COVID 19 Challenges for SIDs – A Lack of Discipline Exposed

 

Last week Minister of Health Jeffery D. Bostic advised the nation that critical equipment needed by Barbados to fight COVID 19 was being blocked by the United States of America. In the case of Barbados it was 20 ventilators, Cayman 50, 000 masks, Bahamas a country with a close relationship with the USA has also experienced issues clearing PPE originating in the USA.

The restriction on export of critical equipment can be traced to President Trump invoking powers under the Defense Production Act.

… the order gave the federal government more control over the procurement of coronavirus-related supplies, it also allowed the administration to ban certain exports. Trump invoked the act following a Twitter attack against U.S. manufacturer 3M over the export of its highly sought N95 respiratory face masks.

We can discussed the action by the USA from a few perspectives, one being the role of a developed country like the USA in the global humanitarian effort. What the action by the USA has exposed is that we live in a world where the sovereignty of nations will be tested. Governments of SIDs will have to find ingenious ways to implement frameworks for functional cooperation to optimally procure and deploy resources to ensure OUR citizens are protected. Since the launch of globalization, a wave of protectionist polices by developed countries makes the contrivance of the concept an opportunity for developing state to be perpetually trapped in a state of being poor.

One of the more instructive videos being shared in the social media space is one featuring Vivian Balakrishan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore, it is a must watch. One of the key takeaways for the blogmaster is the confidence with which he spoke about the committent of all citizens of Singapore to being disciplined at an individual level to ensure decisions taken by government are efficiently executed. One of several conclusions that can be made is that Barbados and many countries across the world have a long way to go if we are to wear the label a mature people, mature nations.

 

The blogmaster thanks Amit and the Anonymous member for sharing important links responsible for this blog – David, blogmaster

175 comments

  • THE CHAP YOU HIRED AND .FIRED WAS A FOOL INTRINSICALLY NOT BECAUSE HE STUDIED AT UWI

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    YOU SHOULD TELL HIM THAT.

    HE GRADUATED WITH FIRST CLASS HONORS FROM UWI CAVE HILL CAMPUS IN HIS STUDY AREA.

    FLIES IN THE FACE OF THE NONSENSE YOU PEDDLED EARLIER.

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    Wuh Loss !! The problems of SIDS children- Insecurity Multiplied.

    Like

  • @ Baje April 14, 2020 6:23 PM

    I was once in the library at St. Augustine on the third floor’ I came across a book That I am sorry I did not copy the particular section,. didn’t have the money to spare. Anyhow, the author of the particular article stated that for graduate studies in the sciences never pick a student with first class honors. He went on to state why. According to him. the first class person crammed everything and failed to develop a sense of independence of thought. The fixation was on getting the first. He said that he preferred the pass and second class students. He gave reasons as follows: he said that these particular folks were not interested in all of the courses but only in sub-sections of the course and were very good in their areas of interest, being satisfied to just pass the other courses. He went on to point out the numbers of scientists who did not do well at the first degree level who became Nobel prize winners and inventors at the cutting edge. He concluded that the first class person seemed to be dogged by the sense of expectation ,that they seldom seem capable of living up to. Maybe ,the Character you came across couldn’t adjust.

    You made some good points about the need for change. I cannot really see that occurring.

    Like

  • Lol @ Vincent….ent.🤣🤣😍

    Liked by 1 person

  • Lyall Small April 13, 2020 7:43 PM

    There is another death and another infected person. It therefore seems that there is community spread wider in nature than was at first ascertained.. The containment and tracking will have to be stepped up. Government until it gets hold of the ELISA test kits will have a struggle on its hands. The situation may over whelm the medical capabilities of this country. As I said ,mistakes were made ,but it does not make sense to play the blame game at this point. The need is pressing to find and isolate all of the hot spots. Government has to get tough with the curfew breakers.

    Like

  • According to him. the first class person crammed everything and failed to develop a sense of independence of thought. The fixation was on getting the first. He said that he preferred the pass and second class students. He gave reasons as follows: he said that these particular folks were not interested in all of the courses but only in sub-sections of the course and were very good in their areas of interest, being satisfied to just pass the other courses. He went on to point out the numbers of scientists who did not do well at the first degree level who became Nobel prize winners and inventors at the cutting edge. He concluded that the first class person seemed to be dogged by the sense of expectation ,that they seldom seem capable of living up to. Maybe ,the Character you came across couldn’t adjust.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    YOU COULD APPLY THIS SAME PRINCIPLE TO BUSINESS SUCCESS.

    UNFORTUNATELY WHAT I SAW AT UWI WHICH IS THE SAME MINDSET IN THE LOCAL HIGH SCHOOLS ARE OBSESSING WITH THE TOP GRADE ACHIEVERS WHO FOR THE MOST PART BECOME LESSER ACHIEVERS THAN SOME OF THE C & D STUDENTS LATER IN LIFE.

    BY THE WAY ONE OF MY FORMER STUDENTS COMPLETED A PHD AND IS ONE OF THE LEADERS IN HIS FIELD LOCALLY.

    I WAS HIS MENTOR SO TRIED TO EMPHASIZE OTHER AREAS OUTSIDE THE CLASSROOM.

    Like

  • Surely you realise that when Bostic said that the US had ‘seized’ the ventilators this was fake news and he has since apologised. https://www.stlucianewsonline.com/barbados-ventilators-not-seized-bostic/ However the tame Barbados media refused to run the correction of Bostic’s fake news in order to suck up to the politicians and keep their jobs. No equipment has been seized, and your comments are inaccurate about the basis upon which they are awaiting clearance. The same rules apply with material sent out of Barbados. The US has not ‘seized’ or restricted anything – that story was made up to cover the government of Barbados’ embarrassing and dramatic failures in handling the current situation. It is no mistake that they put out the fake news while in the middle of the mess over supermarklets and alcolhol and pensions. Easier to attack Trump than to actually get something right in your own country. Poor show.

    Like

  • @ Baje April 14, 2020 7:16 PM

    The student with out side interest is always the better person. More adaptable and has less hangs up about self-importance and so on. I had to laugh at the student telling you how to run your business ,having never run any thing before.

    I when I first went to Soil Conservation, there were some guys doing the budding and grafting. I had thought ahead and had purchased a budding knife before I came home from Trinidad. The class in Trinidad had only been exposed to budding and grafting for a session of two hours. Mr. Terence Beddoe gave the demonstration of what we were supposed to do. The students didn’t get a chance to actually practice, the class being forty-three in number.. My first day at Soil, I realized that I had the technical knowledge but not the practical experience. For the first month I never told the fellows anything, hell ,I could not tell if they were fooling around or not. I would go home and practice ( those guys were really very good).The first tree I grafted I did for a friend in Supers St. Phillip. It was a success. It gave me some confidence to approach the guys with a new method of budding Avocado when the seedling was a day old. There was some discussions and the guys said that the proposed method would not work. A compromise was struck. They would continue doing it the their way (less than 10% of the grafted plants done their way were successful) and if there was no improvement it would be done my way.. It turned out that it was my way, when the guys approached me and said they would do it my way. I did one demonstration (there is a saying luck favors the bold) and told them to finish grafting the other plants. They wanted another demonstration, but I was not sure I could get the thing done again. Told them that I did it once and once it was going to be. All the plants were successfully grafted. I became very good at grafting and budding: even wrote an extension bulletin on the topic. Moral behind this, is know and acknowledge that you do not know. I realize straight off that I was up against real pros and that I had to gain their respect or else things wouldn’t work out

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  • de pedantic Dribbler

    Re blaming POTUS, it is really not that hard to understand why he gets blamed for these matters…fact is that he is very quick himself to throw blame around to deflect from his own colossal errors.

    Despite this desperate time this wise man has actually decided to STOP FUNDING the WHO until an investigation can be done on their mismanagement of the pandemic…..A legitimate question and investigation surely.

    … but a totally ridiculous and very dangerous act to withdraw funding at this time…. one can only hope that this does not apply to current funding – as every penny counts right now one expects – but to upcoming budget allotments.

    His actions are doubly ridiculous when seen against the backdrop of his angrily dismissing calls for an investigation of his admin’s mismanagement of the same pandemic… he called any House review another politically motivated hoax… he even dismissed the Inpsector General tasked to oversee disbursement of COVID funds.

    …YET WHAT DOES HE DO … he uses precious energy to start his investigation of another admins COVID bungling and cuts funds when they are needed most….. DISTRACTION..DISTRACTION…DISTRACTION.

    One can’t make this stuff up…this man will surely lead the world into the abyss…one perfect act, after another !

    Like

  • NOT GOING AWAY 2ND WAVE NOW HAPPENING

    2nd round of lockdowns start in China; US Senate committee investigates origin of the CCP virus

    Like

  • fortyacresandamule

    With the exception of South Africa, no other black independent country on the planet has developed an industrialised and diversified economy. And South Africa industrialisation was done during the minority-rule era.The overwhelmingly majority of sub-shara african countries economies are agrarian in their structure and are mainly geared toward commodity exports. Even though the continent is well-endowed with arable land and rivers, it still depends on basic food import to feed itself. Talk about a crying shame and contradiction. Now, if these independent countries can’t feed themselves, what hope is there for for the next economy phase of industrial manufacturing? Japan alone has more installed electrical power than all the 54 countries of africa combined. Go figure.This however, doesn’t stop the shameless leaders on the continent to live a life of opulence and extravagance even more than that of their counterparts in more wealthy countries.

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  • Thanks fortyacres, somebody makes contact with the topic matter.

    From secondary school we were thought island economies are open and subject to what the Vincents refer to as exogenous shocks. Like Singapore our leaders are to be challenged to chart a path in a competitive world to sustain a reasonable way of live.

    Are we educating and producing the kind of citizen where this type of leadership can emerge? Good mangers and leaders do not appear from magic.

    We have to try.

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  • Some essential workers have raised concerns over being stopped during the COVID-19 curfew by police officers in plainclothes and unmarked vehicles.

    A group of the workers, who asked not to be identified, contacted the NATION over what they said was a dangerous practice.
    One man, who lives in the north of the island, said he was on his way home two nights ago when he was stopped by officers.
    “One officer stood to the back of the car, and the other came to the window. He asked why I was outside and if I had a curfew pass, which I presented.
    But it could have been anybody in that vehicle,” he said. (Quote)

    This behaviour is illegal in most democratic countries. How would people know if a person in civilian clothes stopping them at nights are not robbers?
    We must return power to uniformed officers and let the tough guys with their American gangsterism go and flush their heads. This is an operational matter that the marginalised Commissioner must speak up on.
    If I were driving at night and a man in civilian clothes tried to stop me I will drive on. Where is the attorney general? Who speaks for law and order for the DLP? Where is the Solutions law and order spokesman? Where is the church?
    This is bullying and must stop.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Bob;

    Found this one on the GIS website this morning. It was probably done about a week or so ago. An update to include what they do re. tracking contacts of infected persons seems necessary. How they are monitoring possible community spread does not appear to have been touched in the video The upgrading of the format for reporting of the daily incidence of new cases might also be useful re keeping the public informed of the real status of spread or control of the disease..

    Like

  • @ lyallsmall April 15, 2020 8:16 AM

    I watched part of the video. He apparently does not address his lack of qualifications in the sciences. His role should be strictly as a public relation person. He has not got the back ground to talk about the epidemiological aspects of the affair. That should be left to the epidemiologists. If the reporters were trained in the appropriates sciences, he would be asked questions that he would not have a clue about. In this situation you want people who are versed in the relevant disciplines. I am not surprised by the turn of events.

    As an aside, Trump has frozen funding to the W.H.O. It will be interesting to observe the postings on his action. He has done what he has done in the interest of the American people..

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  • Trump blames WHO as being taken by the Chinese ah wonder who else was praising the Chinese

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/trump-coronavirus-china/index.html

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  • RE • robert lucas April 14, 2020 8:55 PM “Moral behind this, is know and acknowledge that you do not know.”

    Freedom tends to Speak about Principles and not Issues… Most people want to talk about their Data, Information and University people will speak of Knowledge.

    Remember, Data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not understanding, understanding is not wisdom”.
    That said APPLIED Information leads to Knowledge…
    APPLIED Knowledge Leads to Understanding…
    APPLIED Understanding Leads to Wisdom.

    Principles are Rooted in Understanding and Wisdom. Once you have Understanding and Wisdom everything becomes Clear.

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  • @ Freedom Crier April 15, 2020 10:31 AM

    A very profound post. Thanks.

    Like

  • fortyacresandamule

    @David. A few years ago a former central bank governor declared Barbados to be a developed country. And another politician declared Barbados to be the benchmark of black economic success. If those two declaration doesn’t make you cringe, I don’t what will. The main reasons why Bim, along with other caribbean nations and territories have become high-income economies are primarily because of their small population base, an overvalued currency, very intense high-end tourism industry, expensive real estate that cater to foreigners, and generally a more higher cost of living. All these have contributed to overinflate our GDP and hence our high GDP per capita. But It’s a facade. Peel back all those economic layers and you will see our foundation is very weak. We are just one disaster away from the poverty level of Haiti.

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  • @fortyacres

    Foreboding words for sure.

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  • fortyaceesandamule

    I used to get upset when white people question our intellectual endownment. But not anymore. Our behavior and actions as a people have lend credibility to the prejudice. Heck! If I was white, I would have drawn the same conclusion. Most of our economic base is subsistence . We produced nothing, own nothing, and cannot even feed ourselves. Militarily, we are weak. Third rate power. Nobody is afraid of us. When people don’t fear you, you get no respect.

    Most of us are conditioned to depend on the white race not just for our material success and comfort but also for spiritual guidance. No wonder most black people will NEVER abandon the WHITE jesus narrative.

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  • @ Forty

    Well said. You should be appointed to the CoVid-economic council. The central bank official you speak of is Marion Williams. I also appeared with her on a BBC Caribbean Service programme when she said the 2007/8 banking crisis would not affect Barbados. She did not put forward any reasoned argument why not because there was (is) none..
    I have also seen people using the methodically flawed Human Development Index (it is based on figures provided by government officials) as further evidence of how well Barbados is doing.
    We all want Barbados to do well and be a model developing nation, but some of us are not prepared to fabricate arguments to support that ambition.

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  • @ Robert Lucas

    CNN is reporting that the US government is looking at the idea that the coronavirus came out of a Chinese lab. Remember when I said that could not be ruled out. Now at the highest level the Yanks are treating that seriously.
    No doubt the Chinese are also alleging it came out of a US lab. Always question official propaganda.

    Like

  • The Barbados High Commission (UK) is currently compiling a list of Barbadian nationals who may be stranded or otherwise experiencing hardships because of COVID19. They currently have names and situations of persons who have contacted them. Although the Office is closed staff are still working remotely. Further information is available on 📞📞 +44 207 299 7150

    Like

  • How many times will you post the same comment on this blog? It is boring move on. This applies to all commenters.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Fortyaceesandamule April 16, 2020 12:38 AM
    “Most of us are conditioned to depend on the white race not just for our material success and comfort but also for spiritual guidance. No wonder most black people will NEVER abandon the WHITE jesus narrative.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    You said it, forty acres!!

    Blacks will continue to wallow at the bottom of the socio-economic barrel as long as they continue to see themselves as the white man’s burden with a white Jesus as their saviour.

    Even the Indians and Chinese are getting in on the act pitying the blacks while making mock sport at the African fools.

    Unless the black race stop ‘whoring’ after other people’s gods especially those of capitalist consumerism (including giving Jesus greenbacks) they will always remain at the bottom of the totem pole continuing to be the everlasting hewers of wood and drawers of water to other groups of humankind.

    If only blacks can learn to love themselves as they were created and believe in their natural abilities to survive in any situation of challenges and difficulties then the black race can find the torchlight to their own salvation; not some European invented scapegoat called Jesus.

    “The Black skin is not a badge of shame, but rather a glorious symbol of national greatness.” ~ Marcus Garvey

    Liked by 1 person

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ Miller at 8 :29 AM

    I concur that we should use these days of enforced contemplation to redefine our goals and put aside other people’s goalsl…….spiritual,intellectual and physical.
    We should begin by distancing ourselves from the worn out cliches and mantras. We are into new territory now.We are in a strange land. It is now time for new songs and new works.

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  • de pedantic Dribbler

    @David, u gave me my morning chuckle with: “How many times will you post the same comment on this blog? …”

    … Bro, this so called novel coronavirus has lost its novelty already so other than new figures on positives test and deaths or some ‘new’ but old action by some leader we really will be on a loop of ‘repeat n recap/I told u so’ for a while…just saying :-).. well until we newly discover exactly how the Chinese unleashed this bio-hazard into society !

    So in the recap mode here is this lil puzzle of words.

    Why did both the WHO and the WH so flagrantly politically downplay this virus … the experienced grownups had modelled these things for years and had experienced SARS and other respiratory threats so why allow their leader to make remarks that make absolutely NO SENSE in real terms…

    On Feb. 2, POTUS said: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.” after he used an executive order banning anyone who has been in China in the previous 14 days….. And 2 days later WHO’s Tedros said: “We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

    ABSURD both of them.

    If Barack Obama had stood before an interviewer and made that remark … after being told by his advisers and intel folks since early January about the Wuhan crisis and being aware of the travel flow in and out of China, then I would say he was absolutely being ridiculously disingenuous (lying basically) . How can you shut that down on Feb 2 when hundreds of thousands of people have already flown out of China since Dec 31st!

    And how do you maintain a generic stance of not restricting travel in the face of a clearly rapidly growing person to person respiratory illness.

    We are surely considered to be just like Geppetto’s mindless dolls to them all!

    Liked by 1 person

  • Bob,

    There is a lot about the conclusions of this research paper that rings true. The conclusions therefrom will be staggering, especially where the US Science authorities, with some notable exceptions, have held fast to operationalising control methodologies that would have been far less important than prioritizing near N95 quality of masks for universal general public use, including fabric masks with simple exchangeable paper towel filters.

    If there is indeed significant aerosol spread the game has changed. If corpses are infectious (as one current paper is proposing) similarly. The now universal guidance of a 6 ft distance between people in social distances, becomes moot.

    It was clear long ago that there had to be other methods of transmission than the simple ones bruited by the professional epidemiologists around the world. Indoor ventilation systems, including on cruise ships and factories and small elder care homes could then be seen as major contributors to the spread.

    In Barbados, along with tracking and prioritizing testing, checking and investigation of the ventilation of the official quarantine facilities and even the homes where several people would have been curfewed for the last month or so, would now become urgent to-dos.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Bob

    Here’s another article that is relevant to some of the discussion on BU

    https://scitechdaily.com/evidence-of-stray-dogs-as-possible-origin-of-covid-19-pandemic/

    Some quite esoteric genetic sleuthing suggests that Covid-19’s origin was several decades ago and not in a recent Virology lab althought it might have escaped from such a lab.

    Like

  • Bob;

    Let me try to explain some of my thinking re. some of the above posts.

    The use of the universal 6 ft separation tool as a major method for reducing the rate of spread of the epidemic becomes suspect if it is proven that droplet spread is very much secondary to aerosol spread. Many lives would have been lost around the world if this is indeed so. The top epidemiologists who facilitated the adoption of the 6 ft rule would have done a disservice to the world in this whole affair, especially when data existed to indicate from long ago that Covid-19 could possibly be spread in aerosols from sneezing. The article I posted above gives some examples but there are many others in the literature on SARS 1 as well as MERS and Ebola that suggested the same mechanism. Indeed the Ebola example is familiar to our Czar. Instead, the global protocols for stopping spread all ignore that feature of most coronaviruses that have been found to have caused major epidemics if not pandemics.

    Barbados is a small country with a relatively small number of cases, so far. It is not too late to revise our protocols to take into account that the 6ft rule might not be working as we would have expected given the advice from the gurus re. pandemic epidemiology.

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  • @yallsmall

    Keep it up, want to turn this into a separate blog later.

    Like

  • de pedantic Dribbler

    Yes David yo should.re separate blog…. we are now into another phase and already your Caswell blog is over 1,000… and yet there is much more chatter to be made 🙂 !

    BTW the Czar report I see on social media starts with ‘A Grim Read’ and speaks of over 100 deaths possible.

    Not sure if it’s grim because it’s in print or because we are finally afraid of losing our life as surely nothing in that report is ‘new’ to anyone who has been following the evolution/devolution of this pandemic the world over !

    Liked by 1 person

  • Thanks David!

    Those posts were an attempt to publicize what I think might be the most important misconception by the Epidemiological community as well as the Politicians in this whole global Pandemic situation.

    The most recent pandemics or near-pandemics in the world have been caused by coronaviruses. Reducing or eliminating the spread of these viruses require the use of very old techniques used with a mix of new ones. The science of Virology has modernized the tools that are used for designing protocols for control as well as make the visualization of the pathogens and their interaction with host cells whether human or non-human more apparent. The study of relevant aspects of the pathogen (eg Covid-19); the host (man); and how the pathogen spreads and infects the host (eg, if vectors are important and hoh so) as well as the determination of the environmental factors that assist in or detracts from the rate of spread.

    It has long been known that most Coronoviruses attacking humans are spread by droplets as well as aerosols. Droplets from coughs do not travel far under ordinary circumstances but aerosols produced by the rapid drying out of droplets could travel several times the 6 ft limit that has been determined for droplets.

    If it is true that Covid-19 spreads by aerosols it would require a significant reworking of the 6ft distancing rule and suggest that that rule might have inadvertently contributed to a significant proportion of the horrendous carnage that Covid-19 has caused around the world so far.

    The Czech authorities have had a relatively good outcome, so far, in their war against the spread of Covid-19. They appear to attribute this mainly to the universal use of Masks. The US has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to recommend the voluntary use of low quality masks. It is quite possible that the universal use of good quality masks by the total population might fill a large part of the void between the supression of aerosols and the 6ft space.

    There are many aspects of this area that could promote a good wide ranging BU discussion.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Pingback: COVID 19 Probe – Is 6″ far Enough to Dodge Aerosols? | Barbados Underground

  • The folks sentenced to six months for violating the curfew were lucky, in Kenya they could be six feet under.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/kenya-coronavirus-curfew-crackdown-death-toll/2020/04/15/740a8c4e-79be-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Sargeant

    Is this the same Kenya that our president has just opened special relations with? Can’t be.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Does the President of the UK continue with diplomatic relations with CHINA?

    #steuspe

    Like

  • @ fortyaceesandamule April 16, 2020 12:38 AM

    A spot-on contribution.

    However, remember that the Caribbean islands are not so much in trouble because the people there are black. I take the old Charles de Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu in his work “De l’esprit des loix”. Environmental conditions shape society, culture, law and human beings.

    Productivity in the Caribbean is low, not because blacks are lazy by nature, but because the climate, the heat and the high humidity are very much an impediment to physical labour. Or to put it another way: …just like skin color, low productivity is a result of environmental conditions. In the tropics, whites and Chinese work just as slowly as blacks, or – most likely – even slower.

    High technology does not work in the tropics in the long term because the machines rust and break down too quickly. Look at the plastic parts on cars. In the Caribbean, these parts literally crumble, while in the North they last 30 years.

    There are many studies that prove that the economic success of a country or region depends on the climate. If I remember correctly, an annual average temperature of 13 degrees is said to be optimal. Only a few regions reach this value (including parts of China, Korea, Japan, Central Europe and parts of North America).

    The solution to the problem, as you rightly said, is that we in the Caribbean have to develop solutions that are specific to the tropics. This should start with house building and stop with eating habits.

    Religion would also need a general overhaul. The “black history month” does not change the fact that the children at school learn nothing at all about the old African gods. In fact, they grow up with the narrative of the whites, which only assigns the victim role to the blacks. Accordingly, the children are conditioned and raised to be domestic servants.

    The best way to destroy this narrative would be for the government to hire white (!) teachers to teach the children African culture and deities. The children will not accept this knowledge from black teachers because they then consider it inferior. So we must use the old narrative to arrive at a new narrative.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ lyallsmall April 16, 2020 8:57 AM

    I am in agreement with your postings. I expressed my unease at the droplet theory alone. Some of the bloggers who have no training in the discipline, sought to suggest that what I was saying was dated and that I did not know what I was saying. Just by reading some of the points made by them, it was obvious to any one trained in the biological sciences that they did not have clue about what they were saying
    There is only one bright spot on the horizon: the present criteria for the models are not exact and therefore since a lot of ecological factors for the transmission are unknown, there is room hopefully for a decrease in fatalities. The USA figure looks like it is going to be less than100,000.This tends to suggest that the models are not correct.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Dr. Lucas

    As advised please focus on the constructive engagements although from time to time some will disagree due to ignorance or playing ou.

    Like

  • @ Greene
    @TLSN

    I have just been clapping for the NHS.

    Like

  • @ Hal April 16, 2020 3:22 PM

    There are still long lines at Popular super markets. Apparently seventy-five customers are allowed into the supermarket but the supermarket is doing as I described when I went for my strolls. When five people exit the super market, one would expect five in the line would be allowed inside. Apparently they are waiting until all seventy-five have finished shopping, before allowing seventy-five new persons inside. This is causing the long lines. It is just as I described down by the fish market with Saving Plus a couple of weeks ago, when I was waiting (only about person were waiting) Twenty-five were allowed inside. When two exited, two from the waiting line were not allowed inside. The doors were closed. What we have here is a set of persons who are to put it mildly asses

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  • Correction : only about four persons were waiting.

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  • @R Lucas
    When five people exit the super market, one would expect five in the line would be allowed inside. Apparently they are waiting until all seventy-five have finished shopping, before allowing seventy-five new persons inside.
    ++++++++++++++++++
    Please tell me you are joking

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  • Dr. Lucas is mistaken.

    >

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ David April 16, 2020 5:15 PM

    Spooners’ Hill . According to my brother.

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  • @ Tron:

    Your post @ 1:21 is one of the best I have read. For a very intelligent and well read man, you do talk some gibberish at times though. hahaha.

    Liked by 1 person

  • fortyaceesandamule

    @Miller. Right on my brother. Most of our people are in a deep slumber. Alive, but dead. At my age, I have given up all hope of ever seeing a true model of black economic prosperity and success.

    @Tron. Environmental theory on economic development is valid indeed. Economists like Sachs and Krugman have weighed in on the subject.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @lyallsmall April 17, 2020 3:46 PM

    Wait and see.

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  • fortyaceesandamuleApril 16, 2020 11:24 PM

    @Miller. Right on my brother. Most of our people are in a deep slumber. Alive, but dead. At my age, I have given up all hope of ever seeing a true model of black economic prosperity and success.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    I would call it a drunken stupor.

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  • Bob;

    Yes! Early days yet

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  • @lyallsmall

    At what point on the curve are we?

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  • de pedantic Dribbler

    Ok science dude @Lyall, no new tests in 2 days and my first question was …how many tests were done… 65, I discovered. That’s encouragingly impressive…. for a nation that was trending at around 10% of positives to test subjects that’s actually quite outstanding…

    So my next question, was that sample population selected as those tested before were? Somewhat rhetorical as I have to presume they followed good sample/science protocols and they were.

    And then we move on to, so is this indicative that we really had limited or no ‘community spread’… and to reinforce that have we done all geo tracing for those missing folks who came into the island recently?

    And then finally so if this is validated by no new or very few positives over coming days does that mean we will be TESTNG every visitor to island when things open up…assuming no new anti-viral/vaccine!

    Like

  • We need community spread if a vaccine is long in coming anyway, it has to be controlled?

    Like

  • David;

    Re. your 5:04 pm query

    The epidemic was trending downwards since 31st march. The “solutions” graph doesn’t show this clearly as they are graphing the cumulative increases with time. If one looks instead at the changes in the daily total cases it is clear that there are 3 distinct peaks on 20th march, 28th march and then 31st march, which was coincidentally the start of the mandatory quarantine for arrivals. Thereafter, the daily cases consistently trend downwards until the present day. The 3 peaks may well be reflective of the imported cases and early contacts with them. In any case, log transformations of the daily data better visualizes that there is no significant logarithmic changes from 31st march and no exponential increases in the daily incidence and hence no community spread. The two days of no cases may be the visualization of the beginning of the control of the disease. I have graphs in jpg format that I could send you to add to this post. Please let me know the address to send them to.

    dpD
    It would appear that the sample population was essentially contacts only, which introduces other problems. But the Czar might have included other hosts. I dunno, but you should ask the Czar along with your other questions that follow above.

    The parameters of the GIS/Czar data needs to be fully explained.

    Liked by 1 person

  • David;

    Re. your 6:16 pm post. Trust me, we don’t need community spread. If we are so lucky as to have captured all the instances of possible community spread from the 3 early peaks seen in the data we should get the Vaccines / Medicines from the US or Cuba or Jamaica. In any case the virus would have disappeared and we should maintain the quarantines at the ports as long as necessary.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @llyalsmall

    Click on top of page under Confidential Message and you will find BU email address.

    Like

  • David;

    I sent the graphs to you last night by email just after midnight. Grateful if you would incorporate them into my 11:57 pm post last night at your earliest convenience.

    Tron;

    I was looking through some of the other BU blogs around midnight and saw that you have been consistently suggesting that the measures instituted by Government is bearing fruit and that control of Covid-19 is possibly near at hand. I too think that the graphs show that control might be imminent. If it is so Government must continue the measures already taken with a view to easing up a bit at the end of May while developing strategies and obtaining materials for; random testing of the population; strategic surveillance around the Island of populations that have been shown in the US etc. as being very susceptible to rapid spread of the virus; reopening the schools as soon as feasible; getting the tourism engine back on track using, inter-alia, messaging on our demonstrable covid-19 status as compared with other global destinations..

    I think that it is possible, perhaps even likely, that our covid-19 deaths might eventually turn out to be very much lower than the 100 minimum cases suggested by the Czar but i’m not betting on it yet.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Lyall

    Posted on the 6’ blog.

    Liked by 1 person

  • dpD you said

    “…. And then finally so if this is validated by no new or very few positives over coming days does that mean we will be TESTNG every visitor to island when things open up…assuming no new anti-viral/vaccine! ….”

    No! use random surveillance and testing of the local population allied with similar, but targeted, testing of all visitors showing Covid-19 symptoms; mandatory 14 day official quarantines of any positive testing visitors. Use a slogan like (if scientifically verified) “Barbados has been verified free of Covid-19. help us keep it so”… If we can show that we’ve actually and demonstrably controlled Covid-19, that fact could be used to assure potential visitors that they need not fear coming here.

    Like

  • @lyall
    Your graph looks good and demonstrates the leveling-off (effectiveness of government effort). I believe there are some minor edits that can be made to make your message stronger

    Liked by 1 person

  • TheOGazerts

    Sorry about the tone of my response to you on the other blog. I had intended to send 2 different graphs for david to post but instead sent 2 of the same graphs. I just sent David a copy of the graph which I inadvertently and mistakenly sent last night.

    Yes, there are many changes I could make to make the message stronger. When I get the time I will modify the Graphs to make them clearer.

    Sorry again

    Liked by 1 person

  • @lyallsmall April 18, 2020 8:30 AM

    “getting the tourism engine back on track using, inter-alia, messaging on our demonstrable covid-19 status as compared with other global destinations.”

    Wishful thinking. Even if Barbados gets its tourism back on track locally, do you really expect people to travel, bearing in mind that millions of persons would have out of work and would have used up what little savings their had to tide them over the rough months? The below extract should disabuse you of hopeful views. Remember, most of the tourists are from the UK.

    Peter Walker Political correspondent . The Guardian, UK.
    @peterwalker99
    Fri 17 Apr 2020 16.53 BST Last modified on Fri 17 Apr 2020 23.10 BST

    Travel firms angry over Grant Shapps’ ‘no summer holiday’ comment

    UK transport minister casts doubt on rapid lifting of Covid-19 travel restrictions

    The government has in effect warned Britons against planning a summer holiday this year, whether in the UK or abroad, prompting an angry reaction from the travel industry, which is warning that many firms in the sector could collapse.

    The response from Abta, the UK’s trade association for holiday operators and travel agents, came after Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, cast doubt on a sufficiently rapid lifting of social distancing or travel restrictions imposed due to Covid-19.

    “I won’t be booking a summer holiday at this point. Let’s put it that way,” Shapps told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme when asked if people should think about booking a break in the coming months.

    “Clearly people will want to see what the trajectory of this disease is in the next few weeks,” he said. “We’ve just started to see a flattening of that tragic curve which shows the deaths each day, where they’re bubbling around at the same level, and the number of people going into intensive care, and the rest of it. But we’re not seeing the declines yet.”

    Abta, which has warned of a mass collapse of travel companies due to the coronavirus pandemic, condemned Shapps’ advice.

    “It was a thoughtless comment and not based on any facts about what we know today about the future of the pandemic, but it shows complete disregard for the UK travel industry, the hundreds of thousands of people it employs and the struggle it is facing in this current crisis,” it said in a statement.

    “It would be better if the government focused on taking the necessary steps to support the sector rather than undermining confidence in it.”

    However, Shapps received apparent support from Downing Street, with Boris Johnson’s spokesman noting that travel within the UK for holidays was still not allowed, while the Foreign Office had warned against all but essential overseas trips.

    “While we are making progress in the fight against coronavirus, we are not able to say with certainty the point at which the social distancing measures can be relaxed,” he said. “As of today it is a fact that both the guidelines and the official Foreign Office advice do not allow for people going on holidays.”
    Asked about the threat to the sector, Shapps told the BBC he could not offer travel firms further guidance as to when restrictions could change, as that was a matter for scientific advice. The impact of the pandemic would reshape many industries, including travel and tourism, he predicted.

    “I can’t sugarcoat this for you,” Shapps said. “The government has gone to extraordinary lengths to come up with all manner of schemes to do what is, in terms of global responses, one of the most comprehensive [business support] packages.

    “But we know that we won’t be able to save every single business in every single circumstance. It would be wrong for me to sit here and tell you that there will be no changes as a result of this.”

    Liked by 1 person

  • We can all agree that tourist industry will be hard hit.

    Tourism also carries the danger that when we think the danger is past then one new infected tourist takes us back to square one.

    I would like to be a fly on the wall in the war-rooms of this administration. I suspect that tourism, right now is playing a distant second fiddle to this coronavirus problem.

    When this thing is firmly under control then they have to revise the tourism plan…

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ TheOGazerts April 18, 2020 11:10 AM

    These pandemics come in waves of infection. This is the first wave. There will be a second wave and even a third wave. Else where on the Blog, I referred to the Asian and Hong Kong pandemics of 1957-8 and 1967-8. Both had two -three waves of infections. Similarly the 1918-1919 pandemic had a least two waves :one in 1918 and the other in 1919. It is therefore premature to talk about getting the tourism industry back up. People just aren’t going to travel by air or ship any time soon. Aircraft and ships are ideal for the spread of the disease. As a matter of fact, one of the big cruise lines is being sued for not being able to adequately prevent passengers from being infected. Without government aid, the air lines and cruise line businesses most likely will fail. I personally think that they should be allowed to fail. Tax payers’ money should not be used to bail out them.

    Liked by 2 people

  • @ Robert

    A book I have not read is Deadliest Enemy by Michael T. Osterholm, a history of pandemics. The reviews are very good. What is of interest is that he suggests that the H1 N1 flue also came out of a laboratory, this time a Soviet laboratory..

    Liked by 2 people

  • From all accounts it appears that the lab in Wuhan wasn’t the only facility having problems handling sensitive material, the CDC was also plagued with the same issue causing a delay in the production of test kits.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/2020/04/18/fd7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html

    Liked by 2 people

  • @ Hal April 18, 2020 11:59 AM

    I haven’t read the book. I was about to discount the Russian angle because of the civil war( there were two uprisings, the second of which( the October revolution) was fomented by Russian Jews which resulted in the genocide of non-Jewish Russians, a fact that a lot of people do not want to remember and subsequent disorder that prevailed at that time. I was forced to reconsider since the Germans invented the process of nitrogen fixation by Fritz Haber who also came up with the idea of using phosgene gas in chemical warfare. I would still discount it because at that time very little was known about viruses. As a matter of fact, attributing diseases to viruses had only been demonstrated after the turn of the century. Nothing was known about the molecular biology(MB) of viruses and a knowledge of MB would have to have been known to tweak the genomic structure of viruses, DNA/RNA was not even known. The electron microscope had not yet been invented which would have led to the study of the structure of viruses. The H1 Ni was the the virus which caused the pandemic of 1918-1919. Michael T. Osterholm is trained in infective diseases and should know better than to spin the suggestion. I know it is popular these days to blame the Russians for everything. Maybe it is a ploy to sell more copies of the book. The reviewer should have mentioned the flaw: that is if the reviewer is trained in the sciences.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ Sargeant April 18, 2020 12:23 PM

    Cutting corners trying to get the kit out as fast as possible. This isn’t the first time CDC has blundered. Did it with MRSA infections in health facilities. Some heads will roll. Trump was actually blamed for the mess up.

    Like

  • GREAT NEWS

    “Barbados’ youngest COVID-19 patient and her father were released from isolation today after receiving two consecutive negative test results for the viral illness.

    The seven-year-old girl and her parent were among 35 people who tested negative yesterday as the number of tests done since February 11 reached the 1000 mark.

    For the third consecutive day, no-one tested positive for COVID-19.

    Since March 16 when the first two cases were identified, 75 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and 17 have recovered. Five Barbadians have died and 53 remain in isolation”

    Liked by 2 people

  • If we still have no new infections for the next 14 days, the traitorous opposition must apologize for the serious false accusations against our government.

    The DPP must now finally give up her partisanship and crack down hard on the opposition. Those who unjustifiably stir up panic in this serious situation must be punished, even if they have the same party membership. If there is no investigation, the Attorney General should examine the offence of obstruction of justice.

    Dale Marshall to work!

    Like

  • @Tron

    Dale Marshall to work!
    +++
    Good luck!

    Like

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