BU General Election Picks

Barbados General Election Watch

Click names of candidates to glean past election info

City of Bridgetown(Todd/Bostic)) BLP

St. Michael South – (Stuart/Lynch)  – DLP

St. Michael East – (Best/Prescod) – BLP

St. Michael South Central – (Gill/Sealy) – BLP

St. Michael Central – (Blackett/Holder) – BLP

St. Michael South East – (Tannis/Bradshaw) – BLP

St. Michael North East – (Mottley/Inniss) – BLP

St. Michael North – (Toppin/Depeiza) – BLP

St. Michael North West – (Sinckler/Nicholls) – DLP

St. Michael West – (Carrington/Atherley) – BLP

St. Michael West Central (Paul/Gooding-Edghill) – BLP

Christ Church West – (Agard/Depeiza) – BLP

Christ Church West Central – (Lashley/Durant-Callender – DLP

Christ Church South – (Boyce/Walcott) – BLP

Christ Church East Central – (Jones/Sands) – DLP

Christ Church East – (Lowe/Abrahams) – BLP

St. Philip North – (Lashley/Weir) – DLP

St. Philip South – (Brathwaithe/Wood) – BLP

St. Philip West – (Estwick/Eastmond) – DLP

St. George North – (Clarke/Ince) – BLP

St. George South – (Byer-Suckoo/Sutherland) – BLP

St. John – (Thompson/Griffith) – DLP

St. Joseph – (Marshall/Holder) – BLP

St. Thomas – (Forde/Hinds) – BLP

St. James North – (Hinkson/Husbands) – BLP

St. James South – (Inniss/Husbands) – BLP

St. James Central – (Hutson/Symmonds) – BLP

St. Peter – (Arthur/Benn) – BLP

St. Andrew – (Payne/Sandiford-Garner) – BLP

St. Lucy – (Kellman/Phillips) – DLP

BLP 22
Undecided 0

0 thoughts on “BU General Election Picks

  1. I beg to differ with you on Christ Church West Central and St. James South. Lashley will win Christ Church West Centrl and Donville will win St. James South.

    • BU picks updated.

      BU notes with interest that in Peter Wickham’s column today he is ‘bigging up’ Sinckler, Inniss and Sealy.

  2. I am now not too sure of any of them. However Peter is of the view that Inniss is the safest of the three. I don’t know, he is the man with the stats. We shall wait and see. David, is it true that Sinckler was booed at his meeting Friday night? And is it also true that the meeting finish well before 9.00pm?

    • @firefox

      Have not heard your report however it was widely reported in the traditional media that Sinckler was booed at Deacons on Nomination Day. BU hastens to add that we do not support this behaviour from our primary school children.

    • What is interesting to BU is the fact Mark Williams has been seen canvassing with the Joe Atherley team. Is he working both Atherley and Nicholls campaigns? One would think he is a valuable resource for the Nicholls camp.

  3. Sinckler will dismiss the arrogant Nicholls clown. Nicholls has now resorted to pulling down Sinckler’s posters with a team after 6pm.St. Michael North West will not settle for less when they have the best. Chris will win this one.He has done more in 5 years than that loser Mascoll ever acomplished.

  4. Could it be that Peter Wickham is looking for a soft landing for his good friend Chris Sinckler? I also note with keen interest that Peter said Sealy stands a fair chance of winning if the negative swing does not stray far beyond the 7% mentioned two weeks ago. I am hearing word that the swing maybe as much as 10.5% – 11% if this is true it is not good news for the boys.

  5. If sinckler goes then so does the rest of the party. Sinckler will defeat nicholls. Inniss should defeat husbands, but, there’s always that possibility. Sealy should have had no trouble with Gill but his margin is too tight and he’s been to “shaky” nationally to tell. By Saturday it should bee clearer.

    One note though, the national swing forecast method will be tested this cycle since there are so many individual constituencies with their own peculiar characteristics. The overall swing won’t be able to predict all the results…

    My count as we speak though is 18-12, BLP.

    Just Observing

  6. @ David

    What to make of Peter Wickham’s failure or refusal to include Dr. David Estwick as possible candidate for Leader of the Oppostion when or if the DLP ends up losing this election?

  7. @ Hants

    Dale Marshall is dead in St.Joseph. They are trying to save him but he’s already underwater thanks in major part to Mia’s deployment of resources to help Dennis Holder.

    Mia cutting out Owen, Dale and George Payne’s balls with Rusty bread knife. BRUTAL.

  8. Fiddler on Roof is that what you all tell yourself at night to help the pain of losing this election? if Mia was that big and had that much power, she would be leader of the party but you come heer and THINK that big people would believe such crap.

    only the DEMs.

    David 22-8 are interesting numbers. hmmm! did you care to call the swing number?

    • @David (not BU)

      This general election is interesting for many reasons:

      no long coat tails of the leaders;
      a time of austerity the derivative of an unprecedented global economic slowdown;
      weak candidates whether first timers or recycle;
      the Mia Mottley factor;
      the E11 factor
      etc etc

      What will win out for those undecided is the fact that there is pain when balancing the cheque book and the fear of change which sensible individuals know must come. There people BU believes will go with tried ans trusted even though the Owen years were in different times.

  9. @David
    Help me with your rationale for

    – Husbands over Inniss
    – Arthur over Blackett

    I can “live” with the other choices though I’m tempted to give Sealy and Lowe the nod (for now) . Momentum and enthusiasm seem clearly more on the BLP side and I haven’t seen signs of them faltering (yet) after a serious sprint at the start. The DLP needs something strategically and politically major during this week. If the current campaigning status quo remains as is, we may be in store for some very daunting results for one party.

    btw, if both Inniss and Sealy goes, then Stephen Lashley and Sinckler are not as safe as they would think either.

    Just Observing

    • @observing(…)

      Mia has been throwing her weight around for Arthur if not her coat tail.

      St. James South has a large middleclass and working class, both will work against Inniss Harold Hoyte’s view not withstanding.

  10. @david
    Understood on both counts. We’ll see if Mia can bring him home. St. james is definitely going Bees. Donville is the only DLP hope. Stephen Lashley may be upset as well then. Let’s wait on the manifesto, the poll, and how the weekend turns.

    Just Observing

  11. Observing , David, assumption is yall on the ground not bunkered in middle class house in heights and terraces feet up with ac and fancy wide screen computer. Just saying. Take a read:

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    “Dewey Defeats Truman” was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory.
    The paper’s erroneous headline became notorious after a jubilant Truman was photographed holding a copy of the paper during a stop at St. Louis Union Station while returning by train from his home in Independence, Missouri to Washington, D.C.[1] The Chicago Tribune, which had once referred to Truman as a “nincompoop”, was a famously Republican-leaning paper. In a retrospective article over half a century later about the newspaper’s most famous and embarrassing headline, the Tribune wrote that Truman “had as low an opinion of the Tribune as it did of him.”[2]
    On election night, this earlier press deadline required the first post-election issue of the Tribune to go to press before even the East coast states had reported many results from the polling places. The paper relied on its veteran Washington correspondent and political analyst Arthur Sears Henning, who had predicted the winner in four out of five presidential contests in the past 20 years. Conventional wisdom, supported by polls, was almost unanimous that a Dewey presidency was “inevitable”, and that the New York governor would win the election handily. The first (one-star) edition of the Tribune therefore went to press with the banner headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN”.[1]”

    BU, Wickham you’re warned to stop jukking your hands in fowl botsy to count eggs. Well well well, cocksure overconfident Owen looks and sounds more arrogant than the dread days of 2003 to 2008. Nuff said.

  12. @listening
    1948 versus 2013
    Presidential election versus 30 seat race
    Republican paper versus wide open blog
    Limited undeveloped polling versus consistent conventional polling
    Reliance on one man (henning) versus converging observation from various media and sources

    If you can point to a more recent example of cumulative polls, and widespread anecdotal observation from multiple media being wrong I’ll be happy to agree with you. I do get your point, but, you have to admit, one team “seems” way ahead of the other by any criteria you can come up with.

    Btw, assumption is correct. Feet are firmly planted. Lol.

    Just observing

  13. @Listening
    Wishing and hoping for Stuart and the Dems to return to form the next Government is a waste of your time.Stuart sat on his fanny for 3 years or so and at the basic level refused or should I say abandoned the electorate of Barbados,refusing to share his present record or his vision with them.In the meantime Barbados has been borrowing from the NIS every month to pay Public Sector salaries and you would think that Bajans would be up in arms over this.When some awaken its going to be too late.On this basis alone we must be rid of Stuart and the Dems.Serious decisions cannot be postponed.Bitterness comes in the morrow.This crap about DEMS NOW,DEMS AGAIN is for the gimme,gimme people who are led to believe the Government owes them a living and they need not work for their livelihood.’Knowing and
    not applying and willing and not doing is not enough'(Goethe)Stuart is found wanting.

  14. If the swing is anywhere near 11%, then we would be looking at something like 27 – 3 in favour of the BLP.

    This is not meant as a prediction; it just reflects that only about 3 persons on the DLP side have a margin that could withstand such a swing.

    Personally, I speculate that it is more likely in the vicinity of 8%.

  15. DavidB | February 11, 2013 at 11:42 PM | I speculate the swing between 4% to 6% then factor in peculiarities of individual constituencies. Dale rabbit implants Marshall won in 2008 taking the swing into consideration he should have lost handily. Rommell Marshall also lost when in spite of the swing he was down to win easily.

  16. Fidel

    St.Joseph is gone. The big DLP money has moved into the two northern parishes and Dennis Holder already has 12 hired cars and 3 buses for Election Day.

    Dale is gone and when it’s done he’ll have Mia to thank. Nobody like a traitor, and that’s just what Girlie Girlie Marshall is.

  17. Mia holds the key to the Election. If the BLP allows her to appear on CBC TV to deliver the address to the Nation, then there is no way the DLP can continue to use the Mia/Owen disunity.

    This is the right time for Mia to bargain for whatever she wants and she is smart enough to know this. This is one interesting election. The most interesting one in my lifetime of 35 years.

  18. Mia Mottley will do to George Payne and Dale Marshall exactly what she did to the mock B “coleader” Mascoll in 2008.
    There is so much division and dislike among the BLP candidates, it is amazing but one thing they always bank on is a strong publuc relations machinery to create false impressions about policy and personality.

  19. ate This
    David | February 14, 2013 at 8:01 AM |
    Nothing has been delivered from the platform of the DLP so far which BU considers a game changer

    Same applies to BLP platform, no?

  20. Reading the comments after the results makes for good comedy on “saturday nit live” wonder how many crows have miller and observing devoured as of recents.

Leave a comment, join the discussion.