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Flattened Curve

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grenville-phillips
Submitted by Grenville Phillips II

With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight. We started at a trend of 20 new cases each week, then 8, and now 4. If we continue to have zero new cases over the next 2 days, we would have reached the goal of zero new cases in one week.

The Government must take the good with the bad. Therefore, they deserve praise for the improving trend. Well done.
We have flattened the curve before the Government had planned. The Government was wise to plan for the worst. Happily, it seems unlikely that we will see the worst. This puts the Government in the enviable position if having options.
We have a significant amount of health resources that we may no longer need for the COVID-19 response. We can either squander the resources on unnecessary use, or we can maintain them for a similar pandemic.
A more urgent issue is the 24-hour curfew. A deadline of 4 May 2020 was determined on the assumption that we would had had a lot more cases.
The longer the curfew is maintained, the greater the debt-burden on Barbadians, who are spending without earning. Soon, they will run out of access to money.
It is important that the Government share the plan for allowing persons to return to work. It is equally important that the Government share the plan for securing our borders, to prevent an unnecessary reoccurrence of infections.
Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

 

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187 responses to “Flattened Curve”

  1. David Avatar
    David

    The Prime Minister (ag) was very clear yesterday the government is currently discussing plans for end of curfew.

  2. David Avatar
    David

    This is a graph submitted by @Lyall Small to track reported cases.

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid-graph-lyallsmall.png

  3. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    Is the curve really flattening or is it because testing is so limited. Every expert in this situation claims testing, testing, testing is the key ingredient. Noticed that testing in Barbados has significantly dropped off. Hopefully the curve is flattening however knowing Barbados political MENTALITY only the future will tell the real story.

  4. David Avatar
    David

    @Wily

    According to the MoH less people have been ‘presenting’ themselves for testing and or less referrals from private healthcare entities. If the numbers are a lie we will know in the next week or so if many people become sick. Your point about widespread testing is valid if we want to reopen the country. We need to know the health status of persons in a more structured way. Isn’t there a similar discussion going on in the US?

  5. John Avatar
    John

    It is the hospitalizations that matter and I can’t see that 4 serious/critical cases will swamp the medical services.

    The other numbers are false.

    eg no testing = no new cases

  6. GP Avatar
    GP

    lord have mercy upon us, WUHLOSS MURDAH MA BELLY
    NON SOLUTIONS BARBADOS IS NOW IN THE EPIDEMIOLOGY BUSYNESS

  7. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    The whole crisis management of the government is world class!

    We have done everything right economically! In principle, our airport is still open. We have evacuated many, many tourists and thus fulfilled our obligations as the best host in the world.

    We have done everything right medically! No community transmission of the Wuhan plague. No new infections for many days. At the end of the month the Wuhan plague is eradicated.

    In NYC and London health care has collapsed for weeks. In Jamaica, the situation is totally out of control.The US is sending a whole army of criminal Jamaicans to Kingston. Trixidad is declaring its own citizens second-class human beings.

    And what is Barbados doing? We’re fighting in the titanic league. Barbados as a beacon of civilization and best governance. GP2 would say Barbados is now ISO 900001 certified.

    Thank you so much, Mia Mottley, leader of the free world!

  8. ks Avatar
    ks

    Would be ideal if by ‘curfew lift-off’, we have zero positive cases, all cases out of isolation, & all cases recovered … BUT as soon as we re-open our borders, the probability of the virus re-entering our ‘clean’ island will increase drastically!!!

    I agree, we can’t keep our borders closed to tourism (our life-blood) so what we need is a speedy, reliable testing procedure at all ports of entry…… “ya good = Enter …. ya not good = Back on de plane” ….. just until the remainder of the world ‘catch-up’ to us!!!

    While our government have done great in handling this crisis …. forget the minor errors & slip-ups …. overall, the country have done a fantastic job and despite a minority not ‘toeing de line’, the majority of the population deserve a ‘well done’ pat on the back.

    But we must now urge our general population to hold on to some of the ‘best practices’ they embraced during the curfew.

    () Spend more time at home with the family
    (    ) Don’t go out ‘driving’ unless necessary – traffic & pollution reduction!
    () Exercise more, walk, jog, swim, bike, etc ….. stay healthy!
    (    ) Eat better, maintain a healthier diet
    (*) Relax at home… reduce stress
    etc, etc, etc.

    Maybe there will be some ‘benefits’ coming out of this Corona Virus, after all…..

  9. David Avatar
    David

    ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (ECLAC)

    SUBREGIONAL HEADQUARTERS FOR THE CARIBBEAN

    News Release

    21 April 2020

    ECLAC explores role of Caribbean Ministries of Social Development during COVID 19

    Social protection systems are coming under considerable pressure with the implementation of mitigation strategies to control the spread of COVID-19 in the Caribbean. Efforts to mitigate the negative effect of the pandemic on the well-being of those most at risk are now underway across the Caribbean. Attention is being given in particular to those most economically vulnerable, notably women, youth, older persons, persons with disabilities and migrant populations.

    The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), as part of its outreach under the auspices of the Presiding Officers of the Regional Conference on Social Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, convened a virtual meeting on 21 April 2020 to offer countries an opportunity to share information on the actions being taken to meet this challenge, and on potential areas for collaboration and support. Representatives of Caribbean regional organizations and UN Resident Coordinators of the subregion attended as well as heads of UN agencies, funds and programmes.

    Addressing the ministers of Social Development of the Caribbean, ECLAC Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena, underscored that “in urgent circumstances such as those we now face, it is you, the leaders responsible for social welfare, who are charged with finding solutions to the needs of those living on the street, persons with disabilities, migrants, and senior citizens”.

    The meeting recognized that the crisis will affect several social sectors, including health, labour and education, with a disproportionate impact on vulnerable people with underlying health conditions, older people, unemployed youth, underemployed, women, unprotected workers and migrant workers.

    In the Caribbean, medical and health facilities are insufficient for the level of potential demand and are heavily dependent on imports of equipment and inputs. This is a major problem because, to date, 24 countries around the world have restricted exports of medical equipment, medicines or their ingredients.

    It is expected that COVID-19 will affect the job market by increasing unemployment and underemployment, and impact the quality of work, by reducing wages and access to social protection for the most vulnerable groups, such as informal sector workers. The loss of labour income will translate into lower consumption of goods and services, and could drive many workers into poverty.

    The novel coronavirus will also disrupt activities in educational establishments, and will have a significant impact on learning, especially for children in rural areas in light of existing disparities in access to digital devices and broadband Internet. More generally, the limited access to ICT implies a low level of readiness in the subregion to operate in a virtual environment in the current crisis.

    High dependency on food imports creates additional challenges in terms of food security; challenges that are further aggravated by the specific vulnerability of the Caribbean to climate-related natural disasters. Moreover, the looming 2020 hurricane season, which starts in less than three months, places the subregion and its people at greater risk, even as it grapples with the impacts of the pandemic.

    In this context, it was considered urgent that policies be fully coordinated to address the health crisis, which has brought grave socio-economic impacts. ECLAC called for regional coordination and cooperation in the face of the pandemic, taking into account the Regional Agenda for Inclusive Social Development (RAISD) agreed by the member countries of the Conference in Mexico City, in October 2019.

    The meeting, which was held online, was attended by ministers and senior decision makers from Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sint Maarten, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the United States Virgin Islands.

    Following an introduction and presentation of the social and economic situation of the region by ECLAC Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena, each country representatives had the opportunity to briefly present the actions being taken by their respective governments.

  10. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    @ ks April 21, 2020 8:21 AM

    There are precise rapid tests at low cost now. Barbados could become a large field study for the medical giants here, so to speak. I think we should put all travellers to the rapid test. Two hours of waiting and a few dollars cost should be worth it to relax on a plague-free island.

    Not to mention: We could gain a significant advantage here as a tourist island. While in Jamaica and Trixidad the Grim Reaper rages, we could attract more tourists than ever before.

  11. Greene Avatar
    Greene

    it seems to me that we should approach lifting the curfew and other isolation measures carefully. this virus is said to have a whiplash effect as witnessed in China, Japan and S Korea when it resurfaced after seemingly going away.

    the GoB should let the lockdown measures run the course and re assess whilst testing and retesting as much people as possible.

    we appear to have a handle on things at the moment dont become too complacent and act too hastily

  12. David Avatar
    David

    Barbadins like many here are heavily influenced by US media where there is a move to aggressively reopen the country.

  13. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    Greene
    Agree.

  14. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    The curve has flattened. We must bear in mind that this is not an all clear. The GoB strategy is working. Test the susceptible. Treat and isolate the infected. Monitor those infected and have recovered. There are other asymptomatic carriers that were not captured in this exercise. We need to be cautious.
    Too many are ignoring the caveat repeated several times by the acting PM and the Minister of Health. It is not an all clear. Keep the social distance guidelines and the curfew in place.

  15. David Avatar
    David

    @Vincent

    Yes the MoH has been careful to be low keyed with his outlook. Let us continue to be hopeful.

  16. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    Congratulations to the public for cooperating with the Authorities. Thanks to the Management team for working within the parameters of knowledge and equipment at their disposal. We are boing well.

  17. David Avatar
    David

    COVID-19 relief donation

    Barbados is facing an unprecedented economic crisis brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    The country needs action on top of the talk.
    It will require citizens living up to the words in the National Anthem by being… loyal sons and daughters…
    Here is an idea for the Mia Mottley administration.
    Tell all members of state-owned boards and private companies that they must surrender their directors’ fees or stipends for the remainder of this year.
    Those people who do not want to want this COVID-19 sacrifice should resign.
    These funds should go directly to the special assistance programmes Government has established to help the less fortunate.
    People appointed by the government to various boards must show solidarity with the thousands of Barbadians facing a bleak financial future because of job loss.
    There must be a display of care and compassion by these fortunate board members who in most instances have an economic cushion to rest on during these difficult times.
    They are hundreds of these board officials and the government can easily quantify and publicly state the amount that can be raised through this initiative.
    Prime Minister Mottley must also reduce overseas travel whether by Cabinet ministers, political appointees and senior public officials except in special cases. There must also be a drastic reduction in the level of first-class and even business class travel by those travelling on the public purse.
    Barbados is facing very uncertain times given the virtual disappearance of the important tourism sector. People in the main source markets of North America, Europe and the Caribbean will not be travelling in large numbers until the coronavirus is fully under. Our foreign exchange earnings capacity will be severely shaken.
    It is going to be about trust and confidence before things return to near normal which means lots of uncertainty hanging over this island for at least the next six months.
    This is not good news for the thousands of Barbadians who depend on tourism and its allied services.
    These people are going to be nervous and afraid which is why we must extend tangible support to them and others now unemployed during the coming months.

  18. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    The only solution is devaluation. Devaluation is our salvation.

  19. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU

    Why is it that these “could dear” mendicant ideas surface from persons who should know better? When we were growing up in days of yore the society frowned on begging. The authorities have already put measures in place to handle the interim fall out of the economic consequences of the COVID -19 Pandemic. The same places these identified largesse comes from are the places that are not operating because of shut downs.
    Are we ready? Do we think?

  20. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    We just have to get our economy back on stream as soon as is possible. The disruption although temporary is real and pervasive. Sacrifices have to be made.

  21. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ Tron

    Behave yourself ,do.You got something to sell? Any body buying from you? What is the use of your exchange rate? Stop the Litany do. The church shut down.

  22. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    The Barbadian path is very encouraging. Despite the fear mongering, the results are impressive. Keep on, for this isn’t over yet.

  23. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    When I kill a centipede I spray it, then crush it! One might say I kill it twice. GP is talking his usual nonsense. He is not even sure if the centipede is dead.

  24. Donna Avatar
    Donna

    Tron,

    Please provide me with a list of Caribbean countries where devaluation lead to their salvation.

  25. Amit Avatar
    Amit

    I’ve been doing weekly analysis around the number of reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 across CARICOM. For Barbados, the numbers have been decreasing (based on what I’ve tracked thus far). However, Jamaica was also slowing down in terms of reported confirmed cases, but then you had the call centre incident and there was a huge spike.

    When I present the data, I refrain from drawing conclusions or making projects. I simply present the data. Personally speaking, I think it’s to early to tell for Barbados. Mind you, I’m glad to hear that there haven’t been any new cases over the last few days. However, that could be due to a number of reasons: lack of testing kits, persons who are infected but are asymptomatic, et cetera.

    Stay safe everyone!

    https://www.caribbeansignal.com/2020/04/18/covid-19-vs-the-caribbean-confirmed-cases-as-at-april-17-2020/

  26. ks Avatar
    ks

    Devaluation for a country that exports very little and import mostly everything…. would be economic disaster!!!

  27. Ping Pong Avatar
    Ping Pong

    What is the point of plotting the log of the number of cumulative cases? Also what is important the cumulative number of positive cases or the number of active cases?

  28. Sandra Avatar
    Sandra

    Dear TRON, most of your advice given here is so misguided you are a danger perhaps worse than the virus.

    If Barbados succumbs to devaluation, it will rapidly following the path of Venezuela. You have the right mix in Mottley and Gonsalves to quite easily become another Venezuela. The commi mix is a real danger to society everywhere they are all looking for and promoting a new world order. People like you TRON are a great help to them in promoting silly ideas and supporting the real rubbish of this world.

  29. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    The Barbados dollar is over valued and beyond our control. If we control our sovereign currency we control our economy. We must decouple from the Greenback and fix against a basket of currencies and commodities..

  30. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    Dear TRON, most of your advice given here is so misguided you are a danger perhaps worse than the virus.

    If Barbados succumbs to devaluation, it will rapidly following the path of Venezuela. You have the right mix in Mottley and Gonsalves to quite easily become another Venezuela. The commi mix is a real danger to society everywhere they are all looking for and promoting a new world order. People like you TRON are a great help to them in promoting silly ideas and supporting the real rubbish of this world.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    IF YOU ARE A LOCAL GO TO THE TOP OF THE CLASS.

    GLAD TO SEE OTHERS CAN DECIPHER WHERE BARBADOS IS HEADING.

  31. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, excuse me for getting into ”your” business… but dont you think that @Lyallsmall’s updating graph would be better placed on your sideboard dash rather that a specific blog!

    He said he will update it regularly so I presume you can more easily modify a dashboard item..also of course we see it upfront and can comment/respond more readily…. Anyhow that’s your thing so whatever works for you and team.

    GENERALLY: Yes “the Barbadian path is very encouraging”. Long may it continue…. Just goes to show had the admin been more proactive at the top we would have been here MUCH earlier 🙂 …

    And thus we would have been dealing with this other debates that “we need to get back to work” sooner too … ah well … damned when you don’t do and doubly damned when your do-do turns out so fantastic that everyone wants you to hurry off the ‘pot’. Amazing life!

    BTW @David… a reminder for all Bajans re your remark “[Barbadians] like many here are heavily influenced by US media where there is a move to aggressively reopen the country.”

    NO SIR….. SOME states want an aggressive reopen… and yes the POTUS…. but there are also just as many states that DO NOT and are slowly moving to that reopen point…

    The US is at one during the Olympics, at the UN and so on but in real political terms (Life) it’s 50 DIFFERENT countries… that’s said often but needs repeating MORE often…. And that my friend is NOT being pedantic…

    Bajans unlike Americans do NOT have the luxury to waffle and fight among themselves about reopening so lets FORGET about the US in general and look to A STATE that best fits OUR needs…

    Just saying, bro!

  32. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    @ Sandra April 21, 2020 1:15 PM

    Dear Sandra,

    We have a structural problem in Barbados. Government spending is far too high, so that the private sector and productivity are suffering. No other island in the Caribbean, with the exception of Cuba perhaps, suffers such a bloated bureaucracy. I am tired of feeding 30,000 civil servants, many of whom work a maximum of 20 hours a week and the rest of the time polishing fingernails or playing on the iPhone.

    Behind closed doors, many politicians and businessmen agree with me. But at the same time they say that a structural reform of the civil service is impossible because the civil service is the largest group of voters. Let us be honest for once. The only thing left to us therefore is devaluation.

    Either the government finally has the courage to massively downsize the public sector or we have to devaluate. Currency depreciation is nothing more than a soft form of structural reform because it reduces public sector expenditure (quoted in USD) relative to currency devaluation. After all, a currency devaluation does not affect the diligent workers in the tourism sector, but only the civil servants. So my position is not Marxist at all.

    I would also like to take this opportunity to document, dear Sandra, that the hundred or so economic advisors have achieved not many targets since 2018. One single person would be enough to finally clean up the mess in the public service.

  33. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    In addition, I would like to point out that the savings since 2018 have been achieved almost exclusively through losses by state creditors.

    We have not yet had any real structural reform in the public sector. Those who can read and are not too drunk should have a look at https://www.gov.bb/: We have 23 ministries, 70 state bodies and 51 departments. Such a large organizational structure is normally found in countries with at least 100 million inhabitants, but not in micro-states.

    I know, dear Sandra, that you do not want to scare away voters. But it doesn’t help to gloss over reality.

  34. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    Either the government finally has the courage to massively downsize the public sector or we have to devaluate. Currency depreciation is nothing more than a soft form of structural reform because it reduces public sector expenditure (quoted in USD) relative to currency devaluation. After all, a currency devaluation does not affect the diligent workers in the tourism sector, but only the civil servants. So my position is not Marxist at all.

    I would also like to take this opportunity to document, dear Sandra, that the hundred or so economic advisors have achieved not many targets since 2018. One single person would be enough to finally clean up the mess in the public service.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    WELL SAID.

    ALONG WITH STOPPING ALL THE BORROWING AND BEGGING WHILST BOGGING DOWN THE ISLAND WITH MORE DEAD WEIGHT OF DEBT.

    MUST LEARN TO SURVIVE AND BECOME CREATIVE WITH THE LITTLE RESOURCES THE ISLAND HAS.

    IN OTHER WORDS “SHIT OR GET OFF THE POT”.

    NO MORE FREE RIDES FOR THE POLITICIANS AND THEIR LACKEYS TIME TO DO OR DIE.

  35. David Avatar
    David

    @Dee Word

    Thanks for the good suggestion.

    Regarding aggressive opening of business in the US the reference was to POTUS.

    >

  36. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    @Donna

    “Please provide me with a list of Caribbean countries where devaluation lead to their salvation.”

    DEVALUATION is NOT A SAVIOR, it’s a means to control the unsypported(financially) expenditures and force a government and populace to live WITHIN THEIR MEANS, ie: do not continually spend more than you earn by constantly BORROWING.

    It’s an effective way to enforce financial prudence in out of control financial disciple. To name a few CARICOM COUNTRUES where this has/Is working Jamacia, Turks & Caicos, Guyana etc.

  37. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    @is

    “Devaluation for a country that exports very little and import mostly everything…. would be economic disaster!!!”

    As for economic disaster, you have that now and four times since independence, continuing problem over time. DEVALUATION would cause significant financial PAIN, however it would prevent future occurrences.

  38. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    @ks not is

  39. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    @David

    Not sure but appears this post may have some malware attached, continually get two splash screens when opening this article. Please take a look.

  40. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    I continued my stroll today. Leaving at 5.30AM. The place is deserted. I reach Jordan’s Supermarket its about 5.40 AM. There are only two persons in the line. We discuss whether Jordan’s would actually open at 7.00AM. The place is shuttered tight and there are no signs of any activities. I informed the two women who only wanted to get to “Sure Pay” that I intended to leave since Jordan’s was not known for starting at 7.00AM and that I should really try Popular. I leave and arrived at Popular. There is not much of a crowd. I am number nine in the line. I survey the the people. There are two oddities who stand out. There is a male who has a satchel over his shoulders lodged in the recess that leads to the office Cyril Alleyne, Dental Technician . He has his legs crossed and is wearing a mask. He is a very young looking seventy. He is informed that today is for the over seventies: he tells us he will take his chances. The other oddity is a woman maybe in her early thirties. She is knock-kneed and is wearing a short denim skirt and beige T-shirt. She is masked. She is informed by one of the seniors that she is definitely not seventy or over. She retorts that last week it was her term based on surnames and that she has no intention of leaving. After a while she goes and sit on one one the benches used by the hawkers. Cyril the surveyor comes bye. At first I did not believe my eyes. He is dressed in a short-sleeved pocket-less blue shirt, with dark slacks and brown leather boots He is really looking sharp. He is normally disheveled He wants to know since when I qualified as a senior. He proceeds to go by the newspaper vendor. He returns shortly asking if I have any change,. The vendor informed him that he has just set up shop and does not have any change. I want to know what kind of business man the fellow is. I give him the money but tell him not to make a habit of it. I survey the crowd. The Wibisco merchandizer is busy as a bee. She seems to be one hot number, wearing skin-fitting pants and bodice. Over heard her one time saying that she likes wearing news clothes. I wonder how she manages to get in to the clothes. We have had lingering eye-contact a time or two ,but I have done nothing. Just allowed things to slide. My dad must be turning in his grave, he never missed an opportunity. It is time. The security guard hands out numbers and glances perfunctorily at the ID’s. The satchel man presents his ID. It passes the inspection. The line moves quickly to the next check-point the door. The satchel man enters, no problem what so ever. I present my ID at the door. I am told that was not required, that the number was all that was required( There is no way that a supermarket will turn away paying customers). I am out of the place by 7.15 AM. Returned home . Leave and go Cherish. The line is not large. Proceed to Scotty’s. There is no problem entering the place. A woman enters without showing her ID. She is pulled up and told to do like me. There is no crowd. Proceed to Goddard’s Supermarket. Lose my way, since entrance is restricted to the back entrance. Asked for directions at a checkpoint and eventually arrived to witness a stand-off between a security guard and a Rasta who has come to the aid of a decrepit senior. It appears that a certain number is allowed in and only when some leave are others allowed in. This was not told to the senior, who ,even with the aid of a cane, could hardly move along. The Rasta protested the treatment, since the situation was not explained to the senior. The Guard just refused to say anything to the senior, who looked more dead than alive. The matter was duly resolved and apologies issued to the senior. There were no Boston Butts. Decided to pay the Pig Farmers’ co-operative a visit proceeded up Roebuck St. Stop at Hill’s. There is no crowds. Bought two kilo of oak flakes. There is no showing of ID’s. Like Popular hands are sanitized. All are welcome regardless of age. There is no hustle. Everything flows smoothly. The Co-operative has no carcasses. Leave and stop by Cyril. He buys a drank and we sample it. He is always reminding me that he had a soft spot for my ex, who taught him geography. Return home. Decide that I will buy some chicken. Out of curiosity, I swing by Jordan’s. There is a long line .It stretches from the supermarket proper all along the lane which backs the fire. station. Passes Popular, there is a line but it is not very large. Enters Sewing World and had a look around. Pass Cherish and I am hailed by a stunning looking female. I cannot place her at first but she knows me well: she knows that I do a lot of walking. I am embarrass to ask her name but she looks like Vida. If she is Vida , what a remarkable transformation.. I approached and she inquires about my well being. Bought the chicken. There is no crowd. Things seem to be working out .

  41. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    Correction: There are no crowds.

  42. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @ Robert

    Keep your eyes on the prize, not the young buxom women. Good descriptive essay.

  43. TheOGazerts Avatar
    TheOGazerts

    Some good chuckles
    I give him the money but tell him not to make a habit of it.
    We have had lingering eye-contact a time or two ,but I have done nothing. Just allowed things to slide.
    . He is always reminding me that he had a soft spot for my ex, who taught him geography. Return home.

    And the question on my mind .. Was it Vida? Things sliding too much. You coulda try a thing….maybe?

  44. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    @ Wily Coyote April 21, 2020 3:41 PM

    Thank you very much for your support.

    Despite this, the local establishment does not want to admit at all that the specifically “Barbadian way” leads to a dead end. This fatal mixture consists of low productivity, a bloated civil service, a totally overvalued currency, permanent tax increases and borrowing to pay interest on old debts.

    You do not need a university degree, just common sense to realise that this policy is to blame for 12 years of zero growth. Now we are facing a major recession, which is not likely to be reversed any time soon.

    Perhaps the perceived one hundred government advisers will tell us that taxes will have to be raised once again, even though we pay the highest fuel prices after Hong Kong. When it comes to the civil service apparatus: treacherous silence, as always.

    Stop lying to yourself.

    We all know there are other options. Independent economists have long been calling for structural reforms in Barbados. The government has also listened to science at Corona and has achieved good results so far. It is now time, once Corona is over, to finally listen to independent economists and not to political appeasers who worry about election results. I therefore propose that the elections be suspended until 2030 in order to take away the fear of popular revenge for structural reforms. The example of Chile and China teaches us impressively that sometimes a dictatorship achieves higher growth rates than a democracy that only takespublic servants and unions into account.

    DISCLAIMER

    This diagnosis is explicitly not to be understood as a specific criticism of the present government, but as a criticism of the general attitude. I will never criticize anything in order to support the DLP. Barrow, nemesis of Barbados, invented the pegging to the US dollar, the civil service apparatus, the DLP and many other bad things. And Chris Sinckler stands for the impoverishment of the black middle class from 2008 to 2018. Remember that well!

  45. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @Wily
    Turks? they are British protectorate who use the $US. And every time they eff up they run to London.

  46. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    Wily probably meant Guyana. The Guyana dollar is at 200:1 and at the same time Guyana is experiencing a boom this year with 50 percent economic growth! So devaluation works very well.

  47. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    @NO

    EXACTLY, RUN TO MOTHER OR in BARBADOS case IMF.

  48. GP Avatar
    GP

    @ROBERT LUCAS, MICROBIOLOGIST

    RE The Wibisco merchandizer is busy as a bee. She seems to be one hot number, wearing skin-fitting pants and bodice. Over heard her one time saying that she likes wearing news clothes. I wonder how she manages to get in to the clothes. We have had lingering eye-contact a time or two ,but I have done nothing. Just allowed things to slide. My dad must be turning in his grave, he never missed an opportunity.

    RE Pass Cherish and I am hailed by a stunning looking female. I cannot place her at first but she knows me well: she knows that I do a lot of walking. I am embarrass to ask her name but she looks like Vida. If she is Vida , what a remarkable transformation.. I approached and she inquires about my well being.

    DISSAPOINTED IN YOU MAN
    YOU MEAN YOU DIDNT EVEN DO A GRAM STAIN? MURDAH LOL LOL WUHLOSS

  49. The Watcher Avatar
    The Watcher

    I have been reading the comments in this post regarding “Flattening the curve” as we continue to hunker down in fear of a virus that cannot be accurately be described as a Pandemic.
    If a Pandemic is by definition, a Global Epidemic, then I submit that this virus having been seen worldwide would fulfill one requirement of the definition, it certainly hasn’t infected many individuals simultaneously based on its numbers relative to the world population.
    At the writing of this piece, there were 2528396 cases, (that’s over two and a half million) with just around 175000 deaths and 650000+ recoveries.
    In perspective to the world population they are over 2billion people between China and India alone. This means that they have been less than 1% deaths worldwide relative to those two populations. If we take the estimated world population into account, it goes even smaller.
    If we take the number of cases globally and divide by the number of deaths the number suggests that 14.5 % of the persons contracting covid have died from it.
    Let’s now bring this home.

    In January 1, 2020 we started gathering. We gathered successfully until Feb 28 2020 with no real concern for Covid. Then, in mid March, under the direction of a supposed Czar, we went into panic mode making rash decisions fueled by fear and the lies promoted by the W.H.O and CDC. So, where does this all lead and what does it all mean?
    Lets decompose this mathematically for a minute, but not enough math to scare the average reader.

    The exponential growth formula x(t) = x0 × (1 + r) dictates that if 10 persons with Covid on Jan 1, came into contact with one person each and passed on the virus to them with steady growth within the month of January, such that by the end of January, the rate of virus transmission was around 25% across the population ( a very modest figure if you realize that the first 10 doubles each time contact is made) then by the formula the number of persons who would have been exposed would be 10097 persons or just about 1/3 of our population by month-end.

    Extend this into Feb for 28 days holding the transmission rate to 25% but starting with the previous number, and the figure grows to well over 1000000.

    Conservatively, reduce the growth or transmission rate to 5% just to be modest , start with 10097 persons and calculate the new figure over 28 days and the result is 39581 or MORE PEOPLE THAT BARBADOS HAS

    Mind you, the reason that I am not putting the actual numbers here is because they are huge. I am only illustrating that the likelihood that we have already past the worse, and have probably beat this based on having strong immunity is significant.

    Bringing this home, we are WASTING OUR TIME playing hide and seek from a virus with only 300 000 people in our population. We are listening to “junk science” promoted by medical misfits who are following the CDC and W.H.O. Two organizations who have been caught lying about the numbers related to Covid and didn’t even bother to wipe the egg off their proverbial faces when caught, choosing rather to keep trying to promote fear and trembling. Look, we even went as far as to allow a Czar ( you don’t know how disdainful I find this name to be) to proclaim how we are alphabetizing the supply of Gasoline as if persons should take the 3 or 4 hours allotted to conduct business to waste one in trying to get gas. Completely Idiotic.
    We have collectively allowed Barbados’ economy to take a significant hit based on fear and science which has the credibility of Obeah.
    Its just high time Barbados;Time to stop this!

  50. Miller Avatar
    Miller

    @ Sandra April 21, 2020 1:15 PM
    “Dear TRON, most of your advice given here is so misguided you are a danger perhaps worse than the virus.
    If Barbados succumbs to devaluation, it will rapidly following the path of Venezuela. You have the right mix in Mottley and Gonsalves to quite easily become another Venezuela. The commi mix is a real danger to society everywhere they are all looking for and promoting a new world order. People like you TRON are a great help to them in promoting silly ideas and supporting the real rubbish of this world.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Sandra the ghost of Freedom Craoker:
    Why do you think Tron’s advice is that outrageous and dangerous?

    Tron is not that off the mark with his assessment of a pending devaluation.

    Didn’t your PM make a similar assessment when it was declared- just after the May 2018 elections- that Barbados was broke and on the very brink of devaluation?

    Wasn’t that state of imploding financial affairs the cause of Barbados defaulting on the payment of its liabilities and forcing the country into ‘financial administration’ under the direct control of the IMF?

    If Bim was that close to the brink of Devaluation at a time when its tourism industry was recording record arrivals why is the well-reasoned thought of a pending devaluation such a far-off spectre of reality given the ravages Covid-19 is wreaking on the country’s ‘idle’ one-cylinder economy?

    What makes Barbados so special that its currency can remain on the highest peg in the Caricom trading region vis-à-vis the Greenback?

    How would Barbados be able to sell anything to the other Caricom countries when their currencies are more realistically valued ‘against’ the US$?

    The main objective for implementing the tool of an external devaluation for the Barbados fast sinking economy is to significantly curb the high level of conspicuous consumption of unaffordable imports mainly by the pseudo middle class.

    The country must put an immediate end to the importation of SUVs and other luxury ICE-powered vehicles along with the latest in entertainment gadgets and technologies unless bought with ‘earned’ foreign currency.

    The old technique of internal devaluation by means of taxation in no longer effective under the coming dispensing of the medicine needed to treat the unravelling economic injuries left by Covid.

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