The world is navigating an unchartered geopolitical journey, one that exposes a contradiction in how global power is exercised without being able to resolve conflicts. On one hand, we have a protracted war between Ukraine and Russia, a nuclear power whose military actions have reshaped European (NATO) security strategy since the Cold War period. On another front, we see Israel, a nuclear state, locked in a long running conflict with the Palestinians, a people without matching military capability. And now, the United States – a global superpower – has entered a confrontation with Iran, a state that has committed to unconventional warfare. Taken together, these conflicts show a geopolitical landscape that looks less like the bipolar world of the Cold War period and more like a fragmented arena where power is selectively exerted, and smaller nations are caught in the melee. Enter Donald Trump stage left.
What stands out is an immbalance in how global affairs are being managed. Nuclear powers are engaged in conflicts with actors who cannot match them in conventional strength, yet the wars in illogical fashion go on and on. It appears the naked military superiority of the USA and Russia is no longer a guarantee of a quick victory. The Cold War had its dangers, but it also had predictability, two superpowers, East versus West, Capitalism versus Communism, with a set of ‘rules’ that both sides honoured until the end.
Enter an already volatile landscape, the stable genius of Donald Trump, whose leadership style is defined by a desire to “win” in order to project strength. His approach to foreign policy has so far emphasised negotiation from a position of dominance, and a willingness to break with traditional diplomatic tactics. However, Iran has demonstrated it does not operate using conventional tactics either. Iran’s influence is often deployed through proxies, and by utilising strategic advantages, for example controlling the Strait of Hormuz, that narrow waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply flows. Iran understands that it cannot match the United States missile for missile, but it can raise the cost of confrontation by threatening global energy markets and regional stability in a strategic area of the globe..
What all of this says about geopolitics since the Cold War is worrying -power is now amorphous which makes resolving conflict nigh impossible. We know that nuclear weapons deter wars for the most part, but do not deter conflicts that strain global harmony. Superpowers can project force, but they cannot easily impose outcomes. The other factor is how China has become the weight on the scale of global tensions because of its economic might.
The current state is that we have a global environment defined by uncertainty where every move carries us to the brink.
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