The Mia Mottley government forced a debt restructure on locals holding bonds. The government boasted about the speed it was completed although truth be told it was a Hobson’s choice.

On the other side of the debt restructuring transactions the external bond holders have so far been nettlesome at the negotiating table. Approaching 18 months and there appears to be a stalemate in the negotiation. The Mia Mottley government has been unable to deliver on a promise that the debt restructure transaction would have been closed by now.

Senior members of the BU family have taken umbrage to a recent comment by one of the government’s financial advisors Avinash Persaud.  Here is a pertinent quote.

What we have been trying to do is to get the best deal possible for Barbados, which means that it can’t be the quickest deal possible. If you play poker do you fold early? If you don’t need to borrow for four years you have a good hand. So, we are following the right strategy – No backing down

The blogmaster must agree at the idiocy of the statement when viewed through the eyes of a good poker player.  A good poker player will fold based on the game situation. It does not have one Rh to do with early or late in the game.

The blogmaster appreciates there is an element of table craft that will be exercised by actors sitting around a negotiating table. One must however critique the judgement of Persaud to feel embolden to have issued such a statement at this juncture in the negotiation.

Despite a bevy of officials recruited by the government with job descriptions to cover finance, communications, public relations and media liaison –  the public is left to speculate as to the current state of negotiations with the external debt restructure transaction.

Given the perilous state of the Barbados economy and the time it is taking to close the debt restructure deal with external creditors – the more aware citizens excluding the yard fowl variety – have started to examine the increasing downside risks threatening the Barbados recovery program. The blogmaster counts himself among those who is now very concerned that the high price White Oaks team has been unable to resolve the wedge issues.

It is time to go to plan B.

Do we have a plan B?

 

322 responses to “Does White Oak Have a Plan B?”

  1. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    yall got some damn nerve…ya have no scruples, you are dishonest, you steal from your own people, you sell them out and want to get your hands on people’s organs, which idiot thought that was a good idea, i would like to know.

    https://gisbarbados.gov.bb/blog/organ-transplants-to-come-on-stream-soon/?fbclid=IwAR2TvtjG0aYhfDltZdYAXcK7qcszxX4iD-enJo7Zg8gwLuiPQL2Gm7oAALw

  2. Georgie Porgie Avatar
    Georgie Porgie

    RE I enjoy the Anglican music as found in the singing of the psalms,canticles,hymns and anthems and carols.Still do.Mine is the ministry of music.

    WELL IN THIS DAY YOU CAN FIND SO MUCH OF THIS GENRE ON U TUBE FROM THE ANGLICAN COMMUNION ALL OVER THE WORLD—THE UK, BAHAMAS, GHANA. NIGERIA, NZ ETC

    JUST TYPE IN THE FIRST LINE OR WHAT EVER YOU CAN REMEMBER AND USUALLY SOME SWEET JUICE WILL COME UP
    BRINGS BACK GREAT MEMORIES OF MY SIX YEARS AT CH CH CH CHOIR
    IN SOME OF THESE HYMNS, THE PARTS ARE AS SWEET AS THE TUNE
    THANK GOD FOR UTUBE


  3. I recall when we had WIBS broadcasting from Grenada and Dominica and on Sunday afternoon at 4.45pm was choral evensong.Our household always tuned in.After WIBS stopped broadcasting one got the Sunday Service on BBC at 6.30am and Sunday Half Hour of community hymn singing at 4.30p.
    With the coming of the Information Age and the world wide web it is so much easier to access Choral Evensong again live on BBC radio 3 on Wednesdays from a Collegiate College or a Cathedral.In addition St John’s College Cambridge has a Webcast where you can access live Choral Evensong with about 10 different occasions posted.I prefer Kings College Cambridge of course and St John’s College both for excellent organ and Choral performances.Stephen Cleobury just retired from Kings after 37 years and was knighted in June for his contribution to the music of Kings.Recall he brought his choir to Barbados in 1999 for a recital at St Michael’s Cathedral which was packed to capacity(1600) at $100.00 per person.Cleobury said after that tour to the Americas that Barbados was the high point of their tour.

  4. Georgie Porgie Avatar

    THE SINGING IN Sunday Half Hour of community hymn IS VERY GOOD!
    KINGS HAS BEEN MY FAVORITE CHOIR SINCE I WAS A BOY.. BUT MOST UK CATHEDRAL CHOIRS ARE GREAT.
    BUT THIS IS NOT BY ACCIDENT..THE TRAINING AND DAILY PRACTICING IS REALLY GOOD. IT IS A MATTER OF DAILY LIFE FOR THE BOYS IN THE CATHEDRAL CHOIR SCHOOLS.

    THE ST LEONARDS BOYS CHOIR IS SOMETHING FOR US TO BE PROUD OFF AND SO IS KINGSTON COLLEGE CHAPEL CHOIR IN JAMAICA

  5. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    Just in case bajans forget the acts of wickedness by this Mugabe Regime here is something to remind you

    http://imgur.com/gallery/PlZGQru

  6. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    The question has been asked.

    Where is plan B?

    Plan B is to change the four sides wheels on this Bert cart Mugabe is pushing to wheels with 3 sides.

    So wunna asses better buckle down and enjoy the economic buck Wild tide Mugabe is going to tek this economy for.

    3 more years of more economic “bulling” by Mugabe

    And once you have become accustomed to pineapple textured inserts Mugabe will introduce smooth baseball bats

    AND ALL BAJANS WILL SAY “MUGABE is so sweet. She trk out the big prickly primplers out my pooch BUT USING SOMETHING SMOOTH NOW – a baseball bat!!!

  7. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    Here is plan B

    http://imgur.com/FTR7JMN

  8. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    And even while Mugabe continues to blame the Fumvles administration, her regime continues to do the very same thing big Sinks was doing weekly

    FLYING ROUND FIRZT CLASS!!!

    http://imgur.com/KcjZYax


  9. Dear Legend,

    Your populism is only surpassed by Boris Johnson. Why are you crying about a debt cut that only affects worthless paper anyway?

    The cut for debt in Barbados dollars was right and good. But the government should have spared the banks and reduced the other debts even more (for example pensioners and NIS, because they are not important for the economy).

    If it should be necessary for the international negotiations, we need a second cut for the debt in Barbados dollars. We still have a lot of room for manoeuvre here.

    Of course, mass layoffs of civil servants are also a good and fair option. They had a sweet life for 50 years. Let us make it a little Chinese sweet-and-sour.


  10. What does White Oak negotiating a deal with the external creditors have to do with BERT? The outcome will impact the effectiveness of a BERT implementation but the mechanics to determine a win win outcome is dependent on an independent process(Quote)

    What is this in plain English?.


  11. Let me repeat, Grenada’s SDR started in April 2013 and ended in October 2015. Exim Bank of China sued in March 2013. Grenada suspended debt servicing and also entered into an IMF programme. Their economy has grown 5% on average for the last 5 years, is on course to record 4.5% this year and is the fastest growing economy in the Caribbean. White Oak and Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP represented Grenada in its negotiations. Barbados is 13 months into an SDR and dealing with creditors that have on their team a man who was central to the economic carnage of 2008-2018. To continually paint the picture that all debt restructures are concluded overnight and other countries haven’t defaulted or suspended payments is disingenuous. But I have come to expect this from persons driven by ego and vengeance, the faux intellects and Salemites, collectively known as the pick-a-noise crew. Ah mean one of the group’s key members is now busy criticising organ donation–a standard practice in the “metropoles”. 🤣🤣


  12. It would be interesting to know what was Grenada entire debt profile

  13. Piece the Legend Avatar
    Piece the Legend

    @ Hee Haw

    Mugabe is using *** well.

    But you must tell her these words.

    “…ET IN ARCADIA EGO…”

    I SHALL MEET HER in 202* and, FOR EVERYTHING SHE HAS TAKEN FROM ME, I, Piece the Legend, do invoke the name of Jesus the Christ and say…

    I, who lift up mine eyes unto the hill from whence cometh mine help…I will take back ALL THAT IS MINE.”

    All that is there is mine and I shall be recompensed 10 times”

    Now the have a partial inkling of how brilliantly HE HAS SHONE INTO MY SPIRIT.

    And that was almost 4 years ago!!!

    She has NO IDEA HOW MUCH MORE HE HAS GIVEN TO ME.

    Does she not observe the “silence”?

    “WATCH ME NOW!!!”


  14. @Pacha
    What does White Oak negotiating a deal with the external creditors have to do with BERT? The outcome will impact the effectiveness of a BERT implementation but the mechanics to determine a win win outcome is dependent on an independent process.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    David

    In economy there is essentially one large equation which governs all facets – they are all connected.

    Foreign debts levels, interests rates thereon, repayment scheduling, inflation levels, exchange rates, ability to make new borrowings, credit ratings, etc – everything is connected to everything else.

    In short, the pace of the BERT implementation schedule is being held hostage to the external debt re-negotiations. There is no difference and one can’t be effectively implemented without the other.

    In military terms these re-negotiations are Mugabe’s battle of Waterloo.

    She desires the support of the country. Such support though should never be demanded or expected but earned. She’s earned that of Pachamama in this particular military campaign.


  15. Thanks Pacha, agreed.


  16. @enuff

    Glaring is your omission of the credit rating of Grenada and if they have reentered the capital market to satisfy borrowing needs.


  17. David

    Notwithstanding, there are some benefits brought about by the SD which no one seems to want to recognize.

    Not having paid external debt for about a year now, and the further delay caused by debtholder intransigence, government should be experiencing higher than anticipated foreign exchange holdings. Those could provide space to advance BERT implementation.

    Of course the stasis and whatever resolution which will likely come about could threaten such progress in the short term.


  18. @Pacha

    Will leave your perspective to the economists and others of the BU intelligentsia to critique. One assumes the repayment schedule will not be retroactive.


  19. David

    Hardly would be! Barbados has paid a high price of sorts already for the SD. Retroactivity would be double jeopardy. In finance, that, like double-dipping, is generally seen as illegal.


  20. @Pacha

    Fair enough, it should not be used to pad the narrative that Barbados foreign reserves has increased because it has not in real terms read organic.


  21. A happy and pleasant morning to all who live in Barbados and to all Barbadians outside of Barbados.
    I hope you have a beautiful day…..


  22. David

    We have not seen the numbers recently, merely theorizing.

  23. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    “Ah mean one of the group’s key members is now busy criticising organ donation–a standard practice in the “metropoles”

    Ya see the ignorance…a standard practice…but from knowledge i know they have been finding…BODY PARTS ALL OVER THE PLACE …in those metropolises from as far back as 2005…and YOUNG BLACK PEOPLE ARE MISSING ALL OVER THE PLACE…..some. the ones they found…HAVE MISSING ORGANS…

    Yall are EVIL…and like to practice the wickedness ya see others do…on ya own people…AND YA HAVE A HUMAN TRAFFICKING DESIGNATION…..such labels includes….ORGAN HARVESTING….ya can pretend as much as ya want…but ya can’t get away from that one ya brought on yaselves..
    ,
    Do you see now WHY ALL OF US MUST BE WATCHED…..ehh…Counsel Rests…

    Bajans realy need to STOP voting for these BACKWARD black faced wannabe owners and controllers of black people.

    Find politicians WITH SUBSTANCE…difficult i know because they all ATTENDED THE SAME SLAVE SCHOOLS OF IGNORANCE….

    ..or just dont vote at all…vote ONLY when it’s time to KICK THEM ALL OUT..


  24. https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/07/27/righting-wrongs/

    I know the current administration has a policy of reversing itself after a few days. I will not wait for a few days but will applaud the PM on this course of action (today).

    Good job Mia


  25. https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/07/27/follow-the-process-says-comissiong/

    Summary: If you get a beating, cry help, murdah, police brutality but don’t holler CARICOM

  26. TheOGazerts (we investigate drug smuggling and gun running - Hire we) Avatar
    TheOGazerts (we investigate drug smuggling and gun running – Hire we)

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/07/26/drug-penalty/

    Do you think they caught the killer whales or just a guppy?
    The facts previously outlined by Crown Counsel Oliver Thomas showed that Monah and another man arrived at the Bridgetown Port on a bulk cement carrier vessel named MV Rudisa Global on December 18, 2016. The vessel left sometime later and berthed on the northern part of the island the following day. During that time police acting on information mounted surveillance operations in the Checker Hall, St Lucy area where they saw a small boat with a male occupant collecting a small blue container, which was thrown overboard by another man.

    Is Checker Hall St Lucy on a shipping route? If no, we want the captains also…..


  27. The artificially high reserves are only there because we have not paid a blind cent to the creditors. We can not assume in the negotiations that they will look at what has not been paid for 18 months and let it slide, especially after Persauds flippant comments.
    Who is to say they will not ask for 50 cents on the dollar on the amount due for the 24 months maybe by then before putting in place a revised loan plan? Do you honestly think after not getting a cent say for 24 months they are just going to say forget about that and let’s start fresh?

    What I can tell you based on simple common sence is the longer we drag this out the more we will owe in unpaid debt, hence the chance of them requesting some form of settlement on the unpaid amount becomes greater. To suggest that they will say ” we is friends forget the last 24 months you owe” is therefore idealistic to say the lease. I believe they will ask for a lump sum discounted based on what we owe since the default and then put in place a new loan schedule. Of course if we go with what Persaud says that may not happen to 2020 when they feel like addressing it.


  28. @John A

    It depends on how severe the haircut WO is able to negotiate that will determine the size of what is owed.


  29. What is Plan B, hahahah you have jokes, David, We have the DLP which was Plan D in their games,
    We then went to Plan B the BLP and then went to Plan BBLP a 3 party of cover-up of the crimes of the BLP
    We are already in PLAN B after PLAN D did not work, We are Stuck in PLAN B until 2023 or Sooner, We know President Trump wants the Crime Minister PLAN B dealt with By the 2020 Elections, The FBI would not live in Barbados if there where not to find evidence of a crime/s, All the crime in Barbados is feeding off the Massive Land Fraud and Ponzi, the land the land the fffing land is where all things are buried,study the LAND!


  30. @ David.

    They are 2 issues here.

    First what is owed with regard to the loan balance as of the day of settlement on a agreement and secondly what was lost from not being paid a cent for say 24 months. No banker is going to look at one without the other.

    They will probably take the 24 months and say this is what you should have paid under the old agreement and demand a discounted lump sum payment on that, then say this is what I can do for you now starting next month under the new payment schedule. The longer we drag this out the more the amount owed during the default period prior to a new agreement will become an issue.

    Defaulting may of bought us time, but all it does is kick the can down the road and increase future liability. These guys deal with money for a living they will not say ” forget about it” to be nice especially after being told ” we ain’t rushing to pay you anyhow.”


  31. @ John A

    The creditors are entitled to 100 per cent of the debt and should demand every penny. There is this misguided idea in Barbados that they must accept a discount. I say they do not – and SHOULD not accept any. I hope Dr Worrell is giving them good advice.
    Make Barbados pay in full or sell the debt to a hedge fund who would then take them to an appropriate court, preferably in New York, where failure to pay will end up with all their assets being seized.
    Make them pay for their recklessness. Tough love. If they want to punch above their weight this is how it feels when someone hits back. Our government and its fan club are living in a fantasy world. It will end in tears. Barbados is a failed state.

  32. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    Theo…don’t be FOOLED..they were all a part of that SCAM to rob these vulnerable people…..ask Thorne..


  33. I see that you are still in the trenches fighting a dedicated tag team.

    Me? I am resting as we travel from one issue to another. Perhaps, you should take their claim of being a madman as simply a warning that you will be able to change nothing.

    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.


  34. @John A

    Understand your line of reasoning however haircuts coming out of SD/default has become an option by sovereigns which explains the rise of niche players like WO. It is a matter of public record the external creditors are prepared to take a haircut, the point of contention is how much supported by the terms.


  35. My further advice to Mia is,fire WhiteOak,fire the nuisance leech hanger-on Persaud,hire Owen Seymour Arthur to re-negotiate the external debt immediately.Bite the bullet Mia because I can only see our reputation getting worse and the dice not rolling in your favour.Delay will not win you friends nor influence the electorate to give you the benefit of the doubt.Fire Persaud and hire Owen.


  36. @Hal

    I believe the mouthing of Persaud will now make them more rigid in their demands for sure. For us to believe they will just say forget what we failed to pay during the default period is comical to say the least. Politicians and those involved are trying to mislead the public that they will turn a blind eye to what was owed during the default period and say don’t mind that let’s start fresh.

    That is where any half ass newspaper would of come in and said to the public we have an additional debt now accrued during the default period that will now be an issue as well. But instead they just leave the misconception out there that the creditors will let that slide.

    I really am disappointed in how this issue has been allowed to just go unchallenged.


  37. We should take a differentiated view of debt in foreign currency.

    Compared to the disaster in Argentina, the creditors will be glad if they get back the nominal capital.

    But they must not expect to continue receiving 10% interest, because at the moment banks even have to pay penalty interest if they deposit their money with the central bank.

    We should also pay no attention to all the hullabaloo surrounding the professor. His sentences are for the local masses, who do not understand any financial contexts with their half-education. The negotiations take place between the Massas of White Oak and the Massas on the opposite side.

    So I really don’t see that the government has made a mistake in the credit negotiations so far.

    However, there is still a lot of backlog when it comes to reducing the number of civil servants. It would be best if our Prime Minister, like Stalin, were to go through the list of all civil servants with a pencil and cross out every third name.


  38. Do you remember the story of the snake that bit the animal that was carrying it across the river and explaining that his (the snake’s) silly action was because “that’s my nature”.

    Fifty three years and we have two opposites fighting for the steering wheel and then charting the same course. It’s not ignorance, corruption or wicknedness… it’s their nature.
    The educated discourse is part of the do nothing plan… the nature of the ‘pick-a-noise and salemite crowd.
    Pulling to the side and watching the tragedy play out… my new nature

    Accept it, live with it.


  39. @ John A

    You are right about the distorted narrative. This all started under the Owen Arthur regime, when he talked fiction about being a first world country.
    I remember sometime in 2008, at the height of the global crisis, I was interviewed on the then BBC Caribbean service, along with Marion Williams and a Dr somebody from Trinidad when Marion Williams said the crisis would not affect Barbados. I almost collapsed.
    This was made worse by the gross incompetence of the Stuart governments.
    Against good advice, Stuart held on to the innumerate Sinckler as minister of finance; but after Stuart won his own mandate, he should have faced down Sinckler and dropped him from government. He failed to and has paid the price.
    This government came to power on May 25, 2018, and within five days had signed a contract with White Oaks to negotiate its debt. There is a level of dishonesty about that decision.
    The only innocents in this sorry tale are the ordinary taxpayers of Barbados. @Wlliam Skinner’s duopoly is at play. They are all guilty.
    What adds to it are badly economically informed contributions to the discussion.


  40. @ Hal Austin July 27, 2019 8:51 AM

    Williams is the typical product of failed education at the taxpayer’s expense. I remember a conversation with her all too clearly. She said Barbados was much more developed than Paris, London or Geneva. That’s how they are, the islanders. They think their little cave is the world and the light from the entrance is the sun itself.

    Nor should we forget the high inflation rate under her highly incompetent leadership as gov. of the central bank.
    In the years between 2000 and 2008, Barbados lost the connection to global productivity. Unfortunately, the government has adjusted the salaries of civil servants to this inflation, instead of only moderately increasing the salaries with productivity. But what I am saying here exceeds the intellect of the naïve masses anyway.


  41. @ Hal

    Yes we have some trying to say that it’s simply going to be a matter of the creditors saying ok let’s wipe the slate clean and start fresh. They fail to realise the 24 odd months of no payment have also now encured another debt. Of course the useless press and opposition let that slide as well.

    The reality is we will have to settle what was owed during the default period now as well as address a new loan contract, if indeed the creditors are willing to entertain this. The longer we drag out settlement the more we will owe during the default period under the old loan agreement, hence the amount we would need to settle with them prior to a new agreement coming to bear will increase. For some to suggest they will forget this liability and start fresh, shows how badly we are informed about financial affairs.

    As I told David we now have 2 issues on the table that would require payment and not just one. Those that try to imply different are either ignorant of finance, or simply trying to mislead the public Into a sense of false comfort.


  42. @John A

    At this point Barbados will have to pay based on the agreement coming out of the WO creditors negotiation. It is premature to assume any other outcome.


  43. @ Tron

    This economic wizard left the central bank and was sent to Geneva as our woman in the Swiss city. My concern, which flies over the heads of the typical BU warrior, is that all this is the result of the myth of free education by the Rt Honourable Errol Barrow, our national hero and Father of Independence.
    We can trace the betrayal of Barbados not only back to the Barrow generation, but to named schools and individuals who have betrayed our history. Our historians and political scientists (is there such a thing?) do not want to do their home work because their names will be on the lists of the guilty, as beneficiaries of the fraud on tax payers who live on the blocks.
    But myth-making is part of our culture, the result of learning by rote; if you think I am wrong, just look at the elementary nonsense spewed out every day about foreign reserves.
    The one thing defaulting on our dollar-denominated debt has taught us is that after a year of not using our foreign reserves, its urgency and importance, Barbados is still there and our ministers are still flying all over the world.
    I repeat, Plato’s allegory, we are cave people in a wide blossoming world. I don’t want to bore you with numbers, but since 2008, the global economy has grown remarkably, so has the S&P 500. Barbados continues to underperform the global and regional economies. Deal with that. We are a failed state. In 50 years we will be worse off than the Pacific islanders. Dial 999 for Marion Williams, the economic rainmaker.

  44. Georgie Porgie Avatar
    Georgie Porgie

    barbados is a failed state!

    MIA MUGABE MAO MUTTLEY PRIMEWICKER IS A FAILED LEADER.

    SHE IS AN EXCELLENT FAILURE

    SHE GOT NUFF MOUT
    AS SHE GOES ALL ABOUT
    BUT SHE IS A LOSING LOUT
    CONTINUING OUR ROT AND ROUT
    WITH OUT A DOUBT
    GIVING US GOUT
    MAKING US POUT

  45. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    Wuh Loss ! Wuh Loss !!


  46. @ David.

    Yes they will have to pay based on an agreement but don’t think
    for a minute the debt we ran up as a result of the 24 months of delay will not be included as well.

    Money has a cost as a result unserviced debt has a cost too. This is not 2 friends owing money between them where one can tell tell the other ” don’t mind what you miss pay me so much from next month and we good.”

    The default has added to the cost of the lenders money and will be brought to table at settlement of that you can be sure.


  47. @ Vincent

    You right to get there and laugh! Add this to that calypso you penning. Lol

  48. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ John A

    You real bright. You ask for plan B. What was plan A ,again? Is it not clear to you that there was no plan.


  49. The ‘human’ who now seems to believe that the international creditors are to not provide any concessions. That they should lay claim to Barbados’ assets in the case of ‘no-deal’. That some kind of eye-for-an-eye justice should befall Barbados for its debts.

    Has he not heard of concept of Jubilee, at the one end and toxic debt at the other. Even debtor’s power, somewhere in between! The notion of a failed-state readily and singularly comes from such a troubled mind.

    We are left to wonder how the real and historic crimes of the place where he resides should be dealt with.

    We have certainly not heard him previously recommend that the UK bear such draconian penalties for chattel slavery, global terrorism, colonialization, global warming. the thief of everything they now have from elsewhere, the millennia of criminals wars for resources as imposed on much of the world, need we go on. It may take all day!

    We have noticed over the years his perverse interest in Barbados’ politics. Ready to ‘cease’ the slightest opportunity to impose the most draconian sanctions on a country which has the dishonor of giving him birth.

    Maybe, just maybe, the field of psychiatry has an explanation for such polarity.

  50. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ John at 9 : 48 AM

    What do you want me to do? I either laugh or cry. My upbringing does not allow me to cry. That is for wimps. So I will laugh. My mother used to say: “Every skin teeth is not a laugh”.

    I admire your perseverance in trying to make sense out of nonsense.Carry on smartly. Lol !!

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