Submitted by Tony (kite) Gibbs
The rapid deployment of PV in recent times has taken many by surprise. This is because its true potential has been consistently underestimated by policy makers, planners and industry participants alike. But while this is no longer the case, all we can now hope for is that industry stakeholders recognize the major challenges – technological, policy and regulatory – that must be overcome in building out a high level of intermittent renewable capacity.
In their August 8, 2013 ruling, the FTC determined that the distributed intermittent renewable energy generation shall be increased to seven megawatts. At the time of the ruling, there were two hundred PV customers connected to the grid, representing a total of 2.1 MW of capacity. In its long term resource plan, the Barbados Light and Power (BL&P) projected that the 7 MW capacity limit would be fully subscribed by January 2016.This projection was made in February 2014, but fewer than six months would elapse before BL&P informed customers that the approved capacity limit had almost been exhausted..
In BL&P’s plan, which was informed through broad consultations with stake-holders, the company made no further PV growth projections after January 2016. It therefore, came as no great surprise, that there was no further discussion about future of the Renewable Energy Program (RER) or how events would unfold after the 7 MW limit was met. That such omissions could escape the attention of the regulators is quite remarkable, especially since PV roof-top development is touted as an important element in meeting our energy security needs. More importantly, this approved resource plan claims to be the culmination of a process that “considers Barbados’ future power needs and identifies a future portfolio of power generating technologies”.
Regarding the identification of future power needs, there is something not very reassuring with a process that fails to recognize obvious near-term industry trends but purports to chart a certain path for long-term development. To remedy the planning oversight, and to give recognition to the tremendous demand for grid-tied installations, BL&P has now decided to conduct an Intermittent Penetration Study (IPS), which when completed will indicate what changes, if any, be made to the renewable energy limit. Procedurally, such a study should have taken place at the beginning of the planning process, not at the end of it. Had this chronology been followed, the planners would have been informed, far in advance, of the necessary operational and infrastructural grid changes required.
Notwithstanding these chronological shortcomings, and given the tremendous popularity of PV systems, many industry players are still hopeful that the IPS will show that there is still sufficient intermittent capacity left within the planned grid operations that could support the grid development. However, there is little evidence to support such optimism at this time. The reality is that solar PV plants can be deployed very rapidly. Much faster than the rate at which required operational and infrastructural changes can be adapted to reliably integrate it on a large-scale. At the same time, this rapid PV deployment is occurring on an ageing grid that was not designed for steep ramps and excessive cycling that a high PV penetration brings. This problem could be overcome either through utility-scale battery storage or by replacing the ageing generating plant with a new mix of highly responsive and flexible technologies to follow the load cost-effectively. Unfortunately, neither of these is likely to occur anytime soon. First, BL&P has indicated that battery storage is too costly and second the company’s approved resource plan is dominated with inflexible base-load plants that are not designed for, and are inconsistent with, large-scale intermittent deployment.
Putting aside the planning short-comings, the challenges that pertain to the integration of large-scale intermittent renewable energy are seen, for the most part, as technological and regulatory. But, while these are important areas of concern, so too is the lack of a clear policy mandate. This entire PV expansion process can only make sense, if it is driven by a clear policy directive that mandates the level of intermittent renewable energy necessary to support national development goals. Only then will the planners and regulators be able to determine the extent to which system elements require rebalancing and the economic impact of doing such. The characteristics of the system may have to be significantly altered as a result, but these changes must be seen to be responding to a clear policy directive.
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