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Standard & Poor’s Lowers Barbados Sovereign to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ (outlook is negative)

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worrell-sincklerBarbadians have become fatigue under the the constant negative feedback from armchair pundits and professionals like S&P. Where do we go from here? All the experts have painted a gloomy forecast EXCEPT the minister of finance Chris Sinckler.  Who are the citizens to believe Sinckler or all the other who are experts in the field.

The report from S&P explains the mouthing from Dr. Warren Smith who heads the Caribbean Development Bank who has advised government to privatize the Barbados Port Authority and Grantley Adams Airport. The following extract from S&P report confirms what the BU family has been writing about for a few years.

Who will act to stop the rot or it it too late!

However, usable international reserves, which we consider for assessing external liquidity, are even lower; we subtract the monetary base from international reserves because reserve coverage of the monetary base is critical to maintaining confidence in the exchange-rate regime. Barbados’ usable reserves have been negative since 2013, and the position continues to deteriorate, in part because of the central bank’s deficit financing, which has expanded the monetary base. We expect Barbados’ gross external financing needs to be above 200% of current account receipts (CAR) plus usable reserves. We expect narrow net external debt to average around 40% of CAR during 2016-2018. Our external assessment also considers that net external liabilities of a projected 170% of CAR during 2016-2018 are substantially higher than narrow net external debt. Finally, we note that Barbados’ International Investment Position has inconsistencies and is not timely.

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277 responses to “Standard & Poor’s Lowers Barbados Sovereign to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ (outlook is negative)”

  1. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    Lol…Piece, these people at BWA are actually waiting for double time while millions of gallons of water run down Prospect Hill….down Prospect Main Rd and down to Fitts Village.

    Ya cant make this stuff up.

  2. chad99999 Avatar
    chad99999

    The level of perceived corruption in Barbados is low compared to Grenada (“Mr. Suitcase” Keith Mitchell), Antigua (the Bird family), Trinidad (under Kamla every big contract had a percentage for the team), Guyana and Jamaica ( open gangsterism).

  3. millertheannunaki Avatar
    millertheannunaki

    @ David September 24, 2016 at 3:16 PM
    “So they have included Hyatt investment in the forex inflows BEFORE Town Planning approval? The implication is that Maloney’s company will enter the capital market? Who can explain?”

    This Hyatt investment forex inflow is just a fictional figment of the CBB Guv’s imagination of doctoring the books to please his political masters and satisfy their reporting propaganda.

    I would certainly like to see that group of ‘above-the-board’ of international moneylenders who would take their clients’ money and invest it in that Hyatt Tower of Babel project after that Four Seasons fiasco of failure.

    Should that be the case both Madoff and Stanford should be set free and appointed to the board of the Baloney Bajan Investment & Trust Association of Conmen.

    BTW, what has become of Pitbull Estwick’s plan to refinance the national debt with easy money from the financial slave traders from the Middle East?

  4. Due Diligence Avatar
    Due Diligence

    millertheannunaki September 24, 2016 at 3:59 PM #

    “This Hyatt investment forex inflow is just a fictional figment of the CBB Guv’s imagination of doctoring the books to please his political masters and satisfy their reporting propaganda.”

    The Guv also include4 the long forgotten $300 million Pure Beach project in his fictional projections.

  5. pieceuhderockyeahright Avatar
    pieceuhderockyeahright

    De Ole man tanks de Honourable Blogmaster for the Rapid Economics Course and The Sage Annunaki and Due Diligence for brekking down these numbers for de ole man.

    I cyan understand all dese big numbers but what i can do is put dem in pictures for people to unnerstand better

    http://imgur.com/a/oi4UX

  6. ac Avatar
    ac

    Depending on private sector inside barsbados is like trying to get cream out of chalk for many years the private sector has heavily relied on govt or taxpayers money keeping them afloat s do not expect anything to change anytime soon.proof being when tourism market slumped the govt had to help draw their wagon along with pumping financial resources in other areas vital to sustainability
    Since the last seven years govt has been fighting tooth and nail availing itself to involving FI as a way forward to creating growth but have been met with vocal opposition from within political quarters.
    Govt must decide that come hell or high water they will not let the politicial opponents be the decision makers cause there sole interest is derailment of govt policies to create growth through FI
    Right now we are in a holding pattern with another FI sitting on the fence waiting approval in the meanwhile the noises continue and govt gives off signals of lacklustre responses. Not good also another reason that down grades would continue as those factors critical to growth remain stagnant and undecided.
    Movement in those areas to create growth no matter hiw small is an overalll reflection to how barbados can remain economically stable

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Is Prime Minister Freundel Stuart still the Chair of the ministerial sub-Committee of Cabinet responsible for efficiently implementing projects or is it David Estwick. Did the Prime Minister on the floor of parliament not promise Barbadians that he would have ensured timely rollout of projects to avoid negative impact on the stimulus effort to the economy by this government?

  8. millertheannunaki Avatar
    millertheannunaki

    @ ac September 24, 2016 at 4:52 PM
    “Govt must decide that come hell or high water they will not let the politicial opponents be the decision makers cause there sole interest is derailment of govt policies to create growth through FI
    Right now we are in a holding pattern with another FI sitting on the fence waiting approval in the meanwhile the noises continue and govt gives off signals of lacklustre responses. Not good also another reason that down grades would continue as those factors critical to growth remain stagnant and undecided.”

    Now who is the one holding up the approval of the so-called FDI projects? On whose desk are the applications for approval or guidance? Mottley’s, the wicking witch, the socialist Comissiong’s or OSA’s, the parro seller of the family silver?

    You better tell your jackass for a boss the Fumbler to stop hiding behind the pile of files lying on his desk and come down from Molasses Hill to do a day’s work for once. Shouldn’t a decision have been made by now regarding the future of the Hyatt project if it is deemed to be so crucial to the economic survival of the country?

    We are monitoring your slow but still cocky movement in the direction towards the wind of Privatization blowing in the storm of Devaluation.

  9. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/canada-and-the-loonie-just-got-some-great-news/ar-BBwAs9R?ocid=spartandhp

  10. Watchman Avatar
    Watchman

    @Millertheannunaki

    Just hoping for a parting shot, by now, Walter PPk Blackman must have discovered that the DLP curse magnet have again interfered with what left of his moral compass like it did many years ago, causing him to run from Barbados

  11. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/barbados-execbriefing.pdf

  12. David Avatar
    David

    Interesting Hants.

    @chad99999

    Still, the recovery in the touris m sector — accounting for 10% of GDP or up to 45% if indirect spillover s are included — is forecast to continue, which bodes well for construction, real estate and retail sector activity. In turn, this should help spur job creation and support domestic demand.

    When we include the informal economy where does the 45% go?

  13. ac Avatar
    ac

    In regards to Hyatt the PM made a statement as follows that he was awaiting word from the Hyatt group concerning changes that were asked to be made by town planning before he could make any further statements on the project
    Now the whole point being that certain request asked of Hyatt most likely would be impossible or improbable , I cannot see the Hyatt being asked to slice of a piece of what makes it brands distinguishable or what have become its signature,Now if town planning and govt is expecting Hyatt to build a hotel several stories lower that would be a tall order to be asking and not going to happen

  14. lawson Avatar
    lawson

    Very odd they mentioned zika but not cuba or sagassum, or the clamp down on offshore accts

  15. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    ACs….it’s not about what Hyatt wants…if Fruendel has an iota of self-respect, intelligence, love for country, respect for the people whose votes he needs to be reelected….he would see that the countries laws, Town Planning’s rules and procedures are implemented and enforced…..and not sell his ass for a hotel.

    Because yall are desperate to sell ya asses for a hotel….does not ean the entire island is..,

  16. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    ac stop misleading the blog! There are Hyatt hotels below 10 storeys. The decision on the number of storeys comes down to location, planning policy and viability.

  17. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    The ACs should be drowned….blights.

  18. ac Avatar
    ac

    Enuff September 24, 2016 at 6:39 PM #

    ac stop misleading the blog! There are Hyatt hotels below 10 storeys.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    where ?

  19. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @ac the Hyatt Ziva Rose Hall in Jamaica is 5 stories— a much more appropriate height for Bridgetown.

  20. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    I thought town planning regs dont allow anything above 5 storeys. ..,the island is goddamn coral rock and caves…..dummy ACs.

  21. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    Well the 5* Hyatt Regency London-The Churchill, for one. Note the FIVE STAR rating. Interestingly, it is located on Portman Square, which is part of the larger Portman Estate–a designated conservation area comprised of many listed (historic importance) buildings.

  22. ac Avatar
    ac

    PTL
    @ac the Hyatt Ziva Rose Hall in Jamaica is 5 stories— a much more appropriate height for Bridgetown.

    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    Consider a resort .

  23. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    Somebody was in PriceSmart shopping. Told me, popcorn chicken up from 47 to 67 BBD AFTER latest downgrade and Sinckler´s special special tax. Increase = 42 % !!!

    Thank you very much establishment for making people to comit suicide.
    Thank you very much independence festivity to remind us to buy our airline ticket for 1 December.

    And the big MoF??? “Don´t panic”, he said. Wow.

    I guess PriceSmart simply anticipated the coming devaluation when popcorn chicken will be 200 BBD.

  24. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    We do not need any discussion about Hyatt here. Only distraction, distraction, distraction. As always.

    Even IF all these project ever materialize, it will be too LATE.

  25. David Avatar
    David

    On the other side here is what the economist from RBC had to say that provoked the MoF to cuss her.

    http://www.barbadostoday.bb/2016/03/15/sinckler-tells-bank-officials-to-put-up-or-shut-up/

  26. Colonel Buggy Avatar
    Colonel Buggy

    Perhaps the Ministry of Agriculture, needs to get hold of Standards and Poor, to alleviate the chronic shortage of B’s ,honey bees, now plaguing the island. As reported on CBC News tonight.

  27. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    The fundamental problem in this country is the increasing GAP between productivity and wages/inflation. Since independence, Bim lost every year some competitiveness in relation to the rest of the Caribbean. The model did work nevertheless during the age of globalization, when foreign investors paid any price for villas at Sandy Lane and elsewhere. This party is over since 2008.

    The so-called window of opportunity will close in 2018. The next government has a limited set of tools to fix the country:

    higher taxes: did not work in the past
    privatization of state owned enterprises: might work
    salary cap for public service: will definitly work
    haircut for national treasury bonds: will definitly work
    haircut for international treasury bonds: will not work (Argentina!)
    expanding the offshore sector: might work
    new ideas for tourism like casinos, naturism etc pp: might work

    So far we only tried the first option. Time has come to try something else.

  28. recoanthony Avatar
    recoanthony

    LORD I HOPE OT 2018, NOT WITH THOSE RETARDED MISFITS

  29. Violet C Beckles Avatar
    Violet C Beckles

    You cant hide land and own it, you cant sleep well to know you living a lie, All members of both parties are liars , The land is the key, We to have adults on this blog that are to be smart, Yet you let lawyers fool you with posting and long talk to remove the focus on the real under laying matter , The fraud and ponzi can not work in the real world , law and order must be maintained to work for the nation as a whole,

    Put pressure on the DBLP to answer your questions, shut the island down until they tell the truth , After the truth then comes the FIX,

    No funds can come in, even COW and Bizzy Williams can no longer get funding for they fraud ponzi ways any more ,There 4 season company in England is dead,Barbados ministers were also investors in a land fraud of Black Rock Plantation,
    Why dont the Archives stop hiding what belong to people and the Library stop holding back information so people can walk in off the street to see what went wrong in bim.

    flying fish and slavery is not the only history of Barbadoes or Barbados, There are many kings queens of England who were not white,

    Study the land everyone else is and this is why the World is shutting their pockets by not investing in Barbados, Turning your back on a burning house does not make the fire go away, YOU must put it out and rebuild,

    Did any of you even NOTICE ? MANY GREAT HOUSES WERE SET A FIRE INSURED BY CLICO , MONEY REMOVED , POCKETS FILLED WITH PUBLIC MONEY? GREAT HOUSES REMOVED TO HIDE THE FOOT PRINT , TO BE SOLD BY LAWYERS TO MAKE A BUCK,WIND MILLS PUSHED DOWN ,,,,AS WE KEEP SAYING MORE DOWN GRADES TO COME,WHY? THE FRAUD IS NOT OVER ITS ON GOING, WAKE UP BARBADOS , THE WORLD knows what the D

  30. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/87351/-moving-goalposts-sinckler

    I dont know which part of lower the deficit the jokes in parliament dont understand, cut your spending. Independence celebrations for a whole year is a waste of money and unnecessary. They already wasted those millions, can’t call it back now.

    Importing over 700,000 dollars in unhealthy foods are a waste and unnecessary.

    S&P is not raising the goal post, you refuse to lower the deficit and cut your unnecessary spending.

  31. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    How is it Grenada and others do not have the same problem.

  32. charles skeete Avatar
    charles skeete

    “salary cap for public service: will definitly work”

    Apparently not working since there has been a salary cap on public workers salaries for the last seven years which would in reality would have been detriment to the economy since less money would be circulating in our ‘meetingturn’ like economy

  33. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    One thing for sure..Sinckler is right, ya cannot devalue the Barbados dollar, not for 2 dats or 2 years, it would turn into 200 years….remember Jamaica and Guyana…unlike these countries combined with Trinidad and Suriname, Barbados has very little to nothing to export.

    Starvation will rule the day because for decades, both governments have discouraged agriculture and encourged fiod imports.

    When all the people stop buying chicken in the supermarkets i0or pricesmart, buy from your local farmers who kill fresh…the marts will lower their prices or have to stop importing and buy from small farmers to resell instead.

    The people have the power in their hands and pockets to dictate which way it goes…if you don’t buy, they can’t sell..none of tgem, nit tge supermarkets, not pricesmart.

  34. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    Sinckler better call up our Great Satan and start making that deal re the US currency, now. They got nothing to lose.

    Cause if a devaluation is forced. ..the dog die, sovereignty will be gone anyway, devastation will rule.

  35. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    Recently, the government was bragging that the unemployment rate at the end of first quarter of 2016 was 9.3%. However, by the end of July 2016 the unemployment rate INCREASED to 10.1% and there were not any comments from Sinckler, Dr. Worrell or even “Pound Food Kellman.”

    Unemployment is countercyclical, i.e. it INCREASES during periods of LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH and decreases when the economy begins to grow.

    Recall the government and their yard-fowl supporters were recently praising the IMF for stating in their last report that the economy “APPEARS to be turning the corner.”

    I bet if the IMF makes a similar outlook as Standard & Poors on the Barbados economy, they will come in for a tongue lashing from these same yard-fowls.

  36. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    “Govt must DECIDE that come hell or high water they will NOT let the political opponents be the decision makers cause there (THEIR) sole interest is derailment of govt policies to create growth through FI….”

    I hope you are not referring to these same “political opponents” who you constantly ask, in this forum, to bring solutions rather than oppose.

  37. David Avatar
    David

    @Charles Skeete

    Good to see you posting on BU, look forward to reading your comments. The word Underground is that a dark bank of economic cloud has enveloped Barbados.

    >

  38. David Avatar
    David

    So Artax tell us, why has the government not release the full 2015 Article IV report?

    The following is instructiveinstructive:

    “Since February 2004, the Article IV report has been published on the IMF’s website unless the country blocks publication. Members like Barbados can refuse to have the staff report published, and they can also prohibit publication of the initial public information notice. – See more at: http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/82383/imf#sthash.jpjI5inD.dpuf”

    >

  39. ac Avatar
    ac

    look around barbados and one would see nice homes nice cars all driven by debt ,the same is true how the country after independence was developed it might have taken fifty years for the reality of the nations large debt to have hit home nonetheless it has arrived and all the political badgering rants and rave is not going to solve the problem.
    We are a nation of debtors but ready to acclaimed an excellence in education if so then why wasn/t this education a gift to one and all not earnestly used to re-invest in the development of our country maybe just maybe the plight we find ourselves driven by debt owed to financial would have been avoided
    However not to be overlooked throughout the years have been a resilience and a fighting spirit to overcome the odds
    Having said all of the above all knows that the country is solely dependable on tourism but woefully devoid of manufacturing upon such a limited resource govt still have to pull a heavy wagon in order to keep the country afloat yet what too cannot be overlook is the noises of oppositions who find every reason built on unreasonableness to contrive and divert necessary growth through FDI said noises none of which are helpful for the nation development…,either we want to push the country forward or we are contented to fight among ourselves while standing in its path
    Apparently this country has reached a point of no return where those who have nothing to offer and have never offered anything towards it development has plenty to say. in so much as i have to say we have slowly become our own worst enemy.Enough said

  40. ac Avatar
    ac

    Artax

    “Govt must DECIDE that come hell or high water they will NOT let the political opponents be the decision makers cause there (THEIR) sole interest is derailment of govt policies to create growth through FI….”

    I hope you are not referring to these same “political opponents” who you constantly ask, in this forum, to bring solutions rather than oppose.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    In all earnest well speaking for my self ,, never believed that the opposition or its supporters have any real solutions just take a peek the privatization genie has once again been let loose out of the bottle and as i recall was the economic magical solution the blp had introduced as solving the nation woes , so looking for solutions from supporters or party members was already a far fetched conclusion knowing what they had proposed over the years

  41. ac Avatar
    ac

    btw David a little birdie told me that is not the same Charles skeete you are alluding

  42. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    Look what the MoF replied: “It is unfortunate but not generally unexpected.”

    Everytime we get a downgrade he says “I anticipated that” or “I expected that” to look clever.

    Why is the MoF not acting if he really “anticipates” every downgrade? Why is he doing nothing else then permanently raising taxes?

    However, I even anticipate a C in 2018 and a D in 2020.

    ac, ask the MoF: Is he doing the same? Anticipating C and D?

  43. Anonymouse - TheGazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – TheGazer

    What are the implications for Barbados?
    Is it just a report, like earlier ‘disputed IMF reports’ and we continue on our merry ways?
    Price of borrowing? devaluation? Forex? Goverment response?
    Those with expertise in the area, need to comment…..

  44. Anonymouse - TheGazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – TheGazer

    *government
    for the worms out there

  45. Gabriel Avatar
    Gabriel

    The comment on the downgrade by Sinckler is the comment one has come to expect from a JA who has proved over and over that a boy especially a wild boy from a wild boy environment cannot think other than like a wild boy and will never be able to do a man’s job.So once again Froon,Stinkiar and the wild boys have proved to a group uninterested in a fatted calf mentality that they are all froth,no substance.

  46. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    The situation since 2008 is like watching a bus with 50 children on board driving into a massive concrete wall IN SLOW MOTION. And what is the commentator saying: “I anticipated it since I did not fill up the brake fluid.” Wow.

  47. Anonymouse - TheGazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – TheGazer

    What tools in the government arsenal can be used to rescue the island?
    Is the rescue team trained, capable or even knowledgeable of the problems (or solution)?
    Is tourism a strong enough pony to pull us out of this hole?
    What about the other plans (schemes) made by the government? Is that the rescue package?
    Is our ass grass?

  48. Anonymouse - TheGazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – TheGazer

    Solutions wanted.
    The problem with a sinking ship is that if you are port or starboard, stern or bow; we all go down.
    All hands to the oars.
    Solutions wanted from all…..

  49. Tron Avatar
    Tron

    “Solutions wanted”?

    Soon we have to exercise rites of last resort like dancing during moonlight around a big fire at the Atlantic coast, worshipping the old gods and sacrifying animals and more. The prayers in church did not work for many years.

    At least the tourists will enjoy the spectacle: Politicians dancing half naked around a fire, incanting Abassi, Bumba and Yemaya. Should bring at least 100,000 extra tourists in.

  50. ac Avatar
    ac

    the solutions govt suggested have all been stall walled by bureaucracy or met with controversial indifference to measures which will further progress the nations growth and economy.

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