It will be worth the time to study Walter’s brief odyssey into local politics to extract learnings;
David, Blogmaster
Actuary and Social
Commentator Extraordinaire
If we are going to extract learnings, we need to look at the dots and connect them. I have reaped no success in politics to justify the writing of a book or my memoirs at this point in time, but there are a few revelations I can make exclusively on BU which would help Barbadians to understand the genesis of some incidents which extensively damaged Barbados, the lives of Barbadians, and the Barbados brand.
I do not know if this particular topic is the best place for me to start, but I am going to start. You, as blogmaster, have the right to package my writings and place them wherever you see fit.
I hope by taking this course of action that I will inspire other Barbadians who believe that they have a tale to tell to start doing so. William Skinner readily comes to mind.
The success of our oppressors stem primarily from the fact that they want to silence us and make us cower in fear. They want to make us feel that it is a sin for us to share our experiences. It is my deep-rooted belief that our shared experiences will help us to understand and appreciate each other more, and by so doing, will create a catalyst for change, however small.
These are my writings and I own them. I have attached my name to them so they are my intellectual property. I reserve the monopolistic right to use them as part of any book I decide to publish in the future.
Let me state, up front, that I have not been privy to any secrets created or held by any political party in Barbados, so it is impossible for me to divulge any. Almost all of the positions adopted by me arose out of deductive reasoning, or by analysis of events that stumbled into the public domain.
@ Walter
De-risk by shifting the over 65 obligations to one of the specialist funds, therefore taking those obligations, or bulk annuities, off the balance sheet.
It will allow greater investing in to the 45-65 yr old ring-fenced pay-as-you-go system, and the new life-long DC scheme will be for under 45s, giving the fund at least 20 years to grow. Plse note, buy-ins and buy-outs have different features.
Without getting in to details, for the under 45 yr olds, most of that money will be invested in equities, passively managed, the last five years will see a gradual shift from equities to fixed income, thereby reducing risks.
Government or the investment committee will set the asset allocation – locally, regionally and internationally – and the stock picking will be done by properly trained people.
Walter,
You are doing well here. Keep it up!
No use playing around with the devil. First you counter his lies with the truth and then you rebuke him.
Gotta let the devil know you see him! Gotta call him out by name!
At least, that’s how I’ve seen it done by EVANGELICALS LIKE PAULA WHITE!
Don’t worry, David! I’m done. He could talk chalk now. I have said my piece.
@Miller. Since there is no secondary market in Bim for government notes, that’s where the central bank comes in as a market maker. They can buy government notes from the NIS at face value or at discount for cash and thus provide liquidity to the NIS to honor its obligation. Remember, there is not limit to the central bank ability to print money insofar as it doesn’t threaten the fixed exchange system.
@Hal. Good recommendations. You need to be on the NIS board or investment committee.
Donna
November 24, 2020 8:02 PM
“Walter,
You are doing well here. Keep it up!”
Donna,
Thanks for the encouragement.
Hal Austin
November 24, 2020 6:59 PM
“@ Walter
De-risk by shifting the over 65 obligations to one of the specialist funds, therefore taking those obligations, or bulk annuities, off the balance sheet.”
Hal,
We are dealing with a highly technical subject, so I will try to keep my answer short and simple.
In 2014, the average NIS pension was $1,000 per month. There were just over 40,000 pensioners.
Conservatively, it takes about $125,000 to provide a 65-year old retiree with a monthly pension of $1,000 per month.
To de-risk and get these persons off the NIS roll, the Scheme would have to pay out $5 billion dollars. However, the Fund has about $3 billion in government paper and only $1 billion in worthwhile investments. You can clearly see that the fund cannot practically meet its obligations in respect of the retirees.
It doesn’t make sense to consider the liabilities of any other age groups.
The NIS is social insurance. It does not have the funds on hand to fully cover the liabilities of its pensioners. Therefore, it has to rely on the contributions of current and future workers to fund the monthly pensions of its retirees. To arrive at how much contributions will flow into the fund from future workers, a given fertility rate is assumed.
Barbadians are having sex for fun, rather than for procreation, so we are not keeping pace with the assumed fertility rate.
This is the reason you have recently heard politicians urging Barbadians to produce more babies, and this is why you are also hearing political talk about the need to increase the population.
@WB
according to the NIS website, as of Sept 30, 2020, the ONLY ‘investments’ remaining in the Severance Fund were Bonds
https://www.nis.gov.bb/investments-2/
Also the terms Debenture and Bond are used differently around the world. In Barbados what is the security difference between the two instruments? Note there seemed in 17-18 to be a switch from the former to the latter.
Also interesting to note the significant increase in foreign investment in the past year.
Nor have the funds been moved from the Catastrophe Fund as earlier indicated.
NorthernObserver,
I think that in Barbados, Treasury notes have maturities ranging from 1-10 years. Debentures have maturities of over 10 years. These instruments are only available from the Central Bank.
The link you sent showed how the Government took practically all of the treasury bills, treasury notes, and debentures and rolled them into bonds. This seems to be the effect of the debt restructuring exercise.
As you observed, there is no cash in the Severance Fund, and the Unemployment Fund is absolutely dry.
Could it be possible that most of those foreign investments are in the USA, and the performance of the stock market has produced sizeable unrealized gains for these investments?
I thought they said that they weren’t investing NIS in the US markets because of the volitility due to the 2008 market contractions and small returns ….or some such explanation, someone should’ve told them that small, stable returns are much better than small island minorities TIEFING EVERYTHING, where there are no returns at all….and now the fund is BROKE BECAUSE OF THEFTS and mismanagment.
Am also sure i read somewhere that ICBL, the former Bermuda owners, were the ones investing the funds, someone should ask the minister of finance about that ICBL story and how the fund got so broke under those who claim to be investing it…..better yet, ask Donville, seeing as he and they are partners in crimes against Black people on the island.
@ Walter
I accept your figures for pension liabilities in Barbados. In terms of de-risking, as you know, whether buy-ins or buy-outs, it is all about managing risks and this all depends on the quality of the negotiations and the valuations. For example, increased longevity and the low interest environment.
Negotiating that is not beyond the abilities of our leading actuaries, pension lawyers and pension accountants. Even so, our entire pensions liabilities are no more than an average major company’s.
@Walter, you also mentioned Bajans having recreational sex, rather than for procreation. I am not a bedroom policeman, but it seems you are playing the irresponsible soundtrack from the president’s call for a 80000 increase in the population. Why?
Our problem is a growth in productivity, not necessarily a growth in the population; what the president has not dealt with is the low productivity.
With 25000 state employees, she should start there. She should also concentrate on re-skilling and up-skilling the nation, making it fit for a modern technological world.
Failure to deal competently with this pending crisis could lead to the Japan problem, an ageing society, or what is called the demographic timebomb.
In a pay-as-you-go state pension system, in which the active workers pay the pensions of the retired through NIS contributions, this presents serious problems.
But there are other ways of dealing with this. One is incentivising young women to have more children, and this may include guaranteeing their career prospects, and/or by extending the retirement age, given that since work has largely moved from the factory and canefield to the office, it is not as physically demanding. Just look at the number of Barbadians who reach the age of 100.
As you know, when Bismarck created modern pensions one was not meant to spend one-third of one’s life on pensions. You retired at age 65, and was probably dead by 67.
My main concern is social, the shift in the demographic make-up of the nation; this will create serious social conflict with future generations and is a terrible legacy to leave to our young men and women. Already the reproductivity rate for New Barbadians is far higher than for native Barbadians.
By the way, someone mentioned a ban on the NIS not investing in the US. Did I get that right? Maybe they can tell the blog how the S&P 500 has performed since 2008. Is this another example of the ignorance that clouds our nation?
Hello, if you have not received the memo, we are an aging society coupled that with negligible population growth in recent years atrtributed to a growing middle class segment. The problem is here, increasing national productivity is one tactic but one suspects it will require multiple tactics given the time horizon required to move the needle. As always these kinds of decisions should be data/information driven and not delivered from the seat of ones backside.
From the time TEETS jumped out as AG pretending to put all the responsiblility on the COP for not investigating ICBL and the Donville affair, with the COP claiming there’s nothing he can do, we should have known, after finding out that they were involved in NIS and also Apes Hill…and after they admitted to bribery in the US case AND PAID A MULTIMILLION DOLLAR FINE…….that there is much more going on in Barbados with them and all the crooks involved., because THEY TOO HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO ESCAPE ANY ACCOUNTABILITY by this government…
….the ICBL players got clean away, NIS is broke, all the crooks have million dollar bank accounts, and am sure before long the new owners will change the name of the company if they haven’t already because of the associated scandal
….THE PEOPLE LOSE AGAIN…thanks to the sellouts in the parliament..
@ David November 25, 2020 7:00 AM
Then Bim is afflicted with two demographic curses.
A ‘fast’ aging population and an unacceptably high rate of unemployment among the young who are expected to produce biologically at a steady state (replacement) rate of growth to keep the NIS afloat.
Most unemployed young people are mainly destined to join the army of the permanently unemployed classified by the BSS as the “Voluntary Idle” constantly reported to be in the 75,000 and over statistical fudge category.
@Miller
All SIDS have been exposed by Covid 19, it is not just a Barbados problem. Is this not why Mia is leading the forgiveness of debt charge?
Trying to get my mind around 80,000 new citizens and 75,000 voluntary idle.
Oh I get it. Dey gun fite and kill off each udder and instead of worrying about 155,000 we wil only have 5,000 to deal with. Brilliant plan.
Murdah
Dont kill muh so early
I dedding
That 80,000 is like bait to me. It always sends me off course.
Why do you guys simplify the issue. The voluntary idle must be addressed but how does it solve the problem of infusing the market place with new skills etc? We are discussing different issues in addition to which you will not helicopter 80k people next year. Infrastructure and strategic plans will have to support such an initiative if it is ever realized.
RE we are an aging society coupled that with negligible population growth in recent years atrtributed to a growing middle class segment. The problem is here, increasing national productivity is one tactic but one suspects it will require multiple tactics given the time horizon required to move the needle. As always these kinds of decisions should be data/information driven and not delivered from the seat of ones backside.
THIS IS A BUNCH OF GOBBLEDEGOOK—–A WORD SALAD
LOT OF WORDS BUNDLED UP BUT IT SAYS VERY LITTLE REALLY…..MURDAH
ARE YOU SUPPOSED TO BE A LEADER OF SOME SORT IN BARBADOS?
GOD HELP BARBADOS
@GP
Thanks. If I had said anything the BU prowlers would have said I was attacking the chairman. He just does not seem to understand basic English. He has real difficulty with what toddlers instinctively understand. To debate we must both share an understanding of the language.
Which school did he go to in Barbados? Is he Barbadian?
HAL
WE ARE INDEED an aging society
THERE HAS BEEN INDEED REDUCED population growth in recent years DUE TO AGRESSIVE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS……NOT TO a growing middle class segment.
FIRST THE MIDDLE CLASS IS NO LONGER GROWING.
IF HE WANTED TO SAY THAT THE MIDDLE CLASS WOMEN ARE NOT CONCEIVING , HE HAS NOT MADE THAT CLEAR.
SO HIS FIRST SENTENCE IS BOTH NOT FACTUAL AND IS CERTAINLY MOST UNCLEAR—–MUCH LIKE THE RUBBISH I GET FROM MY ONLINE STUDENTS
A Hal and GP collaboration because it suits you coggers to attack the blogmaster. Too childish for old men.
“We are discussing different issues in addition to which you will not helicopter 80k people next year.”
You don’t solve a problem by ‘ignoring’ it or making it bigger.
Some of us wish to keep the helicopter grounded permanently or until a myriad of other issues are resolved – water scarcity, land theft, unemployment, the justice system, education….
We cannot just stumble our way forward and hope for the best.
Why do you assume the problem is being ignored? Some of you have already dismissed ideas being tossed out without waiting for the strategy or analysis. What is being probed is not novel. Let us ask questions, let us se the plan to support an informed debate.
@GP
That was dealt with in my submission when I talked about guaranteeing women’s careers. That is the main problem is middle class professional women, the career breaks.
I am sure the guy means well. But he cannot help intervening in discussions he does not understand, and when he does, he become unnecessarily rude and aggressive.
The so-called demographic timebomb is not something to fear, it is a challenge. Barbados is not the only country with the problem. The idea of 80000 new Barbadians is lunacy.
(Quote):
FIRST THE MIDDLE CLASS IS NO LONGER GROWING.
IF HE WANTED TO SAY THAT THE MIDDLE CLASS WOMEN ARE NOT CONCEIVING , HE HAS NOT MADE THAT CLEAR. (Unquote).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Therein lies Barbados’s biggest demographic (and future economic) problem!
The drive should not be to import more people to further burden the country’s physical and social infrastructure (and to deplete the dwindling reserves in the forex savings bank through remittances to their families in their countries of origin) but to get the large cadre ‘highly’ educated women (and men) to have (more) babies.
As Walter Blackman pointed out, Bajans (especially the majority black) have to stop having sex for only fun but also make it an exercise for ‘fruitful’ reproduction.
“A ‘fast’ aging population and an unacceptably high rate of unemployment among the young who are expected to produce biologically at a steady state (replacement) rate of growth to keep the NIS afloat.”
they don’t want to fix the unemployment problem, or the wages problem, they want to keep low or no wages in play and expect the young people to breed and provide taxpayers and voters for the society, without any assistance or benefits to make their lives and that of their children any easier….modern day slavery.
Let them import their 80,000, they will make sure most are white or other minorities, then we can sit back and watch them unseat their asses out of the parliament…,,one way or the other, those useless ignorant excuses for leaders gotta go..
RE A Hal and GP collaboration because it suits you coggers to attack the blogmaster. Too childish for old men.
NOT AT ALL SIR …….ITS THE OTHER WAY AROUND YOU LIKE TO ATTACK HAL & ME
THE TRUTH IS THAT YOUR USE AND COMMAND OF THE ENGLISH IS VERY POOR
I AM NOT ATTACKING YOU AT ALL
JUST STATING THE OBVIOUS AND HAVING FUN DOING SO
DPD IS THE SAME, AND HE THINKS HE IS SO SMART
@ GP
You have got this one right. It does not matter if you are right or wrong, it is the use of the language that helps us to understand what you are talking about.
Sometime ago I had to tell one other person that I could not understand his use of language. This is the first hurdle, then there is the discussion about the subject matter, which if it is to be educative, there must be a basic understanding.
However, if we cannot move from stage one, communicating in a common language, then we are wasting time. This is not a unique problem.
Some people say pants, some say trousers; some say pO-ta-TOES, some say po-TA-toes; some say phial, some say vial, some use obscenities, others try to avoid them.
Then there are the gotcha mob; people who wait for what they think is a mistake or a wrong answer, and instead of asking for an explanation, jump out and scream gotcha.
HAL
AS A BIBLE STUDENT OVER THE YEARS, I HAVE READ MANY BIBLE COMMENTARIES BY MEN WHO SOUGHT TO EXPLAIN THE NUANCES IN THE TEXT FROM THEIR KNOWLEDGE OF HEBREW OR GREEK. THIS HAS GIVEN ME AN EXTRA APPRECIATION FOR BOTH THE LIMITATIONS AND BEAUTY OF OUR LANGUAGE.
YOU ARE QUITE CORRECT ABOUT Then there are the gotcha mob; people who wait for what they think is a mistake or a wrong answer, and instead of asking for an explanation, jump out and scream gotcha.
THIS IS REALLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOTHING TO SAY—NO REAL ORIGINAL CONTENT RELATED TO THE CONTEXT., AND OFTERN NO CONCURRENCE
I OFTEN MOCK THEM BY COMING DOWN TO THEIR LEVEL
WHEN I WAS AGED 22, I FIRST ATTENDED A PLYMOUTH BRETHREN ASSEMBLY AND WITNESSED A BREAKING OF BREAD MEETING.. THIS APPARENTLY DISORDERLY MEETING WENT ON UNANNOUNCED , BUT VERY ORDERLY. THE SINGING OF THE FIRST HYMN SET THE TONE FOR THE MEETING. ALL SUBSEQUENT HYMNS CALLED BY THE PARTICIPANTS WERE ON THE SUBJECT OF THAT FIRST HYMN. THIS HYMN SINGING WAS INTERSPERSED WITH 5-10 MINUTE SERMONETTES ON SCRIPTURES WHICH ADVANCED THE THOUGHT GIVEN IN THE OPENING HYMN.
MEN WHO DO NOT OBSERVE THE PATTERN ARE FROWNED UPON
IT IS INTER ALIA A MOST DISCIPLINED EXCERCISE
@ GP November 25, 2020 12:59 PM
It seems that the hand of your Sky God has finally reached down to take home to Sports Heaven one of the great idols of football, Diego Maradona.
@WB
re FOREIGN investments….your suggestion is mathematically possible. It would have entailed a near complete liquidation of the prior investments in early 2020, and then a buy, post the market slumps which occurred in March/April ’20. And in a different mix (more risky). OR, additional foreign funds could have been added to that area of investments. The latter seems more plausible.
I get confused by the variety of general headings used….bonds-debentures-T-Bills-treasury notes. They are usually ALL fixed income instruments, which vary by term and security.
NorthernObserver
November 25, 2020 2:16 PM
“@WB
re FOREIGN investments….your suggestion is mathematically possible. It would have entailed a near complete liquidation of the prior investments in early 2020, and then a buy, post the market slumps which occurred in March/April ’20. And in a different mix (more risky). OR, additional foreign funds could have been added to that area of investments. The latter seems more plausible.
I get confused by the variety of general headings used….bonds-debentures-T-Bills-treasury notes. They are usually ALL fixed income instruments, which vary by term and security.”
NorthernObserver,
With respect to the NIS foreign investments, instinctively I could not bring my mind to believe that the authorities had used scarce foreign exchange to put into NIS overseas investments at this time. They did not do it when the situation was more propitious. That is why I took a long shot in the dark. Honestly, my speculative shot did not impress me, so I have now moved over to your side of the argument. Additional foreign funds might have indeed been added.
I try to simplify things in my mind by seeing it this way: Bonds (longer maturity) and T-bills (short maturity) originate from Central Government, Debentures (longer maturity) and T- notes (shorter maturity) originate from the Central Bank.
Yes, they are all fixed income instruments.
@ Walter
@Northern
Two wrongs do not a right make. The NIS is not fit for purpose and its investment strategy, or what passes for a strategy, is awful. The board/investment committee has a duty of care to the beneficiaries and that duty includes making the maximum returns on investments for the minimum risks.
The universe should be global and there should be no political considerations. If you want to see how it is done talk to the Norwegians.
Norway and the UK discovered North Sea oil at the same time; look at how the two countries invested that black gold.
@HA
in reading @WB’s comments….it has little to do with what you are alluding to…rather….the MoF has dotted line control of the NIS and its funds. It is what another blogger termed ‘interference’. I am not suggesting you are wrong, simply there is a divergence between theory and reality.
You may recall, when the issue of ‘home grown financing’ was being proposed and executed, with the NIS heavily involved, did one ever hear a peep from the Minister of Labour under whom the ‘solid line’ responsibility for the NIS fell. We can argue it isn’t/wasn’t right….but it is what it is/was.
And you have already noted prior, the rapidity at which the default occured and the preparedness. You already know the “transition” occurred well before the election. Is it any surprise the then players within the NIS were so warmly welcomed into the operations of the new administration? One hidden outcome of the time vacuum created in the calling of the last election. One side was trying to find money, the other was preparing to take over, and the operational people knew who was who.
Based on the link to the NIS investments, provided by NorthernObserver, all BU readers can now sing from the same Hymn sheet.
Here are the facts, and the questions to be asked:
The unemployment Fund is broke. Not a cent is left. No bonds, no cash. Nada. Zilch. Rien.
Where will the money come from to pay current and future unemployment benefits? Remedial action has to come down the pipeline very soon.
Government owes (i.e the politicians misused our money) $2.8 billion to the National Insurance Fund, and $0.1 billion to the Severance Fund. There is no cash in the Severance Fund. Where is the money currently coming from to pay the workers’ severance that employers are refusing to pay?
Is the law being broken with respect to the payment of unemployment and severance benefits?
The only way Government can repay the money owed to the NIS is through taxation. Who will the Government tax to get the $2.9 billion for the NIS?
The Baby Boomers have started to retire and will do so by the thousands every year until 2033. How will their retirement benefits be paid? Something has to be done very soon
At the beginning of 2015, the NIS was paying roughly $40 million per month (just think about the multiplier effect this has on our economy) in NIS retirement pensions. That amounts to $480 million per year, and $960 million over two years.
We can therefore understand what the Chairman of the NIS meant when he said: “there are sufficient funds there that we can see this through at least for the next two years.”
However, the Chairman went on to say: “So there is no cause for concern.”
Every BU reader can now look the Chairman of the NIS fully in the face and say: “We do not agree with your assessment of the NIS, Mr. Chairman. There is great, great cause for concern, and in fact, we are very, very concerned. Next time you speak, please tell us what is the Board’s solutions to the massive NIS problems we face.”
…what are the Board’s solutions
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@WB
You really need to be a little more confusing and general in your posts. We prefer entries which leave multiple possible interpretations beyond the obvious. We need to know who to blame!!!
Have anyone noticed how agreeable David is with Walter position
When i read the tea leaves of WB positions being built on a fault line of excuses for present govt
The obvious flash across my mind a disgruntled throw off neglected and rejected WB by past govt
Most of the time his responses comes across as a pathetic sissy looking for a place to rest his head
How can a man of low moral standards to be a judge of any thing
The blogmaster’s hero is MICHAEL CARRINGTON.
@ Northern
I am not sure what you mean by what I am ‘alluding to’. Don’t put words in my mouth. If you are not sure plse ask me to explain. I am not alluding to anything. I say what I mean.
Agents of change will never see their goals achieved they just pass the baton on.
From Marcus Garvey to MLK to Bob Marley their children as beneficiaries reap benefits from their efforts.
If you aim for goals that will be achieved in your lifetime then you are not aiming high enough.
10 Steps to Africa, 10 Steps to Dub
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SO WHERE DOES THE CHAMELEON DAVID COMMISSONG FIT IN ABOVE ARTICLE?