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Who is Dr. Justin Robinson Trying to Convince?

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Dr. Justin Robinson weeks after issuing a vacuous statement about the state of the NIS Fund is at it again. This time with an even more muddled and muddied message under the title CLOSER LOOK AT DOWNGRADES. The BU household tried- in vain- to understand the objective of Robinson’s exercise to explain what the credit rating downgrades mean for Barbados.

  1. Did the Barbados based company Sagicor have to redomicile to Bermuda because our tanking credit rating weighed heavy like an albatross around the necks of the shareholders?
  2. Is it a fact the international commercial banks cannot extend credit to a sovereign country with a risk weighting of C?
  3. Is it a fact the bond market will ignore Barbados as an investment option because respectable pension and mutual funds have exclusions in the terms which prevent fund managers from investing in junk?
  4. Is it true that Barbados has to borrow on the capital market to shore up reserves to cover maturing debt and this translates to higher cost to the borrower (Barbados)?
  5. Last but not least, how do 20 downgrades affect the confidence of a once proud nation?
  6. Please update Barbadians on the status of the project to have ALL of NIS Financials audited and presented to the PEOPLE!
  7. The people deserve to read the most recent NIS Actuarial Study for themselves. It is our damn fund and the management of it should be transparent!

Have a read of Robinson’s article and explain for 10 marks. Marks will be deducted if there is no working presented!

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159 responses to “Who is Dr. Justin Robinson Trying to Convince?”

  1. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    David
    There is no difference between Robinson and George Braithwaite
    They perform the same political function.

  2. David Avatar
    David

    @Pacha

    Brathwaite does not Chair the NIS Scheme or sit on the Board of the Central Bank or is responsible for rationalizing SOEs and so on.

  3. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    All that is true but in a shadow cabinet or its equal he could be.

  4. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    Robinson and Braithwaite no more than useful idiots for the political parties

  5. Chad99999 Avatar
    Chad99999

    Why is David pounding the Government every day with unfair attacks? Especially when he must know what a disaster the know-nothing fake lawyer waiting to take over the top job will be.

    Justin acknowledges our precarious financial position. What else do you want him to say? It is disgraceful for Pacha to compare his statement to the cotton-candy propaganda of GB.

  6. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    Some people in Bim mix up national pride and stupidity.

    The decisive question is indeed: “Is it true that Barbados has to borrow on the capital market to shore up reserves to cover maturing debt and this translates to higher cost to the borrower (Barbados)?” Answer: There are no private lenders anymore. C is toxic wasteland for private lenders, some kind of St. Michael North West where bloody masscares mean business as usual.

    External devaluation is coming. Mark my words. Every currency has to mirror the economic facts, not some sort of national pride. We already face massive internal devaluation. Soon Mickey Mouse will replace the national heros on the notes.

  7. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    “The credit rating focuses on the ability of the government to service its debt when they fall due, as a way to provide guidance to investors in government bonds, not to pronounce on the overall health or well-being of an economy, or act as a sort of referendum on government’s economic policies.”

    Dr. Robinson’s explanation relative to the ROLE of credit rating agencies is fair.

    All he is trying to say is that the credit rating agencies main concern is NOT the “economic health” of a country……..

    ……….. but to inform creditors if that country can adequately meet its debt obligations when they become due.

    However, what “confuses” a lay person such as me, is Dr. Robinson’s comment re: “Today, with the economy PROJECTED to grow by around 1.75% and the deficit EXPECTED to be 40% or less, we have yet another downgrade. How does this make any sense?”

    The following information from S&P’s report explains the agency’s rationale behind the downgrade:

    “The decline in international reserves reduces Barbados’ capacity to defend the currency peg and increases the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.”
    “Flexibility and performance profile: Rising debt and interest burden, limited financing alternatives, and high external vulnerabilities.”
    “Financing sources have become increasingly limited over the last five years.”
    “Financing from bilateral and multilateral lenders has slowed, in part, as Barbados has been SLOW to SATISFY CONDITIONS for disbursement and advance projects associated with borrowing.”
    “However, a WEAK TRACK RECORD of EXECUTION, the INTRODUCTION of the MEASURES HALF WAY INTO the FISCAL YEAR, the likely overestimation of one-off revenues, and political considerations while moving to an election year in 2018 leads us to assume that the measures will fall short of balancing Barbados’ budget this year and next.”
    “Private-sector confidence in the current government has fallen on INEFFECTIVE and SLOW POLICY responses. This includes recurrent delays in many investment projects, the FAILURE to ENACT a COMPREHENSIVE fiscal adjustment plan, and declines in international reserves.”
    “TRANSPARENCY and timeliness of data publication are also WEAKER than higher-rated sovereigns.”
    “Finally, in our view, DATA on Barbados’ international investment position have INCONSISTENCIES and are not timely.”

    Perhaps Dr. Robinson should also explain the above information.

  8. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    You like to beat up on Dr JR? You expected more from him?

    He didn’t lie. He told us we are on the edge. That Banks and Insurance firms (BI) may/may not rollover bonds/debentures, and are unlikely to invest NEW monies. That the NIS has NO new money, but will rollover. And nobody else, other than Alvin Cummins and other GoB entities, are lining up to buy CCC rated investments. “The uncertainty about the rolling over of existing bonds and the ability of the government to borrow new money is at the heart of the credit rating challenge for Barbados, along with the high level of debt and low reserves.”

    IF they (BI) don’t rollover, the GoB has to find the $$$$ to pay them. Even if they do rollover, there is no new money. That means they are reliant on the CBB to print more money.

    And since 2014, this money printing has doubled the Bajan $$ in circulation. As the Fx reserves drop, holding a 2:1 peg becomes harder. We have +/- $2.1 billion Bds circulating, and Fx reserves of +/- $300 million.

    And the MoF’s track record in accurately predicting annual revenue vs expenses, is abysmal. A continued fiscal imbalance means the GoB needs more cash, and the debt grows by more than natural causes. So for Dr JR to use those projections as any accurate gauge, is a waste of time, and equal to professional misconduct.

    This swamp has so many drains, it is not like having a spouse and a deputy, it is like have a spouse and 5 deputies.

  9. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    The paragraph that Artax quotes ”“However, ….’

    That is critical. Possibly THE most critical aspect of all written, despite the horrid figures. Adjustments can always be made, action taken. But, the rating agency demonstrates a complete lack of confidence in the government to deliver on any improvements.

    Much as anyone with commonsense really. They are not being exceptionally clever, just reading the recent , past one to eight years history and making a decision on that.

    The bajan saying ‘up duck’s guts’ seems to apply.

    When is the election again?

    Let us hope not too many contracts get rushed through in these next eight months and if any are, will the opposition have sufficient gumption to promise to investigate them fully and cancel them as necessary?

    Some would argue that you cannot cancel a contract, but if the circumstances are suspect, of course you can.

  10. Jeff Cumberbatch Avatar
    Jeff Cumberbatch

    Some would argue that you cannot cancel a contract, but if the circumstances are suspect, of course you can.

    @ Crusoe, Of course you can, but you must also be prepared to pay appropriate compensation to the victim of your breach of contract..

  11. David Avatar
    David

    @Northerobserver

    The intention is not to beat up on Dr.Robinson at all. We are simple applying the doctrine that to whom much is given much is expected. Given his all pervasive role on important Boards of SOES it is not enough to distribute ‘fluff’ in the public space. We want to see demonstrated discrete steps taken as it concerns the entities in the stable he manages.

  12. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    If the DLP and its members are so confident when it comes to the Barbadian economy: Why don´t they buy 10 million BBD in government bonds per day to save the country?

  13. angela Skeete Avatar
    angela Skeete

    David BU why dont you read with understanding and a measure if reasonableness Dr.Robinson comments instead of pretending to be a
    Quasi economist.
    Dr. Robinson in no way have attempted to dismiss the risk of having a negative credit rating. However he has rightfully used his discourse with relevant information to pinpoint that the issues that are driving the downgrades does not take into consideration the social enviroment of a country which is equally as important as matters pertaining to the downgrades
    Btw David BU where did you obtain your economic degree or are you like Mia pretending to be a qualified lawyer

  14. Roverp Avatar
    Roverp

    Slight of HAND!!! Instead of dealing with issues we playing games!!!!

  15. Roverp Avatar
    Roverp

    I would not even discuss Dr. Robinson…..I would prefer to discuss intellectual failure in BIM.

  16. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Chad99999 October 2, 2017 at 10:44 PM
    “Why is David pounding the Government every day with unfair attacks..”

    You call them “unfair attacks”?

    So what would you call the attacks levied by JR’s former colleague on the Central Bank’s Board of Directors, another fake doctor in bullshit Prof. Deliar Worstwell? Critical analysis in the form of sour grapes?

    It would be most refreshing to hear the objective analysis of the ramifications of the recent downgrade and fast disappearing foreign exchange reserves from this fallen and disgraced Lord God Almighty economist who used to paint Barbados as the best managed economy in the West during his tenure as the biggest numbers manipulator and statistician of outstanding magical excellence.

    What Dr. JR the quack and his former Chairman on the Central Bank Board are saying is what they have been repeating ad nauseam for the longest of time.

    Just the perennial bullshit of identification of the problems without offering or implementing the solutions which were so succinctly proposed in the Finance Ministerial statement delivered in December 2013 but still awaiting execution just like the many contained in all budget presentations by that Minister of Failures.

    When the same academic quack and intellectual fraud can meet his contractual obligations of delivering the NIS audited financials now clearly outside the legally allocated timeframe his professional aspirations might just be considered for acceptance by the regulatory body of competence and integrity.

    Dr. JR and Co are cut from the same bolt of cloth of technical incompetence and intellectual paucity you have so often alluded to as the bane of third world countries ‘managed’ by black people pretending to be first world intellectuals of the ilk of the Chad the 9×5 holder of 3 Masters, 2 PhD’s and membership of every professional body under the Sun while having the time to be a devout 24/7/365 Roman Catholic choir ‘boy’ instead of joining the clergy to become a perfect cardinal in line to be the next Pontificate.

    It boggles the mind how a “man” of your intellectual apotheosis could fall for the biggest con ever perpetrated against the most naïve of humanity; the scam of Roman Catholicism hidden in the reality of stolen paganism.

    “The Christian religion is a parody on the worship of the sun, in which they put a man called Christ in the place of the sun, and pay him the adoration originally payed to the sun.”
    “All institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian, or Turkish, appear to me no other than human inventions set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit.”

    ~ Thomas Paine.

  17. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    We remember the good old days when Robinson was trusted by BY
    Maybe this has lessons for us all

  18. Fractured BLP Avatar
    Fractured BLP

    Dr. Robinson is the best economist in Barbados 🇧🇧

    There is none to compare …

    Miller & Artax ….. are neophytes compared to Dr. Robinson.

  19. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    Is Dr Robinson an economist or mathematician?

  20. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Fractured BLP October 3, 2017 at 10:59 AM

    And all along we thought that supreme pride of place was taken up Dr.Deliar Worell who advised your administration up to the time of his unceremoniously disgraceful dismissal resulting in him naming and shaming the hard-headed boy from the Garrison who can’t tell the difference between his decimated elbow and his f(r)actional arse.

    If Dr. JR a classroom-based management guru is the best ‘practicing’ economist in Bim, then Stinkliar your mercurial colleague, by deduction, is the greatest mathematician to boot.

    Now you can figure out why your Sir Lloyd has the irritatingly runny guts to ask: How did we get back here? Especially when oil prices have been at their lowest for the last decade.

    Can’t you imagine what the Bajan economy would look like if oil prices were at their highest unleashing an impact of hurricane fury on the foreign reserves equivalent to a Maria.

  21. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    @Hal Austin October 3, 2017 at 11:04 AM “Is Dr Robinson an economist or mathematician?”
    https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/fss/mgmt/staff/academic/accounting-and-finance/justin-robinson.aspx
    Dr. Justin Robinson

  22. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @Blogmaster
    I can be sarcastic?

  23. angela Skeete Avatar
    angela Skeete

    Dr. Justin Robinson is not only a credited scholar in the field of financial and mathematical economics but also understand and studied the physcholgy that drives these international rating agencies formulated out of an intensive mindset to do the bidding of the international loan agencies without giving much thought as to whether or not this intensity ruins small islands social enviroment.
    His voice is one that needs to be heard more often as a buffer to clam the fear which these govts feel more often than not when having to face the negative conclusions of rating agencies

  24. angela Skeete Avatar
    angela Skeete

    Dr Justin Robinson soeaks on a higher level of intellect that would certainly not attract or find favour with small mi ded people
    David puts pen to paper and scribbles what he belives to be of relevance to building an economy having only a microscopic view of what he hears but having no professional view point borne out of a scholarly or educated opinion
    If David is so well educated in economics for as many years as he has been adminstrator of BU i dare say he missed his calling by a mile.No?

  25. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @miller
    “Now you can figure out why your Sir Lloyd has the irritatingly runny guts to ask: How did we get back here?”

    The deeper truth, is when the Sir Lioyd admin was in a hole, they went to the private sector. The Fx reserves were low, but the balance sheet was tolerable. Initially they wanted to exchange Grantleys for Fx, but the private sector said ‘not so fast’, we will use our credit to organize an Fx loan, but YOU are responsible for the loan. And it worked. Then again, Sir Lloyd and his group had a relationship with the private sector. And the public balance sheet was not in the mess it is today.

  26. David Avatar
    David

    Interesting contribution by a caller today discussing the effect of the expanded monetary supply and excess liquidity in the Barbados system. His point is that with a government unable to soakup the liquidity it will continue to give banks the option to force interest rates to near 0. The Central Bank can’t print money, the government can’t issue Tbills. If you lick you lick up!

    This is the kind of national conversation Robinson and cohorts should be leading.

  27. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    Interesting contribution by a caller today discussing the effect of the expanded monetary supply and excess liquidity in the Barbados system.

    Was this caller familiar with macroeconomics? Removing this liquidity which runs the risk of creating an asset price bubble, the key danger from printing money, is lesson one in economics 101.

  28. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @Hal Austin October 3, 2017 at 11:04 AM “Is Dr Robinson an economist or mathematician?”

    angela Skeete October 3, 2017 at 12:39 PM #

    Dr. Justin Robinson is not only a credited scholar in the field of financial and mathematical economics…….

    Angela, I suggest you read Robert Lucas on the use of econometric models in economics. I suggest that econometrics is more a branch of statistics than it is main stream economics and lends very little to economic theory. (Read Larry Summers, Obama’s former economic guru, in : “The scientific illusion in empirical macroeconomics”

    @Angela Skeete, in the meantime, plse post a list of Dr Robinson’s peer reviewed economic articles.

  29. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    “The Central Bank can’t print money”….why not?

  30. angela Skeete Avatar
    angela Skeete

    Hal for people like you only if what said is coming from a pale face it matters
    Dr.Justin comments goes to a physchology divide between govt and International financial institutions and there purposeful intent to dismiss what other factors that are inherent in building an economy

  31. David Avatar
    David

    They can print but what sense does it make given the current level of the monetary base listed to be 6 or 7:1?

  32. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @Angela Skeete

    I know it is a Bajan tradition to be obstructive when questioned about their strong beliefs. All I asked for – and Justin can reply as I know he reads BU – is a list of one or two of his peer-reviewed essays on economics.
    There are great divides within economic theory, schools of thought, people hold strong views and after reading economic subjects for decades, some of the sweeping claims you get in BU I find baffling. It is like the claims of foreign reserves, a notion trapped in post-war Brettons Woods economic theory which does not take in to consideration any post 1970s developments.
    Shouting loudest does not mean anything; decibel levels do not determine reason.

  33. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    LOL….it didn’t make much sense at 4:1 or 5:1 either, but that didn’t deter them.

  34. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    If you really wish to warm up the discussion, ask what private assets should be nationalized.

  35. angela Skeete Avatar
    angela Skeete

    No one has no set standard as to what is right or wrong for any economy. The melt down of the global economy is a prime example of where one sets of standarized rules or model were all wrong.
    Dr.Robinson might not meet the conservative economic criteria of some of the rating agencies in his assement but his conclusion goes deep to the root of what financial refuses to include and when if avoided can rub harshly against the social enviroment of a country

  36. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    @NorthernObserver October 3, 2017 at 3:16 PM “If you really wish to warm up the discussion, ask what private assets should be nationalized.”

    To quote a dear friend of mine, it seems as though you don’t like a riot, but that you too love a war.

    Lolll!!!

  37. David Avatar
    David

    @NO

    Note Sinckler is rejoicing about the NSRL meeting target, 50 million raked in so far of the targeted 200 million.

  38. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    http://www.jstor.org/stable/25830927?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
    CORPORATE FINANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN ANALYSIS OF DIVIDEND POLICY AMONG PUBLICLY LISTED FIRMS IN JAMAICA
    C. Justin Robinson

  39. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    angela Skeete October 3, 2017 at 4:20 PM #

    Plse explain the global meltdown? Is this post-2008?

  40. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/fss/mgmt/publications/effective-management.aspx
    Effective Management and Culture: An Analysis of Three English Speaking Countries
    Betty Jane Punnett, Emily Dick-Forde, Justin Robinson

  41. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/fss/mgmt/publications/aspects-of-the-caribbean.aspx
    Aspects of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy: How Integrated Are Regional Stock Markets?
    Justin Robinson

  42. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/fss/mgmt/publications/international-perspectives.aspx
    International perspectives on corporate finance: the Lintner model and dividend policy among publicly listed firms in Barbados
    C. Justin Robinson

  43. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @Simple Simon,

    Organisational Behaviour, Human Resource & Strategic Management

    Accounting, Investment and Financial Management

    Are these the peer-reviewed articles on economics?

  44. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    Market Efficiency, Sovereign Debt Restructuring And Credit Ratings In Developing Countries
    Authors
    C Justin Robinson, Prosper F Bangwayo-Skeete
    Publication date
    2017
    Journal
    Applied Econometrics and International Development
    Volume
    17
    Issue
    1
    Pages
    5-18
    Publisher
    Euro-American Association of Economic Development
    Description
    Abstract The paper investigates the investor’s sensitivity to the announcements of nine
    sovereign debt restructurings and 50 credit rating reviews on six stock markets across the
    Caribbean. Using event study methodology, while controlling for thin-trading, the study
    found no stock price reaction to the credit rating announcements that occurred over 2000-
    2015. Prices on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, however, reacted to the announcement of two
    sovereign debt restructurings. In one case, the stock price reaction was delayed and …

  45. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    The Information Content of Dividend Announcements: Evidence From Frontier Markets with Varying Tax Regimes
    Authors
    Carl Justin Robinson, Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete
    Publication date
    2017/1/19
    Description
    Abstract: This study provides further insight into the information content of dividends by
    investigating stock price reaction to the announcement of cash dividends in the unique
    environments presented by Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. In the case of Jamaica, we
    document a positive relationship between stock prices and dividend announcements during
    the period when the tax rate on dividends was 25% and the capital gains tax 0%, but no
    relationship when the tax rate on dividends fell from 25% to 5% with the capital gains tax …

  46. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Jamaica
    Authors
    Alton Best, Brian M Francis, C Justin Robinson
    Publication date
    2017/2
    Journal
    Global Business Review
    Volume
    18
    Issue
    1
    Pages
    1-18
    Publisher
    SAGE Publications
    Description
    The paper empirically examines the question of whether bank liquid reserves to bank assets
    ratio and domestic credit to private sector as a percentage of GDP strengthens financial
    deepening on the real sector and hence catalyzes economic growth in Jamaica. A Granger
    causality approach is employed within a multivariate framework. Cointegration is used to
    examine the short-and long-run relationships within the model. Innovative accounting
    techniques (impulse response function and variance decomposition) are also utilized to …

  47. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    Corporate Ownership and Management in Small Island Developing States: Implications for Academia, Public Policy and Management Practices
    Authors
    Carl Justin Robinson
    Publication date
    2017/5/14
    Description
    Abstract This paper analyses the ownership structure of publicly listed corporations in
    seventeen Small Island Developing States. The paper identifies the ultimate controlling
    shareholders of these firms, the identity of these shareholders, whether or not ultimate
    shareholders are involved in management and how ultimate shareholders maintain control
    over firms. The study finds that the large majority of publicly listed firms in SIDS have a
    dominant shareholder, that dominant shareholder is typically a family or the state, the …

  48. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    How does news impact on the stock prices of green firms in emerging markets?
    Authors
    Justin Robinson, Adrian Glean, Winston Moore
    Publication date
    2017/7/23
    Journal
    Research in International Business and Finance
    Publisher
    Elsevier
    Description
    Abstract Firms around the globe have enhanced their green credentials as a means of
    increasing competitiveness and improving firm performance. The literature on firms and
    news suggests that stock prices of most firms tends to be very responsive to news items in
    the short-term. However, many green companies make investments or are working in
    industries where the payoffs are likely to be obtained more in the medium-term. There is
    therefore good reason to believe that the stock prices of these firms would be less …

  49. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    Semi-strong Form Market Efficiency in Stock Markets with Low Levels of Trading Activity: Evidence from Stock Price Reaction to Major National and International Events
    Authors
    C Justin Robinson, Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete
    Publication date
    2017/9/6
    Journal
    Global Business Review
    Pages
    0972150917721768
    Publisher
    SAGE Publications
    Description
    This study uses the event study methodology to explore semi-strong form market efficiency
    in the context of low levels of trading activity. Covering six frontier stock markets, it
    investigates stock price reaction to major national news events that include natural disasters,
    parliamentary elections and credit rating reviews and the international events such as
    international terrorist incidents, major events surrounding the 2007/2008 sub-prime
    mortgage crisis and the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership in the European …

  50. Simple Simon Avatar
    Simple Simon

    Parliamentary Elections and Frontier Stock Markets: Evidence from Stock Market Reaction to General Elections in the Commonwealth Caribbean
    Authors
    C Justin Robinson, Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete
    Publication date
    2017/10
    Journal
    Global Business Review
    Volume
    18
    Issue
    5
    Pages
    1077-1088
    Publisher
    SAGE Publications
    Description
    This study is the first to investigate stock price reaction to parliamentary elections in the
    Commonwealth Caribbean. The study finds that parliamentary elections have a statistically
    significant effect on stock prices in the Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and
    Tobago, but no effect in the Eastern Caribbean and Guyana. The evidence suggests that
    equity investors in the Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago have an
    opinion on the prospects for their investments under different political administrations and …

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