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Flattened Curve

With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight. We started at a trend of 20 new cases each week, then 8, and now 4. If we continue to have zero new cases over the next 2 days, we would have reached the goal of zero new cases…

grenville-phillips
Submitted by Grenville Phillips II

With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight. We started at a trend of 20 new cases each week, then 8, and now 4. If we continue to have zero new cases over the next 2 days, we would have reached the goal of zero new cases in one week.

The Government must take the good with the bad. Therefore, they deserve praise for the improving trend. Well done.
We have flattened the curve before the Government had planned. The Government was wise to plan for the worst. Happily, it seems unlikely that we will see the worst. This puts the Government in the enviable position if having options.
We have a significant amount of health resources that we may no longer need for the COVID-19 response. We can either squander the resources on unnecessary use, or we can maintain them for a similar pandemic.
A more urgent issue is the 24-hour curfew. A deadline of 4 May 2020 was determined on the assumption that we would had had a lot more cases.
The longer the curfew is maintained, the greater the debt-burden on Barbadians, who are spending without earning. Soon, they will run out of access to money.
It is important that the Government share the plan for allowing persons to return to work. It is equally important that the Government share the plan for securing our borders, to prevent an unnecessary reoccurrence of infections.
Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

 

187 responses to “Flattened Curve”

  1. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    Thank you very much for your support.

    Now something else, on the TRUE topic.

    Have a look at the following article:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v3

    The article explains that the Wuhan plague can only spread very slowly in our area at the equator. I assume that we will be completely virus-free by the end of the month.

    Of course our government has made a significant contribution here. Thank you, dear Mia. (so that nobody thinks I work for the evil opposition…, LOL)

    At least we can concentrate on economic reconstruction then. In the north, the plague will continue to ravage throughout the spring and then again from autumn. In other words, there is no hope for the economy in the north.

    p.s. The outbreak in Jamaica in the call center is explained by the air conditioning. It creates optimal conditions for the virus. We should turn off the air conditioning in the hotels just to be on the safe side. Better sweat than death.

  2. Silly Woman Avatar
    Silly Woman

    A few BU posters frequently refer to Bajans as sheeple, or say that we learn by rote. The good thing about being sheeple is that sheeple are very good at OBEYING, sheeple follow the shepherd.

    Barbados may have flattened the curve so quickly PRECISELY BECAUSE WE ARE SHEEPLE.

    But–still keeping my fingers crossed, still praying and hoping that we get to day 14 with no new cases, and that we get to the day when all current patients are well and back home again.

    And EXACTLY the same for the rest of the world.

  3. David Avatar
    David

    Of Guinea Pigs – and Piglets.

    Today (21 April 2020), it was reported that we had 6 days of no new COVID-19 cases. We are on the brink of reaching the target of zero new cases in one week. Any subsequent cases are expected to be from those in isolation facilities, who got infected caring for others in the same facility.

    It is now critically important that the Government share the plan to restart the economy, so that we can all prepare to resume earning. Waiting until the last minute, and then declaring that things must be done “with immediate effect”, is not helpful.

    Those with guaranteed incomes, and no care about others’ financial situations, are making impractical and dangerous recommendations. One is that we should remain on curfew until every Barbadian is tested and vaccinated.

    At the current rate of testing, it would take about 24 years to test us all. If we tripled the rate of testing, then it would take 8 years. Therefore, testing everyone is impractical. However, it is their vaccination suggestion that is gravely concerning.

    Various labs are trying to develop a vaccine for this virus. Because of the unacceptable risks involved, vaccines are normally tested on animals first. If the vaccine causes severe complications in animals, the researchers must iteratively try again, until it is safe for humans.

    Many companies, in their rush to be the first to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, are neglecting the critically important testing on animals. Two leading European doctors publicly stated that any new COVID-19 vaccine, should be tested on Africans.

    The company that patents the first vaccine will become fantastically profitable. Companies that follow the normal protocol of testing animals, risk being left behind. China is already testing their vaccine on humans.

    The world desperately needs a Government that is willing to surrender its people to be the test guinea pigs. That Government must be strong enough to make quick decisions unopposed, and indebted enough to unquestioningly follow instructions from an international body.

    Coincidentally, the Government of Barbados meets both of those criteria. Therefore, the Government needs to reassure Barbadians that we, and our children, will not be required to take a vaccine that has not been properly tested.

    Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

  4. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    Apparently there has been another death and another person has tested positive for the virus. As I stated previously, it was premature to assumed that everything was honky-dory. I have repeatedly maintained that the slot from 15-20 of March, when no mandatory quarantine was instituted, is the bug-bear.

  5. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    @ GP April 21, 2020 5:59 PM

    No comment.

  6. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    “With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight”

    The words of some one who knows absolutely nothing about the topic he is pontificating on. As I posted in reply @Lyall Small ” wait and see” in response to the apparent slowing of positives testing for the Wuhan virus. People seem to forget the the time-slot 15-22 March when there was no mandatory testing and persons were allowed to wander freely in society. It all comes back to person Z that I have been alluding to. I also alluded to the fact that these viral episodes always seem to come in one or more waves, some of which are more virulent than the first wave . The author of the post should stop trying to act like an authority on the topic.

  7. GP Avatar
    GP

    RE obert lucasApril 22, 2020 8:53 PM

    @ GP April 21, 2020 5:59 PM

    No comment.

    JUST HAD TO TEASE YOU THERE LOL LOL
    FIGURED IF YOU WERE NOT GOING TO STREAK THE SAMPLES YOU WOULD AT LEAST HAVE DONE A GRAM STAIN LOL LOL

    BE GOOD AND BE SAFE WISE SIR..

  8. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    Bob;

    Please note that your post above refers to the statement by Greville Philips II in the chapeau to this topic, viz “With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight. We started at a trend of 20 new cases each week, then 8, and now 4. If we continue to have zero new cases over the next 2 days, we would have reached the goal of zero new cases in one week.”

    Those were NOT my statements. I was much more nuanced in my statements and actually think that “one swallow does not a summer make”. Let us wait a bit as new cases unfold and see what is the actual outturn.

    I’ll post later on what I think the new case of ONE woman who now tested positive on 21st april and who was apparently a March 14th contactee of an individual who was one of the first group of positive cases actually means in terms of estimating the end of the Barbados outbreak.

  9. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    Lyallsmall April 23, 2020 9:33 AM

    The post does not refer to you. I Inserted that part “to wait and see”, to which you replied that was the case.to illustrate a point that one should not be as dogmatic as the writer of the above post.

  10. David Avatar
    David

    Share the Plan – Please.

    We started with 20 cases per week, then 8, and now we have flattened to 1. Normally this would be good news, but the Czar seems to have other ideas. He reportedly stated the following.

    “There can be no immediate contemplation or consideration of lifting restrictions right now. … One live case means that you have to be considering and dealing and trying to get to zero. Essentially that is our goal, to get to zero cases in Barbados.”

    “We don’t know how many or whether there are other cases that have not been diagnosed within the community. … we can never be 100 per cent sure outside of testing every single person.”

    If these statements are true, then it is important that we know the plan going forward.

    Is the plan to stop us from working until every person in the isolation facility has either recovered or died? Is the plan to stop us from working until every Barbadian has been tested or vaccinated? What is the plan? Why should it remain a secret?

    The Government has trusted some businesses to maintain masking and separation requirements. That trust was not misplaced, since it did not result in a spike in cases. Why not trust other businesses to be similarly responsible?

    No other business is likely to have the masses of people that a typical supermarket has. Therefore, it will likely be much easier for them to implement the distancing requirements.

    What is the harm in sharing the plan? Why not allow businesses to start making the necessary changes to comply with the plan?

    Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

  11. GP Avatar
    GP

    All is not lost in Bim

    Listen to the Cathedral choir point Psalm 27.

    Very good clear diction and choral singing. This is world class!

  12. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David;

    Thanks for sight of today’s Daily Nation article on the new case that was reported on yesterday. Wow!

    Looks like there are several un-tracked persons out there who could have been identified earlier except for inadequacy of testing and other resources. Hope that the new significant increase in testing resources (material and human) will identify most of the contactees fairly quickly.

    Looks like there is now community spread as defined in any reasonable way.

    All hands will have to be on deck to do the necessary contact tracing.

    Hope we are not at the start of an upsurge in positive cases similar to that which occurred in Jamaica with the identification of the call centre cases there.

  13. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David;

    Your “share the plan” post at 10:03 am above makes some very important points re. going forward.

    The Government needs to have a clear documented determination of what constitutes the end of the epidemic as well as what mix of reliable data captures that endpoint. I suggest that one possibility might be that victory and the end of the epidemic might be when random testing in a series of professionally designed testing programme finds that x percent of all individuals test negative for Covid-19 over a period of say 38 days (2 covid-19 life cycles + the longest period in days reported in the literature for Covid-19 propagules to remain infective on hard surfaces).

    It would be interesting to find out what is the current yardstick that is being used to determine what will be the prevalence of the virus, as informed by Covid-19 factors, that will be predetermined to allow the different stages of reopening various aspects of the Economy (schools, touristic and business airline and cruise ship travel, home lock down – curfews, large sports activities, festivals etc).

  14. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David;

    Please note that as we approach June and july , environmental factors such as sunlight hours, ambient temperatures, rainfall, etc., might become very important in constraining the virus and resricting its infectivity.

  15. John A Avatar
    John A

    Awaiting a response from the covid team on the article in the Nation by Maria Bradshaw.

  16. David Avatar
    David

    @Lyall

    Is your 12:13PM evidence based?

  17. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David

    Only in so far as the recent SARS and H2N1 outbreaks were concerned. There are numerous articles as well as the reported spread of those “pandemics” from Asia that are suggestive of a repressive influence by heat and sunlight on the spread and infectivity of those viruses. There is even the school of thought that the seasonal expression of the common flu (another coronavirus) might be partially due to such seasonality.

    Covid-19 is a new “novel” virus and corroborative or other data data does not yet exist but it is not outside the realm of possibility that it might well be susceptible to a dampening under tropical conditions.

  18. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    There is no scientific prove that temperature will affect the virus. There was an article in the Daily Mail reporting on the exposure of viral particles to 60 degree centigrade. The particles were were only inactivated after prolong heating. In any event, viral particles occupy a special spot: whether they are considered alive or lifeless.

  19. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    From my reading, most people seem to be looking at temperature alone as what kills the virus which I think is wrong.

    I think it is actually multiple factors including stronger UV Rays from the sun destroying the virus particles faster, increased vitamin D production in your skin which boosts your immune system, being exposed to more natural fresh air and getting more exercise as a result of the improved weather.

  20. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David; I just sent an updated graph reflecting the fact that there were no new positive cases identified yesterday.

    re. the question on the effect of high temperatures and sunlight on Covid-19 President Trump had a scientist from Homeland Security on his PR team tonight who essentially reported that the results of a series of experiments in experimental chambers had shown conclusively that exposure to higher than ambient temperatures and simulated sunlight at different RH’s as well as ordinary disinfectants rapidly inactivated the viruses. I expect that there will be numerous reports on the work soon.

  21. Freedom Crier Avatar
    Freedom Crier

    Bloody Shame that they have not realized Sooner that Sunlight and Heat Kills this Virus… We have been Locked down from Vitamin Sea and D…the Very Important Elements that Can Save Lives!

    https://www.facebook.com/Maggiebell.the.potter/videos/10212720057914673/

  22. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    It’s Bloody Profits Not Bloody Shame. We should not even have a curve to flatten in the first place. The treatments that work won’t make the medical industry any profits.

    Watch this video and tell me if the 6 deaths we had and money spent so far was unnecessary or not and whether we should be under stay at home orders.

  23. Mariposa Avatar
    Mariposa

    If as suggested that sunlight kills the virus
    Then how come Fla has over thirty thousand Corona cases and aprox 1000 cases each day

  24. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    @Mariposa April 24, 2020 5:45 AM

    Think of it like this. You just wash your new clothes to wear to a party today. Where will you put them to dry in the sun, inside your house or an air conditioned building.

    There is no one magic pill to keep corona cases at zero. It is a matter of making your body and physical environment as hostile as possible to the virus survival.

  25. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    For anyone interested;

    Here is a report on the segment of Trump’s taskforce presentation that dealt with a DHS study on the effect of sunlight heat and standard disinfectants on covid-19 particles in droplets.
    https://www.france24.com/en/20200424-usa-coronavirus-covid-19-sunlight-disinfectant-pandemic-research-virus-respiratory-disease

  26. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @LSmall and @CrticalA, the purpose of spending our childhood in school is to become ‘critical thinkers’ of life around us and allow us to navigate it sensibly….whether we go on to further education and professional accreditation or not, that education fundamentally sets us on a path to understand science, commerce, weather patterns and so on … thus it DOES not take a epidemiologist or a infectious disease expert to affirm that the conditions of heat (strong sunlight) and related climatic conditions will weaken a virus outside of its host …nor that chemical disinfectants will invariably reduce its ability to spread…. That has been accepted science forever…since high school general science or biology classes..

    It has never been accepted that sunlight or heat themselves can similarly remove or kill the virus directly as it resides within its host…. That’s voodoo or santeria…NOT science….and would be a suitable miraculous intervention if now true.

    That any world leader would attempt to cheer his citizens with such absurd remarks is a reflection of his ability to get folks to focus on HIM and make him top of news and thus look past the serious issues… it’s not serious.

    If any Bajan kid in a NON FCTION short story essay had offered to use cleaning chemicals “like injection inside, or almost a cleaning” to be studied as a medical remedy his teacher would give him a D for doubtful …and as he wrote so ‘perfectly well’ and entertained encourage him as a future best selling author of fiction.

    However if any other adult here had mused about that or what could happen if doctors “brought the light inside the body” they would be labelled morons at minimum and mentally challenged most surely.

    POTUS remarks were a joke looking for its comedy backdrop! …. One can only hope no one injects themselves with bleach based on his remarks or lays out in the sun to be cured.!

  27. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    dpD;

    I don’t think that I suggested at anytime in my posts on the subject of Coronaviruses that heat or sunlight or disinfectants could cure or eliminate viruses from infected bodies. I merely tried to provide references to Trump’s performance last night without comments.

    Of course it was laughable for Trump to suggest the above as a possible spinoff benefit of the Homeland Security Department’ s study, but the hyping and slight twisting of Trump’s remarks were really hitting below the belt in this particular case. He really seemed to be attempting to make it clear in his unique peculiar way that he was merely making some suggestions for consideration for future research, laughable though such suggestions might be to any sensible onlooker. He succeeded in only garnering support from his unthinking 40% of the electorate because they could say that the treatment by MSNBC and CNN was unjustified. I think that such treatment was not fair and unbiased and therefore was more comparable to what might be expected to be how FOX would treat it. MSNBC and CNN, even though they have previous, copious justification, took the low road on this one.

    However, wasn’t it priceless to both see Ambassador Birx’s attempt to merge into her chair and the expression on her face as Trump tried to make his case, to the chagrin of Birx and others in the room?

    In any case, I think that when and if the details of the research come out and we see what happens with the onslaught of Covid-19 in our neck of the woods in the coming months that such research might not be seen as risible and out of place as it seems to many right now.

    Trump, imho, is a buffoon with unspeakable power who has no human feelings and who callously always seeks to use that power solely for his own personal aggrandisement, but in this case, he only appeared to be clumsily seeking to ride on the back of his perceived win re. his early statement that Covid-19 would cause about 15 deaths and then disappear.

  28. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David;

    One more positive case from yesterday tests as reported in Barbados Today.

  29. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid10.png

  30. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    And @Lsmall nor did I suggest you or the other blogger did re “I don’t think that I suggested at anytime in my posts on the subject of Coronaviruses that heat or sunlight or disinfectants could cure or eliminate viruses from infected bodies”… I used both your remarks to get to the science on this matter.

    Yes, the guy acts the buffoon well and plays us (the world, media) like a drum daily … beating us about the head and body and we respond in anger and disbelief that he could brazenly do such things… It’s a really bad joke now.

    We are all gong to die – someday – but God help the fool who listens to this man and kills themselves by following his stupidity…

    … we all can surmise that HE caused surely many deaths when at the front end of this he badly downplayed the effects of the virus…(consider the spring breakers and how the virus spread among some of them and thus their families)!… And that to say this: any sentient human, like that man in Arizona (it also gets very hot over there) who died after taking chloroquine phosphate because he thought that was the drug being touted by POTUS for cov19, is truly idiotic to be guided medically by him.

    But that sir is the power of the bully pulpit..or some of that “unspeakable power” of which you speak … so no he was not, IMHO “clumsily seeking to ride on the back of his perceived win [???] re. his early statement that Covid-19 would cause about 15 deaths”… he has been let loose since early Jan and does and says WHATEVER he wants because he could give a damn as long as he thinks it boosts his reelection and as you put it he has no real ” human feelings and […] callously always seeks to use that power solely for his own personal aggrandisement”

    This is one big show and we are all supposed to laugh at up the comedy and enjoy the show until it’s over…. and yes listen to the up to the minute reviews only from Fox … an awesome rollicking show … once you actually bought a ticket to see that performer… otherwise it’s ridiculous and dangerous to the world’s health !

  31. GP Avatar
    GP

    THE GREAT JOY OF THE BU RUM SHOP IS TO READ THE POSTS OF FOLK WHO ARE PONTIFICATING ON MATTERS THAT THEY CLEARLY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT!

  32. John A Avatar
    John A

    BREAKING NEWS

    Was just told why sinkler was picked for the covid taskforce by a leading authority and why Mia agreed with it.

    Apparently Chris told Mia he would deal with it as he did the economy when he was MOF. He apparently plans to downgrade the virus 20 times until it is less dangerous than the common cold!

    Lord I deading here. 😂😂

  33. David Avatar
    David

    https://youtu.be/uCGGb6E9JR4

  34. David Avatar
    David

    Karma is a – Hound.

    Two distinct groups have been revealed during this 24-hour curfew. One group is being paid, and the other is not.

    Those who are not being paid, risk running out of money. Soon, they will not be able to afford to feed their families and pay their monthly expenses. They would like to start earning, in an environment where the COVID-19 risk is manageable.

    Those being paid, view the curfew as a tolerable inconvenience. They are in the enviable position of being paid without working. They are not willing to return to work unless there are zero cases in Barbados, and preferably, in the world.

    We need a balance. Is it safe to work in Barbados? Evidently, yes. All employees at our: supermarkets, hardware stores, gas-stations, post-offices, and transport and sanitation services, have shown that persons can work without getting infected. So too have the contractors at Harrison Point and the airport.

    All employers and employees are accustomed to managing safety risks, as part of their normal business operations. Some of these risks have fatal consequences. COVID-19 is another safety risk, and businesses that have been allowed to work, have managed it exceptionally well.

    Persons most at risk of suffering are those with non-communicable diseases, and the elderly. Despite this, the businesses have managed the COVID-19 risk with masks and distancing. It is time to allow other businesses to demonstrate that they can do the same. To protect both employees and customers, Solutions Barbados recommends the following.

    THE PLAN.

    1. The curfew should continue from 8:00 pm to 6:00 pm, to prevent congregating.

    2. All businesses should be allowed to open from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm, with masking and separation requirements for employees and customers. Any business that does not comply with these requirements should be closed for two weeks, so that their employees can be quarantined.

    3. Employees most at risk should not be in direct contact with customers or other employees. Employers should find other roles for them, or allow them to work remotely. For example, a receptionist with a non-communicable disease may work from a remote location (eg home), and call can be routed to that location.

    4. Special deliveries of services should be provided to accommodate at-risk customers.

    5. All Government offices should be responsive between 8:00 am to 4:00 pm, with masking and separation requirements for employees and customers. Employees most at risk may work remotely.

    Jesus taught that we would be judged with the same measure that we judge others. Many have judged their fellow citizen harshly during this COVID-19 event. Their judgements will likely condemn those not being paid to poverty. Are they prepared to be on the receiving end of their judgements?

    Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

  35. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David

    I’ve just sent you a new graph that includes the latest info (from yesterday’s tests). It now appears that there is at least one outbreak cell in a government department that has significant interactions with elderly citizens. Hope tihis does not escalate like the Jamaica Call centre cell.

  36. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ David.

    Agree 100% with the guidelines above for reopening. Who is to say we will not have to live with this virus long term as we do the flu every season? In other words social distancing and mask wearing may well be the practice for the next few months with our economy reopened, as are other laws like wearing seat belts etc. In other words it will the norm in the post covid era for a while at least.

  37. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid12.png

  38. David Avatar
    David

    @Lyall

    Updated.

    @John A

    Oh to be a fly on the wall of the planning team currently doing the assessment with May 3 fast approaching. It cannot be an easy task.

  39. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    St Lucia minister says all virus patients recovered

    CASTRIES – St Lucia has become one of only three countries in the world where all of the people infected with COVID-19 have recovered. The two other nations without any deaths are Greenland and St Barth.

    In a statement providing an update Friday on the island’s COVID-19 status, the Ministry of Health said the 15 people who had tested positive for the virus have all recovered and been discharged from care.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/245193/st-lucia-minister-virus-patients-recovered

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    I NOTE NO CLOSURE OR RESTRICTED HOURS OF SUPERMARKETS, GAS STATIONS OR PHARMACIES IN ST LUCIA.

    NO DEPRIVING CITIZENS OF CIVIL LIBERTIES BY JAILING FOR 6 MONTHS.

    NO CHANGING OF THE LAW BY THEIR PRIME MINISTER TO BECOME DICTATORSHIP IN DEPRIVING MASSES OF THEIR RIGHTS,

    ARE BAJANS REALLY SHEEP?

  40. David Avatar
    David

    This is where you are incorrect. Check April 1 bulletin that was issued by St. Lucia government and you see supermarkets were closed. What is your point hammering this tired point? How is it helpful to the Barbados situation as at today? Would it not be more of an interest to you to express concern about the 50, 000 deaths in the USA and 20, 000 in the UK?

    Steuspe

  41. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    NO DEPRIVING CITIZENS OF CIVIL LIBERTIES BY JAILING FOR 6 MONTHS.

    NO CHANGING OF THE LAW BY THEIR PRIME MINISTER TO BECOME DICTATORSHIP IN DEPRIVING MASSES OF THEIR RIGHTS,

    ARE BAJANS REALLY SHEEP?

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    STEUPSE

  42. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    This is where you are incorrect. Check April 1 bulletin that was issued by St. Lucia government and you see supermarkets were closed. What is your point hammering this tired point? How is it helpful to the Barbados situation as at today? Would it not be more of an interest to you to express concern about the 50, 000 deaths in the USA and 20, 000 in the UK?

    ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

    I STAND CORRECTED ST LUCIA SUPERMARKETS WERE CLOSED FOR 1 WEEK April 1 – 7th.

    YOU SEEK TO COMPARE LITTLE SPECK IN THE OCEAN BARBADOS WITH A COUNTRY WITH OVER 326 MILLION POPULATION AND 50 STATES AND THE OTHER 66 MILLION POPULATION?

    PUNCHING ABOVE YOUR WEIGHT IN EMPTINESS.

    IN NEITHER OF THOSE COUNTRIES NO ONE HAS BEEN JAILED FOR 6 MONTHS FOR BREAKING A STUPID CURFEW DEPRIVING THEM OF THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS AND FREEDOM.

    STEUPSE

  43. John A Avatar
    John A

    @ David.

    I think a decision should be made based on accepting the fact that this virus may never totally go away.

    So we open business to the old hours including supermarkets and banks etc come may 4th.

    We however keep the social distancing and mask wearing in place say for 2 more months.

    We still restrick social gatherings etc to an agreed figure say 50 or 100 people.

    We rigourlsly enforce the laws governing the above and fine those offenders heavily. They have been given enough notice about the mask wearing and social distancing so no one can claim ” sorry boss we din know. ”

    Public transport can continue to run on the half full policy for another 60 days.

    What we need come May 4th is to reopen the country fully but with certain precautions in place and enforced. As I said we may well end up having to live with this virus for a while so lets find a new normal to live with going forward.

  44. David Avatar
    David

    @John A

    Yours is a practical approach. We have to find a way to balance the priorities. We will make mistakes but we should be nimble with decision making to reduce fallout.

  45. Baje Avatar
    Baje

    There’s “no evidence” coronavirus survivors can’t be reinfected, WHO says

    The World Health Organization (WHO) said there is “no evidence” that survivors of COVID-19 cannot be reinfected with the virus. In a statement Saturday morning, WHO warned that and false positive testing that could make the documentation inaccurate and put more people at risk of infection.

    “People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice,” WHO said. “The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/theres-no-evidence-coronavirus-survivors-165215326.html

  46. Amit Avatar
    Amit

    Hope the BU fam is safe, sound and being sensible. I’ve been looking at confirmed reported cases across CARICOM. Every Friday for the last few weeks I take a snapshot based on various data sources.

    This week (Apr 17 vs. 24), relative to previous weeks, is showing a downward trend in reported confirmed cases across some Caribbean countries.

    On the surface that appears to sound like good news, however, any downward trend should be interpreted cautiously as it may be as a result of other variables such as the number of tests/availability of tests (more/less/same?), persons not reporting symptoms (for whatever reason), persons who are infected but are asymptomatic, et cetera, et cetera…

    Here’s the link: https://www.caribbeansignal.com/2020/04/25/covid-19-vs-the-caribbean-confirmed-cases-as-at-april-24-2020/

  47. David Avatar
    David

    A commonsense approach one would think to advise next steps.

    https://youtu.be/Lze-rMYLf2E

  48. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    There were no new cases from the weekend tests as reported by CBC this morning . Therefore the cumulative cases remain at 79 in Barbados. The remainder of the NAB staff testing is expected to be completed today. This result so far is much better than I had anticipated and suggests that it may still be possible for the outbreak to continue trending downwards.

    Of course, several other factors are at play including the possibility that contact tracking might have missed several infected individuals; that significant positive results may come from the remaining tests for NAB staff today; that the dates given for tests may be very much different from the date the individuals became infected; etc. re. the last point, should the data for the individual which stopped the flattened trend (the 66 year old NAB worker) be placed three weeks earlier?

  49. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David; I sent an updated graph to you earlier this morning.

  50. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    Amit; An extremely useful way to visualize the caribbean dynamics of Covid-19.

    I’ve extracted some of your data to compare the progress of the outbreak in 6 caribbean states and they do show an interesting synchronization of the outbreak dates and the similar gross aspects of the outbreak. Indeed, they suggest that there is ONE outbreak only, not several. Looking at the whole caribbean or indeed practically all the countries of the world, the graphs reinforces the suggestion that it is one outbreak, slightly modified by individual country charcteristics, size, population scattering, etc. Indeed, there might be case to be made that country borders and separation by seas or oceans have less to do with the minor differences in the dynamics of the outbreak than gross factors such as population density etc.

    lyallsmall

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