Former Governor of Central Bank DeLisle Worrell’s Second Opinion on Economy

Text of Dr. Delisle Worrell – former Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados – October 2018 newsletter:

There is a Second Opinion on the Health of the Barbadian Economy

In November last year I published a diagnosis and prescription for the economy in The Barbados Economy: The Road to Prosperity, which you may find on my website, DeLisleWorrell.com. Barbados has a competitive tourist industry, a well regarded international business and financial services sector, and quality rums and other exports that are coveted in the Caribbean, North America, Europe and elsewhere. On the basis of the foreign exchange they earn, our economy should be growing by 3 percent per year.

Instead, our economy did not grow at all last year, and it is expected to contract this year.

 

 

The main reason is that $2 billion of investments have been held up in official processes of one kind or another. To make matters worse, taxes failed to cover Government expenditures by a wide margin. Government was obliged to borrow to make up the difference, including from the Central Bank. As a result, the foreign reserves fell to low levels, deterring potential investors.

Check Caribbeansignal.com for full text of former Governor of the Central Bank

26 comments

  • Dr.Greenidge seems to be confident about a Barbados recovery on 3 years.

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  • There was a committee headed by Justin Robinson established under the last government to rationalize the SOEs. A report with recommendations was submitted to the MoF Sincler. It would be interesting for those recommendations to be made public.

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  • The BU intelligentsia’s attack on Dr.Greenidge’s credibility is imminent. Dah Oxbridge degree will be deemed useless, stolen or false.🕛🕧🕐

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  • Remember when you used to do nuff,nuff attacking on everyone in the last DLP Administration?

    Do so – don’t like so.

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  • @David He is proposing that the government retrench 4500 workers after he help cause this mess that we are in. You think the IMF old give us anymore funding for retrenchment and what “other International agencies is he talking about. He seems to be interested in going to extremes to avoid debt restructuring which the IMF endorses by the way. They even asked for Greece to do the same to get bailout funding last year :

    Greece needs debt restructuring, interest rate cuts: IMF’s Lagarde

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-imf-idUSKBN1612CI

    The inability to get this done is one of the main reasons why the Greek crisis has lasted much longer than It might have.

    I don’t Know how you can avoid dealing debt restructuring (reducing interest payments on debt) in a plan to fix a fiscal problem when interest payments on debt is the biggest line item in the government expenditures even bigger than transfers to SOEs, so therefore what Delisle is proposing is that we deal with the second biggest line item in an extreme way while leaving the biggest line item untouched. here is the logic. We all agree with the need to do something about the SOEs, in fact it is a major plank in the BERT programme, which calls for merging, privatizing technological improvements and job cuts at SOEs. Where I and some others depart from Worrell is his belief that nothing should be done about the huge interest payments on debt. this is flawed.

    I ould beg the blog to take a listen to Owen Arthur’s speech during the Estimates in 2017 on debt restructuring and how to go about it:

    https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBarbadosLabourParty%2Fvideos%2F1001194920023890%2F&show_text=0&width=560

    That being said, Delisle Worrell is weird.

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  • Greenidge might not be one feeling the economic pinches
    Every manjack going to be looking out fuhself meaning govt plans would be on the back burner for a long time slowly cooking as time runs out
    Three years for a recovery and govt has not laid out a growth plan to aid in the recovery
    Sounds like vodoo economics to me

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  • “Dr No” DW was in charge for many years. And all he did was assisting Big Sinck, the least gifted man in the Caribbean. I mean, how low is DW that he cooperated with somebody who can neither control his mouth, his weight or his budget ?

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  • Another BSer of monstrous proportions whose sell by date is long gone.Nobody listening to failures.When a professional economist allow a garsun boy to dictate monetary policy the result was the failed effort to get the CCJ to reinstate him in Adams Towers.How hilarious!RH JA.Get lost man!

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  • David

    Are you confident also about a 3 yr recovery time frame ?

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  • Worrell is best ignored.
    The ONLY good thing that Stinkliar EVER did ….was to fire his donkey….

    On the matter of our new IMF plan…
    When the MAIN plan is to explore all efforts to BORROW MORE money, ON TOP of what was done over the past ten years..
    It MUST be clear that we are brass bowls…

    This national approach was best characterised by the two women on Brass Tacks on Sunday – talking about Crime in Barbados.

    LOL
    The conclusion was that what we have been doing has clearly NOT been working….
    So the “experts” cautioned that we need to ‘work a lot harder’…
    What the Hell….!!??

    Stinkliar borrowed until our credit card exploded….
    so to fix this, Mia has negotiated brand new cards with the lenders…
    Problem SOLVED….

    LOL
    ha ha ha
    Murdah !!! (no pun intended…)

    Liked by 1 person

  • BTW @ David

    What’s up with Caswell?
    Did the Pain&Teets show ruffle his feathers?
    Or it is Mia that has muzzled him now that he is a big-up?

    That Parliament food has a way of changing people…

    ..Look at Enuff nuh!!!
    What a difference a plate makes….

    #FreefoodforUandURfamily

    Liked by 1 person

  • RE Dr.Greenidge seems to be confident about a Barbados recovery on 3 years.
    THIS IS CALLED DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR!

    Liked by 1 person

  • NO Recovery can be done when fraud is at foot, Massive Land Fraud and Ponzi is the Case, Clear Land titles is the Cure , Long talking and wasting time on BU is not gooijng to solve any case where the people need Help BFP/CUP the Crime Minister, AG, DPP ,COP All has to go,, Seem Barbados also need a top cop from China,

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  • What are the special qualities possessed by Dr Greenidge and Professor Persaud that could not be found at the economics department at UWI? Why do we as an intelligent nation tolerate the appalling nonsense that passes for serious economic debates? Why is the economics department not giving an independent analysis of the state of the economy?

    Liked by 1 person

  • It’s puzzling.We are being told that recovery will be in three years, so that means we should be ok by 2021/22.
    Then we are being told that the program will have achieved its goals by 2033. That’s fifteen years.
    Help !!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  • “What are the special qualities possessed by Dr Greenidge .”

    Dr. Greenidge WORKS FOR IMF…and is being SECONDED to Barbados government as an ADVISOR, which makes perfect sense seeing the amount of corrupt, criminal minded demons now squatting in the parliament without consequences and with the same freedoms they have had for decades…to sell out the people and help their minority masters tief the IMF loan money….

    Liked by 1 person

  • @William Skinner your comprehension skills are kinda poor. The 2033 target is to get the debt to GDP ratio, currently at 171% to 65%. the 2021 target is for sustainable growth. You have to set realistic targets, otherwise you would be making a mockery.

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  • As i say Intelluctual corruption would be the plan going forward
    Look after the IMF agree to lending the people money
    A govt spokesperson stated Word that the Hyatt will be built by 2020 maybe so done to induced investor confidence a confidence eroded by govt default on debt
    A read of Hyatt daily news letter has not reference to or have said nothing of the sort
    All details concerning the HYatt and its intial and final stages if true would have been stated in any one of their news letter
    The Intelluctual corruption all fromulated out of lies and deceit would continue
    Even David has found himsrlf caught up in this vicious cycle of intelluctal corruption where alternatives views and the voices critical of this govt are silenced

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  • “What’s up with Caswell?
    Did the Pain&Teets show ruffle his feathers?
    Or it is Mia that has muzzled him now that he is a big-up?”

    Caswell fell into their well orchestrated trap with the stolen Stewart Estate affair, not much he can say now, there was a bigger trap waiting for him, but because of the worldwide exposure…this trap had to be hurriedly sprung first..

    Trap #2 is more than likely a no go now, too much heat on all of them..

    Poor soul, he does not know those demons as well as he thought he did.

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  • Wily has not been a fan of Dr Worrell, however his proposal looks to be significantly better than the BERT being offered by the BLP. Oh yes were yet to see the BLP BERT PLAN in written detail. Dr Worrell’s plan appears to be a SOFT vs DRACONIAN approach to Barbados financial issues, this is no doubt to ease the populace into whats required and can be adjusted according to the results. Dr Worrell is correct in assuming BARBADOS needs heavy handed supervision and monitoring if ANY PLAN has any chance of success.

    Wily thinks the only approach, that may work, is DEVALUATION, let Barbados dollar float and this will bring Bajans back to reality whether they like it or not. Hopefully this will result in sound politician thinking and direction which will result in a SLOW SOUND RECOVERY over the future generations.

    Suspect Barbados though will follow it’s past practices, lots of talk and little or no action.

    Liked by 1 person

  • William@8.11am
    What do you think of Backoo’s comments @8.24am

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  • Is Barbados insolvent?

    After running many years of budget deficits what are sustainable options?

    Yardfowls need not respond.

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  • Northern Observer

    @Backooful
    No question DrW is an odd ball, but he is no fool. He simply kept quiet for too long; then again he likely knew the consequences.
    His solution is the ‘pure’ financial play. It can work. But will erode political capital quickly.
    The politically more friendly option is ‘meet me halfway’. The savings in the debt restructuring, while significant, are not enough. So you have to cull, but less than DrW proposes. And I suspect the SOE’s have some healthy expenses which can be slashed. The risk is revenue projection shortfalls, which must be monitored carefully.

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  • @ Gabriel

    I think like you and any body else , he is entitled to his interpretation.

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  • I think Hal got it right Barbados is a failed state
    Present govt has all but confirmed that conclusion when they turned to the Constitution to help them steal retiree savings

    Liked by 1 person

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