The Rise And Fall of Brexit
Prime Minister Theresa May suffered an embarrassing defeat to her BREXIT package in parliament yesterday and will likely face a no Confidence motion later today. If she survives the no confidence motion she will have 70 days before the default clause kicks in to boot the UK from the EU.
What are her options? There is the obvious which is to ask for a delay. Another referendum seems silly. What is ominous for the Tories is that the business sector has separated itself from government’s position.
Across the globe there is a common trend; chaos – the inability of the political class to form partnerships, build coalitions to practice conflict resolutions to arrive at compromise positions.
Submitted by Pachamama
It would require a Water Diviner, a top Senegalese Marabout, an Obeah woman from Benin and a Bajan Bushman, acting in unison, for Theresa Mary May to avoid her fate after the Brexit Deal is voted-down, on Tuesday, in the House of ‘Commons’.
We witnessed firsthand, on June 23, 2016, the British peoples in their majority voting to leave the European Union (EU) – approximately 52% to 48%. The referendum, promised by David Cameron, was a response to the overarching and historic dictatorial tendencies emanating from Brussels but also represented a reassertion of Whiteness and innate neo-fascist tendencies. It has now set a series of processes in place the enormity of which are having the unforeseen consequences few could have imagined.
And, we must admit, that the politics are very difficult on all sides. The main actors are the European Union (EU), the Conservative Party and their coalition partner, (the DUP) and the main opposition Labour Party.
May is facing all manner of rebellion within her ranks. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) a far-right, terrorist fringe has called for her resignation. In addition, she faces nay-votes from up to 100 of her own conservative colleagues. These include a number of pretenders to the primeministership – Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, el al.
Not even the last-minute suggestion of a second referendum as part of her proposals to parliament is likely to be sufficient to galvanize enough support from a difficult coalition of conservatives, the DUP, the Blairist labour MPs, and others, to save May’s Brexit Deal. These suggest a most likely ‘Brexit without a deal’, given the calendar and assuming all other political forces ‘remain’ equal, no pun intended.
The man who could be British prime minister by Christmas, Jeremy Corbyn, also has long-running discord within the ranks of the Labour Party with Tony Blair loyalists and ‘EU remainers’ like Chuka Umunna continuing to provide Corbyn with all manner of contrived hurdles include the accusation that Corbyn was an anti-Semite. What a canard!
The EU for its part faces growing geopolitical and internal crises which together may suggest its beginning of the end. However, its outward determination presents a stalwartness aimed at keeping the troops (other EU countries) in line by shooting a general, the UK, in a public place. They, the EU, are unyielding. Suggesting that no other Brexit deal than that already negotiated with Theresa May will be possible after a no-vote in the ‘Commons’, as a further constraint to popular perceptions about sovereignty.
Of course, the sub-plots are the issues relating to Scotland, the re-unification of Ireland, the rekindling of relationships with former colonial possessions, international trading arrangements with major countries etc. All of these are casting uncertainty about the future for both ‘little’ and ‘big’ England. Even in May’s Brexit Deal issues pertaining to the Customs Union, borders, nationality and others ‘remain’ unclear.
We present three (3) possible scenarios that are likely to end this crisis in the short term, though politics pretends to be about making the impossible, possible, some say. These are all predicated on the assumption that Theresa May will be defeated in the House of ‘Commons’ tomorrow.
First, that a general election will be called and that Labour will win but that Corbyn would continue to find Brexiting a difficult proposition. This explains his well-known tactic of neither fully supporting nor fully opposing Brexit in principle.
Second, that the coalition led by May will force her resignation and that one of the pretenders mentioned earlier will assume its leadership. In these circumstances, we see no overt determination to leave the EU if staying remains slightest possibility. This will be a win for Brussels.
Third, and this is the most unlikely scenario, that a radical transplantation occurs in British politics. With this, we ‘may’ see Blairist forces within Labour join with EU ‘remainers’ in the Conservative Party and others to form a new ruling bloc.
As the political undertakers plane the wood for May’s coffin the leading pallbearers, on all sides, are marshalling their forces to be the first at body. Still, it remains uncertain who will get to control the carcass, and what it will mean to be British for the peoples of these islands in the North Atlantic.