The Barbados economy must grow and many have been asking where is the growth plan. At a recent Barbados Chamber of Commerce luncheon the prime minister identified several private and public sector projects expected to fuel economic activity in the short term. The Nation newspaper editor has done a fair job capturing what the prime minister shared last week.
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Gourmet sea eggs? A day late and a dollar short first there is not enough to satisfy local demand and more so fishermen in Maine andMassachusets have been harvesting sea urchins commercially for years and shipping the roe to Japan in time to add to their varieties of sushi
May i ask politely how many of the experts on this blog on the economy are economists?
@Hal. Great question? For global growth, I don’t know. However, I know for the USA it is less than 5%. For most mature and developed economy, during times of normalcy, a 3% growth rate is a more sustainable and reasonable bound.
@ Redguard
Your optimism is inspiring. However breaking into such a market entails a lot more than having chefs. We need marketing and promotional experts who know that global market. We always believe that the world is waiting on us and we can rush in and take over. Marketing gourmet foods to a global market is not an easy task. Having skills is one aspect however there are several other areas.
For example look at how the Jamaica jerk culture has taken off and now firmly established globally. We need to understand that reggae was the forerunner. There are always dots to be connected.
We need not only skills but capital for product development etc.
Not too late perhaps but a lot harder than it would have been at least twenty years ago.
However I respect your optimism.
@ Redguard February 13, 2020 3:03 PM
Thanks for your accolades. I was doing some research work under the aegis of the BIDC and local Science Innovation center here. The idea was to come with degradable packing film. I was operating out of a forty-foot container which was converted into a lab using the minimal of equipment (pH meter, vacuum/compressor, distilled water still, water-bath, microscope. scientific balance. ,oven and a refractometer) I was trying to get a degradable plastic from glucose which I did achieved. I was doing some storage test to ascertain how well the product would stand up when the whole thing was placed under the Ministry of Education, which then closed down the whole things. I still have samples of the product and as expected, there was some non-enzymatic darkening. Apart from that facet the product is still in good shape . The research was closed down about five years ago, I wrote the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Education expressing my dismay at the action (by the way I wasn’t being paid to do the work; I just did it because it is what I like doing) and stressing the importance of Barbados doing research work but to no avail.. I even e-mailed a copy of the research notes to the blog-master. These people in Barbados aren’t serious about science. I have put up proposals for developing animal rations using discarded coconut shells using continuous fermentation techniques using immobilized enzymatic techniques. There is no appreciation for science. There will be no progress as long as persons such as James Pau( who has no training in the disciplines are calling the shots).
@40Acres
So 5 per cent unemployment is full employment? You are falling for the policies of the late John Kennedy in the early 1960s, when growth became an objective obsession of government. That was a new American interpretation of Keynesianism, one that has remained with us since then. Se Kennedy’s speech at Yale university in 1962.
This thinking gave birth to Solow’s theory of growth, which was compromised by the Phillips Curve, the trade off between jobs and inflation. We now know, looking back, that the Vietnam war catapulted the US in to a decline from which it has not been able to escape. The steady state growth model was and remains a myth.
The difference between the 1960s and 1980s was that in the 60s they thought more government intervention was good whereas in the 1980s (Reagan/Thatcher years) they thought less government was good. Same ingredient, different recipe.
To cut a long argument short, Barbados can function well as an economy as long as we abandon the silly nonsense of being world class and punching above our weight.
Look at other middle economy nations and see how they do it. My old grand mother used to call it living within your means. If you earn $10 and spend $11, you are living above your means and this is a Bajan norm..
The crisis in Barbados is a crisis of ideas. Both the DLP and BLP are trapped like a hare in oncoming head lights.
.
@mrmentionbhl
You are right up to 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. It is a good start to look at the growth of South Korea and Taiwan, and analysis how these economies grew.
We also talk a lot about Singapore, but often we miss the key points of Singaporean development and the role played by L Kuan Yew. Where is our Lee?
@ David.
BERT was sold as a RECOVERY plan not a STABALISATION plan or they would of call it BEST.
You can not use the word RECOVERY and not factor in growth. They often spoke of growth in the BERT plan with utterances from both the MOF and Persaud to this effect.
The plan was sold as a RECOVERY plan and was never offered as a STABALISATION plan. In economics these are as different as night and day.
For those claiming there was growth under sinkler for God sake go and read the central bank reports for those years. The highest growth for his last 5 year reign was 0.5% for 1 year. Now mind you the central bank has never stated what the margin of difference is on their reports, so we don’t know if even that was ever achieved in the lost decade in real terms.
@ John A
The latest nonsense is that BERT was this and not that. The apologists are like that. If the economy had grown , they would have been heralding BERT but there is no growth so they must now declare that BERT has met expectations and that growth was never a part of such expectations.
They cannot bring themselves to simply state that there was no plan to grow the economy.
Have you not heard the latest: prices have risen because of the drought that pushed up the price of carrots( Mascoll). They said it was the NSRL. The NSRL was removed but prices still went up.
The Duopoly Rules
@ Hal
We will never have a leader like Lee as the ones here are too interested in the vote and not rocking the boat.
You believed under Lee a NIS could be years behind on their financials? They would not only be fired but probably In jail!
Let those that speak of Singapore go and research their laws and adherence to law and it’s enforcement. You will never see that here so wunna could forget talking about there and here. You feel in Singapore they would allow a $500M vat receivable balance to be forgiven? Jail doors would of swing there. Lol
“May i ask politely how many of the experts on this blog on the economy are economists?”
economists can never get anything right, their remedy for economic woes…raise taxes and borrow, borrow, borrow, they should criminalize that useless degree..
….Hal is just typing shite so he can admire his posts…shooting the breeze.
Wily feels sick after reading all the POLITICAL CRAP published in the so called Barbados Nation Newspaper. Does this news organization remotely know what journalism is, oh yes its the mouth piece of the present BLP government. The real issue is that 260,000 Bajans are lapping up this crap and believing same. No wonder that Barbados is known as a FAILED STATE.
If all the listed projects came to fruition it would only result in a MOMENTARY financial uptake and not result in a sustained growth over time, in fact it may well result in a more disastrous downturn. Barbados is already teetering on the cliff edge with one foot hanging out into oblivion. The present BLP Government has yet to present any medium to long term sustainable development plan which is necessary for any REAL GDP growth. Presently the government cannot sustain growth that even keeps up with inflation, otherwise know as recession. .
@ William
That comment by Mascoll was questionable. Many items now especially vegetables cheaper than when it was raining heavily. After all when it rain nuff I sure I read farmers in St Lucy had lost their entire crops. I remember well when tomatoes in the rainy times was $9 a pound and a head of lettuce nearly $6. Why just Saturday gone I pay $3 a pound for tomatoes and $3.75 for a head of lettuce.
The only drought I see is a drought of working ideas and a growth plan!
I always say if you ain t got an intelligent reply then hUsh you tail!
@ John A
Stability is only a contingent measure. It is not a policy. What happens after? Let us turn BU in to a free market of ideas and not party hackery. Get Persaud to explain his master plan.
They use the same economic models every time, then a recession hits…and repeat, anyone paying attention can predict the outcome…i was never impressed with the predictions and projections…same shit different year.
https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/243884/cdb-predicts-cent-growth
“But the CDB’s forecast of one per cent expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) is not as optimistic as the Central Bank’s 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent outlook, and is marginally above the International Monetary Fund’s 0.6 per cent economic growth prediction.”
@ Hal.
I agree with you but unfortunately enough of us don’t demand information and hence we don’t get it. Surely you recall the true cost of the debt restructuring still remains a state secret.
To me the Nation article read like an advertisement and not an analysis. What we as a people need is free and opened informed discussion on our true economic position. Who corns get mash in such a discussion so be it.
over all growth under sinckler was negative.
no one ever claimed that thare was over all growth under sinckler.
why take a five year sample to prove there was no growth?
my point is that for those two years , without a growth plan and after a few stabilization plans he had growth even with the high taxtation. – this he messed up when he pushed NRSL too high.
Prove me wrong that thare was no growth in those two years!
@ David
Yes I saw the CDB projection and it is moving in the right direction. The dark horses in our 1 legged economy will be that Virus and the effect the UK market post Brexit will have.
I have not seen figures for January yet but I can tell you many of the industry players have been reporting lower spends than last year January. They seem to be spending more on activities this year so far and less in consumables. That being said January is only the first month so that lost ground could be made up over the next 3 months.
@John A
Can you suggest what is preventing free and open discussion on any matter given unfettered access to social media?
BERT has about another two years to go, if the economy performs as predicted (as it has bes doing so far) the ecomomy can grow by AT LEAST 2% from where it was at the start of bert – this include the two negative years 18 and 19
@John2
What are the inputs to that growth?
Perhaps a life without money can be found.
@ David.
Political favouritism and yardfowlism are the roadblocks to impartial discussion.
Regardless of the data you put out there some party faithfuls simply refuse to accept it. Or they try to twist it based on some insignificant point. Failing that they turn to blind unsubstantiated claims of future miracles to come. In other words the ” how great thou art syndrome.”
One thing I can tell you is numbers never lie. But that doesn’t mean you cant lie about numbers.
I simply ignore those serving their party loyalties and stick to those capable and will to discuss reality free of prejudice.
Then you have the sheep and Koolaid drinkers who follow and believe everything and are void of independent thought, even though they have benefited from free education.
Having said that thankfully they are still enough willing to discuss matters in a real world scenario, so all is not lost.
in other words, if you don’t agree with john A you are quickly label one of his descriptions etc
or he makes a comment to disagreement he quickly pull the political card.
to ward off disagreement
“the economic growth rate increased to 1.6”
Bring the report that said the highest was 0,5 in the last 5 years !
Well look at this thing do nah! I ain’t call a fellow name and just so somebody fly up on the defensive!
Look like Bob Marley was right when he sing ” who the cap fit let them wear it.” LOL
Anyhow I going leave this with you and go and get little dinner.
ONE SONG DOTH NOT A SWALLOW MAKE.
That was not Marley though. Lol
David
The same way we had some under Sinckler even with all the other government financials all over the place, I don’t see why with better government financials we cant get some growth this year and next.
Don’t forget in 16 and 17 government was coming to the end and there was a lot of negativity in nearly everything in the country.
look even last year we moved from like -0.5 % growth to -0,1%, We even had growth (don’t mind how minor) in q4, without any growth plan and no major construction. that tell me the economy is heading in the right direction and is only a hair breath away from positive growth.
what we have to do now is sustain and build on that .
I know you looking for me to give reasons like investor and consumer confidence and the we gathering
@Hal. Sure, the 5% unemployment rate is purely theoretical on my path. I agree with most of your historical assessment on the subject. The Phillip curve has been discredited since the 70s with the advent stagflation. Yet, to this day, still a lot of central banks around the world incorporated it into their forecasting model.
@John2
Not looking for a generalization. Where did the growth come from under the Sinckler/Worrell unforgettable years.
Go bring the report that said the highest growth for the last 5 yrs of sinckler was 0.5% in a single year
You don’t have to call a name. I am the only person on this topic (and maybe on this blog) that does admit that sinckler had some growth..
I am not on the defensive, I am on the attack. You defensive stroke is to run and get your dinner.
All those countries that created sustainable long term growth had an educational system geared to building an economic foundation having programs which equipped the students with higher level of entrepreneurship and advance academics whereby the student upon leaving school not only have and interest in becoming a professional but was fully equipped to build a bridge between a need for self empowerment which help to create a climate for productivity and financial stability for self and country
Barbados is million years behind in achieving such goal
Hence the talk of economic growth would remain just talk until barbados education system gets the ball rolling
The technocrats and so called intellects have this country all screwed up because of their own self interest
Time to go back to the mom and pop days when an older generation understood the key of self empowerment
David stop playing wid me man!
According to the CB , growth was due mainly to an increase in 2016. that the only I can tell you now.
david
as I said before. overall growth in the 10 yrs was negative
Look I am not a fan of sinckler but facts are facts he had some years of growth and some of negative
give jack his jacket.
IMO
He was learning on the job and coming on to the end he was getting to figure it out a little.
He ran out of time cause the election was coming up so he was trying to accommodate for that and at the same time he probably was preparing to go to imf after election. Well we all know what happened.
good riddance
@ David.
Let me tell you why under the sinkler years growth is not worthy of discussion or wasting further time on.
During those years an unprecedented amount of money was printed and funelled into the economy which created a grossly overstated economy. When Mia got in she had to “remove” that false surplus from circulation. The debt restructuring and fall in interest on bank paper did that to a large extent. Now remember when we speak of removing surplus paper from the economy we can’t burn it, because it already has an owner. What we do therefore is restrict its potential to further inflate a false economy. So the person that was getting 7% now gets one, the bonds maturing next year say get pushed back ten years etc.
So we have to decide what was the growth made under Sinkler in real terms? In other words if we were printing $50M a year for 3 years we put $1.8 billion in unsupportable paper into the economy and we got back little to no growth. At this point ask yourself what do you think true supportable growth was over his reign?
Truth is this MOF had no choice but to shut down the printing press and then realign the supply to a sustainable economy. The failing I see is that they thought this could be done by austerity and taxation through BERT. At no point was growth focused on. So it’s like a store with a fall in sales trying to right the boat by cutting expenses only and not trying to increase sales at the same time.
Don’t waste time discussing growth in sinklers reign cause you are basically trying to measure the return on a PONZI scheme that has now come home to roost.
@John A
The exchange with John2 was to bring him to a Christian understanding but you hurried to the end. The talk about growth during the Sinckler period is political fluff talk about a statistical insignificant event along with the false environment you vividly outlined.
@ David
My friend I am not blessed with your patience my apologies.
What we need to look at now is how long will the rebalancing take without growth. We have tried using only taxation and austerity with no success in terms of growth. We must now include a growth plan while tightening up on our money pits which would in turn slow the outflow.
ok good to know that the growth the shoot up in q4 last year and the future predicted growth will be “real” growth .
he said FOR GOD SAKE GO AND READ THE CB REPORT. I posted the CB report to prove my point. now Mr Shifty talking bout non real growth/ a different story …… stupes
Still waiting for the report that said the highest “non real ” growth was 0.5% in one year only
February 13, 2020 7:34 PM
David stop playing wid me man!
According to the CB , growth was due mainly to an increase in 2016. that the only I can tell you now.
CORRECTION
Growth was due to an increase in tourism in 2016
The silence on the Hyatt is deafening
Which begs the question how much unemployment can barbadian households afford
At the same time while PM is telling barbadians expect joblessness an open door policy for skilled Caricom workers has been extended from this govt
Does govt really expect that skilled workers would come to barbados after hearing the latest joblessness news coming form the govt
People seek greener pastures not drought whither grass
Your assistance please with an item Honourable Blogmaster
For the liars who purport that BERT was ONLY A STABILIZATION STRATEGY here is a comment from the BERT PRESENTATION
“…Growth strategy
Within the 26-slide presentation, only one slide was dedicated towards growth measures. Government is proposing five pillars of growth; (i) invest in a high-skilled knowledge-based economy, (ii) better mobilization of private domestic savings for investment, (iii) Government to become an enabler of growth, (vi) continued support of the economy’s mainstay of tourism and international business and, (v) diversifying new areas such as renewable energy, high-tech and software development…”
Wunna must get real vex when people can google digital evidence of wunna RH lies!
That is why dumbass Hal, who spent decades in UK paying off slavemasters who enslaved his own ancestors, the most deserving negro who ever existed of that particarly british crime…hates google so much. Ya can’t make up shite just to look pretty in writing when google is around.lol
Does PM Mottley think Bajans to be fools? A government agency sells a piece of land to a developer for $4 million. The developer encloses the parcel of land but
“During a recent address, Prime Minister Mia Mottley criticised the decision to erect a fence noting that “Bajans who want to go to the beach used to park there, and they cannot be prevented from going on one of the most magnificent beaches in Carlisle Bay, because a fence is there”.
@barbadostoday.bb
The fence was removed and replaced with a chain. The public will have easier access however parking is still largely restricted. This is a similar to Blue Horizon deal when the public learned after the sale prime beach front land was included.
The blogmaster invites you to join the discussion.