COVID 19 UPDATES

The following comment inspired the blogmaster to expand the focus on data collection and discussion about the COVID 19 pandemic. Thanks to @Lyall@Amit

Blogmaster


David; re. your 4:41 am post;

You are correct but I have indeed considered that cohort of the population.

The reason that the US experts are beating the drum for testing, testing and more testing is to get a handle on what proportion of the general public has been compromised by the virus in any way and has left its signatures in body fluids including blood in the population. The virus is shed from the infected body as the disease is brought under control. When it is controlled it has been found that it takes around 7 days for all particles to be shed from the body. Infected persons are released back into the community when they test negative twice over a period of 2 days.

Barbados, like all of our island neighbours, did or does not have access to large numbers of tests and had to use what we had very sparingly. Thus, the only measure that we had for gauging the incidence of the virus in the population (and a very imperfect one, at that) might be by comparing the evidence of infection levels hinted at by a comparison of the graphs of the progress of the various Covid-19 outbreaks in our Islands.

Most of the world was in the same position as the Caribbean and used the data obtained by the minimal testing of infected people and their contacts and their contacts to produce the graphs we see on such sites as WHO and Worldometer etc. All these graphs give an imperfect picture and significant underestimation of infection levels in the county or country in which the tests are carried out, but, since they are carried out in the same way in each country they might provide some rationale for guesstimating the comparative levels of the infection in various groups of countries.

The data shows that, starting out at essentially the same levels, there was some divergence in relation to the rate of infection and therefore progress of the various outbreaks in various countries. The graphs for Barbados showed low and declining levels of infection from the beginning, peaking at the level of 13 positive cases per day and thereafter showing a slowly declining trend. The individuals who would have contributed to the declining trend would have been primarily from the contact testing but should also have included other individuals referred by Health professionals or who presented themselves to Government institutions because of concern that their symptoms might point to untimely death due to the dread Covid-19.

Amit, in an earlier post on this blog, reported on his initiative of graphing Covid-19 incidence over weekly periods throughout the epidemic, in several Caribbean Islands. If David thinks it is appropriate and Amit agrees I can post a subset of graphs clipped from his data for 6 Caribbean territories which I think could illustrate some of what I have presented above.


Covid 19

There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Llyall Small

COVID 19

Attached is the updated C-19 graph for 2020-04-23. There were no additional positive cases from yesterday’s tests and therefore cumulative positive cases remain at 76 – Lyall Small

covid10

covid12

Two new positive cases were identified from yesterday’s tests. There are now 5 cases of contacts with a previously identified individual. The 5 cases are workers from a Government Institution. Tests are ongoing today (25 April 2020)Lyall Small

Covid11

Updated graph for 26 April 2020. No new +ve cases were found. Cumulative count is still 79 – Lyall Small

covid13

There was one additional +ve case identified today (27 April 2020) from the last tranche of NAB workers moving the cumulative total cases to 80. The graph is still essentially trending downwards – Lyallsmall

Covid-Cumulative 1

Graphing Covid-19 incidence in several Caribbean Islands – Source data: caribbeansignal.com

3,403 comments

  • Sarge.

    Now look at the USA overall.

    You see de ffing spikes or you blind?

    Floods all over in certain states.

    DeSantis just knew how to read the curves!!

    If he has any sense he will be attending to his water supply and making it as proof as he can against future floods.

    Which he is!!!

    The only reason I know these things is because I’ve been looking at the rainfall where I live on a daily, weekly and monthly basis since 2016 an know what to look for by experience.

    DeSantis obviously got some top gun advisors.

    The Brits and EU folk don’t know what the ass they are doing.

    … unfortunately neither the Canadians.

    Like

  • Talk with DeSantis and his advisors and use common sense.

    Like

  • So Sarge

    Back to you!!

    Ontario does not exist in a vacuum.

    It has neighbours.

    One is Quebec that had problems in July.

    I tired asking Hants where in Ontario, I know the answer, in the black ring around the Quebec/Ontario border!!

    If the worldwide patterns are consistent, it is BC you should be worried about.

    Like

  • Sarge man

    Bajans claim those who went to the UK in the 60’s turned mad.

    I don’t know about that but I would have to say that the cold air in Canada stopped at least two Bajans thinking, and I know that for sure because one went through HC and had to have leff here with some sense!!

    Look at GP, nothing ent wrong wid he … all de same he in Florida where it ent so cold.

    Like

  • @John
    The lower 48 refers to the contiguous states of the USA i.e. connected territory which excludes Alaska and Hawaii.

    Not sure what the Ontario/Quebec border has to do with anything but since you are all about COVID as a water borne illness, how do floods contribute to the spread of COVID as per your thinking? Does the flood water contaminate the water supply? If the supply is contaminated aren’t there measures in place in the various countries to mitigate the potential harm? Now presumably you’ve heard of the Great Lakes, four of them form part of the border between Canada and the USA but Ontario is the only Canadian province that touches the Great Lakes. Would a body of water as large as the Great Lakes contribute to the spread of COVID or only if they cause flooding as per your reasoning?

    Like

  • Still drinking the Bajan tap water. Not sick then or now.

    Like

  • Cuhdear BajanDecember 17, 2021 2:37 AM

    Still drinking the Bajan tap water. Not sick then or now.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Me too.

    Me either!!

    Like

  • What is known is the speed which Omnicron spreads, FAST!

    Like

  • Sarge

    Where does the water which flows out of the St. Lawrence River come from?

    What additional states in the 48 do you see on the map below have notoriously high COVID levels?

    Which of the states/provinces in this snip have falling COVID cases?

    Do any?

    Rivers flow across borders routinely without passports!!

    Like

  • SargeantDecember 17, 2021 1:23 AM

    If the supply is contaminated aren’t there measures in place in the various countries to mitigate the potential harm?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    There is no water production facility in the world that has been designed to remove all of the contaminants in water.

    They will be specified and designed to remove up to a certain level which mitigates harm.

    See Safe Drinking Water Act, WHO levels, various other standards.

    The question is how many production facilities do you think were designed and built prior to the advent of the virus?

    What is that “certain level”?

    No one knows what levels mitigate harm!!

    The only water production facilities that can remove ALL OF THE VIRUS are those which have NONE at their input.

    If the water is tapped above the height of the sewage production in a country … cool … Dominica, Grenada, Taiwan etc.

    If there is a zone protection system in place where the time of travel exceeds the time for which the virus is viable … cool … Belle, Hampton.

    Do we have a source of water for which the time of travel is minimal?

    Sho’ ’nuff!!

    Bowmanston and the desal plant!!

    This is not rocket science.

    Must be the cold air!!

    Like

  • Anyway, go and see if you can get some warmth in your head and get thinking straight.

    Avoid British Columbia!!

    Up to 753 cases from 584 cases yesterday and 519 day before.

    Ontario/Quebec will probably soon be small potatoes in comparison, by next week probably if not before.

    Like

  • Last figure I saw for those who got the Ohmigod strain AND were vaccinated was 60%.

    I am hearing it is now 80%.

    I am also seeing the the Omigod strain will supplant the Delta strain.

    Does this mean that we now have a pandemic of the vaccinated?

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  • @John
    Does this mean that we now have a pandemic of the vaccinated?
    +++++++++++++

    Does this mean that we now have a pandemic of the unvaccinated? There fixed that for you

    Like

  • @John
    Here’s a book recommendation, “Water 4.0” by David Sedlak, I bought the book a couple of years ago after listening to a radio interview with him as a participant.

    You’ll gain some knowledge about water from a respected source

    Like

  • SargeantDecember 17, 2021 9:56 AM

    @John
    Here’s a book recommendation, “Water 4.0” by David Sedlak, I bought the book a couple of years ago after listening to a radio interview with him as a participant.

    You’ll gain some knowledge about water from a respected source

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Will it deal with the appearance of the COVID Virus in water or is it way out of date?

    I dealing with cutting edge thought!!

    Like

  • So Sarge,

    You tink dat the BC cases gine explode and prove my cutting edge thought?

    Like

  • I hope not.

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  • de pedantic Dribbler

    Your argumentation @John is very reflective of that nursery rhyme we learned about the ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’ … apparently you are the only one who can see the startling obvious!

    That’s the good side.

    On the other hand your actions are much more indicative of the dark side of reshaping what’s obvious from the school of Machiavelli … “Never attempt to win by force what can be won by deception.”

    You NEVER answered the queries above … rather you introduced other ‘irrelevant’ concepts to cloud the issue.

    You do your deception well … I expect many here are no longer awed or fooled by it. The nakedness is quite evident.

    Like

  • de pedantic DribblerDecember 17, 2021 10:45 AM

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You live up in de cold air too?

    Like

  • This is a good read.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/protecting-one-worlds-largest-sources-freshwater/

    At the end of the article take a look at the Mississippi watershed and you appreciate how interconnected are the states of the United States..

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/watershed/?utm_source=BibblioRCM_Row

    All ends up in Mississippi!!!

    What do COVID deaths look like down there?

    Highest in the United States!!

    Second Highest is Alabama!!!

    Locate this state in the catchment area.

    The St. Lawrence waterway has a catchment in Canada and on the west side of the Appalachians in the US.

    It all fits together and makes perfect sense.

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  • @John
    You never answered the question about Great Lakes flooding but if you don’t have answer just bluff and move on.

    BTW the most of the water flowing in the St. Lawrence comes from the Great Lakes, water from all of them eventually find its way to Lake Ontario (the smallest} which empties into the St. Lawrence and ultimately into the Atlantic. Do you know how many water intake and sewage systems are connected to the Great Lakes and rivers that flow into them? If your theory was viable, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces should be overrun with COVID cases far exceeding anything that’s forecast because they would be the ultimate recipients of the treated (and untreated) sewage discharge that is downloaded along the way; remember you are of the opinion that the COVID virus is present in wastewater and cannot be treated by any means known to man.

    Liked by 2 people

  • This is a good read too, the picture is worth 1000 words, far more than is required to answer any query.

    https://www.worldatlas.com/rivers/st-lawrence-river.html

    Liked by 1 person

  • Are we heading for New Year lockdown? Prof Neil Ferguson warns of 5,000 deaths a DAY this winter without tighter curbs in next fortnight as Omicron sends UK cases to ANOTHER record of 93,000 and hospital admissions jump by a third in London

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10321139/Is-UK-heading-New-Year-lockdown-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-7-000-Omicron-deaths-DAY.html

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Doom and Gloom for Brits from professor lockdown himself!!

    You would think that after all the vaccinations administered worldwide we might smell a rat in the adverse numbers.

    It can’t be that vaccinations made by supposedly reputable companies could have the world in such a mess!!

    The experts have to be missing something very very basic.

    How can Japan be in a position like this?

    It has a population of 125 million, almost double that of the UK and yet only about 18K deaths to the UK’s 147K.

    10:1

    This is crazy!!

    What is the UK doing so wrong?

    Rather, what has Japan got going for it that the UK doesn’t?

    Like

  • The UK is worser off now than when it started whereas Japan is more or less COVID free!!

    Like

  • SargeantDecember 17, 2021 11:21 AM

    @John
    You never answered the question about Great Lakes flooding but if you don’t have answer just bluff and move on.

    BTW the most of the water flowing in the St. Lawrence comes from the Great Lakes, water from all of them eventually find its way to Lake Ontario (the smallest} which empties into the St. Lawrence and ultimately into the Atlantic. Do you know how many water intake and sewage systems are connected to the Great Lakes and rivers that flow into them? If your theory was viable, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces should be overrun with COVID cases far exceeding anything that’s forecast because they would be the ultimate recipients of the treated (and untreated) sewage discharge that is downloaded along the way; remember you are of the opinion that the COVID virus is present in wastewater and cannot be treated by any means known to man.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence are cesspools as are most rivers and lakes the world over.

    Water treatment is essentially good and removes the bulk of contaminants, including any viruses.

    However, it does not remove all!!

    This virus is brand new and there is no standard in the Safe Drinking Water Act (US) or WHO (guidelines) which is an acceptable level to minimise the risk.

    There isn’t a plant on earth that meets the standard because there is no standard.

    There isn’t a plant on earth that will remove all because that is impossible.

    It just so happens that the virus is lethal.

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  • SargeantDecember 17, 2021 1:23 AM

    Would a body of water as large as the Great Lakes contribute to the spread of COVID or only if they cause flooding as per your reasoning?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Not my reasoning, yours!!!

    The Great Lakes won’t cause flooding on their own!!!

    Need Rain!!!

    Question really not worth answering.

    Like

  • Regardless of the size of the Great Lakes, they are contaminated by surface runoff, (need rain), waste water and sewage, simple irrefutable fact!!

    The amount of surface run off into the Great Lakes will only be a function of the rain that falls in their catchment.

    Flooding in the catchment moves wastewater and sewage from the flooded areas more rapidly into the Great Lakes …. along with the surface runoff which will increase.

    Treatment plants will get water which is more contaminated to process, perhaps beyond what they are designed for.

    The result is they will/may not be able to deliver output with a level of contamination which meeds the SDWA or WHO guidelines.

    What do you think the authorities will say if they are told to shutdown a plant or plants and put millions of people out of water?

    COVID is a problem of urbanization, one of the reasons Africa and much of the third world is not too badly affected and water is at the root.

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  • Meanwhile, the real explosion in cases seem to be in train over in British Columbia.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-dec-16-1.6046729

    Like

  • Decided to give Google some questions!!

    Here they are with the answers!!

    The Great Lakes provide drinking water to more than 70% of Ontarians and their watersheds are home to more than 30,000 species of fish, birds and other living things.Jun 18, 2020

    How Clean is Ontario tap water?
    Ontario. In Ontario, government data posted online shows 919 lead exceedances of the federal guideline of five ppb in lead tests at the tap over the past two years. Exceedance rates reach as high as 50 per cent in some municipalities.Nov 4, 2019

    What city has the cleanest tap water in Canada?
    A small neighbourhood in Abbotsford, B.C. has the best municipal tap water in world. Clearbrook won gold at the annual Berkeley Springs International Water Tasting in West Virginia on February 27, 2016.Mar 7, 2016

    Of course we all know that some in Abbotsford was evacuated … major problem with water.

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  • Looks like Researchers at Israel’s Hebrew University are saying fifth wave has started.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/hebrew-u-researchers-tell-government-israels-5th-covid-wave-is-already-here/

    Their floods were about the same time as BC’s and I reckoned both would see cases rise within 4 to 6 weeks.

    It is still as far as I am concerned too early to call Israel but who am I to contradict researchers from a big able university.

    Looks like I may be right on both counts as I was on Spain Italy, the UK etc etc.

    I’ll get back to Ontario/Quebec which both have rising cases later.

    Suspect they will be dwarfed by BC.

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  • [gallery type="square" columns="1" size="full" ids="74959,74960,74961"]

    Enclosed are the charts for the week ending 17th December. The charts are all essentially going in the right direction. Vaccinations are however only slowly increasing. There has been no spike in indicators so far following the Republic celebrations just over 2 weeks ago. There is still need for general vigilance and scrupulously following the protocols as we await the Omicron variant’s entry into the fray – Source: Lyall Small

    See BU Covid 19 Updates page

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  • The charts are going in the right direction because the virus is slowly disappearing in the catchment area supplying the desal plant as its ability to move is being curtailed as the ground dries out.

    Looking at other countries, the number of cases should settle at a level which can be supported by airborne spread and any instances of visitors or returning nationals being identified with it, looks like low double digits, maybe even single.

    If the period is long enough without there being a flood in the critical areas, there will be very little virus underground to spread so we will just get a slight surge like our first one in 2020.

    Unfortunately there are still 1,597 active cases to resolve so it may be a while before we can really breathe easy.

    The second larger surge looks like it was the result of both the July flood from Elsa and the October one which really exacerbated the situation.

    If you look at the second surge you can identify the two floods in the change in gradient.

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  • The numbers are going in the right direction because there has been a fo us on following the protocols. The next challenge will be the more transmissible Omnicron. So far illnesses seem to be mild by those who have contracted.

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  • One of two things have happened.

    Either the GOB locked off the stop cock on Spring Garden OR the ground has dried out enough to curtail the mobility of sewage to the desal plant.

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  • You simply cannot get the numbers involved in the surges without an alternative means of spread besides airborne.

    Otherwise you would have seen surges all along the periods when the cases were minimal.

    Simple as that.

    You cannot get the same surges in four islands by airborne spread, only a complete idiot would believe that.

    The folks on all four islands would simultaneously have to decide at the same time to ignore protocols which is completely ridiculous..

    The surge in all four islands at the bottom of the chain is only explicable by the floods they all experienced around the same time.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Ditto Martinique, Guadeloupe etc!!

    Like

  • John;

    Good point, that!

    From very early on in the epidemic when I started doing the pretty charts comparing the incidence of Covid-19 in five or six Caribbean countries, I thought that there was some other factor, other than the usual ones, that caused the disease to spike syncronously across several Islands. Your suggestion of water at first and now flooding at treatment plants releasing viable Covid-19 propagules into the communities around these treatment plants, seemed laughable to say the least. For, if so, one would expect that the Authorities in all the affected countries would do the necessary testing to pin down the presence of viable virus propagules in the waste water treatment facilities and follow their presence / absence and quantities in flood waters; Follow the incidence of the virus in thorough statistical studies in the districts affected and come up with a well documented solution to what is a very important problem. So I thought that the Authorities must have data which categorically show that water could not be the problem you have drummed into our heads, especially since it appeared that potable water was not a pathway (not a vector, a pathway) and that the standard treatment protocols effectively killed the virus in treatment plants and that zoning took care of any viruses in stools and wastewater in most of the country. I therefore felt that improper Water management was not likely to be an overarching factor in facilitating and influencing spikes of the virus.

    You might however have a point. But a lot of data needs to be collected and proper investigative teamwork needs to be coordinated and done to prove that point as I suspect that no real data exists at this time to prove or disprove your thesis, despite your apparently inadequate best efforts. Once again, I would advise you to develop a coherent proposal about your idea and talk with Government and with the relevant UWI scientists to find a mechanism to get it done and, if it is found to be a real problem, to correct it.

    Like

  • @ John December 18, 2021 10:34 AM
    “The surge in all four islands at the bottom of the chain is only explicable by the floods they all experienced around the same time.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It’s truly amazing how you, Sir John, are able to massage and manipulate statistically raw data to fit a ‘theoretical’ model which suits your flood water cum Covid agenda.

    We only wish you can give similar scientific credence to the statistical conclusions reached by the international body of ‘real-real’ scientists that global warming/ climate change is a ‘real’ phenomenon and primarily caused by the industrial, commercial, domestic and transportation activities of humans over the last 200 years; especially those activities based on the burning of fossil fuels.

    But what can we expect from an enigma who still believes in the puerile version of a 6-day Creation fable which took place 10,000 solar years ago in a mythical garden called Eden or a virgin giving birth to a man-child outside the bounds of parthenogenesis or human self-fertilization.

    Like

  • Miller

    The scientists are all wrapped up in their specialised branches.

    Yesterday it was alpha, beta then delta, today it is ohmigod and jehu.

    Remember the nu variant or was it mu?

    The fact that there are rises and falls tell you that the various variants cannot be as infectious as is claimed and there has to be another explanation.

    If they were so contagious the progression would only be up and in all countries.

    The thing all these scientists miss is that this year is an exceptionally bad year for floods, all over the world.

    No wonder, it would contradict their position on global warming and droughts.

    They will not accept that the virus is also waterborne.

    The scientists have rendered themselves blind through their own arrogance.

    Best thing is to put them one side and think for yourself.

    Remember back in August I introduced the concept of gantt charts and the art of war?

    I am soon going to return to them!!

    The key to the spread of the virus is that it has an unusually long period of time during which it is potent and it has this property not by any accident.

    It can be eradicated if it is approached in the right way.

    Like

  • So lets look at Grenada and Barbados and see what is similar.

    What in this data set jumps out at you?

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  • John;
    I think you got a lot of things wrong in your 6:41 post. Will respond later.

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  • @John December 18, 2021 6:41 PM “The scientists have rendered themselves blind through their own arrogance.”

    What if it is John who has rendered himself blind through his own arrogance?

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  • John has noticed that the empirical evidence shows that the scientists are yet to get anything right and the pandemic is spiraling further and further out of control which is evident to all but the blind!!

    John’s eyes may be getting old like the rest of him him but his vision is just fine.

    Like

  • In 2021, the obvious similarity between Barbados and Grenada in the graphs is that they both start their surge in 2021 at almost the exact point in time, third week in August.

    Elsa was early July so it took about 45 days for the first cases to be identified.

    We know from the MOH that most cases were in the Sothern Corridor.

    Would be great to have them identified better geographically but my surmise is many were over the catchment area for the desal plant and fed the growth in contamination of the water it extracted.

    A vicious cycle ensued.

    Moving cases to St. Lucy and elsewhere slowed the growth which could have been like Grenada.

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  • There are a few differences.

    The duration of the surge in Grenada is about half that of Barbados.

    The rate of change upward and downward is greater for Grenada than Barbados.

    Both are explicable by moving cases as they arose to other watersheds not affected.

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  • 43 cases, one death

    There were 43 new COVID-19 cases out of 1 237 tests conducted by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory on Friday.
    Of these, eight people were under the age of 18, and 35 were 18 years and older.
    There were 185 people in isolation facilities and 1 254 in home isolation.
    A 96-year-old woman passed away from COVID-19 on Friday. She died at the Harrison’s Point Isolation Facility and was unvaccinated.
    As at December 17, there were 256 deaths from the viral illness.
    The public health laboratory has carried out 457 690 tests since February last year, and recorded 27 169 cases (12 914 males and 14 255 females) of COVID-19.
    Under the National Vaccination Programme for COVID-19, the total number of people
    with at least one dose is 155 137 (67.9 per cent of the eligible population). The total number of people who are fully vaccinated is 141 720 (52.3 per cent of the total population or 62.1 per cent of the eligible population). The eligible population represents those persons who are 12 years and older.
    (BGIS)

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  • As the ground “dries out” the cases will continue to fall.

    The level they will stop at is whatever airborne spread will support which is clearly going to be low.

    Governments the world over got this one wrong!!

    Wasted unimaginable resources following the wrong path.

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  • David; Listened to the McCullough interview just now, albiet with many interruptions. It was an eye opener as many very important points were raised . Will listen to it again carefully.

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  • @Lyall

    Will leave the scientists and medical fraternity to figure it out, the take away for the blogmaster was questioning the carpetbagging approach to dealing with who to vaccinate.

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  • Here is Germany and The Netherlands.

    Hills and valleys match pretty well.

    Perhaps one exception, red rectangle but you can see a rise in Germany’s numbers in the rectangle.

    Why …. Rivers!!

    The rivers passing through Germany terminate in the Netherlands (Nether = under, lowest level)

    Like

  • DavidDecember 19, 2021 9:53 AM

    @Lyall

    Will leave the scientists and medical fraternity to figure it out, the take away for the blogmaster was questioning the carpetbagging approach to dealing with who to vaccinate.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Vaccinations are unnecessary once Governments deal with water!!

    Like

  • … and now, to introduce a little culture …. all with a goal.

    The Blue Danube is no longer blue of course and, it begins in Germany like all the rivers that pass through the Netherlands.

    It flows south east and does not pass through the Netherlands.

    Which countries?

    “14 countries in the Danube basin are concerned by the EU strategy : eight Member States (Germany [Baden- Würtenberg and Bavaria]), Austria, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania and six non-Member States (Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Ukraine and Moldova).”

    So, what would we expect to see in these countries with COVID cases?

    Same as in Netherlands looks like for most of them!!

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  • I’ll leave the Mekong for your exploration.

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  • Dealt with the Mississippi already above!!

    Nothing as grand as the Blue Danube but for what it’s worth.

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  • A Washington state senator has died…[Doug] Ericksen died from complications related to COVID-19 on December 17, 2021, at the age of 52…a month after confirming with a local radio station he was in El Salvador and sick with Covid-19…Ericksen had previously voiced opposition toward state measures aiming to reduce the spread of COVID-19 like masking, social distancing, and vaccine mandates.
    Source: CNN

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  • Probably caught the virus from the water in Washington or El Salvador, more likely Washington!!

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  • Years ago, I saw a documentary on how countries in Europe, including Germany took water from the Rhine and treated it to a level of purity fit for human consumption.

    What caught my attention was that they used fish to warn of any excess levels of pollutants in the water.

    The point I got was as “pure” as the water output was it was not pure pure pure!!

    Some pollutants got through.

    That’s what I reckon is happening as it always has except of course this virus kills and the infinitesimal levels present are sufficient.

    Whether it is ingested by drinking or bathing through the upper respiratory tract and eyes, it gets into the host where it multiplies, is excreted and ends up back in the rivers.

    Floods just over power any systems for protection.

    Rhine or Danube, same principle, same result!!

    We know in the UK the rivers are all polluted with sewage to a greater or lesser extent.

    Same principle, same result.

    Ditto Mississippi, ditto Mekong.

    These countries could like India use some Ivermectin.

    India clearly has a method of minimising cases as do Japan and Indonesia and Iran.

    I get the impression Iran uses Hydroxychloroquine.

    For us we can only thank God no more floods … atleast for the moment.

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  • “Drinking water for the District of Columbia comes from the Potomac River. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Washington Aqueduct, a federal drinking water treatment plant, collects water from the Potomac River at Great Falls and Little Falls.”

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Google Potomac Pollution and here’s what you get.

    “For the first time in ten years, the Potomac River is more polluted than it was two years ago. … Those threats include polluted stormwater from urban and suburban areas, which is the fasting growing cause. The problem has been exacerbated by deforestation and urban sprawl combined with higher-than-usual precipitation.Oct 29, 2020”

    … for those still steepled in the Miasma Theory of infection!!

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  • “Those threats include polluted stormwater from urban and suburban areas, which is the fasting growing cause.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Whoever came up with the virus as a bio weapon knew exactly the weaknesses of their enemies!!

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  • OOPS … everybody knows the Rhine begins in the Swiss Alps!!!

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  • Switzerland and Germany, a match!!

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  • John;
    The Switzerland + Germany chart above is very interesting!

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  • Why has the Omicron variant not reached Barbados ? Luck ?

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  • @Hants

    It will, it is not something that can be hidden.

    Like

  • Critical Analyzer

    Omicron is the mildest of all the variants and will probably end up having a fatality rate closer to the flu. It will finally get us to herd immunity and end the pandemic.

    Omicron has to be here already but it is so mild it has to working silently and overtaking Delta.

    Let us have some Omicron parties so life can get back to normal.

    Like

  • HantsDecember 20, 2021 6:08 PM

    Why has the Omicron variant not reached Barbados ? Luck ?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I told you, it can’t spread!!!

    The ground is drying out.

    We got nuf tourisses from the UK and so far no ohmigod.

    I am sure one or two cases will be found but what also will be found is that it doesn’t spread, unlike the UK!!!

    In the UK the rivers are full of sewage and the water treatment plants can’t produce pure water so some of the virus gets out.

    If the Government has you locked down you are easy pickings for the virus in the water.

    Like

  • Hants boy

    I looking my eyes out for BC cases but they like they got the number locked down.

    Can only see the 789 new cases from 17 December.

    You think the authorities would hide the cases or is it just the weekend and they will be up by tomorrow?

    I can see Ontario has increased to over 3K new cases and Quebec while up is not as high as Ontario.

    Like

  • Omicron now accounts for 73% of coronavirus cases in the US, according to the CDC

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

    Like

  • lyallsmallDecember 20, 2021 4:54 PM

    John;
    The Switzerland + Germany chart above is very interesting!

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Now look on the Danube side of the Alps.

    It begins in the Black Forest in Germany and the first country is Austria, second Slovakia and third Hungary.

    All of these have experienced flooding around the same time … you can check.

    Like

  • Unless BC behaves completely differently from the rest of the world, we are going to see a huge surge in COVID cases.

    So, what should the Governments be doing?

    Working out which water sources are the most contaminated (easy if geographic locations of cases are known) shutting them down and actually looking for the virus in the water, its gotta be there!!

    They need to figure what if any level of concentration of the virus is acceptable, my suspicion is it will be zero.

    In which case any flooding with COVID still around must trigger the shutting down of plants likely to spread COVID!!

    Like

  • There were 24 new COVID-19 cases – eight males and 16 females – recorded on Sunday, December 19, from the 759 tests

    https://www.nationnews.com/2021/12/20/new-covid-cases-fall-24/

    Like

  • Nobody else in my gap has caught covid.

    Maybe it isn’t the water?

    Liked by 1 person

  • John has found a new hobby horse to ride and fortunately for him COVID19 is still with us and since the world’s leading scientific minds are still grappling with ways to combat the virus every Tom, Dick and John are free to create all kinds of scenarios to fill the void.
    John’s last hobby horse? George Floyd; how did he die? Let John count the ways: positional asphyxia; COVID; Drug overdose (fentanyl) and heart problems. I’m sure I missed a few others, but John is now fixated on water specifically floods that supposedly “spread” COVID, he has no explanation for the spread of COVID in areas that have not been visited by floods.

    Oh! I forgot the last US election when John became a US constitutional lawyer delivering daily updates on how Congress and/or the various states will overturn the 2020 Election.

    Ride on John

    Liked by 3 people

  • Cuhdear BajanDecember 20, 2021 10:27 PM

    Nobody else in my gap has caught covid.

    Maybe it isn’t the water?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The ground dried out.

    4 out of 12 is not good though, well above the national average.

    That’s how it works, just disappears and dummies will never know why or how.

    In the meantime, praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.

    Like

  • I get it Sarge.

    You just can’t face simple facts and read simple data in graphical form.

    Like

  • So here finally is some data on BC.

    2,550 new cases, tomorrow we may hear if the ohmigod variant is at fault.

    https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-update-for-dec-20-more-canucks-games-cancelled-ubc-students-will-do-exams-in-person

    2,550 +789 = 3,339

    Ontario after a month is at 3,784, took BC about a week once the increase started.

    In BC, floods started the weekend of 12th November 2021.

    When did we first hear of the ohmigod variant?

    Like

  • For the moment doubling in a matter of a couple of days.

    By Christmas (4 days) the number of cases in BC could have increased by 10,000 plus and I think I am being optimistic, the number may be higher.

    Like

  • My guess is BC is in for four months of hell.

    Like

  • Further update.

    Good graph, inside.

    Shows the reinfection of vaccinated and unvaccinated are about the same.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-dec-20-1.6292672

    Like

  • New Zealand delays border reopening to February over Omicron

    https://aje.io/7b67q6

    Like

  • Look at how Australia’s cases compare with New Zealand.

    Australia took off and New Zealand fell at the same time.

    If Australia is increasing because of the ohmigod strain how come Barbados is going down?

    Like

  • Just so you don’t run away with the idea of how good we are, take a look at how we stack up on a per capita basis with Australia and New Zealand.

    Like

  • Has the time come with Omnicron lurking for the government to follow suit? Especially to the vulnerable to the virus?

    Biden to announce plan for free at-home tests as he assures vaccinated Americans they don’t need to cancel holiday plans

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/politics/biden-covid-omicron-free-at-home-tests/index.html

    Like

  • DavidDecember 21, 2021 6:43 AM

    Covid 19 infections are generally down across LATAM and Caribbean.

    https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/regions/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Flooding stopped latter part of the year.

    Brazil is a good example.

    After experiencing floods every month till June nothing till December 9.

    Cases fell since then.

    We will have to wait and see what happens now, January will show it if it is to be.

    Like

  • Here’s a graph to set the cat among the pigeons.

    How do the US and Canada, on same continent, compare?

    Well more similar than you might think!!

    Peaks and troughs apart from the beginning are pretty close.

    Why?

    Any theories?

    I’d say its all about water.

    Great Lakes supply major population centres in both countries and they are full of the virus after 2 years!!

    Most of the rivers flowing in are by now contaminated.

    Can only get worser!!

    Like

  • Next year is not looking good for floods if these numbers are anything to go by!!

    Check this site, the earth is not warming up but cooling down!!

    There is a cycle though.

    https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

    Like

  • John; Could you look for references to viable Covid-19 virus content in water samples other than waste water? Also, what about the 2 questions Dr. GP Sir specifically asked you to address a couple weeks ago, any progress on them so far?

    Like

  • lyallsmallDecember 21, 2021 9:51 AM

    John; Could you look for references to viable Covid-19 virus content in water samples other than waste water? Also, what about the 2 questions Dr. GP Sir specifically asked you to address a couple weeks ago, any progress on them so far?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I think I have.

    I have used the characteristic curves to link floods to surges.

    BC is the perfect example and looks like Israel is on its way.

    Europe is spot on!!

    Brazil we’ll see perhaps in January.

    Caribbean Islands done already.

    Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand ditto.

    I am now to the stage of predicting outcomes before they happen.

    I’m not finding any instances where surges occur without floods.

    Two questions addressed and continually so.

    Looked for references and put what I could find up already, twice!!

    … remember the one about temperature?

    The virus stays viable in water from a couple of days to several weeks.

    Even kiki put up a good link the other day.

    Like

  • If you want an idea what will probably happen in the rest of December, January and possibly February around the world, check the oninino index and google what happened with floods 1999-2001 and 2010-2012.

    We’ve been there, done that but the last twice the virus did not exist!!

    Like

  • A total of 66 new COVID-19 cases – 30 males and 36 females – were identified by the Best-dos Santos Public Health Laboratory on Monday, December 20, from the 1,058 tests conducted.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/12/21/barbados-records-66-new-covid-19-cases/

    Like

  • For the SJWs among us (Social Justice Warriors)

    Cases by income.

    Excess mortality by income

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

    Like

  • Hants

    Barbados has dried out so cases have reduced to a level supported by airborne transmission and importation through the ports of entry.

    Good place to winter for the tourisses from the colder climes.

    May not even have to avoid hotels on the Southern Corridor.

    BC is yet to explode and I am watching Israel in the near term.

    Brazil possibly in January.

    Quebec and Ontario obviously had some flooding 4-6 week s ago close to their water sources.

    Like

  • HantsDecember 21, 2021 12:34 PM

    5043 cases in one day

    https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/montreal-mayor-valerie-plante-announces-state-of-emergency-as-covid-19-cases-skyrocket-1.5715333

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    BC hit a record too, 1308 cases in a 24 hour period.

    Prediction holding so far in BC and only a matter of days.

    Expect the 5043 cases to be easily exceeded in BC in the next few days, maybe even by Christmas, given the scale of the flooding.

    Canadians can come to Barbados now it is drying out to escape the hell that is unfolding up that side coast to coast.

    Just get tested!!!

    Vaccination entirely optional, it doesn’t stop the spread..

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8467055/bc-covid-update-tuesday-december-21-2021/

    Like

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