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The blogmaster read the following article over night while perusing the financial newsfeed.

Patriotic Barbadians that understand these matters are obviously concerned negotiations have stalled with external creditors. We have to go with communications being dropped in the public space.

Commonsense support that it is not unusual creditors will push back against having to take a haircut. Barbadians wish the White Oak negotiating team well, as a country we have a lot riding on the best outcome.

Both sides agree the country of 300,000 people needs to cut debt levels. Yet talks have soured in recent weeks over how much of the burden should be borne by creditors in the form of deep haircuts or other terms. For its part, the government said it isn’t willing to negotiate targets established when it took a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year – extracted from the Bloomberg report

Both sides seem to agree a restructure of the debt is necessary given the high debt burden and current state of the economy. What is at dispute is the amount creditors are being asked to leave on the table. Creditors have to protect their interest and the government having opted to SD will have to make it count given the damage to country’s credit rating and how it will be perceived by lenders.

However the foreign creditors will know that they have an overlapping interest with the government of Barbados. If the economy that is precariously perched on the economic cliff continues were to tank all that will be left is Hobson’s choice.

Time to close the deal!


Barbados Clashes With Creditors in Talks to Cut Greece-Like Debt

 

Barbados’ prime minister is butting heads with creditors over how to cut one of the world’s largest sovereign debt loads, creating a sticking point in the year-long negotiations to restructure the Caribbean nation’s defaulted dollar bonds.

Talks with foreign creditors have dragged on since last June, when Prime Minister Mia Mottley said she would restructure the island’s “unsustainably high” debt burden. While both sides said they are open to continued negotiation, they appear far from consensus.

A committee of creditors, who hold 55% of outstanding dollar debt, said Wednesday that they plan to unanimously reject a government proposal to exchange defaulted bonds for new debt unless the two sides negotiate together.

“The committee strongly believes that the launch of a unilateral exchange offer by the government of Barbados without the support of the committee will be highly detrimental to the country’s economic stability,” they said in a statement.

Both sides agree the country of 300,000 people needs to cut debt levels. Yet talks have soured in recent weeks over how much of the burden should be borne by creditors in the form of deep haircuts or other terms. For its part, the government said it isn’t willing to negotiate targets established when it took a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year.

No Compromise

At that time, the government estimated debt had ballooned to about 175% of gross domestic product, meaning it owed around $9 billion. That would have made it one of the world’s most-indebted countries, trailing only a handful of others, including Greece, according to IMF figures. Mottley said she “will not compromise” on the goal of bringing that ratio down to 60% by 2033.

“We leave it to creditors to decide whether this is achieved through a par deal with long tenors and low interest rates, or face value haircuts with shorter tenors and higher interest rates. But the targets must be met in full,” she said in a written response to questions.

Mottley inherited a troubled $5 billion economy when she took office last May. The island known for its white sand beaches had been struggling for years amid competition from less-pricey Caribbean tourism destinations, crumbling infrastructure, and a currency that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar. She quickly struck a $290 million deal with the IMF and restructured about $6 billion in local currency debt.

The government owes around $700 million in dollar bonds, plus bank loans and other foreign debts, according to a spreadsheet posted to a website for creditors in January. Bonds maturing in 2035 have rarely traded in recent months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The creditors committee said it put forth an offer two weeks ago “based on terms that aim to support the government’s debt and reform objectives while creating restructured instruments with broad market acceptance.” The committee said it is made up of long-term investors, regional central banks, individual bondholders and financial institutions and represented by advisers Newstate Partners and Washington-based law firm Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP.

The creditors contend that their offer would have allowed the government to reach its debt target a year later than it wants, according to people familiar with the committee’s negotiations. The committee’s position is that the government’s estimates fail to take into account certain revenue variables and that it is trying force severe restructuring terms on creditors to meet its debt targets, said the people, who were not authorized to discuss the negotiations.

White Oak Advisory, which is representing the government in negotiations, said the creditors’ offer “fails to meet IMF test for debt sustainability, and by quite some margin,” according to an email statement. “It is disappointing that Barbados continues to be faced with this kind of position after almost a year of negotiations.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/barbados-clashes-with-creditors-in-talks-to-cut-greece-like-debt


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374 responses to “White Oak and External Creditors: Flirting with Hobson’s Choice”


  1. Let’s ask ourselves this:

    Were there recent contacts between Dr Worrell, the counselor of international creditors, and other Barbadians to force the government to give in through concerted action? Is there a payroll of international creditors for PR propaganda on which Barbadians stand to betray their own country?

    So we have a lot of questions for those who accuse the government of White Oak.

    We may indeed have a scandal around White Oak. But not because of White Oak, but against White Oak.

    Tron
    – always fair and balanced –

  2. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    The simple old fashioned argument here is that we continue to believe that beggars can be choosers. Refusing to pay debt is an area that we have never entered before. It’s just as damaging to the financial standing of the country, as the several down grades we accumulated under the DLP.
    Naive political posturing cannot wipe away this major international embarrassment.Stuart and company attempted the exact nonsense, when they tried to foolishly convince the country that the several downgrades were of no major importance.
    We need to see through the nonsense that Mottley and company is trying to convince the country, that we are directing the IMF rather than the IMF telling us what the terms are for getting the money.
    It is all inferior political theatre that will only impress those who are shameless defenders of the inept duopoly.
    We need to accept our reality: Downgrades; refusing to pay our creditors and in the clutches of the IMF is where we are.
    Bogus arguments and pie in the sky political/party platitudes mean absolutely nothing at this stage.
    This is not a time for the platitudinarian.
    Duopoly Rules.


  3. @Wiliam

    With the foreign reserves declining in the last decade, with over 400 million in loan commitment coming up, where is the foreign exchange to come from?

    Growth measures will take time to take root if they materialize. We have borrowed heavily over the years and have not earned enough, there is a price to be paid. It is easy to sit in your rocking chair and opine we should not have defaulted. Should Barbados have continued to sell the family silver as Sinckler was doing? Should we have devalued? Say what we should have done or zip the tired narrative.

    One hopes the process the country is going through will trigger needed behavioural change.

  4. William Skinnner Avatar
    William Skinnner

    @David
    You are obviously looking for a political argument. I did not indicate anywhere in my submission that the country had or did not have an alternative. I merely stated the facts of our current situation.
    The behavioral change as you said is to zip the tired narrative. I say to you : physician heal thyself.
    Thanks.


  5. You need to remind yourself what you wrote. It is clear you are critical of the decision by the government to default.


  6. Remember the situation of Argentina. Argentina is much bigger than Barbados and it under went social upheavals as a result of a default. There was even the instance when the creditors had the naval training ship seized in a west African port; Argentina had to go to court to regain the ship. Unlike Barbados, Argentina had beef and soy to export to China. Barbados can’t even produce ten-thousand tons of sugar and its dependence on tourism (a very fickle industry-one storm and it’s the end) doesn’t augur well for its economic outlook. Barbados is not in a position to play hard-ball for any length of time.

  7. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ David
    You are dead wrong. I did not make any such statement in my submission. Kindly read Jeremy Stevens opinion in Barbados Today.
    BTW He’s a Barbadian living in Barbados.


  8. Jeremy “caveman” Stephen (sic!) wanted to offer us this Arab loan. Did he want to earn a bonus for it? Not a very credible witness.

    No creditor who had bought government bonds or granted a loan since 2008 could seriously expect the repayment of the full amount of the principal PLUS contractually guaranteed interest.

    The international creditors must be happy if they get the principal without interest. Our government even adds moderate interest rates. So no comparison with Argentina, which even radically reduced the principal sum.


  9. Do not care what Stephen wrote elsewhere or is quoted elsewhere. All the talking heads in Barbados come gift wrapped with biases. The blogmaster is capable of fashioning his own.


  10. @Dr. Lucas

    Take your view to a logical conclusion. Barbados is never to reach in natural resources. We produce precious little to export. What is the benefit to 55% external creditors prolonging a restructure to the detriment of the country, a country that will ultimately have to repay the debt. A case of shooting yourself in the foot. What is playing out is a negotiable playing itself out in the public, let White Oak get on with the job it is being paid handsomely to do.


  11. Sir William Skinner

    We both know that this is not your primary area of deep knowledge.

    You are making a number of wrong assumptions.

    Firstly, the 290 million USD from the IMF is coming in tranches over a few years. We seem to remember only about 49MM has been received so far. To the GOB the IMF funding is not only to support balance of payments but more importantly to reverse the recently made bad credit history and return to the financial markets to continue borrowing. In some ways this intention is somewhat more dangerous than you presumed.

    Secondly, you must know that this writer is no ‘shameless defenders of the inept duopoly’. However, we defend the GOB’s position and actions because the strategic default by Mugabe Mottley was unavoidable. At least Mottley brought the people into her confidence and kept us abreast with her every significant action. Government at least deserves credit for that. Compared to the other side of the duopoly which acted as they did. As though we were children.

    Thirdly, it was the DLP which dealt a terrible hand to this new regime. There was no money to pay the debt exactly on entering office but still you continue to misguidedly equate the strategic default by Mottley to the five years of downgrades by the DLP, without a clue how to stop them, reverse them. This equation is highly unbalanced. Indeed, balance to your argumentation could only be reestablished if the DLP is properly blamed for the lack of options left Mottley. To us, that is a crime against Barbados worthy of the actual rolling of heads.

    Fourthly, while we agree, and we were ahead of the game in defining the ruling system as a duopoly, you must certainly see that while we have a duopoly that its organic nature allows it to ebb and flow, redistributing relative power as it goes. Right now the BLP has the equivalent of a one-party statism operating as all-powerful government, while the other part/s is/are virtually impotent.


  12. @ David
    I realize that haggling over the terms of repayment is being done. It looks as though Dr.Worrell is getting his revenge (he is in a position to explain the ins and outs of decision making locally). I really don’t have much respect for the man from a professional aspect (he didn’t act the way a professional would have done when he was in office: he could have told the authorities where to carry themselves and walk way, that is what I would have done):that being said, he has all rights to look after what he views as being in his best financial interests, even if it results in Barbados being disadvantaged. One can therefore expect reasonable ( viewed from Barbados’s side) offers to be refused.
    I did not find that William Skinner in his first two postings was being political. You maybe too sensitive on the matter.

    Since Barbados has very few resources, greater use should be made of its people; it is the only way for the island to dig itself out of the current impasse. People have to be selected on merit not on connections.


  13. @Dr. Lucas

    William’s statement was empty and not relevant to current state. A hard decision which should have been taken years ago. Barbados was on a skid as far as credit ratings is concerned and locked out of the capital markets. The result, a country unable to have access to concessionary and for development purposes. We have seen the crumbling in infrastructure and high debt servicing cost.

    Talk is cheap!

  14. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ David
    @Dr. Lucas
    @ Pacha

    First, I really don’t have the capacity to respond to David at this time.
    Secondly , Dr Lucas’ training has directed him toward fact rather than fiction and he understands what he reads. I would suggest that he offers David some tutorials in basic comprehension.
    Thirdly, Pacha must know that my submission was not an attack nor defence of the current regime. And by now he should know that I have no deep knowledge of anything.
    What I certainly know is that Pacha is not a “ a defender of the inept duopoly “


  15. David you did a good job retrieving this article as it gives people a true base for discussion. Let’s hope they read it before commenting.

    Will get back to you later today with my concerns. In the meantime I hope no one says that Bloomberg has anything against us as they claimed the FT did.


  16. @William

    One does not have to be trained to be dispassionate. Your first comment posted did not make contact in a pragmatic way with the issue.


  17. William and Lucas u have rightly measured the pluse of this govt posture
    Enough said
    Leave David alone to use patriotism as a guiding stick upon which country should lean leading to negative consequences
    His ignorance has no bounds
    When all is said and done any hard line approach by govt on the restructing of its debt would close any further financial doors for the country leaving this country to its own undoing
    Hence Argentina should be an example which govt should not follow


  18. The borrower is servant to the lender. Full stop. Barbados can’t borrow like there is a no tomorrow on one hand, while on the other whine like little babies when things go tits up. Why should Barbados be treated differently by the international lenders?

    The Barbados debt is simply another investment and they are fully within their rights to recover THEIR money and protect their interests.

    What did Mia expect? You can’t just refuse to pay back whom you owe and expect them to smile and say thanks… Well unless you are a Bajan sheep.


  19. @Dullard

    Wrong.

    Countries will default on debt and a consequence is that there has to be agreement the level of haircut.

  20. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ all those who have a basic knowledge of comprehension

    This is the only issue:
    The failed DLP’s economic policies caused a huge amount of downgrades and the economy was in a mess.They were rewarded with no seats in Parliament
    The BLP got into office; entered an agreement with the IMF and also defaulted on paying external creditors
    The current government and the external creditors are failing to meet an agreement
    The longer this remains the more destructive it becomes on the efforts being made by the current regime to correct the problems in the economy.
    The solution : try and get an agreement sooner rather than later
    The reality is that our collective backs are against the wall because we owe the money. We (the people of Barbados) not the residents of Roebuck Street)
    The non solution: platitudinous nonsense.
    Hope I have made myself clear.
    Now go and read Pacha and it will show that he is saying the exact thing!!!!
    Duopoly Rules


  21. Dullard

    Within the financial markets debt is generally seen as such and yours is not the complete story. The markets are more sophisticated. People, country, default all the time.

    Mottley is merely asking for a renegotiation. Most would see this amongst the minimum set concessions debtors often demand.

    Mottley, for example, might have contended that the Barbados foreign debt is odious, but she’s not making that claim. Some may see such a claim as specious. But this and others are made all the time to rearrange debt profiles.


  22. @Wiliiam

    All we have here is a group of creditors that represent 55% of external bondholders using their influence in the international media to exert influence on the ongoing negotiations. First it was the FT now Bloomberg. So far little Barbados fighting back.


  23. This is a govt that promised transparency and as of yet except for a occasions when govt hoisted a flag of gaggle commuination nothing on how govt policies and terms of agreement have been placed in the public domain
    We have land and houses at Coverly which were sold without transparent measures attached
    We have the moving of the University out of Dominica to Barbados under suspicious measures
    We have govt taking charge of bond holders saving in the dead of night
    We have White Oaks
    Of recent we have Liat
    Why now should creditors bow to terms and agreements of this govt who have shown the propensity to do whatever it pleases at will


  24. David

    You are right, your last post

    This too requires a strategic response.

    The Mottley regime should now deploy the millions of Caribbeans at home and abroad and deliver billions of emails to the enemy in order to bring balance in this little economic war.


  25. @blogmaster and Pacha

    Yes countries default all the time. The Dullard is well aware of this. Some default probability is usually assumed when pricing bonds so investors are prepared to accept reasonable losses. That is not the gist of the Dullards submission, though.

    It appears to me – – based on what is seeping out publicly– that the Bdos govt is expecting their overseas creditors to accept unreasonable terms. That’s the point.

    Why do you think there’s been an impasse in the first place?


  26. David

    You think MAM knows that we are calling her Mugabe?


  27. @Pacha

    She needs to get the IMF to flex as well because closing this will impact the strategy to close.


  28. @Pacha

    Mia is an enthusiastic follower of social media like the late David Thompson was but unlike her predecessor.


  29. @Dullard

    We know only what is being handed to us by stories planted in the international media.


  30. All we have here is a group of creditors that represent 55% of external bondholders using their influence in the international media to exert influence on the ongoing negotiations.

    @blogmaster

    Get real boss. You think this is boy scouts?
    Dog eat dog buddy.


  31. *@Dullard

    We know only what is being handed to us by stories planted in the international media.*

    I know that the terms must be onerous for the creditors to be pushing back this hard against one of the most indebted states in the world.


  32. @Dullard

    Exactly and Barbados biting back.

    You prefer we run away squealing with the tail between the leg?


  33. @Dullard

    You push hard to land somewhere close.


  34. Dullard

    There is an impasse because the very nature of creditors is to be unforgiving, hard-nosed, recalcitrant. Because the GOB has certain target and seem to be sticking to them,

    The creditors are people who may also have contracts or other accountabilities to investors, etc. They may even be uncompetitive should they reduce the stream of payments promised to those interests.

    We are not persuaded that the GOB is demanding ‘unreasonable terms’. It’s simply a tough negotiation process. This was never going to be easy, never is. But we believe that the GOB is in a superior position and will prevail eventually. The country should exercise patience.


  35. @David

    “agreement the level of haircut.”

    Why do you think creditors have to agree to a HAIRCUT. They can ultimately go to the INTERNATIONAL COURT and have punitive actions taken to recover their debts owing. Tightening the SCREWS as they say. Most of these lenders have already written these debts off, they are now out for BLOOD, and tell me why they should have any remorse or consequence for doing same. It was Barbados democratically elected government that got the country into this situation(4 times in the last 65 years) and they still have not LEARNED, no doubt the fault of their great free education system.

    It’s now time for SIGNIFICANT BLOOD LETTING AND LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES to STOP the begging and whining. Barbados has to learn about CONSEQUENCES which to date they have avoided.
    If Barbados wants to be a player in the new world economy they need to learn the rules and CONSEQUENCES.

  36. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    @ Pacha

    Dig a little deeper. Imagine one Caribbean diplomatic office expounding on your position. Imagine Barbadians and all Caribbean nationals living overseas meeting at different venues to highlight our plight. Imagine a progressive unified Caribbean dispatch . And then you may see the wisdom in a truly progressive Caribbean state. Imagine….dig deep into your philosophical and ideological positions


  37. Sir William

    Totally agree!!!!!!!!!


  38. @Wily

    Did you read the article posted to Bloomberg? Both sides agree that Barbados needs the restructure


  39. I think we also have to ask ourselves what will the fallout be in the medium to long term even if a deal is reached. Yes we will offer 2 they will say 6 we will say four and eventually a deal will be reached. My concern is after that how will be viewed in the international market?

    Right now we are borrowing from the IMF, CDB etc, but we will eventually have to return to the international market at some time.

    My question is with 20 odd downgrades and a default, followed by a stand off with foreign creditors how will be treated down the road?

    I don’t want to get in the D’s did this and B’s that, but instead to look past that and an eventual settlement on the foreign debt and ask ourselves how will we be dealt with on return to the international markets whether it be in 2 years or 5.

    That is why both parties need to walk away satisfied from this foreign creditor settlement. Even if they don’t walk away happy, they must feel they were fairly treated on both sides of the table.


  40. @John A

    Look around and see how other countries that have defaulted are doing. You will always find a lender, it is the price you are willing to pay. Key will be the recovery of the economy and improving the credit rating from the leading rating agencies. Once the rating improves the lenders will make the adjustment to their risk appetite and pricing.

  41. WUAR-War-on-U Avatar

    AGAIN:

    “If Barbados wants to be a player in the new world economy they need to learn the rules and CONSEQUENCES.”

    And stop with the stupid punching above ya weight shitey catch phrase….cause if ya weren’t so damn MIS-EDUCATED..and DUMB …ya woukd know that punching above ya weight….IS A FAIL…

    Do you see the fly weight class attempting to lift welter weight without falling on their asses, well do ya…

    Exactly…


  42. David

    As I posted just now on the other blog, Sebastian Espinosa (White Oak) is a former colleague of ALL of the partners of Newstate Partners, the company mentioned in the Bloomberg article as representing 55% of the bond holders. All yuh stand dey!!


  43. A deal must be struck…. and soon! The longer this mess continues, the closer we head towards a ‘no win-no win’ situation for our country & creditors! Yes… we all agree the previous government was incompetent & we got rid of them …. all of dem.… but we now dealing with ‘reality’ and the belief that we are ‘different’ and should be treated ‘different’ ain’t going to work in the real world. Lord help us if a hurricane hit this season!!!


  44. @Enuff

    The art of negotiations is what it is.

    If you are losing a position at the table what is left is to pull the other levers. In this case it is to leverage public opinion. Some here have bought into it hook line and sinker because it fits narrow agendas.

  45. Dentistry Whisperer (M. Pharm. D) LinkedIN Avatar
    Dentistry Whisperer (M. Pharm. D) LinkedIN

    Beware less Elton (Elombe) is running Barbados from Jamaica. PM Mia Mottley has been dubbed “The Flipflop PM” since Richie Haynes. (1) PSV out of control?(2) Bus fares – Public Transport?(3) Gun amnesty?(4) 12 new Universities – (Elombe’s dictum)?(5) Homicide rate = 2 per week (Census – 280,000) (6) Property taxes in chaos?(7) Open underground haven for illicit drugs?(8) Free press stymied by PM’s office release audit?(9) Subterranean water at Castle Grant beyond current marine biology?(10) Bitcoin and Rawdon Adams?(11) Goddard’s floating drug vault in Carlisle Bay?(12) Bloomberg downsizes Barbados on GDP vs revenue?(13) Barbados private entrepreneurial spirit looks to St.Lucia and The Grenadines?       


  46. i have no issues with MAM negotiating for a better deal here. i dont agree with her defaulting- she didnt need to- but once she did so she had no choice but to fight for a deal favourable to Bim or rather least burdensome under the circumstances

    i commend her and hope she does get a better deal. i think she will because ultimately the creditors want to be paid and it is in their interest to strike a deal


  47. @ William

    All we have here is a group of creditors that represent 55% of external bondholders using their influence in the international media to exert influence on the ongoing negotiations. First it was the FT now Bloomberg. So far little Barbados fighting back(Quote)

    @ William,

    This is what is called in journalism a good story It has nothing to do with the stupid idea of a conspiracy by creditors and their supporters in the media. This is a small-minded idea by small-minded people.
    I know based on the public mortality of Barbados, this may be normal. But in mature countries, any journalist caught doing PR for a friend/client will be sacked and barred from the industry.
    I have stated before how this is likely to play out: if the creditors do not get 100 per cent of their money, or near enough, they will sell the debt at discount to a vulture fund who will then pursue (rightly) the debt through the US courts. Watch this space. There is no free lunch among the big boys.


  48. @ Wily Coyote May 31, 2019 8:29 AM

    It will head to a federal judge in NYC, I suppose.

    The naïve popular masses and their populist defenders on BU brag about their literacy rate. As financial illiterates, they do not master any basic financial rules. You can easily imagine them howling and lamenting when negotiations fail and currency reserves run out. Even today they have not understood the seriousness of the situation. Instead of increasing their weekly working hours to 50 hours, they pick their noses in their air-conditioned offices, play around on their mobile phones for half a day and brag about their half-education.

    It is a good thing that our Prime Minister is not one of these simpletons.


  49. You have to ask if some of them have Barbados at heart.


  50. @David

    “Barbados needs to restructure”

    We all agree major long term restructuring is reguired, its the implimentation and follow through of said restructuring thats in question.

    Talking about this in Barbados means it’s DONE, FORCED ACTION AND LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES at least for a generation will be needed for the necessary populace and politicial adjustments to sink in and take effect. Your the one who’s always saying SOCIAL CHANGE is required, opportunity is knocking, however watch the local populace and politicians skillful manoeuvring to avoid any longterm consequences.

    SAME OLD SAME OLD.

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