White Oak and External Creditors: Flirting with Hobson’s Choice

 

The blogmaster read the following article over night while perusing the financial newsfeed.

Patriotic Barbadians that understand these matters are obviously concerned negotiations have stalled with external creditors. We have to go with communications being dropped in the public space.

Commonsense support that it is not unusual creditors will push back against having to take a haircut. Barbadians wish the White Oak negotiating team well, as a country we have a lot riding on the best outcome.

Both sides agree the country of 300,000 people needs to cut debt levels. Yet talks have soured in recent weeks over how much of the burden should be borne by creditors in the form of deep haircuts or other terms. For its part, the government said it isn’t willing to negotiate targets established when it took a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year – extracted from the Bloomberg report

Both sides seem to agree a restructure of the debt is necessary given the high debt burden and current state of the economy. What is at dispute is the amount creditors are being asked to leave on the table. Creditors have to protect their interest and the government having opted to SD will have to make it count given the damage to country’s credit rating and how it will be perceived by lenders.

However the foreign creditors will know that they have an overlapping interest with the government of Barbados. If the economy that is precariously perched on the economic cliff continues were to tank all that will be left is Hobson’s choice.

Time to close the deal!


Barbados Clashes With Creditors in Talks to Cut Greece-Like Debt

 

Barbados’ prime minister is butting heads with creditors over how to cut one of the world’s largest sovereign debt loads, creating a sticking point in the year-long negotiations to restructure the Caribbean nation’s defaulted dollar bonds.

Talks with foreign creditors have dragged on since last June, when Prime Minister Mia Mottley said she would restructure the island’s “unsustainably high” debt burden. While both sides said they are open to continued negotiation, they appear far from consensus.

A committee of creditors, who hold 55% of outstanding dollar debt, said Wednesday that they plan to unanimously reject a government proposal to exchange defaulted bonds for new debt unless the two sides negotiate together.

“The committee strongly believes that the launch of a unilateral exchange offer by the government of Barbados without the support of the committee will be highly detrimental to the country’s economic stability,” they said in a statement.

Both sides agree the country of 300,000 people needs to cut debt levels. Yet talks have soured in recent weeks over how much of the burden should be borne by creditors in the form of deep haircuts or other terms. For its part, the government said it isn’t willing to negotiate targets established when it took a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year.

No Compromise

At that time, the government estimated debt had ballooned to about 175% of gross domestic product, meaning it owed around $9 billion. That would have made it one of the world’s most-indebted countries, trailing only a handful of others, including Greece, according to IMF figures. Mottley said she “will not compromise” on the goal of bringing that ratio down to 60% by 2033.

“We leave it to creditors to decide whether this is achieved through a par deal with long tenors and low interest rates, or face value haircuts with shorter tenors and higher interest rates. But the targets must be met in full,” she said in a written response to questions.

Mottley inherited a troubled $5 billion economy when she took office last May. The island known for its white sand beaches had been struggling for years amid competition from less-pricey Caribbean tourism destinations, crumbling infrastructure, and a currency that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar. She quickly struck a $290 million deal with the IMF and restructured about $6 billion in local currency debt.

The government owes around $700 million in dollar bonds, plus bank loans and other foreign debts, according to a spreadsheet posted to a website for creditors in January. Bonds maturing in 2035 have rarely traded in recent months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The creditors committee said it put forth an offer two weeks ago “based on terms that aim to support the government’s debt and reform objectives while creating restructured instruments with broad market acceptance.” The committee said it is made up of long-term investors, regional central banks, individual bondholders and financial institutions and represented by advisers Newstate Partners and Washington-based law firm Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP.

The creditors contend that their offer would have allowed the government to reach its debt target a year later than it wants, according to people familiar with the committee’s negotiations. The committee’s position is that the government’s estimates fail to take into account certain revenue variables and that it is trying force severe restructuring terms on creditors to meet its debt targets, said the people, who were not authorized to discuss the negotiations.

White Oak Advisory, which is representing the government in negotiations, said the creditors’ offer “fails to meet IMF test for debt sustainability, and by quite some margin,” according to an email statement. “It is disappointing that Barbados continues to be faced with this kind of position after almost a year of negotiations.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/barbados-clashes-with-creditors-in-talks-to-cut-greece-like-debt

374 comments

  • Hal i as you know support no party. I am quick to say I help vote Thompson in and Stewart out. What I have a problem with is looking at issues in a vacuum. To say let’s discuss the debt restructuring and then deflect the next obvious point which is life after the restructuring says much about some on this blog.

    Every man is entitled to his view, however attempting to deflect others is not my idea of impartial but rather blatant bias.

    Liked by 1 person

  • I suggested the Oval itself should be developed, along with the stadia, a cinema, cricket museum, restaurants, cafes, a piazza and facility for weekend concerts.
    More hogwash!!! You are a good copy and paste specialist too sans any context.(Quote)

    @ Enuff
    The original letter was published in the Nation in 2007. Research it. You are a sad man (I presume you are a man or a poor imitation of a man). Remind me, are you a doctor, lawyer, politician or senior civil servant. Whoever you are you need psychiatric help.

    Like

  • John A i did not hear or see you on this blog prior to May 2018.Where you now arise from, along with Barbados 2019? Looking at both your comments i notice all negative comments against anything this government does never a good word.Why is that?Where was all this expert advice between 2008 and 2018?This government took up tbe country in a crisis and had to stabalize it first and foremost, which in my view it has done and the creditors now advised by Dr Worrell and others will be paid under agreed terms so chill out.It seems most of you all want Barbados to rush into an agreement detrimental to the people of Barbados.This will not happen.

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  • Hal i read once that the English language has enough words in it that one can converse without being abusive, derogatory or attempting to evade discussion on any relevant issue that is created through the use of the said language.

    I encourage those who fail to use it, to stop and consider why they don’t, but default to alternate approaches such as dismissal and party politics. I will debate anyone willing to reason and accept facts, those that refuse to do this but stick to a line for other reasons, make discussion on a particular issue pointless.

    I am of course not pointing my finger at anyone just making a statement.

    Like

  • Lorenzo i came across this blog out of a discussion with Walter Blackman and as a result found some on it worthy of interaction with.

    Are you insinuating that like others, I have a dark agenda riddled with political bias and the wish to see the party fail? Alas let me refer you to my comment above where I said ” I voted Thompson in and help vote Stewart out.”

    You see unlike some I discuss issues free of political loyalty. I deal only with the issues and facts and in my view that is what free discussion means. Anything or anyone who attempts to direct a discussion otherwise or sensor it, is in fact either incapable of factual discussion on the issue or blinded by party loyalty.

    I am of course not suggesting you fall into either of these categories mind you!

    Liked by 1 person

  • David June 1, 2019 8:00 AM

    If the graphic on this blog does not force Barbadians to reflect nothing will.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    And by that I hope you mean ALL BAJANS and not just those of darker hue and emptier pockets!

    Like

  • Donna for the record I am a bajan and will live here to I die! My only wish is for us to take off the party blinkers and expand our thoughts using the free education Mr Barrow gave us.

    So if anybody pelting rocks I got my passport to prove it! LOL

    Like

  • Lorenzo June 1, 2019 10:19 AM

    John A i did not hear or see you on this blog prior to May 2018.Where you now arise from, along with Barbados 2019? Looking at both your comments i notice all negative comments against anything this government does never a good word.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    But you see, I WAS on the blog prior to May 2018 and very harshly criticized the Democratic Labour Party administration. I even helped to vote them out. And yet when I criticized this BLP administration you pursued and attacked me, labelling me as a disgruntled Dem with all negative comments against anything this government does. You said you had been around politics for too long to be fooled by the likes of me. That was until I had my dust up with Piece as to the veracity of certain of his claims. You were proven to be wrong about me. It was clear then that i was after the truth and nothing but the truth regardless of party.

    Bottom line is that you WILL NEVER make ANY negative comments about ANYTHING this government does. And that pins a label on you.

    Liked by 1 person

  • ….”crazy like the Salemite Abigail.”

    ya should TAKE NOTE:

    that it’s not CRAZY ME…being exposed ..FOR THE WHOLE WORLD TO SEE…

    …you useless little little house negros who have nothing good to offer ya own people..should all BE GASSED..

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  • Lorenzo they are some things this government did that I approved of. Going to the IMF was one. Had the last MOF had any backbone he would of gone earlier and the medicine today would not be so bitter. The stop put to the printing of money I also support. I support the debt restructuring but do not approve what we are paying White Oak. This is excessive In light of what was paid to Citibank when they did the same job for Jamaica and charged $3 million us. I am not in favour of trying to strong arm the foreign creditors when all that separates the settlement seems to be pushing forward our goal by one year.

    I also don’t approve of the fact that we have not paid the foreign creditors a cent in 12 months and have gone on to tell them don’t look for a cent for a further 12, but expect them to come to the discussion with smiles on their face. It is my view W/O should of paid the foreign creditors over the last year even a small Amount and in so doing shown good faith. After all they were paying themselves $85000 USD a month over the same period were they not?

    Finally I encourage those that don’t understand the fall out after a default and refuse to discuss it, to research what happened to Argentina when a government tried to muscle foreign creditors. You can search the below for information. Having said that one could argue they went about it as hot headed South Americans , but never the less they paid a heavy price.

    ” Argentina after they defaulted.”

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hal

    You don’t worry about what I am, apart from someone who spots your BS from a mile.

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  • BARBADOS PROSPERITY STARTS WITH THE INDIVIDUAL. IF YOU DESIRE CHANGE BETHE CHANGE, DREAM BIG, WORK HARD, CREATE WEALTH! THE RESULT ‘EVERYONE BENEFITS’. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS AND WEALTH…

    NO, THE RICH DON’T GET RICH AT THE EXPENSE OF THE POOR

    “Most rich people do not become rich because they take from the poor, but because they create a great benefit for others.”

    Many people believe that the rich only become rich at the expense of others. This world view is also called zero-sum thinking because its adherents regard economic life as a zero-sum game, just like tennis, where one player has to lose for the other to win. In his poem “Alfabet,” the German poet Bertolt Brecht formulated this zero-sum mindset as follows:
    “Said the poor man with a twitch:

    Were I not poor, you wouldn’t be rich.”

    Most rich people do not become rich because they take from the poor, but because they create a great benefit for others. Jack Ma is the richest man in China, with a fortune of $34.6 billion. He became so rich because he founded Alibaba and other successful companies that met the needs of hundreds of millions of his fellow citizens.

    THE RICH CREATE BENEFITS FOR SOCIETY AS A WHOLE

    ZERO-SUM THINKING HARMS INDIVIDUALS AND IS BAD FOR SOCIETY AS A WHOLE.

    Zero-sum thinking is not only misguided, it has a negative impact on every single zero-sum believer and on society as a whole. Psychologists have discovered that zero-sum thinking is a major source of envy. Anyone who believes that the only way to become rich is at the expense of others will naturally envy and begrudge the rich their wealth. This zero-sum mindset is also the basis of the socialist theories that have brought so much suffering to humanity over the past hundred years or so. Bertolt Brecht, the author of the poem quoted at the beginning, was not just a poet, he was also a communist who revered Josef Stalin.

    Anyone who believes that it is only possible to become rich at the expense of others has created a barrier to their own success. Honest people who believe that the rich are all crooks, will never strive to become rich themselves. Zero-sum beliefs function as an unconscious psychological barrier against wealth. And people with no moral scruples who think in zero-sum terms can even find themselves drawn to a life of crime. Across the world, prisons are full of people who thought they could only get rich at the expense of others.

    The facts tell a completely different story, as the example of China demonstrates: The biggest economic success story in human history began with the realization that, rather than harming society, everyone benefits when people become rich or even super-rich as entrepreneurs. It’s not only the small number of billionaires who have profited from China’s economic reforms, it’s also—more importantly—the hundreds of millions who were previously living in bitter poverty. WHEN CHINA REVERSES THE PROCESS BY PLACING MORE CONTROL AND RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR PEOPLE THE OPPOSITE WILL HAPPEN.

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  • BARBADOS SET FREE THE POWER OF FREE MARKET CAPITALISM.

    There is Free Marker Enterprise (Capitalism) and Crony- Capitalism.

    Free Enterprise for it to be Free should not be Controlled by Endless Burdensome Regulation brought about by Socialist/Communism, resulting in Cronyism. The Law in a Free Society is meant to used for the Protection of Person and Property—you cannot use the Law as a Tool for Force and Theft of Property and Labour, NO MATTER HOW GOOD THE INTENTION—this economic ideology of a “FAIR SHARE” of another’s labour is the foundation for Fascism, Nazism, Socialism, and Communism. Using government to “help” individuals is NOT liberalism, it is at one level or another—only and ALWAYS Collectivism.

    A Capitalist Society is a Just Society because all individuals are considered equal under the Law. Capitalism recognizes that it is just for a man to keep what he has earned and that it is unjust for a man, or group of men, to have the right to what other people have earned.

    Since all people must live independently under Free Market Capitalism, all of the material values that a person acquires must be earned. Thus, the expression of social justice under Capitalism is that what a man earns is directly proportional to what he produces, no progressive income taxes stifling his achievement for the sole fact the he did achieve. All other forms of government, such as the Welfare State, institutionalize injustice by legally expropriating the property of some men and giving it to others.

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  • @John A

    Have you been present at the negotiating table?

    How do you know what has transpired except for what the creditors have been leaking to the international press?

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  • David in the absence of information being shared I can only quote what White Oak said when responding to the FT article.

    ” The foreign creditors have not been paid for the last 12 months nor should they expect to be paid for the next 12″. Their words not mine.

    So you are asking people who you defaulted on and have not paid a cent to for 12 months, nor will they be paid for at least another 12, to come and negotiate in good faith and smiling faces. Any banker will tell you pay something monthly even if you can’t pay all till a loan can be renegotiated.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    Do you know if we are defaulting on the Chinese too, Stuart’s favourite piggy bank?

    Liked by 1 person

  • How can the creditors be paid if there is no final agreement? Tell us!

    How do you know White Oak is not responding publicly to a point of agreement re tenor. Tell us!

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  • And what’s so unusual about not paying debt holders for 24 months. This is a minor issue for a country which has always paid on time.

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  • Hal that is a good point but again we can only guest as no one has bothered to publish the loan amounts, due dates or annual payments. Yet we are asked to drink the Koolaid and hush!

    If we take white oaks comment literally they said that NO foreign creditors have been paid for the last 12 months, nor will they be paid for the next 12, so I would assume that no preferential lenders were picked out and quietly paid. Well at least I hope not as that would be another big issue God forbid.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    Bajans live in a fantasy world. It is cultural. Just look at Sri Lanka and see what the Chinese do when debtors default on loans. They are playing with fire.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Pachamama no quite the opposite it is a major issue because we are a country that always paid on time!

    If you had a record of paying late and missing payments the creditor would no be as surprised at you defaulting. If on the other hand you had a good credit rating by always paying , don’t you think your default would be seen as a bigger deal and hence cause your creditor to now move you on the “dodgy” client list?

    Sorry can’t agree with you there.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Zambia’s power company, ZESCO, is set to be among the first casualties of China’s takeover after defaulting on loan repayment, a report revealed.
    The report released by Africa Confidential – a United Kingdom (UK) based newsletter – titled: Bills, Bonds and even Bigger Debts, claims that Zambia leaders are in talks with China over a possible takeover of the country’s electricity company. The report also said that Zambia’s national broadcasting corporation, ZNBC, is already owned and run by China.
    The report states: “A major worry of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and United States (U.S.) is that China’s BRI strategy is first to encourage indebtedness, and then to take over strategic national assets when debtors default on repayments. The state electricity company ZESCO is already in talks about a takeover by a Chinese company. The state-owned TV and radio news channel, ZNBC, is already Chinese-owned. The long-term outcome could be effective Chinese ownership of the commanding heights of the economy and potentially the biggest loss of national sovereignty since independence.”
    Zambia is one of the African countries whose leaders were in China earlier this week for the China-Africa summit. Zambia President Edgar Lungu was reported to have gone back home after visiting a number of Chinese companies and after receiving a grant of $30 million for the Lusaka East Multi-facility Economic Zone electrification project.

    Zambia President Edgar Lungu with Chinese leader Xi Jinping after securing a grant of $30 million for the Lusaka East Multi-facility Economic Zone electrification project at the just-concluded Africa-China Forum.
    The Africa Confidential report also indicated that a number of projects in Zambia are financed by China, while the country’s debt profile rises in the last five years.
    The report states further: “Since President Edgar Lungu came to power, Zambia has signed off on, at least, $8 billion in Chinese project finance. Over $5 billion of this has not been added to the total, because Zambia insists the money has not been disbursed, and more large loans are in the pipeline. Yet the Finance Ministry does not have the capacity, insiders say, to police, let alone stem, all the spending. In some cases, the financial penalties for halting disbursement on projects would outweigh the savings. Donor governments have offered technical assistance to bring the project debt mountain under control but have been rebuffed.”
    Going by the report, analysts say Zambia may have been Africa’s first casualty in China’s suspicious trade deals and aids to countries on the continent.
    But, Zambia’s Minister for Energy, Mathew Nkhuwa, has rubbished the Africa Confidential report, saying the takeover of the country’s electricity company would not go through without being vetted by the cabinet. He further added that the company is a national asset with a massive valuation and cannot be sold.
    Mr Nkhuwa said: “There is no such decision by Cabinet. As you know ZESCO is such a huge company and anything to do with it will have to be decided by cabinet and I can confirm to you that there has not been anything decided on the future of ZESCO.”
    China has been considered a good partner by many African governments. However, there have been growing concerns over the increasing debt incurred by African leaders from the Chinese loans and treatment being meted out to Africans by the Chinese.
    In Kenya, revelations of racism at the China-funded standard gauge railway did not only shock many, but also uncovered a series issues that African leaders need to address.(Quote)

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hal yes what happened there is sad but it shows you the extent some will go to when their payment and capital is threatened. I mean in that case China didn’t entertain too much discussion for sure.

    Liked by 1 person

  • David you keep asking if I was there and I keep telling you the response that White Oak gave directly to the FT. They confirmed in Bajan terms ” not a blind cent get pay.”

    Now they also confirmed in the Bloomberg article and I again qoute. ” we are disappointed that settlement could not be reached as what they proposed would of extended the governments plan by a year.”

    So what you doing now, asking me not to believe the words spoken by the Same White Oak you defend?

    No sir I doing as you tell me and i listening intently to every word they say and I taking it as gospel too. Come David you can’t use an argument one time and then discredit the essence of the said argument.

    I mean you can, but….

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  • Hal you always keep records do you know what percentage of our total foreign debt effective December 2018 was held with China?

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  • @ John A

    Sorry. Ask Maxine McClean. You must remember that despite the rabbiting, Barbados is a very secretive society. Governments do not make information public. We live on a diet of waffle. Just read BU.
    If this helps, I know part of the agreements is that Chinese workers (all male) must work on the projects (that is a central part of the cost of the agreements) and they must be allowed to stay on in the host country. This is what they did in Grenada in 2007.
    The other thing that soon follows is prostitution by Chinese women. In the UK a lot of those who come in on student visas in fact work in nail bars, so-called traditional medicine clinics and massage parlours. This is the Chinese invisible empire.

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  • Abstract

    ””’This paper presents a continuous-time stochastic model to study the timing decision of strategic default of sovereign debt. The debtor country precommits to an investment plan, finances part of it with a foreign loan, and maximizes the present value (PV) of utility from an infinite stream of consumption. Default risk arises from uncertainty surrounding the evolution of GDP over time. As the debt ratio increases, it introduces an increasing drag on the growth of GDP and also increases the risk premium on the loans. At each moment the nation must decide whether to service the loan over the next period (infinitesimally small) or to default, thereby gaining the PV of the loan, but correspondingly suffering a default penalty, and forgoing the option to default in the future. This choice is cast as a first-passage problem: default occurs (if and) when the PV of consumption under default first exceeds the PV given continuance of debt service. The actual values of the debt ratio for several debt-ridden countries is found to be close to the theoretically derived critical level. This framework also enables the study of austerity programs, rescheduling and other policy alternatives.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222272248_A_Model_of_Strategic_Default_of_Sovereign_Debt
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    We are tired seeing the same article, here on BU, cited by the same person, about the cases particular to China and African countries.

    We are not persuaded that Barbados falls into that category.

    Every time it is posited, by the same person, nobody questions the nature of any of these underlying arrangements. But its sponsor seems highly motivated to make geo-political points about Red people. For they must be somehow worse than White people, in global dominance terms, at least..

    BTW, is the writer the only person here who has actually dealt with any of these sovereign debt matters. And if that is the case why is anybody else talking about things about which they know not.

    We trust that the above abstract from an academic journal mek sense to the ignorant.

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  • Vincent Codrington

    @ John
    @ Hal

    Thanks for expounding to the BU Household the new game into which we have fallen with eyes wide closed. So Pachamama is right. It is not business as usual. My only concern is that he does not fully understand the implications for the recovery of the Barbados economy. We need to put all the cards on the table.

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  • Yes and they supply everything Chinese they can in terms of steel etc to any construction project. I actually saw a small block machine here they brought In and I asked the project supervisor how many blocks can that thing make? He laughed and said they make sure it works 24 hours a day and never stops.

    Call me cynical but I believe the only reason China offered Africa help was because they knew they have great mineral wealth in areas that the said Chinese government need to ensure the constant expansion of their own economy. So don’t be surprised down the road if you don’t see China State on some of those African assets.

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  • @Vincent

    What makes you think all the cards are not on the table?

    What is not on the table is that the public is not privy to negotiations between the players.

    Until we know it is only speculation on our part.

    We have some here who do not know the size of the external portfolio when it is already public information.

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  • Daivd i convince you got select vision!

    We are not asking about the total debt we owe that is common knowledge. We are asking for a breakdown of it by lender. 2 total and completely different issues. Yes we got the total but how is it made up and by whom? Or is that too a state secret?

    I enjoy our discussions but Lord read our comments in totality.

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  • @ Lorenzo

    Unfortunately for you and others with BLP and DLP Agendas we will never sing on the same Choir.

    I don’t attempt to mislead fellow Bajans as I am not a Supporter of either BLP or DLP who are the Real reason why the Bankrupt Island is fucked up and a failure now in the hands of the IMF.

    I have also never stolen from the Taxpayers or Barbados Treasury.

    How many DLP and past and present BLP Ministers can truly say they have not?

    That is why the country is broke along with Piss Poor Management skills.

    Borrowing other people money is not a sign of success it is digging a bigger hole which the average suffering TAXPAYERS will have to deal with for a long time.

    Whatever DLP or BLP does do not affect me as I am blessed to be well educated and well paid as a Professional.

    However I will continue to speak out whenever I see INJUSTICE and make no apologies for doing so.

    I don’t have to kiss ass anywhere in Barbados.

    We are the unbiased individuals who have Barbados at heart and we tell it as it is without self gain or seeking crumbs off any Political Party table.

    Liked by 1 person

  • What difference does it make?

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  • Pachama i don’t think anyone is suggesting that China will come here and seize our diamond minds as settlement for default, as we have none. All that Hals point does is open the topic of ” life after default.” Thats all. I see no reason why we should not at this stage entertain such discussions as we are ourselves in a post default era. The discussions that need to follow in my view are these.

    LIFE IN A POST DEFAULT ERA

    LIFE AFTER FOREIGN DEBT SETTLEMENT AND THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

    Don’t fear the next chapter or try to steer it in a favourable direction, instead let’s share and ventilate the possible outcomes both positive and negative.

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  • Still waiting to be educated on the below:

    Plse explain the economics of cutting off the automatic stabiliser, not only will the income of consumers be reduced, but they will become more cautious and save more. Is this not true? Does fiscal contraction make a recession worse?
    If we have six more years of this stagnation – leading to falling taxation and a rising deficit – won’t government austerity make the situation worse? And, given that government has defaulted on its foreign debt, does that not rule out gilt sales, off loading the debt, to big financial institutions and shadow banks?
    Apart from the conventional macroeconomic remedies, won’t such a policy pose a threat to the social order? Is there a case for fiscal stimulus? Do you believe the prime minister is being badly advised?(Quote)

    Answers, plse; no more than two sentences.

    While you are at it, plse explain why the IMF jumped from backing fiscal expansion in 2009 to one of austerity in 2010. Was it based on a misreading of the runes? Can someone also explain the impact on growth of government cuts, what percentage of GDP?
    Can we cut out the politics and argue about the economics?
    Let me say again, in case I am misunderstood: government should have embarked on a massive programme of infrastructural development to stimulate the economy, by printing money.
    The only threat from that would have been one of liquidity and asset bubbles and that could be easily managed. The one macroeconomic lesson we have learned over the last 25 years is how to manage inflation. It would also spread the pain across generations.
    I suggested we should look at the policies of two previous Barbadian governments: the 1951 Adams administration (the Deep Water Harbour, a bit of advanced policy-making and the QEH), and the 1961 Barrow government (the move to the port, filling in the Constitution River (which on reflection was wrong, but at the time very forward-looking, the shrimp industry), which was spectacularly brilliant.
    Part of the problem is that this generation think they are brighter than previous generations. Nothing can be farther from the truth. Apart from the ABC highway, a bit of municipal vandalism, our political leaders are terrified of big projects. They are obsessed with tourism. There is a price to be paid.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Hal everything you have outlined there is true but capital intensive. So we back to the question no one wants to touch.

    “How will we be viewed by the international lender post their debt rescheduling?”

    The outcome of that will depend on not only if we are lent money, but also the rate and payment term we will be lent under.

    As I said before that is a discussion few want to have.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    There is an escape route, a forgiveness clause, if you like. If we had lots of natural resources and successful cross-border businesses then future lenders may see that as a positive.
    All we have are rundown, family owned, debt-ridden hotels (have you ever stayed in any? The worst hotel I have ever stayed in was Discovery and I have stayed in seaside hotels in the UK, in fact almost jointly bought one)).

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  • Vincent I agree with you totally as they are too many unanswered questions for any open minded thinker to offer their undying loyalty to the process.

    We could start by White Oak telling us on average how much of a haircut will the foreign creditors need to take, either in capital loss or interest rate, so as to meet their proposal and satisfy the IMF in terms of booked net outstanding foreign debt after the process is finish.

    Will they lose 10% or 20% of their capital? Will the average interest rate for them drop from 6% to 1%?

    Then again that could be a state secret too!

    Liked by 1 person

  • The ugly man from England seems to be asking some questions which, in just briefly looking at them, seem to veer miles away from the issue raised initially.

    That question related to the importance of non-payment for up to 24 months on sovereign debt. He cited the Chinese to suggest that a SD and nonpayment for 24 months means the end of the world for his paradise-home.

    Now that we have presented a conceptual framework, maybe the said same one the GOB maybe using, other questions non-directly related are raised.

    We feel no responsibility to answer his other mindless meanderings. It will always be impossible to make such a mind understand the simplest things.

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  • Vincent Codrington

    @ Pachamama at 2:23 PM

    Is that the model that informed the rush to credit default.? I am asking on behalf of all my colleagues in the Economic profession.
    Do you appreciate that there is a big difference between risks and uncertainty?
    The model is bare crap and assumes that periodic debt default would be a policy tool in reducing the debt ratio going forward. What creditor will accept debt restructuring under these conditions?

    Like

  • Hal yes as I said we have no diamond mines to sell. What is unreasonable also is for us to sit here and condemn the foreign creditors without have any idea what we are asking them to sacrifice.

    Is the white oak group asking them to say lose 20% on their investment? We need to understand you will not be able to push any offer down their throat as occurred with the local debt holders.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    You mention a haircut. I suspect the long negotiations are not about the interest rate or extending the repayment period. That is easy. It looks to me, and I do not know, as if the talks are about the actual capital. No serious lender will reduce the amount of capital when they can sell it on at a discount.
    If the talks were simply about the rate of interest and extending the repayment period, then it is incumbent on the Barbados government to ORDER White Oaks to reach an agreement within a given period, or remove them from the negotiations completely.

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    We do NOT know for sure. But based on what the GOB has done, thus far, we would not be surprised.

    In short, WE DO NOT KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY. Ours is a mere guess!

    Their BERT plan seems to rely on similar concepts, economic theories, financial calculations etc

    Like

  • Vincent

    We are at a loss to know how these determinations could be reached by you in the absence of the actual model, and based entirely on the abstract.

    That abstract was merely presented to prove a single point

    That point is that, in these matters, non-payment for 24 months would not make the sky fall in. That’s all!

    Like

  • Hal i glad you said it and not me!

    But yes those are the shots that now need to be called as hard as they will be. We also have to realise that the higher the foreseen risk by the buyer of the block debt, the lower the offer to purchase will be..

    Like

  • A Model of Strategic Default of Sovereign Debt
    Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 11(4):483-498 · December 1987 with 235 Reads
    DOI: 10.1016/S0165-1889(87)80002-7

    Cite this publication

    Nalin Kulatilaka

    26.19Boston University

    Alan Marcus

    27.63Boston College, USA

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222272248_A_Model_of_Strategic_Default_of_Sovereign_Debt

    Like

  • I repeat

    Plse explain the economics of cutting off the automatic stabiliser, not only will the income of consumers be reduced, but they will become more cautious and save more. Is this not true? Does fiscal contraction make a recession worse?
    If we have six more years of this stagnation – leading to falling taxation and a rising deficit – won’t government austerity make the situation worse? And, given that government has defaulted on its foreign debt, does that not rule out gilt sales, off loading the debt, to big financial institutions and shadow banks?
    Apart from the conventional macroeconomic remedies, won’t such a policy pose a threat to the social order? Is there a case for fiscal stimulus? Do you believe the prime minister is being badly advised?(Quote)

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Vincent

    You are aware the government is being advised by members who f your profession?

    @Pacha

    You have more scholarly articulated the crux of the matter. One cannot extrapolate from a basis of speculation.

    Like

  • David

    Thanks

    We can’t understand why people would want to get here and give this government such a hard time, given all the circumstances they inherited. Jesus Christ man!

    Even when you show them that they talking shiiiite, about matters they know not of, they bring up other issues, related and unrelated, without even acknowledging their ignorance, conceding error.

    But we are to explain other technical matters to them!

    Like

  • Folks let us leave out the long talk and case studies and cut to the basics which are indisputable.

    Increased taxation in a stagnant economy leads to a further depression in the economy.

    Higher taxation will only bring more revenue to the state if the economy grows. If not the state simply collects the same amount under a different name.

    increased direct taxation as opposed to taxes like VAT remove the circulation of money in the wider economy, hence hindering the possibility of growth in the private sector.

    Finally no economy can grow in an environment where the state and business are fighting for every dollar in circulation, as every dollar taken out the economy in tax, is one lest dollar left in it for growth.

    If we can all agree on the above then let us proceed in simple terms using our own island for discussion and not bring in case studies done in Iceland in 1846! ( to the best of my knowledge no such study ever occurred buy hope you catch my drift)

    Liked by 1 person

  • So once you don’t agree with you and David you talking shite! So wunna is the divine gods on finance then? You ever stop to think it might be you that taking shite and spewing terms which you know little about.

    I had a parrot that knew 50 words, however if I asked him the meaning of one of them he could not tell me the meaning of it.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Where the proof there is higher taxation?

    Like

  • Fellows who I got to apply to for a little pick if I tow the party line too? I ain t want much I would even discard my right to free thought and public scrutiny. Actually for a little more I would even wear the red blinkers, even though they might restrict my view and opinion and force me to engage in the defence of yardfowlism!

    Wait for that I would dead first!

    My mother ain’t raise no sheep. To tell me therefore to proceed smartly and drink from your well of financially tainted wisdom will therefore never occur.

    See how eloquently I dispatched you without sinking into the gutter of vulgarity Pachamama and I wasn’t even really trying! LOL

    Ok wunna now carry on smartly.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    @ Pacha
    Outside of the poodles who lap up the duopoly’s cool aid, I would say that the discussion about the current mis steps of the government, have been quite interesting.
    Political PR convinced the gullible, that just going to the IMF and then refusing to pay external creditors, was genious.
    Non partisan contributors have exposed this nonsense. It was stated from the beginning that 2033 will be when we are completely out of the woods.
    To join the chorus of those who are suggesting that criticism of the government is somewhat unreasonable because they inherited a difficult circumstance is a sophisticated red herring.
    You have stated repeatedly that the current financial system is under collapse. Yet we find ourselves going begging the very apostles of that system , in the form of the IMF. By your own offerings over the years, it is destined to fail.
    Non partisan contributors are therefore analyzing how best we can utilize this inferior system to our advantage. I repeat that you have already condemned it to failure. I have never heard of a “ successful” IMF program. I said from the out set that it is a medicine and not a cure. The operation may be successful but the patient , as you gave often predicted, will die.
    If you maintain that the system is broken it stands to reason that we are putting ourselves at greater risk by getting on a boat that is springing leaks or buying a house with a roof that cannot be repaired.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @ John A

    Have you seen the pattern? I have said before it is cultural. No matter the logic, or illogic, the baying dogs keep on barking, while ignoring the substantive issues. It is our educational system. Get used to it.
    I have balance and I hope you do too; I talk to friends and former colleagues, neighbours and strangers who at the very least are rational. There are lots of good people out there, seek them out.
    A returnee once told me that she tried to avoid locals, except when she had to make contact in banks, shopping or paying bills. It was her strategy for remaining sane.

    Like

  • Sir William Skinner

    This is certainly not the first time Barbados has gone to the IMF. And it maybe not the last either. Were the others not successful if the country was able to get out of such programs previously.

    And we have no love for the IMF and certainly not the BLP, it is necessary to approach this matter with a certain kind of determination. Why? To see whether in the short and medium term Barbados can navigate itself out of this mess. That is our interests.

    We stand by our master narrative about the future of capitalism, financialization. The financial system, as you put it.

    But within that we have a particular set of circumstances to judge. A minor narrative.

    We see no contradictions between master narrative and minor narrative.

    You may think about this level of analysis with concentric circles, if you will. With master narrative the outer circle and minor narrative the innermost circle.

    Sir William, we invite you to examine other economic and financial failures of a similar magnitude to that we have been predicting.

    Because we have made prediction about the future, how do you then convince everybody else about your concerns? Do we stop doing everything else because of such predictions? Must life enter stasis and await the inevitable collapse predicted? Then there is the gap between predictions and actual outcomes, how is that to be measured with accuracy?

    We are sure that your answers will demonstrate the realities of life.

    Like

  • Barbados became a member of the IMF in the 70s. It is there for a reason. When countries f**k up. Barbados in May given its low level of foreign reserves and junk status credit rating (one above SD) was in danger of defending the peg.

    You guys and gals can take it from there…

    Like

  • This is my final reply to the naysayers on here like john A,Barbados 2019 , Hal Austin and particulaly William Skinner.This government inherited a government in crisis due to poor management for 10 years,that Mr Skinner is a fact not a red herring which you cannot dispute.Hence they had little option than to default or run out of foreign exchange.Therefore they took the sensible option.What is interesting is Dr Worrell who was a key figure in the last government is now an advisor to these creditors.In my view something smells rotten here but everything will be worked out in the interest of Barbados not the overseas bellyaching bajans.

    Like

  • Can the DLP say they inherited a government in crisis after 14 yrs of BLP rule? Grow up, you idiots. Stop blaming each other and come forward with workable plans.

    Like

  • Vincent Codrington

    @ Pachamama

    Carry on smartly. If you do not want material, that is irrelevant to the issues at hand, to be discussed,do not introduce them. Bloggers are not as ignorant as you would like them to be. But I am glad you did. It revealed a lot more than you intended.

    Like

  • The DLP inherited a government with foreign reserves at what level again?

    The IMF intervention in 2018 was triggered by our inability to earn and to and extent borrow to defend the peg and maintain adequate import cover.

    Will resist using the idiot word at you.

    #idiot

    Like

  • Hal re your post of 5.09

    Yes I noticed that once you question anything the government does you are anti government, even if you use facts to support your questions.
    Did you read the earlier comment by a loyalist who said people who question the state should be gassed? Hail Hitler to you too then.

    The next approach is to use the DLP did this and the BLP did that. Now if that fails they then move to name calling and obscenity. When the fails they disappear for a while.

    Liked by 1 person

  • William Skinner

    I don’t reply to apologists. Pacha isn’t an apologist. The duopoly continues to destroy the country. May they all burn in the political hell.

    Like

  • David I agree with you about us going to the IMF as we needed low interest financing and oversight. I also don’t fault the debt restructuring as it will save us money on debt service. Where I think many differ is they are not convinced that government has done enough to cut their spending and has instead placed too much of a burden on the bond holders. We have all heard persons speak of the bloated cabinet etc. Again all are entitled to their view.

    On the foreign debt restructuring I think reading the FT article and Bloomberg, that the creditors are not happy with the level of discussions that have taken place. They basically confirmed this in both articles. That combined with no payment for 12 months and being told that no payments will be received for the next 12 , is not the best basis for the discussion of debt restructuring can we agree on that?

    Liked by 1 person

  • “A returnee once told me that she tried to avoid locals, except when she had to make contact in banks, shopping or paying bills. It was her strategy for remaining sane.”

    Like a minefield, with live mines, the mis-education system does more harm than good.

    the leaders are destructive forces.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Cuss those living overseas but accept the barrels and money they send and invite them to a reunion in 2020 to give the economy a boost. BTW don’t forget the hotel rooms, fetes and hired cars the Bajan Yankees use forex to help the struggling economy during crop over.
    Imbeciles !!!!

    Like

  • @ Hal

    Can the DLP say they inherited a government in crisis after 14 yrs of BLP rule? Grow up, you idiots. Stop blaming each other and come forward with workable plans.
    Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Spot on.

    Most of the people living overseas I highly respect their opinions as most times they are not looking through blinkers but at the big picture.

    Why I also have respect is that they have made a good living for them and their families outside of Barbados and don’t have to be a part of a suppresive culture limiting their thought process and freedom of expression.

    The reason Mia wants them in 2020 not because of their vision and experience but to take their financial gains made overseas.

    I am however happy they are able to see the thorns from the roses.

    It is good to question everything especially by these Politicians who are now on the same levels as the corrupt in Guyana and elsewhere.

    Like

  • “The ugly man from England seems to be asking some questions which, in just briefly looking at them, seem to veer miles away from the issue raised initially. That question related to the importance of non-payment for up to 24 months on sovereign debt. He cited the Chinese to suggest that a SD and nonpayment for 24 months means the end of the world for his paradise-home.”

    Oh RH, have I not reiterated over the past few weeks that the neck and height challenged former Editor vacillates, moves the pole and practices intellectual dishonesty to save face? I know wunna doan listen to me because of my 🐝 status but don’t forget that I am not ac.😂😂

    Like

  • @ Lorenzo
    This is my final reply to the naysayers on here like john A,Barbados 2019 , Hal Austin and particulaly William Skinner.This government inherited a government in crisis due to poor management for 10 years,that Mr Skinner is a fact not a red herring which you cannot dispute.Hence they had little option than to default or run out of foreign exchange.Therefore they took the sensible option.What is interesting is Dr Worrell who was a key figure in the last government is now an advisor to these creditors.In my view something smells rotten here but everything will be worked out in the interest of Barbados not the overseas bellyaching bajans.
    Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxcx

    Divide and Rule.

    NOW you have local Bajans versus overseas Bajans.

    BLP vs DLP.

    All smoke and mirrors to deflect from the real issues of lack of transparency, no Integrity Laws as promised, No Minimum Wage increase for the Masses as promised in BLP MANIFESTO and Mia in first 6 months.

    We have continued mismanagement and GROSS corruption still ongoing in 2019.

    Like

  • Why was Colin Jordan so misleading the public on brasd tacks
    Almost on every issue to which he responded their was evidence of halftruths

    Like

  • William Skinner

    Minister’s blanket statement: White Oak saved 3500 jobs.
    Question:How ? Where ? Why was this not stated before ?
    Answer: You want Barbados to fail.
    You are a traitor .The government took over a bad economy. You are a naysayer. You live overseas. You are a Dee.
    Question: Why did Stuart refuse to level about Cahill:
    Answer: it’s in Barbados interest. Why so many questions. Go and live somewhere else. You are a Bee.
    Anybody seeing hope in BLPDLP needs serious help.

    Duopoly Rules.

    Like

  • Really amazed at the answers Jordon gave as to how White Oaks saved jobs when govt intent was to send home less
    When this fiasco is finished the courts cost and fees paid to White Oaks would put barbados in free fall
    It is obviuos that govt has not been at all truthful in its dealings and Jordon utterances spoke well as sufficient proof
    Jordon was a dismissal failure on brass tacks

    Like

  • Enuff

    Everybody on BU, maybe elsewhere as well, knowns the modus operandi of Halton Austin, aka the ugly man from England.

    He’s been doing the same said operation for decades now.

    This is how it goes. First, he raises a question to test his adversary’s knowledge. Not that he necessarily knows the answer, himself! Most times he’s just fishing.

    Once a more than adequate reply is given, he quickly changes the subject away from the specifics of the original question or inquiry.

    God help yuh if any aspect of the response is unclear, imprecise, or beyond his tiny circle of knowledge.

    Austin will then see such as a chink in one’s armour and would bring up the slightest mis-statement, again and again, for years. Halton Austin is nothing less than an internet parasite!

    At times this writer finds it most difficult to try to explain complex subjects in fewest words possible. Yet Austin seems to expect contributors to transfer 30 years of expertise in a soundbite.

    Like

  • David

    Lord have mercy!

    Did we ever see any such timely communication about critical matters from the last DLP duopoly regime forces.

    Like

  • @Pacha

    No but if we accept that government is a continuum one expects the BLP to do the job. It will be interesting for example to see how the government responds to Guy Mayers’s column about the whispered sale of LIAT shares. Mind you these people were part of a government dubbed the ‘the government of silence’.

    Like

  • @ Pachamama
    ””’Carry on smartly. If you do not want material, that is irrelevant to the issues at hand, to be discussed,do not introduce them. Bloggers are not as ignorant as you would like them to be. But I am glad you did. It revealed a lot more than you intended.”””

    Vincent Codrington

    There must be a misunderstanding. We just wanted to answer a single question raised, not be drawn into teaching a PhD course around the areas of strategic default (SD) on a blog.

    We would never associate the word ‘ignorant’ with you and most other bloggers. However, there are clear and notable exceptions to that general disposition.

    This writer has not in the past, is not now, and will not in the future, deliberately withhold information which maybe in the public’s interest.

    What you might have sensed was a reluctance to present overly complicated issues to a readership which might not be as knowledgeable in your area, as you obviously are. That’s all!

    You may have the last word!

    Like

  • David

    What is the recent political or journalistic history of this Guy Mayers.

    Like

  • @Pacha

    He is a policeman by upbringing. He is one of many policemen who studied law as a pathway from the force. Given his DLP bent he has become entangled in the DLP party hierarchy. To augment the effort he was allowed a column in the Barbados Advocate whose publisher SIR Anthony Bryan has been a supporter in the DLP years. He also raised his profile along with Verla and Hal by speaking to legal matters not withstanding his rookie status.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    @ Pacha
    Mayers’ journalistic “ path “ is consistent with every other party columnist in the country.
    Nothing new or unusual here. Ask Ezra Alleyne of the Nation.

    Duopoly Rules

    Like

  • @William

    You need to expand your comment to provide context. Ezra Alleyne limits his content to matters related to the Constitution (Westminster system)_and related legal matters about which he is labelled a subject matter expert. Guy Mayers writes about anything.

    Like

  • So what if he is a policeman
    By all accounts he is a citizen
    However his comments in the Advocate today speaks volume of an altruistic attempt by present govt to avoid publicly engaging the public on a right to know how and where they taxes are being dispersed in the case of Liat
    What Myerson underscore was a blantant attempt by Mia to hide information behind close doors( unlike Browne) who scolded Mia as being pretentious and manipulative

    Like

  • You should reread the comment this time with comprehension. On second thoughts this maybe a challenge for you.

    Like

  • William Skinner

    @ David
    Ezra Alleyne writes a pro BLP column. He stoutly defends all BLP policies.
    Mayers writes a pro DLP column. He stoutly defends all DLP policies.
    Occasionally they both surprise readers with a general column.
    Please lift your game. Stop your puerile attempts to mislead people who take time to contribute to your blog.

    Duopoly Rules

    Liked by 1 person

  • Sir William
    David

    We read the article cited and were amazed that such a writer could make a leap from an issue relating to a slight difference between the public relations cultures/strategies of two (2) Caribbean prime ministers and Germany’s Third Reich under Adolf Hitler.

    It was jarring to see such a leap. Wow!

    Like

  • @William

    You should calm down and stop showing your yellow johns. Check the question asked by Pacha and see the blogmaster’s response.

    Like

  • Freedom Crier June 1, 2019 1:00 PM

    BARBADOS PROSPERITY STARTS WITH THE INDIVIDUAL. IF YOU DESIRE CHANGE BETHE CHANGE, DREAM BIG, WORK HARD, CREATE WEALTH! THE RESULT ‘EVERYONE BENEFITS’. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS AND WEALTH…

    NO, THE RICH DON’T GET RICH AT THE EXPENSE OF THE POOR

    “Most rich people do not become rich because they take from the poor, but because they create a great benefit for others.”

    Many people believe that the rich only become rich at the expense of others. This world view is also called zero-sum thinking because its adherents regard economic life as a zero-sum game, just like tennis, where one player has to lose for the other to win. In his poem “Alfabet,” the German poet Bertolt Brecht formulated this zero-sum mindset as follows:
    “Said the poor man with a twitch:

    Were I not poor, you wouldn’t be rich.”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/240058/bwa-pay

    This is how the rich get rich, ya igrunt bleep!

    Poor people have been keeping the BWA afloat so that the rich can make their money and pay a pittance to their workers.

    Now you have almost zero taxes to pay. Pay ya damn water bills, you thieves!

    Liked by 1 person

  • William Skinner

    @ David
    For you to say that Ezra Alleyne “limits” his offerings to constitutional and west minister matters is a blatant lie.

    @ Pacha
    You should not be surprised it is no different from the apologists on BU calling people traitors and unpatriotic because they don’t defend the duopoly. That too is” jarring. You should realize by now that a collective ignorance has invaded the country.

    Duopoly Rules

    Like

  • Dsvid BU ,this Guy William Skinner is a Dem apologist.Therefore do not be fooled by him.He normslly starts by trying to equate the BLP and the DLP Anyone with a modicum of common sense to compare a government wbo had 24 downgrades leaving us at virtual junk bond status to any other government would have to be a madman.However,this isr Skinner,s way of operating in his effort to pull down the BLP at all costs, in the hope that they fail and his Dems can return but it will not happen.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @William

    You forgot to mention that he wrote about related legal matters?

    Can you point to any articles written by Alleyne which do not fit the parameter outlined? The blogmaster is always willing to apologize if proved wrong unlike a few commenters on the blog.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Lorenzo instead of attacking
    Why dont u speak to the on going issues that are affecting the people because of govt policies
    We have people protesting the insenstive actions of this govt some of which are horrfic
    Hiding behind close doors to implement measure that would erode at the social network of this country
    Hence a lady having to resort to shaming govt while in view of public eye asking govt to do the right thing on her behalf so she can feed her family
    This is not the first time also another lady took to social media shaming govt to give her the benefits that she had earned while she was employed
    Lorenzo dont u have no shame to poked your face and put pen to paper in defense of this insenstive govt

    Like

  • William Skinner

    @ for those who have not consumed the cool aid of Roebuck and or George Street

    I have long been anti B and D going back to the mid seventies . First with Barrow and the 1974 Public Order Act and then as very active trade unionist when I came to grips with the legislation of salaries by both parties.
    Attempts to define me on BU have all failed because I have been consistent. For those who have some comprehension left, from these comments , they would see that I lost all respect for the duopoly going back forty plus years. Long before downgrades , IMF Cahill White Oak etc.
    I maintain close friendships within both parties. They all know my position. In conversations they tell me that both parties are the same and that people like me should choose one or the other because they know that I cannot be bought or sold.
    Please note: I never respond to apologists. Only to those who have demonstrated an ability to comprehend basic debate and or subject matter.
    Whenever any controversy comes up any body can draw comparisons and discover we don’t change governments. We simply change parties.
    Hyatt Sandals Cahill White Oak
    Same old same old. Pot calling kettle black.
    May the BLPDLP burn in the political hell they equally deserve.

    Duopoly Rules.

    Like

  • both DLP and BLP mismanage Bim. they just do it in different ways. where as the BLP is arrogant the DLP is indifferent.

    it seems to me that since 76 or thereabouts there seems to have been a political understanding in place where the BLP would borrow and spend and the DLP would come in and impose measures to pay for the BLP’s borrowing. the DLP would then lose and the BLP would come back in and borrow.

    that is why you hear voters saying that when the BLP is in power money circulates and the white business people spend. not true. white business people have never invested in Bim beyond what is necessary to survive. they wait and depend on the largesse of the govt. -either one but mostly the BLP.

    however in this cycle silent Stewart would not play his part either through stubbornness or incompetence and it is now left to the BLP to do a DLP job- how ironic.

    sometimes i believe that is what angers the BLP the most- that this time around the DLP did not impose austerity measures to rescue the economy. instead the DLP worked with whites, added to the deficit and left it for the BLP to fix.

    who says life is fair

    Liked by 1 person

  • @David

    In the interest of full transparency the Dullard thinks you should come clean and declare your interests. Why pretend to be a neutral observer when your argumentation continues to betray your position?

    @Pacha
    The abstract to the article you posted doesn’t really convince. It is but one way to broach and approach the problem. If you search a bit more you will find equally sophisticated methods which reach different conclusions. But of course you already know this.

    Liked by 1 person

  • @Dullard

    Come clean by saying what?

    Please state the reason to inform your statement. Some of you are if the incorrect view the blogmaster of Barbados Underground should be afraid to share his opinions. You are so wrong!

    Like

  • What Guyson Mayers should tell Barbadians is how transparent was his appointment to the $300,000 consultancy he got under the DLP. Was it advertised or put out to tender as he now sees fit for the appointment of sovereign debt consultants? Or was it a selective contract because of his “expertise”? At least we have evidence that White Oak has actually done work. Where is similar proof of Mayers’ results prior to the $300,000 contract and after? Don’t forget his stint as Chairman of the Police Services Commission.

    THE BARBADOS GOVERNMENT is spending big bucks to ensure it has the right systems in place to fight money laundering and terrorism financing within our shores.

    THE BARBADOS GOVERNMENT is spending big bucks to ensure it has the right systems in place to ght money laundering and terrorism nancing within our shores. So serious is the Freundel Stuart Administration that two weeks ago the Cabinet agreed to hire attorney at law Guyson Mayers for 15 months and pay him $300 000 to lead the effort. And it has set aside almost as much to support the exercise, including spending $224 000 to purchase “technical tools” from the World Bank to get the job done. Mayers, a former acting director of the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), will oversee the National Risk Assessment and Mutual Evaluation Exercise of the Anti-money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism Regime of Barbados. To undertake the assessment and evaluation, the project will bring together 26 state and private sector agencies, including the Central Bank, police, customs, Director of Public Prosecutions, Solicitor General, Barbados Bankers Association, Institute of Chartered Accountants of Barbados, the Credit Union League, Barbados Bar Association, dealers in precious metals and stones as well as trust and corporate service providers.

    In explaining how it arrived at the selection of Mayers, the Office of the Attorney General said that the expertise required was not widely available in Barbados “and is limited to people who worked at the FIU, the Central Bank and similar.

    Like

  • Dullard

    Yes, of course!

    All we wanted to do was to show that the leading conceptual models employed are rigorous enough to account for nonpayment of sovereign foreign debt for a period, or periods, of time. That’s all!

    In addition, when one looks at the abstract, it is also possible to gleam, even compare/contrast some of the initial actions by the GoB, even in the same order, as those proffered.

    Lastly, the full document is available by request to the authors.

    Liked by 1 person

  • Only on BU to ask a question is to become a suspect. I asked before, and do so again:

    Plse explain the economics of cutting off the automatic stabiliser, not only will the income of consumers be reduced, but they will become more cautious and save more. Is this not true? Does fiscal contraction make a recession worse?
    If we have six more years of this stagnation – leading to falling taxation and a rising deficit – won’t government austerity make the situation worse? And, given that government has defaulted on its foreign debt, does that not rule out gilt sales, off loading the debt, to big financial institutions and shadow banks?
    Apart from the conventional macroeconomic remedies, won’t such a policy pose a threat to the social order? Is there a case for fiscal stimulus? Do you believe the prime minister is being badly advised?(Quote)

    Liked by 1 person

  • “In explaining how it arrived at the selection of Mayers, the Office of the Attorney General said that the expertise required was NOT widely AVAILABLE in Barbados “and is limited to people who worked at the FIU, the Central Bank and similar.”

    Isn’t the hiring of White Oak taken from the same old playbook,,, expertise not available (widely available) on the island.
    At some stage we all have to admit, different set of players but always the same game.

    Liked by 1 person

  • William Skinner

    @ Hal
    You are a traitor. You want the government to fail. You are a die hard Dee. You should not even be talking because you live overseas.
    BTW please come home in 2020 to the big family reunion; continue to promote the country to people you meet overseas.

    Duopoly Rules

    Liked by 1 person

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