Notes From A Native Son: Four Seasons, The End

Hal Austin

The scandal over the national insurance scheme’s so-called investment in the stalled Four Seasons hotel and villa complex has now run its rational course. There is clearly no business or economic case for the investment, despite special pleading from Professor Avinash Persaud, the public face of the development, and a moribund government anxious to make as show of competence before the next general election. The decision to go ahead with the BDS$60m investment, on top of the rest, is political and not economic. It is also quite clearly a failure of the NIS’ fiduciary duty to scheme members and to future generations of claimants.

Recently, according to some reports, Professor Persaud, executive chairman of the troubled project, has been putting his case, with the articulacy that one would expect of one of the brightest economists of his generation. But, as has been the case all along, he has failed to convince that the so-called investment is one that the National Insurance Scheme should have been involved in.

Before looking more closely at what is alleged to be Professor Persaud’s case for the defence, I want to take a closer look at what the NIS should be, and what it is not.

As a national insurance scheme, its principal role is to provide long-term retirement income for its members and other eligible beneficiaries.
Its investment horizon should stretch across the lifetime of its members and beyond and this fiduciary duty should be summed up in a publicly available policy on responsible investment. This should be rooted in a carefully considered risk management policy, based on actuarial assumptions, as to longevity and returns on investments, with the aim of maximising returns without undue risks.

A scheme with such a profile would normally have a rather cautious asset allocation outlook, which all investment experts tell us, is the best guarantee of Beta returns. In short, a national insurance scheme’s investment policy should not be based on high-risk Alpha returns. The other key to responsible investment is diversification: not only across industries, but also markets.

So, to give an example, if the NIS has equity investments in the hotel and tourism industry, furniture manufacture, commercial property, and so on, it would be wise to invest in markets such as Barbados, for obvious reasons, Caricom, as good Caricom members, in more developed markets – the US, Canada, UK, Europe, Japan – and some fast developing markets – China, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, and others. The simple economic reason is that if there is volatility in one market, it is unlikely to be in others, so investments may still give Beta returns, beating any determined benchmarks, with out the high risks. But, asset allocation must also be fine-tuned through stock picking. In other words, a decision may be made by the investment committee to invest in US equities, but the actual choice of company, I believe, must be made by experts who are in hourly contact with the markets. More so, fund managers talk to CEOs, finance directors, production staff and to other market participants and know what is going on.

With due respect, an investment team based in Barbados is not in a position to carry out the necessary research, talk to analysts and visit plants all over the world, if due diligence is to be carried out. On these grounds alone the so-called investment by NIS in Four Seasons goes against the grain of sound investment theory. Further, there should be at least an annual audit of the scheme’s equity portfolio, called the rebalancing date on portfolio performance, looking at market volatility and the predictions for the coming months.

Equity investments, however, in a contributory scheme based on the long-term, is, or should be, mainly for growth and income. The fundamental policy should be based on those long-term liabilities and this is prudently covered by investments in gilts and corporate bonds. To give real meaning to this jargon, a good long-term investment portfolio would look like: 50 per cent in equities, 40 per cent in fixed income such as bonds (or gilts), five per cent property, three per cent alternatives such as hedge funds and two per cent in cash. But deciding on the amount of cash to invest in bonds or equities or keep in cash is far more important to the long-term return of the pot than deciding on stock picking, such as which company to invest in.

So, if the NIS’ investment committee decides to invest in the hotel and tourism sector in Barbados, that will be good, since the obvious outcome is to keep Barbadians in jobs. This is the key to successful long-term investing. However, to decide to pump money in to Four Seasons or any other individual project will take a lot more thought and analysis. This is not the case with Four Seasons at present.

The other key investment strategy is to know what you are aiming for before creating an investment roadmap. Having done that, it is important that all stakeholders know and understand the scheme goals, the amount of risk the scheme is prepared to take, the investment horizon (investing is a long haul, i.e. about five years, so selling shares every two months is a waste of money).

Four Seasons:
As I have said, there is no case for a state investment in Four Seasons. As things stand, it is a pitch in the dark that a so-called premium class hotel will attract ultra and high net-worth clients. Where is the evidence?

In any case, the room occupancy rate of the top class hotels we already have is not encouraging. Further, the global macroeconomic evidence is not there. In the four months since September 2011, US$2.75 trillion of cross-border capital, including bonds, equities and banking flows, have flown from developing markets, the biggest outflow since the 2007/8 banking crisis.

This means that the investors who would normally be interested in investing in Barbados are more cautious and are holding on to their money, because most experts are predicting a massive global slump. Even the super-rich feel the pain at times like this.

But there are other questions that still have not been properly answered:

  • Was Professor Persaud paid a fee of US$4m following the UD$60m loan the project received? If so, was this for consultancy over and above his position as executive chairman? Was it paid to him personally or to a private company? Is that company domiciled in Barbados, Britain or some other offshore jurisdiction?
  • Is it true that the interest rate on this loan was 13 per cent, meaning that government/Four Seasons must repay a further BDS$15m?
  • What is his salary as executive chairman and does he have any other commercial arrangements with the management of the project?
  • Is it true that sales revenue of BDS$170m was generated in the first 18 months of the project, if so how was this money spent? Were there any defaults on payments by any of the villa purchasers?
  • Taxpayers also want to know if reports that leading QC Peter Evelyn chaired a committee advising the government and resigned prematurely are true, and if so what were the reasons?

(The questions are too long for a short blog and if you want to read the full list please email me).

Analysis and Conclusion:
Taxpayers have a moral and legal right to know how their taxes are being invested. This is best done through the NIS posting on its website a Statement of Investment Policy, a Statement of Scheme Governance, every triennial actuarial report it has ever received, the CEO’s/board’s annual statement/report, and a statement on the investment committee and the names and locations of any fund managers, and their charges.

Taxpayers also have a right to know if the investments are actively or passively managed, so that they can determine if the charges are reasonable.

To give an example: an actively managed investment fund means that fund managers are making decisions every day about the portfolio and for each trade, as they are called, there is a charge. So, the scheme would be charged an annual management charge by the fund managers, of about 0.5 per cent to three per cent, which is the going rate, although it is not unusual to find some extortionate managers charging up to seven or eight per cent.

They may also produce an outline of charges called in the trade a Total Expense Ration (TER). However, as already pointed out, this does not include the ‘trades’, which can be massive. This is important, since if a manager charges 0.5 per cent of an investment pot of $100, he will get only 50cents. But if it is 0.5 per cent of a pot of £1bn, he will be getting $5m, which is a lot of money.

To put all this in simple terms, if the person negotiating on behalf of the scheme does not understand financial economics then s/he is in danger of signing away millions of taxpayers’ dollars in charges.

Equally, if someone is an academic and has no real experience of the fund management world, s/he can be baffled with hocus pocus. It is also important to remember there is no secret about which investments the scheme has made, all that is available on public records.

It is of course confidential what investments the scheme is considering making, which is not the same. Risk assessment and risk management are at the very heart of investment policy. A competent investment committee would identify risks and work out strategies for avoiding or mitigating those risks – strategic, legislative and regulatory, operational and reputational.

A clear strategic risk is the immediate and medium-term prospects for the Barbados tourism and hotel sector. Another clear operational risk, which we know from the failure of the NIS to get its annual accounts in order, according to the Auditor General, must be implicitly embedded in the running of the NIS. In any case, it is important that investments decisions for the scheme are not made by government. In fact, the NIS should be a stand alone agency, outside the civil service, reporting to parliament annually.

In the final analysis, this is a case for the courts. Trade unions, the guardians of workers’ rights, lawyers and other concerned Barbadians should pool resources and challenge this decision in court.


  • Hal Austin;
    I see that you seem to be proposing a kind of class action legal suit. something like NIS contributors against the NIS Board. Barbados, as far as I know, has no experience in such suits. Could you suggest a rough roadmap on how best something like this could be implemented?


  • The argument that Hal Austin and other detractors of this project keep making is that NIS should not invest in Four Seasons, but their arguments fail spectacularly because they cannot answer their own questions.

    In fact Mr. Austin continues to make sweeping statements without any evidence to back them up. If we are to believe him then the NIS Investment Committee should not be managing anything on our behalf. In fact if he is to be believed we should probably abandon tourism as the primary engine of our economy as being too risky.

    I am beginning to wonder when last Mr. Austin visited Barbados. He says there is no evidence to support the view that a premium class hotel will attract ultra and high net worth individuals. I highly recommend that you pay us a visit over the Christmas holidays, Hal and take a stroll down Sandy Lane Beach and see how many high net worth individuals you can identify. I will give you some clues. Look for Goldsmiths, Grainges, Greens, Cowells and Rothschilds. In fact read the “The Daily Mail” Hal, they certainly do. Are you for real? Who are the present villa owners on this project if not high net worth individuals?

    And you want us to believe the rest of your theories?

    If as you say there is a scarcity of private investment in the sums required to complete the project and in a manner that would be acceptable to our laws and our way of doing business i.e no gun runners or money launderers then what are our options? What evidence do you have to support your claim that this project is a pitch in the dark? You really think the IDB is going to risk $180 million dollars on a pitch in the dark? Gimme a break man. The cold up there in London like it getting to your brain.

    Now whether the initial developers spent the pre-sales money wisely or not, whether they milked the company and lived high on the hog or not is a matter for the people who invested with them. And I believe that they are guilty of some of these things, but the fact is that they are no longer involved in the management of the company. We cannot undo what has already been done. Neither can we lay their misdeeds at the door of the present management team or the Government.

    Austin criticizes the Government for wanting to make a show of competence. Clearly you no know nothing of politics Hal. That is what Governments and political parties do. In fact the BLP of yesteryear took it to a fine art by publishing a document called Promises & Performance. It was innovative and had a huge impact on their re-election on 1981. So I am not sure where this argument is leading.

    I think you better stick to the things you know about Hal. Follow your own advice- with due respect a journalist based in London is not in a position to preach to us about what is good or not good for us. Give it a rest. Your arguments are stale and frankly out of place.


  • millertheanunnaki

    @ Bajan to d Bone | January 26, 2012 at 9:47 PM |

    In your “critique” of Hal Austin’s contribution on the 4 Seasons investment you failed to respond to Hal’s “real” concerns about the role of the Executive Chairman and his consultancy fees. Hal is barking up the right coconut palm tree where the monkey has hidden the nuts.
    Let us hear you address Hal’s view on this matter. And If I were you, a true Bajan to the bone, I would take serious note of what Hal is uncovering, Capital Intelligence et al, that is!


  • In 2010 I contributed $4,726.80 to the NIS. And about the same in 2011 (waiting to get my tax slip from my employer) I have been contributing at the top rate for more than 25 years. I have been contributing for more than 40+ years in all. I am not sure how much Avinash Persaud has contribute in 2010 or 2011 or over the past 40+ years. Maybe he has contributed more to the NIS that I have since he is significantly better educated than I am, but maybe not. I have taken 3 weeks NIS sick leave during thi stime and zero unemployment leave.

    I am deeply worried about what is happening to my pension funds.

    The government/the Cabinet must remember that it is OUR money not theirs. At this point in my life I have been paying NIS since before some of our Cabinet MInisters were born, and certainly I have been paying since many were in diapers. When I retire in a few years time I want MY pension money. I am displeased to hear that some of those involved in the Four Seasons project may have been giving themselves multi million pay cheques out of MY money.


  • Quoting Bajan to D Bone “Goldsmiths, Grainges, Greens, Cowells and Rothschilds.”

    It is not whether these or other celebrities are visiting Barbados at Christmas time. The real questions must be are the rooms at Sandy Lane and other luxury hotels full throughout the December 15 to April 15 tourist season? And is there a good occupancy during the rest of the year?

    I need Cabinet to answer those questins before they start spending my pension money as though it is free money.

    It is not free money. I work hard as shite to make my NIS contributions.

    If Cabinet screws up on this I WILL REMEMBER them when I go to cast my vote.


  • Quoting Bajan to D Bone “If as you say there is a scarcity of private investment in the sums required to complete the project and in a manner that would be acceptable to our laws and our way of doing business i.e no gun runners or money launderers then what are our options?”

    So are you saying that if private investors won’t touch Four Seasons witha ten foot pole (I wonder why?) and if as is right and proper Barbados won’t take nasty gun and drug money, are you telling me that the old optionis to rob old ladies of thier NIS money.

    We old ladies will remember this when we go to cast out vote.


  • Dear Bajan to D Bone”

    Beside those Four Seasons folks raped Paradise Beach and I will never forgive them for that.

    Do you or they think that we have forgotten that?


  • Correction: That the only option is to rob old ladies of their pension money.


  • Quoting Bajan to D Bone “You really think the IDB is going to risk $180 million dollars on a pitch in the dark? ”

    The IDB can do what the shite they like. They are not spending my pension money. I don’t want the NIS playing monopoly wid my pension money.


  • @Bajan to D Bone

    “whether the initial developers spent the pre-sales money wisely or not, whether they milked the company and lived high on the hog or not is a matter for the people who invested with them…”

    It is a matter for people investing in the ongoing project (i.e. us) because the government stepped in and paid off the creditors, made further guarantees, employed Persaud at his extortionate rates and did not allow the project to go into liquidation – which is ultimately why it is unfeasible in its present form.

    I read the Daily Mail too – check where Cowell went after Barbados – he hired a private yacht and was hob-nobbing it in St Barts, along with a zillion other celebrities. Looks like Barbados is getting boring…

    I have no problem with a Four Seasons hotel and villas being built – it has the potential to be a wonderful project. But it has been mishandled after the private endeavours failed, and we are being lied to and manipulated. No private investors would commit funds under such circumstances.

    And Persaud is being disingenuous with his interpretation of the IMF call for the NIS to stop funding government projects, saying that this does not fit that mantle and it is diversification of its portfolio. Not so – It has become a huge government project.

    Anyway, let us see the PwC report Persaud mentions, which no doubt makes all kinds of assumptions, that may or may not bear scrutiny…


  • this is so sad! i am about to cry! We can trust no one ! No One!


  • Here is a question for BU:

    If a former Minister who qualified for a pension (over 50 and two political terms) stands again for office and wins his parliamentary seat, does he receive both his MP salary and pension?


  • David; Ask caswell!!


  • It seems Persaud has decided to go on the offensive.

    He has told Arthur to stop playing politics with the 4Cs project!


  • Dr Persaud needs to start looking for other investors other than our NIS money! He needs to tell us how the $60 million guaranteed by the dead king was dispersed and how much out of it went to him as consultancy fees. Does he need our NIS money so that he can collect his fees?

    I spoke to a business man recently and he said that it is going to take many, many years before we would be able to make a return on our investment if it ever gets finished.


  • I hear Avinash yesterday saying that investors will get bac $2 for every dollar that they put in.

    I have a proposal for Avinash and theNIS.

    Since I have contributed about one hundred thousand dollars to NIS so far, and likely have earned the same or much more in interest payments and since I don’t have to retire for 8 1/2 years can I ask NIS to give me my $200,000+ now, I’ll invest it now with Avinash and in 8 1/2 years time he will pay me $400,000, and NIS owes me nothing more.


  • The more the plans fails, the more the planners plan and government has now become to Mr Persaud, the backers of last resort.

    What happens to our money if this fails??


  • Sorry,
    The more the plans fail.


  • Regarding the question posed by miller regarding Persaud’s compensation.

    If public funds is being dumped into this project does the public have a right to know?


  • Anytime you spending my money David I have a RIGHT to know what you spending it on.


  • To all and sundry..
    The money is already air marked for the Four Season coffers ..
    So talk all you like … set to go the way of HardWood..
    When the post morten is made after elections…some one will say the matter of The $60 million..and someone else will say…can’t find the files..some mysterious body removed them…SOUNDS FAMILIAR ?


  • Quoting Bajan to D Bone “Now whether the initial developers spent the pre-sales money wisely or not, whether they milked the company and lived high on the hog or not is a matter for the people who invested with them. And I believe that they are guilty of some of these things”

    Dear Bajan to D Bone: Let’s suppose that in July your child mother gave you $2,000 to sort out Little Jane for school in September. It was understood by both of you that this money was to be used for books, school clothes, a raincoat, stationery, shoes, school bag, pen, pencils, geometry set etc. and lets say that you used the money to take your new girlfriend on a cruise. Would it be my business if your childmother and Little Johnnie show up at the welfare department in late August looking for a tax funded hand out?

    Like hell it would be my business.

    And I’d need to find you and recover the misspent money, including taking whatever assets you have to make up the loss.

    Isn’t this what happened to Bernie Madoff. Weren’t his assets taken to compensate people whose money he misspent. Should the taxpayers have covered those loses.

    Do you Bajan to D Bone think that taxpayers are people with no sense and with pockets like bottomless pits?

    What are you planning Bajan to D Bone. Welfare/socialism for the mega rich. Out of the poor Bajan taxpayers?

    What are you some sort of reverse Robin Hood?


  • Robbing the poor old ladies to save the (mega)rich?


  • @random Thoughts
    robbing poor old supply the rich…

    Its called capitalism..I hear Emera soon asking for a new rate hike too


  • David asks, “If public funds is being dumped into this project does the public have a right to know?”

    Absolutely yes.

    If you ask for $60 million of taxpayers money you should say how you intend to spend it and when and how you will pay it back.

    I also do not understand why the villas could not be built first and the profits from the sale of the villas used to start the hotel.


  • Where are the owners of this property? Why are they not up front looking for money to develop this project? Why is the government involved? For only a few jobs ? Who will guarantee our $60 million? Why did the asking price move from $50 million to $60 million between the first request and when the request was revisited? Can Phony Marshall or Justin Robinson tell us? Phony Marshall used to say on Brasstacks, the people would like to know.

    The more the plans fail, the more the planners plan and government becomes to the backers, the last resort.


  • @millertheanunnaki

    What has Hal “uncovered”? If he has evidence that Persuad made $4 million let him publish it instead of throwing out figures which he knows will inflame peoples’ passions.

    If the man worked for nothing wunna Bajans would object and say he trying to avoid taxes or some other foolishness.

    How much do you think the job is worth by the way? Do you think he should be paid based on results/villa sales/flat salary – what?

    It is easy to sit on the sidelines and snipe but I see very few people offering any tangible solutions.


  • For $4 million..I could buy a small hotel…tell that indian man this is the third world…he better not rob us or we going send a Baccu fa he.


  • @Bajan to d Bone

    “How much do you think the job is worth by the way? Do you think he should be paid based on results/villa sales/flat salary – what?”

    If he had brought in private investors and restarted the project without it becoming a millstone round government and /or the NIS then he should have been paid something for potentially saving our backsides from the poor decision to pick up the pieces in the first place.

    Seeing as he’s not done that, he should be paid nothing.

    This is where the problem lies – he is not independent; he touts the project because he is very close to snaffling enormous fees, more money than most of the people getting pension from the NIS will earn in a lifetime, and he cannot possibly justify on the non-results he has achieved.

    He will tell the world, he alone was responsible for restarting this project and that he earned the money.

    The truth is any dimwit could have organised a loan at an usurious 13% from the IADB and then gone running to government to divert the remainder from our NIS funds.

    The investment is almost certainly not going to perform in the way he suggests and is way too risky for the NIS.

    “I see very few people offering any tangible solutions.”

    Let him work for his money, and do what he was supposed to do and find a proper solution involving private money. Tell the original investors, there money is largely gone and will not buy them what they originally thought. If they want the project completed, they will have to put in more money. Or the project will be scaled down. Failing that just let the whole mess, fall into liquidation – his worst nightmare because he won’t get paid.


  • @ Random Thoughts

    You are right. Perhaps this is why the original developers no longer have any control over the management of the project, but look a little further past your nose to the benefits the project holds for Barbados.

    The plan to finance the build out of the hotel first is why I support it. There is no doubt in my mind that having a Four Season branded property here will benefit our tourist industry. A view that is supported by anyone in the industry I have talked to and those who have spoken publicly on the matter.

    No I do not want to bail out the villa owners, but if they eventually benefit by having the project come to fruition I do not begrudge them that, considering they have already sunk millions into it and will have to put in millions more before they get their keys.

    The NIS, or indeed the IDB money from what I have read about the financing is not to be used to bail them out.


  • @ Hmmmm

    “The truth is any dimwit could have organised a loan at an usurious 13% from the IADB and then gone running to government to divert the remainder from our NIS funds.”

    This is the best joke I have seen all year.

    Envy rears its ugly head again.


  • @Bajan to d Bone

    Can you explain why according to the NIS investment report the application was originally declined?


  • Why have we not heard Minister Suckoo and Chairman Marshall out there in the public defending NIS decision to pump 60 million into the project?

    Should their silence be construed as what?

    This is part of the reason why public opinion is so divided on this matter.


  • A bit off the point, but the subject matter is about tourism, and that has been, and will continue to be on our main foreign exchange earners. Just noticed that tennis player Victoria Azarenka won the 2012 Australian Open Womens Tennis Championship a few hours ago. She had come to Barbados for an exhibition match in December in Tennis Pon De Rock. Serena Williams had come to Barbados and played in December 2009, and went on to win the Australian Open in January 2010. I think the Barbados Tourism Authority may be able to promote Barbados with this information as tennis is an international sport.


  • @Micah

    Good point, posted your comment on Facebook a moment ago for the attention of Chairman of the BTA.


  • Thank you.


  • I maintain my point that if this project is so good and will be so viable down the road, why cant Dr Persaud find private investors?

    Certainly he should have been showing them the same study he is touting about doubling the return on each dollar. There is plenty money in the banking system, my personal banker called me last week asking if I wanted a loan, so if investors here were sold on the idea, money is available. But alas no, which means, the business sector has no faith in what Dr Persaud is selling.


  • millertheanunnaki

    @ Bajan to d Bone | January 27, 2012 at 11:29 PM |

    Listen, Baje to d Bone, let us get something straight up front! I am not against, in principle, the NIS investment in 4 Seasons. What I am against is the secrecy and opagueness surrounding the whole fiasco. Man, you are dealing with poor people’s future livelihoods not some Trade Confirmers or CLICO type Ponzi scheme. Working Bajans have no alternative but to pay NIS contributions. It is mandatory not optional. In other words, we have no choice in how or where our hard earned contributions are used to secure provision for our time of sickness or old age. We expect that those entrusted with our hard-earned money would look upon their fiduciary responsibilities with the greatest of integrity, professional skill and commitment. Therefore, what we need is openness, shared information and honest dealings.

    The Executive Chairman was hired with a mandate of finding alternative foreign investors (and if need be local private investors as partners) to restart the project. The consideration for this contractual undertaking would be the payment of “very attractive” fees to achieve this mandate.
    No one is against such an arrangement as long as both parties fulfill their contractual obligations. Therefore, one finds your statement (“If the man worked for nothing wunna Bajans would object and say he trying to avoid taxes or some other foolishness”) a bit puerile. What intelligent and honest Bajans want is for the Chairman to give an account of his stewardship. A disclosure of the income and expenditures would put to rest any rumor mongering or any of Hal Austin’s “guesstimating”.
    You should also be prepared to accept that some people have knowledge about how these contractual undertakings should operate and can be quite prepared to raise the following queries which you are invited to address:

    Who or what is the name of the beneficiary of the fees paid in respect of consultancy services rendered to the 4 Seasons Restart Project?
    How much has been paid to date?
    Is the beneficiary resident for income tax in Barbados? Was the appropriate tax declared and paid within the requirement of the Income Tax Act? If the money was paid to a person or company resident overseas, were the fees remitted and in what currency? Was the appropriate withholding tax paid over to Inland Revenue?

    Unless you, “Bajan to d Bone”, are not for the rule of law, then you may wish to view the above queries as reasonable and in need of a response.

    Again, I wish to state that I am not against the NIS investment but let transparency be the watchword. What the Chairman should be focusing on in order to justify his fees is the targeting of international, local and regional potential investors with the aim of lessening the burden on the NIS.
    Now that would be an excellent way of effectively using his “Capital Intelligence”.


  • Is there leeway for Mia Mottley to speak on this issue or is she hamstrung by lawyer client confidentiality? If such is the case it is a crying shame.


  • Quoting Hmmmmm | January 28, 2012 at 8:43 AM | who is quoting Bajan to d Bone who wrote “How much do you think the job is worth by the way? Do you think he should be paid based on results/villa sales/flat salary – what?”

    Quoting Hmmmmm “If he had brought in private investors and restarted the project without it becoming a millstone round government and /or the NIS then he should have been paid something…Seeing as he’s not done that, HE SHOULD BE PAID NOTHING…he touts the project because he is very close to [getting] enormous fees…The investment is almost certainly not going to perform in the way he suggests…Let him work for his money.. find a proper solution involving private money…Failing that just let [the project fail]”

    I second this.


  • Sometime back it was reported that our Minister of Education beieves that some school children are posessed by demons.

    I verily believe that some Parlimentarians are also posessed by demons.

    And come election day we old ladies will drive the demons out.


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