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IMF on Barbados’ 2018–19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring

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The following is an extract from the Barbados’ 2018–19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring–A Sea Change? uploaded to the IMF website this evening (21/02/2020) – David, Blogmaster

VII. LESSONS LEARNED AND CONCLUSION

Barbados’ 2018-19 debt restructuring has made an important contribution to restore debt sustainability. It has reduced public debt and put it on a clear downward trajectory. To ensure that it stays on that path, sustained prudent fiscal policy will be required. Debt restructuring can work as a policy response to an exceptional situation—while repeatedly restructuring the same debt is detrimental to market development and access, and to government credibility (see Okwuokei and van Selm 2017: p. 168).

Barbados’ debt restructuring also provides important evidence that rarely used approaches, such as the inclusion of treasury bills and a retrofitted collective action mechanism, can make an important contribution depending on country specifics, and with the support of strong financial and legal advice. The collective action clauses included in Barbados’ Eurobonds were similarly important to avoid holdout creditors.

In an age of climate change, the inclusion of natural disaster clause in the bulk of Barbados’ new public debt instruments is a critical element of the country’s financial resilience. While Barbados appears less vulnerable to natural disasters than other Caribbean states (see IMF 2019b), climate change is likely to increase its vulnerability, and a weather-related event could have a major impact on its economy.

The success of Barbados’ underlying economic reform program BERT also contains important pointers for a successful adjustment effort, including strong ownership and the establishment of a domestic monitoring team with broad participation. Other successful reform efforts in the region, including Jamaica from 2013-2019 and Grenada’s 2014-17 IMF-supported program, also used this approach.

27

Finally, successful debt restructuring is a balancing act. The right balance between fiscal adjustment and debt restructuring, and between improving public finances while maintaining financial sector stability, needs to be found. Early results from Barbados’ adjustment program are encouraging and indicate that it has been able to find the right balance. However, reducing public debt to prudent levels—the targeted 80 percent of GDP by FY2027/78 and 60 percent by FY2033/34—will require sustained efforts, not only by maintaining a cautious fiscal policy, but also by aggressively exploiting opportunities to increase growth.

Read full report –

 

Barbados’ 2018–19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring–A Sea Change?

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84 responses to “IMF on Barbados’ 2018–19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring”

  1. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    Please note that the IMF takes no responsibility for the views expressed in this working paper. The authors may be /are employees of the IMF but the paper and views expressed in the paper are theirs. Please also note that it is for discussion purposes only. It is a work in progress. It is soliciting comments.
    I think this needs to be said. Your caption may be misinterpreted.

  2. David Avatar
    David

    @Vincent

    And you have said it

    You would have noted Bert is one of the authors.

  3. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    I also notice the very cautious language and the provisos. More importantly the sustainability of this debt /GDP restructuring depends on growth in the GDP. The point which John A and I have been making for over a year. Why not institute the growth plan from day one.
    The paper also solved one of the puzzles of this large Public Debt….the inclusion of Treasury Bills. The latter are short term and were intended to bridge a temporary gap between tax measures and tax revenue…. a cash flow smoothing mechanism .There was no need to restructure treasury bills.Simply do not reissue or roll over.

    Also notice the mention of the short time lag before going to the IMF.

  4. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ Vincent

    Remember the old bajan saying you could hide and buy ground but you can’t hide and work it.

  5. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @VC
    surely you jest
    “There was no need to restructure treasury bills.”
    I would have expected someone of your training, experience and acuity, to be in wonderment as to how so much of the rational market (with those bodies under significant political control being irrational), adopted an identical strategy.
    If T-Bills had been omitted, a huge portion of debt would be missed, and the incidence of pain would have been exacerbated by those irrational investors holding Bonds and other forms of CG indebtedness, including creditors of SOE’s. [read the NIS value would have been diminished waaaay past the 10 years cropped]. T-Bills accounted for damn near a quarter of all CG indebtedness.
    Those rational investors, rather than renting a safety deposit box for their money, which was essentially the same as depositing it in 0% yielding bank accounts, opted for T-Bills, comforted that T-Bills had frequently been omitted from any restructure. Now, that money is gone, converted into those demons. Bonds, they were trying to avoid.
    What the investors in T-Bills did NOT KNOW, was how many of them had adopted an identical strategy?

  6. David Avatar
    David

    Further, the former government canvassed local entities to invest in T-Bills all in the name of helping the country in which they operate to make profits. Then again the risk is the market to bear blue chip or not!

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Some will say it is about time. Other will say we will believe it when it happens.

    Central Bank: New banking regulations needed

    Article by
    Marlon Madden

    Published on
    February 22, 2020

    Commercial banks and credit unions can expect changes to policies governing the financial services sector in the coming months as regulators seek to encourage greater financial inclusion.

    Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes gave the indication on Friday as he knocked commercial banks especially on the vexing issue of bank fees, the lack of ease to individuals accessing financing and the difficulty some individuals encounter in obtaining a bank account due to anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) rules.
    Referring to those three issues as “main risks to financial inclusion”, Haynes said having a high level of financial inclusion was key to individual and national development.
    He said while Barbados can boast of having higher inclusion levels than the global average, he insisted that it must be preserved and improved.
    Haynes was addressing the monthly meeting of the Barbados Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors at the Lloyd Erskine Sandiford Centre on Friday.
    In relation to the niggling issue of bank fees, Haynes pointed out that financial institutions often justify them on the basis of compliance costs and technological investments.

    However, stating that it had become “difficult” for the regulator to control all the charges instituted by these institutions over the past ten years when the last set of guidelines were issued, the Governor suggested that while the industry was “largely compliant” new rules were needed.
    “The ATM fees, the teller fees, the minimum balance fees, the paper statement fees, large value withdrawal fees and monthly service charges, just to name a few – these fees in a low interest rate environment create the risk that some persons may be charged more for maintaining an account than they are earning from it,” he pointed out.
    “We can then be faced with a situation where persons withdraw from the financial system either because they literally cannot afford to have a bank account or because they are not willing to, as we have heard them say, ‘pay the banks to keep their money’,” said Haynes.
    “We believe that we must, at a minimum, seek to safeguard the interest of small account holders, and we are looking at precedents set in other Commonwealth countries for addressing this precise problem. We expect to update our guidance shortly to industry,” he noted.
    In addition, he said, it was the Central Bank’s intention to publish key fees and charges of the respective institutions on its website similar to regional counterparts so that customers are aware of their options when conducting transactions.
    He also pointed out that the Central Bank would be giving credit unions access to the Automated Clearing House (ACH) network, an electronic system that facilitates financial transactions including payroll, direct deposit and other payment services.

    “The Central Bank will, in the coming months, extend access to the credit unions to the ACH or the Automated Clearing House so that they can do direct debits more directly and efficiently,” said Haynes.
    “The demand for mobile payment is increasing and new players want to enter the payments arena. While the bank continues to work on the legislative framework to guide these developments, the interoperability of systems will be necessary to maximize efficiency and encourage greater financial inclusion,” he said.
    He said while most residents have access to banking services, there was still too many strict requirements for some individuals to even open a bank account.
    He said while he understood banks were being careful to follow international AML/CFT rules, there were provisions for them to allow individuals to open accounts without some of the documents requested.
    In fact, the Governor said he saw no reason a secondary school leaver should be deprived of having an account due to the lack of a proof of address, or a self-employed individual such as a taxi operator or hairdresser not being able to access a loan to expand their operations because they did not have a job letter.
    “I am hopeful that the imminent passage of credit reporting legislation, which will provide for the sharing of information about loans, applicants’ credit history, will allow financial institutions to more accurately assess the risk of lending and set rates accordingly,” he said.

    He said: “Financial institutions need to establish a reasonable risk-based approach to onboarding and maintaining customers which includes dealing with exceptions and to demonstrate to regulators through proper documentation, how the international standard has been applied. Compliance with the guidelines should not mean that ordinary Barbadians should be deprived of the ability to open or maintain a bank account.”
    Pointing also to the need for increased financial literacy among the population, Haynes said the Central Bank would be taking the lead in that regard, and was in the process of developing a comprehensive financial literacy campaign in partnership with the Financial Services Commission and other stakeholders.
    marlonmadden@barbadostoday.bb

  8. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ NO

    Let me assure you that on matters of Finance and Economics Vincent Codrington does not jest. Rational investors? Last time I looked rationality as it relates to Finance and Economics was under the microscope.

  9. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    The G o CBB said the legislation,regulation and moral suasion process are imminent.

  10. David Avatar
    David

    @Vincent

    And the blogmaster stated that some will believe it when enacted/proclaimed.

  11. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    I apologise. I should have used ‘risk minimizing’ rather than rational.

  12. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ John A at 9 :16 PM

    Yes. Patience is a virtue. The chickens are gradually coming home to roost. It is the cost to the society that I am concerned about.

  13. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    Those foreign banks who have not yet found a buyer, are well advised to do so, pronto. There is a war ongoing, and they know it. Best to walk away with your undergarments intact, than discover, ‘the banker has no clothes’.

  14. David Avatar
    David

    Agree NO.

  15. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    And if only to underscore what Mr Vincent Codrington and John A are saying here is the final paragraph of the smartly,though one says , inappropriately named article

    “…However, reducing public debt to prudent levels—the targeted 80 percent of GDP by FY2027/78 and 60 percent by FY2033/34—will require sustained efforts, not only by maintaining a cautious fiscal policy, but also by aggressively exploiting opportunities to increase growth….”

    EXPLOITING OPPORTUNITIES TO INCREASE GROWTH…

    And now it becomes evident to ALL BARBADIANS that there is a paucity of vision and an inability to identify and then nurture the environment to increase growth

    More People waking up!

  16. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @Blogmaster
    I was in Dominica recently, and the whispers said Barbados was paying for some ‘unspecified’ (I use this term because when I asked for specifics, they were not forthcoming) public expenses in Dominica. Have you heard anything like this?

  17. David Avatar
    David

    @NO

    That would be a no. What we know is that Hartley Henry is a common person of reference.

  18. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    And Charles Jong?
    Seemed related to the ‘Loss of Ross’ or ‘Transfer of Ross’ depending upon who was speaking.

  19. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    When are we going to learn a very simple truth:
    You cannot produce a 2020 model car on a 1920 production line.
    Al we are doing is reinventing the wheel and swallowing a lot of hocus pocus nonsense. Our manufacturing sector has been in the fo drums for almost thirty years. Yet I read decently that manufacturing had declined by 12% . Question: declined from where?
    I am now hearing that the economy may grow by 1.5 %. Question: Grow from where to what?
    We have bogged down ourselves with a whole lot of feel good fantasies. We were told from the outset that our engagement with the IMF will realise its true results in fifteen years . On this very blog, I read about the magic of sealing an IMF deal in record time. Then I read on this blog that we can now advise countries how to get the best deal from the IMF. I am surprised that we did not publish a handbook: How to deal with international loan Sharks.
    I wish Ms. Mottley well but she would do well to distance herself from those who in vigorous efforts to defend her wants us to believe that our troubles can be solved overnight.
    Removing garbage from the streets only requires trucks. Removing the garbage from thinking is a bit more difficult.

  20. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ Vincent.

    Like you that is my concern in that what will the next level of “adjustments” entail in terms of cost inflicted on the populace. Then from the same mouths we hear about growth of 1.75%.

    Can’t understand how growth can come when the state and commerce fighting over the same dollar.

    So much for a successful debt restructuring when we $320M over budget in year one!

    Anyhow let the Koolaid drinkers drink. What I can tell you is what some said on BU a year ago is soon upon us. It’s just to find out now the level of whipping we will bear.

  21. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    @Vincent. Agreed. Rolling over the T-Bills would have been painless and a better strategy.

  22. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    In a low growth and relatively low inflation environment, the only way to reduce your debt to gdp ratio, is to reduce the debt( numerator) portion. This can only be done by running buget surpluses. And surplus can only be achieved when revenue receipts outstripped expenditure outflows.

    However, it is easy said than done.

  23. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @40acres
    sooo….how do you plan to ensure T-Bill ‘roll over’, and for how long? Remember, ‘the stock of treasury bills had ballooned to 39 percent of GDP’. And some of the major T-Bill holders, were also Bond Holders.

  24. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    Normally T-bills are short-term debt ( max 365 days) with low interest rate, used mainly to smooth out the lumpiness of the budget flows . T-Bills usually comprised a relative small portion of the total debt ( <10%).

    If what you stated above is true, then the whole roll-over process is defeated. Having so much short-term debt outstanding and due in a just a year’s time, creates a roll-over crisis. Exchanging those for longer-term notes make perfect sense.

  25. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @40
    you really should have read the IMF Working paper first? You are too intelligent to get caught like that.

    @JohnA
    I noted and did not know, the “legal advisors’ were the same firm, that lawyer of YouTube fame Buchheit (sp?), hails from.

  26. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ Northern

    Yes sir and you heard clearly what he thought about the whole exercise after the fact.

  27. John A Avatar
    John A

    @northern

    Small world ain’t it? LOL

  28. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    PROBLEM

    The Met Office has issued a warning to Barbadians, to brace for more drought-like conditions and increased threat of heatwaves throughout 2020.

    So serious is the threat, said leading meteorologist at the Barbados Meteorological Service Sabu Best, that if current trends continue, authorities may be forced to declare a nationwide drought.

  29. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    @Northern. Point noted. I really should have.

  30. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ John A at 11:29 PM

    Please note that Mr. B gave that talk at the forum prior to the engagement of his firm.

    @ Forty acres.

    My suggestion was that the Treasury bills be retired at their maturity,i.e not reissued. Hopefully the new taxes would have reduced the cuurent account deficit. The Treasury bills normally have a maturity of three months.

  31. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @JohnA
    he is also the point person for Venezuela.
    One wonders the sequence of hires in B’dos. Given his knowledge of ‘success fees’. “Somebody” was talking with WO long before the election. I know one of their partners [WO] had been part of the ‘Fortress’ forums in years prior, he was known in Barbados.

  32. John A Avatar
    John A

    @Northern
    @ Vincent

    Taxation followed by shortfalls so we tax further which results in further shortfalls in VAT etc only to then impose more taxes to cover that shortfall.

    At some point doesn’t somebody realise that without growth this is a doomed approach?

    We accused the last bunch about trying to tax their way out of a recession, so what exactly then are this bunch doing, not the same thing?

  33. David Avatar
    David

    @John A

    Hasn’t the government adjusted the tax bands to give back money to the middle class incomes groups?

  34. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    Will need another tax to combat drought,

    Buy desalination plants or wait for rain?

    My apologies for my interruption of your expert discourse.

  35. John A Avatar
    John A

    @David.

    Yes and immediately after that what did they do but increase taxation in other forms to take it back. Bus fares, land tax, user fees etc etc

    Basically government is no different to a business in that let’s say it takes $100 to run on. So I give back the customer a $10 in discounts on a few items but I still need $100 to run on. So unless I can take it back from them on other items I brek.

    Of course if I could grow my business I could of let them keep the discount. Ask yourself if we had a decent tax collection system and did not give away $400M in VAT receipts, do you think we would of needed to raise $400M in New taxation to balance the books?

    Government at a serious crossroads now they either have to shrink government expenditure or promote growth. The people can not take further taxation and then expect economic growth fuelled by the said overtaxed consumer base.

  36. David Avatar
    David

    @John A

    We need the UWI and Accounting houses to do a study of how the new taxes have been distributed across taxpayers. The dispersion effect if you will. Some in government will argue the university tuition was given back, road tax removed etc. the bottomline must be assessed based on net effect.

  37. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David Bu

    Some would say that road tax was increased;rather than removed.

  38. David Avatar
    David

    @Vincent

    For some like you driving an SUV and a driver of distance, yes!

  39. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ David.

    We don’t need to do all that. Anytime a budget raises more in tax than prior to it then the consumer pays.

    All the window dressing bout giving back 4 cents here and 3 cents there is immaterial, if at the end of the budget after 6 hours of tra la la the populace is heavier taxed than before.

    Growth will only come when you are given a balanced budget or a budget that at the end of the tra la la results in lower taxes to the people. That and a true growth plan for all, are the only way out for us and we know there will be no ease in taxation in the short term.

  40. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ David.

    Let me clarify what I mean when I speak to a growth plan for all. If our idea of growth will be 2 hotels and 3 guest houses that is not a growth plan for all. Unless the farmer in st Philip say, gets to sell to these 5 new entities there is nothing in it for him.

    So yes the government is pushing a one leg recovery based on hotels, but that will not encompass ALL PLAYERS in the economy. Who knows this approach may even result in the 0.6% growth the IMF spoke of, but it will benefit maybe only 5% of the populace. We need a broad base growth plan encompassing all sectors so all can benefit, not just the few maid and bartender jobs on Carlisle Bay.

  41. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    You should all relax. The IMF report is great. At least taxes are going up. So we have growth, which is growth in government revenue. The masses must be squeezed like lemons.

  42. John2 Avatar
    John2

    Who going to benefit from all the taxes on the hotel?
    Like the room, water, sewage taxes
    Some will benefit directly other/goverment/ the people will benefit indirectly
    Ever little bit will help.
    0.6 is better than 0 0r -0.6

  43. Miller Avatar
    Miller

    @ John A February 23, 2020 12:36 PM
    “Let me clarify what I mean when I speak to a growth plan for all. If our idea of growth will be 2 hotels and 3 guest houses that is not a growth plan for all. Unless the farmer in st Philip say, gets to sell to these 5 new entities there is nothing in it for him.
    So yes the government is pushing a one leg recovery based on hotels, but that will not encompass ALL PLAYERS in the economy.
    Who knows this approach may even result in the 0.6% growth the IMF spoke of, but it will benefit maybe only 5% of the populace. We need a broad base growth plan encompassing all sectors so all can benefit, not just the few maid and bartender jobs on Carlisle Bay.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The former PM Stuart (the now enlightened soothsayer with 2020 vision who has found the roaming black cat in the dark shadow Cabinet) missed the golden opportunity to put the current BLP administration on the spot by not bringing the status of his Hyatt hotel pet project into the limelight during his recent ‘tell-it-all’ exposé in St. Philip.

    The former PM had given his official blessing to the hotel construction and promoting it to be the fulcrum for the revitalization of Bridgetown and the spinning wheel for the general recovery of the comatose Bajan economy.

    He even allowed his MoF to grant duty-free concessions on a luxury vehicle to an invisible staff member even before the erection of the first slab of concrete made from imported rock-hard cement.

    What really is holding up the start of construction of that proposed economic lighthouse on the Bay?

    Clearly not the dozing giant for a PM who was fired for sleeping on the job?

    Clearly not the Lilliputian Comissiong who has been made ‘satiated’ with his oversized slice of the pie bought from the regional talk shop?

    Is the current administration waiting on the completion of the Freedom Park before granting final approval for the construction of the hotel?

    Is the MoT going to apologize to Parliament for putting his public relations mouth (with his cast-iron promise of a February 2020 start date) before that of his boss’s official nod of approval but, more importantly, before the real investors’ green light of financing?

  44. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    Bumpy road ?

    “Almost 200 workers at C.O. Williams Construction are off the job.

    Employee from the workshop, asphalt and quarries, quarries, concrete and asphalt reported to the Lears, St Thomas, headquarters around 7:30 a.m. as usual, but did not go to work.

    They told Nation News they are protesting the lack of a salary increase over the last eight to ten years.

    The shop stewards declined to speak to the media until representatives from the Barbados Workers Union arrived.”

  45. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    “PARLIAMENT CONVENING at the Worthing Corporate Centre in Christ Church will not be the only unusual happening when the 2020 Estimates Debate starts this morning.

    Also unfamiliar is the prospect of Government transitioning from one financial year to the next with the expectation of a fiscal surplus totalling more than $600 million.”

  46. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    BARBADOS
    ESTIMATES
    2020 -2021
    Estimated Current Revenue … … … 3,142,580,500
    Estimated Total Expenditure … … … 3,372,624,339
    Estimated Excess of Total Expenditure over Current Revenue 230,043,742
    Approved by Cabinet … … … February 18, 2020
    Laid in the House of Assembly … … … February 18, 2020

    There is NO surplus.
    It is 770 pages!!!!!!!
    https://www.barbadosparliament.com/uploads/quick_link/0d76bc94300703d6c23b415bebea5deb.pdf

  47. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ NO

    Is there a surplus of Current Revenue over Current Expenditure? Is it possible that that Total Expenditure includes Capital Expenditure? Just asking.

    Why is it necessary to do the narrative on the Accrual Basis and the Cash Basis when a decision was made years ago to use the Accrual Basis of Accounting?

  48. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    @ Hants February 24, 2020 10:53 AM

    In Barbados, arrogant workers are demanding higher wages despite a lack of productivity. And at the same time, C.O.W. is failing to secure a slice of the big cake from Guyana’s multi-billion-dollar investment in infrastructure. It is obvious that the island workers live on a different planet than the rest of the Caribbean. The US, Chinese, Brazilian and German construction companies that are building all the beautiful new roads in Guyana will thank them.

    Two hours by plane from Barbados, we witness the greatest economic miracle in living memory. And what are Barbadians doing? Instead of getting involved and making a profit, they complain about workers’ rights and wages.

  49. John A Avatar
    John A

    Well as a one door shopkeeper I see 2 things that worrying my wallet here.

    One is we done pass we debt service projection by $322M

    Two is that I now reading on top of that about a $200M deficit on budgeted operating expenses vs Income. That does worry me because traditionally we does spend more and collect less than we budget every year. Then you hear bout mini budget and ” minor adjustments to keep us on our revenue path.”

    Lord don’t tell me now that is over $500M in shortfall I got to look for now. Next time I go to crane for a swim I looking for Straughn to be there charging $5 for a swim!

  50. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    ” The world woke up Monday to the reality that the coronavirus epidemic is going to have a much bigger impact on the global economy than investors and policy makers had assumed. Just how big, no one really knows.

    Last week, it seemed as if financial markets believed that COVID-19 would be contained. But new cases in Italy, South Korea and Iran over the weekend undermined that belief. The World Health Organization tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying the disease was not yet a pandemic because it was not spreading in an uncontained way.

    No matter, stock markets GDOW, -2.90% SPX, -3.19% and other financial markets BUXX, -0.08% TMUBMUSD10Y, -7.51% GC00, +1.58% were quickly recalibrating the worst-case scenario, one in which hundreds of millions of people would be infected, and millions would die.”

    With all due respect to the maguffees on BU it is my opinion that Estimates and economic forecasts will have to be revised to reflect corona virus, drought, civil unrest in Canada, etc. etc.

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