July 2019 saw at least two murders taking place in Barbados (32 for the year so far). Both of them took place in in St. Michael. The victims were male and died as a result of gun and knife related violence. The data was collected and compiled based on available media reports at the time. See below charts for additional details and analysis.
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@ David
you seem surprised at the death toll. Anyone following trends would not be. Barbados is a de-facto trans-shipment point for drugs. Throw into the mix a corrupt elite, and to mix add a seemly incompetent judiciary and a high degree of unemployment among young men, the out come is obvious. The unemployed need to live like others and therefore drug peddling is a means of making a living with all of its consequences.
Reading the stats the last 3 months have settled to compare with first 3 months. Do we know the reason? The COP publicly voiced his men have wrestled the problem to submission.
We will see. We tend to focus on enforcement at the expense of the preventative.
@David
These are parish counts of where the victims(s) died or were killed I suppose. What would be an interesting statistic or fact would be where the person resided or lived before being killed. That number can also be overlaid to show how homicides are distributed.
Losing a loved one to murder/homicide is not something anyone who is rational or sane will put on their to-do-list. However, for 32 families and their associated friends’ network, it is something they have had to deal with.
We know that there are mental and physical trauma associated when a person is involved in an accident. The family and friend network get impacted. In the back of our minds, we know that persons die. Just look in the Sunday Sun and you will be reminded at least once a week that death is a part of being human. However, even when the old person in the family dies; we may say well she/he had a long life, but dealing with the finality of death is still hard for many.
Now take all of the above and impose that on the family & friends network of a murder victim. A victim that by averages had a good number of years remaining on the planet. All I am saying is that with these high and maybe increasing homicide numbers occurring, we are going to have many members of our society suffering from the emotional and mental impacts for years to come; and that fact will be measurable at some point in the future, and it will not be a positive statistic.
The blowback will be silent, persons often suffer in silence. The impact of society will be measured in a small way but across many persons. The more person we kill the larger the impact on the society. We need to be careful; all involved, the medical, social media; those now yet impacted and law enforcement need to understand that we need to reverse this homicide trend. Consequently also reduce the suffering of the silent few(for now) that we know little about, and seriously hope/pray not to join their ranks as either a family member or friend of a victim.
David your rhetoric implies a sense in comfort to what u states as a”settled”
Your reasoning of “settled”is somewhat baffling when the reasons for these crimes are left not fully address
Crime or not, that is not what is and will continue to kill the economy.
What is killing the economy is the total lack of efficiency and speedy work in both public and private sectors.
Anyone who has dealt with the local legal and registry system here, or the private financial institutions here, has been through the wringer. It is terrible.
LACK OF SERVICE is what is killing business and hence the economy. A total, xxxxpoor lack of service.
Between the corruption and the lack of service, strange as it may sound, the crime takes a distant backseat to killing the economy. Sadly, it is killing people, but not the economy, as the first two are doing.
Barbados needs new financial institutions, a new model for business service.
@SirFuzzy
Good critique, Amit is following and is willing to build on his info gathering once available.
@Amit
One imagines to collate the additional data will mean visiting multiple sources where the primary data is scattered?
Age, gender, cause of death, employment and educational status, marital status and circumstances surrounding death (ie argument, drive by shooting, gang-related, etc) , type of area (residential, commercial, work place, Heights, Terraces, etc), previous involvement with crime – and the population of the parish. A good study in the epidemiology of crime.
@ David BU
So now you are into Data Mining. Just a reminder that Data do not speak for themselves. What is your hypothesis? Could it be the rising temperatures due to Global warming? How about widespread dissatisfaction with things as they are?
Good start all the same.
@Vincent
Not data mining, data design.
Understanding the environment we have to exist is a never ending undertaking.
@ David BU
You were hoping that the data you posted would yield a pattern that would clue you into what are the causes of the apparent upsurge in homicides. That is Data Mining .
St. Michael has the largest population by far.
In addition, it is the centre of all cultural activities.
That less than half the reports of murder are from St. Michael is therefore unremarkable in itself.
That 26 are reported in the St. Michael – Christ Church – St. Phillip crescent may be more statistically significant.
@Vincent
The article posted is from fellow blogger caribbeansignal.com, you do realize?
@ David BU at 9 :32 AM
Thanks for bringing the source of the article to our attention. We assume that any article posted on BU has your endorsement. We will be more careful going forward. We tend to pay more attention to the head of the submission where it states by David. Are they a subsidiary of another Analytica corporation?
@Vincent Codrington
If by “they” you mean caribbeansignal.com, the answer is no, it is not a subsidiary of Cambridge Analytics (or any other firm for that matter).
I am the sole owner of the domain and the blog. The murder stats I compile are just one area of my independent research interests. The reports also satisfy my general interest in data collection, analysis, identifying patterns (if any), et cetera.
I’ve also collected, compiled and published data, via the blog, on the following:
1) Retail fuel price data for Barbados (circa 5 years worth). Useful for some consumers and businesses.
2) Gender diversity across board of director’s for certain Caribbean companies.
3) Full details on Barbados 2018 election results as well as data analysis on past elections for same.
Cheers,
Amit.
@ Amit at 10 :36 AM
Thanks very much for the assurance. Good use of your time. I wish you many years enjoyment in the field of Data Collection and Analysis. We are into the Era of severe disruptions and I am wary of using past data to understand the present and project the future.
@Vincent
All the more reason why historical data collection and analysis of that data is important read regression analysis?
@ David Bu
Not too useful when there is disruptive change. It is precisely for this reason that there is a greater concentration on Probability Statistics a la Bayes. Many of us try to keep ahead of the curve but not too far ahead.
@Vincent
Understand at best it represents a baseline amid the uncertainty.
@ David BU at 11:04 AM
I agree it is a good place to start. It has didactic value.
Even armed with the best data and technology predicting crime trend is not a complex exercise. Criminal behavior in general is a local phenomenon with all its cultural nuances. You can have two countries that suffer from the same crime-inducing factors (eg. high unemployment, corruption, weak institutions, high poverty rate etc) yet the outcome is totally different. One is relatively peaceful and the other one becomes a violent nation.
Why is Indonesia( the largest muslim contry in the world) murder statistic is so low compare to Brasil or even the USA?
correction. predicting crime trend is a complex exercise.
@Vincent, your remarks on data are a bit confusing !
We always have to look at data to make sensible interpretations of life before us. Yes of course, analysers can and deliberately make very misguided extrapolations but how or why can the careful study of life’s data NOT be reviewed or mined for possible correlations/links!
These murder stats say no more than what is presented: how many people died of violent, criminal causes (murder) and where those deaths occurred.
Realistically NO useful hypotheses can be derived from that raw data but with added inputs some hypothesis can be formed and expanded to inform actions!
A friend was telling me recently of the continued exploding murder rate in TnT (now some 300 she said)…this comes in the wake of over 500 murders there in 2018. Surely they have been analyzing and mining their stats for years now and just as surely have FAILED to resolve the root causes they identified.
Is that the fault of the analysis/mining or as you noted a problem of badly “…using past data to understand the present and project the future”!
My concern with your thrust focuses on our critical need to collect and mine data AS best as we can…it will not be the cure to the issue or provide all the details needed but it MUST be accepted as very helpful…
…thus the way climate change data is manipulated on BOTH sides is ridiculous: Its maddening to have ignorant sounding ideological naysayers dismiss all science just as it’s incredulous that believers dismiss the natural aspects of change that are not directly related to over-use of fossil fuels!
We have to carefullly and often laboriously mine data to find correlations…(remind the FBI of that pre 9-11) and we must properly treat the results before make grand presumptions!
I gone.
What a disgrace. As soon as the government has once again successfully solved a problem, the opposition comes out of some holes and recycles the old issue of murder rates.
Believe me, Barbados is safe as long as you don’t live in the slums around Bridgetown. I’ve never heard of anyone breaking into a Sandy Lane villa.
How about praising the government? For the rand debt cut, for example, or the dismantling of the civil service?
Tron
– fair and balanced –
@Tron
The factors driving crime in a country is multi fanged. Leave your argument to the political zombies.
@Forty senor that sounds like a very false equivalent …re: “Why is Indonesia( the largest muslim contry in the world) murder statistic is so low compare to Brasil or even the USA?”
Your bracketed comment (which you quite properly provided) has the absolutely most critical reasoning to answer your query. THAT variable creates the false equivalency…
… if you cite two heavily orthodox Muslim nations with vastly differing crime stats given the same underlying factors noted then there is a debate or on other hand two non-theocratic governing nations !
The caribbean high murder rate statistic is a paradox when you compare the socio-economic data of the region with other less develop regions of the world. Just look at Trinidad and The Bahamas. two of the weathiest countries, outside of Canada and the USA, in the hemisphere. Yet, they happened to have a relatively high per capita murder rate. However, we know that it more than just socio-economic factors that are at work here.
I remember the days when New York City (NYC) was the murder capital of the USA. 2000 murders per year was the norm for the city. Then gradually, starting from the mid 90s,…. the NYC MIRACLE happened. Now NYC is the safest big city in the USA and among the safest in the world.
The past two years, NYC has recorded less than 300 murder for a city of 8 million people. IMPRESSIVE! This give me hope for our people in region…our own caribbean crime miracle.
I see other have comments on a number of analyses. I hope you don’t torture the data to meet their suggestions. However, there are a number of additional diplays that you can show.
Line graphs (step functions) for all parishes: All parishes can start at zero and with month (0-12) on the horizontal aaxis. You can increment by one whenever a murder occurs. The plot would be a bit confusing in the early months but the parishes should separate out early on the year as those three parishes are the main hive of activity. By the time you get to April/May the parishes should separate and you will have just three of four lines..
A next trick to separate the parishes is to stagger the plots. but I think
Some have indicated that the one should take the population of the parish into consideration. One way to get around this is by showing the cumulative number of murders in each parish per ten thousand inhabitants in the parish (since most parishes are around 10,000) and then show as a barchart. with all the parishes on the same chart. The zeros will remain as zero and the other parishes would be adjusted to per 10,000. All numbers are per ten thousand.
if the population of st Michael was 50,000 then we would have 10000*(14/50000)=2.8;
You should play around but keep it simple.
Don’t get entangle in the political verbiage. Just present the data and let the wordsmiths and political operatives spin what they like. Some like your presentations because they are spin-free
@Depedantic. Okay, fair enough. I only inserted the muslim part purely by fact and not for emphasis in the comparison. I was looking purely at the results (murder statistics ) of two countries that more or less suffered from the same socio-economic deficiency (eg Brasil and Indonesia) or two countries at the opposite end of the socio-economic spectrum ( Indonesia vs USA).
Basically the bottom line is who would tackle this gorilla
Yes data is important .however the fear that lives in the minds of people is equally important
Guns and drugs are the starting point
Without guns and drugs their would be no need for all the fancy data
Lets start by gathering the data which is causing the problems
Like how many ports have easy acess for these guns and drugs to enter
Who are those have the financial resources to bring them in
Govt implemting a plan a financial reward for those who have information
You are aware the prevalence of guns is scarce in Britain but it has not prevented murders? The preferred weapon is a knife.
Borders have to be protected but it does not address the systemic problem.
We have to work to ensure our families do their duty to reduce parental delinquency.
Our governments work hard to create opportunities for individuals to realise economic prosperity.
That there is a strong safety net to protect those who fall short etc etc.
It is a complex issue that cannot be addressed by simplistic recommendations stoked by political biase a la Trump.
@ MARIPOSA
Govt implemting a plan a financial reward for those who have information
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
NAILED IT
Indeed Barbados jumped off to a horiffic start during the month of Jnauary. It would be wise to attempt to understand what was happening during the period the months of December, January, February, March and April as we do want to be singing from the same hymnal in 2020..
@$!!!&**$ typos
Indeed, Barbados jumped off to a horiffic start during the month of January. It would be wise to attempt to understand what was happening during the months of December, January, February, March and April as we do NOT want to be singing from the same hymnal in 2020..
@ dpD at 12:00 PM
My intervention that data do not necessarily speak for themselves; but are useful in accepting or rejecting null hypotheses is intended to make the presenter and reader think. I also pointed out that when there is a sea change in a social system or phenomenon under research past data is not very useful. So yes it is confusing a sign that you are thinking . The objective has been achieved.
You are quite right when you cited the 9/11 event. That changed our concept of the war theatre did it not? So all I am saying is that the past is no fool proof indicator of the future.
But I think you covered all the areas perhaps more comprehensively than I did.
The following IADB report was referenced in earlier submission. Although dated 2106, it identified trending that presented early warning. We have been caught as a country with our pants around the knees because WE fell asleep on the job. All of us.
Here is the LINK.
@David. All the UK homicide knife crimes for the past two years pale in comparison to gun homicides in say Chicago. It only takes one person with a gun to commit varying degree of human massacre. And it can be accomplished from a relatively far distance.The Knife doesn’t possess those advantages.
@fortyacres
The reference was to make the point if deviant behaviour exist the weapon available will be used. It was not to ignore the violence of the gun as we are saw recently in El Paso.
How come BU total 32 murders and the local media records 33
Mariposa counts the two babies which were murdered by their fathers which bring my count to 35
Also Mariposa awaiting the cause of the fiery death of a man and his mother
Nothing in my book of details is left to chance since this govt already shown that they can be ridiculously not transparent and use the media to cover up stories from the public
The knife is an up close and personal tool of killing. But it is lethal. I the USA, the land of many guns another massacre or mass shooting has been unleashed. 29 dead in two separate venues. The weapon of choice the gun. It was even reported that in one incident the length of time was under two minutes, but so many were killed. Just imagine if the shooter had more time and/or more ammunition. There is much more to be learned as to why a person chooses to commit murder. I know for sure it is much more than economic or social circumstances to be blamed if you needed to actually blame someone or something..
Just my take
Not just a gun, a semi automatic.
@Mariposa
BU’s count, in the context of this blog post, is based on my monthly count which at the end of July stood at 32. However, it is in fact 33 as you commented, as there was a stabbing in August.
I also wondered about the tragic deaths of the father and his two children in July. However, unless I see something in the press clearly associating these deaths with murder/violence, I will not include them. Same goes for the fire involving the man and his mother. Of-course, others are free to include them in their own counts.
Cheers,
Amit.
Waiting for local authorities after almost three weeks of any official cause of murder for the fiery death of the babies is foolhardy
As local authorities in the first day of investigation stated that the deaths was an apparent suicide which included the deaths of the babies
So far local authorties have not changed that statement
Which should give reason to conclude that the babies death was due and in part of negative actions by the father
What i do perceived is that govt officials takes upon themselves to resort to the silent treatment a treatment which gives them enough time to hide any more details from the public
These babies were murdered when the father took it upon himself to commit suicide along with killing the babies in a revengeful manner
Until any other explanation is introduced or given for these babies death
These babies would be count as 2 additional murders in barbados murder toll
@Sirfuzzy. Like your analysis. Couldn’t agree with you more. That’s why I am a big fan of the field of epigenetics and violence. Epigentically, a society that has experienced constant trauma, ends up becoming a violent society in my opinion.
@fortyacresandamule
A good word.
ep·i·ge·net·ics
/ˌepəjəˈnediks/
Learn to pronounce
noun BIOLOGY
the study of changes in organisms caused by modification of gene expression rather than alteration of the genetic code itself.
Most of the people that are being done wrong Lives in St. Michael so the Pressure is great, All the NHC , UDC victims are in this area,So keep thinking Land Fraud has nothing to do with Nothing, As the bodies pile up, Keep Watching much more to come, As the Crime Minister suck the nation dry deeper into PONZI Fraud with her greed for the greedy, People has no Self Worth, The BBLP and DLP want them never to own anything and rent from the government for Life,BFP ,,,
@David, @SirFuzzy, comments and suggestions noted, I will look at how best to incorporate same maybe in next report and/or include retroactively.
@TheOGazerts, thanks for the feedback. Rest assured no torturing of data here in the murder reports. Observe, collect, sort, and then report only.
@VincentCodrington, thanks for the feedback as well.
@Mariposa, I understand and respect your view.
@Amit August 5, 2019 6:12 PM “However, unless I see something in the press clearly associating these deaths with murder/violence.”
i passed there not ten minutes before the news broke on the radio. I pass there virtually every day, sometimes driving, sometimes walking. There is evidence of a great deal of violence at the site.
@ forty acres etc at 7:00 PM of 5/08.
I agree with your analysis. Violence begets violence at the individual and social levels. So we need to dig a little deeper into the data to find out why and how. Thanks for adding to our vocabulary. I get the feeling that there is a lot of suppressed anger in our society. We should take preventative measures early and avoid policies that add to them.
@Vincent. ” I get the feeling there is a lot of suppressed anger in our society”. Bingo! Looking beyond the traditional socio-economic factors is very crucial.
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