaires’ disease here the other day and showed its similarity to COVID.

    I don’t even have to invoke floods to get there, just observe the symptoms.

    If I weren’t so firghten for blood I could have been a doctor.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @John a very hearty 😆 …

    This blogging thingy is really hilarious … anyone just reading your posts as a first timer would indeed wonder
    “Why would [I] even see the need to compare [you two]?”…… What a laff!

    Would you care to tell that firsttime visitor that I ONLY know of the links between you two because YOU (and he too surely) did the comparisons for all of us here on BU re your school competitiveness dated some 50 years ago.

    What a thing, eh!

    So how wonderfully disingenuous of you to say that I making improbably bad contrasts between you guys 🤦🏾‍♂️🙈

    But back to the original script… it still does seem that he aced you again, not so — political connections or not!

    Had you guys never pompsetted here about that I would never have known he was a bête-noir of yours now would I!!😇🙄😂

    Like

  • The lady doth protest too much … methinks!!

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  • A 74-year-old man passed away from the viral illness at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Facility. He was partially vaccinated.

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  • There were 577 new COVID-19 cases – 251 males and 326 females – recorded on Wednesday, January 12, from the 2 439 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/13/4-181-home-isolation/

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  • 2439 people were Covid19 on Wednesday 12 January 2021. Of that number 577 tested positive=23.6%

    13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only 98 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.

    Like

  • The vaccine clinics are open for 6 hours each day, so a total of 78 hours each day.

    So almost an hour to vaccinate each person.

    I am thinking that the government may as well close the vaccine clinics, and redeploy the staff to areas where their services are truly needed and appreciated.

    Like

  • HantsJanuary 13, 2022 1:14 PM

    Somebody say

    ” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:

    • talks
    • sings
    • shouts
    • coughs
    • sneezes

    COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Did you know that many waterborne diseases are also transmissible from person to person … like COVID!!??

    Did you know waterborne diseases are also transmissible by food?

    … and are also airborne … like COVID?

    Tomorrow I may take the position that the sky is normally blue.

    I reckon there will be some who will want to oppose for opposition sake or just were unaware of that fact.

    COVID is waterborne, simple fact of life.

    It is also airborne and can be passed from person to person.

    However the evidence is pretty clear the major spread is via water.

    Like

  • 2346 people were Covid19 on Thursday 13 January 2021. Of that number 537 tested positive=22.8%

    13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only115 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.

    175 people showed up for their second vaccine or booster.

    More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/14/barbados-records-537-new-covid-19-cases/

    Like

  • Voters ? ” 451 were 18 years and older. “

    Like

  • inflammation of the heart muscle following a bout of COVID-19.

    https://www.cbc.ca/sports/soccer/alphonso-davies-covid-myocarditis-1.6314813

    Like

  • Cuhdear Bajan;
    Have a look at the latest GIS vaccination statistics. The answer might lie there to some extent.

    Like

  • David; I posted this week’s Covid-19 updates to you this evening.

    Liked by 1 person

  • 🐇/🐰
    “JohnJanuary 9, 2022 8:08 PM

    There you go.

    495X1833/2475~367 vs 342 actual

    Existence of COVID in the population continues to fall.

    If half the tests had been done there may have been 171.

    Can this number get to <100 by Friday as per my prediction?

    Any bets?”

    😂😀😃😂

    Like

  • No one at the Sky Mall testing place for the last couple of days I passed.

    Need to separate out imported cases or numbers are useless.

    We’re looking at two populations, one with high levels of COVID which has to be tested for travel reasons and one without much COVID which is tested as the need arises.

    Meanwhile, over in Western Australia, 7 day averages less than 10, here’s what a population in which only airborne spread looks like.

    Population 2.27 million.

    We should be looking at a graph like this one from Singapore

    Like

  • A total of 536 people, 227 males and 309 females, tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, January 14, from the 2,424 tests carried out by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/15/covid-19-update-536-new-cases-over-5-000-in-isolation/

    Like

  • Hants

    We are testing a second population from the UK mainly and other countries.

    Our positives will level out wherever the weighted average of the rates is in the UK and other countries from which we get tourists.

    As I said before, the ohmigod variant will not spread in Barbados as for the moment it can’t get in the water, the ground has dried out.

    Here’s what I find interesting.

    The clip you posted with the 10K peeps coming through GAIA would suggest far more testing would be done than the roughly 2,500 that are reported from the Best DoSantos Lab.

    Somebody is making a killing on the testing.

    Our GDP should skyrocket in 2022 over 2021 so who ever wins the elections must be licking their chops!!

    Like

  • So Lyall

    Q: How come the ohmigod variant isn’t running rampant through the Barbados population as predicted?

    A: It can’t because the ground dried out!!

    Like

  • John; There’s none so blind …………………………………………

    Like

  • Effective January 7, 2022, travellers are permitted to travel to Barbados with a valid negative Rapid COVID-19 PCR test result done within 1 day prior to arrival in Barbados OR a negative RT-PCR COVID-19 test result done within 3 days prior to arrival.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/arrivecan.html

    Like

  • @Hants

    Does this mean travelers will waltz through immigration and customs with a requirement to be tested?

    Like

  • @rabbit
    I am running you around and not getting a reply.

    According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?

    Like

  • @Hants

    It was a rhetorical question. Those with comprehension skill will understand why.

    Like

  • @ David,

    ” in collaboration with the Government of Canada.

    Flights will be suspended from January 31, 2021 through April 30, 2021 to the following destinations:

    Cayo Coco, Cancun, Liberia, Montego Bay, Punta Cana, Varadero, Puerto Vallarta, Antigua, Aruba, BARBADOS, Kingston, Mexico City, Nassau, Providenciales, San Jose, and Panama
    For a limited-time, flights to Canada from these destinations will still operate as scheduled, however, these flights may cease operation without notice. For the latest updates and flight information, please visit aircanada.com/routeupdates.

    https://www.aircanada.com/kr/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2021/covid-19-cancellations.html#/

    Like

  • TheOGazertsJanuary 16, 2022 10:53 AM

    @rabbit
    I am running you around and not getting a reply.

    According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Two populations!!

    Impossible to model as one.

    Useless applying math.

    Like

  • If it is possible, it is done. If it is impossible… it will be done. – Evel Knievel

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I can do it with the graphs.

    The local population is seeing 50 to 100 cases.

    The 10K people who come thru GAIA are seeing 450 – 500 cases.

    I’ll explain later.

    Like

  • Here are the protocols for tourists who arrive at GAIA with the ultimate goal of joining a Cruise.

    https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/barbados-updates-cruise-ship-protocols.html

    That’s going to be a significant number out of the 10K daily arrivals.

    Let’s say 30% of the arrivals are Bajans then about 7,000 tourists are coming through GAIA, some of whom will need to be tested.

    It is clear that the vast majority of the roughly 2,500 tests will be tourists.

    Very few will be local and many of the local tests will be from the 40% Bajans.

    Tourists joining a cruise ship here are not tested.

    “Cruise guests arriving in Barbados on the day of their departure for sailings from Bridgetown will be transported through a “sanctuary corridor” via pre-arranged transportation, said George. Guests with a pre-cruise Barbados stay (and Bajans embarking on cruises) will be tested by local authorities at the Bridgetown cruise terminal.

    Cruise passengers disembarking a ship in Bridgetown with plans to depart the same day will be transferred directly to the airport. Depending on their destination, passengers must be tested by their cruise line; testing may be waived if there is no destination requirement.

    Finally, guests who disembark for a post-cruise stay in Barbados must present proof of a negative COVID-19 test result. Disembarking passengers may access testing at the Bridgetown port and proceed to their accommodation to wait for results if their cruise line cannot provide testing.”

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  • I would suggest that of the ~2,500 tests per day, maybe a hundred at most are people who live here and did not arrive through GAIA.

    … and so Grasshopper, there will be far less than 100 local cases.

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  • The clincher is the graphs … but you will have to wait for that.

    If you understand how the numbers are arrived at, you will then be able to appreciate the graphs.

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  • John; Looking forward to seeing how you will make direct linkages between your new hypothesis and real numbers.

    Like

  • Expect if the UK is the major source of the second population that our cases will organise themselves to make our cases/million number match that of the UK.

    Notice the peak will be higher than that caused by the floods.

    This is actually a good sign because it suggests that only a small part of our water supply is susceptible to problems.

    Isolating it should not be a problem in the event of future floods.

    Like

  • This is the most recent graph of Barbados and UK cases/million.

    The lines have met.

    I suspect Barbados numbers should stop rising around here and then follow the UK numbers.

    May be a few oscillations.

    Like

  • We have no control over our case numbers at present.

    They are entirely determined by the testing protocols for our visitors.

    What it does mean is that our cases are extremely low and have little impact on the overall numbers.

    This is good.

    The vast majority of our visitors are either vaccinated or are like my boy Novax, … had COVID already.

    If they test positive they are unlikely to be a drain on our medical resources.

    The local population to a large extent has little interaction with the visitor population and even in cases where they do, the airborne spread by face to face contact is minimal.

    That’s why our local numbers are in double digits, that’s all the airborne spread can support.

    Our local numbers will rise if we get floods again and do not isolate the source that is impacted.

    Like

  • John; Nice Graph! Agree with some of your proposals. Disagree with your attribution of spikes to floods, mimicking of UK progress chart, input of tourists, etc. The basic shape of the graph is common to all biological development (Its usually called the Sigmoid curve or Bell shaped curve), especially with epidemics, and need no new factors to explain it. Thus Spikes, etc., can be more properly attributed to genetic factors of the host / pathogen interaction.

    The incursion by Omicron and its takeover of Delta territory is key to explaining how the Omicron wave has and will develop. But it is possible that its fall will be a bit less steep than its rise. Thus we will probably have a couple weeks as it plateaus and then another 2-4 weeks as it drops to manageable levels.

    You still need to get hard data on how the Covid team actually counts positive tests of tourists.

    I suspect you are on the right track re. future progress of the Omicron towards endemic status.

    Like

  • It happens in too many countries for there to be no link between COVID spread and floods.

    The virus does not spread itself, it needs fluids, air and water.

    Like

  • Right now COVID cases in the local population are well below 100 and in good control.

    Our community spread is practically non existent.

    However our numbers tell a different story because we are testing an entirely different population.

    We should be able like Singapore and Taiwan to separate the two sets of numbers.

    Here is another destination like ours but in the Pacific.

    Bali has more than 80% of its cases imported.

    https://jakartaglobe.id/news/more-than-80-percent-of-coronavirus-cases-in-bali-are-imported/

    There is an element of extreme sloppiness in the publication of our data.

    Like

  • Mauritius has opted to keep its border closed.

    Its numbers are low double digit numbers.

    But they still monitor imported cases.

    https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cemu//eng/sgxw/t1851153.htm

    I still like the gamble the GOB has taken and that is to welcome visitors and promote economic activity.

    But they need to level with us.

    Like

  • It is coming!

    Carnival for fully vaccinated

    . . . but no fetes, parties for Trinidadians
    PORT OF SPAIN – There will be a Trinidad and Tobago Carnival this year for persons who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 but there will be no fetes or parties, only concerttype shows, the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and the Arts has announced.
    After months of consultations with stakeholders, the Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday evening that approval has been given for safe-zone events, including soca and calypso concerts; calypso tents; soca, calypso, extempo and chutney competitions; steel band concerts; Carnival King and Queen shows; and Carnival theatre.
    “These safe-zone type events will be limited to 50 per cent capacity, with controlled entry and exit points and sanitisation upon entry in accordance with the public health regulations.
    Not allowed
    “Following public health guidance and regulations, fetes, parties and similar type events by any other name will not be allowed on account of the nature of those activities and the risk they pose to the increased spread of the COVID-19 virus. While PCR testing of patrons was considered as a form of risk mitigation, it was not deemed realistic as the cost per test per patron would be uneconomical,” it said.
    The ministry said a Carnival Working Group meeting was held on Tuesday to determine the specific events that will be held and a calendar of events is being developed.
    “While we understand that the wait on a firm position for hosting the festival has caused some anxiety among stakeholders, there had to be careful and measured consideration given to vaccination rates, health sector capacity and current rates of infection and mortality. The Ministry of Tourism, Culture and the Arts is optimistic about the cautious reopening of the entertainment and events sector but is also deeply concerned with the deadly effects of the COVID-19 virus,” it added.
    Minister of Tourism, Culture and the Arts Senator Randall Mitchell said the move to stage a limited Carnival represents a first step in restarting the events sector.
    “Given the economic importance of Carnival, we felt it was necessary to consider what was possible, and what events can be had safely. We look forward to the development of a calendar of events and its subsequent marketing so that we can all have a safe taste of the Carnival that is truly a part of all of us,” he said.
    Committed
    “While we remain committed to safely restarting the events and entertainment sector, we must consider the global scenario which is that Trinidad and Tobago, like the rest of the world, are in the midst of a global pandemic which continues to evolve with new variants being detected, causing health organisations worldwide to quickly adapt and change strategies.”
    The ministry added that it would continue facilitating open dialogue among the cultural stakeholders to facilitate a safe and successful return to full events. ( CMC)

    Source: Nation

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 549 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases – 241 males and 308 females – from the 1 960 tests carried out on Thursday, January 20.

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/21/549-new-virus-cases/

    Like

  • David; Just a heads-up that I’ve sent you the updated Covid-19 Charts for this week.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Pingback: BU COVID Dash – General Election Watch | Barbados Underground

  • Docs eye kidney problems
    By Barry Alleyne
    barryalleyne@nationnews.com
    Public health officials are keeping a close eye on the thousands of people in isolation with COVID-19, due to an increased presence of kidney challenges associated with symptoms of the Omicron variant of the virus.
    The country’s high incidence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is not making their job any easier.
    Up to yesterday, there were more than 7 000 Barbadians still at home recovering from COVID-19. Most of them remain asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, but many have been dealing with bouts of dehydration, brought on by diarrhoea and constant vomiting.
    Home Isolation Manager Dr Adanna Grandison said while it was not a high percentage, they had received enough reports of kidney function issues for them to flag the situation and put things in motion to better educate those dealing with the more severe symptoms of COVID-19.
    “It isn’t just happening here locally. It is a consequence of the Omicron variant,” she said. “People are presenting with dehydration and if left unchecked, you can get what is called acute kidney injury. Usually, in most people they would recover, but in some instances it can become quite severe. Every time a patient loses fluids through vomiting or diarrhoea they are at risk of kidney injury.
    “The average patient will not know they have acute kidney injury, so we are building out capacity. We are getting increased emails and calls, even to deal with minor symptoms. It isn’t a severe challenge on the system at the moment, but because of our high incidence of NCDs it has the potential to put us under a lot of pressure,” Grandison said.
    She added the symptoms could also unmask previously undiagnosed chronic kidney injury or disease.
    “That is something we are seeing a lot more of [in home isolated people with COVID-19]. We would have noticed that with the Delta variant, people were presenting with hypoxia (low levels of oxygen in the bloodstream), but what we’re seeing with Omicron is that a lot of people are now presenting with vomiting and diarrhoea and decreased oral intake [of fluids]. That is why we have made a push on some of the recommendations we have made to the public for them to keep up with their intake of fluids, even if it is small amounts frequently.”
    Would make matters worse
    The doctor stressed it
    was important those in home isolation keep taking small amounts of fluid during the day since bouts of vomiting incur a heavy loss of fluids and valuable electrolytes from the body, which would make matters worse for chronic disease sufferers. “The key to fighting off acute kidney injury is proper hydration,” she said.
    She said the renal issues were not across the board, but of concern. “It is not very prevalent. Everyone in home isolation is not presenting with it, but it is something we have noted, flagged and looking at.”
    Grandison said the question to be answered now is if Barbados was facing these challenges because it already had a predisposition to people having chronic diseases. “Hypertension and diabetes do push the envelope when it comes to acute kidney disease. These people, if we took a more detailed look into their history, what we would find?”
    She said when people report the challenges, it immediately triggers a response from the Ministry of Health. She noted people were still complaining about not getting through when they call the ministry’s COVID-19 call centre, but they were actively working to have that resolved.
    Director of medical services at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Dr Clyde Cave, said yesterday that many Barbadians suffering from chronic kidney issues had been harshly affected by the pandemic because of their precondition. He added that the international medical community had reported on many more patients affected by Omicron developing renal issues.

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • A total of 729 new cases – 347 males and 382 females – were identified out of the 2 708 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Laboratory on Thursday, January 27.

    Like

  • David;
    I just sent you this week’s Covid-19 update.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Like

  • OMICRON ‘LETDOWN’

    Private sector head says authorities failed to properly prepare for spike

    By Colville Mounsey colvillemounsey@nationnews.com
    Chairman of the Barbados Private Sector Association, Trisha Tannis, says she is disappointed at a failure by authorities to properly prepare for the most recent spike in COVID-19 cases, despite warnings that the Omicron variant was likely to spread at exponential levels.
    Making reference to the backlog of people waiting to receive official release from home isolation, she told the Sunday Sun the worst fears of the business community were being realised as it related to loss of production.
    However, Home Isolation manager Dr Adanna Grandison said plans were in the pipeline to have the issuance of clearance certificates automated. She added that pending the requisite approvals, they are hoping to bring that system on stream in a week or two.
    “We are hoping to automate the system so that persons would not have to wait as long for a physical certificate. We are hoping to have it automatically generated with the assistance of technology. I am hoping that it comes on stream in a week or so, that is my hope, but I do not have a definite time frame. We have had quite a few meetings on the issue recently,” she said.
    Tannis stressed that apart from absenteeism, with more than 9 000 people in home isolation, the business sector was also hamstrung by a number of closures in the public service preventing them from accessing critical services.
    “This is a huge concern for us. We simply cannot continue to manage the virus in this way that we are putting in mechanisms that we are not resourcing adequately. If there is one failure in this is the constant lack of assessing and assigning resources needed for the protocols that are required. One would have thought that when the models were being created that showed a bestcase scenario of 1 200 per day at peak and a worst-case of 3 500 per day at peak, we would have anticipated the problem that we are now having,” she said.
    “It is not good enough that we are caught now in this situation where we are being overwhelmed by the number of persons needing certification to leave home isolation. There are some territories, our neighbours, that have been telling persons not to expect a certificate, we can’t give it to you.
    You have to officially tell persons what to do, if it is after ten days, they can leave home isolation and return to work. We in the business sector need to be made aware of what the requirements are before we let persons back into the business.”
    Last week, COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis said that after ten days people were no longer infectious and could leave isolation.
    “The relevant section dealing with certificates to release people from isolation is under immense pressure and therefore we are getting a number of calls, some from people who are quite irate, about the fact they are not getting processed at the kind of speed they desire. A lot of this has to do with the fact that many of these people have been in isolation for more than the stipulated ten days and now have to go back to work and need to get these certificates to prove to their employers they are fit for work again,” he said then.
    However, concurring with Tannis, president of the Human Resources Management Association of Barbados, Brittany Brathwaite, said word of mouth simply would not do as there were legal ramifications to consider. She suggested an official amendment to the rules governing home isolation is required to ensure all involved are on solid legal footing.
    “This is exactly why the employers are making the demand, but as we heard from David Ellis, the shedding period would be over and persons would be free to go out. So there is no reason why we should not have this backed up by the legal changes. However, if that is not forthcoming, as a business community it is going to be hard for us to sit and wait, and that is why some businesses are requiring a second test in order for those persons to return to work,” said Brathwaite.
    According to the regulations, a person can leave home isolation only when directed by the Chief Medical Officer.

    Source: Nation

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  • There were 786 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases (362 males and 424 females) recorded on Monday, January 31, from the 2 954 tests

    https://www.nationnews.com/2022/02/01/786-new-virus-cases/

    Like

  • A total of 681 people – 307 males and 374 females – tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday, February 1, from the 2 600 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/02/02/covid-19-update-681-new-cases/

    Like

  • @Lyall

    The difference over there with Barbados is vaccinated rates?

    Like

  • David;

    I don’t think so.

    Last week one of our Top Doctors, I think Doctor Best, followed a day later by the chief UWI modeller, made statements that appeared to suggest that Covid-19 / Omicron incidence at this time could be up to four times the level suggested by testing. Such high levels might well indicate that acquired immunity from the Omicron variant may be getting quite close to herd immunity levels here. This is despite the picture that is being painted by the relatively low figures of between 51 to 68% for Vaccine uptake, depending on which data provider one uses (the GIS or the WHO or Google or Worldometer). That we may be approaching herd immunity is also suggested by such statistics as the Reproductive R0 levels, Positivity rates, comparisons between home isolations and official isolations, etc,.

    I’m not suggesting that we should follow the model implicit to the Daily Mail article. I’m just suggesting that we should be aware of their thinking and be ready to pivot quickly and change our stances as necessary.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Pingback: BU Covid Dash – Back to School Time | Barbados Underground

  • If we are to judge from recent events like cricket at Kensington Oval and political campaigning – supported by utterances from the Chief Medial Officer and Minister Kerri Symmonds – the government is about to switch to a getting ‘back to normal’ mode. We must do all that is possible to address educating our children. Crop Over will fall in line.

    Attached are charts for the week ending 4th Feb 2022. The major takeaways may be that the R0 chart is continuing to trend downward, as is the daily cases chart and that the Death’s and total isolations charts are continuing to trend upwards. These changes need to be monitored over the next couple of weeks to determine any changing or continuing trends. I’ve reposted the positivity chart as there seems to have been some recent interest in that statistic – Source: Lyall Small (Click image to see BU COVID 19 Updates page)

    Like

  • It is unfortunate with the highly transmissible variant of the virus about, the ministry of health would not have planned and allocate adequate resources to issue health clearance certificate required for persons to return to work. Health officials must understand there is a cost attached to this bureaucratic bungling.

    Like

  • Panel against jabbing students
    By Tre Greaves tregreaves@nationnews. com
    Some international scientists are urging Government to discard all COVID-19 vaccines, especially those planned for students.
    United States cardiologist and epidemiologist Dr Peter McCullough, Trinidadian clinical epidemiologist Dr Paul Alexander, and eschatologist Dr Michael McDowell, made the call during in an online press conference yesterday hosted by the Spiritually Aware Group, entitled Considering Current Global Pandemic Trends, Are COVID-19 Vaccines Necessary For Children And The Wider Barbadian Population?
    However, Dr Elizabeth Ferdinand, joint coordinator of the National COVID-19 Vaccination Programme, is adamant that vaccines are safe, prevent severe infection and should be utilised for those eligible.
    She urged parents to get their children vaccinated, despite the detractors. “I am hoping that common sense prevails and parents understand the importance of vaccination,” Ferdinand said. “They have been vaccinated for other childhood diseases for decades. I hope they will put confidence in the Ministry of Health and bring their children to be immunised if that is being asked of them.”
    Although fully vaccinated people can still contract the virus, Ferdinand reiterated that it reduced the risk.
    Alexander said children should have been back in school, as their immune systems “could have handled this”.
    “We knew over 15 months ago that masks were ineffective. The blue masks, the white masks were ineffective to this virus, so you are harming children. Plus, the masks are toxic, so all of this must end,” he said.
    “My point of view is no masks, no distancing – three or six feet. It’s garbage, toss it out, it doesn’t work. Ask your Government where the data is to support any feet.”
    Alexander is in Canada advocating for truck drivers as part of the Freedom Convoy, a protest against COVID-19 vaccine requirements for truckers to re-enter the country by land.
    He also said he was concerned about the push to get adolescents vaccinated, saying children have innate immunity that handles COVID well.
    Yesterday, Government’s COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis said he would check with the Ministry of Health to provide statistics on how many minors contracted the viral illness and how many fully vaccinated minors (age 12-17) were hospitalised as a result.
    Meanwhile, McCullough, who has stirred up controversy over his support for the removal of various COVID-19 and vaccine mandates, cited studies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States on side effects from the
    vaccines, many of which he said were not widely spoken about.
    He added that vaccines should be tossed out, as “when the hospitalisations are adjudicated, sadly the vaccines have failed on efficacy. If they fail to stop transmission, they certainly can’t be advised for school or the workplace.
    “There are now over 40 000 individuals who are permanently disabled, reported to us by the CDC. Over 30 000 cases of myocarditis or heart inflammation damage of which our Food and Drug Administration agrees,” he said.
    “We have a situation where the vaccines have no impact on transmission, they are backfiring, resulting in more admissions [of] those who are vaccinated and they are grossly unsafe.”
    McDowell, who is also a Trinidadian, charged that the spread of COVID-19 increased after the vaccine rollout in February last year.
    Barbadian Pastor Dr Ferdinand Nicholls, who was part of the panel, urged Government to consider alternative remedies.
    “Several medical professionals in Barbados have indicated to me . . . their fear of coming forward and speaking for fear of losing their licences and jobs,” he said.
    President of the National Council of Parent-Teacher Associations, Shone Gibbs, said they were meeting to discuss the issue.

    Source: Nation

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  • David; I sent you the updared Covid-19 charts last night.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Attached are the updated charts for the week ending 11th Feb 2022. The charts seem to show that we are at the plateau of the Omicron outbreak and trending downwards. The downward trending appears to be true for all the charts except perhaps home isolation numbers – Source: Lyall Small

     

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  • Enclosed are the updated charts for the week ending 18th February. All the charts, except Daily deaths, are moving strongly in the right direction but have not yet reached a level where victory can be claimed. Government is initiating a new phase in the epidemic from next week but there is a new Omicron based variant that needs to be watched closely to ensure that we can quickly pivot and institute any new or modified measures necessary. Government should also look closely at the efficacy of the Vaccination options being used. (Source: Lyall Small)

     

     

     

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  • [gallery type="square" size="large" columns="1" ids="75777,75778,75776"]

    Please see uploads for the week ending 25th February 2022. Barbados is now at a new “living with Covid” stage. The various ministries announced significant changes in their management of Covid this afternoon. As such, I am suggesting that I would submit only the enclosed graphs on a weekly basis, initially, but subject to modification if new substantive changes in the pandemic occur. All the indicators are trending in the right direction and we should all hope that they continue to do so – Source: Lyall Small

    Like

  • Enclosed are Covid Charts to 4th March 2022. Charts show a very slight uptick this week. Will check next week (DV) to see if the cases continue in the same vein – Source: Lyall Small

    Like

  • Pingback: BU Covid Dash – Getting Back to Normal | Barbados Underground

  • Attached are current charts. Except for positivity data the movement was minimal this last week. Expect that our Officials are monitoring the new Omicron variant.

    Source: Lyall Small

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  • Enclosed are this week’s charts. There is a slight uptick in the numbers in all the charts. The Ro number has exceeded 1 for the first time in months. This might be a normal fluctuation but I think it merits close watching – Source: Lyall Small

    Like

  • Plan to take vaccines into secondary schools
    BARBADOS WILL SOON be taking its vaccination drive into secondary schools in an effort to get more schoolaged youth protected against the COVID-19 virus.
    Chief Medical Officer, The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George said: “We’ve taken a decision that we are going to bring vaccines to the schools, with parental consent. We will have vaccines for those individuals 12 years and up and will do it on a school by schools basis.”
    George said it was still too soon to say when the project would commence.
    “We continue to work with the Ministry of Education. We meet on a weekly basis to look into any challenges that come up. We are still trying to source vaccines (for those Under-12) as we speak. We’ve gotten some promising leads and once we have the vaccines, we will make sure to roll that out quickly.” he said.
    When contacted yesterday, president of the Barbados
    Association of Principals of Public Secondary Schools (BAPPS) Stephen Jackman said that organisation was yet to have dialogue with the Ministry of Health or the Ministry of Education on the project, so it would be premature to comment on the situation.
    Meanwhile, Senior Medical Officer Dr Arthur Phillips also revealed yesterday that a few students had tested positive for COVID-19 since the country returned to face-toface classes earlier this year, but investigations by public health officials had determined the infections in each case had originated in the communities where the children resided and not at the schools.
    He said that metric indicated the general distribution and transmission of the virus among young people in Barbados was still based in local communities and not at places of learning. (BA)

    Source: Nation

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  • Covid-19 concern
    CMO stresses need for booster shots in face of BA.2 threat
    by BARRY ALLEYNE barryalleyne@nationnews.com
    COVID-19 CASES in Barbados are on the rise again.
    However, don’t expect an increase in restrictions, curfews, or those dreaded lockdowns to return.
    Instead, Chief Medical Officer The Most Honourable Dr Kenneth George yesterday implored the public to continue to act responsibly while the Ministry of Health tests for the viral illness. He also encouraged Barbadians to go out for their booster vaccination shots.
    George revealed that getting a third shot to provide protection against COVID-19 was a must now since the highly infectious BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron remains prevalent in Barbados’ visitor source markets.
    His comments came yesterday during a 60-minute press conference also attended by COVID-19 Public Advisor David Ellis, Senior Medical Officer Dr Arthur Phillips, and Home Isolation manager Dr Adanna Grandison.
    George confirmed that the most recent increase in new infections of COVID-19 had been discovered in the last month.
    Phillips said the country would now be collecting samples of positive tests to send to the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) in Trinidad to determine if the BA.2 sub-variant was present in the country.
    Phillips said the Ministry of Health, though concerned about the most recent surge in cases, was not surprised.
    “There has been an increase in cases. We are monitoring the situation. What is most important is that we control the spread of the virus in our communities.”
    He added that the increase in cases was across all demographics and as expected, more prevalent in densely populated communities.
    Phillips said the total number of cases last week was 40 per cent higher than the week before, while the positivity rate
    (percentage of infections from tests conducted) had quickly increased from 12 per cent to 15 per cent.
    “While BA.2 is more transmissible because of its infectious nature, it is still milder than the original version of Omicron,” Phillips also confirmed. He said, however, that the sub-variant could still have a significant effect on the country’s public health system if more people became infected.
    He added that the 28-day cumulative rate had increased.
    “Going forward, it will be very important how we respond. I would encourage people who develop any symptoms associated with a viral illness to get tested as soon as possible.”
    Phillips said the Ministry of Health was using several metrics to determine the prevalence of COVID-19 in Barbados and though the amount of testing had decreased earlier this year, which also led to a reduction in positive tests, public health officials were always on top of the situation.
    Masks
    George said Barbadians should by now understand that the theme should be having to live with COVID-19 and to continue to act responsibly by continuing to wear masks and practise social distancing.
    He added that Barbados would maintain the recommendation to wear masks in public, adding that the COVID-19 Monitoring Unit was still a small entity and could not be everywhere at once.
    All stakeholders in public health would continue to follow the science, take heed of the actions of other international jurisdictions and continue to review the protocols and restrictions in place, he said.
    In response to a question from the media, George said Easter camp organisers were free to arrange events, once protocols of mask-wearing and three-foot spacing between individuals were followed.
    Grandison also urged people to get their booster shots.

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • David
    Still awaiting that graph that tracks the rate of unexplained deaths – (mostly heart related) both globally and locally.
    Is Bushie the ONLY person who wants to understand the reason for the net increase (40% in the USA?) in OVERALL deaths even while Covid deaths are falling?
    Is this related to difficulties in accessing ROUTINE medical services due to lockdowns and restrictions?
    Is it an after-effect of covid infection and recovery?
    Coincidence?
    Does anyone care?

    Like

  • @Bush Tea

    Lyall had some difficulty accessing the blog of recent, no doubt he has noted your query.

    Like

  • @Bush Tea

    What the world cares about is greasing the economic engine to satisfy a return to pre pandemic ROIs, ROE and other more ‘important’ performance indicators.

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  • What the world cares about is greasing the economic engine to satisfy a return to pre pandemic ROIs, ROE and other more ‘important’ performance indicators.
    ~~~~~~~~~~
    Absolutely correct!!
    In plain words, we have allowed ourselves to be dictated to by the materialistic, albino-centric, mendicant demons of this earth whose values are all rooted in money and material things.

    In fact, the ‘REAL important values ‘ of life are almost TOTALLY non-financial. They are community-centric, selfless and God focused. But BBs are easily distracted with glitter.

    Bushie’s mother ALWAYS admonished, “Never follow a Brass Bowl to do shiite”.
    Bushie has heeded that wise advice.

    Don’t hold your breath about ‘a return to normal’ Boss…. a major day of reckoning is approaching with pace….

    Like

  • @Bush Tea

    The kind of world you envision will not materialize in this passage of our existence. We therefore have to make the best of this materialistic cesspool we call life’s journey.

    Like

  • Pingback: BU COVID 19 Dash – Numbers Rising | Barbados Underground

  • Attached are charts for the week ending 1st April. All the charts indicate a distinct upswing in the epidemic reminiscent of the changes around the period when Omicron was taking over from the Delta strain. I suspect we are now in a similar phase when the new variant Omicron BA-2 might be taking over from Omicron – Source: Lyall Small

    See BU Covid 19 Updates page

    Source: Lyall Small

     

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  • Attached are updates for week ending 8th April 2022. I combined the positivity and Ro reproductive rate charts. In general, the Indicators are continuing to go in the wrong direction. The likelihood appears to be that this will continue for a couple weeks or so – Source: Lyall Small

    Like

  • There were 543 new COVID-19 cases, 252 males and 291 females, recorded on Monday, April 11, from the 1 666 tests carried out by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 389 new COVID-19 cases,, from the 1 264 tests carried out on Tuesday, April 12.

    389 from 1264

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  • The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 392 new COVID-19 cases, 159 males and 233 females, from the 1 384 tests carried out on Thursday, April 14.

    Like

  • Is anyone concerned that over 300 new cases a day is occurring in Barbados ?

    Like

  • RE Coronavirus Persisting in Feces Offers Clues to Long Covid Cause

    JOHN KNOX THE TWO TIME BARBADOS SCHOLARSHIP WINNER SAID THAT HERE ON BU MONTHS AGO AND HE WAS
    MOCKED BY THE BU BETZPAENIC BRIMBLERS.

    IGNORANCE IS CERTANLY BLISS

    WE ALSO HAVE AN EPEDIMIOLOGIST PONTIFICATING…ONE WONDERS HOW MANY PATIENTS HE HAS EVER TREATED FOR ANYTHING …..OR HOW MANY EPIDEMICS PR PAN DEMICS HE HAS EVER MANAGED

    COME ON FELLAS
    1- WASH YUH HANDS
    2- WEAR YOUR MASKS
    3 GET THE JAB ONCE TWICE THRICE AND THEN BOOST UP
    4- JUST DO AS YOU ARE TOLD AND DEN COCK UP AND DED WID DE VIRUS ANYWAY
    OH I NEARLY FORGET STUDY THE EPEDIMIOLOGISTS STATISTICS
    BARE MOCK SPORT IN THE RUM SHOP
    SEEMS I MUSSEE MISS SOMETING IN BOTH MY SOJOURNS IN MEDICAL SCHOOL

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  • Enclosed are updated graphs. The daily numbers seen this week look bad on face value but they are showing some signs of beginning to peak, especially as the Ro 7-day Reproductive numbers are staying relatively static at around 1.1 this week and Deaths are fluctuating at a relatively low level while Positivity numbers are relatively high, reflecting high Covid-19 levels in the persons who are being tested. Official Isolations are also gradually increasing but at a much lower rate than was evidenced in the earlier Omicron peak which took over from the Delta variant. The new Omicron BA.2 sub variant has now been confirmed to have taken over from the earlier BA.1 as I had conjectured in an earlier post. Its official status here was reported in the Press yesterday. Perhaps the high replacement level might be a blessing in disguise as it might hopefully portend a relatively rapid peaking and subsequent plateauing reduction as Barbados’ Covid status transitions to that of a low level Endemic disease- Source: Lyall Small

    Like

  • COVID-19 UPDATE: 171 new cases – COVID-19 UPDATE: 171 new cases:

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/04/16/covid-19-update-171-new-cases-2/

    Like

  • @ David,

    171 from 582 is 29 %

    Like

  • @Hant

    Positivity rate has been hovering around 30% for some time now.

    Like

  • Fines for people who fail to wear mask
    Barbados has officially introduced a ticketing system for people not wearing masks in public spaces.
    It could cost those in breach as little as a $100 fine, or as much as $50 000 or a year in prison if the money is not paid in two weeks.
    The new system comes at a time Barbados has identified the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron as the most prevalent in the country, and one which has led to a significant surge in COVID-19 cases.
    The BA.2 variant is highly infectious, and earlier this month led to Barbados’ positivity rate surpassing 28 per cent.
    In a statement released by the Barbados Government Information Service
    yesterday, it was announced that under the new Emergency Management (COVID-19 Protocols) Directive, people may now receive a fixed penalty notice for not wearing a face mask in a public building, public place, or while travelling on a public service vehicle or other public transport, whether as a driver, conductor or passenger.
    Fixed penalty of $100
    Paragraph 33 of the directive states that a member of the Barbados Police Service may inform an individual that “if he does not wish to be prosecuted for the alleged offence in court, he may pay to the clerk of the Magistrates’ Court in the district in which the offence was committed, the fixed penalty of $100 specified in the fixed penalty notice, within the time specified in the notice . . .”.
    It added that a fixed penalty is payable within 14 days from the date of the notice.
    “Where a person upon
    whom a fixed penalty notice is served fails to pay the fixed penalty within the time specified in the notice, the duplicate sent to the Magistrates’ Court . . . shall constitute a charge brought against the person named therein, and the person shall be dealt with according to the law and shall be liable to the penalty specified in Paragraph 32,” the directive explained.
    Anyone who contravenes the directive or fails to comply with any protocol specified by the Chief Medical Officer is guilty of an offence and is liable on summary conviction to a fine of $50 000 or to imprisonment for a term of one year or to both.
    Guilty of an offence
    The fixed penalty notice will be signed by a member of the Barbados Police Service and will state the date, time and place of service of the notice; the provision of the directive creating the offence alleged, and the particulars of the offence as required under the directive; the amount of the fixed penalty, and the time within which the fixed penalty may be paid.
    A person who refuses to answer or who gives a false name or a false address is also guilty of an offence.
    People with a reasonable explanation may be exempted from the wearing of masks under specific conditions as outlined under Paragraph 21 (8) of the directive. For example, by reason of any medical, physical or mental illness or disability when exercising, taking medication, and eating or drinking, among other listed provisions.
    The new directive was issued on April 14 and runs until April 30.
    (BA/PR)

    Source: Nation

    Like

  • Critical Analyzer

    Positivity rate does not matter. That can be manipulated up or down by testing.

    The rate of positive people requiring true hospital care is all that matters.

    Liked by 1 person

  • That is not what John Knox said. John Knox said that it was in the drinking water.

    Some of us believe that drinking water is different from flood water, waste water or sewage. And I doubt anyone is knowingly drinking water with feces in it.

    Liked by 1 person

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