The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit
Blogmaster
David; re. your 4:41 am post;
You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.
The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.
Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.
Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.
The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.
Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.
There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small
Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small
Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020) – Lyall Small
Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small
There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall
Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com
Like it getting worser.
@John
When are you going to get to the big one? Yuh know the one with a man called Noah and his Ark.
Source: Nation
Source: Nation
What is going on over there in Canada, eh?
Source: Nation
@David, what’s going on is the same ‘maverick’ leadership seen … in the state of Florida, in Brazil, in the Phillipines over in France, here and ALL over.
Of course some draconian measures are pro vax just as some are anti vax … but on the matter of leadership it shows the same basic principle of forcing the designated strategy of the administration’s will.
Anyhow, let’s focus for a minute on the statement “Last month, Quebec said it had “no choice” but to allow some essential workers to continue working even after testing positive for COVID-19 to prevent staff shortages from impeding its health care services” and couple that with US CDC’s guidance which reduced isolation time for their health workers to five days from 10 (as I recall) …. then juxtapose that with OUR local authorities suggesting that there were no safe practical methods to get citizens testing positive with Cov19 to vote!!!
The point: ‘where there is a will, there is a way to get the task done’!
If positive health care workers can be properly masked etc and get back on the job quicker it’s absolutely obvious that others can be properly handled to be allowed in and out of a polling site to vote.
Leadership, Will and BS … sometimes they can seem so synonymous !
@Dee Word
When the decision was taken by the PM and communicated to confidants in smoke filled back rooms, challenges posed having general elections during a pandemic should/would have been discussed.
The rest is left to our active imagination final decisions made.
Quebec may soon tax unvaccinated
QUEBEC – Quebec, Canada’s second most populous province, is planning to force adults refusing to get COVID-19 vaccinated pay a “health contribution” in a move likely to spur a debate about individual rights and social responsibility.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Quebecois can’t have much sense.
It’s in their water which the municipal authorities supply and for which they are already taxed!!
Sarge
Just stating the facts!!
DavidJanuary 13, 2022 5:24 AM
Recent events ‘not the cause’ of surge
by SHERIA BRATHWAITE sheriabrathwaite@nationnews. com
THE COVID-19 MONITORING UNIT is assuring Barbadians that the recent surge in COVID-19 cases is not attributed to any particular event within the past few weeks.
Director Ronald Chapman told the DAILY NATION yesterday that while the Omicron variant was highly contagious, there was no evidence to suggest the cases were connected to any Old Year’s Night events or political meetings.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So tell us about the imported cases.
How are they accounted for?
DavidJanuary 13, 2022 5:25 AM
Clarke: Bajans lining up for booster shots
BARBADIANS are heeding the call to come out in their numbers to get their third vaccination shot.
More than a week ago, joint coordinator of the National Vaccination Programme, Dr Elizabeth Ferdinand, urged individuals to make getting their booster shot a priority and also pleaded with the unvaccinated to at least get their first shot, which could still offer a first layer of protection against contracting COVID-19.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
One patient, three Covid-19 infections: An exception that’s becoming more common in Spain
Bernat Coll 1 day ago
“I don’t know of another case like mine,” says Bruno Polo, a young Spaniard who tested positive for Covid-19 in an antigen test taken before his planned Christmas Eve dinner. In October 2020 and in the summer of 2021, he also caught the coronavirus. “I must have the record for infections now,” he says. He doesn’t, but he is close. Last week, the Catalan health department reported a person who had been infected four times.
Bruno Polo, who contracted the coronavirus three times, in Barcelona.© Carles Ribas (EL PAÍS) Bruno Polo, who contracted the coronavirus three times, in Barcelona.
The case of the 21-year-old Polo may be the exception now, but it is likely to become increasingly common. Experts warn that reinfections will increase due to the fact that the antibodies lose effectiveness over time and that the omicron variant of the coronavirus partially evades the protection provided by Covid-19 vaccines.
Polo spent Christmas Eve alone at home, where he lives with his mother and older brother. He felt well, he didn’t have any symptoms and he ate a traditional Italian meal that his father had left by the door. In his head, he wondered if the test result was accurate, especially since the second line that indicated a positive case was only faint. To Polo, who was fully vaccinated and had recovered from two previous infections, it seemed like a bad joke.
His brother, a medical student, put him in contact with a doctor who confirmed the reliability of positive results from antigen tests. “The problem is the false negatives,” the doctor told him. In an antigen test, the brightness of the second line reflects the viral load of the test. In Polo’s case, the faint line indicated that he had a low viral load of the virus. To confirm the result, Polo tried to get a PCR test at a medical center the next day. But he was told that under Spain’s current protocol, these more accurate tests are limited to symptomatic cases in order to reduce the strain on the primary healthcare system. He tried to get tested at a private lab, but he says waiting in line would have taken hours. In the end, he gave up. “I had to accept the third positive and being confined to a room for seven days.”
During the self-isolation period, he occupied himself with books, video games and his studies, but he was still frustrated. This was not the first time he had missed out on festivities due to Covid-19. In October 2020, he tested positive a few days after coming into contact with a coronavirus case, although he had no symptoms. The fact that he was asymptomatic made him question whether Spain is detecting the true spread of the virus. “I have taken tests out of a sense of responsibility and from those, I discovered two out of my three infections,” says Polo. “But there are people who haven’t done this and who will never know if they were infected before.” In the summer of 2021, he had tickets to fly to Milan but was unable to travel after testing positive. “The second case was the worst,” he says. For three days, he had a very high fever of 39.5 degrees Celsius.
There are people who haven’t taken tests and who will never know if they were infected before
While cases like Polo’s are still the exception, experts warn they will become increasingly common. The Spanish Health Ministry and most of the regions – which are in charge of their healthcare systems, Covid-19 vaccination drives and coronavirus restrictions – do not offer data on reinfections. In Catalonia, however, the health department estimates that 2% of all detected cases in the region since the beginning of the pandemic have been reinfections. In the sixth wave currently affecting Spain, the figure is even higher: up to 5% among the over-50s and up to 8% among the under-50s.
Pere Domingo, the Covid coordinator at Sant Pau Hospital in Barcelona, says there are two main reasons for reinfections. “Either the virus is mutating or a person’s immunity is falling, and in this wave, the two factors have coincided,” he explains.
Domingo points out that the antibodies gained after recovering from the virus start to drop over time, while the omicron variant is able to partially escape the protection of Covid-19 vaccines during the infectious period. “With these factors, transmissibility increases,” he says. Scientific studies, however, confirm that vaccines continue to prevent serious cases of Covid-19. In Catalonia, the health department estimates that in 2021, vaccines prevented between 10,500 and 13,500 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and between 7,500 and 10,000 deaths.
While it may seem scientifically sound to assume reinfections are more likely to affect people with a weak immune system, this is not always the case. “When you are infected once, your defenses have a certain specificity for each variant,” says Domingo. “And omicron shows it is more capable of inhibiting these very defenses.” This is supported by data from the Catalan government: of the 28,400 people who have had Covid-19 more than once in the past two years, 15,230 (53%) were reinfected with omicron, which became the dominant strain in Catalonia two weeks ago.
“Reinfection is not solely a question of the immune system, but rather of luck with respect to the relations in our social circle,” says Domingo, who knows of another person in Polo’s situation. “A young woman was also infected three times and there is nothing that justifies this immunologically. That’s why the mutation of the virus carries such weight, because her system was perfect.”
English version by Melissa Kitson.
So if it wasn’t the old year festivities up in the ground keeper’s gap in Endor, it must be the water!!
After all, the football season saw huge crowds at stadia around the US and no spikes.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2022-01-04/sixth-coronavirus-wave-in-spain-continues-to-spike-with-record-372000-new-cases-registered-over-new-year-weekend.html
Could be the impact of our “trading partners” on our data.
Just tell us the truth.
Just look at West Australia and you will see Ohmicron/ohmigod is toothless there.
Put Australia and South America together.
https://imgur.com/gEYsH12
These are two Continents.
On one, Australia, there is absolutely no problem in one half!!
It can’t be ohmigod, we are being lied to at worst or fed a line by people who do not understand what is going on at worst.
South America, North America, Australia and Europe, four continents, are identically affected by COVID… except that West Australia, half of one continent is not.
The Omicron narrative can’t be supported by the evidence.
https://imgur.com/JDbTBV0
Waste water Covid indicator
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/briefing/omicron-peak-us-northeast.html
Same logic applies when the MOH says most of the cases are in the southern corridor in Barbados!!
The solutions are staring us in the face.
Instead we get more fairy tales!!
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/09/18/bostic-majority-of-covid-cases-concentrated-on-southern-corridor-in-urban-areas/
@David
What is going on over there in Canada, eh?
++++++++++++++++
It’s a big country and each province makes up its rules when they fall under their jurisdiction. The writer missed the part (previously announced) where Quebec residents require vaccine passports to enter liquor and cannabis stores with effect from Jan.18 (in effect a ban); presumably they can still enter local convenience stores (Depanneurs) to purchase beer.
There is some stubborn resistance against COVID vaccine among a segment of the population ( I have a nephew in Quebec or more accurately the wife’s nephew) who is unvaccinated, but the Gov’ts action has spurred many people to get their shots and only the hard core will hold out.
John; You wrote above
“So if it wasn’t the old year festivities up in the ground keeper’s gap in Endor, it must be the water!!” and,
“South America, North America, Australia and Europe, four continents, are identically affected by COVID… except that West Australia, half of one continent is not. The Omicron narrative can’t be supported by the evidence.”
The Omicron narrative is definitely supported by the evidence. Indeed, the Covid-19 Operations manager here, Mr. Chapman, seems to be endorsing my position that it is indeed Omicron which is the main factor in the current wave.
None of your numerous charts point to water, None! Instead they ALL show that the onset of the new major December / January waves coincide with Omicron variant onset and upsurges. All presumably backed by isolating that variant from infected persons. In addition, your numerous charts all provide additional consistent corroborative proof that Omicron indeed became ascendant in all these countries in the same time frame. Occam’s razor says that there is no need to invoke water.
There is therefore absolutely no necessity to invoke contaminated water (with no demonstrated pathway) as the only possible agent facilitating or causing the December spikes / waves in many countries. The insurgencies by the Omicron variant at precisely the same time slot that you have shown, in several countries around the globe, is sufficient to fully explain the onset and the initial, strong resultant waves which are likely to decrease as host populations develop immunity and other new variants gain ascendancy.
I would however like to join your call of requesting that the authorities disaggregate the data on number of imported cases from the daily totals.
All of the continents or parts thereof have had floods.
Contaminated water supplies are just a natural follow on from severe floods.
The parts thereof which have not had floods have not experienced contaminated water supplies so have not had Omicron spread, delta spread, mu spread, alpha spread or another variant which can be made up..
Ergo, omicron and all the various made up variant names cannot be contagious on their own but needs a means to be spread to households.
Even on our miniscule scale here in Barbados the very fact that one water distribution area had most cases and those cases occurred following a the floods after Elsa and later on is enough to prove what the means of spreading the Delta variant or whatever variant.
And it came straight from the mouth of the Minister of Health, I did not make it up, just like the numbers which are displayed graphically came from impeccable sources, I did not make them up either!!
We have had the means to solve this in our hands six months ago.
The GOB is effectively saying micron/omigod is not spread by person to person contact nor is it airborne.
So what are we left with?
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/09/18/bostic-majority-of-covid-cases-concentrated-on-southern-corridor-in-urban-areas/
If it isn’t airborne as per the GOB, not waterborne as per lyallsmall what else is reponsible and since the virus can’t move on its own, then it mussee de mosquiters and fleas.
“The exception that proves the rule” is based on the Latin phrase “exceptio probat regulam,” a legal principle that can be used to argue the following: if exceptions are made under specific conditions, it must mean there is a rule that applies when those conditions are not in effect
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
All I’ve done is divide four continents with problems into halves and produce 8 pieces of evidence to study.
One of them is different, the exception.
That proves there is a rule that applies to the other 7 halves.
That is clearly floods!!
The exception of West Australia has proven the rule.
Contaminated water supplies are a natural consequence of severe floods.
ERGO, KNOX’S COVID LAW.
It’s the water.
What the GOB has done is to say to Boris Johnson, we don’t think you did anything wrong keeping a party.
Keep another, let go some fireworks and drink some rum.
Go ahead England, Barbados is behind you!!
Standard symptom of water borne illnesses …. and incidentally … COVID!!!
Doesn’t get more obvious than this.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/london-covid-specific-bathroom-symptom-could-be-warning-sign-of-omicron-variant/ar-AASHnKI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W069
Somebody say
” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:
• talks
• sings
• shouts
• coughs
• sneezes
COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”
Common symptoms of waterborne illness are:
Diarrhea.
Vomiting.
Nausea.
Stomach cramps.
Fever.
Skin, ear, or eye problems.
Cough and or shortness of breath.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I see google says shortness of breath is also a symptom of waterborne illnesses, as is diarrhea.
Why would anyone want to debate the obvious?
More flooding.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/powerful-rainstorm-may-cause-flooding-in-parts-of-metro-vancouver-vancouver-island-1.5735090
@John, what is clearly obvious is the fact that you are not a leader like several of your former Kolig mates .
Take for example your classmate @PLT … he also came here and set out his carefully considered ‘Welcome Stamp’ strategy… like you have your ‘Water Bourne Virus’ views.
But unlike your fooling about with non-leadership nous – which you suggest you do possess bigly- he tapped into his contacts and demonstrated to those relevant people the EFFICACY of his recommendations.
Why have YOU not done the same ???
Surely @LyallS shouldn’t be the only expert reviewing your thesis … if it’s so ‘OBVIOUS’.
Why do you spend every day plumbing the depths of this aquatic pool with us plebs still rather than at high levels like he did???
Do your recommendations carry even one iota of validity as that of your love-to-hate ‘buddy’ … or were u always a follower to his leadership!
Just wondering bro … the dynamics of how you too met up again here on BU and to see how remarkably the competitive spirit between the two of you has spotlighted your unacknowleged ‘Watery Posts” compared to his million$$ revenue generating ‘Stamp’ of acceptance is … … well, you tell us: what is it?
Is there merit to you @John or has he aced you again! 🙄😇🙏🏿
PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.
Why would you even see the need to compare us?
Are you also a creature of politics?
Hants
Unless they are in control of their water supply the agony will continue and may even get worse ..r.
Did you know that you may not be able to collect your life insurance if you die as a result of the vaccination?
Insurance company in France is refusing to pay on the grounds that the insured committed suicide by subjecting himself to an experimental drug!!
https://ns2017.wordpress.com/2022/01/06/en-france-deces-apres-la-vaccination-dun-grand-pere-tres-fortune-ancien-chef-dentreprise-parisien-de-versailles-avec-assurance-vie-de-plusieurs-millions-deuro-pour-le-benefice-de-ses-enfants/
JohnJanuary 13, 2022 3:49 PM
PLT is a creature of politics, I am not.
Why would you even see the need to compare us?
Are you also a creature of politics?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I was wondering when PLT would make his appearance after the crack about the Reverent Joe and PLT’s baby chile.
Clearly he sent you … some leader, and a coward to boot.
Don’t you go also by the moniker Balaam’s Ass …. what a choice?
You need to stay out of politics.
So we know COVID causes shortness of breath as do many waterborne diseases, I pointed out Legionnaires’ disease here the other day and showed its similarity to COVID.
I don’t even have to invoke floods to get there, just observe the symptoms.
If I weren’t so firghten for blood I could have been a doctor.
@John a very hearty 😆 …
This blogging thingy is really hilarious … anyone just reading your posts as a first timer would indeed wonder
“Why would [I] even see the need to compare [you two]?”…… What a laff!
Would you care to tell that firsttime visitor that I ONLY know of the links between you two because YOU (and he too surely) did the comparisons for all of us here on BU re your school competitiveness dated some 50 years ago.
What a thing, eh!
So how wonderfully disingenuous of you to say that I making improbably bad contrasts between you guys 🤦🏾♂️🙈
But back to the original script… it still does seem that he aced you again, not so — political connections or not!
Had you guys never pompsetted here about that I would never have known he was a bête-noir of yours now would I!!😇🙄😂
The lady doth protest too much … methinks!!
A 74-year-old man passed away from the viral illness at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Facility. He was partially vaccinated.
There were 577 new COVID-19 cases – 251 males and 326 females – recorded on Wednesday, January 12, from the 2 439 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/13/4-181-home-isolation/
2439 people were Covid19 on Wednesday 12 January 2021. Of that number 577 tested positive=23.6%
13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only 98 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.
The vaccine clinics are open for 6 hours each day, so a total of 78 hours each day.
So almost an hour to vaccinate each person.
I am thinking that the government may as well close the vaccine clinics, and redeploy the staff to areas where their services are truly needed and appreciated.
HantsJanuary 13, 2022 1:14 PM
Somebody say
” COVID-19 spreads from an infected person to others through respiratory droplets and aerosols (smaller droplets) created when an infected person:
• talks
• sings
• shouts
• coughs
• sneezes
COVID-19 can also spread by touching something that has the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. You can transmit COVID-19 before you start showing symptoms or without ever developing symptoms.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Did you know that many waterborne diseases are also transmissible from person to person … like COVID!!??
Did you know waterborne diseases are also transmissible by food?
… and are also airborne … like COVID?
Tomorrow I may take the position that the sky is normally blue.
I reckon there will be some who will want to oppose for opposition sake or just were unaware of that fact.
COVID is waterborne, simple fact of life.
It is also airborne and can be passed from person to person.
However the evidence is pretty clear the major spread is via water.
2346 people were Covid19 on Thursday 13 January 2021. Of that number 537 tested positive=22.8%
13 vaccine clinics are open in 7 parishes. The clinics are capable of vaccinating 3,000 per day, however only115 people showed up for their first vaccine on Wednesday.
175 people showed up for their second vaccine or booster.
More here: https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/14/barbados-records-537-new-covid-19-cases/
Voters ? ” 451 were 18 years and older. “
inflammation of the heart muscle following a bout of COVID-19.
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/soccer/alphonso-davies-covid-myocarditis-1.6314813
Cuhdear Bajan;
Have a look at the latest GIS vaccination statistics. The answer might lie there to some extent.
David; I posted this week’s Covid-19 updates to you this evening.
🐇/🐰
“JohnJanuary 9, 2022 8:08 PM
There you go.
495X1833/2475~367 vs 342 actual
Existence of COVID in the population continues to fall.
If half the tests had been done there may have been 171.
Can this number get to <100 by Friday as per my prediction?
Any bets?”
😂😀😃😂
No one at the Sky Mall testing place for the last couple of days I passed.
Need to separate out imported cases or numbers are useless.
We’re looking at two populations, one with high levels of COVID which has to be tested for travel reasons and one without much COVID which is tested as the need arises.
Meanwhile, over in Western Australia, 7 day averages less than 10, here’s what a population in which only airborne spread looks like.
Population 2.27 million.
https://imgur.com/X9bxtUV
We should be looking at a graph like this one from Singapore
https://imgur.com/OXniPV4
Singapore
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/children-covid-19-vaccination-first-dose-second-phase-2437686
https://imgur.com/jAqBEIv
A total of 536 people, 227 males and 309 females, tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, January 14, from the 2,424 tests carried out by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory
https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/01/15/covid-19-update-536-new-cases-over-5-000-in-isolation/
Hants
We are testing a second population from the UK mainly and other countries.
Our positives will level out wherever the weighted average of the rates is in the UK and other countries from which we get tourists.
As I said before, the ohmigod variant will not spread in Barbados as for the moment it can’t get in the water, the ground has dried out.
Here’s what I find interesting.
The clip you posted with the 10K peeps coming through GAIA would suggest far more testing would be done than the roughly 2,500 that are reported from the Best DoSantos Lab.
Somebody is making a killing on the testing.
Our GDP should skyrocket in 2022 over 2021 so who ever wins the elections must be licking their chops!!
So Lyall
Q: How come the ohmigod variant isn’t running rampant through the Barbados population as predicted?
A: It can’t because the ground dried out!!
John; There’s none so blind …………………………………………
Effective January 7, 2022, travellers are permitted to travel to Barbados with a valid negative Rapid COVID-19 PCR test result done within 1 day prior to arrival in Barbados OR a negative RT-PCR COVID-19 test result done within 3 days prior to arrival.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/arrivecan.html
@Hants
Does this mean travelers will waltz through immigration and customs with a requirement to be tested?
@rabbit
I am running you around and not getting a reply.
According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?
@ David,
https://www.visitbarbados.org/covid-19-travel-guidelines-2022
@Hants
It was a rhetorical question. Those with comprehension skill will understand why.
@ David,
” in collaboration with the Government of Canada.
Flights will be suspended from January 31, 2021 through April 30, 2021 to the following destinations:
Cayo Coco, Cancun, Liberia, Montego Bay, Punta Cana, Varadero, Puerto Vallarta, Antigua, Aruba, BARBADOS, Kingston, Mexico City, Nassau, Providenciales, San Jose, and Panama
For a limited-time, flights to Canada from these destinations will still operate as scheduled, however, these flights may cease operation without notice. For the latest updates and flight information, please visit aircanada.com/routeupdates.
https://www.aircanada.com/kr/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2021/covid-19-cancellations.html#/
TheOGazertsJanuary 16, 2022 10:53 AM
@rabbit
I am running you around and not getting a reply.
According to your mathematical model, there should have been <100 cases on Friday. Where did your model fail?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Two populations!!
Impossible to model as one.
Useless applying math.
If it is possible, it is done. If it is impossible… it will be done. – Evel Knievel
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I can do it with the graphs.
The local population is seeing 50 to 100 cases.
The 10K people who come thru GAIA are seeing 450 – 500 cases.
I’ll explain later.
Here are the protocols for tourists who arrive at GAIA with the ultimate goal of joining a Cruise.
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/barbados-updates-cruise-ship-protocols.html
That’s going to be a significant number out of the 10K daily arrivals.
Let’s say 30% of the arrivals are Bajans then about 7,000 tourists are coming through GAIA, some of whom will need to be tested.
It is clear that the vast majority of the roughly 2,500 tests will be tourists.
Very few will be local and many of the local tests will be from the 40% Bajans.
Tourists joining a cruise ship here are not tested.
“Cruise guests arriving in Barbados on the day of their departure for sailings from Bridgetown will be transported through a “sanctuary corridor” via pre-arranged transportation, said George. Guests with a pre-cruise Barbados stay (and Bajans embarking on cruises) will be tested by local authorities at the Bridgetown cruise terminal.
Cruise passengers disembarking a ship in Bridgetown with plans to depart the same day will be transferred directly to the airport. Depending on their destination, passengers must be tested by their cruise line; testing may be waived if there is no destination requirement.
Finally, guests who disembark for a post-cruise stay in Barbados must present proof of a negative COVID-19 test result. Disembarking passengers may access testing at the Bridgetown port and proceed to their accommodation to wait for results if their cruise line cannot provide testing.”
I would suggest that of the ~2,500 tests per day, maybe a hundred at most are people who live here and did not arrive through GAIA.
… and so Grasshopper, there will be far less than 100 local cases.
The clincher is the graphs … but you will have to wait for that.
If you understand how the numbers are arrived at, you will then be able to appreciate the graphs.
John; Looking forward to seeing how you will make direct linkages between your new hypothesis and real numbers.
There you go Lyall
https://imgur.com/cSYDcwj
Expect if the UK is the major source of the second population that our cases will organise themselves to make our cases/million number match that of the UK.
Notice the peak will be higher than that caused by the floods.
This is actually a good sign because it suggests that only a small part of our water supply is susceptible to problems.
Isolating it should not be a problem in the event of future floods.
https://imgur.com/M8kSTAY
This is the most recent graph of Barbados and UK cases/million.
The lines have met.
I suspect Barbados numbers should stop rising around here and then follow the UK numbers.
May be a few oscillations.
https://imgur.com/2QD0URS
We have no control over our case numbers at present.
They are entirely determined by the testing protocols for our visitors.
What it does mean is that our cases are extremely low and have little impact on the overall numbers.
This is good.
The vast majority of our visitors are either vaccinated or are like my boy Novax, … had COVID already.
If they test positive they are unlikely to be a drain on our medical resources.
The local population to a large extent has little interaction with the visitor population and even in cases where they do, the airborne spread by face to face contact is minimal.
That’s why our local numbers are in double digits, that’s all the airborne spread can support.
Our local numbers will rise if we get floods again and do not isolate the source that is impacted.
John; Nice Graph! Agree with some of your proposals. Disagree with your attribution of spikes to floods, mimicking of UK progress chart, input of tourists, etc. The basic shape of the graph is common to all biological development (Its usually called the Sigmoid curve or Bell shaped curve), especially with epidemics, and need no new factors to explain it. Thus Spikes, etc., can be more properly attributed to genetic factors of the host / pathogen interaction.
The incursion by Omicron and its takeover of Delta territory is key to explaining how the Omicron wave has and will develop. But it is possible that its fall will be a bit less steep than its rise. Thus we will probably have a couple weeks as it plateaus and then another 2-4 weeks as it drops to manageable levels.
You still need to get hard data on how the Covid team actually counts positive tests of tourists.
I suspect you are on the right track re. future progress of the Omicron towards endemic status.
It happens in too many countries for there to be no link between COVID spread and floods.
The virus does not spread itself, it needs fluids, air and water.
Right now COVID cases in the local population are well below 100 and in good control.
Our community spread is practically non existent.
However our numbers tell a different story because we are testing an entirely different population.
We should be able like Singapore and Taiwan to separate the two sets of numbers.
Here is another destination like ours but in the Pacific.
Bali has more than 80% of its cases imported.
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/more-than-80-percent-of-coronavirus-cases-in-bali-are-imported/
There is an element of extreme sloppiness in the publication of our data.
Mauritius has opted to keep its border closed.
Its numbers are low double digit numbers.
But they still monitor imported cases.
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cemu//eng/sgxw/t1851153.htm
I still like the gamble the GOB has taken and that is to welcome visitors and promote economic activity.
But they need to level with us.
It is coming!
Source: Nation
The Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory identified 549 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases – 241 males and 308 females – from the 1 960 tests carried out on Thursday, January 20.
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/01/21/549-new-virus-cases/
David; Just a heads-up that I’ve sent you the updated Covid-19 Charts for this week.
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Q&A: Dr. Blumberg answers questions about new COVID-19 sub-variant
https://www.kcra.com/article/what-we-know-about-new-omicron-sub-variant/38904628
https://www.kcra.com/amp/article/what-we-know-about-new-omicron-sub-variant/38904628
Source: Nation
A total of 729 new cases – 347 males and 382 females – were identified out of the 2 708 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Laboratory on Thursday, January 27.
David;
I just sent you this week’s Covid-19 update.
Attached are updated charts for the week ending 28th January. We saw a record number of daily cases (923) on 25th January. This was followed over the last 3 days with daily cases in the 700’s. The reproductive R0 numbers increased slowly to just 1.18; Deaths and Daily Official isolations also remained at relatively low levels while Home isolations rose precipitately. If these dynamics are maintained there will be no need to panic and fear that the dread worse case prediction of 3,500 peak cases per day is heading our way. The data also indicates that the Covid-19 team and the Barbados populace in general are continuing to do a good job – Source: Lyall Small
Source: Nation
There were 786 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases (362 males and 424 females) recorded on Monday, January 31, from the 2 954 tests
https://www.nationnews.com/2022/02/01/786-new-virus-cases/
A total of 681 people – 307 males and 374 females – tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday, February 1, from the 2 600 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/02/02/covid-19-update-681-new-cases/
David;
Interesting article in the Daily Mail today
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10473265/Europe-heading-Covid-ceasefire-lead-END-pandemic-says-WHO.html?ito=push-notification&ci=7kjd0LUcFa&cri=9n9cOnRYeE&si=42003081&xi=cb721a39-c090-416d-bc1e-7ffef9d14f70&ai=10473265
@Lyall
The difference over there with Barbados is vaccinated rates?
David;
I don’t think so.
Last week one of our Top Doctors, I think Doctor Best, followed a day later by the chief UWI modeller, made statements that appeared to suggest that Covid-19 / Omicron incidence at this time could be up to four times the level suggested by testing. Such high levels might well indicate that acquired immunity from the Omicron variant may be getting quite close to herd immunity levels here. This is despite the picture that is being painted by the relatively low figures of between 51 to 68% for Vaccine uptake, depending on which data provider one uses (the GIS or the WHO or Google or Worldometer). That we may be approaching herd immunity is also suggested by such statistics as the Reproductive R0 levels, Positivity rates, comparisons between home isolations and official isolations, etc,.
I’m not suggesting that we should follow the model implicit to the Daily Mail article. I’m just suggesting that we should be aware of their thinking and be ready to pivot quickly and change our stances as necessary.
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If we are to judge from recent events like cricket at Kensington Oval and political campaigning – supported by utterances from the Chief Medial Officer and Minister Kerri Symmonds – the government is about to switch to a getting ‘back to normal’ mode. We must do all that is possible to address educating our children. Crop Over will fall in line.
It is unfortunate with the highly transmissible variant of the virus about, the ministry of health would not have planned and allocate adequate resources to issue health clearance certificate required for persons to return to work. Health officials must understand there is a cost attached to this bureaucratic bungling.
Source: Nation
David; I sent you the updared Covid-19 charts last night.
Attached are the updated charts for the week ending 11th Feb 2022. The charts seem to show that we are at the plateau of the Omicron outbreak and trending downwards. The downward trending appears to be true for all the charts except perhaps home isolation numbers – Source: Lyall Small
Enclosed are the updated charts for the week ending 18th February. All the charts, except Daily deaths, are moving strongly in the right direction but have not yet reached a level where victory can be claimed. Government is initiating a new phase in the epidemic from next week but there is a new Omicron based variant that needs to be watched closely to ensure that we can quickly pivot and institute any new or modified measures necessary. Government should also look closely at the efficacy of the Vaccination options being used. (Source: Lyall Small)
[gallery type="square" size="large" columns="1" ids="75777,75778,75776"]
Please see uploads for the week ending 25th February 2022. Barbados is now at a new “living with Covid” stage. The various ministries announced significant changes in their management of Covid this afternoon. As such, I am suggesting that I would submit only the enclosed graphs on a weekly basis, initially, but subject to modification if new substantive changes in the pandemic occur. All the indicators are trending in the right direction and we should all hope that they continue to do so – Source: Lyall Small
Enclosed are Covid Charts to 4th March 2022. Charts show a very slight uptick this week. Will check next week (DV) to see if the cases continue in the same vein – Source: Lyall Small
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Enclosed are this week’s charts. There is a slight uptick in the numbers in all the charts. The Ro number has exceeded 1 for the first time in months. This might be a normal fluctuation but I think it merits close watching – Source: Lyall Small
Source: Nation
Source: Nation
David
Still awaiting that graph that tracks the rate of unexplained deaths – (mostly heart related) both globally and locally.
Is Bushie the ONLY person who wants to understand the reason for the net increase (40% in the USA?) in OVERALL deaths even while Covid deaths are falling?
Is this related to difficulties in accessing ROUTINE medical services due to lockdowns and restrictions?
Is it an after-effect of covid infection and recovery?
Coincidence?
Does anyone care?
@Bush Tea
Lyall had some difficulty accessing the blog of recent, no doubt he has noted your query.
@Bush Tea
What the world cares about is greasing the economic engine to satisfy a return to pre pandemic ROIs, ROE and other more ‘important’ performance indicators.
What the world cares about is greasing the economic engine to satisfy a return to pre pandemic ROIs, ROE and other more ‘important’ performance indicators.
~~~~~~~~~~
Absolutely correct!!
In plain words, we have allowed ourselves to be dictated to by the materialistic, albino-centric, mendicant demons of this earth whose values are all rooted in money and material things.
In fact, the ‘REAL important values ‘ of life are almost TOTALLY non-financial. They are community-centric, selfless and God focused. But BBs are easily distracted with glitter.
Bushie’s mother ALWAYS admonished, “Never follow a Brass Bowl to do shiite”.
Bushie has heeded that wise advice.
Don’t hold your breath about ‘a return to normal’ Boss…. a major day of reckoning is approaching with pace….
@Bush Tea
The kind of world you envision will not materialize in this passage of our existence. We therefore have to make the best of this materialistic cesspool we call life’s journey.
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Attached are charts for the week ending 1st April. All the charts indicate a distinct upswing in the epidemic reminiscent of the changes around the period when Omicron was taking over from the Delta strain. I suspect we are now in a similar phase when the new variant Omicron BA-2 might be taking over from Omicron – Source: Lyall Small
See BU Covid 19 Updates page
Attached are updates for week ending 8th April 2022. I combined the positivity and Ro reproductive rate charts. In general, the Indicators are continuing to go in the wrong direction. The likelihood appears to be that this will continue for a couple weeks or so – Source: Lyall Small