COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

105 comments

  • There were no additional positive cases so the total cumulative totals remain at 80. The daily graph still trends downward from the maximum daily cases of 11 – Lyall Small

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  • Where is @Robert Lucas?

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  • @ David,

    We need to know the number of TESTS carried out daily and total TESTS to date.

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  • @Hants

    The question of number if tests is a burning issue not only for Barbados but globally. The USA because of their plan to reopen the country has been ramping up testing. The number of tests carried out locally is usually advised in the daily updates. Maybe Lyall/Amit has been collecting this data but the question is if we are only testing cases presented what is the relevance?

    Liked by 1 person

  • What is New Zealand doing?

    New Zealand Announces Victory Over Virus Transmission, Eases Lockdown
    New Zealand lifted some restrictions on movement (New Zealand Herald) after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the country had won its battle (Guardian) against undetected community transmission of the coronavirus.

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  • Hants; David;

    The latest data is that 179 tests were done on 28th april out of a cumulative total of 1930 tests to that date. Perhaps a more useful statistic at this stage would be the total number of positive cases (80) as a percentage (4.15%) of the total cumulative tests. This figure represents only a very miniscule percentage of the island’s population and is only relevant if the country has entered the community spread phase. It is unclear if Barbados, St Lucia, St Vincent and Guyana have entered that phase while it would seem that T&T and Jamaica have done so from the Amit graphs.

    It might be useful to extract the data from the GIS updates and present them in a graphical or tabular format.

    I’ll have to go through all the GIS covid-19 updates to extract the data. I could probably do that tonight as today is turning out to be quite hectic.

    Liked by 1 person

  • It was reported ALL of the NAB workers have been tested with no additional infections found.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Trump, Fauci tout ‘good news’ from remdesivir drug trial in treating COVID-19

    Scroll back up to restore default view.

    Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci on Wednesday touted the results of trial examining an experimental drug treatment for the novel coronavirus, calling it “good news” as he spoke in the Oval Office alongside President Donald Trump.

    A randomized, international trial of the drug remdesivir had resulted in “quite good news,” shortening the period patients experienced symptoms and potentially slightly reducing the mortality rate, according to Fauci, a member of the White House’s coronavirus task force and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which sponsored the trial.

    “What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus,” Fauci said, calling the development “very optimistic.”

    Tune into ABC at 1 p.m. ET and ABC News Live at 4 p.m. ET every weekday for special coverage of the novel coronavirus with the full ABC News team, including the latest news, context and analysis.

    The trial had 1,063 patients spread across 22 countries, including the U.S., and the first participant was an American who had been quarantined on the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship wracked by the virus that was docked in Japan earlier this year, according to the NIAID.

    It had not yet been peer-reviewed but was being submitted to a journal for review, Fauci said as he previewed the results. Experts interviewed by ABC News urged caution until the full data was released.

    PHOTO: One vial of the drug Remdesivir is viewed at the University Hospital Eppendorf (UKE) in Hamburg, northern Germany on April 8, 2020, amidst the new coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. (POOL/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)
    PHOTO: One vial of the drug Remdesivir is viewed at the University Hospital Eppendorf (UKE) in Hamburg, northern Germany on April 8, 2020, amidst the new coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. (POOL/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

    Fauci said the data so far showed the drug, made by the biotech company Gilead Sciences, had “a clear-cut, significant positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery.”

    MORE: Remdesivir could be promising drug candidate to treat coronavirus

    For those who took the drug, Fauci said, it took less time to recover, averaging 11 days compared to 15 days for those in a control group who received a placebo.

    Fauci said the data represented “a very important proof of concept” — showing that a drug could, in fact, “block” COVID-19.

    He also said the mortality rate trended lower for those who took the drug — 8% compared to 11% for those who did not — although he noted that trend was not yet statistically significant, and the results will undergo further analysis.

    Announcing the results was accelerated because of the ethical obligation to let patients in trial control groups know about this drug “so that they can have access,” Fauci said.

    Moving forward, he said, “this will be the standard of care.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/trump-fauci-tout-good-news-remdesivir-drug-trial-172700311.html

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  • cumulative total of 1930 tests. 80 cases.Population 280,000.

    I hope there are no surprises later. This seems to be very limited selective testing.

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  • Hants;

    The main limiting factor is number of tests and the supplies for tests, followed by PPE availability and staffing to conduct perfect Contact Tracing. All countries have these constraints. All countries have been unable to do the requisite number of tests but the next best thing is to be able to recognize that after the community spread has occurred there is some measure of correlation with the statistics on tracing such as on positive infections and deaths with prevalence of the pest in the country.

    Barbados, St Lucia and Grenada were from early pointing towards relatively good outcomes as our graphs showed that Community spread was being contained by the Lockdown and Curfew mitigation programmes. Trinidad and Jamaica were unlucky in that they had to fight to keep their outbreaks at manageable levels possibly because clear community spread occurred at unfortunate phases of their mitigation efforts.

    We are not yet out of the woods but the graphs tell a tale that is somewhat positive and actually underpin the very comprehensive and innovative programme that the PM has unrolled tonight. It is far more doable than some of the other programmes to get back on track that I see being put out by our giant neighbours in the north and Commonwealth colleagues around the globe.

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  • Jamaica had 32 new cases yesterday bringing their total cumulative cases to 396.

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  • @Lyall

    A big WOW!

    It shows how volatile the environment is if we are not disciplined as a people to manage containment. This applied to ALL countries.

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  • Hants1

    I think that it is possible that now antibody tests are being done in a few places that it might be possible to derive a mathematical relationship between percentages of persons with antibodies to Covid-19 and positive tests and (depending on the statistical design) prevalence of the virus in the overall population, be that city or state or country. I’ll develop this later but such a model could save many billions of dollars for large states and small countries like Barbados. Perhaps the data exists in New York and it could easily be derived for Barbados if we could convince WHO to provide funding for the tests.

    Will check back with you later.

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  • David;

    I just sent you the new update. There was 1 new case from yesterday’s tests. The new case might have been community spread.

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  • There was 1 new case from yesterday’s tests. The new case might have been community spread.

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  • @Lyall

    Should we be concerned about case 81?

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  • David;

    I would guess no but it could go either way.

    The trajectory of the cases is still downward, hence my feeling that it is probably just a regular blip similar to what we have seen over the past two weeks and that there might be no serious cause for concern. However, it is most important that the MoH Covid-19 team ups its game significantly to ensure that they find all the likely contacts of the new case asap and test all of them. I would think that it is most important that the team should be strengthened in any way feasible especially since the Government has already committed to strategic loosening up of the mitigation measures that are now ending.

    The results of the contact tracing activity over the next 3 days will be very interesting and might define the outcomes and modification of the mitigation plans in the next phase.

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  • @Lyall

    With the unknown case on the lose one has to wonder if it is wise for the government to relax the curfew rules effective May 4, 2020.

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  • David; re. your 11:28 pm last night

    I can’t say if it is wise or not. Only time will be able to gauge the wisdom or folly of the actions or modified actions that will be taken by Government, given the possibility that there might or might not be significant disease clusters arising from the latest case.

    Proper action depends on a large number of factors for which the PM and her advisors must be weighing the pros and cons.

    As I understand it, the new curfew will be of reduced hours (8:pm to 5:am) for all citizens. Seniors and other vulmerable groups will still be under a 24 hour curfew with defined periods where we can shop or conduct specified business activities, while using masks, etc., at specified business places.

    The PM’s statement 2 nights ago suggests that she is changing her mitigation strategy from the current US and WHO designed one to a modified herd immunity one where seniors and medically vulnerable persons are specifically protected while the rest of the population essentially fends for themselves and thereby theoretically build up an immunity to Covid-19 by contracting the virus and fighting it off while storing protective antibodies in their blood. Population Immunity is measured by percentage of the population with specified high levels of antibodies in their blood as measured by antibody tests. However, it is not clear if antibody tests will be available in Barbados in numbers that would allow the immunity status of the population to be accurately measured. In addition, WHO has recently questioned whether or not immunity is correlated with the presence of antibodies in the blood. No one can definitively answer that question at the present time.

    It therefore appears that the strategy above might be taken here without access to key information on antibody levels in our population. In addition, since there has likely been only a low level of C-19 infection in our population so far as compared with the US and most other big countries, the conditions under which antibodies build up to become widespread in the community (high infection pressure) might be lacking here so that herd immunity might require several new C-19 waves and may take much longer here when compared to larger countries of the North.

    The Czar should explain the parameters under which the new strategies will be taken.

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  • @Lyall

    Understand your point if weighed with the possibility of a COVID 19 treatment becoming available in a predictable time frame..

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  • David;

    The elephant in the room is the weight that must be placed on getting one or more major sector of the economy back to functioning reasonably effectively in the mid term and balancing that against the projections on future deaths that could be directly attributable to any changes to the already enunciated policy prescriptions.

    The development of new effective treatments and even vaccines appear to be still very much in the future, say early 2021 or late 2021 when two or more new Covid-19 waves would have affected us and therefore would have had some impact on antibody development and therefore herd immunity. It should be borne in mind that effective Coronovirus vaccines have a history in veterinary as well as human medicine of being extremely difficult to develop in a timely manner, eg. SARS, MERS, EBOLA, etc,. The effect of a significant increase in Covid-19 incidence here over the next few days might signal, on the surface, that later development of the epidemic could be quite consequential if no increased mitigating measures are taken. But that is not clear. The current data from the huge outburst of Scientific data on aspects of Covid-19 control, suggests that universal use of N95 quality masks could significantly reduce spread. Similarly that strategic use of UV lights might also be effective. Also social distancing. Climate and Meteorological studies might also suggest that there might be linkage between climatic and micmeteorological conditions and the incidence and severity of epidemics. etc.

    So how would significantly increased Covid-19 infections in the next 2 days affect the resurgence of our economy? e.g., Food production; Fishing; Tourism; Education, Financial and other Services, Mercantile services, construction, Internal Transport; Government services, labour, health services; etc?

    If we get Jamaica sized increases then the effects might be significant and might call for some tweaking of Government plans. If the increases are however similar to the moderate to low increases we’ve seen here over the past 3 weeks or so then the effects will be negligible both in terms of deaths and likely impacts on plans.

    What type of tweaking should the Government consider? Food production plans seem to be quite robust and granular as enunciated by the PM. Plans for Praedial Larceny are stronger and much more granular than any similar plans I’ve seen for over 40 years. There is likely to be no need to seek to change those plans at this time, irrespective of what levels C-19 incidence reaches in the next few days and weeks. Similarly, plans for significantly improved Food Import substitution, Fishing, Alternative Energy production, etc. seem rooted in the absolute frightening imperatives of Covid-19 and, because of this, should be followed, unless some dire increase in incidence of Covid-19 occurs. The use of Google Classroom, Zoom and other conferencing software will transform our Schools and Universities and Business board rooms. Covid-19 has therefore given us a platform to finally join the 21st century development race absent some of the disadvantages that would have shackled us in the 20th century.

    So, having thought a little bit more about your question. I think it would not be wise for the Government to relax the Curfew rules from the plan enunciated by the PM two nights ago. If cases reach an alarming level in the next week or so there could be a small tweaking of specific areas of the plan.

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  • @Lyall

    Thanks!

    Much to unpack.

    The point you raised about the challenge of producing a vaccine for type coronavirus, you have heard Dr. Fauci in the US appearing optimistic about producing one late this year?

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  • David;

    The jury is still out re. the probability of development of a vaccine within a year. Indeed, the jury is still out on if an effective vaccine can be produced at all.

    Liked by 1 person

  • covid-may 1

    CBC-TV announced tonight that all tests were negative for 30th april and 1st may. The trending towards zero therefore continues. The other GIS data was not available. Grateful if you would post the attached updated graph – Lyall Small

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  • [video src="https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/covid19-interview.mp4" /]

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  • Population 380,000 .Tests 2369, in isolation 30, recovered 44, deaths 7

    Do these numbers suggest that Barbados has done great in containing the spread of covid 19 ?

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  • Hants;

    I think Barbados has done very well with the hand it has been dealt, since there are several complex factors that can influence the rate of increase of an epidemic. That is clear from the graphs showing the progression of the disease as measured by numbers of weekly cases over the period 20th march to 1st May. I also think that the measures taken by Government, i.e., lockdown, curfew, social distancing, closing schools, transparent and rational science-based management of the response, etc. would all have been influential in the good outcome so far. Absent all of these measures the outcome might have been very different.

    The countries that have done very well are St Lucia and Grenada. They are followed by Barbados and then Guyana. Trinidad and Tobago follows and Jamaica shows the worse results fo far. The Guyana cases are still rising at a low rate and this might be problematic in the future but is likely to be constrained by Guyana being a large country with a relatively low population density

    The graphs show that all the countries started off with similar low levels of Covid-D and then after two weeks Trinidad and Jamaica showed definite increased levels as compared with the others. With Trinidad being out front. As the epidemic outbreaks progressed Jamaica had the Call Centre problem which might have given rise to its current exponentially increasing cases while Trinidad’s cases initially rose slightly and have now progressively flattened. The Jamaican dramatic increases might reflect a system that might not have been optimized to detect, contain and manage community spread while the Trinidad situation shows how strict management might have saved it from having an explosion of cases similar to the Jamaica situation.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hants;

    I’ve sent the current graph of the comparison of the development of the epidemic in 5 Caribbean countries to David so you could check back later to see it.

    Liked by 1 person

  • David;

    That 10:50 am video was really fantastic.

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  • @Lyall

    Very simple to understand from a specialist.

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  • See graph comparing C-19 disease progress in Barbados and 5 other neighbouring countries. It is intended to give a visual comparison of how the disease has progressed over the last 6 weeks or so (1 May 2020) – Lyall Small

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  • Under Phase 2, there will be limited access to the beach, between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m. daily. Persons should not congregate there. (FP)

    Also, under Phase 2, Barbadians will be allowed to purchase alcohol. However, there will be no consumption in public, and this measure will be closely monitored.

    Limited access to the beach, between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m. daily, will be allowed. Prime Minister Mottley stated this action was “particularly for those elderly people who may have joint problems, or who cannot therefore exercise on the road or run or walk, but who need the sea in order to be able to allow their bodies to be able to get that kind of movement that is necessary to avoid the pain”.

    She added: “We are encouraging persons to go to the sea; exercise on the beach; go in the water; come back out exercise if you may, but do not congregate on the beaches.”

    This measure will also be closely monitored, and an assessment will determine if this three-hour window can be safely widened.

    The Prime Minister urged those workers operating under Phase 1 and 2 to protect themselves as they have been instructed, and to use the personal protective equipment at all times, not just as a safety precaution for themselves, but as a courtesy to their colleagues and anyone with whom they may come into contact.

    Ms. Mottley added: “As we navigate these tempestuous seas, we must stay on course if we are to reach safe ground and move on to Phase 3. Any refusal to comply will cause us to run aground and set us back to where we started, a scenario that we can ill afford.”

    To download the full transcript of the Prime Minister’s address to the nation, please click here.

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  • Attached is the updated graph (03 May 2020) of covid-19 cases for Barbados from the day of the first case to the end of the 24-hour curfew period. Barbados goes into a new phase of the management of Covid-19 from tomorrow with modified mitigation measures designed to allow continued control of the outbreak alongside gradual normalization of the economy. I propose to use a new format for the graph as new data becomes available. The new graph will attempt to show, perhaps at weekly intervals, what impact the suite of new measures might have on the progress of the infection – Lyall Small

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  • (Stock Image)

    The Government of Barbados and the leadership of the National Union of Public Workers met today under the Chairmanship of Acting Prime Minister of Barbados, Hon. Santia Bradshaw, to discuss a number of matters related to the cluster of positive cases of COVID-19 diagnosed among the staff of the National Assistance Board and the associated implications for the staff, the clients of the NAB and the broader public health management of COVID-19 in Barbados.

    This meeting was constructive and productive with discussions being guided by three main principles and priorities:

    • Protecting the health and wellbeing of the entire staff of the NAB and their families who have been impacted either directly or indirectly by these events;
    • Ensuring there is no compromise of the health and wellbeing or quality of service delivered to the more than 1,000 clients of the NAB;
    • Maintaining the principles of sound public health management in the management of this NAB cluster that have guided the implementation of the National Pandemic Plan for COVID-19 in Barbados.

    The meeting agreed as follows:

    • All members of the staff of the NAB on active duty since the diagnosis of the first case linked to the NAB cluster will be tested for COVID-19.
    • All members of staff of the NAB testing positive for COVID-19 will go into isolation for treatment at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Centre.
    • The entire staff of the Country Road Office of the NAB, which is the main location of the cluster of cases, along with members of their households will undergo a period of 14 days quarantine dating from last exposure to a confirmed case, at facilities designated by the Ministry of Health & Wellness.
    • The Government of Barbados through the Ministry of Health & Wellness and the Ministry of People Empowerment and Elder Affairs will take every reasonable measure to protect and promote the welfare of those in quarantine or isolation including the quality of accommodation, nutrition and access to appropriate pyscho-social support.
    • All additional staff of the NAB who may have come into contact with an infected member of staff would have done so outside of the contagious period and therefore there is absolutely no COVID-19 public health risk associated with engagement with the staff of the NAB and therefore no need for the public to be concerned.
    • The Home Help Workers and other field staff of the NAB who have been tested for COVID-19 and are negative and who have been assessed and cleared by the Ministry of Health & Wellness will continue their duties in support of the elderly in care or shut-in as of Monday 04 May, 2020.
    • All Home Help Workers and other field staff of the NAB will continue to be provided with full personal protective equipment (PPE) as per the protocols of the Ministry of Health and Wellness.
    • All outstanding payments of wages and salaries to NAB staff which may have been delayed by the requirement of quarantine of the office staff will be paid no later than Tuesday 06 May 2020.
    • The Government of Barbados in consultation with the National Union of Public Workers will develop a channel for communication with the staff of the NAB to keep them abreast of all relevant developments and to assure them of the continuing support of both entities as this situation is managed.

    Government of Barbados

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  • David;

    How do I search for all my posts over all the BU blogs from March to the present?

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  • @Lyall

    There is no easy way for a commenter to filter comments however the blogmaster can search using limited filters. What are you looking for?

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  • @Lyall, yes, feel free to extract from my weekly analysis. I see you have up to April 24. Here’s last update as at May 1 for the Caribbean (CARICOM): https://www.caribbeansignal.com/2020/05/02/covid-19-vs-the-caribbean-confirmed-cases-as-at-may-1-2020/

    Here’s Barbados specifically (table): https://i2.wp.com/www.caribbeansignal.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/barbadoscovidmay1.png

    And the chart for Barbados: https://i2.wp.com/www.caribbeansignal.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/chartbarbadoscovidmay1.png

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  • Is Barbados good or lucky ? Is it possible that there are not enough test being done ?

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/05/06/covid-19-update-third-day-with-no-new-cases/

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  • Covid-19 at new stage

    ‘Community spread’ as two cases go untraced

    by BARRY ALLEYNE barryalleyne@nationnews.com

    BARBADOS has reached the stage of community spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), but Government says there’s no need to panic.

    Yesterday, as the island recorded its third straight day without positive tests, COVID-19 czar Richard Carter announced that the two cases previously confirmed which health authorities could not trace to a source, have been linked to community spread.

    He, however, asked the public to look at the numbers closely, since health authorities were convinced penetration of the virus was extremely low.

    Carter told the DAILY NATION: “According to the CDC [United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected. Therefore, given that we have two such cases in Barbados (with no epidemiological link), we can say we have evidence of community spread.”

    He stressed there was no need for Barbadians to panic because community spread had been confirmed.

    “The fact is we have two cases which we still cannot determine how they may have been exposed, but that in no way means there is widespread spread of the virus in communities,” he added.

    No serious spread

    Carter said had there been serious community spread, the country would have seen a spike in COVID-19 over the past few weeks which would have had a direct link to the two community cases, both of whom were males.

    “The fact is that there are two cases out of 82 (2.4 per cent) that we have been unable to link, and one of these is from more than six weeks ago. So, if this was a really widespread issue, we would have seen more cases turning up by now, especially given the rate at which we have been testing.”

    Carter also said there was no evidence of community spread out of the recent cluster of cases which saw seven employees of the National Assistance Board testing positive for COVID-19 and forcing the testing of all 255 workers of that state agency.

    Before confirmation of community infection, health authorities had been investigating three such unknown cases.

    The czar said authorities would leave no stone unturned to determine how those Barbadians were exposed.

    “Anyone who tests positive, we depend on their information to properly effect contact tracing, but we also understand not everyone is going to say every place where they may have been, especially if they were not to be in that place,” he added.

    In response to the two cases of community spread, Government has again ramped up testing to mitigate spread of the virus.

    “In terms of community testing, we have increased the number of testing sites to include a number

    of polyclinics,” he revealed.

    He could not provide numbers, however, on the tests conducted at polyclinics as opposed to those at the Barbados Defence Force’s base at Paragon, Christ Church, where most testing was being done.

    Yesterday, the Ministry of Health and Wellness reported that 80 tests were conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory, with none positive. To date, there have been 2 629 tests since the first case on March 16.

    The Barbados Government Information Service in a release said 28 people would continue to stay in isolation, while the number of confirmed cases remained at 82.

    There have been 47 recoveries and seven deaths.

    Source: Nation newspaper

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  • Keep the spin going
    Govt keep spinning its tail into a dangerous hole
    The virus is no respecter of persons
    It seems as if the tail is directing the head.
    By summer ends into early winter all will eventually know the Truth

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  • David;

    I googled the question and found a simple way to search Word Press blogs for names, etc. using google.

    It is now confirmed in the BT article above re. the latest interview with Czar Carter, that Barbados has been in the Community phase of spread for sometime now. The available data does not suggest that there is a current need to panic. It does however suggest that there should be an intensification of every effort to identify any possible case in our various communities and to enlist all persons who might have relevant information in these efforts.

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  • @Lyall

    We need to up the public communications campaign to intensify awareness about self monitoring, monitoring others and where to communicate if unsure about symptoms. We are into potentially dangerous territory.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Govt needs to be truthful in all phases of communication instead of always being caught like bumbling idiots
    Although govt had data to suggest community spread govt latest decision was to open areas where community contact is all but hard to control shows a lack of incompetence
    Now telling people to stay calm is another over the top response by govt to play down the high risk of community contact in favour of a pretense game called having everything under control

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  • Also another story being tightly kept under wraps Coral Reefs damaged because of the prolonged stay being docked in the ports

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  • Tell why you are of the view the story is being ‘tightly’ kept under wraps if it was carried in the media an update given by the minister responsible?

    Decision To Be Made On Coral Reef Damage

    A decision has not yet been made about whether government will seek compensation for damage caused to coral reefs by cruise ships docked off Barbados.

    However, Minister of Tourism and International Transport, Kerrie Symmonds, says there is photographic evidence that chains from the ships’ anchors have affected the reefs.

    Minister Symmonds says several factors will come in to play in determining whether this was caused by negligence.

    These include whether the ships were maintaining the position recommended by the Harbour Master.

    Minister Symmonds also believes it’s time the cruise sector must consider how it can help preserve the region’s marine environment.

    https://www.cbc.bb/2020/05/06/barbados-news/decision-to-be-made-on-coral-reef-damage/

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  • David; re. Mariposa’s point above;

    The Czar gave a broad hint in one of his press appearances or statements, about 6 weeks ago, that further investigations were being carried out of a case where they had been so far unable to track linkages with previous imported cases. A clear indication that it was possibly community spread. It took a long time for them to confirm it but I don’t think you could reasonably claim that there was a lack of transparency re. that case or the newest one.

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  • @ Mariposa

    Some of us are still waiting for the Czar to publish his epidemiological modelling, as he promised weeks ago. There are three reasons for this hesitance: first, that it is none of the public’s business how they do their modelling; two, that even if they published it we will not understand, so why do it; and three, it does not exist.
    Take your pick. By the way, we have had the same thing with the central bank and its modelling. Maybe it is a Barbadian thing. Part of a wider Bajan Condition. Some may say a method in their madness.

    Liked by 1 person

  • lysall
    Yes he did i heard a vague response insufficient and enough for public to be concern
    A similar response given yesterday in the haste to call for calm even when not knowing how these people contract the virus
    One would think that govt now would put measures in place to call for better sanitizing of public transport frequently used by people
    Even make temperature testing by businesses a daily routine in places where high risk is probable

    Liked by 1 person

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @David Blogmaster, when conservatives fuss that government should not be intruding in every aspect of our lives they have a point.
    Citizens have to take ownership of their own responsibilities and ACT based on the directives and rules … long ago school leaders said it like “a breach of commonsense is a breach of the school rules”. At this personal level that MUST resonate… a breach of commonsense can be a cessation of life!

    How much MORE can ANY govt incite and warn their citizens on the danger and contagious aggressiveness of this virus?? When you say that we are “into potentially dangerous territory” I hear your concern but I am dismayed that we perceive that even now we need to yet up the ante on “public communications campaign to intensify awareness…”*!

    No one should be unaware of symptoms … we know flu symptoms and have since we caught the first one eons ago.. so call this flu ver 19.0…build 33 or 40 depending on your age.. a poor tech joke surely but the point is simple… it has very similar early symptoms of the cold so act as if it’s covid if you feel ‘fluey’!

    And as much as we get the big public ‘danger’ of community spread that too is a ‘breach of commonsense’. Do people actually go around these days touching stuff without a napkin or a pair of disposable gloves? How many people (even tho it’s really NOT that necessary) don’t wipe off groceries???

    Realistically and practically there is NO MORE grave danger of community spread than than there are idiots (or indifferent Bajans) who move around … as long as you have more smart Bajans than the other type there should be minimal community spread of anyone catching the virus by touching a surface … which by definition of “community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected”

    Of course there is the other ‘community spread’ where the person does not “say every place where they may have been, especially if they were not to be in that place” But that’s a story for that Brit scientist who was ‘spreading’ with his marred lover… that’s not the case of any of our unknown cases surely!

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  • COVID-19 UPDATE: One new case today

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  • Working Group Indicates COVID-19 Largely Contained In Region

    CARICOM Today:- Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), met virtually on 5 May 2020, specifically to continue their efforts to harmonise their responses to and policies on the multifaceted impact of COVID-19.

    Heads of Government welcomed a presentation from a Regional Working Group which indicated that the pandemic was largely contained in the Region due to the decisive action by Governments to put restrictions in place.

    They also noted the emphasis by the Group that re-opening by the Member States must be done with the health consideration being the foremost criterion.

    The Group, including representation from the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA), the University of the West Indies (UWI), and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), offered recommendations for a common public health policy.

    The recommendations included parameters for the easing of restrictions in Member States that would allow for a re-opening in phases. The recommendations also included suggested criteria for a protocol on the re-opening of airports for intra-regional travel. The draft policy will be resubmitted to Heads of Government for final approval.

    https://stluciatimes.com/working-group-indicates-covid-19-largely-contained-in-region/

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  • Barbados cannot be tracked in the FT interactive chart because…?

    Coronavirus tracked: has your country’s epidemic peaked?

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  • Czar: Our testing way ahead in Caribbean

    By Barry Alleynebarryalleyne@nationnews.com

    Less than ten per cent of all COVID-19 tests in Barbados are taken up by retesting of people already with the virus and in isolation.

    The true coronavirus numbers have been confirmed by COVID-19 Czar Richard Carter, amidst concerns about the total number of tests being done in Barbados.

    Once again, Carter has said that in terms of testing for the deadly flu-like virus, health authorities in Barbados are way ahead of their counterparts in the rest of the Caribbean.

    His comments came after several questions were asked, mostly on social media platforms, about just how many tests are being done in Barbados, especially in local communities.

    In a recent interview, the czar also revealed that Barbados’ one case of occupational infection remained a solitary front-line worker who had been infected during the carrying out of duties, and one person remained a completely unlinked case, an indication of how much health officials had been able to contain positive numbers, even after a cluster of workers from the National Assistance Board tested positive.

    “There is no proportion of retests done daily. It depends on the recovery status of individual patients and they would only be retested if their symptoms have cleared and there is a reasonable expectation of a negative test result,” Carter said.

    As of May 4, health authorities had conducted 2 370 first-time tests out of a total of 2 549, which accounted for 93 per cent of all done. The other seven per cent were retests to determine if isolated patients were still COVID-19 positive. As of yesterday, the total tests conducted reached 2 788.

    “All patients require two consecutive negative tests before they can be discharged,” he reiterated.

    The czar also underscored the importance of contact tracing in Barbados’ ability to discover new infections, since 36 new cases had been discovered by public health officers after interviews of people who had COVID-19.

    Carter said 42 of Barbados’ first 82 diagnosed coronavirus cases had been imported, most of them being Barbadians returning home.

    He again made it clear the Government of Barbados, on discovering the virus here, never had any intention of preventing citizens from returning home, which led to the Grantley Adams International Airport remaining open with certain protocols in place.

    Carter also said it was important to look at Barbados’ testing protocol comparatively with the rest of the English-speaking Caribbean to bring a better perspective to what health authorities here are doing.

    “In relation to the rest of the region, Barbadoshas been testing much more in terms of our proportion of population. You are only able to grapple with the extent of the disease

    if you are constantly testing,” he said.

    Carter confirmed Barbados had tested about one per cent of its population, and this compared favourably with Jamaica, which is ten times bigger.

    “Only Jamaica has conducted more tests than us, and we have been expanding the level of community testing through our polyclinics over the last couple of weeks. We have done close to 2 700 tests. The likelihood of capturing persons is much greater if we keep testing,” he said.

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  • Important govt information

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  • David, re. your 8:43 question; None of the anglophone Caribbean Islands have reached the figure of an average of 3 confirmed tests for their daily deaths statistic. That’s good!. eg. see below quote from the article:
    “Jamaica does not appear on this view of the chart because it has not yet passed three average daily deaths in our dataset. Please try other options”
    lyallsmall

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  • @Lyall

    The region is holding its own so far.

    Liked by 1 person

  • “COVID-19 UPDATE: One new case and four recoveries.

    A 32-year-old man is the latest person to test positive for COVID-19”

    “There are now 84 confirmed cases in Barbados and the number of deaths remains at seven.”

    Liked by 1 person

  • https://www.mona.uwi.edu/covid19
    Firrst Story
    The UWI among Institutions Collaborating with WHO in COVID-19 Global Mega-Trial – SOLIDARITY

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  • This or a similar link should have been in the UWI announcement. We are past the stage where folks descend from Mount Olympus and whisper a few words.

    Click to access Outline_CoreProtocol_vaccine_trial_09042020.pdf


    The protocol mentions blinding. Given the ‘compexity of the trial’: duration of treatment, possible different drug appearance etc. a description of the blindingemployed is of interest, but the draft protocol failed to deliver this information. in detail.
    The “Blinding”, “Follow-up” and “Governance” sections of the protocol makes me feel very positive about the study.

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  • This is a few weeks the Czar promised others doing the modeling would have shared with t(e public. Why is this Information being withheld?

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  • A later version of the draft protocol with more detail on blinding…
    Will not go further down the rabbit hole ….
    I would urge governments and universities to add more details to their explanations. You have been providing university level education for decades and to provide the same explanations that you gave to our parents is woefully inadequate.

    Click to access COVID-19_Treatment_Trial_Design_Master_Protocol_synopsis_Final_18022020.pdf

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  • @David,
    I was so into the documents that i did not see the very first paragraph.
    Secondly, iI thought it would be just a link.
    Perhaps you should remove.the last two posts.

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  • It is about COVID, let us leave it.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Critical Analyzer

    This doctor successfully treated all COVID 19 cases in the nursing home he was responsible for in 5 days.

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  • Seems we should apologize to GP and perhaps Trump as well!!

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  • There are now 85 cases of COVID-19 – 44 females and 41 males. The number of people in isolation has moved to 21, while the number of recovered people remains at 57. There have been seven deaths

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  • Covid1320

    Here’s latest update of the Barbados data. There was 1 new positive case on 11th May 2020 which might have been a case of community spread – Lyall Small

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  • Attached are the two update files depicting (1)Covid-19 incidence and progress in Barbados and (2)comparing its incidence in 6 caribbean countries as of 15th May. Data for the Caribbean cases were from Worldometer and for Barbados from GIS. There was 1 new positive case on 15th May – Lyall Small

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  • Barbados’ latest COVID-19 positive case is a 55-year-old Barbadian man who was identified through contact tracing by the Ministry of Health and Wellness.
    This brings the number of confirmed cases of the viral illness to 86″

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  • Two Barbadian women are the latest COVID-19 positive cases. Aged 21 and 35, they were both identified through contact tracing.

    The number of persons who have been confirmed infected by the viral illness now stands at 88.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/05/17/covid-19-update-two-new-cases-and-one-recovery/

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  • The Ministry of Health and Wellness said they are a 58-year-old Barbadian woman, who arrived in the island yesterday and whose case is under investigation, and a 42-year-old crew member of one of the cruise ships off Barbados, who was transferred from the ship for emergency medical treatment.

    No one was released from isolation today. There are now 90 confirmed cases of COVID

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  • Critical Analyzer

    Are we going to purposely sink our country into bankruptcy over other people’s agendas?
    Time to wake up, reduce our dependency on others and start using our education and commonsense to get ourselves out of this deep hole before it collapses and buries us for good.

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  • There were a total of 90 cumulative cases here at at 22 May 2020. The graph for selected Caribbean countries indicated that two countries, St Lucia and Trinidad had reduced their active cases to zero and had maintained this for several days. Barbados’ active cases were at a low level of 13 – Lyall Small

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  • Two women, aged 57 and 56, are the latest COVID-19 positive patients in Barbados, bringing the number of confirmed cases to 92

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/245718/women-added-positive-covid

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  • Amit;

    Thanks. I was scanning through your Caricom data last night and saw that Haiti’s cases are still increasing exponentially but that its sister state the DR has significantly more cases and deaths than Haiti.

    Dominican Republic cases 15073 deaths 460
    Haiti’s cases 1063 deaths 031

    These figures seem counterintuitive for 2 states in the same Island, Hispaniola. The Haitian newspaper in Brooklyn suggests that this might be due to underreporting in Haiti due to lack of resources, training, etc. To me it seems that there may be some resemblances to the situation in our small islands as compared with the larger ones with more international travel and perhaps time of kick-in of shutdown and curfew operations.

    Any ideas?

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  • @Lyall

    The Haiti situation is a case of limited testing.

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  • David;

    Yes! Limited testing is likely to result in significant numbers of Covid deaths, or in very ill persons with Covid-19, getting missed in the data gathering and reporting process. But could there be other host (intra cellular) micro environmental factors that inhibit the virus from full expression of its capacity to infect say a prescribed population delimited by seas or diet or some other such factor? Are any of the scientists looking at correlations that could tease out if there may be other limiting factors outside the obvious ones that could explain fully why there are such low incidences of the disease in small tropical countries or states, especially ones where mitigating actions are unlikely to have played a major part in the current good results? Bob Lucas might be the one on BU who has the genetic engineering experience and chops to give an informed answer to this. In any case, the question might not be particularly relevant at this stage of the outbreaks but could become so if future waves are experienced.

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  • Will a vaccine if it is discovered be mandatory? What if people refuse for whatever reason?

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  • I suspect that a vaccine for adults is unlikely to be mandatory. For Children might be a different matter. I suspect that Governments cannot compel people to to take vaccines. They can however, refuse to admit persons who cannot show a valid vaccination certificate into their country..

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  • Attached are 2 updated graphs (29th May) for Barbados and the weekly comparison of 5 other Caribbean countries re. active cases. The new reopening phase starts on Monday 1st June and I propose to continue producing the weekly graphs to assist in the visualization of the control of this wave of the Covid-19 outbreak here – Lyall Small

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  • @Lyall the numbers looking good so far, wishing Guyana’s continue to trend downwards.

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  • David;

    The graphs tell a tale of generally good management of the Covid-19 outbreak in the selected Caribbean countries. Trinidad has the best performance as it started out with a sizeable infection level but managed it almost perfectly to bring the infected cases down to zero within a few weeks. Barbados had a good performance also in bringing down the initial levels to relatively miniscule levels. St Lucia and Grenada started out with low levels and kept those down up to now. Jamaica had the highest infection levels of the six but has been bringing them down at a reasonable rate over the last 3 weeks. Guyana’s performance has been a bit spotty and is currently trending up at low levels.

    All in all, the Jamaica and the Eastern Caribbean countries have been lucky to have had relatively low initial viral loads to deal with but they all dealt with them, through the mitigation measures, in a disciplined way. If and when the next wave comes, we should be able to deal with it in a manner that might allow for less disruption of our populations especially as more and more research information becomes available.

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  • @Lyall

    The islands managed different strategies with good results. Barbados has been flexible with entry at borders etc. Some predicted people would have starved to deat etc. In a couple days we are about to reopen with minimum COVID protocol. Next stop learning to coexist with the virus.

    >

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