The Mia Mottley government forced a debt restructure on locals holding bonds. The government boasted about the speed it was completed although truth be told it was a Hobson’s choice.

On the other side of the debt restructuring transactions the external bond holders have so far been nettlesome at the negotiating table. Approaching 18 months and there appears to be a stalemate in the negotiation. The Mia Mottley government has been unable to deliver on a promise that the debt restructure transaction would have been closed by now.

Senior members of the BU family have taken umbrage to a recent comment by one of the government’s financial advisors Avinash Persaud.  Here is a pertinent quote.

What we have been trying to do is to get the best deal possible for Barbados, which means that it can’t be the quickest deal possible. If you play poker do you fold early? If you don’t need to borrow for four years you have a good hand. So, we are following the right strategy – No backing down

The blogmaster must agree at the idiocy of the statement when viewed through the eyes of a good poker player.  A good poker player will fold based on the game situation. It does not have one Rh to do with early or late in the game.

The blogmaster appreciates there is an element of table craft that will be exercised by actors sitting around a negotiating table. One must however critique the judgement of Persaud to feel embolden to have issued such a statement at this juncture in the negotiation.

Despite a bevy of officials recruited by the government with job descriptions to cover finance, communications, public relations and media liaison –  the public is left to speculate as to the current state of negotiations with the external debt restructure transaction.

Given the perilous state of the Barbados economy and the time it is taking to close the debt restructure deal with external creditors – the more aware citizens excluding the yard fowl variety – have started to examine the increasing downside risks threatening the Barbados recovery program. The blogmaster counts himself among those who is now very concerned that the high price White Oaks team has been unable to resolve the wedge issues.

It is time to go to plan B.

Do we have a plan B?

 

322 responses to “Does White Oak Have a Plan B?”

  1. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ Pacha
    You have the
    nerve to pretend that you can give me tutorials on the “ finer” details of some economic system. And then you declare that after all your imagined tutorials I have “stopped learning”
    Really Pacha ? You are certainly writing in jest or have successfully negotiated recently taken comedy classes.


  2. @ Hal

    I will go on to bet that when this issue is brought to a head it will be at the hands of the foreign creditors and not those we have paid handsomely to do little.

  3. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    All we can say is…May 2020…is SOON HERE…


  4. @ John A

    The Whit Oaks deal is perverse, as has been pointed out on numerous occasions. It is in their interest to drag out the discussions. What is more important s the relationship, personal or professional, between the government and its advisers and White Oaks. It is sad that our media have not yet discovered any such connection, which, if it exists, may explain a lot.

  5. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    “Also on july 21st a news article stated that Donald Trump had an eagle eye on the 290Million IMF loan to barbados govt”

    well we done know when our great Satan is watching this, something else is in the works…

    at least WE already KNOW what to expect from our great Satan…but this BEASTLY lot ya got in that cursed parlament…ya better watch ya backs..


  6. @ Pacha
    In one voice you say the Duopoly. In another you say it’s the same government. And then you come with this : “ Who brought us here.. “ retort.
    Pacha, THEY brought us here. Have you now joined those who believe that we got here between 2008 and 2018 ? It is they not who.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Sir William Skinner

    We are not accepting of the simplistic duopoly notions which you always seem to proffer.

    For us, that philosophical rendering does not fully explain the organism we study.

    When we said ‘Who brought us here’ we wanted to ,in shorthand, conjure a few ideas. One, to repeat what Sandiford had said. And two, to talk about how duopoly constantly repeats itself.

    Because a political system is a duopoly it does not necessarily means the absence of moral agency and that forces located therein will always behave in the dominant ways, as seeming presumed by you. Or a single way, for that matter.

    No, Those who argue that the present state of affairs in Barbados rest entirely on the 2008-2018 DLP regime are highly misguided.

    They are right only to the extent that the DLP happened to be in office during that time and in simple political terms must take the blame. But that is as far as such a logic could go.

    Certainly, the failure of the OSA regime 1994-2008 is primary. it’s failure to transform the economy, the orgy of debt engaged in and its crime of not understanding the nature of financialization of economy led directly to what the DLP found itself in in 2008 and by extension what Mugabe now has to deal with. All true. Now that is what really makes a duopoly.

    We might be more historical and go much further back.

    You know this history better than most why is it necessary to repeat it?

    In short, the DLP must take full responsibly as a political matter. No body is going rest on these longwinded discourses, certainly not a public, thus the 30-0 result last time.


  7. In fact, the agreement was only reached in March 2015 but it actually concluded on October of the same year. Hear nuh:

    In April 2014, Grenada published two indicative debt restructuring options as background for future discussions with holders of its EC$2025 bond (Table 2). The publication noted that the indicative options did not constitute an offer, but rather was intended as an indication of the type of restructuring terms that Grenada believed to be required to bridge the multiyear financing gap identified in the initial financing estimate published in March 2014. The IMF Staff Report published in July 2014 indicated that the published debt restructuring scenarios were consistent with achieving debt sustainability and reducing near-term debt servicing obligations. The same indicative options were presented to the Ex-Im Bank of Taiwan, along with a proposal on the treatment of outstanding arrears―despite ongoing litigation against Grenada, the Ex-Im Bank indicated its willingness in principle to participate in the debt restructuring.

    It is instructive to note that there was “ongoing litigation” and also that the same team of Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton and White Oak represented Grenada in these negotiations. Up to now I haven’t seen anyone hired the Senior Editor or Deposit Loser to restructure their debt. #don’thatemeijustpostthefacts


  8. @John A

    You may recall Mascoll indicated a few weeks ago that he had taken a deliberate position to utter less public statements. Allow the government officials to do the talking . Persaud did not receive the memo?


  9. @Hal.

    I think the media have failed us terribly here for sure. They have confirmed that issues like these seem not as Important as focusing on Cropover to them. The thing is that no one on our side seems too concerned about the price we will pay for our behaviour. To say we don’t plan to go back to them in no hurry so we ain t rushing to pay them, is some what narrow minded and short sighted to say the least. What about if the private sector have projects that need financing what happens to them? A company registered here surely will not be looked at favourably when the state has defaulted and failed to settle with the same creditor the said company is now trying to borrow from.

    No one seems too worried at the effect this can have on our future growth and our ability to raise or credit rating. That to me is the most concerning fact of all.


  10. @ David.

    Maybe Persaud made a mistake and told the truth! Lol


  11. Skinner

    Did not see comment at 8:23

    Will reply in two hours.

  12. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    “Maybe Persaud made a mistake and told the truth! Lol”

    well he has not jumped out yet with the “misspoke” excuse…and was VERY emphatic about the government’s position..it is kinda hard to wiggle out of what he said..now…if he had not tried to wiggle out last night…time is of the essence in damage control…..it is like 8 hours too late now….and the article was kinda LONG..lol

    and since Counsel Rests can’t even be bothered to cuss me this morning…we done know…it is irreversible damge that came striaght out of Proferssor Beastlet’s mouth…


  13. @ John A

    When you have a charismatic leader, all kinds of unconventional things can take place. Plse re-read Jonestown and the Waco siege. Charismatic leaders can convince people that suicide is great. Economic suicide of a little island is but a version of that.


  14. Plus the fact that the rest in government are like church mice on what he said, one can therefore only presume this is also their position as well.

    So shall we conclude that all WO has been paid $85000 USD a month for is basically to do nothing but take their time?

    Sounds like madness but based on what has been said could this not be the case?

    So many questions and no answers.


  15. @ Hal.

    No Koolaid for me thanks. Fortunately I am capable of thinking for myself. This is however as you put it, going down the road of the self inflicted destruction of our financial reputation for years to come.

    Where is the opposition on this or they too busy with cropover too?


  16. @ William Skinner July 26, 2019 8:23 AM
    “I don’t see the common sense of declaring a plant poisonous and then advising others to eat it.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    What a perfect analogy! Love it to bits!

    Isn’t that exactly what the stupid masses were fed prior to May 2018 and now have to feel the toxic aftershocks?

    How come those accused of the said corruption which has led to the fiscal constipation being experienced by the current administration have not been brought to account for their deliberately executed high level of incompetence in order to feather their personal financial nests?

    Where has been the follow-up on the ‘alleged’ rip-off invoice laid in parliament as a document of concern in respect of the financial health of the BWA?

    Has the VAT collected on behalf of the Treasury been paid over to the BRA?

    Where is Caswell Franklyn to ask those pertinent questions when the masses need him most? Has he too been sucked into the system of collusion and corruption by the big-ups when the masses are left to suck salt and eat the poisonous plant of lies and incestuous collusion?


  17. They don’t care about any of that…their objectives are STRICTLY self serving and doing the BARE MINIMUM for the population..the majority…as they have done for 70 plus years…..it is all about their own self-aggrandizement and enrichment…these never cared for their own people…or people would not now be literally…STARVING..while the Beast is talking about some bullshit freedom award that no one can EAT..

    problem with Bajans..they like to suffer in silence while the vicious and the greedy walk all over them..

    .let’s see how long they put up with this particular destruction to themselves for….before saying ENUFF.


  18. @ Pacha
    You need to avoid contradictions. In one voice you say that the current economic and fiscal system is doomed to failure. You then advise to give the Duopoly “three years” to bring us through a system you have repeatedly denounced as a failure!
    I simply pointed out that Stuart’s position on ignoring downgrades is quite the same as Persaud ignoring the foreign creditors.
    My position is clear. The Duopoly brought us here. You are quite free to intellectualise and lock horns with those who are trying to separate blame. That position cannot stand up to serious scrutiny although it fits snuggly into the BU format.
    I don’t see the common sense of declaring a plant poisonous and then advising others to eat it.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

    Sir William Skinner

    No thanks, that’s impossible. Contradictions are central to the issues we deal with. Criticality cannot be arrived at unless we deal with internal contradictions.

    Well, all we have been saying is what Karl Marx said nearly 150 years ago. Hordes of mainstream thinkers are coming to the same conclusion as well.

    What would you have us do, not consider problems of political economy even as we have reached the same conclusion as Marx. No thanks.

    We both argued for the legalization of marijuana. But marijuana is far more dangerous than cigarettes. Is there any contradiction there.

    If you had cancer, you might even decide to take a raft of cancer drugs. But the cancer drugs/therapies kill more people than cancer per se. Is there a contradiction there?

    Your false equivalence between the actions of Persaud and Stuart is just that. Government policy is to negotiate a settlement with the foreign creditors, not to ignore them. Whereas, Stuart’s action was as a result of mismanagement of the highest order. A crime for which death should have been the penalty. Persaud is merely a functionary. Stuart was the dictator in chief. What equivalence? Is there not a contradiction here?

    To simply contend that ‘a duopoly brought us here’ is merely a way to subsume the recent culpability of the DLP into the tall grasses. Certainly, duopoly cannot rest on the simplicity that regardless to who did what, we will say everybody did it. That position of yours lacks logic.

    We can’t say what ‘fits the BU format’ but the level of scrutiny about who is rightly blamed was determined by the highest court in the land – the people of Barbados with a vote of 30-0.

    Skinner, you need to deploy more sophisticated interrogation methods.


  19. “Persaud is merely a functionary. Stuart was the dictator in chief. What equivalence? Is there not a contradiction here?”

    a mere functionary who more than likely now believes himself to be the leader….dude sent a letter to a London newpaper…FT of all places RIDDLED WITH LIES…

    … this false british uppitiness is quite admired by black ass dummies…..

    ….cause we are clueless to what bullshit the Beast is whispering in his ears….and winding him up.

  20. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ Pacha
    I can also present that your constant reference to the nefarious deeds of Stuart and company subtlety suggests that Mottley and company can be spared the guillotine. My “simple” position is that both deserve the guillotine.
    I did not realise that the murder of an individual depends on who murdered him or her. I always thought that the murder was the crime and whomever was responsible should at least be called a murderer.
    You are suggesting that Persaud is a functionary and Stuart was a chief. To me they are both destroyers of the economy. You have constantly stated that Persaud is a fraud. You seem quite contented with a “fraud” escaping the guillotine because he is now a “ functionary”.
    Once more I respectfully ask you : Why are you trying to justify others eating a plant that you have vehemently declared poisonous?
    Those of us who were exposed to critical thinking understand philosophical contradictions . We also understand when confusion takes residence in what should be clear thinking. In other words you simply cannot defend a duopoly that you have been vociferous in calling for its death by your favorite instrument.
    You went to a cell dragged a prisoner to be beheaded and then weakened and ordered that he be given “ three” more years, a reprieve if you will, to further poison the country. You even stated that should he poison us all he would have done “quite well.”
    You simply cannot have it both ways Pacha.


  21. WARU

    “To make this even uglier from the mouthings of Professor No Banking Down.. there was absolutely NO REASON…for the then brand new Mottley adminstration to DEFAULT..she LIED…again.”

    Taken for BT

    “In his interview with Barbados TODAY this morning Persaud argued that even though the default on the foreign debt could compromise Barbados’ ability to secure loans on the international capital markets, Government’s policy of no borrowing for the next four years negates this threat. However, the economist did not reveal whether Government plans to make adjustments to the latest known proposal, which was dismissed by the holders of Barbados’ foreign debt.”

    WARU.

    Where did the Professor state that ……. “there was absolutely NO REASON……..to DEFAULT”?

    JOHN A

    The Professor is a Government Chief Advisor – Not Negotiator.

    It is ok to have an opinion/ask questions but usually not good to assume.

    Negotiating in good faith = WO + External Creditors
    Not the Creditors Advisors opinion that was made to the media or the Government’s Advisors opinion that was placed in the media.

    Negotiation in good faith should be what is officially put on the table, face to face / electronically or official documentation.

    MY OPINION

  22. fortyacresandamule Avatar
    fortyacresandamule

    @Northern observer. The only collateral I can think of is the full TRUST and FAITH of the government. Last time I heard, we had total external debt of US$ 1.5 billion.This consist of bonds, commercial loans (eg. credit suisse) along with multilateral loans from development partners(eg. IDB, CDB etc).

    One of the main reason Jamaica avoided a hair cut at all cost on its debt restructuring programm, was to avoid the possibility of lawsuits. Jamaica debt repayment obligation is entrenched in its constitution. Also the two debt exchange programme executed by Jamaica was only for the domestic holder and not the external creditors.

    And jamaica has been rewarded on the international capital market for this strategy. How? presently Jamaica has a junk status credit rating, however, its Euro bond is yielding at rate similar to countries with investment grade rating.That means the government of Jamaica don’t have a problem refinancing its Euro bonds ON THE CHEAP when they are due.


  23. @John 2

    That makes it even worst as the advisor sets the parameters for the negotiator to operate between. Based on this WO would now be free of being accused of dragging their feet as they would be acting within the guidelines of the chief government advisor.

    When ever done all them mixed up in it together. Difference is Persaud has now put government in the firing line directly.


  24. John A

    Not good to assume

    Persaud can also be fired.


  25. @ John A

    I am lost at the silence of our key economic spokespeople. President Trump is battling with the Fed to weaken the dollar; in Bajan, President Trump is busy trying to weaken the Bajan dollar. Given this, and given an austerity programme as official policy, where is the much talked about growth going to come from?
    Further, the global economy is slowing down, with the IMF revising downwards its growth projections for 2019 and interest rates n developed economies are low. Let us stick to the economics and cut out the politics. With a new, aggressive government in the UK, workers are now more cautious than at any time since 2008 ie long haul tourism, a luxury, is out. This has the hallmark of 1967, only instead of sterling it is the dollar. How building hundreds of additional hotel rooms is going to help is beyond me.
    Our economic titans have not yet come up with a plausible programme for change. They are bluffing and it s all going to end in tears.


  26. Mia,take my foolish advice and send for Owen Arthur to take over the Ministry of Finance.Change the law that says the Minister of Finance must be in the lower house.Better yet,change the House to allow elected members and some select ministries to be represented by Senators. But,send for Owen now

  27. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    “WARU.

    Where did the Professor state that ……. “there was absolutely NO REASON……..to DEFAULT”?”

    listen…i was talking about what he said yesterday…to clarify….MY WORDS…there was no reason fault….i said it on more than one blog.

    you get that from people who could think for themselves, forming opinions some may be afraid to..

  28. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    “You simply cannot have it both ways Pacha”

    Pacha believes in the philosophy that is driving the intent.

    the end justifies the means.

    my concern is at what cost..

    just to simplify things.

  29. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ Gabriel at 12:58 PM

    You are irresponsible!

  30. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    my concern is at what cost….AND TO WHOM.


  31. If the government fails to make a deal with international creditors for foreign currency loans, government must in any case slaughter the civil service and cut back again on debt in local currency (international commercial banks must be excluded).

    The civil servants have driven the country into the abyss. It is now time for a huuuuge sacrifice.I think that the entire population, with the exception of selfish bureaucrats, will frenetically support this plan.

    When I hear that some civil servant gets a $9,000 pension, I start to puke. $9,000 for 40 years of idleness or worshiping the idol Barrow.

    Bureaucracy means poverty.
    A large civil service means great poverty.


  32. @ john2 July 26, 2019 12:54 PM

    Fired by whom? The IMF?

    This self-styled guru is the de facto MoF just like how Sinckler was the de facto PM in the Stuart sissy administration.

    The pseudo-persuasive chatterbox has yogi-like status among his dazzled and dazed pupils ignorant to the highfalutin realm of even basic far less international finance.

    Who else would have the cojones to take up the position of chief manufacturer of bull Sh**t aka verbal manure used as feed to be regurgitated by the ruminants in a castrated cabinet?

    Would you recommend Jepter the physical deficit Ince to replace the ace bull shit**er of intelligence capital?


  33. @ Hal

    On the famous hotel corridor I asked a question that has not been answered. It is simply this i wish an answer for. With a 9 month occupancy average outside of winter struggling to stay above 55% who and where are the people coming from to fill say 600 new rooms? The whole idea has at is base the logic of lunacy.

    As for the madness going on here with Persaud I can only assume they are trying to force the foreign creditors into a showdown that we will lose for obvious reasons. I shall therefore refer to this form of negotiation as the Kamakazi approach. Or if you prefer financial suicide as that too can work.

    Again I ask where are the opposition on this matter?


  34. @ John A

    There is no opposition. Where are the academics, journalists and businesspeople to challenge government policy? Where is the public discourse, community groups, trade unions, churches, credit unions?
    Every evening there should be debates, discussions, lectures, with the entire population anxious to learn what is happening to their society.


  35. WARU

    CAN YOU DIRECT ME TO THAT BLOG?

  36. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    John, you are joking right, check out the 747 blog..

  37. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    As a matter of fact i think i mentioned it on this blog twice.

    in my discourse with Pacha, i mentioned that …the small circle that mattered, said that a default was unnecessary…

    read all those posts, it will pop up.


  38. @ Hal

    I think they all suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. They so accustom to the nonesence that they just accepting it as part of the course now which is sad.

    What I can say is that In the absence of any damage control we can now confirm that Persaud was simply repeating the view of the government in his statement. He therefore has nothing to fear from the MOF as he was clearly just voicing their collective view and plan of action, or in this case lack thereof.

    Basically then we can no longer blame W0 for failing to settle this matter as that is not the wish of our government, as confirmed by the senior advisor to the MOF yesterday.

    The question is why did we need W0 to begin with if this was the game plan and are we prepared for the fallout this approach will bring?

    I only asking for the sake of course as no answers are expected.

  39. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    All am telling Counsel Rests, she posted that Grenada’s restructuring took 2 years…will 2 years for Barbados is in 9 months at least…so there should be no excuse after May 2020…about playing chicken with international creditors..

    .. they bragged and boasted how miraculous white hoax is, had them walking on water for the people’s money…..millions and millions and a heavy $85,000US per month on top of that…

    cause while all this is going on..White Hoax is milking the treasury…money which belongs to the people who are now struggling..

    apparently ya always have to remind this family that the people’s money does not belong to them.


  40. “It is simply this i wish an answer for. With a 9 month occupancy average outside of winter struggling to stay above 55% who and where are the people coming from to fill say 600 new rooms?”

    Sandals stays above 75%. Is it therefore sensible to argue, that there is correlation between the quality of your room stock and occupancy levels, especially off-peak? Modern hotels that are better designed and built, technologically-driven and maximise the guests’ experience will improve demand. Operating costs can also be reduced, with built in energy/water efficiency measures. The plan to build new hotel stock is not just about quantity, but more about modernising and improving the quality and diversity of the stock and ancillary services/facilities. Buildings that embrace climate change/adaptation etc. Secondly, you speak as though the number of visitors is restricted. The 55% occupancy you speak of is not fixed, it can be improved. In fact the absence of the type of rooms I mentioned above could very well be a catalyst for higher occupancy rates off-peak because the BTMI or whomever is responsible for marketing and promotion can target niches such as large conferences/conventions etc, which are usually during the off-peak. It’s called strategic thinking.

  41. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    Translation:

    all they want on the island are maids and gardeners and $6 dollar an hour security guards..

    they know nothing else, anything else will see the people properous and that is something these useless trash in parliament don’t want and cannot envision.


  42. I welcomed the change of government but 14 months is long enough to usher in some fundamental change in this place and I am getting impatient with this crowd of 27 ministers sitting on their hands doing nothing but talking BS.
    Rice gone up,pork gone up,pudding and souse gone up,bus fares gone up,water rates gone up,gas gone up and Buhbaydus at a standstill.My last garbage collection cycle was 19 days!!Dr Mascoll gone into hiding,Professor Persaud can’t negotiate the external debt portfolio and Mia sitting and allowing Barbados to get a bad name in the international currency markets for the first time since Stuart got the boot.We are at a standstill.Help,somebody,help.


  43. Barbados and other Caribbean economies are being cautioned about the monetary policies they employ, as regional economist Marla Dukharan suggests they follow the example set by the Bank of Jamaica.”

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/07/26/economist-look-to-jamaica-central-banks-money-policy/

  44. WURA-WAR-on-U Avatar

    And they all got the temerity to pretend that all is well….and don’t expect anyone to watch them and expose their crap.

  45. Georgie Porgie Avatar
    Georgie Porgie

    re Rice gone up,pork gone up,pudding and souse gone up,bus fares gone up,water rates gone up,gas gone up and Buhbaydus at a standstill.My last garbage collection cycle was 19 days!!Dr Mascoll gone into hiding,Professor Persaud can’t negotiate the external debt portfolio and Mia sitting and allowing Barbados to get a bad name in the international currency markets for the first time since Stuart got the boot.We are at a standstill.Help,somebody,help.

    MAN GABRIEL AINT YOU AN ANGLICAN?
    I LEFT THE ANGLICAN CHURCH 51 YEARS AGO BUT I CAN STILL REMEMBER THIS VERSE

    Hear we the Shepherd’s voice,
    Pray, brethren, pray!
    Would ye His heart rejoice?
    Pray, brethren, pray!
    Sin calls for constant fear,
    Weakness needs the Strong One near
    Long as ye struggle here;
    Pray, brethren, pray!


  46. Abigail de Salemite

    SMFH! Idiocy like a recurring decimal…infinite.🤣🤣


  47. David

    There is no need for a ‘B Plan’ or ‘Plan B’.

    For Plan A, BERT, is an all in one.

  48. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    Yeah…wait until the people get really fed up ya will then see the recurring decimal. Then and only then will u understand that nothing will reflect on me. People are wondering who is going to regulate the lastest shite to enter your empty heads about organ donations and transplants. What the hell is wrong with you people. Ya think anyone would trust yall with their organs. Ya mad. For yall to gosell people’s organs to the highest bidder. Yall done know how ya greedy and have no ethics and morals.


  49. @Pacha

    What does White Oak negotiating a deal with the external creditors have to do with BERT? The outcome will impact the effectiveness of a BERT implementation but the mechanics to determine a win win outcome is dependent on an independent process.


  50. GP
    I enjoy the Anglican music as found in the singing of the psalms,canticles,hymns and anthems and carols.Still do.Mine is the ministry of music.

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