The most recent CADRES poll which surprised many that DLP leader Fruendel Stuart had eased pass Arthur has been reversed. Under pressure to explain the weekend poll which bucked a trend, Head of CADRES Peter Wickham took the sensible decision to redo the poll. The euphoria displayed by the DLPites has been short lived because the new poll has Arthur leading Stuart 37% to 32% with a 7% swing in play.
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I want to see the egg on Bobby Morris’ face. When the January poll showed Arthur leading, the Dems rubbished it and even cast aspersions on the charcter of Wickham.
Two early observations:
Expect Arthur to go on the offensive from tomorrow.
Wickham’s reputation will take a big hit right or wrong because BU’s position stands, polls can be opinion-shapers and the flawed poll will impact the dynamic of the election leading into Thursday 21, 2013.
Polls should be banned after the dissolution of Parliament or at the very latest after Nomination Day. Don’t worry about Wickham’s reputation: he bounced after the Wiki leaks spy revelation.
Sent from my iPad
like i said, Peter will get curse black is white.
Of note FS is still talking at Eagle Hall.
@David
have we confirmed that it was a “flawed” poll or was it a “snapshot” in time. I agree it seems to have had some errors in the analysis and knowing Wickham he wouldn’t want to damage his track record so another poll was reasonable.
I”m curious to how the DLP will spin this one, since they sung the praises of Sunday’s poll even after Bobby initially said don’t bother about the results. Many here (and myself) warned DLPites about celebrating. A day indeed is a long time in politics.
the combination of Sunday’s poll, the “note”, and this new “offensive” by the DLP on Arthur will awaken the leviathon that is the BLP. I sense they’ve been holding back a lot. As I said in another post, if you’re going to go for the head shot as the DLP seemed to be doing, it has to be swift, surgical and with a head on a spear for everyone to see when the sun rises. The DLP have not accomplished that yet and they may very well pay even more dearly than first thought for the missed opportunity. Anything now on their end will seem like naked desperation.
Just Observing
@David (not BU)
Why is the PM so late?
The DLPites are very silent. They should cheer up, a few positives in the poll, Stuarts approval rating is trending in the right direction given the large % of wont say.undecided.
This is amazing stuff! However I believe the Arthur giveaways will swing the City and a few other St.Michael constinuentcies in favour of the BLP. I had Todd, Sealy, and Blackett winning before the manifesto launch. The Dees need to push real hard in St.Michael to have chance at winning.
don’t know listening but he is not saying a lot.
@Observing(…)
@David
have we confirmed that it was a “flawed” poll or was it a “snapshot” in time. I agree it seems to have had some errors in the analysis and knowing Wickham he wouldn’t want to damage his track record so another poll was reasonable.
Will reserve comment until Wickham gives a fuller explanation of the ‘flawed poll’. George Belle seems inclined to agree with you that the result of the weekend poll has to d with the DLP gearing up which generated the bump, we are not convinced.
Hallam Nichols promised last night that the BLP will deliver its own bomb at NCF tonight. Expect the DLP to respond, Pegasus video???
To hell with the MANIFESTOS!!!
i think Donville will be in a spot of trouble after tonite from what i’m hearing. the question is if the BLP drop bombshell will about him, can he bring down Chris, Estwick and Ester?
David? you believe in big foot?
@David (not BU)
Where are you going with it? Hope you are not making a association with the PM.
No, i would never do that but the association is with the Pegasus video.
This is the first time I have heard of a poll being redone.
A new poll could not be correct and the results would be skewed by the fact the first supposedly flawed poll was made public.
The true poll will be on the 21st.
@David
“Expect the DLP to respond, Pegasus video???”
It will be too late. Remember Operation Bang Bang? The DLP have played out their chess hand with respect to time remaining. Such is the cost of calling elections late, within a three week frame, and waiting til the last week to attempt a ‘head shot.” it’s like basketball. With 38 seconds left in the game, you have to go for a quick basket so the opponent has to use his full 24 seconds, leaving you with 10-12 seconds to decide what you’ll do to seal the deal. The DLP used up all of their shot clock. The BLP have the ball with seconds remaining.
@Adrian Hinds
I believe the DLP should have conceded 3 St. Michael seats from since 2012 (18-12), then fight like hell for 2/3 of the remaining 4 (16-14/17-13), spend like mad to pick up 1 maybe 2 current BLP seats (18-12) to offset the 2 inevitable losses elsewhere (16-14) while using existing strengths and boundaries to shore up St. Philip and Christ Church to keep the slim margin.
But hey, no one ever asks me for strategic help. I’m just a plain old Observer.
My current tally: 18-10 BLP with two stubborn undecided seats.
Will revisit by Wednesday.
@David(not BU)
Esther is done. Chris already brought down about 2 seats with his comments. Lowe singlehandedly brought down Hutson for good. Donville’s expose will shake up things a bit because the suspicion/perception is already there and, he’s seen as the “heir apparent” after Chris. The DLP should be careful what they wish for. The Sunday poll, the note, and the non-stop Arthur attacks will awaken the literal beast that is the BLP.
btw, despite leadership ratings, it still only ranks as an approx. 8% issue on people’s minds. the DLP bet the bank on that 8%. Go figure.
Just Observing
Duguid has been repeating that the USA has a freedom of information act.
Canada also has a freedom of information act.
This election will go down in Barbados history as one of the most divisive ever.
Let us see who has the best new bombshell announcements between now and Wednesday.
David
This is pure nonsense. In my view its nothing more that powerful forces trying to shape public opinion so that when they flood Barbados with money on Election Day it is camouflaged and they have a plausable reason for the win besides the millions and millions on dollars used to rig this election.
This smells of Trinidad and if Donville ends up with his neck in a political noose for some improper conduct then he’ll have his ‘good’ friend Peter Harris from Barbados Today to consider.
I have gone no where, the dlp will win all the st. phillip and snd chirst chur seats except one. my prediction has alwasys that this will be a close election and the undecider voters will make a difference, for the first time i have read a pater analysis, and i have read it on barbados today and the undecided are breaking towards decency.
One question i will ask, were the same people sampled, or they were different people.
I am one who follows polls. I don’t bash polling. What I would bash is this. If you suspect you have done a poll at any given time that may have a flawed result, why not redo the poll before going public with the results. Why do a poll, then question the results you have already made public, then to return to the field to do another one?
We are giving an authority to Polls that they do not merit and thus falling into the trap of allowing our general election to be manipulated by a few for their own sectional interest.
This has become a Psychological war in which expectations are thwarted to repel SWING and SURGE.
The only poll that really matters is the one on election day. Consider the candidates, what they have done or failed to do. What you expect of them, their various attributes, their ability to deliver what they have promised and their core INTEGRITY to the standards expected of a democratic government.
Then vote.
You and only you will be responsible for where and to whom you deliver that important X. Job done.
…
I see no problem with polls. If the Sunday poll did anything, it would have scared some silly, who were complacent expecting change, those would have garnered their thoughts after seeing that poll, so it would have assisted BLP in turnout come voting day.
On this second poll, it is what it is.
I see no reason to stop polls, they have proved useful.
That said, I was always of the view for the last six months that Wickham’s initial poll prediction of 20/10 to BLP is conservative.
I dont think the BLP manifesto will change or has changed much, all I think it has done is solidify the BLP position.
I said a while back on these blogs that which way it would go and I still expect that.
There are numerous reasons which I wont expand on, why bother now.
Let us hope that the new government give Mia Mottley her rightful place, s all I hope for.
Best Wishes to all.
Based on something someone said above, what exactly did Donville say to put him in trouble???
Hallam Nichols promised last night that the BLP will deliver its own bomb at NCF tonight. Expect the DLP to respond, Pegasus video???
HALLAM NICHOLS IS PURPORTEDLY TAINTED AND SHOULD HE NOT BE AVOIDEDBY THE BLP LIKE OW THEY ARE ASKING HE DPTO AVOID MR PARRIS.
IGNORE THE POLLS AND THE GAMES
LET US LOOK AT SUBSTANCE
DLP HAS NO SUBSTANCE
*****************************
FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS , they were running around gloating about the poll results. IDIOTS ! when the polls were against them , they cussed the polls. SHOULDA keep quiet BUT I HEAR big-guts, cigar smoking -whore breeder –SEALY gloating about Freundel being ahead –COMMONSENSE seems to have deserted the DLP
They dont even know when they are being set up for a combination KNOCK-OUT PUNCH
The real poll is COMING
The real result
BLP = 26 SEATS
DLP = 3 SEATS
@Oilman | February 19, 2013 at 3:38 AM | In all the pre-election hysteria, yours is the ONLY comment that smacks the nail right on the head.
@Observing. I too warned about over-confidence. But if I may, I should like to point out that this applies to BOTH sides and I think you MAY find that neither side has yet fired its big weapons. I suspect that there is MUCH more excitement to come. What these weapons consist of, I do not know. That they exist, I DO know. Very exciting times.
@Yardbroom. I would guess that, like me, you can’t wait to see the results of the real poll to be taken on Thursday. You see, I think most voters will have made up their minds by now and I think the ammunition about Donville and this Pegasus video have already been used, and repeatedly used, on BFP. I suspect that there is no knockout punch in them. But, like Observing, I am just an onlooker.
@Amused
I appreciate your comments. Amused, the reality is that I am neither red nor yellow. I try to be very objective especially when it comes to party politics. I have serious issues with people who support anything without trying to be honest and fair when assessing the reality of it all.
I think Wickham is a professional and I have up to now thought that despite his biases, he tries to be objective when he does his polling. However, I think on this occasion he has forced many who would have supported him in the past, to now have reservations about his integrity or the lack thereof.
If the process of polling can produce a result that is so far from reality ( a so called wobble) and then in quick time, a subsequent poll held a mere couple of days after can now debunk the ‘wobbled poll’ I think we have a problem. So any poll result that fails to capture the true reality of a given scenario under investigation can now be easily brushed off as a ‘wobble’. This does not sit well with me as someone who believes that polling has much relevance in the political process.
I said on this blog that there was conflict between peter and those who commisssioned the poll, because it did got give the sponsors the outcome they wanted and hance the redoing of the polls.
was the methodolgy flawed and did peter, an experienced pollster know that the methodoly was flawed and why would he have published the result. As I said, i have not read the polls, because i know polls can be manipulated and i am now convinced that peter bowed to pressure to give the sponsors the result they wanted to hear. again, the uncertain voter will decide the out come of the elections.
@Yardbroom
One cannot ignore polls and BU agrees with Caswell that polling should be banned a month or two before any election because it is an opinion shaper. BU will revise our picks this evening but we are still going with the BLP at this stage – see BU Picks.
@TO THE POINT
I am afraid I have to appreciate that what you said concerning Wickham and pressure from sponsors cannot be ruled out.
the games has finally began.now we have a twoheaded beast driving and manipulating the masses.. by now everyone is confused , the question is in what direction are we heading and who an the people TRUST!
@ac
So if it is a two headed beast as you say who are the people to trust?
On the brighter side these polls have become a blessing in the disguise since they have embolden and mobilise the electorate to go out and vote. the greatest irony of these polls is that Wickham may also become a casualty and the master of his own undoing losing his credibilty and selfrespect something that OSA yearns for. .
What will happen now is that both parties will ‘go-gutter’ and attempting to discuss the issues which confront our country will be jettison. We never learn.
David at this point the people are the masters of their own destiny and they must think hard and long on the many choices put before them. however my choice would be COUNTRY FIRST! the person who has the BEST INTEREST and the social and economic future of this country at heart for the long term would obviously be the person to choose. NO magic or gimmicks ! No self interest involved! COUNTRY FIRST IS A MUST in developing a barbados all can be PROUD OF but one must be neither RED or BLUE but a DIE HARD PATRIOT. putting self interest last and country interest FIRST. that is the only way to destroyed the annoying and manipulative two headed beast that roam this island and wants to take over.
Polls are just a statistical sample taken at a point in time. Why should Wickham’s credability be in question.
Nonsense. If anyone thinks a poll is ironclad, read up on statistical sampling.
Further, why should polls be banned? Is campaigning banned?
Again, dont see it. If parties are that shallow that they need polls to asist their result, then woe betide us.
That said, I think it is already woe bedite us if one is to assess the reactions to such nonsense as is being displayed by some adverts and supposed ‘discloures’ One person above after referring to ‘pre-election hysteria’ noted these as ‘exciting times’??? Exactly who is hysteric?
What? Is one so easily swayed by gibberish and deceit to change vote for such nonsense?
As they say, a people get the government they deserve.
Errata above ‘supposed disclosures’.
BTW i have been informed that many loyal oversees DEMS are on the island to cast their vote and others are on their way .
@ac
What you just posted makes no sense but your are entitled to your view. What we need is a fullcourt press from all stakeholders – the media, Church and other NGOs – to pressure political parties and to create a system where people can have more control of the system. Currently the politicos have all the say. This partisan nonsense supported by a growing level of sponsorization is heading in the wrong direction. We have other countries to view what is inevitable if we continue.
Should a third poll be taken to break this polling deadlock? hahaha
look crusoe it is disturbing. when a pollster well known in field that being wickham can change the results of a poll at the drop of a hat it points to his credibility and something says in the gut” it doesn”t seem right” you know i have never had confidence in his polls and to others like myself it only proves us right. there is something very disturbing throughout the process and smacks of racketeering and not professionalism.
A poll should be done about wickham to see how many TRUST him
@Crusoe
You are missing the plot here. You have a definition of a poll which is correct. You need to go further. You don’t agree that a poll can influence a population which maybe you and others have describes as sheep in the past? We are saying that polling should be banned a month or two before an election to give the participants space to participate in the campaign process; in this case those with a vested interest in the process the PEOPLE.
WEll David if the educated people of barbados must have people to tell them how to think then we are in big trouble, cause people only look out for themselves and nobody going to be truthful and out front with the people.
AC a plane full of DEMS won’t change the results LOLL Sounds like you are desperate to get votes. I wonder who paying for these overseas DEMS tickets?
@ac
There will always be leaders and followers, nothing knew here. It is one of the chinks in our system of democracy – ALL have the right to vote BUT some lack the reasoning to honour that responsibility.
Now there are two polls in the public arena one giving leads to STUART . the other giving lead to ARTHUR . in the event which ever one should win. i suspect that Wickham can hang his hat on the winner and said his methodology was right .
David
A few questions regarding latest poll
1. If the Sunday was faulty why did Cadres release it?
2. If the Sunday poll was faulty why did the Nation publish it?
3. Why was the ‘revised’ poll not published by the Nation, theatre who commissioned the initial poll?
4. Why did only Barbados Today publish the ‘revised’ poll and in a midnight special edition?
5. Barbados Today is owned by Peter Harris, a friend Owen Arthur who benefitted under the BLP, is this the same Peter Harris who early last took responsibility for raising campaign funds for the BLP for their ‘activities’ on Election Day?
AC a plane full of DEMS won’t change the results LOLL Sounds like you are desperate to get votes. I wonder who paying for these overseas DEMS tickets?
So island gal it seems like you already know the result. maybe you can publish your own findings .
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